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Trading into the top 2 is not difficult this year... three deals done (1 Viewer)

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
I see a decent tier-drop off at 1.5 this year (arguably at 1.3 or even 1.6, but certainly in the first half of the first round)... made three deals already this week:

16 team, 1/2/3/1 2 Flex, full IDP, salary cap contract. pt per 20 ret yds, .2 pt per comp/carry, 1157 cap, salary slots 60/50/50/40/40/40/35/35/35/30 rest of first. 20 in 2nd.

Gave up 1.7 and 2.7 for 1.2

With return yardage added, Austin and Patterson are elite prospects, and the .2 PPC helps bernard and bell's stock. Possible Bell or Hopkins would fall to 1.7, but being guaranteed one of austin or patterson or bernard is outstanding - RBs are a big premium in this league.

16 team 1/2/3/1 2 Flex salary cap, pt per 25 punt rtn yds 40 ko rtn yds, .2 per carry, 124 cap, salary slots 8/8/7/7/6/6/5/5/4 rest of first.

Gave up 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.1

Same logic... Austin/Patterson/Bernard a premium. scoring expands span bw top 3 and rest

12 team 1/1/1/1 w 3 RB/WR/TE flex PPR

Gave up 1.6 and 1.8 for 1.1/2.9

This league only starts 5 RB/WR per team in a 12 teamer, so again elite upside is emphasized. Felt a strong pull to get in top 2 for bernard/patterson...

Happy Hunting!

 
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Gave up 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.1 Same logic... Austin/Patterson/Bernard a premium. scoring expands span bw top 3 and rest
This is my first year in this league with you. Have to give you a ton of props for all the trades you've made so far.
 
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I think that those first two are both brutally bad trades for the team moving down.

I offered 1.05, 1.10, and 2014 1st for the 1.1 and was rejected. Was also rejected on 1.05/1.10 for 1.02.

ETA: 12-team non-ppr. Start qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/flex/te

 
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I see a decent tier-drop off at 1.5 this year (arguably at 1.3 or even 1.6, but certainly in the first half of the first round)... made three deals already this week:

16 team, 1/2/3/1 2 Flex, full IDP, salary cap contract. pt per 20 ret yds, .2 pt per comp/carry, 1157 cap, salary slots 60/50/50/40/40/40/35/35/35/30 rest of first. 20 in 2nd.

Gave up 1.7 and 2.7 for 1.2

With return yardage added, Austin and Patterson are elite prospects, and the .2 PPC helps bernard and bell's stock. Possible Bell or Hopkins would fall to 1.7, but being guaranteed one of austin or patterson or bernard is outstanding - RBs are a big premium in this league.

16 team 1/2/3/1 2 Flex salary cap, pt per 25 punt rtn yds 40 ko rtn yds, .2 per carry, 124 cap, salary slots 8/8/7/7/6/6/5/5/4 rest of first.

Gave up 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.1

Same logic... Austin/Patterson/Bernard a premium. scoring expands span bw top 3 and rest

12 team 1/1/1/1 w 3 RB/WR/TE flex PPR

Gave up 1.6 and 1.8 for 1.1/2.9

This league only starts 5 RB/WR per team in a 12 teamer, so again elite upside is emphasized. Felt a strong pull to get in top 2 for bernard/patterson...

Happy Hunting!
The first two trades are indeed borderline horrible, as the 1.01 would fetch much more than 1.07/2.07 or 1.10/1.13. The 1.06/1.08 is much more reasonable.

I would say that you somehow stumbled into two outlier situations where teams with the 1.01 just weren't convinced on a single player to take there and gave up the picks far too cheaply, not that it's easy to trade into the those high picks this year.

 
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Answer: Some NFL guy thinks this and he's smarter than all of us.Question: What is a weak fallback argument typically used on FBG when facts and reasonable arguments betray the point someone was trying to make?

Seriously, what's the point in even having this forum if we're just going to defer to the NFL guys (who are often wrong)? We may as well just rank rookies in the order they're drafted and current players in the order of their salary.

