Translating ADP to Price (1 Viewer)

[Lord Fantasy]

While I pity their limited choices and lack of control over their fantasy destinies, in some ways snake drafters have it made. If you're picking tenth you're not getting Peterson. Period. Building your team around him is a non-issue.

We auction leaguers don't have that luxury (or that burden). We can do whatever we want. For better or for worse, we often do.

As a result, pricing (and by extension value) can be all over the map. Since players get called "out of order" you can't use the wealth of Average Draft Position information to compare/contrast players. Also, when the draft is done you often find that players fall in price clusters rather than follow the smooth gradient you see on most cheat sheets.

With these specific challenges in mind I'm throwing out the following discussion questions to the Shark Pool. Please feel free to answer or add your own.

1. Can you (or should you) try to translate ADP to price?

2. Do you continue to make distinctions between a WR1, a WR2 and a WR3 when you're free to buy a three-pack of high-end or even elite receivers?

3. What does it mean to ranked as 25th overall when players get picked out of order? In other words, how do you compare value across positions?

4. Are you looking for more upside or more stability in your "late round" picks now that you have more control over who you land?

5. Given this year's depth at RB, what is the auction draft equivalent of "waiting" on your RB2?

I'll chime in later, but for now

 

[Ack88]

My auction league is in it's 12th year. Here are a few things to think about. While by no means is this list exhaustive, it may give you some ideas.

1. Think of ADP as a baseline. It's likely that the players at the top of the draft will also cost the most money, however, this is not exact. Be prepared to overpay for the very elite starters. In fact, in order to field a championship team, you HAVE to overpay at least once or twice. You are better off, IMO, getting the second or third player in the top tier. For example, ADP will probably command the most money. Get an MJD/Forte type soon after, You'll pay less. By the time the true lead RBs get to the last two or three available players, guys will have to overpay, for fear of losing out. That early third of the elite players is often the "sweet spot" for value.

2. Don't wait to long to spend your money. The guys who wait find themselves with lots of money to spend on middle of the road players.

3. Keep a running list of every owner. How much money do they have? What positions do they have to fill? Knowing this will help guide you...you will know when to push and when to pull back.

4. Only spend the minimum on K and Defense.

5. Spend 85-90% on your starting lineup. You can use waivers during the season.

6. The order that the players are nominated are important. make sure you nominate a mixture of guys you want and guys you don't...this way no one can read you.

7. Be very deliberate. Don't jump into bidding too quickly...don't let people know who you have interest in, and yes...make some bids on guys you DONT want...just don't go too high.

Just my 2 cents. Hope this helps.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Thanks for the reply, Ack. I'm putting away the as apparently this isn't going to be the blockbuster thread I imagined.

In any case, I like your idea about 85% of the cap on starters. That's what I did last year and ended up with a division-winning (but sadly not championship) team.

I also agree you'll need to overpay for the elite. For me this means trying to corner the market on Top-10 WRs. I'm in a start three league with low performance scoring so there is a huge drop off even from WR10 to WR15.

I also think that Dollar Days is going to be chock full of RBs this year.

 

[sweetness34]

Cooley, this is a great topic - no worries.

I'll tell you what I'm doing this year (it is, by no means, an original idea or anything.) Maybe someone smarter than me can point out the flaws in my logic, but I think it is fairly solid. Also, our auction is in its 6 or 7th year, so historical data plays a big role. I decided to only use the last 3 years worth of auction pricing from our past drafts. I averaged the last 3 yrs worth of prices, giving more weight to last year's prices and then pasted a 2009 ADP chart in with those values. Now, I feel like I have a decent handle on the real value of a player in my league - based on historical average. I can then adjust a specific players value up or down, but I know I'm within $5 or so. This may not be exactly what you were looking for, but it might give you some other ideas...

 

[Knobs]

There's a great auction advice thread floating around here somewhere...

 

[Terpfan]

In last year's Perfect Auction article, Dodds mentioned something called a "VBD auction curve". I can only presume this is something that allows you to translate ADP to auction values in your league. Anyone else heard of such a curve and where we can find it?

 

[pollardsvision]

I usually just turn the projections (over a baseline) into a dollar figure.

I'm not sure there's a precise way to turn way to turn ADP into a dollar figure.

I've found, no matter how I prepare, my auction comes down to how well I can predict what my teammates might do (and how well I adjust when I'm inevitably wrong). Predicting where a player might go in a snake draft is far different than predicting how much your leaguemates might bid on a certain player, I think.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

There's a great auction advice thread floating around here somewhere...

