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travdogg's favorite values as of 7/21 (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
This is a list of the 16 guys I like the most above their ADPs. ADP is taken from an average of Yahoo, Fantasy Pros, and MFL. This list is also in order of how much I like them above their ADP, not necessarily how I rank them in relation to one another. With that in mind:

1. Chris Godwin currently going WR47 110th overall.

This is simply too late for Godwin even with the chances that he is PUP to start the season. He's simply too huge of a difference maker. Godwin was WR7 on a PPG basis last season, and now Brown and Gronk are gone. Tampa Bay isn't likely to change their offense, as despite Arians leaving, I think we can safely surmise that Tom Brady is calling the shots and has been since his arrival. 

Over his 2 seasons with Tom Brady, he's been on a 17 game pace of: 107-1275-9. 

I think Godwin will likely be a league winner at this price as he could be putting up top-10 numbers the last 6-8 weeks of the season, after likely (but not certainly) being eased in a bit. 

2. Travis Etienne RB25 62nd

He'll be over a full year removed from injury by week 1, and has no real competition for carries, unless James Robinson is somehow the greatest healer in the NFL. Etienne will likely be the centerpiece of an improved offense (how could it not be with Urban gone?) and is a rare 3-down RB, who also has big play ability, he had 16 TDs at Clemson of over 45 yards.

Truthfully, I don't really understand the huge gap between him and somebody like D'Andre Swift, who seem like they are in very similar situations, and Etienne is arguably a greater talent. 

3. Russell Gage WR38 86th

He's getting a huge upgrade in offensive quality and QB quality (sorry Matt Ryan) and should see a huge workload as Godwin eases in, and maintain a good one after his return. I'm very on board with the idea of drafting both Godwin and Gage. 

In 10 games without Calvin Ridley last season, Gage was on a 17 game pace of: 97-1148-5

4. Hollywood Brown WR23 54th

Hollywood was in the midst of a breakout season last year before Lamar Jackson went down. He finished WR23 last year, despite basically being used mostly as a quick screen guy once Huntley took over. His Lamar Jackson pace was 111-1403-10, which would have led to a finish above the likes of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. 

Kyler Murray is both a better passer than Lamar Jackson, and specifically a better deep ball passer. He's made it work throwing deep to the likes of Christian Kirk and the husk of AJ Green. Brown is an upgrade from those guys, and the Cardinals have both a schedule, and a defense that screams weekly shootouts all year. 

5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB31 85th

This may be my most disagreed with call, judging by what I've read in both the CEH thread and the Ronald Jones thread. Personally, I'm putting a lot of weight into the idea that CEH was never truly healthy after gallbladder surgery last year, and was actually pretty decent under the circumstances. I think the Chiefs agree with that, as in my opinion, they didn't add any serious competition (to that end I was a little surprised they didn't go for someone like Melvin Gordon) only adding Ronald Jones and bringing back McKinnon. 

Personally, I think McKinnon is more of an in case of emergency type of back, who can fill in for a short period, but isn't someone you ever want to count on. Other than maybe Chris Carson (who probably isn't even playing) I'm not sure there is a more injury prone RB in the NFL than McKinnon. Jones will likely have a role, but it could be the exact same role he had in Tampa, and that's assuming he stays out of Reid's doghouse, which he wasn't able to do in Tampa under Arians or Koetter. 

CEH was more productive than people remember last season. His 17 game pace was 1258(total yards) and 11 TD's at 4.4 per carry, which would have been more than solid from an RB3. Now factor in that Darrell Williams and his 47 catches are gone, and I think many(most?) of those catches go to CEH and there's some real cheap upside here.

6. Treylon Burks WR48 116th

I'll get this out of the way early. I hated this pick by the Titans. I thought Burks was an overrated prospect who probably should have been picked a round later than he was. That said, boy his landing spot is excellent. Robert Woods is coming off an ACL injury and is on the wrong side of 30, and Austin Hooper is JAG. 

Burks should see heavy usage from day 1. Now he's nowhere near as good as AJ Brown, hell, he may not be any better than Corey Davis was, but he'll get every opportunity to lead this team in receiving. 

7. James Conner RB20 43rd

Conner had 6 games where Chase Edmonds was either out or limited last season. Conner finished as an RB1 in 5 of them. I don't think Darrell Williams or Eno Benjamin are on Chase Edmonds level, nor does anyone in the NFL based on their draft positions and FA contracts. So Conner is likely in for a bigger workload in general than he had a year ago.

The Cardinals are 3rd in the NFL in rushing TDs since Kingsbury took over, and they love to hand it to their RB inside the 3. Both Conner last year, and Drake in 2020 lead the NFL in carries inside the 3. I think 12+ TD's are pretty bankable given reasonable health. 