Besides, Fisher has coached 6 winning seasons in 17 years. It's not like we're talking about a guy that Bill Bellicheck traded up into the top of the 1st round to make his starting quarterback here. Not to mention that the primary reason Fisher chose St. Louis is because they were the only team willing to give him complete personnel control, which are words straight out of his mouth. I'm sure it being the highest monetary offer didn't hurt either.

 
I had a rookie draft start this morning and tried all I could to move up from the 1.08. No dice.

Rookie fever is here.

 
Have been trying to move the 1.02. Best offer so far has been Cecil Shorts. Turned it down as I would rather have Austin or Patterson.

 
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors

 
Allow me to show my ignorance: What is this "salary slots 60/50/50/40/40/40/35/35/35/30 rest of first. 20 in 2nd" Bloom speaks of? TIA

 
Appreciate the post. It is always good to see what is trending for upcoming rookie drafts.

My personal opinion on it, however, is that unless I am already outside the top 7, I have very little interest in moving up a few spots and I have no reservations to moving down a couple (maintaining I stay in that top 7). Even if I have a "need" at a position, I don't see the need to pay something to change myself from a Hopkins to a Patterson or a Bell to a Gio.

In a draft with no impervious players, why pay for your pick of poison? Sure, you may see the "upside and potential" of Patterson, but that may never be realized. So what do you actually have today? A guy like Hopkins or a guy like Patterson or a guy like Austin whose true value depends entirely on the Rams willingness to wear him out. I'll swallow my own kool-aid and get better value out of whatever I would need to pay someone to move.

 
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors
I agree with you. Clear top three to me, but as the poster above rejected my Shortts for 1.02 offer I'm on the outside looking in!
 
i tried to trade up for the 1.01 in one draft (from 1.07), but didn't want to over pay. Offered 1.07 and 2.07 and it was like I insulted the owner. I know the owner tried to shop the 1.01 in three different leagues and hasn't moved one yet. Don't know if he is overvaluing the pick thinking there is a clear stud or what. All I know is I still got my guy at 1.07 (Patterson) and used the 2.07 for Michaels.

YMMV

 
I moved out of the 1.1 for 1.5 and a 2014 first.

This is a great year to accumulate picks going into next year IMO. I don't get the Patterson love. Unpolished, some say dimwitted, receiver going to a rushing team with an inaccurate QB.

 
I gave up the 2.06 to move up from 1.05 to 1.04 when Bernard was still there.

I also got the 1.10, 2.12 and 2014 2nd for the 1.07.

People who want to trade down should wait until they're on the clock because they'll get better deals than these.

 
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I moved out of the 1.1 for 1.5 and a 2014 first.

This is a great year to accumulate picks going into next year IMO. I don't get the Patterson love. Unpolished, some say dimwitted, receiver going to a rushing team with an inaccurate QB.
Like I keep saying - he doesn't have to be Einstein to catch a football and even Ponder can throw a 5 yard pass.

 
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors
I agree they are in a separate tier. I feel there's a big drop-off at RB after Bernard. Less so at WR since I like Hopkins and Hunter.

Here are my tiers:

1-3 Austin, Patterson, Bernard

4-9 Hopkins, Hunter, Eifert, Bell, Lacy, Ball

10-12 Lattimore, Allen, Woods

 
CokeZero said:
Allow me to show my ignorance: What is this "salary slots 60/50/50/40/40/40/35/35/35/30 rest of first. 20 in 2nd" Bloom speaks of? TIA
It's a salary cap contract league, these are the salaries of the picks in the 1st round I made this trade with Sig, I'm of the thought there is a top 7 or 8 I'd be more than happy to own.
 
dewmass said:
James Brimacombe said:
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors
I agree with you. Clear top three to me, but as the poster above rejected my Shortts for 1.02 offer I'm on the outside looking in!
I just finished a writeup on the Jags and was pleasantly surprised by the numbers Shorts put up on the season. With Blackmon suspended the first four games and if Henne wins the starting job, Shorts could be in the mix for WR1/WR2 numbers

 
cstu said:
James Brimacombe said:
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors
I agree they are in a separate tier. I feel there's a big drop-off at RB after Bernard. Less so at WR since I like Hopkins and Hunter.

