Travdogg's positional rankings from week 10 onward (2 Viewers)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Josh Allen (3)
3. Jalen Hurts (4)
4. Patrick Mahomes (1), rushing, particularly inside the 10 is down. That's enough to move him down as its very tight at the top. I'm also not convinced Worthy is healthy, like he's laboring out there, and that lowers the big play ceiling.

Tier 2:
5. Drake Maye (6), was hoping they'd add another weapon at the trade deadline, but that was not to be. Maye has 2.5 TDs a game in his last 4 and is averaging 40 rush yards a week.
6. Justin Herbert (7)
7. Bo Nix (8)

Tier 3:
8. Caleb Williams (12), the most PA heavy offense in the NFL, he's a little boom/bust but this week was a reminder of both how high those boom can be, and how athletic Caleb is. Could have even more upside if Loveland wasn't just a 1-off. Maybe he could add a Gadsden type seam weapon for them?
9. Daniel Jones (10)
10. Jordan Love (9)

Tier 4:
11. Baker Mayfield (11)
12. Jared Goff (13)
13. Jaxson Dart (NR), could argue him higher, but its also an offense where the wheels can come off at any time. He's QB5 over the last 6 weeks. An example of a guy where rushing numbers are a big boost.
14. Matthew Stafford (NR), he's on a heater, and is up to QB8 in PPG. Lack of rushing keeps him out of the top-10 for me, as TD passes seem likely to regress to the mean some, safe to say Rams front office nailed their Adams>Kupp evaluation.
15. Dak Prescott (15)

Dropped off: Jayden Daniels (5), not sure if he's out for the season, but expecting him to miss November at least. Durability was a concern for him as a prospect (I remember 1 tape watcher comparing him to Johnny Knoxville for all the unnecessary hits he took at LSU) and why many preferred Maye at the time. Brock Purdy (14), maybe he'll be back this week, maybe SF has no idea. Maybe this is Joe Burrow with less certainty. I was expecting him back weeks ago, as well as Pearsall, and even Aiyuk. If you've held him this long, and don't need the spot, I guess why stop now, but I'm losing confidence.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Jonathan Taylor (1)
2. Christian McCaffrey (2)
3. James Cook (3)
4. Josh Jacobs (6), only Colts and Chiefs spend more time in the redzone than the Packers, and with Kraft gone, Jacobs goes from being option 1, to maybe being option 1 and 2. Gets a TD every week.

Tier 2:
5. Bijan Robinson (4)
6. De'Von Achane (7)
7. Jahmyr Gibbs (5), just isn't as big a part of the passing game as hoped. I wonder if it's a blocking issue? Been seeing a lot of Monty on 3rd downs. Had the explosion against TB but hasn't really been a true difference maker otherwise, despite run heavy playcalling. On pace for 300 touches.

Tier 3:
8. Javonte Williams (8)
9. Saquon Barkley (9)
10. Kyren Williams (13), been losing a drive or 2 a game to Corum, but that hasn't really mattered, as Rams are 4th in redzone drives, and 2nd in plays run. TDs feel lower than they should be. Positive regression candidate?
11. Bucky Irving (11)
12. Derrick Henry (10)
13. Ashton Jeanty (12)

Tier 4:
14. Rico Dowdle (22), Panthers are most run heavy neutral game script team in the NFL, and that shows no signs of stopping. In his 3 true starts, he's averaging 26-173-1 rushing, with 3-31-.33 receiving. That would be RB1 overall, if it were to sustain. I can see the case he's a tier, maybe even 2 too low. But, I also don't trust that Carolina's D is gonna allow them to stay in run mode, and I do worry he'll wear down as he's never seen this kind of work before. I'm erring on the side of being pessimistic, I have 1 Dowdle share and I'm gonna ride it out, because that team has no real needs, but I do wonder if selling high is the right call.
15. Quinshon Judkins (16)
16. Omarion Hampton (15)
17. D'Andre Swift (14), Monangai had a great game against the Bengals, but I don't think he's a real threat to Swift yet. I'm most encouraged about how well the OL is run blocking. I see this as a 60-40 backfield going forward, with Swift getting all the receiving work, and GL being split. If Monangai takes GL, Swift is too high, and Monangai will possibly make the list. This isn't Walker/Charbonnet, but in theory, it could get there.

