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Travdogg's positional rankings from week 9 onward (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (1)
Tier 2:
2. Jalen Hurts (2)
Tier 3:
3. Patrick Mahomes (3)
4. Lamar Jackson (4)
5. Joe Burrow (5), not too worried about him or the Bengals offense despite the rough game against the Browns, who they always struggle with for whatever reason.
Tier 4:
6. Kyler Murray (6)
7. Justin Herbert (7)
Tier 5:
8. Tua Tagovailoa (10), 2 QB1 weeks since returning from injury. That said, his efficiency is highly unlikely to stay at this level, so ceiling is somewhat limited without more pass heavy lean.
9. Geno Smith (9)
10. Tom Brady (8), he's just missed on like 5 TD's the last 2 games. I'm confident he'll turn it around, he doesn't look washed at all, but patience is being tested.
11. Justin Fields (NR), 4 straight QB1 weeks, and now added Chase Claypool. This might still be underrating him.
Tier 6:
12. Kirk Cousins (11)
13. Dak Prescott (14)
14. Jimmy Garoppolo (13)
15.Trevor Lawrence (15)


Dropped off: Derek Carr (12), I don't know if its the absence of Waller, or the offense running through Jacobs, but Carr just isn't getting it done at all. 1 top-12 game in his last 4.
 
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travdogg

Footballguy
RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (3), well he certainly looked like he figured out the offense pretty quick. He's already the centerpiece 2 weeks in.
Tier 2:
2. Saquon Barkley (1)
3. Josh Jacobs (5)
4. Austin Ekeler (4)
Tier 3:
5. Derrick Henry (6)
6. Jonathan Taylor (2)
7. Nick Chubb (7)
8. Travis Etienne (11)
9. Kenneth Walker (8)
Tier 4:
10. Dameon Pierce (16), quietly has stopped being pulled on passing downs. If the offense takes even a small step forward, he'll start popping top-10 weeks left and right. Close enough to be a flag plant?
11. Rhamondre Stevenson (15), he's the starter, and he's also the #2 option in the passing game. Has top-6 upside if the offense improves a bit as Mac Jones gets healthier.
12. Alvin Kamara (10)
13. Aaron Jones (17), been more involved the last 2 weeks, and has been an RB1 both weeks. Is that a sign of things to come, or just random variance?
14. D'Andre Swift (14)
15. Dalvin Cook (12)
16. Leonard Fournette (9), starting to feel like Najee Harris in a better offense. Volume dependent.
17. Joe Mixon (13)
Tier 5:
18. Raheem Mostert (19)
19. James Conner (22)
20. Miles Sanders (20)
21. Devin Singletary (21)
Tier 6:
22. D'Onta Foreman (NR), hate having him this high, and honestly would be looking to trade him if I had him, but RB is thinning out quite a bit, and he's earned a spot. Wouldn't be shocked if Hubbard took half the work when he's back.
23. Najee Harris (23)
24. David Montgomery (24)
25. Ezekiel Elliott (25)
Tier 7:
26. Tony Pollard (26)
27. Melvin Gordon (NR), they are insisting he's the starter, and I don't think Chase Edmonds changes that. Other than that weird benching in week 6, he's been in the RB2 range since Williams got hurt.
28. Jamaal Williams (NR), the most TD dependent player at RB, that said, he's sure scoring a lot of them. Has a bit of a CEH feeling, but its a thinner position this year.
29. Khalil Herbert (NR), the Pollard to Monty's Zeke. He's probably not as talented as Pollard though, which isn't a knock, I've long thought Pollard might be a top-5ish RB.
30. Tyler Allgeier (30)

Dropped off: Darrell Henderson (18), as much as we'd like there to be, there simply isn't a RB worth using on this team. Might be a 3-man RBBC, on a team that can't run well. Damien Harris (27), Stevenson is icing him out a bit as a runner and had already taken all the receiving work. Michael Carter (28), still the Jets RB I'd want the most, but this isn't offense, where Ty Johnson can be involved, and he was last week. James Robinson (29), he'll likely move past Ty Johnson next week, but its clear Breece Hall was the offense.
 
