Trade rumor that makes sense? (1 Viewer)

[Donnybrook]

Ok maybe just to me.

Jets | Team working to acquire CutlerWed, 26 Apr 2006 17:51:49 -0700Dave Hutchinson, of the Star-Ledger, reports the New York Jets are in discussions with the Baltimore Ravens to try to obtain Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler with the No. 13 overall draft choice, according to a person who has contact with several NFL teams. If Oregon DL Haloti Ngata is available for the Ravens at No. 13, the deal will be off. If Ngata is gone, the Ravens would trade the No. 13 overall pick to the Jets in exchange for the No. 29 overall pick and the No. 35 overall pick. The Jets would then take Cutler with the No. 13 draft choice. However, the deal would be dead if Cutler is not available.

If you believe in the draft pick value chart, then also looks like a fairly even trade. Ravens’ 13th pick = 1150 pointsJets’ 27th pick = 680 pointsJets’ 35th pick = 550 points total = 1230 pointsSide note: the Vikings could make Ravens a better offer if they were so inclinedVikings 17th = 950 pointsVikings 51st = 390 points Total = 1340 points

 

[-OZ-]

It makes perfect sense except Cutler probably won't be available.

 

[BlueOnion]

Linky Dinky - Vikings Trade Up Rumors

Foley said the Vikings use a numerical value chart to determine the worth of each selection in the draft. Three personnel directors and one league executive, who all spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid tampering rules, provided the Pioneer Press a look at what it would take for the Vikings to move up to different parts of the first round.

The New York Jets (fourth overall), Buffalo Bills (eighth), Cleveland Browns (12th), Baltimore Ravens (13th), Philadelphia Eagles (14th) and Denver Broncos (15th) are among the teams ahead of the Vikings that are rumored to be willing to trade their pick.

 

[Davej626]

Saturday can't come quick enough...

 

[UrBallsEL]

Does Cutler get by the Lions and the Cardinals?

Both the Jets and the Vikings should be talking to Detroit not Baltimore.

 

[Z-Dog]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler. Way I figure it, Jets offer NO the #4+#35 for #2. Though it is short on value based on the chart, NO might be inclined to take it b/c they're basicallly guaranteed Ferguson or Williams at #4 anyway. The Jets would then select Leinert. If NO declines, and TENN takes Young, Leinert will be waiting for the Jets at #4. If Leinert isn't there, the Jets take Williams or Ferguson, and wait to see what happens with the QBs. Should Cutler fall, the Jets will trade #29+#35 to select him If Cutler doesn't fall, expect the jets to tke a QB at #35.

 

[Kiddnets]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler. Way I figure it, Jets offer NO the #4+#35 for #2. Though it is short on value based on the chart, NO might be inclined to take it b/c they're basicallly guaranteed Ferguson or Williams at #4 anyway. The Jets would then select Leinert. If NO declines, and TENN takes Young, Leinert will be waiting for the Jets at #4. If Leinert isn't there, the Jets take Williams or Ferguson, and wait to see what happens with the QBs. Should Cutler fall, the Jets will trade #29+#35 to select him If Cutler doesn't fall, expect the jets to tke a QB at #35.

I think the JEts should definitelty not trade up - there is a good chance Leinart falls into their lap or they grab Brick at #4 and do the trade up with the Ravens for Cutler if he falls. A Brick/Cutler combo would make a fantastic draft and start to a new regime!

 

[msommer]

Saturday can't come quick enough...

it never can...

 

[RnR]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

 

[cws3030]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler. Way I figure it, Jets offer NO the #4+#35 for #2. Though it is short on value based on the chart, NO might be inclined to take it b/c they're basicallly guaranteed Ferguson or Williams at #4 anyway. The Jets would then select Leinert. If NO declines, and TENN takes Young, Leinert will be waiting for the Jets at #4. If Leinert isn't there, the Jets take Williams or Ferguson, and wait to see what happens with the QBs. Should Cutler fall, the Jets will trade #29+#35 to select him If Cutler doesn't fall, expect the jets to tke a QB at #35.

I think the JEts should definitelty not trade up - there is a good chance Leinart falls into their lap or they grab Brick at #4 and do the trade up with the Ravens for Cutler if he falls. A Brick/Cutler combo would make a fantastic draft and start to a new regime!

I couldn't agree more

 

[Z-Dog]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

Tennessee could certainly move down with NYJ, but I don't think the Jets would offer them #35. The whole point of the exercies for NYJ is to get good or at least fair value from the #35. Going from 2 to 4 for just the #35 is 250 points of trade value in the Jets' favor. Going from 2 to 3 for the #35 is 150 points in TENN's favor. The Jets wouldn't offer it - not without getting say a 4th and 5th from TENN. The problem with the second trade-down is the value:

#4 = 1800. Oakland has #7 (1500) and #69 (245) = 1745. That suggests that Porter is worth 55 points, or a late 4th round pick. That is severely underestimating his value, imo. Also, wouldn't he be a fairly large cap hit for Oakland?

Also, nothing I'm hearing indicates that TENN would be happy with Cutler. I understand that they're pretty damp for Leinert or Young.

