Travdogg's positional rankings from week 13 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Jalen Hurts (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (5)
5. Baker Mayfield (9), over downgraded last week. There could be some volume concerns, but he's rushing again, and matchups are pristine.
6. Jayden Daniels (4), sure he's technically coming off his best week, but he (and maybe this is more Kingsbury's playcalling) and the offense really struggled until a miracle 4th quarter. That's essentially 2 Hail Mary TDs for Daniels which I think has covered up some scoring issues. This is a team that runs at the GL, and while maybe that will be Daniels, it feels like they'd prefer it not to be.

Tier 3:
7. Patrick Mahomes (8)
8. Kyler Murray (7)
9. Justin Herbert (6), probably pushed him a little too high last week. Just not enough weapons to compete with the tier 2 guys.

Tier 4:
10. Jordan Love (12)
11. Bo Nix (11)
12. CJ Stroud (13)

Tier 5:
13. Brock Purdy (10), more of an injury downgrade. Its possible he plays this week, and even injured he should be better than Allen was, but he's unlikely to be as effective as he was earlier in the year.
14. Tua Tagovailoa (NR), 10 TDs over last 4, including 7 in last 2 against lesser defenses. Miami likes to throw inside the 10, and that was always a reason why I kinda liked him this preseason, was because their rush TD/pass TD splits were always unsustainable.
15. Kirk Cousins (NR), bye week came at the perfect time as he needed London and especially Mooney to get healthy. Really nice schedule down the stretch, including LV/NYG/Was in the playoff weeks.

Dropped off: Geno Smith (14), tough schedule, and under 20 points in 5 of last 6. Jared Goff (15), pretty much the same as Geno. Just WAY to boom/bust.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley (1)
2. Derrick Henry (7)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (8)
4. Alvin Kamara (5)
5. Bijan Robinson (2)
6. Kyren Williams (10)
7. Breece Hall (3)

Tier 2:
8. Joe Mixon (6)
9. Josh Jacobs (12)
10. De'Von Achane (9)
11. Christian McCaffrey (4), just doesn't really look right. 3.4 YPC in 3 games since his return. Injuries are hurting everyone in SF other than Kittle.

Tier 3:
12. Chuba Hubbard (22), this has been long overdue, I've been being too stubborn here, waiting on Brooks, underrating the Panthers offense, and just generally not being high enough of Hubbard. The extension was a tipoff on how they feel. Hubbard has been a low-end RB1 all year, and other than 1 game against Philly has a pretty solid remaining schedule.
13. Jonathan Taylor (14)
14. James Conner (13)

Tier 4:
15. James Cook (18)
16. David Montgomery (17)
17. Kenneth Walker (11), speaking of long overdue. I've been treating Walker like the talent he is, not the situation he's in. Seattle can't run block at all. Every yard Walker gets he earns. He's basically Barkley in NY, but instead of the offense being built around him, its a passing team. Can blow up any given week but is prone to being forgotten about.

Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (23)
19. Isiah Pacheco (24)
20. Aaron Jones (16)
21. Chase Brown (15)

Tier 6:
22. D'Andre Swift (25)
23. Tony Pollard (27)
24. Bucky Irving (29)

Tier 7:
25. Rhamondre Stevenson (21)
26. Rachaad White (28)
27. Tyrone Tracy (19), 3 fumbles in 2 games, one of which basically lost a game by itself, makes it likely he's back to a more evenly split RBBC. Offense is also clearly worse without Jones, which was always going to be the case.

Tier 8:
28. Brian Robinson (20), just seems to have trouble getting and staying healthy. I'm expecting close to a 50-50 split with him and Ekeler down the stretch, which puts them both in solid flex territory.
29. Najee Harris (26)
30. Austin Ekeler (NR), high-end RB2 whenever Robinson has missed, and has a role otherwise. Did have a concussion, but haven't heard anything to suggest its a major concern. Worst case seems like he misses 1 game, and comes back fresh after the week 14 bye.

Dropped off: Rico Dowdle (30), nice game against Washington, and makes for a solid flex in games the Cowboys lead in. That should be the case again against the NYG on Thanksgiving, but beyond that and Carolina, I don't envision too many Dallas leads.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Ja'Marr Chase (1)
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2)
3. Justin Jefferson (3)

Tier 2:
4. Nico Collins (5)
5. AJ Brown (4)
6. CeeDee Lamb (8)
7. Tyreek Hill (6)

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
9. Terry McLaurin (14), targets are frustrating but he once again showed himself to be a big play specialist. They'd be wise to get him more involved early. WR11 in PPG.
10. Malik Nabers (9)
11. Puka Nacua (11)
12. Garrett Wilson (10)

Tier 4:
13. Tee Higgins (19), WR5 in PPG on a team that doesn't really play defense. More injury prone than most but can explode at any team.
14. Drake London (15)
15. Mike Evans (12)
16. DK Metcalf (13)
17. George Pickens (16)