Here are my tiers:

1-3 Austin, Patterson, Bernard

4-9 Hopkins, Hunter, Eifert, Bell, Lacy, Ball

10-12 Lattimore, Allen, Woods
Similar for me as well

1-3 Bernard, Austin, Patterson

4-8 Hopkins, Lacy, Allen, Bell

9-12 Ball, Wheaton, Woods, Franklin

Then for fun tier 4

Geno, Kelce, Eifert, Manuel, Bailey

 
cstu said:
James Brimacombe said:
A lot of people are on board with the idea that picks 1-10ish are very similar and will move down rather easily (well at least in one league I am in). I am with Bloom that Bernard/Austin/Patterson are worth a little extra and are in a tier all by themselves. Good time to hit the iron while its hot because in a few weeks things will start to settle and values will show their true colors
I agree they are in a separate tier. I feel there's a big drop-off at RB after Bernard. Less so at WR since I like Hopkins and Hunter.

Here are my tiers:

1-3 Austin, Patterson, Bernard

4-9 Hopkins, Hunter, Eifert, Bell, Lacy, Ball

10-12 Lattimore, Allen, Woods
Similar for me as well

1-3 Bernard, Austin, Patterson

4-8 Hopkins, Lacy, Allen, Bell

9-12 Ball, Wheaton, Woods, Franklin

Then for fun tier 4

Geno, Kelce, Eifert, Manuel, Bailey
I thought about putting Wheaton in my third tier, he's close. Eifert's situation is a negative for the next couple years but I think he ends up replacing Gresham in 2015.

The 4th tier is interesting and there's about 10 guys I had jumbled up in there. I would definitely add in Christine Michael though since he's right outside my top 12 like Wheaton. If you have an early 2nd round pick I recommend trading down since there will be a similar caliber player still there.

 
Answer: Some NFL guy thinks this and he's smarter than all of us.Question: What is a weak fallback argument typically used on FBG when facts and reasonable arguments betray the point someone was trying to make? Seriously, what's the point in even having this forum if we're just going to defer to the NFL guys (who are often wrong)? We may as well just rank rookies in the order they're drafted and current players in the order of their salary. Besides, Fisher has coached 6 winning seasons in 17 years. It's not like we're talking about a guy that Bill Bellicheck traded up into the top of the 1st round to make his starting quarterback here. Not to mention that the primary reason Fisher chose St. Louis is because they were the only team willing to give him complete personnel control, which are words straight out of his mouth. I'm sure it being the highest monetary offer didn't hurt either.
Who are you arguing with and what are you arguing about?
 
Gave up 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.1

That's not happening in my leagues

Gave up 1.7 and 2.7 for 1.2

That probably isn't happening either for me

 
Gave up 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.1

That's not happening in my leagues

Gave up 1.7 and 2.7 for 1.2

That probably isn't happening either for me
Nobody I know with any past success at all deals picks 1 or 2 for that. Not one person

 
I guess I should get my flame suit on.

I agree with those above that I would rather have 1.06 and 1.08 over 1.1 and 2.9.

Hell, I'd probably consider the other one with two first round picks. I just don't think 1.01 is worth as much as in other years. To me, Bernard isn't like a T. Richardson or Adrian Peterson type player. I don't think any of the wrs are elite like Julio, AJ or Calvin. I'm not going to argue that Patterson and Austin aren't better than the rest this year at wr but compared to other years, I don't think they are as strong.

I'm not one of the people that feels this draft class sucks but I do think it has depth. I don't see a lot of difference between the top of the first and further back.

I'll use one league I'm in that's drafting now as an example.

I had 1.02 and 1.10. I got Patterson and Hunter. It wouldn't surprise me if Hunter ends up being better than Patterson. Wheaton went at 1.11, Woods at 1.15 and Allen at 1.16.

If you have a top two pick without trading into it, it means your team sucks compared to your league. Personally, I would take my chances with any of two out of Hunter, Wheaton, Allen and Woods and give you Austin, Patterson or Bernard at 1.01 or 1.02.

