I wrote an article on this in 04 that was one of the winners in the article contest that year. I'm pretty sure you can't find it on this site anymore, so I'll post it below.
The Art of Trading Down
Unlike other aspects of Fantasy football, trading is an art, not a science. Why trade down and not up? It is a simple question of real value vs. perceived value. Other owners predominately value high picks more than they are worth and mid-round picks less than they are worth.
Real Value vs. Perceived Value
When dealing picks, one must know both their real value, and the perceived value to other FF owners. How is this done? The real value of a pick may easily be ascertained by assigning it a number coinciding with what that pick might bring in FF points over the course of a season or, if you prefer the VBD method, that pick’s VBD value. The perceived value is harder to find. Obviously, the top 3 or so picks will bring a premium. There are definitely owners who will overpay for high picks, they just have to be identified. Notify all other owners personally and let them know you are interested in moving your 1st rounder – don’t just post this on your site or send a blanket e-mail, and do not make them any specific offers . . . yet. You should be able to judge who perceives your pick as worthy of trading for by the responses.
Prepare
Pay attention to trades every year. Who trades up? Who trades down? Who overpays to trade up? It is definitely beneficial to negotiate with multiple owners at the same time for the same pick. You’ll find out who is serious in a hurry. Also, have your homework done. Have a VBD spreadsheet or a point projection done even if it is very early.
Probe
You’ve sent your feeler out letting the other owners know your high pick is on the table. You probably have responses like “whadda ya want for it?” or some totally absurd offers. No problem. Now, make them throw you a reasonable offer first. This might take multiple tries. Sending responses like “not quite good enough, come a little harder on the back end” or I’ve gotta have something better than your 3rd rounder to start with, throw your 2nd in the mix and get back to me” is a way to counter without tipping your hand or giving specifics.
Propose
Finally, after you have some serious offers on the table, counter offer. This is a good time to talk in person. If you’ve been communicating electronically, get face to face with the other owner at this point (better yet, get him drunk . . . or at least drunker than you). Now, here are a few goals to keep in mind when countering. It is all common sense, but often gets forgotten in the heat of negotiation.
1. Get out of the draft early. If you can get more picks in a trade than they do, especially for starting players, you'll be ahead. In other words, if you're picking your 3rd WR and 5th starter at the top of the 4th round when everybody else is picking their 1st or 2nd WR and they only have 3 or 4 starters, you'll be ahead. Get your "big 5" (3WRs -if you start 3 and 2RBs) drafted before anyone else even has 5 players.
2. Leverage the back end. I've had guys tell me during trade talks that the 8th round means nothing. I've even had guys tell me that the 6th round means nothing to them. What? These guys are owners I thought knew their stuff. This can be learned when you are trying to find perceived value. Many owners overvalue high picks and undervalue mid-round picks. If you almost have a deal done, but it's not quite sweet enough, make a switch on the back end. Offer something like your 11th round for their 8th to "seal the deal". Hell, I've done this when I would have already taken their offer and it has worked.
3. Deal for value. If the other owner is not like I mentioned in #2 above and actually appreciates later picks, then go to #1 above and get ahead of the draft. NOW you can offer your later picks as they are not of as much value to you. That is to say, if you are picking your 10th player in the 8th round, that 8th rounder is of less value to you than it is to him picking his 6th player. Why not try to get a 4th or 5th for an 8th, 9th, and the last 2 rounds since these actually have NO value to you whatsoever because your roster is already going to be full before these picks even come to you.
How Far Down?
Trading out of the first completely is the best way to get value for your first round pick. There are owners who will froth at the mouth when thinking of the prospect of having two top 5 or even two top 10 picks (especially the stud RB theorists). Where is the best place to fall? As a general rule, I like the 17th-27th pick range. Annually, these are the best value picks as these are usually players who have great upside, but have fallen out of the first round. Look at your VBD for groups of players with like numbers and try to get in on the tail end. Identify players who will likely be in the top 10 in overall scoring and maximize the value of your picks. Be advised, it takes discipline to watch stud after stud fall off the board on draft day. If you’ve done your homework, you’ll be fine. If you’ve leveraged perceived value vs. real value and negotiated a great deal, you’ll be on your way to a cakewalk through your league.
analyzing trades is qualitative, not quantitative.
