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Tracking the 2013-2014 Peyton Manning collapse (1 Viewer)
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Oh hey look it's Jack Del Rio and the old Jags offense.
Moreno did his MJD imitation.
I don't think anyone saw this version coming.
Moreno did his MJD imitation.
I don't think anyone saw this version coming.
bostonfred
Footballguy
With the way Manning audibles at the line of scrimmage, if the Broncos looked like the Jags, it was because Manning was so afraid of looking like Blaine Gabbert that he pretended to be David Garrard.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
If I hear one more person cite the "records" of Brady and Manning in temperatures under X degrees, I might snap.
Even if you set aside how dumb it is to attribute team wins/losses to QBs, there's the fact that almost all cold-weather games are home games for Brady and road games for Manning. Brady's sample includes a bunch of December home games and some roadies against the likes of the Bills and Jets, who have been mostly awful for the bulk of his career. Manning's smaller sample is almost exclusively road games against quality competition (especially if you include playoff games).
It's piling dumb on top of dumb.
Even if you set aside how dumb it is to attribute team wins/losses to QBs, there's the fact that almost all cold-weather games are home games for Brady and road games for Manning. Brady's sample includes a bunch of December home games and some roadies against the likes of the Bills and Jets, who have been mostly awful for the bulk of his career. Manning's smaller sample is almost exclusively road games against quality competition (especially if you include playoff games).
It's piling dumb on top of dumb.
I'd say your average PHD statistician would disagree with you on sample sizes not being significant at this point.
Ignore it if you want. If you've watched the games over the years it's clear that Brady thrives in cold weather games and Manning does not.
Manning will have his chance (just like he just did). He will have home games in Denver. And unless he lucks out and it's unseasonable warm, he'll be playing in the cold.
And we all know where the super bowl is being held.
Good luck Manning.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Manning actually does have an outdoor home playoff game. He is 0-1 in the playoffs in Denver. His final play was an overtime interception that gave the ravens great field position and sealed his team's demise.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'd say the average Ph.D statistician would probably understand the importance of isolating other factors before doing a players vs. player comparison. Like home vs. road, or the performance of the other 45 players on the roster. Just a hunch.
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Don't mind bostonfred; he is the Shark Pool version of Skip Bayless: always has his facts straight, but spins them in a way to make his case look as good as possible.
Flipped around, this is me summing up the AFCCG from last year: the Ravens defeated the Patriots in New England when Tom Brady led the NE offense to 0 second half points and threw two 4th quarter interceptions. Those facts are dead accurate, but are incomplete. That is what bostonfred does, except flipped around.
Flipped around, this is me summing up the AFCCG from last year: the Ravens defeated the Patriots in New England when Tom Brady led the NE offense to 0 second half points and threw two 4th quarter interceptions. Those facts are dead accurate, but are incomplete. That is what bostonfred does, except flipped around.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
According to ESPN, Peyton Manning had the highest QBR in the NFL in games that were below freezing at kickoff (since 2006, at least, because that's how far back QBR currently goes).
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Yah, srsly.SRSLY!? How 'BOUT that!?
Narratives are fun, but they have a bad habit of simply ignoring any data points that don't fit.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Boy, way to crush all the troll fun.
wilked
Footballguy
The stat they quote is not 'below freezing', FYI. It is a different metric, 'cold weather', with a higher temperature threshhold...
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Bamac
Footballguy
Do you even WATCH football?Yah, srsly.SRSLY!? How 'BOUT that!?
Narratives are fun, but they have a bad habit of simply ignoring any data points that don't fit.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
40 degrees, not freezing.
G
General Tso
Guest
2-8 when below 32 degrees. That's all you need to know.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Gosh, didn't manning lead his team to a 4th quarter comeback when it counted last night? Didn't he throw a catchable ball to walker at the 32 yard line in ot? I guess it his fault that his team fumbled a punt? It was also Brady's greatness in overtime that caused Denver to fumble the punt. I blame Denver on just trying to sit on the lead and not really on a manning collapse
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Also, that was extreme weather last night because of the wind. The wind was more of an effect than the temperature.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
You're right, I missed that the first time around. The ESPN QBR stat includes all games that are below 40 at kickoff, not just those that are below 32.
Of course, the difference between 40 and 32 is small, and since it almost always gets colder as the game goes on, I don't find the distinction to be particularly meaningful.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
In their defense, they didn't really sit on the lead. It was 24-0 when the 2nd half began and this happened:
-NE went quickly down the field for a score.
-Denver was driving nicely, and then Montee Ball fumbled, giving the Patriots a short field, which they turned into another score, and bam, it's 24-14, and all of the momentum had shifted.
-Then, the Broncos were driving nicely again, when a breakdown on 3rd down led to a sack, which ended the drive.
-The Patriots then drive down again and make it 24-21.