Conner is an underrated player in my eyes, who has always played pretty well when healthy. A hot take perhaps, but I don't think the Steelers upgraded going from Conner to Najee a year ago, though I will concede they got more durable. Alas, durability  is about 75% of the reason Conner is going as late as he is in my opinion, as he's missed multiple games in every season he's played. 

8. Drake London WR43 99th

London was the first WR drafted this year, and was a dominant player last year at USC. He's also part of a 2 player passing game on a team that will be trailing early and often. 

As I said in the Gage blurb, he was on an 1100+ yard 5 TD pace after Ridley went out, and Ridley himself (while clearly not his best self) was on a 105-955-7 pace. Even with a QB downgrade, I think there is room for London to produce alongside Kyle Pitts.

9. DeAndre Hopkins WR44 102nd

This is a twofold bet. First, this is another bet on the Cardinals having an elite offense. Secondly, this a bet that Hopkins injury issues were just a fluke and not a sign of things to come. I'm not too worried as he has been durable in the past and didn't suffer any major injuries, just a serious of smallish ones. 

Hopkins wasn't seeing the dominant target share he'd seen in past last season, but he also was never really healthy, first getting hurt in week 2, and basically not practicing at any point after that. 

Its not out of question Hopkins instantly assumes the #1 job when he comes back, though it likely will be a 1A/1B situation as he and Brown in theory complement each other perfectly. 

10. Saquon Barkley RB13 25th

Man, last year was about the unluckiest year for him. He had 2 back to back 20+ point games, and then he, Jones, and Golladay all get hurt in the same game, with Toney going down the very next week. Barkley's injury in particular was about as fluky as it gets and in my opinion, and doesn't make him any more of an injury risk than I thought he was before.

Joe Judge and Jason Garrett may have been the most incompetent coaching staff in the NFL last year (side note, I've really begun to wonder if the Romo era Cowboys would have been a Super Bowl team with even a league average HC) and the upgrade to Brian Daboll could be the biggest coaching upgrade north of Jacksonville. 

In a contract year, I think Barkley gets all the work he can handle, and could potentially lead the NFL in touches. Also, players tend to have a bounce back in year 2 after ACL surgery typically, which Barkley will be in this season. Also, while the Bengals got all the headlines for their OL upgrades, the Giants have significantly upgraded their OL as well, especially if Evan Neal hits the ground running. 

Truth be told, recency bias and a perhaps misguided injury prone label, is basically the difference between Barkley and a guy like Najee Harris in my opinion.

11. Tony Pollard RB34 92nd

As somebody who tends to look for trends and comparisons, man, I see a whole lot of similarities between Zeke/Pollard and Gordon/Ekeler a few years ago. In both cases, the smaller better pass catching back got a little pigeonholed into being a COP player, because the team had such a big investment in the other guy, and much like Ekeler, I believe Pollard will prove to be the better player as soon as the team gives him the chance.

I think Pollard is very capable of making this draft cost profitable even if his role doesn't change. Dallas has the league's easiest schedule, and Pollard was RB30 last year, despite missing some games. He'll likely be asked to do more in the passing game as Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are gone, and Gallup is a question mark for when he'll be back. While I like Jalen Tolbert as a prospect (thought he should have gone a round earlier) I don't see him and James Washington picking up the slack themselves. 

Also, if Zeke goes down, Pollard has league winning upside. 

12. Gerald Everett TE21 159th

This is my biggest sleeper, as I doubt Everett is drafted at all in many leagues. Jared Cook was TE15 last year, and Everett is a better player than Cook is at this stage. Everett himself was TE20 despite missing a few games, in an offense nowhere near as pass heavy as the Chargers. Based on some early draft trends, I think people are expecting a Josh Palmer breakout as the 3rd option in LA, but I think its more likely to be Everett, as a higher snap player. 

Plus, if/when something happens to Allen, or Williams, Everett could be potentially be a top-2 option in possibly the best passing game in the NFL. He makes a lot more sense as a flier to me than someone like Albert O, or Mike Gesicki.

13. Kyler Murray QB6 71st

He's got a new contract, a WR upgrade, and a potentially awful defense. Its been a good offseason for Murray owners. Murray has been the QB1 each of the last 2 seasons until getting injured, and while that could arguably be the start of a trend, I'm of the belief its just been bad luck. 

While Murray has spoken about running less, it wasn't really happening as he was on pace for 115 carries last year. His YPC was down, but I'm not worried about that, its not like Murray is suddenly not a huge rushing threat or anything. His 11 rushing TDs in 2020 was always a little fluky, especially with how often Kingsbury spreads the field out and calls dive plays for his RB inside the 3. 

