Travdogg's positional rankings going into week 1 (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

Its been over 2 months (6-13 to be exact) since the last rankings, here's how things have changed for me. Previous rank in parenthesis.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (1), the QB1 every season since 2020. Averaged more points after OC change despite less pass heavy offense, because he's part of the run game. Diggs loss could be addition by subtraction.

2. Jalen Hurts (2), OC upgrade, and RB upgrade. Not sure Dotson moves the needle much but can't hurt. Not expecting the tush push to go away just because Kelce did, Hurts is a better short yardage runner than Barkley.

Tier 2:
3. Lamar Jackson (3), rush numbers have given way to pass numbers which is great for the Ravens, but not as much for us. Still a top guy, but 2019 is never coming back.

4. Patrick Mahomes (4), massive weapons upgrade (and JuJu) can't imagine KC has so many drives end in FGs this year.

Tier 3:
5. CJ Stroud (6), Diggs addition likely points to more pass attempts. Lack of rushing upside only thing keeping him from next tier.

6. Joe Burrow (8), Like Stroud, lack of rushing upside is only thing keeping him from being top-3. Could absolutely lead the league in passing yards and TDs. Probably the best QB value in drafts right now.

Tier 4:
7. Dak Prescott (5), is pretty much the same as Stroud and Burrow, but has fewer weapons, is more dependent on 1 guy than they are.

8. Anthony Richardson (7), I can see the argument for him higher, as he has a Jalen Hurts ceiling if he takes a step or three forward as a passer. However, I have no confidence that happens, so to me, this is Justin Fields all over again, only arguably with less upside as I doubt Indy is gonna be calling 15+ runs for Richardson often. Easy pass for me.

Tier 5:
9. Jordan Love (11), if the Nov/Dec version of him is the true version, he's right there with Burrow, but I can't forget some of the awful plays he made last year too. I'm probably being pessimistic, but he's not a priority to me.

10. Kyler Murray (12), I think he'll keep Harrison and McBride going, but I think his own upside is overstated. This is a more run heavy offense now, and Murray isn't as big a part of it in my opinion. He's not on my radar at all at his current ADP, which is ahead of Stroud/Burrow.

11. Jayden Daniels (9), Lack of weapons is his biggest issue. Could see an RG3-like rookie season, and Kingsbury offenses were always among leaders in snaps.

Tier 6:
12. Brock Purdy (10), if he gets another jump in attempts like he did a year ago, he could easily be a Dak-level guy. But other than that 1 Matt Ryan MVP season, that hasn't been Shanahan's style.

Tier 7:
13. Caleb Williams (13), has looked very good this preseason, and has quality weapons, but unless his rush TDs stay around his USC level, his upside could be limited at least this season.

Tier 8:
14. Trevor Lawrence (15), never been impressed by him, but his weapons are deeper than ever, and he runs a little bit (other than when he's playing through a high ankle sprain) could exceed this ranking if Thomas hits the ground running.

15. Tua Tagovailoa (14), there's guys who aren't runners, and then there's guys like Tua who offer nothing at all. Even if he leads the NFL in passing yards again, top-10 upside is gonna be tough without a big TD spike.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1), arguably a tier of his own, but the calf injury brings him down slightly. Still my 1.1 overall pick, as he's been for better or worse each of the last 5 years now.

2. Jonathan Taylor (4), he was a lot better than people remember last season, he was a top-5 RB on a PPG basis once he got back to starting. Its possible Richardson takes some GL work, but Taylor could lead the NFL in carries to offset that.

3. Derrick Henry (5), I think its a dead heat between him and CMC for TD leader this season. Henry hasn't lost a step at all in my opinion, he just lost supporting help. He has that in abundance in Baltimore.

4. Breece Hall (2), I think his receptions were extremely fluky. I could see them being cut in half. Rodgers is not the skittish checkdown machine Wilson was. Hall could see an increase in TDs, but Rodgers has also long been a QB who excels in the redzone, and the Jets may not be as likely to take the ball out of his hands.

5. Bijan Robinson (3), likely sees the least amount of work of anyone else in this tier, but Falcons have a "stars are aligning" vibe to me. He also offers more receiving upside than anyone other than CMC in this tier.

Tier 2:
6. Kyren Williams (6), I see Corum as more handcuff than threat, not all that different than Atlanta. Williams was excellent last season and has earned a long leash. I think he's being slightly underrated.