So, the Broncos didn't really sit on the lead. That Ball fumble was infuriating, as the Broncos had a nice drive going to counteract NE's first drive of the 2nd half.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Does one game end the discussion? Honestly, I still think a strong argument can be made for either guy, so long as said person is capable of being objective and not letting their personal bias play into it. I have said for years that I think Brady is slightly better all-time than Peyton, but the arguments against Manning by Brady lovers are often so absurd and ridiculous that I often find myself arguing more in favor of Manning. But really, picking nits at either, just to prop the other one up, is rather silly. These are two of the greatest probably three or four quarterbacks ever, and we should enjoy watching them both play.BusterTBronco said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
They sat on the lead because belichick dared them to run and manning obliged. The pats had extra corners in and didn't stack the box. When Manning sees that coverage, he switches to a run. How many of the 48 running plays for denver do you think were called running plays? How many were audibles from the guy who prides himself on changing the call at the line of scrimmage? If you want to talk about the game plan being too conservative, talk about how manning went along with the patriots and audibled to run after run. He had plenty of opportunities to put the game away, but he didn't. And it cost them the game. As for brady, of course he didn't have anything to do with the punt. He also didn't have anything to do with ridleys fumble or blounts fumble early in the game. What he did have a lot to do with, though, was the greatest second half comeback in patriots history, throwing for over 300 yards and 3 tds, effectively doubling mannings output. After a nightmare first half, he led the patriots to td, td, td, td, fg on five straight second half drives with no margin for error despite throwing into the wind for most of it. He played lights out when it counted. The muffed punt wouldn't have happened if they hadn't gotten to overtime.
But you're right about one thing. Comparing mannings one td comeback to brady's. Basically the exact same thing, right? I mean, manning had to lead them to one game tying touchdown and he did. That's almost as good as reeling off five straight scoring drives to take a lead. But if manning was able to do that when he had to, then why didn't he accept the challenge earlier and put his foot on the patriots throat? How does a great qb let the patriots reel off 31 straight unanswered points without saying, you know what, screw this running thing. I'm calling my own number here and ending this little comeback bid. Why didn't manning do that? Because he was scared he would throw an interception. Which he did. And then he threw another one that was called back by penalty. That's the difference between these two players. Brady is relentlessly competitive to the end.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
One thing that was clear last night is that Brady throws a much better ball for wind conditions.
wilked
Footballguy
So if Peyton's stats are terrible in freezing conditions, and pretty good in 40 and below, I think that says he:
-Continues to play at a high level in chilly conditions
-Is terrible in freezing conditions
I am not sure this is news though
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
As a Brady fan, I have a hard time reading any post that denigrates Manning. Brady and Manning played a very close game last night, and to say the Manning choked or sucked or was fooled detracts from Brady's greatness. Manning is a HOF QB and this season is having a historical season. That only gives Brady more credit for beating him. This baloney about Manning being anything less than great just takes away from how fantastic Brady was last night. Manning goes to 10, Brady goes to 11.
moleculo
Footballguy
A couple things:Yah, srsly.SRSLY!? How 'BOUT that!?
Narratives are fun, but they have a bad habit of simply ignoring any data points that don't fit.
1. The data presented looks at 2006-now. I don't think that's appropriate, as the running narrative is that his nerve damage weakens the grip on the ball in colder weather, which is a relatively recent phenomenon. What Manning did in 2006 bears little significance to where he is today. Really, the only data points to consider are against a 2-14 team that had already given up (KC last year) and the losses to Baltimore and NE.
2. the eye-ball test - How many times yesterday did Manning throw the ball deep? How many nice, tight spirals did he push through the wind, 20 yards downfield? I can recall one stick throw - the TD to Tamme, and that was only 10, maybe 15 yards.
Here's the deal (IMO): Mannings nerve issue is worse in the cold. He doesn't throw tight spirals in ideal conditions, that only gets worse in the cold. add wind and hurt ankles, and Manning is unable to push the ball down-field. When the defense knows they don't have to worry about being beat deep, they can cheat up and compress the field. It's as if the entire field is "red-zone". Granted - Manning is still very good in a compressed field, but it's much tougher when you can't take the top off of the defense.
bostonfred
Footballguy
When Manning threw 4 INTs in Foxboro, then set an NFL record for touchdowns the following regular season, only to lead the Colts to 3 total points in Foxboro the following year, that was the nerve damage? If you mean he didn't have the nerve to win those games, I agree. [/cheapshot]
moleculo
Footballguy
similarly, one might ask how one can set an NFL record for TD passes only to lead his team to 14 points in his only post-season game outside of Foxboro, and then post a 49.1 QB rating in his next post-season game (which was in Foxboro).
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bostonfred
Footballguy
That's a good comparison. Brady took his team to a Superbowl for the fourth time, played better by any objective or subjective measure than Manning 2004, and led his team to a lead with less than two minutes in the game. Manning lost 20 to 3 in a game whose outcome was never really in doubt. Pretty much a perfect example, actually. Not sure how it helps your point though.moleculo said:
moleculo
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't think anyone would argue otherwise.