Part of me wonders if Murray's awful playoff game against the Rams has skewed opinions on him somewhat. He's quietly improved as a passer in every possibly way each year of his still young career. Only Joe Burrow had a higher completion percentage last year, and only Burrow, Garoppolo (a Shanny product in my opinion) and Stafford had a higher YPA. Murray is a great passer, and he's also a great runner. If he can stay on the field, he's basically cheaper Josh Allen in my opinion.

14. Trey Lance QB14 105th

As I said in my Murray blurb, Jimmy G was 2nd in the NFL in YPA. I believe that to be at least 75% a Kyle Shanahan stat. What Trey Lance may not have in consistency, I think he'll make up for with his ability to throw deep. If he can finish with similar passing yards and TDs to Jimmy G, which isn't farfetched in my opinion, as much of Jimmy G's work was after the catch, then Lance could  be the biggest steal of drafts. 

Over the last 4 seasons (adjusted pace for 17 games) 49ers QBs have averaged 4454 passing yards and 28 TD passes. Large portions of that are Nick Mullens and CJ Bethard, so that isn't an unrealistic goal for Lance, now factor in that Lance (in an admittedly miniscule sample size) ran for 168 yards in roughly 10 quarters of action last season, which is a pace that would top every QB other than Lamar Jackson. He also ran for over 1,100 yards and 14 TD's his final year of college so its not like that came out of nowhere. 

Every year since 2017, there has been at least 1 2nd year QB to take the league by storm. Lance is by far the best candidate this season.

15. TJ Hockenson TE9 83rd

Hockenson was on a 94-901-6 pace when he got hurt a year ago, and that was despite defenses doubling him as often as any TE in the league after a hot start. TE is a position where guys (even top guys) are slower to develop, and I don't think we've seen Hockenson's best season yet.

Hockenson has been extremely effective inside the 10 in particular, over the last 2 seasons, he's caught 10 of 15 targets inside the 10, for 8 TD's and 2 2pt conversions. If the offense is more effective in general, it makes sense his opportunities will increase. I think he'll benefit from the offense having other receiving options around him, as I think he'll be the 1st look more often than not. I'm not dismissing St. Brown, but its notable that the majority of his production came without Hockenson or Swift in the lineup.

16. Zach Ertz TE11 111th

If you've read this far, you should have a good idea who I think is the offense to target this year. After his trade to the Cardinals, Ertz had only 1 game under 8 points, and put up at least 5 catches in each of his last 6 games, finishing as a top-10 TE in 4 of those weeks. 

His 17 game Cardinals pace was: 88-884-5. 

Now he gets a full offseason to learn the offense, and work with Murray. Ertz doesn't have the highest ceiling, but he's got a pretty high floor, and possibly a ceiling while Hopkins is out, but he's a guy I'd be very comfortable waiting for, instead of taking similar prospects like Schultz, Goedert, or worse prospects like Knox earlier. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I have the total opposite view of Godwin. The injury happened December 20. It wasn't just an ACL tear but also an MCL tear. I know we have heard good news about his recovery but almost always hear that this time of the year. Once he does finally come back, you can't even start him right away as you have to wait to see his usage. I think there is a real chance he's not back until Christmas. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I have the total opposite view of Godwin. The injury happened December 20. It wasn't just an ACL tear but also an MCL tear. I know we have heard good news about his recovery but almost always hear that this time of the year. Once he does finally come back, you can't even start him right away as you have to wait to see his usage. I think there is a real chance he's not back until Christmas. 
I guess I'm just more optimistic than that. I'm thinking October for a return. If Godwin is out for essentially the fantasy season, then I'm still underrating Gage, and he could be a top-15 WR. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I guess I'm just more optimistic than that. I'm thinking October for a return. If Godwin is out for essentially the fantasy season, then I'm still underrating Gage, and he could be a top-15 WR. 
It's also part of my general strategy. I try to avoid injured players in drafts. Injuries are one of the most challenging part of the fantasy season and I don't want to seek them out. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
It's also part of my general strategy. I try to avoid injured players in drafts. Injuries are one of the most challenging part of the fantasy season and I don't want to seek them out. 
That's fair. I tend to take almost the exact opposite strategy and load up on upside guys who are often either injured or suspended on my bench. But I'm well aware its not a strategy for everyone, which is why probably why I am still able to do it seemingly every year.

I am a little more wary when its somebody going pretty highly, but in a case like Godwin's, I can burn a 9th or 10th round pick on him. Somewhat similar thought process with Hopkins too.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
That's fair. I tend to take almost the exact opposite strategy and load up on upside guys who are often either injured or suspended on my bench. But I'm well aware its not a strategy for everyone, which is why probably why I am still able to do it seemingly every year.