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travdogg

Footballguy
WR
Tier 1:
1. Cooper Kupp (1)
Tier 2:
2. Stefon Diggs (2)
3. Tyreek Hill (5)
4. Justin Jefferson (4)
Tier 3:
5. Davante Adams (6)
Tier 4:
6. AJ Brown (9)
7. Ja'Marr Chase (3), hesitant to move him too low, because he's arguably WR1 when healthy, and he may only be out through week 10 bye. Probably not a bad buy-low for 5-3 or better teams.
8. Tee Higgins (8)
9. Keenan Allen (14)
10. DeAndre Hopkins (10)
11. DK Metcalf (15)
12. Amon-Ra St. Brown (7)
Tier 5:
13. Mike Evans (16)
14. Jaylen Waddle (20)
15. CeeDee Lamb (11)
16. Amari Cooper (13)
Tier 6:
17. Tyler Lockett (18)
18. Deebo Samuel (21)
19. Chris Olave (22)
Tier 7:
20. DeVonta Smith (23)
21. Chris Godwin (12), just isn't being used down the field at all. Volume is nice but hasn't topped 95 yards or gotten a score despite 10+ targets in 4 of last 5. Just has a low ceiling.
22. Terry McLaurin (31)
23. Michael Pittman (25)
24. DJ Moore (37), back-to-back WR1 weeks since CMC left. Still not totally sold on a PJ Walker led offense but have never questioned Moore's talent.
Tier 8:
25. JuJu Smith-Schuster (26)
26. Jakobi Meyers (40), very high floor, and suddenly a TD machine, with 3 in last 4.
Tier 9:
27. Gabriel Davis (29)
28. Tyler Boyd (NR), was pushing for a spot on the list before Chase got hurt. Is a WR2 as long as he's out.
29. Adam Thielen (30)
30. Curtis Samuel (32)
31. Allen Lazard (33)
32. Courtland Sutton (24)
33. Jerry Jeudy (34)
34. Diontae Johnson (35)
Tier 10:
35. Mike Williams (17), probably out until week 12, will go back to around WR17 upon return.
36. Hollywood Brown (NR), eligible to come back in week 11, though that may be optimistic. He's a WR2 upon return and likely a boon to the Murray when he does.
37. Rondale Moore (NR), in the meantime, Moore is a solid WR3, who had a rough week 7, but has been solid otherwise. Almost had a TD in that week 7 game too.
38. Christian Kirk (19), looking like that first 3 games was a mirage. Offense has made Etienne the centerpiece, and defenses have been treating Kirk as clear #1.
39. Wan'Dale Robinson (39)
40. Brandin Cooks (38)

Dropped off: Rashod Bateman (27), that foot might just wash out his season. Michael Thomas (28), starting to get a Julio Jones from last year vibe. Even when he comes back, will he really be healthy? Romeo Doubs (36), made a great TD catch, but still feels like its all or nothing, and he's still in Rodgers doghouse a bit.
 
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travdogg

Footballguy
TE
Tier 1:
1. Mark Andrews (2)
2. Travis Kelce (1)
Tier 2:
3. Dallas Goedert (3)
4. Zach Ertz (4), has seen his targets go down drastically since Hopkins came back, but I don't think that is a sign, more just variance. Ertz is still a key in this offense, especially in the redzone.
5. George Kittle (5)
6. Dalton Schultz (13), Dak just loves the guy. He's the clear #2 passing option after Lamb and honestly maybe more of a 1B.
7. TJ Hockenson (7)
8. Darren Waller (6)
Tier 3:
9. Hayden Hurst (14), gets a boost from Chase being out, and just being in a pass happy offense in general. Honestly, 9-15 could probably be in any order, so I'll lean toward the guy catching passes from Joe Burrow.
10. Gerald Everett (10)
11. Kyle Pitts (NR), his talent has never been an issue, and his target share is strong, but Mariota has 179 attempts in 8 games, 22 per game. Tough to have any consistency in this offense.
12. Evan Engram (15)
13. Pat Freiermuth (12)
14. Taysom Hill (11)
15. Greg Dulcich (NR), love his talent, and 3 straight TE1 weeks, but still want nothing to do with this offense if I can help it. Will be tough not to move up if this keeps up.