Tier 5:
18. Zay Flowers (18)
19. Marvin Harrison (22)
20. Davante Adams (17)

Tier 6:
21. Jayden Reed (27), should be in some pass heavier scripts down the stretch, and Doubs going down can only help.
22. Jauan Jennings (26)
23. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (24)
24. Ladd McConkey (20)
25. Calvin Ridley (25)
26. DJ Moore (30)

Tier 7:
27. Darnell Mooney (28)
28. Courtland Sutton (29)
29. DeVonta Smith (23), its possible he only needs 1 week to get his hammy right, but its also possible Eagles take it slow with him, as they are playoff locks. Hard to rank him too much lower than this, as he's in a high-scoring offense, but he's risky, speaking of...
30. Deebo Samuel (21), I think its long past time to be giving him the benefit of the doubt. He still looks explosive enough, see his KR, but he's WR47 PPG. The thought was Aiyuk going down would be a boon, but he's clearly behind Kittle/Jennings in the pecking order, and possibly CMC too. Ability to take any touch to the house keeps him as a WR3 for me, but yeah, not a confident one.

Tier 8:
31. Brian Thomas (36)
32. Jakobi Meyers (33)
33. Khalil Shakir (32)
34. Jaylen Waddle (37)

Tier 9:
35. Jameson Williams (34)
36. Josh Downs (38)
37. Amari Cooper (NR), hoping he gets more involved after the bye week. 1 of he or Kincaid likely will be, I'm thinking their is more reason to bet on the guy newer to the team.
38. Tank Dell (35)
39. DeAndre Hopkins (31), playing time has oddly gone down in 4 straight games. Not typically what happens for a midseason trade. KC is heavily rotating everyone who isn't Kelce, and that makes everyone who isn't Kelce unreliable. He's the most talented one, so he stays on the list, but its trending very badly.
40. Rome Odunze (NR), hasn't popped yet, but 10 targets in each of the 2 games since the OC change makes me think its coming.

Dropped off: Cedric Tillman (39), has come back to earth and has a tough remaining schedule. Jerry Jeudy (40), has topped 73 yards in 4 straight. Just missed the cut, as I hate the Browns schedule, weather concerns, and Jeudy's track record.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. George Kittle (3), doesn't matter who the QB is, or how banged up the offense is, Kittle is gonna Kittle this year. Would be WR4 in PPG.
2. Brock Bowers (1)
3. Trey McBride (4)
4. Travis Kelce (2)

Tier 2:
5. Taysom Hill (7)
6. Cade Otton (5)
7. David Njoku (6)
8. TJ Hockenson (8)

Tier 3:
9. Dallas Goedert (12), always a bump up whenever AJ/Smith are banged up. One would think with how successful Barkley has been, that he should be eating in the PA game, but for whatever reason the Eagles don't really do that.
10. Sam LaPorta (10)
11. Evan Engram (9)

Tier 4:
12. Jonnu Smith (NR), could argue him a tier higher. I'm probably letting too much prior bias in, as I keep waiting for Tyreek to take off, and have been burned by Jonnu many times. His recent stretch says he should be up there with Hockenson, but I just trust Hockenson a lot more. I also think the tier 3 guys are either target #1 (I know Jonnu has been that too) or are on elite offenses with high-upside contingency.
13. Mark Andrews (14)
14. Kyle Pitts (11), had that excellent 4 week stretch that in retrospect looks very much due to matchups. 2 of the last 3 games have ended in 1 catch.
15. Will Dissly (13)

Dropped off: Dalton Kincaid (15), was the last omission. One of him or Cooper should rebound down the stretch. Not super confident picking one but prefer to bet on Cooper.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Excellent work, thank you!

 

[Gjallarhorn]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Jalen Hurts (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (5)
5. Baker Mayfield (9), over downgraded last week. There could be some volume concerns, but he's rushing again, and matchups are pristine.
6. Jayden Daniels (4), sure he's technically coming off his best week, but he (and maybe this is more Kingsbury's playcalling) and the offense really struggled until a miracle 4th quarter. That's essentially 2 Hail Mary TDs for Daniels which I think has covered up some scoring issues. This is a team that runs at the GL, and while maybe that will be Daniels, it feels like they'd prefer it not to be.

Tier 3:
7. Patrick Mahomes (8)
8. Kyler Murray (7)
9. Justin Herbert (6), probably pushed him a little too high last week. Just not enough weapons to compete with the tier 2 guys.

Tier 4:
10. Jordan Love (12)
11. Bo Nix (11)
12. CJ Stroud (13)

Tier 5:
13. Brock Purdy (10), more of an injury downgrade. Its possible he plays this week, and even injured he should be better than Allen was, but he's unlikely to be as effective as he was earlier in the year.
14. Tua Tagovailoa (NR), 10 TDs over last 4, including 7 in last 2 against lesser defenses. Miami likes to throw inside the 10, and that was always a reason why I kinda liked him this preseason, was because their rush TD/pass TD splits were always unsustainable.
15. Kirk Cousins (NR), bye week came at the perfect time as he needed London and especially Mooney to get healthy. Really nice schedule down the stretch, including LV/NYG/Was in the playoff weeks.