Of course, Peyton's performance last night, while not very good, was still better than two of Brady's on his own field this year:
-19 for 36, for 185 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, in a game where the Patriots D had to pick off a rookie QB three times in the 4th quarter to bail out Brady and his awful performance.
-13 for 22, for 116 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, in a win over the Dolphins in which Miami's collapse in the 3rd quarter was of epic proportions.
Dizzy
Footballguy
This gets over-looked (somehow)... Manning throws a notorious wobbler (even he admits to that). Works well enough in a dome and outside on "nice" days... but under conditions like last night the ball flight is very erratic.Baloney Sandwich said:
I'm sure I'll steam-rolled for suggesting this, but without that fumblefest in the 1st QTR the Broncos probably get blown out last night. And it's not so much Brady>Manning to me - although I believe it plays a huge roll - but I think Belichik has Manning's number. He dictates how Manning calls a game at the line of scrimmage... always has, always will.
I think it's pretty clear that over the last two games, with Brady getting his full compliment of weapons back and in sync, that the offense has gotten itself in shape.
This isn't a coincidence.
Now vs. the two games you mentioned are entirely different stories.
Let's cherry pick some data a little more now.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Belichick has his number? That might have been true early on, but since 2005, the team Manning played for has scored against the Patriots:
31 (l)
21 (l)
28 (l)
35 (w)
18 (w)
20 (l)
38 (w)
27 (w)
40 (w)
That is 29 PPG (28 PPG if you eliminate the defensive score from last night) and a 5-4 record for Manning's team.
And in those four losses, Manning's team allowed 24, 31, 31 and 34 points (30 PPG).
Bamac
Footballguy
Raw points don't tell the whole story, as the Pats typically play a fast-paced game (thus giving their opponents more possessions than in a typical game). But I do think the Belichick >> Peyton view is overly simple and ultimately wrong.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Right. I think Belichick generally does about the best job at slowing down the passing game when going against Peyton Manning, but let's face it, without Tom Brady as his QB, Belichick would not have a winning record against him.
Dizzy
Footballguy
OK, I stand corrected. I guess Manning just folds like a cheap suit outdoors late in the season.
His team did put up 31 last night so guess all these stats really do show the true picture. Not sure what the heck I was watching... I didn't think he played well at all but 31 points is 31 points.
All this stuff sounds a lot like the "Marino" argument.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
They're not terrible in freezing conditions, though. They're terrible at sub-20 temperatures, but that's a sample size of a single game. They're pretty strong above 20 degrees.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
How much of that was the cold, and how much of that was the 20mph winds? My eyeball test suggested that the cold was the reason everyone was dropping/fumbling the ball, while the wind was the reason Manning's accuracy sucked downfield. That suggests that Manning plays fine in the cold, but the wind is a problem.A couple things:Yah, srsly.SRSLY!? How 'BOUT that!?
Narratives are fun, but they have a bad habit of simply ignoring any data points that don't fit.
1. The data presented looks at 2006-now. I don't think that's appropriate, as the running narrative is that his nerve damage weakens the grip on the ball in colder weather, which is a relatively recent phenomenon. What Manning did in 2006 bears little significance to where he is today. Really, the only data points to consider are against a 2-14 team that had already given up (KC last year) and the losses to Baltimore and NE.
2. the eye-ball test - How many times yesterday did Manning throw the ball deep? How many nice, tight spirals did he push through the wind, 20 yards downfield? I can recall one stick throw - the TD to Tamme, and that was only 10, maybe 15 yards.
Here's the deal (IMO): Mannings nerve issue is worse in the cold. He doesn't throw tight spirals in ideal conditions, that only gets worse in the cold. add wind and hurt ankles, and Manning is unable to push the ball down-field. When the defense knows they don't have to worry about being beat deep, they can cheat up and compress the field. It's as if the entire field is "red-zone". Granted - Manning is still very good in a compressed field, but it's much tougher when you can't take the top off of the defense.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Don't know how you can credit the fumbles for being the reason Denver managed to stay in the game when New England recovered more than 50% of the fumbles. Denver got lucky and recovered each of the first 3, and then New England got lucky and recovered 6 of the next 8. IIRC, both teams scored 17 points off of turnovers, including the game-winning FG for New England.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
2 INT"s in 1Q in a big division game, oof.BusterTBronco said:
He was pretty bad at NE as well, this is not a good trend we're starting here, Mr. Manning.
19 for 36, 150 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT is Tannehill-esque production, even on the road in a big spot.
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moleculo
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think the Broncos will win the SB this year, as the defense is just too bad (26th in total defense, by far the worst of the teams that would currently be in the playoffs, nine of which are in the top 10 in defense).
I'm sure when they don't, it will be blamed on Peyton no matter how he plays in the game that knocks them out.
I'm sure when they don't, it will be blamed on Peyton no matter how he plays in the game that knocks them out.
Saint
Footballguy
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