Dropped off: Tyler Higbee (8), his routes and targets have been way down, some of that is due to injury, but some of that feels like they just need him to help pass block. David Njoku (9), last week, I said I'd be willing to sit on his 2-5 week timeline, but upon further reflection, and a few other TEs playing well, I've rethought that. He's probably around TE10 upon his return though.
 
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Pietaster2

Footballguy
RB:
6. Jonathan Taylor (2)
Great work as always. I respect and appreciate the amount of work you put into these threads.

I see you're still higher than most on JT. I'm curious to know what your rationale is for keeping him this high. Think he'll return to form as he gets healthier?
 

travdogg

Footballguy
RB:
6. Jonathan Taylor (2)
Great work as always. I respect and appreciate the amount of work you put into these threads.

I see you're still higher than most on JT. I'm curious to know what your rationale is for keeping him this high. Think he'll return to form as he gets healthier?
I think he'll play better as he gets further removed from injury, he's in a division where nobody really stops the run, and I think his receiving could spike a bit with Hines gone. Only real concern is QB sinking the offense.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Pierce 10-35, worst week since opener, moves up 6 spots

Kamara scores 3 TDs, moves down two spots

It’s like production gets punished by your rankings lol
In this case, Kamara had an awesome game, but nothing really changed about him or his role, he just played a team that had no interest in competing last week. Whereas Pierce is suddenly a 3-down RB, which is a huge bonus if he's not losing snaps to Rex Burkhead anymore.
 

LionOfGosforth

Footballguy
Pierce 10-35, worst week since opener, moves up 6 spots

Kamara scores 3 TDs, moves down two spots

It’s like production gets punished by your rankings lol
In this case, Kamara had an awesome game, but nothing really changed about him or his role, he just played a team that had no interest in competing last week. Whereas Pierce is suddenly a 3-down RB, which is a huge bonus if he's not losing snaps to Rex Burkhead anymore.

This is why I enjoy this thread so much, there's always solid logic behind the (initially surprising) changes. For example, I do not understand Dalvin Cook having his best game of the year and dropping 3 spots but i'm sure the reasoning behind it is solid.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Pierce 10-35, worst week since opener, moves up 6 spots

Kamara scores 3 TDs, moves down two spots

It’s like production gets punished by your rankings lol
In this case, Kamara had an awesome game, but nothing really changed about him or his role, he just played a team that had no interest in competing last week. Whereas Pierce is suddenly a 3-down RB, which is a huge bonus if he's not losing snaps to Rex Burkhead anymore.

This is why I enjoy this thread so much, there's always solid logic behind the (initially surprising) changes. For example, I do not understand Dalvin Cook having his best game of the year and dropping 3 spots but i'm sure the reasoning behind it is solid.
Thanks. In Cook's case it might be just a worry that is unfounded, but I think the Vikings could get a little more pass heavy, especially around the GL, with the Hockenson addition.

In an effort to show more clarity of rankings, I added a tier list.
 

RealReactions

Footballguy
Kelce goes on bye while Mandrews puts up nothing special (3-33 on 5 targets) and somehow drops? Kelce is a tier above everyone else and it isn't even close. Kelce has 1 less game played and is still 20 points above him in standard/ 25points in full ppr. This also is not even counting that Mandrews is dealing with multiple injuries and has a more increased chance to miss future games. Just crazy trying to convince anyone that Mandrews has better future value over Kelce.
 