Dropped off: Geno Smith (14), tough schedule, and under 20 points in 5 of last 6. Jared Goff (15), pretty much the same as Geno. Just WAY to boom/bust.

Sam Darnold needs some love. 9th in passing yards and 4th in TDs. His remaining SOS is less than ideal but is supporting cast is top notch.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

 

[BassNBrew]

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

FBG has him projected for 14 pts next week.

I think he'll be out 2-4 weeks and should be off the list.

 

[VikingFrog]

I’m just here to say you are a man of fine taste placing all three of my RBs on tier 1.

I remember the good old days of the early weeks when we had to beg to get Kamara ranked at all!

 

[Stoneworker]

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

Agree. I think I might try selling Kupp for Lamb if I can. Even though Lamb is banged up without a QB.

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

Agree. I think I might try selling Kupp for Lamb if I can. Even though Lamb is banged up without a QB.

I'm heavily invested in Kupp, I did not like what I saw and expect some pedestrian weeks. Kupp was even pulled at the endzone on one occasion for D. Robinson.

 

[ShamrockPride]

How has Hunter Henry been a top 10 TE all season, and I don't think he's ever touched your rankings this year?

 

[the spanker]

I own Tyreek Hill and question if he should be ranked that high. Can you please tell me what I'm missing here?

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

Agree with this. Bo Nix is ranked #11 and his #1 target is ranked #28? I can't compute.

Since week 8, Sutton has seen 8+ targets and double digit targets each game. He just came off a pretty good showing against the Raiders.

His floor is 15 points and ceiling is probably 28. I'll take a guaranteed 20 point guy over almost everyone on the PPG list above.

 

[Chaka]

I would love to hear your argument for CeeDee moving up a spot. I mean, lots of targets but at 6 yards a pop...?

And, I think you're behind the curve on Courtland Sutton. I haven't checked the details but, over the last five weeks he's been a monster.

Great work, as always. Thanks.

 

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Jalen Hurts (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (5)
5. Baker Mayfield (9), over downgraded last week. There could be some volume concerns, but he's rushing again, and matchups are pristine.
6. Jayden Daniels (4), sure he's technically coming off his best week, but he (and maybe this is more Kingsbury's playcalling) and the offense really struggled until a miracle 4th quarter. That's essentially 2 Hail Mary TDs for Daniels which I think has covered up some scoring issues. This is a team that runs at the GL, and while maybe that will be Daniels, it feels like they'd prefer it not to be.

Tier 3:
7. Patrick Mahomes (8)
8. Kyler Murray (7)
9. Justin Herbert (6), probably pushed him a little too high last week. Just not enough weapons to compete with the tier 2 guys.

Tier 4:
10. Jordan Love (12)
11. Bo Nix (11)
12. CJ Stroud (13)

Tier 5:
13. Brock Purdy (10), more of an injury downgrade. Its possible he plays this week, and even injured he should be better than Allen was, but he's unlikely to be as effective as he was earlier in the year.
14. Tua Tagovailoa (NR), 10 TDs over last 4, including 7 in last 2 against lesser defenses. Miami likes to throw inside the 10, and that was always a reason why I kinda liked him this preseason, was because their rush TD/pass TD splits were always unsustainable.
15. Kirk Cousins (NR), bye week came at the perfect time as he needed London and especially Mooney to get healthy. Really nice schedule down the stretch, including LV/NYG/Was in the playoff weeks.

Dropped off: Geno Smith (14), tough schedule, and under 20 points in 5 of last 6. Jared Goff (15), pretty much the same as Geno. Just WAY to boom/bust.

Sam Darnold needs some love. 9th in passing yards and 4th in TDs. His remaining SOS is less than ideal but is supporting cast is top notch.

Darnold was in the 20-15 cutoff. Probably would have been 17 or 18. That Jags game is really sticking with me. I know its just 1 bad game, but it was literally against the 32nd ranked defense against QBs, and he looked horrific. Despite his yards and TDs, I find it REALLY hard to trust him as anything more than a spot starter, or QBBC guy. Maybe having Hockenson and especially Addison stepping up prevents those eggs going forward?

 

[travdogg]

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

I haven't heard a thing about it, so I ranked him as though he'll be fine. Obviously he'll drop if it turns out to more than just something that knocked him out of the Ravens game.

We just need to keep the poor guy away from the Ravens at all costs. Dude just sees John Harbaugh and gets hurt.

 

[travdogg]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

I disagree. I think the TDs are no lock to come for Puka. I think Stafford CLEARLY favors Kupp in the redzone and always has. That's where the difference is for me. I absolutely agree Puka will have more yards going forward. I absolutely think Kupp will have more TDs. I also kind of trust Kupp's health a little more, if only because even since he's been back, Puka is favoring his knee every week after he makes some diving catch or whatever.

