Trading rookie draft picks... (1 Viewer)

[Lord of the Rings]

When do you think is the best time to try and trade rookie picks for veteran players, before or after the NFL draft? Or does it really matter to you?Seems to me that being patient until after the draft would be best, because then you would know where everyone lands, etc. Although that could be a negative as well, if talented players land in bad situations.At the same time, those teams in your league that didn't finish very well, might be looking to add picks early on in the offseason, since the wounds are still fresh.In your experience do rookie picks (1st and 2nd round mainly) go up in value closer to and after the NFL draft or does the value stay pretty much the same?Basically, any thought or comments on trading rookie picks would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

 

[Patoons]

I would definitely say increased value around/post NFL draft.

 

[nightshift]

YES!We know what teams the rookie studs have landed on and now we each add our $.02 as armchair quarterbacks to create the next "LT2", or "Culpepper" or "Randy Moss".

 

[Keys Myaths]

I would definitely say increased value around/post NFL draft.

This is the correct answer, not just because you can see how the rookie draft will bear out (and trade accordingly), but also because the closer you get to your rookie draft, the higher the value of the picks.Look at it this way...Do you give any value to a 2009 first rounder right now? Not really. Next year? Yeah, a little...the year after? Yeah...especially if you're rebuilding. January 2009? A lot. April 2009? A ton.

Right now, everyone's either taking a short break in order to relax through the playoffs, or they're trying to determine the future for their team.

Once everyone figures out where they stand, they'll be more willing to trade, and therefore, your pick's value will be higher.

 

[coolnerd]

IMO, the best time to acquire rookie picks is probably during the fantasy season when guys are more concerned with making runs at the playoffs, etc. The best time to dump picks (get veteran players) is either just before the draft or during the draft (no different than the real guys). People get in the have to have mode once the clock starts ticking.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Well, it kinda depends on which teams draft certain players. Example: in my league last year, rookie draft picks were worth WAY more prior to the draft, because owners were hoping that teams like Indy & Seattle would draft a RB. When guys like Marion Barber, Eric Shelton, and Ciatrick Fason went into possible RBBC roles, that dropped their value. So if you think that the 4 most likely stud RBs this year (Bush, White, Williams Maroney) and 2 QBs will be drafted into perfect spots -- then wait 'til after the draft. Personally, I think it's likely that 2 of the 4 RBs go to an offense with possible RBBC. In which case, the value of rookie picks will peak just prior to the draft.Unless you have a keeper/dynasty league that is friendly toward rookies (e.g. allows you to keep rookies 1-2 years "free of charge") then there is almost no point in drafting a QB or WR.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

IMO, the best time to acquire rookie picks is probably during the fantasy season when guys are more concerned with making runs at the playoffs, etc.

The best time to dump picks (get veteran players) is either just before the draft or during the draft (no different than the real guys). People get in the have to have mode once the clock starts ticking.

Great point - trying to acquire rookie picks 1 year early is a good strategy. I've picked up 2 first-rounders for 2007 already, including one from a team that will probably have a top-3 pick next year.

 

[-OZ-]

It probably depends on the pick.Off hand, last year a lot of people predicted the top 3 RBs to hit great spots and Edwards and MWilliams to hit Minnesota or another good spot, the top 5 picks were pretty valuable. The top 2 maintained their value, but at least IMO the 3, 4, and 5 spot lost a little. The 6-9 gained value after the draft, as most later picks probably did as well.I would wait until the hype gets full blown, around the combine or close to the draft, but don't pass on a great offer just because you expect Maroney and Williams to land in Indy and Seattle - chances are they won't.

 

[-OZ-]

IMO, the best time to acquire rookie picks is probably during the fantasy season when guys are more concerned with making runs at the playoffs, etc.

I generally agree with this statement, but it depends on a lot of variables.I acquired 3 2006 1sts last year, but ended up trading them all during the year, this wasn't the plan, but IMO it worked out. I wasn't gunning for the playoffs in this league either. It just happened that other teams looked to rebuild after falling out of the race and made good offers.

Just to illustrate, the 2 deals where I gave 3 1sts:

1. pick 1.05, Bruschi for Ben Roethlisberger, Takeo Spikes (I did need a QB, but still a trade I make today)

2. Two late 1sts (13 and 15) a 3rd and 5th for J Vilma, Lee Evans, and an early 2nd (#19 overall).

Overall that's 5, 14, 15 and 2 later picks for Roethlisberger, Vilma, Evans, and #19. (consider Buschi/Spikes a wash)

All this to just say - take value when it presents itself.

 

[noneother]

I traded my only pick for the next 2 years for Darius Howard based on Blooms posting.. but we even draft High School Guys, I am sittin on Reggie, Darius, Adrian Peterson, Chris Wells, and Noel Devine, I have Deuce, Gado and Caddy... I am ok with no picks for awhile...

 

[-OZ-]

I traded my only pick for the next 2 years for Darius Howard based on Blooms posting.. but we even draft High School Guys, I am sittin on Reggie, Darius, Adrian Peterson, Chris Wells, and Noel Devine, I have Deuce, Gado and Caddy... I am ok with no picks for awhile...