Tier 5:
18. Jaylen Warren (17), he's got a stranglehold on the starting job (though oddly Gainwell gets most pass down work, considering that was Warren's strength in year's prior) but this is an offense that doesn't really get into the redzone much, and also runs the fewest plays in the league. The ceiling can only get so high. 13-20 touches every week he's played.
19. Breece Hall (18)
20. Chase Brown (20)

Tier 6:
21. Travis Etienne (19)
22. JK Dobbins (21)
23. David Montgomery (26), he's Campbell's tone setter, and I think some of the KC loss was blamed on not getting Monty more involved, as he had a season low 6 touches that week. Still a weekly TD threat, with the highest contingent upside.

Tier 7:
24. Kenneth Walker (24)
25. Jordan Mason (23)
26. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (27)
27. Rhamondre Stevenson (30)
28. Zach Charbonnet (28)
29. Alvin Kamara (29)
30. Woody Marks (NR), pretty much a 50-50 RBBC with Chubb where he sees pass downs and offers more explosiveness. Texans offense isn't good though, so upside is limited. Chubb/Marks is kind of a better version of Pollard/Spears.

Dropped off: Chuba Hubbard (25), still worth hanging onto as a high-upside handcuff, but its Dowdle's job at the moment. If Hubbard is lucky maybe he can work his way back into a timeshare if he's just being limited due to health (production, not workload) but its not about to be 50-50 again.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Rashee Rice (1)
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3), averaging 16.3 YPC, I expect that to go down with the Shaheed trade. I think they'll feature him more as the deep threat, but the counter to that, is that JSN may see less coverage in the redzone, where he's only on pace for 9 TDs, that number could grow. He moves ahead of Puka due to Puka getting nicked up a lot more.
3. Puka Nacua (2)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)

Tier 2:
5. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
6. Drake London (11), well that was emphatic answer to the sample size of him only doing things when Mooney was out. That was probably the best single game performance by a WR this season. He almost singlehandedly beat NE. Double digit targets in all but 2 games, he gives me a lot of prime Brandon Marshall vibes. Such great body control for a guy that big.
7. Davante Adams (8)

Tier 3:
8. Justin Jefferson (6), feels like they don't want McCarthy to be as pass heavy as they have been in the past, even as much as Wentz was. That hurts Jefferson's ceiling. He probably doesn't have tier 1 upside anymore. However, he's still Jefferson, and its likely McCarthy improves and earns more trust as the season goes on and isn't likely going to stay at the 150-pass yard mark, and the Vikings are still pass heavy in the redzone, so I'm not gonna drop him as far as his situation might say I should.
9. Emeka Egbuka (7)
10. George Pickens (9)
11. Garrett Wilson (12)
12. CeeDee Lamb (10)

Tier 4:
13. Michael Pittman (15)
14. Rome Odunze (13)
15. Jaylen Waddle (19), has at least 6-82 in every game since Hill went down, except the Browns weather disaster game. He's a high-end WR2, who maybe has a limited ceiling due to Tua/OL.

Tier 5:
16. Quentin Johnston (25), this might be a bold call. Chargers are 6th in redzone drives, and 3rd in pass attempts. He's their favorite option in the redzone, and I think its possible his hamstring injury limited him for a few weeks there. Chargers are a roulette wheel passing game, but in my opinion, he's the guy with the highest weekly ceiling.
17. Nico Collins (16)
18. Tee Higgins (27), most pass heavy offense since Flacco took over. Higgins is a little boom/bust as the Bengals basically are just asking him to win deep, but when he does, the upside is huge. 4 TDs in 4 games with Flacco. 11.1 more PPR PPG with Flacco, can that sustain?
19. AJ Brown (18)
20. DK Metcalf (14), he's in a bad offense, but he's the clear #1 WR. Rodgers also loves throwing him jump balls inside the 10. He's a bit TD or bust, his only 100-yard game was the London game against the Vikings with the long TD. He's getting there in a different way, but fantasy points wise, this isn't all that different than Seattle was. Only on pace for 100 targets, but 11 TDs.

Tier 6:
21. Ladd McConkey (17), I like his floor the most for the Chargers, but he's not getting the big plays like he did last season. I think he's just settling in as a low-end WR2.
22. Jordan Addison (20)
23. Courtland Sutton (24)

Tier 7:
24. DeVonta Smith (26)
25. Marvin Harrison (28)
26. Tetairoa McMillan (22)
27. Zay Flowers (29)
28. Chris Olave (23), sure didn't seem to have much of a rapport with Shough. Was that NO featuring Shaheed to increase his trade value, or an issue to overcome? 1 thing Olave has going for him is Kellen Moore, who runs a fast offense, Saints are top-5 in plays run, and its not all garbage time. Still like Olave as a WR3, just more concern that is all he can be in this offense. I don't know that Shaheed leaving helps. Who is the #2 right now, Brandin Cooks? Juwan Johnson?