I'm picking nits myself, but I just trust Kupp more.

 

[travdogg]

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

Agree with this. Bo Nix is ranked #11 and his #1 target is ranked #28? I can't compute.

Since week 8, Sutton has seen 8+ targets and double digit targets each game. He just came off a pretty good showing against the Raiders.

His floor is 15 points and ceiling is probably 28. I'll take a guaranteed 20 point guy over almost everyone on the PPG list above.

Some of that WR10 on the season is a case of so many WRs missing multiple games. Sutton has been a high-end WR3, yes, he's been hot lately, but I feel like we've seen this before with Sutton, he had a crazy TD streak last season even. Its possible if it were say, Troy Franklin doing the exact thing, I'd have him ranked higher than I do Sutton, but I can't help but be waiting for the other shoe to drop a bit.

Guaranteed 20-point guy is really pushing it. He's hit 20 points twice all season, and that was last week against the awful Raiders, and against a poor Ravens pass D, and that had a TD pass involved to get there. I think he and Mooney are pretty similar, its just Mooney's hot streak came a little earlier.

 

[travdogg]

How has Hunter Henry been a top 10 TE all season, and I don't think he's ever touched your rankings this year?

He's been in the 12-15 range a couple times, but he has zero upside. He's scored 1 TD since Maye took over and has 1 game over 63 yards during that stretch. He has hit 9 PPR points in all but 1 game since Maye took over, but is that really valuable?

He was my first cut going from 20-15. I see more value in guys like Kraft or Ertz who also missed the cut.

 

[travdogg]

I own Tyreek Hill and question if he should be ranked that high. Can you please tell me what I'm missing here?

I've mentioned a few times about being perhaps a little bias against certain guys, because they've been flashes in the pan before, well Hill is the opposite of that. I keep waiting for the big game, and it hasn't really happened, but I also think he's guy who could string multiple big games together if/when it does. He's still the guys who leads the Dolphins in targets, catches, and yards. He's had some bad TD luck, and has just missed several big plays.

Waddle got going last week, maybe its Hill's turn. I'd love to have more stats or whatever to point to, but this one is more on feel. He's too good to not do more, even with a wrist injury. The closest I can come to stats wise, is he had 72 yards, and/or a TD in every Tua game until last week.

 

[travdogg]

I would love to hear your argument for CeeDee moving up a spot. I mean, lots of targets but at 6 yards a pop...?

And, I think you're behind the curve on Courtland Sutton. I haven't checked the details but, over the last five weeks he's been a monster.

Great work, as always. Thanks.

With Lamb, its 3 things.

1. Volume, Lamb leads the NFL in catches and hasn't had a game with under 10 targets in 2 months.

2. Schedule, other than Philly in week 17 (and that game might have chase mode/garbage time) Lamb has a great schedule going forward.

3. Talent, he simply gets open a ton. He's actually had a ton of bad luck even this past week, where had a 25-yard catch taken off the board, or that TD that he lost in the sun.

All of these things combine to give Lamb an extremely high floor. He may not have the #1 overall ceiling he had with Dak, but he's still a solid WR1. I don't think the 6 yards a pop thing is a sign of things to come (he was at 12 the week before) and I'd also add that like I said a couple weeks ago, Cooper Rush isn't as bad as he looked against Philly, that's just as tough a defense as there is right now, and it was bad luck/timing for his 1st start.

Truth be told, I think Dallas is being slept on a bit. They probably have lost too many games to make a playoff push, but I could see them finishing with 7-8 wins. Defense is clearly better and getting healthier. It was noticeably better getting Parsons/Bland back. Should get another boost from Diggs, and maybe Lawrence. They aren't throwing in the towel, so I'm not worried about Rush being replaced by Lance at any point.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Jalen Hurts (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (5)
5. Baker Mayfield (9), over downgraded last week. There could be some volume concerns, but he's rushing again, and matchups are pristine.
6. Jayden Daniels (4), sure he's technically coming off his best week, but he (and maybe this is more Kingsbury's playcalling) and the offense really struggled until a miracle 4th quarter. That's essentially 2 Hail Mary TDs for Daniels which I think has covered up some scoring issues. This is a team that runs at the GL, and while maybe that will be Daniels, it feels like they'd prefer it not to be.

Tier 3:
7. Patrick Mahomes (8)
8. Kyler Murray (7)
9. Justin Herbert (6), probably pushed him a little too high last week. Just not enough weapons to compete with the tier 2 guys.

Tier 4:
10. Jordan Love (12)
11. Bo Nix (11)
12. CJ Stroud (13)

Tier 5:
13. Brock Purdy (10), more of an injury downgrade. Its possible he plays this week, and even injured he should be better than Allen was, but he's unlikely to be as effective as he was earlier in the year.
14. Tua Tagovailoa (NR), 10 TDs over last 4, including 7 in last 2 against lesser defenses. Miami likes to throw inside the 10, and that was always a reason why I kinda liked him this preseason, was because their rush TD/pass TD splits were always unsustainable.
15. Kirk Cousins (NR), bye week came at the perfect time as he needed London and especially Mooney to get healthy. Really nice schedule down the stretch, including LV/NYG/Was in the playoff weeks.

