I'd like to quote post #13 from the "Beto" thread to illustrate the risk in valuing rookie picks too highly. The post was by our highly regarded Bloom, in March of '05 before that year's NFL draft:
1.05 is not a reach this year.
any of brown, caddy, benson, edwards or mike williams could end being a fantasy superstud, and all project to be above average fantasy starters at worst. i hate to say "cant miss", but these 5 have earned the label. honestly the 1.05 is not worth that much less than the 1.01 this year if you dont specifically need an RB.
See the statements I put in bold?After three seasons, where are we with these "can't miss" guys:
Ronnie Brown - Did OK in both 2005 and 2006 but wasn't dominating. FINALLY had a stud year going for 7 weeks in 2007 before injury put him on the shelf for the year. New coaching staff now, Ricky is coming back, and Ronnie has a serious injury to recover from, so it's hard to say how big a share of the load he'll get in 2008.
Cadillac Williams - decent rookie year, bust in 2006, hurt in 2007, future very cloudy due to severity of patella tendon injury.
Cedric Benson - minor player in 2005, more active in 2006 but still light duty, full role in 2007 was awful, then injured. Bears talking now about bringing in new blood in 2008.
Braylon Edwards - the stud of the group. OK for a rookie in 2005, nice advance in 2006, monster year in 2007. And yet, how many in need or greed passed on him to reach for 2nd round RB Eric Shelton, who was supposed to come in and take the job from Foster but was a complete washout? I know that a lot of people did.
Mike Williams - uh, yeah. Ouch.
OK, so among this "can't miss" group, we have one bona fide stud in Edwards if you had the patience to draft him instead of RB Shelton and wait for him to break out (remember, he was drafted onto an awful offensive team at the time with no stability at QB). Brown has had his moments but also has disappointed his owners. And the other three certainly are not players you would have wanted to trade top-30 veterans for. And of course Shelton, typically drafted 4th or 5th in rookie fantasy drafts that year (either ahead of or behind Edwards) was another complete disaster.
This isn't to knock Bloom at all. I respect him a lot, and we were all high on this group. Just look at where the NFL drafted these guys, all very high in the 1st round (and Shelton in the 2nd). But it is a cautionary tale, that trusting in rookie picks is a risky proposition.