Tier 8:
29. Deebo Samuel (30)
30. Brian Thomas (21), WR45 PPG this season, and seemingly banged up with a shoulder, wrist and now ankle. Hunter was potentially pressing for #1 role, but now he's out, and now Jakobi Meyers is in. At this point, bit of a hedge here, without more knowledge on his injury. He sounds less than 50-50 to play this week, and even if he does, is he just a decoy?
31. Keenan Allen (33)

Tier 9:
32. Wan'Dale Robinson (32)
33. Stefon Diggs (36)
34. DJ Moore (38), 76 and 87 yards in the last 2 games, he's hitting more long plays, though his targets aren't really changing. He (and especially Loveland) benefitted from Odunze getting the DJ Turner treatment this week, but he's back to low-end WR3 territory.
35. Terry McLaurin (31)

Tier 10:
36. Romeo Doubs (NR), like I said about Jacobs, the Packers are 3rd in redzone drives, with Kraft out, production needs to go somewhere. Doubs is WR23 on the season, but its heavily juiced by that random 3 TD game against Dallas. Still, he's the next best bet after Jacobs in my opinion.
37. Jameson Williams (39)
38. Khalil Shakir (40)
39. Ricky Pearsall (34)
40. Xavier Worthy (37)

Dropped off: Travis Hunter (35), just when we were getting our hopes up. Sounds like he should be back after his 4-week IR stint is up, though unless I missed it, the actual injury hasn't been said, just non-contact knee injury that isn't too serious, but serious enough to go on IR.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Trey McBride (1)
2. Brock Bowers (5), well he sure looked like the guy people were drafting in round 2 in August. Interestingly, he lined up mostly as a WR against Jacksonville, both slot and out wide, he was rarely on the line. With Meyers trader and Mayer not, I expect that to continue. I would have ranked him #1 had Arizona not named Brissett the starter.
3. Tyler Warren (2)

Tier 2:
4. George Kittle (4)
5. Jake Ferguson (6), 15 targets in 3 games since Lamb's return. He's the clear #3 in the passing game, but he does see redzone targets, and Dallas plays from behind a lot, and I don't know if adding Quinnen Williams changes that much (didn't for the Jets) this tier is a little more TD dependent than I'd like for a 4-7 range to be.
6. Dallas Goedert (7)
7. Sam LaPorta (8)

Tier 3:
8. Oronde Gadsden (9), going along with my Chargers theory, I think Gadsden is their #2 big play option, and I think given his position that is extra valuable. At least 5-68 in 4 straight. Don't know if that consistency continues, but he's established that he's here to stay for sure.
9. Dalton Kincaid (10)
10. Travis Kelce (11)

Tier 4:
11. Mark Andrews (14), last 3 games with Lamar he has 15-143-4. He's not as explosive as he once was, but he's still a savvy vet who is option #1 in the redzone.
12. Kyle Pitts (12)
13. Darren Waller (13)
14. Harold Fannin (15)
15. Hunter Henry (NR), very inconsistent, but has a good shot at either a TD or 40 yards most weeks. On pace for 55-695-8, but good luck guessing what week he'll pay off.

Dropped off: Tucker Kraft (3), really sucks to see. He was arguably the most important player on the Packers after Love and Parsons. I think his production can be replaced and spread out among others, but his effectiveness cannot. This is a major loss for GB, and maybe the 3rd biggest injury in fantasy this season after Burrow and Nabers.

 

[FarFromHome]

First and foremost thank you for moving Stafford back into your 15. Ha ha. I'll push the conversation a bit more. He is currently 9th in traditional QB scoring. 6 of the 9 ahead of him have not had their bye weeks. He will be in the top 5 range for traditional QB scoring after all byes. Just saying. Love you. Ha ha

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I know you are sick of me pounding the table for Chase Brown but I will still say 20 is too low for him. There are not 19 RBs I am taking over CB personally. He has looked good and now that Perine is probably out for a while, he is going to likely get that 90%+ snap count again.

 

[Riffraff]

Still have the wrong Minny RB on the list. If healthy, A Jones is the guy. Nice play-off schedule.
Mason couldn't do much with Jones out, nor could he keep the 3rd stringer off the field.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Hampton at #16? we'll get him starting maybe in week 13?

 

[Alpha Dawgs]

Currently 8-1. Redraft 14 teams. ESPN PPR (no $)

From week 10-18 projected points = 140 average per week.