Dropped off: Geno Smith (14), tough schedule, and under 20 points in 5 of last 6. Jared Goff (15), pretty much the same as Geno. Just WAY to boom/bust.

Sam Darnold needs some love. 9th in passing yards and 4th in TDs. His remaining SOS is less than ideal but is supporting cast is top notch.

Darnold was in the 20-15 cutoff. Probably would have been 17 or 18. That Jags game is really sticking with me. I know it’s just 1 bad game, but it was literally against the 32nd ranked defense against QBs, and he looked horrific. Despite his yards and TDs, I find it REALLY hard to trust him as anything more than a spot starter, or QBBC guy. Maybe having Hockenson and especially Addison stepping up prevents those eggs going forward?

I agree with what you are saying, and I do not think he is a good real-life QB, but with how bad the QB play has been this year, at least from a fantasy perspective, I think he stays in the top 10 all season. Nick Mullens put up massive numbers in this offense last year.

Edit: I need to add that I appreciate the conversation and I am in no way attacking your list. I do like to get different opinions to compare against my own.

 

[Stoneworker]

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

Agree with this. Bo Nix is ranked #11 and his #1 target is ranked #28? I can't compute.

Since week 8, Sutton has seen 8+ targets and double digit targets each game. He just came off a pretty good showing against the Raiders.

His floor is 15 points and ceiling is probably 28. I'll take a guaranteed 20 point guy over almost everyone on the PPG list above.

Some of that WR10 on the season is a case of so many WRs missing multiple games. Sutton has been a high-end WR3, yes, he's been hot lately, but I feel like we've seen this before with Sutton, he had a crazy TD streak last season even. Its possible if it were say, Troy Franklin doing the exact thing, I'd have him ranked higher than I do Sutton, but I can't help but be waiting for the other shoe to drop a bit.

Guaranteed 20-point guy is really pushing it. He's hit 20 points twice all season, and that was last week against the awful Raiders, and against a poor Ravens pass D, and that had a TD pass involved to get there. I think he and Mooney are pretty similar, its just Mooney's hot streak came a little earlier.

Sample Wk13 ROS rankings for Sutton:

FBG: WR17
Yahoo: WR12
DraftSharks: WR19
FantasyPros: WR19
ESPN: WR16

So clearly your WR28 is a major outlier based solely on ""waiting for the other shoe to drop." But IMO more likely you're way behind the curve since three weeks ago you had him in the WR40-50 range and I had to bug you multiple times just to get him on the list.

All good. It's awesome you do these and publish for others to critique but this one is a head-scratcher given Bo Nix's ascendant trajectory and Sutton's clear role as WR1.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

Agree with this. Bo Nix is ranked #11 and his #1 target is ranked #28? I can't compute.

Since week 8, Sutton has seen 8+ targets and double digit targets each game. He just came off a pretty good showing against the Raiders.

His floor is 15 points and ceiling is probably 28. I'll take a guaranteed 20 point guy over almost everyone on the PPG list above.

Some of that WR10 on the season is a case of so many WRs missing multiple games. Sutton has been a high-end WR3, yes, he's been hot lately, but I feel like we've seen this before with Sutton, he had a crazy TD streak last season even. Its possible if it were say, Troy Franklin doing the exact thing, I'd have him ranked higher than I do Sutton, but I can't help but be waiting for the other shoe to drop a bit.

Guaranteed 20-point guy is really pushing it. He's hit 20 points twice all season, and that was last week against the awful Raiders, and against a poor Ravens pass D, and that had a TD pass involved to get there. I think he and Mooney are pretty similar, its just Mooney's hot streak came a little earlier.

Sample Wk13 ROS rankings for Sutton:

FBG: WR17
Yahoo: WR12
DraftSharks: WR19
FantasyPros: WR19
ESPN: WR16

So clearly your WR27 is a major outlier based solely on ""waiting for the other shoe to drop." But IMO more likely you're way behind the curve since three weeks ago you had him in the WR40-50 range and I had to bug you multiple times just to get him on the list.

All good. It's awesome you do these and publish for others to critique but this one is a head-scratcher given Bo Nix's ascendant trajectory and Sutton's clear role as WR1.

Absolutely not a knock on Travdogg. What you do with this list is great. I utilize this a lot to compare with my "trade targets".

I just think Sutton has had moments. Bo Nix being ranked QB11 for ROS and his #1 target being ranked #28 doesn't compute. While I know Sutton doesn't average 20PPG, it does seem like his worst game is going to be 8 for 80 and his best game includes some TDs.

Personally, I chase volume over anything with WRs and this guy has seen the volume. I own him and Pickens as my WR2 and WR3 and I would be more willing to trade Pickens than I would Sutton, though... I'll probably hold both.