There's lots of threads that cover the basics, but I was hoping to start a deeper conversation.But on further thought maybe that's my mistake. Maybe there is no deeper conversation about an auction. If you're generally informed and prepared then by nature the format is going to allow you to take advantage of that knowledge and preparation.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

I think this is a great topic. The science of estimating auction values.After 5+ years of auctions (keeper and redraft) I've merged various strategies for values.1. Prior to DD (discussed below) like many others I used spreadsheets and formulas to allocate salary cap by pos, adjusting b/w starters/bench. Determining baselines for each pos it's pretty easy to then allocate fantasy points over a baseline using a formula - i.e. allocate VBD. Remember to factor in the estimated # of bench min sal type players typically drafted ($1).Always test your calculations to ensure they are reasonable i.e. everything adds up to the league wide cap.2. Building on #1 I have included Ave Auction Values (AAV) from my league's history over the past 5 years. Combining 1 & 2 ususally gives me a great base to calc est sals.3. Draft Dominator - DD auction settings - great tool for managing an auction IF YOU CAN KEEP UP! Note if you are new to fast paced auctions i.e. on ESPN then you have no idea how fast they go in the last 3rd of picks. DD is great to keep track of franchise cap, max bid, pos requirements etc. but more often than not you fall behind worrying about finding the last couple picks to enter into DD than focusing on your next targeted player. Just my experience. Further on DD for auctions - it's a great tool but only if you configure it correctly. a. use auction settings on main setup of course - ensure min bid, cap, etc.b. baseline use the auction settings optionc. base calcs - options - advanced and confusing but basically help with the slope of the sals from top to bottom starter.d. auction csv - advanced settings but important imo to get those top tier players projected where you 'think' they will go.After everything is said and done - the auction comes down to experience, flexibility and being prepared. Go in with a plan but be prepared to adapt on the fly.Every auction has some unique twist or lesson to be learned.

... our auction is in its 6 or 7th year, so historical data plays a big role. I decided to only use the last 3 years worth of auction pricing from our past drafts. I averaged the last 3 yrs worth of prices, giving more weight to last year's prices and then pasted a 2009 ADP chart in with those values. Now, I feel like I have a decent handle on the real value of a player in my league - based on historical average. I can then adjust a specific players value up or down, but I know I'm within $5 or so. This may not be exactly what you were looking for, but it might give you some other ideas...

 

[Ack88]

Another point to keep in mind: know how your league scores. For example, in my auction league qb td passes are worth only 3 points. This devalues QBs. If you are in a ppr, adjust accordingly, as the elite receivers will command more money. If you have time, do your own projections. This helps to really quantify who you like and who you are less keen on. It will help you sort through how you truly value players. Also keep in mind your values relative to the other owners in your league and widespread consensus. You will find some variation and can adjust accordingly.

 

[TeamDingo]

Cooley, this is a great topic - no worries.I'll tell you what I'm doing this year (it is, by no means, an original idea or anything.) Maybe someone smarter than me can point out the flaws in my logic, but I think it is fairly solid. Also, our auction is in its 6 or 7th year, so historical data plays a big role. I decided to only use the last 3 years worth of auction pricing from our past drafts. I averaged the last 3 yrs worth of prices, giving more weight to last year's prices and then pasted a 2009 ADP chart in with those values. Now, I feel like I have a decent handle on the real value of a player in my league - based on historical average. I can then adjust a specific players value up or down, but I know I'm within $5 or so. This may not be exactly what you were looking for, but it might give you some other ideas...

This is exactly what I do. Overlay historical data with ADP and adjust for individuals that I think will go for a premium/discount over their projected numbers and create lists of Estimated Auction Values for my league.

 

[scientist]

In last year's Perfect Auction article, Dodds mentioned something called a "VBD auction curve". I can only presume this is something that allows you to translate ADP to auction values in your league. Anyone else heard of such a curve and where we can find it?

I don't remember how "VBD auction curve" was used in his article, but if you look at the VBD app or Draft Dominator with auction enabled, you'll see what he means. If you're basing your projected auction values on VBD, there is a very steep curve in prices as you scan down each positional bucket. It basically leaves all of the true sleepers and backups with minimum value, no matter your salary cap. For example, whether your cap is $100 or $500, a player that is not (practically) guaranteed to start in a fantasy lineup each week will still have a projected value of $1 (or right around whatever your minimum bid amount is). Meanwhile, the projected values for the top prospects at each position keep increasing. Play around with the inputs to see this in action - change the cap, roster sizes, lineup requirements, etc. just to see what happens.Auction values that DD and the VBD app crank out are very useful for helping you determine how much a player should be worth to you, but not in predicting how much other owners will spend on players. Which I think is where this thread was supposed to be headed in talking about predicting auction values based on ADP rather than VBD.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Be flexible.