I am a little more wary when its somebody going pretty highly, but in a case like Godwin's, I can burn a 9th or 10th round pick on him. Somewhat similar thought process with Hopkins too.
Totally fair approach, especially at Godwin's price tag. His draft spot is actually less of a problem for me than it is the carrying cost. Now some of that depends on if you have IR or how many spots but I hate having my bench clogged for such a long period which often causes me to miss out on WW adds and other stashes that might have a better timetable. 

 

-jb-

Footballguy
I still don’t know where I’ll land with Saquon once bullets start flying. Love the talent, and if he’s truly healthy, the value is amazing. I’m leaning toward being in as the days go by. 

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
I have the total opposite view of Godwin. The injury happened December 20. It wasn't just an ACL tear but also an MCL tear. I know we have heard good news about his recovery but almost always hear that this time of the year. Once he does finally come back, you can't even start him right away as you have to wait to see his usage. I think there is a real chance he's not back until Christmas. 
I agree.  I would rather let someone else take Godwin with a 9th round pick and trade for him later.  He is not going to help you until November at the earliest.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I still don’t know where I’ll land with Saquon once bullets start flying. Love the talent, and if he’s truly healthy, the value is amazing. I’m leaning toward being in as the days go by. 
Same, I have to think Daboll can improve this offense. 

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
That's fair. I tend to take almost the exact opposite strategy and load up on upside guys who are often either injured or suspended on my bench. But I'm well aware its not a strategy for everyone, which is why probably why I am still able to do it seemingly every year.

I am a little more wary when its somebody going pretty highly, but in a case like Godwin's, I can burn a 9th or 10th round pick on him. Somewhat similar thought process with Hopkins too.
This depends on how deep your bench is.  One my leagues has QB-2RB-3WR-TE-K-D, super flex, and an RB/WR/TE flex, for 11 starters and my bench is 9 players for 20 total.  I could afford to take Godwin or Hopkins and hold but I still would rather take other players that can help me right away in round 9.  It's much harder to do when your bench is short like 5-6 players.

I would jump all over Godwin or Hopkins if they were say drafted two rounds later than current ADP.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Comments Below

1. Chris Godwin currently going WR47 110th overall. Indifferent.  Priced about right.  

2. Travis Etienne RB25 62nd -  Strongly Agree.  I'm all in on Etienne, huge value.

3. Russell Gage WR38 86th - strongly Agree

4. Hollywood Brown WR23 54th - Disagree.   Fool's gold IMHO.  Nuke and Ertz are the value plays here.

5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB31 85th - Disagree.  My money is on Jones winning the early down work.

6. Treylon Burks WR48 116th - Indifferent.   Priced about right.

7. James Conner RB20 43rd - Indifferent - Priced about right.

8. Drake London WR43 99th - Agree.  I like him to provide value at current ADP.

9. DeAndre Hopkins WR44 102nd - Strongly agree.  Still one of the best in the game and Hollywood isn't a threat to targets.

10. Saquon Barkley RB13 25th - Strongly agree.  Giants finally have a realy coaching staff that should maximize his ability.

11. Tony Pollard RB34 92nd - Indifferent.  Priced about right.

12. Gerald Everett TE21 159th - Indifferent. Priced about right.

13. Kyler Murray QB6 71st - Disagree.  He gets injured and still has a below average line and no Nuke to start the season.

14. Trey Lance QB14 105th - Agree.  I like his ceiling at this price tag, but definitely a risk/reward pick.

15. TJ Hockenson TE9 83rd - Agree although generally goes before TE9 so this ranking appears off.

16. Zach Ertz TE11 111th - Strongly agree.  The most reliable pass catcher for Kyler and they had instant chemistry.   Big value here.

 
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Mongidig

Footballguy
Great thread. Very well done.

I agree with all of your takes except Godwin and I don’t hate it. I’m on team draft healthy people. 
 

1) Conner….He’ll continue to get the TD’s. Kyler has only one QB sneak since entering the league. He’s too little.

2) Hollywood…If Lamar stayed healthy and he didn’t drop 3 easy TD’s people would be talking him up. There is something to be said for college teammates being reunited. he’s gonna smash this year. Also, the NFC West plays the AFC west. They will be in many high scoring games.

3) Etienne…I’m gonna try to get my hands on as many potential league winners as I can. They’ve added some nice players but Travis is clearly gonna be the home run threat. We got the college teammate narrative going here as well.

4) Gage…Tom Brady wanted him. Done.

5) Kyler…If he stays healthy he could easily be QB 1. I’ll gamble.

 
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shadrap

Footballguy
I still don’t know where I’ll land with Saquon once bullets start flying. Love the talent, and if he’s truly healthy, the value is amazing. I’m leaning toward being in as the days go by. 
I'm with you but those last two years really leaves a bad taste.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
2. Travis Etienne RB25 62nd

He'll be over a full year removed from injury by week 1, and has no real competition for carries, unless James Robinson is somehow the greatest healer in the NFL. Etienne will likely be the centerpiece of an improved offense (how could it not be with Urban gone?) and is a rare 3-down RB, who also has big play ability, he had 16 TDs at Clemson of over 45 yards.