I liked Lacy, Franklin and C. Michael but the draft killed their values to me. I guess the top three rbs are now Bernard, Bell and Ball after the draft. I don't know. I just don't see any TRich or Doug Martin's in that group.

I know Bloom knows his stuff and I LOVE the Bloom 100 but I'd take my chances on two guys in the first over one of the top 3 this year. I'm sure this post will come back to haunt me if one of them blows up, but I just don't see the separation between the top and bottom of first round like I usually do.

 
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Answer: Some NFL guy thinks this and he's smarter than all of us.Question: What is a weak fallback argument typically used on FBG when facts and reasonable arguments betray the point someone was trying to make? Seriously, what's the point in even having this forum if we're just going to defer to the NFL guys (who are often wrong)? We may as well just rank rookies in the order they're drafted and current players in the order of their salary. Besides, Fisher has coached 6 winning seasons in 17 years. It's not like we're talking about a guy that Bill Bellicheck traded up into the top of the 1st round to make his starting quarterback here. Not to mention that the primary reason Fisher chose St. Louis is because they were the only team willing to give him complete personnel control, which are words straight out of his mouth. I'm sure it being the highest monetary offer didn't hurt either.
Who are you arguing with and what are you arguing about?
Someone in another thread. I have no idea how that post got into this thread instead of that one. It's probably a result of having like 12 tabs open, but I'm going to go ahead and blame it on the board upgrade :cool:

 
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Traded the 1.1 for 1.4 & 1.9
This is a deal I probably take 4/9......................but as I have said like 10 times now in various threads, dealing this top 1-2 picks is VERY dependent on WHEN your draft is. I dont remember a year where the top 3 picks could ALL be different if two drafts were held with one now, and one in early september.

 
Where are all the people who thought Austin was too small, Patterson too dim and raw, and Bernard too soft now? This is exactly what I expected to happen. People are talking themselves into these guys because of situation.

 
I would think that a FF expert like Sigmund Bloom would play in more challenging leagues. I couldn't get a trade like the first two done in my work league, much less a league with people who know what they are doing.

Even if you dont believe in any of the top few guys, trading them for the 1.07 and 2.07 is insane.

 
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I guess I should get my flame suit on.I agree with those above that I would rather have 1.06 and 1.08 over 1.1 and 2.9.Hell, I'd probably consider the other one with two first round picks. I just don't think 1.01 is worth as much as in other years. To me, Bernard isn't like a T. Richardson or Adrian Peterson type player. I don't think any of the wrs are elite like Julio, AJ or Calvin. I'm not going to argue that Patterson and Austin aren't better than the rest this year at wr but compared to other years, I don't think they are as strong.I'm not one of the people that feels this draft class sucks but I do think it has depth. I don't see a lot of difference between the top of the first and further back. I'll use one league I'm in that's drafting now as an example.I had 1.02 and 1.10. I got Patterson and Hunter. It wouldn't surprise me if Hunter ends up being better than Patterson. Wheaton went at 1.11, Woods at 1.15 and Allen at 1.16. If you have a top two pick without trading into it, it means your team sucks compared to your league. Personally, I would take my chances with any of two out of Hunter, Wheaton, Allen and Woods and give you Austin, Patterson or Bernard at 1.01 or 1.02. I liked Lacy, Franklin and C. Michael but the draft killed their values to me. I guess the top three rbs are now Bernard, Bell and Ball after the draft. I don't know. I just don't see any TRich or Doug Martin's in that group. I know Bloom knows his stuff and I LOVE the Bloom 100 but I'd take my chances on two guys in the first over one of the top 3 this year. I'm sure this post will come back to haunt me if one of them blows up, but I just don't see the separation between the top and bottom of first round like I usually do.
I believe you are right.

Its not that the talent in this draft is bad or weak, its just that its very comparable and does not stand out like a Julio or TRICH. I think that thought is supported by the fact that there is so much range in opinion on the players in drafts. People are seeing the talent very differently based on varibles such as landing spot, etc.

