Trade established players vs. Draft picks (1 Viewer)

[Let Them Eat Cheese]

I’m in a newly formed PPR Dynasty league that has just completed its first season. In the original draft there was a crazy run on RBs. I avoided the run and focused on WR, QB and then TE. Unfortunately, my best RB is Thomas Jones. I filed my other RB position with 3rd down backs and injury replacements. Now, I have a trade in the works for Jones, 1-12 and a 2-1 for Cedric Benson, Matt Ryan and a 2-12. BTW, my QBs are Brady and Warner, hence the need for a QB2 like Ryan. Is this a fair trade? Does the value of these established players offset the potential talent of the 1-12 and 2-1 picks?

MP

 

[KellysHeroes]

Threads that are asking for advice on how you should draft or manage your team belong in The Assistant Coach forum.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'm not going to answer your question... but I will address the subject.

Some of the most successful Owners I have in my leagues have rarely made a 1st round pick... they almost always trade the pick away.

The Value of Draft picks are crazy, and the draft is a gamble; many times I rather trade my pick for player that has 4 years of good production.

Sometimes you trade a stud away, I freaking traded away the pick that was used on Chris Johnson in one league. But I have also drafted high profile rookies that are barely startable.

 

[Go Pack]

As mentioned, this should be on the help board, but yes I think it is a solid trade for you.

 

[D'OHtis]

I’m in a newly formed PPR Dynasty league that has just completed its first season. In the original draft there was a crazy run on RBs. I avoided the run and focused on WR, QB and then TE. Unfortunately, my best RB is Thomas Jones. I filed my other RB position with 3rd down backs and injury replacements. Now, I have a trade in the works for Jones, 1-12 and a 2-1 for Cedric Benson, Matt Ryan and a 2-12. BTW, my QBs are Brady and Warner, hence the need for a QB2 like Ryan. Is this a fair trade? Does the value of these established players offset the potential talent of the 1-12 and 2-1 picks?MP

Jones, 1.12 & 2.1 for Benson, Ryan, 2.12.....Seriously that deal has been offer to you?!?!Wouldn't deal Ryan alone for that package.

 

[Mister CIA]

I'm not going to answer your question... but I will address the subject.

Some of the most successful Owners I have in my leagues have rarely made a 1st round pick... they almost always trade the pick away.

The Value of Draft picks are crazy, and the draft is a gamble; many times I rather trade my pick for player that has 4 years of good production.

Sometimes you trade a stud away, I freaking traded away the pick that was used on Chris Johnson in one league. But I have also drafted high profile rookies that are barely startable.

1.12 expectations get no love in trade talks I've found that the most successful owners in my leagues are the ones that draft well (and possibly often) with picks between #6 overall and #15 ... Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and MJD are prime examples. (I'd wager that owners who overvalued one of CJ, Rice or MJD were as likely to overvalue the other two, too)... Shonn Greene, DeSean Jackson, Steve Slaton, etc. as well........and this is as it should be. One way or another, somebody will (typically) identify rookie talent better than their league mates and rise to the top... or you could luck into a one-sided trade.

 

[jwb]

I'm not going to answer your question... but I will address the subject.

Some of the most successful Owners I have in my leagues have rarely made a 1st round pick... they almost always trade the pick away.

The Value of Draft picks are crazy, and the draft is a gamble; many times I rather trade my pick for player that has 4 years of good production.

Sometimes you trade a stud away, I freaking traded away the pick that was used on Chris Johnson in one league. But I have also drafted high profile rookies that are barely startable.

1.12 expectations get no love in trade talks I've found that the most successful owners in my leagues are the ones that draft well (and possibly often) with picks between #6 overall and #15 ... Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and MJD are prime examples. (I'd wager that owners who overvalued one of CJ, Rice or MJD were as likely to overvalue the other two, too)... Shonn Greene, DeSean Jackson, Steve Slaton, etc. as well........and this is as it should be. One way or another, somebody will (typically) identify rookie talent better than their league mates and rise to the top... or you could luck into a one-sided trade.