7. De'Von Achane (14), very similar to Gibbs (arguably better) and I think Monty is a bigger threat than Mostert is. I'm also of the belief Jaylen Wright is nothing more than a contingency handcuff. I doubt he's involved without injury to others. Achane could very much be a 200 carry 50 catch guy if things break right. His floor is closer to what we saw down the stretch last year (which was still RB14) OL and fluky-ish run/pass TD numbers for Miami are main issues to me.

8. Saquon Barkley (7), long rant incoming. Barkley is a very overrated player in my eyes. He's not an elite RB talent. He was before his knee, but he's never been the same since. The idea that it was the Giants offense that was all that was limiting him is flawed to me. Truly elite guys have overcome as much. CMC was lights out in Carolina for example. Barkley is a good RB, but he's also frustrating to watch. He's 230 pounds and acts like he's Barry Sanders, which nobody is. Far too often he's trying to make guys miss instead of just running through them, and for that reason I'd be shocked if he got GL work over Hurts, Hurts is simply a more powerful runner and has the benefit of having Barkley (or whoever) push him. Barkley has a solid floor in Philly, but don't be shocked if 2022 Miles Sanders (plus some catches) is a lot closer to what he ends up with than something elite.

9. Jahmyr Gibbs (9), there is a world where year 2 Gibbs just leaves Monty in the dust ala CJ2K/LenDale back in the day. However, that's not entirely likely. Gibbs could get a bump up to 55% of the work though, and that would increase consistency. This is probably closer to his floor than upside.

10. Isiah Pacheco (12), this is another "stars aligning" kind of guy. Was RB3 in PPG down the stretch, and that's in his range of outcomes. TDs could spike, no more McKinnon, offense just plays better overall. He's a target for me.


Tier 3:
11. Travis Etienne (10), secure workload, and solid talent, but he's a guy I just don't really want. Maybe I'm just low on the Jags offense (I'm below ADP on everyone but Lawrence I think) and I'm a bit worried that he's worn down 2 years in a row.

12. Joe Mixon (8), should be a better fit in Houston's under center offense than the Bengals shotgun heavy scheme. Very little competition for work and should punch in a lot of TDs. Ideal RB2 target.

13. James Cook (15), lack of rush TDs limits upside, but its possible no WR truly steps up, and Cook becomes a 65+ catch guy.

Tier 4:
14. Josh Jacobs (11), these tier of their own guys for me, are very much an admission of me saying I don't really have a strong feeling on a guy. Jacobs is unlikely to see the workload he saw in 2022 ever again, but he could see more than Aaron Jones did. Jones was a lot more efficient than Jacobs has been in his career though.

Tier 5:
15. Kenneth Walker (21), seems to be leaving Charbonnet in the dust a bit. He's clearly a better runner, and neither are anything special as pass catchers. Walker is a very talented player, but Seattle is also going to be more pass heavy under Grubb, so I wouldn't get too carried away.

16. Aaron Jones (16), looked as good as anyone short of CMC down the stretch once he was finally healthy. I think he's a solid RB2 target, in a Vikings offense that likely runs a little more than usual with Darnold at QB.

Tier 6:
17. David Montgomery (23), I think its possible Gibbs could distance himself a bit, and this could end up being more of a contingency ranking. Monty is obviously a top-10 guy if anything happens to Gibbs, like say a hamstring injury.

18. James Conner (19), I said it at the time, and its been true in Arizona, but the Steelers letting him walk and spending a 1st for an inferior player in Najee hasn't helped them at all. Conner arguably played the best football of his career last season, and probably should rank higher, but he's always a little (or a lot) banged up, and he's 29 now.

19. Rachaad White (13), workload was excellent last year, but no impressed with him at all as a runner. Could absolutely see Irving taking a lot more work than anyone took a year ago. Ideally, I think White is a 3rd down RB.

20. Alvin Kamara (20), speaking of ideally 3rd down RBs, Kamara has become one of the least efficient runners in the NFL over the last few years. I think the Saints would like someone (anyone) to step up and take work, but nobody has done so yet. Saints might have worst OL in the NFL.



Tier 7:
21. D'Andre Swift (25), as much as I went in on Barkley, Swift is my pick for most overrated NFL RB. I think he's a COP/3rd down guy, who keeps failing upward. I'm curious what he'll look like without an elite OL, nonetheless, his contract makes it likely he'll have another large role. Bears offense is on the way up.

22. Tony Pollard (27), wasn't near as bad as people think he was last season. Spears is obviously a threat, but I think Pollard is the guy to own here. Quietly was his normal self in advanced stats down the stretch, which coincided with Pollard's own admission of not feeling right until after the bye. Could do worse as an RB3.