zoonation

Footballguy
Pierce 10-35, worst week since opener, moves up 6 spots

Kamara scores 3 TDs, moves down two spots

It’s like production gets punished by your rankings lol
In this case, Kamara had an awesome game, but nothing really changed about him or his role, he just played a team that had no interest in competing last week. Whereas Pierce is suddenly a 3-down RB, which is a huge bonus if he's not losing snaps to Rex Burkhead anymore.
This is not really a compelling argument. Kamara is a world class RB and the team is now committed to throwing him the ball again. On pace for 80 catches. New Orleans also scores points and plays in a junk division. Houston is a dumpster fire and Pierce will be lucky to score 5 tds on the year.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Kelce goes on bye while Mandrews puts up nothing special (3-33 on 5 targets) and somehow drops? Kelce is a tier above everyone else and it isn't even close. Kelce has 1 less game played and is still 20 points above him in standard/ 25points in full ppr. This also is not even counting that Mandrews is dealing with multiple injuries and has a more increased chance to miss future games. Just crazy trying to convince anyone that Mandrews has better future value over Kelce.
I'm pretty 50-50 on them. In Andrews case, he's all they have. I'm taking Harbaugh at his word that Andrews is fine. But with Bateman re-injuring his foot, and nobody really stepping up, I don't think we've seen Andrews best yet, and while he's probably not a buy-low as nobody is likely selling low, he's a guy I'd be trying my damndest to acquire right now. As for that 3-33 on 5 target game, that was gonna be a monster game for Andrews, he did all that on basically 1 series. That was gonna be a 10-110-1 game for sure.

In Kelce's case, I think his point advantage is inflated a bit based off that silly 4-TD game, where the Raiders just decided not to cover him in the redzone, which combined with Kamara last week, is making me think the Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL at making any defensive adjustments. There are more mouths to feed in KC, and while I love Kelce's consistency. I think Andrews has a higher ceiling.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Pierce 10-35, worst week since opener, moves up 6 spots

Kamara scores 3 TDs, moves down two spots

It’s like production gets punished by your rankings lol
In this case, Kamara had an awesome game, but nothing really changed about him or his role, he just played a team that had no interest in competing last week. Whereas Pierce is suddenly a 3-down RB, which is a huge bonus if he's not losing snaps to Rex Burkhead anymore.
This is not really a compelling argument. Kamara is a world class RB and the team is now committed to throwing him the ball again. On pace for 80 catches. New Orleans also scores points and plays in a junk division. Houston is a dumpster fire and Pierce will be lucky to score 5 tds on the year.
Pierce has 4 TDs now, I'm pretty confident he'll have 5 by the end of the year. I think 10 is doable.

Kamara has been hot, but its been a perfect setup, Ingram going down, Thomas and Landry out, the Raiders offering no resistance.

I won't fault anyone for preferring Kamara over Pierce, I don't think they are far apart, as evidenced by the tier. Pierce is that entire offense though, and I think its possible we are seeing close to his floor right now, especially as he's taken over a 3-down role.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Couple things I'm keeping an eye on with the trade deadline guys:

Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins are guys I might move higher if Claypool and Hockenson hit the ground running. They could both get bumped up to Tua levels.

Raheem Mostert might be lower, if Jeff Wilson takes a big role. I'm kinda operating under the impression that its SF in 2020, but maybe they'll be more cautious with Mostert with a RB they like more than Edmonds.

Speaking of Edmonds, if he jumps into a major role in Denver and it becomes a 3-man RBBC, that'll probably knock Gordon off the list. Edmonds has been about the worst RB in the NFL this season from an efficiency standpoint, so he might be nothing more than more depth.

I really don't know what to expect from Singletary/Hines in Buffalo. Singletary has been very solid whenever he gets work, but its clear they don't love him. Josh Allen has never really been a checkdown QB, so I don't know how great Hines fits, but between courting McKissic, drafting Cook, and now acquiring Hines, it seems they have wanted a type. Its possible Hines ends up being the back to own in Buffalo, and its also possible he's just a 3rd down RB like he was in Indy, it wasn't just Taylor keeping Hines in a smaller role, Marlon Mack did it too.

Not sure Claypool going to Chicago changes Claypool's value much, and its not enough for me to rank George Pickens, but if it leads to more targets for Pat Freiermuth he could move up to the end of tier 2.
 
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houston

Footballguy
Seeing you rank Geno, Fields, and Dak at 9, 11, and 13 falls right in line with my thinking that they're all pretty similar. Have Smith and Fields now. Was considering trading some of my RB depth to get Dak, but I'm now wondering if I'm just as good with Smith and Fields.
 