 

[Shrek]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

As a Jets fan, I hope this doesn't happen. What a waste of their draft after doing so much work to get the picks that they do have. IMO Leinart just isn't worth all of this finagling. The Jets should stay put where they are, with only the possibility of packaging the #29 and #35 together to move up in the first round. Packaging either of those picks with the #4 to move up is not worth anyone except Bush IMO.

 

[RnR]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

Tennessee could certainly move down with NYJ, but I don't think the Jets would offer them #35. The whole point of the exercies for NYJ is to get good or at least fair value from the #35. Going from 2 to 4 for just the #35 is 250 points of trade value in the Jets' favor. Going from 2 to 3 for the #35 is 150 points in TENN's favor. The Jets wouldn't offer it - not without getting say a 4th and 5th from TENN. The problem with the second trade-down is the value:

#4 = 1800. Oakland has #7 (1500) and #69 (245) = 1745. That suggests that Porter is worth 55 points, or a late 4th round pick. That is severely underestimating his value, imo. Also, wouldn't he be a fairly large cap hit for Oakland?

Also, nothing I'm hearing indicates that TENN would be happy with Cutler. I understand that they're pretty damp for Leinert or Young.

First of all, throw everything you said about "trade points" out of the window. If Leinart is who the Jets really want, and TEN is on the clock with all 3 QBs left on board.. you can be sure that TEN is going to want #35 if the Jets want them to trade the rights to Leinart. You do realize how silly you sound saying "this is all about points" and that the Jets would trade the #35 for the #2, but not the #3, even though they are taking the same damn player, don't you? They are trading for the player, not the pick. Also, TEN is very much interested in Cutler. Not at #3, but if they move down you can be sure that this is who they are targeting. Reese and Fisher have been very vocal at times about how impressed they are with Cutler.

Edit to add: The OAK trade down is not something I've been making up. It is in several threads around here about draft trade rumors. Apparently, OAK has offered TEN the #7 pick, their 3rd rounder, and Porter to move up to get their guy. I'm not sure if they'd be willing to do that anymore once Leinart is off the board, but TEN has the leverage because this would be OAK's only chance to grab Vince Young if that's who they want.

 

[Z-Dog]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

Tennessee could certainly move down with NYJ, but I don't think the Jets would offer them #35. The whole point of the exercies for NYJ is to get good or at least fair value from the #35. Going from 2 to 4 for just the #35 is 250 points of trade value in the Jets' favor. Going from 2 to 3 for the #35 is 150 points in TENN's favor. The Jets wouldn't offer it - not without getting say a 4th and 5th from TENN. The problem with the second trade-down is the value:

#4 = 1800. Oakland has #7 (1500) and #69 (245) = 1745. That suggests that Porter is worth 55 points, or a late 4th round pick. That is severely underestimating his value, imo. Also, wouldn't he be a fairly large cap hit for Oakland?

Also, nothing I'm hearing indicates that TENN would be happy with Cutler. I understand that they're pretty damp for Leinert or Young.

First of all, throw everything you said about "trade points" out of the window. If Leinart is who the Jets really want, and TEN is on the clock with all 3 QBs left on board.. you can be sure that TEN is going to want #35 if the Jets want them to trade the rights to Leinart. You do realize how silly you sound saying "this is all about points" and that the Jets would trade the #35 for the #2, but not the #3, even though they are taking the same damn player, don't you? They are trading for the player, not the pick. Also, TEN is very much interested in Cutler. Not at #3, but if they move down you can be sure that this is who they are targeting. Reese and Fisher have been very vocal at times about how impressed they are with Cutler.

Edit to add: The OAK trade down is not something I've been making up. It is in several threads around here about draft trade rumors. Apparently, OAK has offered TEN the #7 pick, their 3rd rounder, and Porter to move up to get their guy. I'm not sure if they'd be willing to do that anymore once Leinart is off the board, but TEN has the leverage because this would be OAK's only chance to grab Vince Young if that's who they want.

I don't think it's wise to discount the points charts, especially considering how well they describe nearly every draft trade made in the last 8 years or so that I've been closesly following the draft. It's particularly foolish to discount them when the Jets GM is known to be a system-style manager who is extremely disciplined about these sorts of things. Yeah, there's some give, and trades don't line up exactly, but it's a very good guide.The second mistake that you're making is you're not viewing the entire draft startegically, you're fixating on one aspect.

The Jets goals in this draft are relatively clear:

Select a QB of the future

Upgrade the O-line

Find a pass rusher

Find more suitable D-line and LB personnel for running a 3-4

Get another offensive weapon (whether RB, WR, or TE)

It seems to me that the Jets have realized that #35 is the key. They can use #35 to take one of the second-tier QBs. That means that with #4 and #29 they will address O-line, and either D-line or LB. But they really like both Leinert and Cutler. If Leinert can be had for just the #35, that's worthwhile - he might fall to them anyway, but it's worth the juice to ensure it. Once Tennessee is on the clock though, it's a game of poker. If Tennessee was truly in love with Leinert, they would just pick him at #3 and wouldn't be open to a trade. If they are not in love with Leinert, he will be there at #4 anyway, so why offer the #35? It doesn't appear that any of the teams that might move up are targetting Leinert either, so there's no need to outdo them.