So, yes, I'm with you. I would trade away the 1.01 or 1.02 if I had it if someone was offering me a 4 and 9 or 5 and 8 or anything like that.

 
Where are all the people who thought Austin was too small, Patterson too dim and raw, and Bernard too soft now? This is exactly what I expected to happen. People are talking themselves into these guys because of situation.
Yesm they sure are. Seeing a lot of people talking players up and down based on these perceptions.

 
I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.

Austin I fear the size thing. I really do. Don't want him. He might be great. But I really just see a smaller Desean Jackson.

With Bernard I just think of what people said pre-draft about him...that he was soft. That isn't going to work well playing against the Ravens and Steelers twice a year. He's a smallish back who had and ACL already and was slowed by knee soreness last season that kept him out for two games. He had the top shuttle runs but didn't show a ton in the 40 or vertical leap. This does not sound like a Top 10 NFL player to me.

You have to work with what we have here at this point for early drafters. We have solid depth. So how do you take advantage of that? You slide back (slowly if possible) and take equivalent players later on. I mean, you might miss on them, but that might not even matter as you've mitigated the risk of that by stocking the cupboards for next year's draft.

Say you can drop down a few times from 1.1 to 2.1 and load two firsts into next season. I did exactly this. Now I have three firsts next season. Fast forward to November...my season is chugging along and BAM down goes Adrian Peterson. I scan the rosters and see that an owner who will certainly miss the playoffs has a very good RB that isn't helping him this year. I offer up 3 first round picks for this player (say Matt Forte or Reggie Bush). He goes for it and my season moves right along. I think this is the direction to go at this point.

And also you might his the jackpot, grab the better player at 2.1, and keep the picks. Get the 1,3,and 12 for next year and be looking at a Julio Jones type of guy.

 
I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.
FF is all about having top end FF starters, owning 1 WR1> owning 2 WR2's, etc. I don't ever see Woods/Hunter/Dobson as WR1 in FF. Furthermore, I've posted on my thoughts of Patterson, so i'll leave that where it is. However, what about two other late 1st round picks that had big boom/bust potential= Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. Injury/raw/off the field/etc, however both had great athletic ability and they've paid off for owners that selected them.

 
Replying to some recent posts:

1) My main reason for this thread is to encourage folks to make trade up offers to start the conversation because you might be surprised at what gets accepted. Maybe the specific offers I made won't get taken in your league, or you've already tried and ran into a brick wall - as some posting have. But if you haven't, it's good make a probe offer to see if the person holding 1.1-1.3 is lukewarm on the pick and just views this years draft as a crapshoot. with that logic, they will want more bullets, and you can close the deal quickly.

2) With respect to the quality of my leagues and trade partners, I'll say this. The two leagues that had lower offers get accepted are salary cap leagues with slotted rookie salaries. This requires more levels of analysis on values and more possible spread of values of commodities and strategies on how to best use them. I have found both of the leagues very challenging and competition very formidable. Before any of pan the people in those leagues that made those trades, I would try one of these leagues yourself.

3) On the 1.1/2.9 for 1.6/1.8.... 1) I was afraid, maybe unreasonably of Bell and Hopkins going 4/5 and being left with a choice of a GB RB or Allen and then having to reach for an upside play I like such as Lattimore. This is where I become like the folks that will trade out of the top 3 in exchange for more bullets. I would expect to see someone like Patton or Boyce at 2.9. The gap b/w Allen/Hunter/Woods and Boyce/Patton isn't nearly as big as the gap b/w Patterson/Austin/Bernard and GB RB/Allen imo. But y'all are right to focus in on this one as the truest yardstick of what it would take to move to 1.1.

 
My tiers this year are very different from mosts. I'm not that excited about Austin (especially) or Patterson. I do like all of the top RBs that landed in good spots, however. There is no great player this year, but there are several good players that landed in great spots.

I know the old adage in dyNASTY about talent over opportunity and I'm one of its biggest proponents, but I think people take that too far. Situation still matters. Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Alfred Morris are not elite backs. I'm sorry, but they're just not. They're good backs in great situations, and they made up 3 of the top 5 FF running backs last year while a guy like Jonathan Stewart continues to rot away.