 

[Payne]

Chase Brown and Jonnu Smith are way too low.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Chase Brown and Jonnu Smith are way too low.

Brown dropping 6 spots with his bye now behind him is a bit odd.

 

[need2know]

Aaron jones has best week in a month and drops 4 spots

 

[Gally]

Aaron jones has best week in a month and drops 4 spots

But his usage seems inconsistent. I am a Vikes fan and his game use week to week is very strange. Some could be injury related but there are times when Akers was closing out games. Also seems like KOC want to throw the ball inside the 10 as last week was the first rushing TD in over a month. I don't trust his usage right now. I see him as a solid floor but no real upside guy at this time.

 

[travdogg]

Aaron jones has best week in a month and drops 4 spots

But his usage seems inconsistent. I am a Vikes fan and his game use week to week is very strange. Some could be injury related but there are times when Akers was closing out games. Also seems like KOC want to throw the ball inside the 10 as last week was the first rushing TD in over a month. I don't trust his usage right now. I see him as a solid floor but no real upside guy at this time.

Said pretty much what I would have. I've always liked Jones, but he's just an RB2, he popped against the Bears and that's great, but I don't think it means anything about him going forward.

 

[need2know]

Aaron jones has best week in a month and drops 4 spots

But his usage seems inconsistent. I am a Vikes fan and his game use week to week is very strange. Some could be injury related but there are times when Akers was closing out games. Also seems like KOC want to throw the ball inside the 10 as last week was the first rushing TD in over a month. I don't trust his usage right now. I see him as a solid floor but no real upside guy at this time.

Good info

 

[the spanker]

Aaron jones has best week in a month and drops 4 spots

But his usage seems inconsistent. I am a Vikes fan and his game use week to week is very strange. Some could be injury related but there are times when Akers was closing out games. Also seems like KOC want to throw the ball inside the 10 as last week was the first rushing TD in over a month. I don't trust his usage right now. I see him as a solid floor but no real upside guy at this time.

Said pretty much what I would have. I've always liked Jones, but he's just an RB2, he popped against the Bears and that's great, but I don't think it means anything about him going forward.

Disagree here. I would have to look at the stats but I think he got all the touches except two so he's back to bell cow status with all the opportunties. Hopefully after getting injured, he's getting his rythmn and sea legs back under him.

Would you call JJ a WR2 coming off his worse game (and really underperforming in light of Jones injury) a WR2 going forward?

 

[Chaka]

I'

28. Courtland Sutton (29)

This makes little sense.

Sutton is WR4 over the past 5 weeks and #10 overall on the season in PPR (FantasyPros).

Even after a slow start, on a PPG basis Sutton is still ahead of Mooney, Reed, Evans, D. Adams, McConkey, Moore, Ridley, Pickens and M. Harrison Jr.

Agree with this. Bo Nix is ranked #11 and his #1 target is ranked #28? I can't compute.

Since week 8, Sutton has seen 8+ targets and double digit targets each game. He just came off a pretty good showing against the Raiders.

His floor is 15 points and ceiling is probably 28. I'll take a guaranteed 20 point guy over almost everyone on the PPG list above.

Some of that WR10 on the season is a case of so many WRs missing multiple games. Sutton has been a high-end WR3, yes, he's been hot lately, but I feel like we've seen this before with Sutton, he had a crazy TD streak last season even. Its possible if it were say, Troy Franklin doing the exact thing, I'd have him ranked higher than I do Sutton, but I can't help but be waiting for the other shoe to drop a bit.

Guaranteed 20-point guy is really pushing it. He's hit 20 points twice all season, and that was last week against the awful Raiders, and against a poor Ravens pass D, and that had a TD pass involved to get there. I think he and Mooney are pretty similar, its just Mooney's hot streak came a little earlier.

I dig what you're saying here but this doesn't feel like last year. He had one game over 77 yards in 2023. He had two games over seven targets. He was highly TD dependent on 2023.

He's had eight or more targets in each of the last five games, and three of seven games prior to that.

No, this feels like Nix has found his guy and Sean "freaking" Payton is very much on board with that idea.

I'm getting a Marques Colston vibe here, more than anything else.

I think next week Sutton makes the biggest move up your board.

 

[fatness]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley (1)
2. Derrick Henry (7)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (8)
4. Alvin Kamara (5)
5. Bijan Robinson (2)
6. Kyren Williams (10)
7. Breece Hall (3)

Tier 2:
8. Joe Mixon (6)
9. Josh Jacobs (12)
10. De'Von Achane (9)
11. Christian McCaffrey (4), just doesn't really look right. 3.4 YPC in 3 games since his return. Injuries are hurting everyone in SF other than Kittle.