As I see it, if Tennessee wants Leinert or Young, they can't trade down with anyone but the Jets. But if they want Leinert, they can't trade down with the Jets. And if they want Young, that means they would be willing to trade down, which means that the Jets wouldn't offer the #35 for it, b/c they know that Tennessee doesn't really want Leinert, and thus they will not offer an over-value trade.

Should the draft go more as expected, and the Jets get Fergie or Mario at #4, they then wait and see if Cutler is there at #13. If he is, they trade up for him. If not, they wait until #35 and draft a QB there.

That's a complete strategy which will allow them to address all of their needs. There are probably other parts to it (potentially trading down from #4 to #7, for example) but I think this is the heart of it.

Finally, there are lots of rumors. I've seen things I've made up showing up as rumors in other places. Nobody knows anything for sure. I'm just as blind as everyone else - I jsut write like I sound like I know something, but I don't.

 

[RnR]

It really depends on how much NYJ wants Leinart. If they are unable to move NO from the #2 spot, they'll be left at the mercy of TEN's decision. TEN isn't married to the idea of any of the 3, IMHO, so the conversation could very well go like this..

TEN: "We're going to take Leinart here, but we'd be willing to let you take a shot at him if the price is right."

NYJ: "You're bluffing."

TEN: "Are you willing to wait and find out? We've got Leinart #1 on our board here, but we'll move out of the way if you guys want him. Give us the #35 and we'll move down to #4, and Matt is yours."

NYJ: ??????????

It's all a matter of how much they want Matt. It is possible that they'll pass and take their chances that the Titans take Young, but my money is on them selecting Leinart if they can't get this move done.

 

[Birdie048]

I think the Jets are willing to pckage #35 with either o their first rounders to land either Leinert or Cutler.

So theoretically, if all 3 QBs are avaliable when TEN comes on the clock... TEN could move the #3 to NYJ for #4 and #35. NYJ selects Leinart, TEN on the clock again. TEN then moves #4 to OAK for #7, Porter, and 3rd rounder. OAK selects Vince Young. TEN moves back to #7 and takes Cutler, while acquiring a 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and Jerry Porter along the way?

TEN is in a very powerful position if some of these teams want Leinart/Young as much as they are claiming.

WOW... have not finished reading the thread, but this is a very strong position to be in... being able to take a choice of players and willing to trade out multiple times.... this would have the GM there due for a raise! Reality? Won't happen...(I am not saying it can't).... the other teams would rather suffer to some degree than allow Tenn to accumulate such power (and picks). They would have to make a pick.

We play the same way in FF...The idea of preventing a team in your league from getting a Stud when you really don't need him, but can not allow him to acquire him either. You take him first and trade him out later or hold him as value. You might suffer a bit, but you can make up most of the difference in the next round.

It really is an impressive idea though...

 

[Z-Dog]

It really depends on how much NYJ wants Leinart. If they are unable to move NO from the #2 spot, they'll be left at the mercy of TEN's decision. TEN isn't married to the idea of any of the 3, IMHO, so the conversation could very well go like this..

TEN: "We're going to take Leinart here, but we'd be willing to let you take a shot at him if the price is right."

NYJ: "You're bluffing."

TEN: "Are you willing to wait and find out? We've got Leinart #1 on our board here, but we'll move out of the way if you guys want him. Give us the #35 and we'll move down to #4, and Matt is yours."

NYJ: ??????????

It's all a matter of how much they want Matt. It is possible that they'll pass and take their chances that the Titans take Young, but my money is on them selecting Leinart if they can't get this move done.

True. My read on the Jets FO is that they are not married to any player. They are a system/value team, in which the decision-maker is a salary-cap guy, not a scout. I don't think the Jets want any player as much as they want to maximize the value of their picks. To your scenario: if Tenn is on the phone asking for #35, the Jets say no. I know it sounds odd, but I truly believe that the Jets will offer #35 to NO for Leinert, but will not offer it to TENN. If TENN is willing to kick back a 4th rounder, yes, but not straight for #35. Remember, just b/c you're willing to spend doesn't mean you want to get ripped off.

Btw, it may also have to do with who NO selects. Personally, I think the Jets are higher on Mario than on D'Brick, so if NO selects Brick, I think the Jets will definitely not trade with TENN, b/c if they take Leinert, NYJ gets Mario.

 

[norton17]

I think New Orleans should just do what everyone is saying TEN should.

Why doesn't New Orleans deal down from #2 to #4 and pick up the #35 pick.

Then deal the #4 pick to Oakland (or whoever lse covets Young), as long as New Orleans stays in the top 10.

Then the Saints should select the best defensive player avaialble at their pick, or possibly Ferguson if he's there.

 

[Z-Dog]

Saints probably want more than #35, but I'm sure that if they were willing to trade #2 for #4 and #35, the Jets would do it in a heartbeat.