To be honest, I somewhat disagree with this. It's been my experience that the rookie draft is very predictable - there are very few outliers. Did anyone take CJ3 with 1.02 the year he came out? Or Ray Rice? I sure haven't heard of it. I would guess that generally, the guy who ended up drafting CJ3 (Rice / DJax / etc) was more lucky rather than a studious draft shark. I mean, how many guys with 1.11 - 1.14 last year took Robiskie because that's what the consensus said? And how many correctly ID'd Johnny Knox or Mike Wallace and took them instead?

 

[Bri]

what will the rookie get you in points this year? next? How about the vet?

Do you have a nice mix of now players and also players for the future?

 

[thriftyrocker]

I've found that the most successful owners in my leagues are the ones that draft well (and possibly often) with picks between #6 overall and #15 ... Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and MJD are prime examples. (I'd wager that owners who overvalued one of CJ, Rice or MJD were as likely to overvalue the other two, too)... Shonn Greene, DeSean Jackson, Steve Slaton, etc. as well........and this is as it should be. One way or another, somebody will (typically) identify rookie talent better than their league mates and rise to the top... or you could luck into a one-sided trade.

To be honest, I somewhat disagree with this. It's been my experience that the rookie draft is very predictable - there are very few outliers. Did anyone take CJ3 with 1.02 the year he came out? Or Ray Rice? I sure haven't heard of it. I would guess that generally, the guy who ended up drafting CJ3 (Rice / DJax / etc) was more lucky rather than a studious draft shark. I mean, how many guys with 1.11 - 1.14 last year took Robiskie because that's what the consensus said? And how many correctly ID'd Johnny Knox or Mike Wallace and took them instead?

A lot of owners do rely on rankings too much. Really, if you're drafting in May or June, it's hard to say a dynasty player should know more than the NFL GMs did. If an NFL GM says Iglesias is a couple rounds better than Knox, who are we to argue. Pretty sure Iglesias went higher than Knox in every league I am in (although Knox got drafted in most due to his 40 time and the opportunity). I think easy choices in the 1st half of the first turn a bad team into a good team and the subtle choices in the 2nd half of the first are what turn a playoff team into a championship team. A good player should have known that Britt was a better choice than Robiskie. A good player should have seen the great talent/opportunity pairing coming for Greene. A good player would have stashed Charles at the end of the 1st in 08 (this choice at 1.11 in 08 won me 1 league last year). On the other end, even a naive owner who had Chris Johnson fall into their lap at pick 5 or 6 in 08 had a good chance to win their league last year.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I've found that the most successful owners in my leagues are the ones that draft well (and possibly often) with picks between #6 overall and #15 ... Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and MJD are prime examples. (I'd wager that owners who overvalued one of CJ, Rice or MJD were as likely to overvalue the other two, too)... Shonn Greene, DeSean Jackson, Steve Slaton, etc. as well........and this is as it should be. One way or another, somebody will (typically) identify rookie talent better than their league mates and rise to the top... or you could luck into a one-sided trade.

To be honest, I somewhat disagree with this. It's been my experience that the rookie draft is very predictable - there are very few outliers. Did anyone take CJ3 with 1.02 the year he came out? Or Ray Rice? I sure haven't heard of it. I would guess that generally, the guy who ended up drafting CJ3 (Rice / DJax / etc) was more lucky rather than a studious draft shark. I mean, how many guys with 1.11 - 1.14 last year took Robiskie because that's what the consensus said? And how many correctly ID'd Johnny Knox or Mike Wallace and took them instead?