Truthfully, I don't really understand the huge gap between him and somebody like D'Andre Swift, who seem like they are in very similar situations, and Etienne is arguably a greater talent. 
Narrator: James Robinson is the greatest healer in the NFL...

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Narrator: James Robinson is the greatest healer in the NFL...
His recovery (a long with Akers last year) could totally change how we view achilles injuries from here out. Keyword being could. We still have to see what % he is back at once he touches the field. It  could end up really hurting ETN's value or it could just lead to a nice ETN discount in drafts. It will be fascinating to watch. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
His recovery (a long with Akers last year) could totally change how we view achilles injuries from here out. Keyword being could. We still have to see what % he is back at once he touches the field. It  could end up really hurting ETN's value or it could just lead to a nice ETN discount in drafts. It will be fascinating to watch. 
To be fair, in retrospect, Akers comeback was arguably a negative, as he was significantly less productive than Henderson or Michel. Time will tell if he's ever going to be a good RB again, and I'll be avoiding him in drafts unless he falls really far.

In Robinson's case, I think it's much more likely a return only makes Etienne a better value. Etienne is a much better and more complete RB than what the Rams had, and isn't likely to go as highly as he's had no NFL snaps.

Might just be a me thing, but I'm a pretty forgiving injury guy. I don't view guys like CMC or Barkley as high injury risks. The only guys I truly worry about/avoid, are Patella, Neck, multiple concussion, or Achilles injuries.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Along with Kevin Durant
For sure. Though I am a little less likely to compare NBA players to NFL players. Especially someone like Cam or JRob. Durant is a insanely rich. I think I read, he had a whole rehab facility built into his home and he hired a physical therapist to live with him for the entire recovery so they could rehab 24/7. I know Robinson is getting great medical attention from the Jags but it's not what someone like Durant can afford. Also, Durant's injury was May 2019, he didn't play again until December 2020. Being super wealthy and one of the best in the game allowed him to take as much time as he needed without any financial worries. 

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
For sure. Though I am a little less likely to compare NBA players to NFL players. Especially someone like Cam or JRob. Durant is a insanely rich. I think I read, he had a whole rehab facility built into his home and he hired a physical therapist to live with him for the entire recovery so they could rehab 24/7. I know Robinson is getting great medical attention from the Jags but it's not what someone like Durant can afford. Also, Durant's injury was May 2019, he didn't play again until December 2020. Being super wealthy and one of the best in the game allowed him to take as much time as he needed without any financial worries. 
Durant also had the ability to lose a lot more and still be really good. Kevin Durant is probably among the top-25 basketball players of all time, where James Robinson and Cam Akers were merely ok starters. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Durant also had the ability to lose a lot more and still be really good. Kevin Durant is probably among the top-25 basketball players of all time, where James Robinson and Cam Akers were merely ok starters. 
Good point and Durant's game isn't really built on explosiveness. Even if he does lose some speed and burst, he's still going to be 6'10" with a 7+' wingspan with an unstoppable jump shot and unlimited range. His skill is what's really driving his success. Durant's comeback is more in line with an NFL QB coming back.

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Nice list and agree with most even though I'm not fully formed about most of the injury stuff.  Doug P as a coach bears some watching in the Robinson/Etienne conversation.  Pederson seems to frustrate as much as the coach in New England in terms of mixing up his RB rotation depending on the matchup.  Someone please prove me wrong on that (It's an impression, not something I researched) but I think Etienne is priced right.

 

dipandglide

Footballguy
CEH feels like the easiest value pick or trade target in redraft/dynasty this year. I don’t understand why people are giving up on him considering the health issues. I’m scooping him everywhere I can in PPR. He’s being valued at his floor. 

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
CEH feels like the easiest value pick or trade target in redraft/dynasty this year. I don’t understand why people are giving up on him considering the health issues. I’m scooping him everywhere I can in PPR. He’s being valued at his floor. 


Respectfully, I think RB31 is much higher than his floor.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Nice list and agree with most even though I'm not fully formed about most of the injury stuff.  Doug P as a coach bears some watching in the Robinson/Etienne conversation.  Pederson seems to frustrate as much as the coach in New England in terms of mixing up his RB rotation depending on the matchup.  Someone please prove me wrong on that (It's an impression, not something I researched) but I think Etienne is priced right.
You’re correct on Pederson. From what I can tell, Sanders was the only RB to have more than 1000 scrimmage yards during his tenure. I’ve been pretty high on ETN up until this Robinson news. Now it’s a wait and see thing. I’m going to run the numbers but he’s definitely a committee guy. 