When given the choice sure, I'll take the stud talent over the lesser talent in a good situation. But when we're talking about the RBs in the early 1st vs the late 1st and 2nd round we're talking about a couple 2nd round talents in great situations vs. 5th round talents in mediocre situations. There is a big difference there. It's going to be difficult for a guy like Bell to not have some measure of success and as we all know, when a guy with some measure of success at RB is 21 years old he'll hold a lot of value at this time next year.

People have been trying to scoop up any undrafted free agent or late round pick that GB/Pit bring in at running back for years. Folks have just been drooling over the idea of them actually spending something to acquire one. Now both have invested 2nd round picks in them and people are suddenly trying to talk themselves out of it so they can come on a message board and thump their chests about how they value talent over opportunity because they're elite dynasty owners.

Don't overthink it. After clamoring for years to get their hands on an early picked RB in GB/Pit people are now willing to just give that away in exchange for some uber-longshot 2nd round or late first round pick? Madness.

 
I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.

Austin I fear the size thing. I really do. Don't want him. He might be great. But I really just see a smaller Desean Jackson.

With Bernard I just think of what people said pre-draft about him...that he was soft. That isn't going to work well playing against the Ravens and Steelers twice a year. He's a smallish back who had and ACL already and was slowed by knee soreness last season that kept him out for two games. He had the top shuttle runs but didn't show a ton in the 40 or vertical leap. This does not sound like a Top 10 NFL player to me.

You have to work with what we have here at this point for early drafters. We have solid depth. So how do you take advantage of that? You slide back (slowly if possible) and take equivalent players later on. I mean, you might miss on them, but that might not even matter as you've mitigated the risk of that by stocking the cupboards for next year's draft.

Say you can drop down a few times from 1.1 to 2.1 and load two firsts into next season. I did exactly this. Now I have three firsts next season. Fast forward to November...my season is chugging along and BAM down goes Adrian Peterson. I scan the rosters and see that an owner who will certainly miss the playoffs has a very good RB that isn't helping him this year. I offer up 3 first round picks for this player (say Matt Forte or Reggie Bush). He goes for it and my season moves right along. I think this is the direction to go at this point.

And also you might his the jackpot, grab the better player at 2.1, and keep the picks. Get the 1,3,and 12 for next year and be looking at a Julio Jones type of guy.
I think two 2014 firsts is a decent haul. I wouldn't do it personally, but it's a fair shake and could easily work out better in the long run depending on the quality of the teams those were acquired from.

That said, there's no way in the world I'd move 1.01 this year and a 2014 first for Reggie Bush, which is essentially what you'd be doing if you traded those three first round picks for Bush midseason.

 
My tiers this year are very different from mosts. I'm not that excited about Austin (especially) or Patterson. I do like all of the top RBs that landed in good spots, however. There is no great player this year, but there are several good players that landed in great spots.

I know the old adage in dyNASTY about talent over opportunity and I'm one of its biggest proponents, but I think people take that too far. Situation still matters. Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Alfred Morris are not elite backs. I'm sorry, but they're just not. They're good backs in great situations, and they made up 3 of the top 5 FF running backs last year while a guy like Jonathan Stewart continues to rot away.

When given the choice sure, I'll take the stud talent over the lesser talent in a good situation. But when we're talking about the RBs in the early 1st vs the late 1st and 2nd round we're talking about a couple 2nd round talents in great situations vs. 5th round talents in mediocre situations. There is a big difference there. It's going to be difficult for a guy like Bell to not have some measure of success and as we all know, when a guy with some measure of success at RB is 21 years old he'll hold a lot of value at this time next year.

People have been trying to scoop up any undrafted free agent or late round pick that GB/Pit bring in at running back for years. Folks have just been drooling over the idea of them actually spending something to acquire one. Now both have invested 2nd round picks in them and people are suddenly trying to talk themselves out of it so they can come on a message board and thump their chests about how they value talent over opportunity because they're elite dynasty owners.