Tier 3:
12. Chuba Hubbard (22), this has been long overdue, I've been being too stubborn here, waiting on Brooks, underrating the Panthers offense, and just generally not being high enough of Hubbard. The extension was a tipoff on how they feel. Hubbard has been a low-end RB1 all year, and other than 1 game against Philly has a pretty solid remaining schedule.
13. Jonathan Taylor (14)
14. James Conner (13)

Tier 4:
15. James Cook (18)
16. David Montgomery (17)
17. Kenneth Walker (11), speaking of long overdue. I've been treating Walker like the talent he is, not the situation he's in. Seattle can't run block at all. Every yard Walker gets he earns. He's basically Barkley in NY, but instead of the offense being built around him, its a passing team. Can blow up any given week but is prone to being forgotten about.

Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (23)
19. Isiah Pacheco (24)
20. Aaron Jones (16)
21. Chase Brown (15)

Tier 6:
22. D'Andre Swift (25)
23. Tony Pollard (27)
24. Bucky Irving (29)

Tier 7:
25. Rhamondre Stevenson (21)
26. Rachaad White (28)
27. Tyrone Tracy (19), 3 fumbles in 2 games, one of which basically lost a game by itself, makes it likely he's back to a more evenly split RBBC. Offense is also clearly worse without Jones, which was always going to be the case.

Tier 8:
28. Brian Robinson (20), just seems to have trouble getting and staying healthy. I'm expecting close to a 50-50 split with him and Ekeler down the stretch, which puts them both in solid flex territory.
29. Najee Harris (26)
30. Austin Ekeler (NR), high-end RB2 whenever Robinson has missed, and has a role otherwise. Did have a concussion, but haven't heard anything to suggest its a major concern. Worst case seems like he misses 1 game, and comes back fresh after the week 14 bye.

Dropped off: Rico Dowdle (30), nice game against Washington, and makes for a solid flex in games the Cowboys lead in. That should be the case again against the NYG on Thanksgiving, but beyond that and Carolina, I don't envision too many Dallas leads.

I agree with you about Kenneth Walker.
No Nick Chubb?

 

[Ray_T]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

I disagree. I think the TDs are no lock to come for Puka. I think Stafford CLEARLY favors Kupp in the redzone and always has. That's where the difference is for me. I absolutely agree Puka will have more yards going forward. I absolutely think Kupp will have more TDs. I also kind of trust Kupp's health a little more, if only because even since he's been back, Puka is favoring his knee every week after he makes some diving catch or whatever.

I'm picking nits myself, but I just trust Kupp more.

I would agree with this. Kupp seems to be the better red zone target. That is enough to make the difference. but its close enough you could literally say preferring one over the other could be a matter of preference and his rankings reflect this.

 

[Bri]

Great job as always

 

[Bri]

Titans are the top pass defense.
Everyone seems to project Daniels and McLaurin to do well.

There's a definite issue there and it's super common.

 

[travdogg]

Titans are the top pass defense.
Everyone seems to project Daniels and McLaurin to do well.

There's a definite issue there and it's super common.

I think that top pass defense ranking is misleading. I think they are more of a league average pass defense, that has had some easy matchups, and some weird games.

They haven't faced much in the way of good passers. They got Miami without Tua, Green Bay without Love (though Willis kinda tore them up) Goff in a screwy game where the Lions started like 4 drives inside the Titans 20 yard line (and he threw 3 TDs) Josh Allen went for 323-2. Sam Darnold went for 246-2.

I'm treating Daniels as a high-end QB1 this week, and McLaurin maybe as a slight downgrade to a high-end WR2.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley (1)
2. Derrick Henry (7)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (8)
4. Alvin Kamara (5)
5. Bijan Robinson (2)
6. Kyren Williams (10)
7. Breece Hall (3)

Tier 2:
8. Joe Mixon (6)
9. Josh Jacobs (12)
10. De'Von Achane (9)
11. Christian McCaffrey (4), just doesn't really look right. 3.4 YPC in 3 games since his return. Injuries are hurting everyone in SF other than Kittle.

Tier 3:
12. Chuba Hubbard (22), this has been long overdue, I've been being too stubborn here, waiting on Brooks, underrating the Panthers offense, and just generally not being high enough of Hubbard. The extension was a tipoff on how they feel. Hubbard has been a low-end RB1 all year, and other than 1 game against Philly has a pretty solid remaining schedule.
13. Jonathan Taylor (14)
14. James Conner (13)

Tier 4:
15. James Cook (18)
16. David Montgomery (17)
17. Kenneth Walker (11), speaking of long overdue. I've been treating Walker like the talent he is, not the situation he's in. Seattle can't run block at all. Every yard Walker gets he earns. He's basically Barkley in NY, but instead of the offense being built around him, its a passing team. Can blow up any given week but is prone to being forgotten about.

Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (23)
19. Isiah Pacheco (24)
20. Aaron Jones (16)
21. Chase Brown (15)

Tier 6:
22. D'Andre Swift (25)
23. Tony Pollard (27)
24. Bucky Irving (29)

Tier 7:
25. Rhamondre Stevenson (21)
26. Rachaad White (28)
27. Tyrone Tracy (19), 3 fumbles in 2 games, one of which basically lost a game by itself, makes it likely he's back to a more evenly split RBBC. Offense is also clearly worse without Jones, which was always going to be the case.