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
Nice list and agree with most even though I'm not fully formed about most of the injury stuff.  Doug P as a coach bears some watching in the Robinson/Etienne conversation.  Pederson seems to frustrate as much as the coach in New England in terms of mixing up his RB rotation depending on the matchup.  Someone please prove me wrong on that (It's an impression, not something I researched) but I think Etienne is priced right.
Doug Pederson took over the Eagles in 2016. In 2016, he had a rookie QB (Wentz) an end of career RB (Ryan Mathews) and a nearing the end 3rd down RB (Sproles). Mathews was on a 193 touch pace, but as he tended to do, was unable to stay healthy, and missed 3 games, and was limited in others. Sproles was on an 154 touch pace, but missed a game, and was also limited in some. I'd call this season somewhat inconclusive, as Sproles was a highly valued 3rd down RB, and Mathews was at the end of the line. 

2017, Carson Wentz is having his best season, and LeGarrette Blount has been signed. Blount had 12 to 17 touches in every game, until they traded for Jay Ajayi at the trader deadline. Blount was on pace for 218 carries prior to that deal. After working as a COP RB the first 3 weeks he was there, Ajayi took the starting job the rest of the way and averaged 15 touches a game. I'd also call this season somewhat inconclusive, though it did show Pederson to be open to depth chart changes.

2018, Ajayi started off on a similar pace, but went down for the season after just 4 games. A bunch of roster filler caliber guys then all got some starts, but the likes of Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, and Josh Adams are hardly anyone's idea of a starting RB. Adams pulled away from the pack the final 6 games, getting an average 14 carries per game. I'd say this season speaks to Pederson not really trusting any of his RBs, but still having a sometimes clear RB1.

2019, the RB room was again readdressed, as they acquired Jordan Howard and drafted Miles Sanders. This was a true RBBC as Sanders averaged 14 touches per game, and Howard 13. This season is certainly reasonable evidence of Pederson liking a RBBC.

2020, Sanders began the season seeing a pretty high workload, with 20+ touches (and 100+ yards) his first 2 games, the Eagles fell behind early the next few games, and Sanders was more limited, before getting injured. Upon his return he came back to a similar workload of roughly 16 touches per game. Notably, Boston Scott saw 11, 15, 17, and 17 touches in the 4 games Sanders missed. In my opinion, this season spoke to a lack of a RBBC, but Sanders just didn't stay healthy.

Looking at these 5 seasons, I see Pederson as a HC, who isn't married to a RBBC approach, but isn't opposed to it, if there isn't a clear separation. He's also not afraid to change things on the depth chart if things aren't working. Now, I would argue not a single one of these RBs has the talent Etienne has (at least at the stage they were Eagles) so I would think he's more likely to stay heavily involved. To me, injuries were just as much of what dictated a RBBC approach than a game plan of Pederson's. I would think if Etienne can stay healthy, 250 touches is reasonable. 

ETA: Its worth noting in my opinion, that if Etienne proves to be a 1st round talent, that he may be featured more than we think. When Frank Reich (a Pederson disciple) got an elite RB he built the offense around him, and even when he had a clear cut #1, Marlon Mack saw 280 touch paces. 

 
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matuski

Footballguy
13. Kyler Murray QB6 71st

If he can stay on the field, he's basically cheaper Josh Allen in my opinion.


The limitless irony in this sentence made me lol.  It basically undermines the entire analysis of Murray, because of course - Murray lacks all of the atributes that allow Allen to..... stay on the field.

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
The limitless irony in this sentence made me lol.  It basically undermines the entire analysis of Murray, because of course - Murray lacks all of the atrinutes that allows Allen to..... stay on the field.
Its semantics, but Josh Allen has missed more games than Kyler Murray has. I'm not worried about Murray staying on the field, though to be fair, I have stated I'm not a guy who shies away from players who have been injured in general, unless its something major, which it hasn't been with Murray. 

My cheaper Josh Allen thought, was my way of saying I'm passing on Allen at his price, and targeting Murray at his, and expecting that to be a profitable decision, as the price difference is 3-4 rounds apart. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
When Frank Reich (a Pederson disciple) got an elite RB he built the offense around him, and even when he had a clear cut #1, Marlon Mack saw 280 touch paces. 
You have it backwards.  Pederson was the disciple of Reich.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Doug Pederson took over the Eagles in 2016. In 2016, he had a rookie QB (Wentz) an end of career RB (Ryan Mathews) and a nearing the end 3rd down RB (Sproles). Mathews was on a 193 touch pace, but as he tended to do, was unable to stay healthy, and missed 3 games, and was limited in others. Sproles was on an 154 touch pace, but missed a game, and was also limited in some. I'd call this season somewhat inconclusive, as Sproles was a highly valued 3rd down RB, and Mathews was at the end of the line. 