Well at least you have Gado to start for you.

 

[noneother]

I traded my only pick for the next 2 years for Darius Howard based on Blooms posting.. but we even draft High School Guys, I am sittin on Reggie, Darius, Adrian Peterson, Chris Wells, and Noel Devine, I have Deuce, Gado and Caddy... I am ok with no picks for awhile...

Well at least you have Gado to start for you.

yes, there a young bunch

 

[Arnold. S]

best time is definitly the weeks leading up to the draft. It's all about player hype, when Mel Kiper's doing his thing on ESPN and mock drafts are flying around everywhere, it's time to unload those picks.

 

[Riffraff]

Best time to buy rookie picks:August (when training camp is through and people see most of their picks will not even see the field and they still have high hopes that their team will not suck) through November (when people give away draft picks to make that play-off run) Best times to sell rookie picks:February (when rookie fever is getting to it's highest) through June (people still think their drafting skills are good).

 

[coolnerd]

IMO, the best time to acquire rookie picks is probably during the fantasy season when guys are more concerned with making runs at the playoffs, etc.

I generally agree with this statement, but it depends on a lot of variables.I acquired 3 2006 1sts last year, but ended up trading them all during the year, this wasn't the plan, but IMO it worked out. I wasn't gunning for the playoffs in this league either. It just happened that other teams looked to rebuild after falling out of the race and made good offers.

Just to illustrate, the 2 deals where I gave 3 1sts:

1. pick 1.05, Bruschi for Ben Roethlisberger, Takeo Spikes (I did need a QB, but still a trade I make today)

2. Two late 1sts (13 and 15) a 3rd and 5th for J Vilma, Lee Evans, and an early 2nd (#19 overall).

Overall that's 5, 14, 15 and 2 later picks for Roethlisberger, Vilma, Evans, and #19. (consider Buschi/Spikes a wash)

All this to just say - take value when it presents itself.

Not doubting this, I was speaking generally. I can think an example or two where i have similiar success contradicting the norm.

 

[-OZ-]

Not doubting this, I was speaking genrally. I can think an example or two where i have similiar success contradicting the norm.

That's part of the beauty of being a contrarian. Sell when others look to buy, buy when others want to sell. This tends to be league specific, but as a general rule, you, Riffraff and others are spot on.

 

[Weiner Dog]

best time is definitly the weeks leading up to the draft. It's all about player hype, when Mel Kiper's doing his thing on ESPN and mock drafts are flying around everywhere, it's time to unload those picks.

I agree. Plus, FFers are already assuming guys like DeAngelo Williams, Laurence Maroney, Lendale White, Matt Lienhart, Mario Williams, AJ Hawk, Santonio Holmes, Vernon Davis, etc will be starting as rookies......which may very well not be the case.

I think the best example of players landing in odd situations was the '04 draft. Some of the top players landed in some weird situations:

1. SJax in pass-happy StL offense behind Faulk

2. Chris Perry backing-up (and still backing-up) Rudi

3. P Rivers napping (and still napping) behind Brees

4. W Smith behind Grant and Howard

5. Losman behind Bledsoe

etc

Trade the picks when everybody assumes every good player will land in a great situation.

 

[Finatic]

best time is definitly the weeks leading up to the draft.  It's all about player hype, when Mel Kiper's doing his thing on ESPN and mock drafts are flying around everywhere, it's time to unload those picks.

I agree. Plus, FFers are already assuming guys like DeAngelo Williams, Laurence Maroney, Lendale White, Matt Lienhart, Mario Williams, AJ Hawk, Santonio Holmes, Vernon Davis, etc will be starting as rookies......which may very well not be the case.

I think the best example of players landing in odd situations was the '04 draft. Some of the top players landed in some weird situations:

1. SJax in pass-happy StL offense behind Faulk

2. Chris Perry backing-up (and still backing-up) Rudi

3. P Rivers napping (and still napping) behind Brees

4. W Smith behind Grant and Howard

5. Losman behind Bledsoe

etc

Trade the picks when everybody assumes every good player will land in a great situation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

IMO, the best time to acquire rookie picks is probably during the fantasy season when guys are more concerned with making runs at the playoffs, etc.

The best time to dump picks (get veteran players) is either just before the draft or during the draft (no different than the real guys). People get in the have to have mode once the clock starts ticking.

I must have passed out and logged on under the handle coolnerd in my sleep and posted this because this is exactly what I was going to say.Towards the early/middle of the season I went in on a 3-way deal that sent me the first round picks of two teams that I thought would finish poorly (one had a weak team and the other a killer schedule). Those picks ended up being 1.01 and 1.02, so I basically ended up with the top two rookie picks in exchange for Benson and pick 1.07.

Likewise, I also agree with the statement that trading the picks around the NFL/rookie draft is the best time for reasons beyond seeing whether the guys ended up in good/bad situations. The biggest thing in the offseason is the rookie draft, and everyone wants to be that guy sitting towards the top of the draft deciding what future stud they want on their team. People just want to be involved, and want to be the guy that everyone is watching and waiting for.