Tier 8:
28. Brian Robinson (20), just seems to have trouble getting and staying healthy. I'm expecting close to a 50-50 split with him and Ekeler down the stretch, which puts them both in solid flex territory.
29. Najee Harris (26)
30. Austin Ekeler (NR), high-end RB2 whenever Robinson has missed, and has a role otherwise. Did have a concussion, but haven't heard anything to suggest its a major concern. Worst case seems like he misses 1 game, and comes back fresh after the week 14 bye.

Dropped off: Rico Dowdle (30), nice game against Washington, and makes for a solid flex in games the Cowboys lead in. That should be the case again against the NYG on Thanksgiving, but beyond that and Carolina, I don't envision too many Dallas leads.

I agree with you about Kenneth Walker.
No Nick Chubb?

I love Chubb as a player. I think he's one of the better RBs of the last 20 years. Top-10 for sure. However, he's not the same player post knee injury, and the Browns run blocking is awful.

He was one of the last omissions, but like, I don't see his 2-TD game in the snow against the Steelers to be a sign of things to come. He's a guy I doubt I'd even wanna flex this week against Denver.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (2)
2. Jalen Hurts (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (5)
5. Baker Mayfield (9), over downgraded last week. There could be some volume concerns, but he's rushing again, and matchups are pristine.
6. Jayden Daniels (4), sure he's technically coming off his best week, but he (and maybe this is more Kingsbury's playcalling) and the offense really struggled until a miracle 4th quarter. That's essentially 2 Hail Mary TDs for Daniels which I think has covered up some scoring issues. This is a team that runs at the GL, and while maybe that will be Daniels, it feels like they'd prefer it not to be.

Tier 3:
7. Patrick Mahomes (8)

Rank	Name	Age	Exp	G	Cmp	Att	Cm%	PYd	Y/Att	PTD	Int	Rsh	RshYd	RshTD	FP/G	FantPt
1	Caleb Williams CHI	23.0	1.0	1	20	39	51.3	256	6.56	3	0	4	39	0	26.1	26.1
2	Tua Tagovailoa MIA	26.0	5.0	1	37	46	80.4	365	7.93	2	0	2	6	0	23.2	23.2
3	Aidan O'Connell LV	26.0	2.0	1	23	35	65.7	340	9.71	2	0	1	0	0	21.6	21.6
4	Jordan Love GB	26.0	5.0	1	21	28	75.0	274	9.79	2	0	0	0	0	19.0	19.0
5	Jared Goff DET	30.0	9.0	1	21	34	61.8	221	6.50	2	0	1	1	0	16.9	16.9
6	Drew Lock NYG	28.0	6.0	1	21	32	65.6	178	5.56	0	1	4	57	1	16.8	16.8
7	Patrick Mahomes II KC	29.0	8.0	1	26	46	56.5	306	6.65	1	0	2	4	0	16.6	16.6
8	Cooper Rush DAL	31.0	8.0	1	21	36	58.3	195	5.42	1	0	5	0	0	11.8	11.8

Kind of ironic that he's currently the 7th ranked QB for week 13.

Patrick continues to torpedo FF seasons.

 

[Donnybrook]

Jordan Addison doesn't rank coming off a career high.

 

[travdogg]

Jordan Addison doesn't rank coming off a career high.

He was the last omission. The career high game coming when JJ went 2-27 makes me a little squeamish, as I doubt JJ will have another game anywhere near that low again this season.

I think Addison is the clear #3 target in Minnesota, but open to being proven wrong on that. If Addison were to move up much, it means I have JJ or Hockenson too high.

 

[Chaka]

12. CJ Stroud (13)

Another week being outperformed by Sam Darnold.

Darnold is now something like 9-2-1 H2H with Stroud on the season.

Not saying Darnold should 100% be on The List next week but, CJ should probably be off of it.

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

FBG has him projected for 14 pts next week.

I think he'll be out 2-4 weeks and should be off the list.

Drops mic.

See ya next week

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

FBG has him projected for 14 pts next week.

I think he'll be out 2-4 weeks and should be off the list.

Drops mic.

See ya next week

Classy

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier 3:
8. Cooper Kupp (7)
11. Puka Nacua (11)

Picking nits, but if you watched the last game it's obvious that Puka is the top dogs.

Last 3 games:

Puka - 14, 9, 13 targets for 9, 7, 9 recpts and 338 yd
Kupp - 7, 10, 11 targets for 7, 6, 8 recpts and 246 yd

Matter of fact, Puka should be the tier 1 guy he was drafted at in the pre-season. That volume is massive. The TDs will come and I predict 3 25 point plus games over the last 6 games. He should be right along side ASB.

Dobbins with a big bump 23 to 18. Not worried about knee?

FBG has him projected for 14 pts next week.

I think he'll be out 2-4 weeks and should be off the list.

Drops mic.

See ya next week

Classy

Cut me some slack, only place I’ve been correct all week