2017, Carson Wentz is having his best season, and LeGarrette Blount has been signed. Blount had 12 to 17 touches in every game, until they traded for Jay Ajayi at the trader deadline. Blount was on pace for 218 carries prior to that deal. After working as a COP RB the first 3 weeks he was there, Ajayi took the starting job the rest of the way and averaged 15 touches a game. I'd also call this season somewhat inconclusive, though it did show Pederson to be open to depth chart changes.

2018, Ajayi started off on a similar pace, but went down for the season after just 4 games. A bunch of roster filler caliber guys then all got some starts, but the likes of Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, and Josh Adams are hardly anyone's idea of a starting RB. Adams pulled away from the pack the final 6 games, getting an average 14 carries per game. I'd say this season speaks to Pederson not really trusting any of his RBs, but still having a sometimes clear RB1.

2019, the RB room was again readdressed, as they acquired Jordan Howard and drafted Miles Sanders. This was a true RBBC as Sanders averaged 14 touches per game, and Howard 13. This season is certainly reasonable evidence of Pederson liking a RBBC.

2020, Sanders began the season seeing a pretty high workload, with 20+ touches (and 100+ yards) his first 2 games, the Eagles fell behind early the next few games, and Sanders was more limited, before getting injured. Upon his return he came back to a similar workload of roughly 16 touches per game. Notably, Boston Scott saw 11, 15, 17, and 17 touches in the 4 games Sanders missed. In my opinion, this season spoke to a lack of a RBBC, but Sanders just didn't stay healthy.

Looking at these 5 seasons, I see Pederson as a HC, who isn't married to a RBBC approach, but isn't opposed to it, if there isn't a clear separation. He's also not afraid to change things on the depth chart if things aren't working. Now, I would argue not a single one of these RBs has the talent Etienne has (at least at the stage they were Eagles) so I would think he's more likely to stay heavily involved. To me, injuries were just as much of what dictated a RBBC approach than a game plan of Pederson's. I would think if Etienne can stay healthy, 250 touches is reasonable. 

ETA: Its worth noting in my opinion, that if Etienne proves to be a 1st round talent, that he may be featured more than we think. When Frank Reich (a Pederson disciple) got an elite RB he built the offense around him, and even when he had a clear cut #1, Marlon Mack saw 280 touch paces. 
Excellent analysis here. I think it's a bit of lazy analysis among the fantasy community to say that because Pederson used RBBC in Philly that he's going to do the same thing in Jacksonville. He may do that do keep each guy fresh with both coming off major injuries, and Etienne/Robinson do have complementary skills. But at the end of the day, have to imagine that the more effective/better player will get the most snaps. My money is on Etienne given his explosiveness and close connection with Lawrence, but we'll see. 

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Excellent analysis here. I think it's a bit of lazy analysis among the fantasy community to say that because Pederson used RBBC in Philly that he's going to do the same thing in Jacksonville. He may do that do keep each guy fresh with both coming off major injuries, and Etienne/Robinson do have complementary skills. But at the end of the day, have to imagine that the more effective/better player will get the most snaps. My money is on Etienne given his explosiveness and close connection with Lawrence, but we'll see. 
I agree that is what “should” happen especially when you are talking about a first round talent vs an udfa in Robinson but both are coming off injuries and Jax this year is about righting the ship and seeing what they have (and I think they will are more about getting Lawrence’s career on track than featuring a rb).  Etienne’s price has that baked in in terms of general consensus so if you think the above then he is undervalued. If you think what Ive written then the price is correct, but there is potential for a breakout there.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Excellent analysis here. I think it's a bit of lazy analysis among the fantasy community to say that because Pederson used RBBC in Philly that he's going to do the same thing in Jacksonville. He may do that do keep each guy fresh with both coming off major injuries, and Etienne/Robinson do have complementary skills. But at the end of the day, have to imagine that the more effective/better player will get the most snaps. My money is on Etienne given his explosiveness and close connection with Lawrence, but we'll see. 
I agree that is what “should” happen especially when you are talking about a first round talent vs an udfa in Robinson but both are coming off injuries and Jax this year is about righting the ship and seeing what they have (and I think they will are more about getting Lawrence’s career on track than featuring a rb).  Etienne’s price has that baked in in terms of general consensus so if you think the above then he is undervalued. If you think what Ive written then the price is correct, but there is potential for a breakout there.
Agreed - I think most of us are on the same page that Pederson will use both, and as you bolded, the key is to set Lawrence up for the best chance of success. Which is why I think the chemistry/familiarity with Etienne will go a long way to getting Trevor more comfortable. That's not to say that Trevor, Pederson, etc. won't want Robinson out there given the stability and steadiness he brings, but that's not going to help much if Robinson - who was never a burner to begin with - has lost of some of his giddy-up after the injury. Time will tell. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Deamon said:
You have it backwards.  Pederson was the disciple of Reich.
Unrelated to fantasy, but I'd probably rather have Pederson as my HC than Reich. Reich has been Indy's HC for 4 years and has 1 playoff win (in year 1, with Andrew Luck) despite playing in an easier division, one where the Texans and Jags have combined for 12 wins in their last 2 years. 

