Trade Talk (1 Viewer)

[Liquid Tension]

If you had the 3rd pick sitting overall (s Draft) would you trade that pick for the 13th and 16th overall pick? The trade Calculator says yes. But does trading away one of the 3 in a keeper league make sense? My thinking is yes, but do you agree?

Initial draft, 14 team league, 4 man keeper with 6 points for every TD, but standard scoring 1 pt-10 RB's, WR's TE's,and 1pt.-20 QB's. 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE and 1 D and 1 K.

 

[Musesboy]

I think I would rather have the top three pick. There aren't that many true studs and some picks in the 13-16 range can bust. It's unlikely that a top three player won't have value going forward.

It's easier to find a later pick that can climb into the top 16, than to find a pick at 13 or 16 that will end up in the top three.

So the separation that a top three player will likely give you should be worth it, and you gain a better quality keeper.

 

[Biabreakable]

Your gaining a 2 2nd round picks? Oh nevermind I see 14 teams. So a 1st and 2nd round pick for the 3rd pick overall?

Yes I would do that. 3 picks in the 2nd round still a very strong start and I could see such a trade down allowing you to trade down for extra picks again.

Now if there is some part of the deal I dont see here that could change things..

I dont think the pick calculator is as useful as looking at tiers of ranked players and who are the worst possible players you would be able to draft if you do the trade.

ETA- I think having higher quality of depth players is even more advantageous in a 14 team league where rosters are dispersed thinner than a 12 team league.

 

[Sweet Love]

I do not believe that the value calculator takes into account the prospect of keepers. At first glance, I would say not to do it, but at #3, chances are you will be left with Shaun Alexander. Although he may be great for you for a year or two, his # of carries will be up there in a year or so and he will begin to slow down.

If you stay at three and LJ and LT are gone, I would actually look at Portis as the #3.

If you decide to move down, you should be able to get a great young WR (Fitz, CJ) and maybe some one like Rudi would slip to you at #13.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I do not believe that the value calculator takes into account the prospect of keepers. At first glance, I would say not to do it, but at #3, chances are you will be left with Shaun Alexander. Although he may be great for you for a year or two, his # of carries will be up there in a year or so and he will begin to slow down.

If you stay at three and LJ and LT are gone, I would actually look at Portis as the #3.

If you decide to move down, you should be able to get a great young WR (Fitz, CJ) and maybe some one like Rudi would slip to you at #13.

Good thoughts folks. You guys are right in line with what my thinking is. The value is better to make the trade, but the tiers (a clean drop after 3rd/4th) makes we wary. In general I usually like to get value and tnen "work" with that. With 14 teams having 3 picks is probbaly worth doing, but I am curious everyone's take. Maybe I should start a poll? Can I add that to this?

 

[Liquid Tension]

Your gaining a 2 2nd round picks? Oh nevermind I see 14 teams. So a 1st and 2nd round pick for the 3rd pick overall?

Yes I would do that. 3 picks in the 2nd round still a very strong start and I could see such a trade down allowing you to trade down for extra picks again.

Now if there is some part of the deal I dont see here that could change things..

I dont think the pick calculator is as useful as looking at tiers of ranked players and who are the worst possible players you would be able to draft if you do the trade.

ETA- I think having higher quality of depth players is even more advantageous in a 14 team league where rosters are dispersed thinner than a 12 team league.

When I look at this I lose Shaun Alexander and I could pick up 2 of these guys, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Larry Fitz, Reggie Bush, Lamont etc... I am thinking Rudi and a WR for SA? I think that works for a 4 man keeper league?

 

[CalBear]

Two things to remember about the pick value calculator:

1) It doesn't know anything about the keeper prospects of the players in question.

2) The numbers are based on historical averages, not on the actual players involved.

I would look at some mocks and figure out what players you might get with those picks, and ask yourself, "Would I trade LT for <foo> and <bar>"?

 

[Liquid Tension]

Two things to remember about the pick value calculator:

1) It doesn't know anything about the keeper prospects of the players in question.

2) The numbers are based on historical averages, not on the actual players involved.

I would look at some mocks and figure out what players you might get with those picks, and ask yourself, "Would I trade LT for <foo> and <bar>"?