A lot of owners do rely on rankings too much. Really, if you're drafting in May or June, it's hard to say a dynasty player should know more than the NFL GMs did. If an NFL GM says Iglesias is a couple rounds better than Knox, who are we to argue. Pretty sure Iglesias went higher than Knox in every league I am in (although Knox got drafted in most due to his 40 time and the opportunity). I think easy choices in the 1st half of the first turn a bad team into a good team and the subtle choices in the 2nd half of the first are what turn a playoff team into a championship team. A good player should have known that Britt was a better choice than Robiskie. A good player should have seen the great talent/opportunity pairing coming for Greene. A good player would have stashed Charles at the end of the 1st in 08 (this choice at 1.11 in 08 won me 1 league last year). On the other end, even a naive owner who had Chris Johnson fall into their lap at pick 5 or 6 in 08 had a good chance to win their league last year.

Hindsight always seems to be 20/20.

 

[jchap31]

Keys to dominating a dynasty league (after 9 years of winning teams):

1. Trade 1st round rookie /fa picks for proven 2nd-3rd year guys.

2. Do your research and hit on players with your later round picks.

3. Never have a "must have" rookie. Let someone else make that mistake.

4. Only draft your 1st rounder after all other options have been exhausted

5. Enjoy the cash!

 

[KellysHeroes]

Heres a Good little chart when you are comparing Picks to Vets

1.01 - 1.03 - hold incredible value; each one a little more than the other one. But honestly how many studs have these picks produced the past couple of years. Usually one of those Picks produces a Stud and its not always 1.01... while the other 2 are usually so so and disappointments. So you have a 33% of picking a stud or you can trade the pick away for good player, I rather trade it away to be honest with you and get a sure thing unless there a Rookie I really want.

1.04 - 1.08 - the values drops considerably after 1.03 and each pick just keeps going down by a lot. These are IMO the value rookie picks, especially 1.06 & 7... Your not going to get a good player straight up for any of these picks, they would have to be a throw in. I rather use these picks and take a chance on uncovering a stud or even a productive player compared to their trade value.

1.09 - beyond - these are the pick that I like to trade away and pick up a player that isn't a stud but is productive or a younger player that the fantasy world has given up on. A team thats rebuilding are good to target for these.

 

[phthalatemagic]

I'm not going to answer your question... but I will address the subject.Some of the most successful Owners I have in my leagues have rarely made a 1st round pick... they almost always trade the pick away.The Value of Draft picks are crazy, and the draft is a gamble; many times I rather trade my pick for player that has 4 years of good production.

I agree generally. Do you think McFadden is going to be worth the 1.08 this year? Fooling about, but I'd certainly rather take a shot at one of those second tier guys than McFadden.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'm not going to answer your question... but I will address the subject.

Some of the most successful Owners I have in my leagues have rarely made a 1st round pick... they almost always trade the pick away.

The Value of Draft picks are crazy, and the draft is a gamble; many times I rather trade my pick for player that has 4 years of good production.

I agree generally. Do you think McFadden is going to be worth the 1.08 this year?

OH YEAH!!!!!

 

[D'OHtis]

Heres a Good little chart when you are comparing Picks to Vets1.01 - 1.03 - hold incredible value; each one a little more than the other one. But honestly how many studs have these picks produced the past couple of years. Usually one of those Picks produces a Stud and its not always 1.01... while the other 2 are usually so so and disappointments. So you have a 33% of picking a stud or you can trade the pick away for good player, I rather trade it away to be honest with you and get a sure thing unless there a Rookie I really want.1.04 - 1.08 - the values drops considerably after 1.03 and each pick just keeps going down by a lot. These are IMO the value rookie picks, especially 1.06 & 7... Your not going to get a good player straight up for any of these picks, they would have to be a throw in. I rather use these picks and take a chance on uncovering a stud or even a productive player compared to their trade value.1.09 - beyond - these are the pick that I like to trade away and pick up a player that isn't a stud but is productive or a younger player that the fantasy world has given up on. A team thats rebuilding are good to target for these.

Good breakdown. That's exactly how I view this year's draft