Bozeman Bruiser

Footballguy
I don't like it when you rank my guys lower than I have them but I appreciate the explanations you give for your process. It helps me to look at my team more objectively and prevents me from shifting to autopilot just because I think my starting lineup is set for the season.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
@travdogg
Is a lot of your methodology in ROS rankings based on injured or underperforming guys returning to established production norms and guys that might be on heaters reverting back to baseline production? Do guys that have more games left to play (already had their byes) get higher slots (as they will have more games to play in if healthy)?
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Seeing you rank Geno, Fields, and Dak at 9, 11, and 13 falls right in line with my thinking that they're all pretty similar. Have Smith and Fields now. Was considering trading some of my RB depth to get Dak, but I'm now wondering if I'm just as good with Smith and Fields.
As a general rule I'd never sacrifice RB depth for a QB that in a best-case scenario could be a small upgrade.

As an aside, if you'd have told me before the season, that I'd feel great about Geno Smith as a top-10 QB and want nothing to do with Russell Wilson I'd have never believed it.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
@travdogg
Is a lot of your methodology in ROS rankings based on injured or underperforming guys returning to established production norms and guys that might be on heaters reverting back to baseline production? Do guys that have more games left to play (already had their byes) get higher slots (as they will have more games to play in if healthy)?
I tend to try and not get swayed by a great game or a bad game here or there. That is often why guys coming off great games sometimes move down, or guys coming off down weeks move up, because as I see it, I don't get points for games they already played. I tend to give a lot of weight to usage and overall team outlook as much as I do actual production. I don't really factor in games left to play, unless its going to be a big difference, like someone like Dak earlier this season, or Mike Williams right now.

I, especially now that we are 2 months in, am trying harder to factor in guys who are out for a stretch and weigh the pros and cons of owning them over others, because its a balancing act as to teams who can afford to sit on someone like Hollywood Brown, and someone who needs someone now, who might prefer a Tyler Boyd. I'm sort of operating from a standpoint of a fantasy team that is 4-4 as a bit of a catch all. Obviously, someone who is 7-1, can afford to be more patient with injured or underperforming players than someone who is 2-6.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Seeing you rank Geno, Fields, and Dak at 9, 11, and 13 falls right in line with my thinking that they're all pretty similar. Have Smith and Fields now. Was considering trading some of my RB depth to get Dak, but I'm now wondering if I'm just as good with Smith and Fields.
I wouldn’t give up a RB for a QB, i think you are fine with what you have.
 

jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
aiyuk is not in the top 40?
Despite his production of late, I think he's the #4 option in that passing game going forward. He's a top-25 WR in any game Deebo is out, but I'm expecting Deebo to be fine after the bye.
Fair enough. I personally think the Niners offense got more dynamic with C-mac getting there and the opportunities to score increased a lot. My opinion is that C-mac probably effects deebo’s role more than it does that of aiyuk. Even with deebo back- I could easily see aiyuk getting 8-9 targets per game and i think the addition of c-mac makes for higher quality targets. With that said- I appreciate and understand your point of view
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
6. Dalton Schultz (13), Dak just loves the guy. He's the clear #2 passing option after Lamb and honestly maybe more of a 1B.

Last two weeks he’s had 16 and 14 routes run & was limited all week in practices. Snap counts were 65% and 71%, route participation was 57% and 42%. It’s encouraging he’s been targeted on 35.7% and 42.8% of his routes but I question if that’s sustainable. He’s historically been targeted around 21-22% of his routes, and when healthy runs 28-29 routes per game. Virtually no top ten TE runs less than 23 /g.

Seems a little thin to jump 7 spots. He’s inured the same PCL 3 times now. Probably gonna be managing it all year if he doesn’t get shut down.
 

houston

Footballguy
Seeing you rank Geno, Fields, and Dak at 9, 11, and 13 falls right in line with my thinking that they're all pretty similar. Have Smith and Fields now. Was considering trading some of my RB depth to get Dak, but I'm now wondering if I'm just as good with Smith and Fields.
As a general rule I'd never sacrifice RB depth for a QB that in a best-case scenario could be a small upgrade.