Don't overthink it. After clamoring for years to get their hands on an early picked RB in GB/Pit people are now willing to just give that away in exchange for some uber-longshot 2nd round or late first round pick? Madness.
I really like your overall message but there is something to talk about in the part I highlighted.

I think what makes this year a bit unique is that this isn't the typical year where you are looking at TRICH in the top of the first and taking a swing at I. Pead in the 2nd. This year, the "good" guys fell into the better situations but the RBs with the real potential fell to the bad situations, short-term.

I think that turns this draft on its ear because there are people out there (and I might be one of them) that are now looking at this draft saying "you know what, Lattimore and Michael look better to me 10-12 spots later than Lacy or Patterson up higher, relatively speaking to price you would pay.

I mean, think about it: when is the last time in a dynasty draft where you can honestly say that 15 or so picks in, you are still seeing REAL opportunity for players right away? Last year at the bottom of the first, you were looking atHillman, Pead, Quick, Randle. Two years ago, those guys were Vareen, Hunter, Cobb, and Baldwin.

Look at the common theme that is usually presented: Players you can definitely see upside in but almost always are blocked for immediate production. Cobb, we kinda knew; it was a matter of time and he is more like what people thing of Micahel and Lattimore and those types. It has a chance and will take some patience. But look at all these other players. They are nothing like the guys from past years in terms of immediate opportunity. Woods, Allen, Hunter, Wheaton, Franklin, etc. It appears ALL these guys could be playing right away.

I think it makes for a very balanced draft where the owners who understand that there is value in getting away from the old thinking that the top picks are worth cvastly more than the lower ones, will benefit.

 
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Traded the 1.1 for 1.4 & 1.9
This is a deal I probably take 4/9......................but as I have said like 10 times now in various threads, dealing this top 1-2 picks is VERY dependent on WHEN your draft is. I dont remember a year where the top 3 picks could ALL be different if two drafts were held with one now, and one in early september.
Agree 100%. If I had 1.01 in a draft now, I've already stated I would move it for two first rounders.

But my local dynasty league I do with my buddies we always hold our rookie draft after the last preseason game and before the start of the season. I expect it to be a lot different because then we can see these guys in action.

That's when you just pray the guys you are targeting don't go off in the preseason.

 
You all keep trading up, with my 1.05 and 1.06 (2 different leagues) I'll be perfectly happy to take a Bell/Ball/Lacy guy there and a quality receiver in the middle 2nd. I just hope Markus Wheaton is available in the middle 2nd.

 
This year, the "good" guys fell into the better situations but the RBs with the real potential fell to the bad situations, short-term.
I disagree here. Most people's lists this year started with Lacy and moved on to Bernard, Ball, Bell, Franklin, and Michael. Four out of six landing in situations with immediate opportunity (and immediate opportunity in a great spot for several of them) is much higher than most years. Not to mention that the two that didn't land in spots with a chance to start right away were the ones that most people had on the bottom of that list anyway.

I mean, think about it: when is the last time in a dynasty draft where you can honestly say that 15 or so picks in, you are still seeing REAL opportunity for players...But look at all these other players. They are nothing like the guys from past years in terms of immediate opportunity. Woods, Allen, Hunter, Wheaton, Franklin, etc. It appears ALL these guys could be playing right away.
I think there is some serious revisionist history/hindsight going on here. This year looks absolutely no different to me than previous years in that respect. There are always late round picks on teams that have a need there, you just remember their situation differently because they never panned out. The difference is that, unlike early round picks (and at WR, even early round picks are included), these types of guys fail to pan out by never seeing the field, not by getting on it and failing.2012: Stephen Hill, Brian Quick, AJ Jenkins, Alshon Jeffrey, Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Broyles2011: Jonathan Baldwin, Shane Vereen, Delone Carter, Leonard Hankerson, Vincent Brown, Titus Young, Alex Green, Jonathan Baldwin, Kyle Rudolph2010: Golden Tate, Dexter McCluster, Damien Williams, Brandon LaFell, Arrelious Benn, Mardy Gilyard, James Starks, Emmanuel Sanders

All of those guys above were drafted into situations similar to or better than the one you're talking about being available in the late 1st/early 2nd of this year's draft. WRs drafted to teams that badly needed a WR2 or even a WR1. That happens every year and most of them just fade away.