For whatever its worth (possibly nothing) Pederson has won as many playoff games without Reich as Reich has without Pederson, and Reich has coached more seasons since then.

Fantasy wise, I'll take Taylor if I end up picking #1, and Pittman is on my 4th round radar, but I don't consider Frank Reich a positive as Indy's HC. 

 

Gally

Footballguy
zamboni said:
Excellent analysis here. I think it's a bit of lazy analysis among the fantasy community to say that because Pederson used RBBC in Philly that he's going to do the same thing in Jacksonville. He may do that do keep each guy fresh with both coming off major injuries, and Etienne/Robinson do have complementary skills. But at the end of the day, have to imagine that the more effective/better player will get the most snaps. My money is on Etienne given his explosiveness and close connection with Lawrence, but we'll see. 
I think these two sentences are interesting.  The reason being is that ETN excels in space and using speed to get the corner but isn't as strong between the tackles.  He tries to dance and use his speed quickness too much and sometimes it costs him (probably more in the NFL).   Robinson excels between the tackles and always getting forward progress.  He is great at 8-10 yard gains by alluding people in the holes (making first guy miss) and getting upfield for positive yardage.  Assuming he still has that quickness/allusiveness in between the tackles these two make a great compliment to each other.  Because of that I think the RBBC definitely makes sense because of what each brings to the table.  Assuming health for both I don't see one totally taking over.  I see 60-40 split with the 60 changing week to week based on game situation and game plan.  

 

menobrown

Footballguy
I think these two sentences are interesting.  The reason being is that ETN excels in space and using speed to get the corner but isn't as strong between the tackles.  He tries to dance and use his speed quickness too much and sometimes it costs him (probably more in the NFL).   Robinson excels between the tackles and always getting forward progress.  He is great at 8-10 yard gains by alluding people in the holes (making first guy miss) and getting upfield for positive yardage.  Assuming he still has that quickness/allusiveness in between the tackles these two make a great compliment to each other.  Because of that I think the RBBC definitely makes sense because of what each brings to the table.  Assuming health for both I don't see one totally taking over.  I see 60-40 split with the 60 changing week to week based on game situation and game plan.  
Totally agree, to me ETN and Robinson could not be more different and if/when both are healthy I can't see this being anything other then a RBBC regardless of the coaches past usage or not because I think their differences complement one another very well.

What is of particular interest to me in their usage is we keep hearing a lot about ETN's involvement in the passing game but from what I've gathered a healthy James Robinson is odds on favorite to be the the third down back because he's strong in pass protection while also proving to be at least a solid dump off option, kind of in the mold of the guy he replaced, Fournette. A player like Swift caught 48 passes in 13 games last year just on first/second down so I still think ETN will catch his share of his passes even if he's not the primary third down but I'm dubious he can reach season long value without having that role.

My guess is early in the season ETN is going to look like decent value but as the season progresses and Robinson ideally gets healthier I don't think that will be case and ETN will ultimately prove to be currently going in the kind of range he should be going, if not a little on the high side.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Not gonna lie, recent and surprising James Robinson news has me cooling off on ETN.  Still like him in PPRs if he slides a little, but a hard pass right now in standard.

 
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Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
I remember the former coach named Urban talking about lining up Etienne at WR. Any chance this coaching staff tries to get both RBs on the field at once?

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Unrelated to fantasy, but I'd probably rather have Pederson as my HC than Reich. Reich has been Indy's HC for 4 years and has 1 playoff win (in year 1, with Andrew Luck) despite playing in an easier division, one where the Texans and Jags have combined for 12 wins in their last 2 years. 

For whatever its worth (possibly nothing) Pederson has won as many playoff games without Reich as Reich has without Pederson, and Reich has coached more seasons since then.

Fantasy wise, I'll take Taylor if I end up picking #1, and Pittman is on my 4th round radar, but I don't consider Frank Reich a positive as Indy's HC. 
You're of course entitled to your opinion but I strongly disagree. Pederson was a fantastic leader and everything went right for us that year (if our starting QB doesn't tear his acl, do we win the sb?  I doubt it).  Reich was the genius behind the offense tho. Pederson will be good with a smart and good OC, but he was not good at all at game planning or running an offense. He just had big balls to go for it in certain situations and a lot of things go right that year. I'll always love him but never in a million years would I take him as a coach over Reich and I doubt many teams in the league would. 

 

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