As an aside, if you'd have told me before the season, that I'd feel great about Geno Smith as a top-10 QB and want nothing to do with Russell Wilson I'd have never believed it.
Ha, very good point on Geno.

I think if I move RB depth for a deal involving Dak, I’ll need to try and get Hunt back as insurance for Chubb.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
6. Dalton Schultz (13), Dak just loves the guy. He's the clear #2 passing option after Lamb and honestly maybe more of a 1B.

Last two weeks he’s had 16 and 14 routes run & was limited all week in practices. Snap counts were 65% and 71%, route participation was 57% and 42%. It’s encouraging he’s been targeted on 35.7% and 42.8% of his routes but I question if that’s sustainable. He’s historically been targeted around 21-22% of his routes, and when healthy runs 28-29 routes per game. Virtually no top ten TE runs less than 23 /g.

Seems a little thin to jump 7 spots. He’s inured the same PCL 3 times now. Probably gonna be managing it all year if he doesn’t get shut down.
I'm expecting his snaps to greatly increase coming out of the bye week. I think he's Dak's favorite guy to throw to. He's not as dynamic as Lamb, obviously, but I think they could be pretty close in target share.

Its possible I'm underrating his health issues, but we saw last season how good he can be, and TE is pretty fluid after the top-2, that I'm willing to take a bit of a risk ranking Schultz so high.
 

RealReactions

Footballguy
Kelce goes on bye while Mandrews puts up nothing special (3-33 on 5 targets) and somehow drops? Kelce is a tier above everyone else and it isn't even close. Kelce has 1 less game played and is still 20 points above him in standard/ 25points in full ppr. This also is not even counting that Mandrews is dealing with multiple injuries and has a more increased chance to miss future games. Just crazy trying to convince anyone that Mandrews has better future value over Kelce.
I'm pretty 50-50 on them. In Andrews case, he's all they have. I'm taking Harbaugh at his word that Andrews is fine. But with Bateman re-injuring his foot, and nobody really stepping up, I don't think we've seen Andrews best yet, and while he's probably not a buy-low as nobody is likely selling low, he's a guy I'd be trying my damndest to acquire right now. As for that 3-33 on 5 target game, that was gonna be a monster game for Andrews, he did all that on basically 1 series. That was gonna be a 10-110-1 game for sure.

In Kelce's case, I think his point advantage is inflated a bit based off that silly 4-TD game, where the Raiders just decided not to cover him in the redzone, which combined with Kamara last week, is making me think the Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL at making any defensive adjustments. There are more mouths to feed in KC, and while I love Kelce's consistency. I think Andrews has a higher ceiling.
We'll see as he didn't practice yesterday. Wednesday is usual vet rest day not Thursday. Today will be big if he doesn't practice again. And you are now "blaming" Kelce points advantage to his 1 game of 4 tds. Lets say he just got 1 td that game. That would still put him with more points than Mandrews on 1 less game....

Everyone has their opinion but nothing Ive seen this year should show Mandrews of Kelce in anyway. GL rest of your year
 

RealReactions

Footballguy
@travdogg
Is a lot of your methodology in ROS rankings based on injured or underperforming guys returning to established production norms and guys that might be on heaters reverting back to baseline production? Do guys that have more games left to play (already had their byes) get higher slots (as they will have more games to play in if healthy)?
I tend to try and not get swayed by a great game or a bad game here or there. That is often why guys coming off great games sometimes move down, or guys coming off down weeks move up, because as I see it, I don't get points for games they already played. I tend to give a lot of weight to usage and overall team outlook as much as I do actual production.
The bolded and underlined even contradict of what you replied to me as you are basing a lot on Kelce's 4TD game...
 

Gally

Footballguy
The bolded and underlined even contradict of what you replied to me as you are basing a lot on Kelce's 4TD game...
I don't think that was a contradiction when you read all of what he wrote. This was a direct response to your comment about Kelce being so far ahead in points. travdogg isn't basing his ranking based on those point totals or that one big game. His basis is on Mandrews being the only guy left standing and Kelce having to compete for targets with more mouths to feed.
 

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