I wouldn't expect LT to be at #3? Isn't that "Fu" and "bar" ?

 

[CalBear]

Two things to remember about the pick value calculator:

1) It doesn't know anything about the keeper prospects of the players in question.

2) The numbers are based on historical averages, not on the actual players involved.

I would look at some mocks and figure out what players you might get with those picks, and ask yourself, "Would I trade LT for <foo> and <bar>"?

I wouldn't expect LT to be at #3? Isn't that "Fu" and "bar" ?

Depends if you're geek or not. (I'm a geek.)Well, figure out whoever you think you'll get at #3. If it's Alexander or Portis, would you trade them?

 

[Biabreakable]

Your gaining a 2 2nd round picks? Oh nevermind I see 14 teams. So a 1st and 2nd round pick for the 3rd pick overall?Yes I would do that. 3 picks in the 2nd round still a very strong start and I could see such a trade down allowing you to trade down for extra picks again.

Now if there is some part of the deal I dont see here that could change things..

I dont think the pick calculator is as useful as looking at tiers of ranked players and who are the worst possible players you would be able to draft if you do the trade.

ETA- I think having higher quality of depth players is even more advantageous in a 14 team league where rosters are dispersed thinner than a 12 team league.

When I look at this I lose Shaun Alexander and I could pick up 2 of these guys, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Larry Fitz, Reggie Bush, Lamont etc... I am thinking Rudi and a WR for SA? I think that works for a 4 man keeper league?

I would definitly take the trade.

1. You still get a 1st round pick at 13

2. Wrs are more valuable in a start 3 Wr/2 Rb league than a 2Wr/2Rb league. Thats a baseline of 42 Wrs instead of 28. Big difference.

3. You will have 3 good keeper players in the top 28 while other teams will only have 2 (and your trade partner only has one).

4. You still pick yet again at pick 31 giving you 4 players in the top 31 for your 4 keepers.

What are your top 31 players?

FBGs top 40 redraft:

1 RB Larry Johnson, KC 2 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3 RB Shaun Alexander, SEA

4 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

5 RB Tiki Barber, NYG

6 RB LaMont Jordan, OAK

7 RB Steven Jackson, STL

8 RB Ronnie Brown, MIA

9 RB Edgerrin James, ARI

10 RB Rudi Johnson, CIN

11 RB Cadillac Williams, TB

12 QB Peyton Manning, IND

13 WR Steve Smith, CAR

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Smith or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

14 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI

15 WR Chad Johnson, CIN

16 RB Domanick Davis, HOU

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get DD or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

17 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

18 WR Torry Holt, STL

19 RB Willis McGahee, BUF

20 WR Terrell Owens, DAL

21 WR Randy Moss, OAK

22 TE Antonio Gates, SD

23 WR Marvin Harrison, IND

24 RB Kevin Jones, DET

25 RB Willie Parker, PIT

26 WR Anquan Boldin, ARI

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Boldin or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

27 WR Darrell Jackson, SEA

28 RB Julius Jones, DAL

29 RB Reuben Droughns, CLE

30 WR Chris Chambers, MIA

31 RB Jamal Lewis, BAL

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Jamal or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

32 WR Hines Ward, PIT

33 WR Reggie Wayne, IND

34 RB Warrick Dunn, ATL

35 RB Chester Taylor, MIN

36 WR Donald Driver, GB

37 RB Reggie Bush, NO

38 TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG

39 WR Santana Moss, WAS

40 QB Tom Brady, NE

of course you can always reach down and take players you have ranked higher as well and use ADP to help your choices on that.

I would probobly try DD Gates Droughns Wayne knowing I can be flexible and take Rbs or Wrs if that fall to me.

28 Rbs will be taken quickly so I think you need to get at least one though. If Rudi or Edge fell to you at 13 that would be ideal. Relying on DD Westbrook McGahee Kevin Jones Parker.. all those guys could make you a bit nervous. I think you want to take the guy you consider most reliable to achor your team instead of going for upside. Your going to be a pick ahead of everyone else and can take players with upside later. Depends on your philosophy on risk/reward.