 
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I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.
FF is all about having top end FF starters, owning 1 WR1> owning 2 WR2's, etc. I don't ever see Woods/Hunter/Dobson as WR1 in FF. Furthermore, I've posted on my thoughts of Patterson, so i'll leave that where it is. However, what about two other late 1st round picks that had big boom/bust potential= Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. Injury/raw/off the field/etc, however both had great athletic ability and they've paid off for owners that selected them.
I don't ever see Austin being a WR1 either. I certainly don't think Bernard or Patterson are good bets to become Ray Rice and Percy Harvin respectively.

 
I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.

Austin I fear the size thing. I really do. Don't want him. He might be great. But I really just see a smaller Desean Jackson.

With Bernard I just think of what people said pre-draft about him...that he was soft. That isn't going to work well playing against the Ravens and Steelers twice a year. He's a smallish back who had and ACL already and was slowed by knee soreness last season that kept him out for two games. He had the top shuttle runs but didn't show a ton in the 40 or vertical leap. This does not sound like a Top 10 NFL player to me.

You have to work with what we have here at this point for early drafters. We have solid depth. So how do you take advantage of that? You slide back (slowly if possible) and take equivalent players later on. I mean, you might miss on them, but that might not even matter as you've mitigated the risk of that by stocking the cupboards for next year's draft.

Say you can drop down a few times from 1.1 to 2.1 and load two firsts into next season. I did exactly this. Now I have three firsts next season. Fast forward to November...my season is chugging along and BAM down goes Adrian Peterson. I scan the rosters and see that an owner who will certainly miss the playoffs has a very good RB that isn't helping him this year. I offer up 3 first round picks for this player (say Matt Forte or Reggie Bush). He goes for it and my season moves right along. I think this is the direction to go at this point.

And also you might his the jackpot, grab the better player at 2.1, and keep the picks. Get the 1,3,and 12 for next year and be looking at a Julio Jones type of guy.
I think two 2014 firsts is a decent haul. I wouldn't do it personally, but it's a fair shake and could easily work out better in the long run depending on the quality of the teams those were acquired from.

That said, there's no way in the world I'd move 1.01 this year and a 2014 first for Reggie Bush, which is essentially what you'd be doing if you traded those three first round picks for Bush midseason.
Don't forget the 2.1 this year as part of that haul. Basically like trading Tavon Austin or Gio Bernard for Robert Woods or Eddie Lacy and two 2014 firsts.

 
I own the 1.3 and I am actively trying to trade out of it right now. I really don't want it. I am looking to move to around 10 and load a 1st into next season. I don't really see much difference between Patterson and Dobson as far as what we can expect for FF. Both are very different and nobody really knows what they will be used like. Both have great upside. Both are high (but not super high) draft picks.

Patterson could be Percy Harvin, or he could be Devin Hester. The bust potential is real. I'm all about mitigating that kind of risk by sliding back, hedging it with another pick and casting my lot with a Hunter, Woods, or Dobson - all players that were within a round of Patterson. All seem safer bets and can be had at a deep discount compared to Patterson.
FF is all about having top end FF starters, owning 1 WR1> owning 2 WR2's, etc. I don't ever see Woods/Hunter/Dobson as WR1 in FF. Furthermore, I've posted on my thoughts of Patterson, so i'll leave that where it is. However, what about two other late 1st round picks that had big boom/bust potential= Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. Injury/raw/off the field/etc, however both had great athletic ability and they've paid off for owners that selected them.
I don't ever see Austin being a WR1 either. I certainly don't think Bernard or Patterson are good bets to become Ray Rice and Percy Harvin respectively.
Patterson is the only one with a shot IMO. I don't think grabbing Aaron Dobson's of the world will ever equal a FF championship. Now the 2014 1sts, I agree (if they're high) because that class has some great prospects. However, you also have to calculate in the loss of one year of production into the value.

 

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