Based on Travdogg's rankings:

QB's (2) tier 2 Maye & Nix
RB's (2) tier 3 K Williams & Henry + (1) tier 4 Dowdle
WR's (2) tier 1 Rice & Nacua + (1) tier 3 Wilson + (1) tier 5 AJ Brown
TE's (1) tier 2 Ferguson + (1) tier 3 Gadsden

Of these 11 players 5 were drafted. Three were acquired in trades and three were timely waiver pickup's. My trades were a combination of high drafted players and other waiver pickup's.

My team, for the most part, has been very healthy and won a number of close games. I believe managing waivers picking up players in advance of when everyone knows the list for that week is the key.

In 2024 started 0-3 barely got into the championship playoffs with a 9-5 record. I made 44 moves winning my 16 team league for the first time. Guess I'm getting better at this game. I do spend a lot of time doing research and identifying players I like to root for. What I don't like is rooting for one of my players when they are going against my favorite club.

 

[travdogg]

First and foremost thank you for moving Stafford back into your 15. Ha ha. I'll push the conversation a bit more. He is currently 9th in traditional QB scoring. 6 of the 9 ahead of him have not had their bye weeks. He will be in the top 5 range for traditional QB scoring after all byes. Just saying. Love you. Ha ha

Stafford is currently QB8 in PPG. I feel like this is his ceiling without adding anything as a runner. 9 TD passes the last 2 games, feels unsustainable. I think he may be playing the best football of his career right now, and I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL. He's on pace for 4562-45-4 as a passer, which is incredibly efficient. He's an MVP candidate, but he gets hurt by the lack of rushing in fantasy.

 

[travdogg]

I know you are sick of me pounding the table for Chase Brown but I will still say 20 is too low for him. There are not 19 RBs I am taking over CB personally. He has looked good and now that Perine is probably out for a while, he is going to likely get that 90%+ snap count again.

I would disagree with Brown himself looking good. He's left a lot of meat on the bone all year, including last week. However, I will agree the Perine injury could be a big deal. Its very possible the Bengals go back to last season's usage for Brown, but I think its also possible that Tahj Brooks gets used more often (not as much as Perine but more than anyone last season) so I'm hedging a bit there. I think Brown himself has clearly been a less effective player than he was last season.

I will add that he does have 100 scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, so if that keeps up, maybe he's a tier low. I don't think the ceiling is anywhere close to what it was expected to be in August. I have 1 share of Brown, so I hope he goes back to the 2024 workload, but even if he does, I'm not expecting 2024 effectiveness. I'll be happy if he's just a solid RB2.

 

[travdogg]

Still have the wrong Minny RB on the list. If healthy, A Jones is the guy. Nice play-off schedule.
Mason couldn't do much with Jones out, nor could he keep the 3rd stringer off the field.

If healthy is doing a lot of heavy lifting for Jones. He already got hurt in his 1st game back. Mason was a top-24 RB while Jones was out, and that was counting the stinker against the Chargers where they abandoned the run game sometime in the 1st quarter. Other than that. Mason had 72 yards or a TD in every game, which is solid RB2 stuff.

I trust Mason more than Jones. I would also disagree that Mason couldn't keep the 3rd stringer (Scott) off the field. Scott had over 5 touches in games. A 48-10 win over the Jake Browning Bengals, and the London Steelers game where Mason got banged up late.

 

[Tau837]

16. Quentin Johnston (25), this might be a bold call. Chargers are 6th in redzone drives, and 3rd in pass attempts. He's their favorite option in the redzone, and I think its possible his hamstring injury limited him for a few weeks there. Chargers are a roulette wheel passing game, but in my opinion, he's the guy with the highest weekly ceiling.

FWIW, here is the Chargers' red zone production so far this season:

• Receiving:
  • Allen - 11 targets, 4/31/3
  • Johnston - 9 targets, 5/45/3
  • Gadsden - 9 targets, 5/42/2
  • McConkey - 8 targets 4/17/2
  • Vidal - 5 targets, 3/16/1
  • Tre Harris - 2 targets, 2/14/1
  • Matlock - 1 target, 1/2/1
  • Total - 45 targets, 24/167/13
• Rushing:
  • Vidal - 17/36/1
  • Herbert - 10/28/1
  • Hampton - 10/19/1
  • Total - 37/83/3

It does feel like a bold call to characterize Johnston as WR16 and ranked well above McConkey and Allen, especially if based in part on Johnston being their favorite option in the red zone, where the Chargers have spread it around quite a bit.