Elite talent goes for well above "book value" in my leagues.

We start 2 RBs & 4 WR/TEs.

I always pay up to get one elite RB and one Top 10 WR.

I have seen successful teams go all out for 4 stud WRs and get sloppy seconds on RBs.

I never spend on a top QB. Brady for $45 or a tandem of Garrard/Schuab for $20.

Play "defense" (i.e., bid up other players, not risk free)

Try to save some end game $$ to be a "player" when it comes time for "sleepers" (understanding that in a decent league there are at least 3 other owners who like all of your sleepers as well, but hopefully 2 of them are broke)

I never use a computer or DD. A tiered list of players is all I use and a list of bye weeks.

I won one of my 2 auction leagues last year which means that I also have to "run the board" (be the auctioneer) -- this is more challenging but easier for football than it is for baseball.

 

[Snot Bubbler]

I created a spreadsheet based on Trembley's "Auction Pricing" article a few years back.

There's also some good content here http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=auction

 

[Captain Hook]

ADP = Average DRAFT position has Nothing to do with auction prices

AAV = Average Auction values may be interesting but ONLY if the scoring, league size, lineup requirements and total # roster slots are identical to YOUR league

Auction prices should be based on PROJECTIONS

I don't use Draft Dominator but likely it does a very good job as mentioned above, and even if you don't use it during the draft (best is to have a partner there to do that), the pricing guidelines it should customize for YOUR league should be very valuable......as a guideline only

 

[Lord Fantasy]

This is only our third year as an auction league (and I'm very new to FF in general) so I don't have the benefit of historical data.

I do know that in the past the other owners were very much in a snake draft frame of mind. They'd overpay for their RB1 and WR1, then scale down the money and talent in a way that felt familiar to them.

I had success because I went cheap on QBs (Cutler & Rodgers for $8 combined), cheap on RBs (Forte, D. Will, CJ3 for $21 combined) and spent big on my WRs (Fitz, Wayne and Marshall for $110 combined). (This is non-PPR, $200 cap, low performance scoring.)

This year I have a feeling people are going to wake up a little. I see prices coming down over all as people realize they are spending too much too soon and missing out on Dollar Days.

Then again, they may get caught up in the excitement and go crazy again.

Finally, GREAT advice from Alberta Clipper to make sure projected prices add up. I have to remember that there's only $1700 in play money to go around.

 

[Snot Bubbler]

Cooley,

How do you have a $1,700 money pool with a $200 cap per team?

 

[stickboy]

Cooley, this is a great topic - no worries.I'll tell you what I'm doing this year (it is, by no means, an original idea or anything.) Maybe someone smarter than me can point out the flaws in my logic, but I think it is fairly solid. Also, our auction is in its 6 or 7th year, so historical data plays a big role. I decided to only use the last 3 years worth of auction pricing from our past drafts. I averaged the last 3 yrs worth of prices, giving more weight to last year's prices and then pasted a 2009 ADP chart in with those values. Now, I feel like I have a decent handle on the real value of a player in my league - based on historical average. I can then adjust a specific players value up or down, but I know I'm within $5 or so. This may not be exactly what you were looking for, but it might give you some other ideas...

I do something similar. Historical pricing in your league is the best indicator of future pricing. Few owners make drastic changes to their draft strategies year after year excluding the real sharks and the real guppies. If you overlay pricing from year to year for each position, you will see a lot of alignment in the curves. So some sort of weighted average of recent pricing gives you the best guess at this year's prices. Then you have to map the players for this year to these prices. I don't like ADP because it does not take into account scoring systems and tendencies of your league. You have to find a good proxy that at least maps to your scoring system. Pick one of the free sites, or average a couple of them, and you have a more reasonable ranking that you can layer on top. This gives you the advantage of being able to compare the expected price with your projected price (mapping your projections on top of the prices) to find bargains and overvalued players.If you know that key opponents in your league favor specific sources, then use those to drive the ADP data.

 

[Snot Bubbler]

That's exactly what I do Stickboy.