After making this trade if any other owner follows suit and offers you 2 picks in the 1st 5 rounds for one of your 4 picks in the top 31 I would consider building picks on this again. And dont forget to ask for rookie picks in 2007 as well.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Your gaining a 2 2nd round picks? Oh nevermind I see 14 teams. So a 1st and 2nd round pick for the 3rd pick overall?Yes I would do that. 3 picks in the 2nd round still a very strong start and I could see such a trade down allowing you to trade down for extra picks again.

Now if there is some part of the deal I dont see here that could change things..

I dont think the pick calculator is as useful as looking at tiers of ranked players and who are the worst possible players you would be able to draft if you do the trade.

ETA- I think having higher quality of depth players is even more advantageous in a 14 team league where rosters are dispersed thinner than a 12 team league.

When I look at this I lose Shaun Alexander and I could pick up 2 of these guys, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Larry Fitz, Reggie Bush, Lamont etc... I am thinking Rudi and a WR for SA? I think that works for a 4 man keeper league?

I would definitly take the trade.

1. You still get a 1st round pick at 13

2. Wrs are more valuable in a start 3 Wr/2 Rb league than a 2Wr/2Rb league. Thats a baseline of 42 Wrs instead of 28. Big difference.

3. You will have 3 good keeper players in the top 28 while other teams will only have 2 (and your trade partner only has one).

4. You still pick yet again at pick 31 giving you 4 players in the top 31 for your 4 keepers.

What are your top 31 players?

FBGs top 40 redraft:

1 RB Larry Johnson, KC 2 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3 RB Shaun Alexander, SEA

4 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

5 RB Tiki Barber, NYG

6 RB LaMont Jordan, OAK

7 RB Steven Jackson, STL

8 RB Ronnie Brown, MIA

9 RB Edgerrin James, ARI

10 RB Rudi Johnson, CIN

11 RB Cadillac Williams, TB

12 QB Peyton Manning, IND

13 WR Steve Smith, CAR

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Smith or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

14 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI

15 WR Chad Johnson, CIN

16 RB Domanick Davis, HOU

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get DD or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

17 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

18 WR Torry Holt, STL

19 RB Willis McGahee, BUF

20 WR Terrell Owens, DAL

21 WR Randy Moss, OAK

22 TE Antonio Gates, SD

23 WR Marvin Harrison, IND

24 RB Kevin Jones, DET

25 RB Willie Parker, PIT

26 WR Anquan Boldin, ARI

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Boldin or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

27 WR Darrell Jackson, SEA

28 RB Julius Jones, DAL

29 RB Reuben Droughns, CLE

30 WR Chris Chambers, MIA

31 RB Jamal Lewis, BAL

------------------------------------------- you can expect to get Jamal or any other player above him here if your opponents deviate.

32 WR Hines Ward, PIT

33 WR Reggie Wayne, IND

34 RB Warrick Dunn, ATL

35 RB Chester Taylor, MIN

36 WR Donald Driver, GB

37 RB Reggie Bush, NO

38 TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG

39 WR Santana Moss, WAS

40 QB Tom Brady, NE

of course you can always reach down and take players you have ranked higher as well and use ADP to help your choices on that.

I would probobly try DD Gates Droughns Wayne knowing I can be flexible and take Rbs or Wrs if that fall to me.

28 Rbs will be taken quickly so I think you need to get at least one though. If Rudi or Edge fell to you at 13 that would be ideal. Relying on DD Westbrook McGahee Kevin Jones Parker.. all those guys could make you a bit nervous. I think you want to take the guy you consider most reliable to achor your team instead of going for upside. Your going to be a pick ahead of everyone else and can take players with upside later. Depends on your philosophy on risk/reward.

After making this trade if any other owner follows suit and offers you 2 picks in the 1st 5 rounds for one of your 4 picks in the top 31 I would consider building picks on this again. And dont forget to ask for rookie picks in 2007 as well.

Thanks for taking the time here Biabreakable! I agree that it makes sense based on your analysis.

Does anyone know how much the pick calculator takes keepers into account? And if not how much vakue is there is getting a guy you know is a keeper for the next few years?