23. Rhamondre Stevenson (18), extension was nice to see from a dynasty perspective, but I don't think it changes anything this year. I think Gibson probably is more involved than people think he'll be. I could see a 60-40 split.

Tier 8:
24. Najee Harris (NR), Warren's injury, and more importantly the Steelers lack of passing game boost Najee up a bit. Never been all that impressed by him, but should have GL role, and the running game in general should see a boost if Fields starts at QB, which is likely to happen eventually even if its not week 1.

25. Devin Singletary (24), only so low I can rank a guy likely to see at least 65% of the RB work. He's boring, but coaches love him.

26. Jaylen Warren (30), has clearly outplayed Najee, in an Ekeler/Gordon kind of way. That said, hamstring injury is disconcerting.

Tier 9:
27. Raheem Mostert (23), 32 years old, facing touch and likely major TD regression. I still think its a 2-man backfield until proven otherwise, but if Mostert plays to his age, that door could open a bit.

28. Brian Robinson (NR), seems to have created some separation from Ekeler. Some concern Daniels takes some GL TDs, but he's a solid player. Don't see the pass game work carrying over with Ekeler there, but Washington won't be anywhere near as oddly pass heavy with Bienemy gone.

29. Zack Moss (NR), expecting close to a 50-50 split, but Moss is more proven, and specifically excelled running out of the shotgun, which few teams do as much as the Bengals. Better bet for TDs too in my opinion.

30. Javonte Williams (26), on the one hand, he's clearly proven he's the starter (for now) and Nix winning the job is probably best for everyone. That said, Payton has always liked RBBCs, and McLaughlin is a candidate for more work.

Dropped off: Zamir White (17), very nervous about his preseason usage. Also feels like the Raiders are gonna be more pass heavy than initially expected, which makes sense as Getsy is from the McVay tree, he just had Fields as his QB for a couple years. Jerome Ford (28), should be the guy the first month of the season, but Chubb sounds like he'll be ready to go in at least a 50-50 split after that. Ezekiel Elliott (29), might fall into 10 TDs, in a similar role to 2022, but that's his ceiling. His floor is he's washed and is in a RBBC that could be more than just 2 guys.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (2), hand injury isn't ideal, but not worried yet. Should experience positive TD regression as Dolphins run/pass TD was wild last year.

2. CeeDee Lamb (1), not too worried about the holdout. He's gonna lead the NFL in targets and was a tier of his own after week 5 last year. Do like the Dolphins offense just a bit better though.

3. Justin Jefferson (4), hot take alert. Through 4 years I'd very much argue JJ>Randy Moss. I don't think its crazy to think that may just be JJ>Moss in general soon enough. There is nothing about the position Jefferson doesn't do at an elite level. You'd like to see more TDs (he might be a Julio type for fantasy) and Darnold isn't what you'd like to see at QB, but he produced with Mullens just fine.

4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (5), the fantasy community has finally caught on to him, after 2 years where he was vastly underrated. Has a lower ceiling than the rest of tier 1, but also has zero question marks. Something to be said for that. I called him the new Hines Ward early in 2022, turns out I was underrating him.

5. Ja'Marr Chase (3), hasn't really developed since his standout rookie season, and is probably slightly overrated as an NFL WR, fantasy wise however, he's tied to an elite QB (and is no real threat to sit) and may not have peaked yet.

Tier 2:
6. Puka Nacua (6), somehow, I think he's become a little underrated. I think he's an ideal 2nd rounder, who has usurped Kupp as the #1. What he did last season was incredible, and I'm not that worried about his knee, he's had time to recover. Big fan.

7. AJ Brown (7), Eagles should pass more (and more effectively) under Moore, and Brown should see more plays designed for him than he did a year ago.

8. Davante Adams (12), a bit underrated to me. He still looks like a top WR to me, and should have a resurgence with Minshew at QB, and Getsy at OC. Both guys tend to favor heavily featuring 1 guy.

9. Garrett Wilson (8), should be much improved with Rodgers (or even Taylor) at QB instead of Wilson, but I think his ceiling is a little overstated. Has more target competition with Williams there, and Jets D likely prevents many shootouts.

10. Marvin Harrison (16), this is probably too high, but I think Harrison is the best WR prospect since Calvin, and maybe even better than he was, at least coming out. Kyler has tended to have a narrow target field and that should be the case with him and McBride seeing over 50% of the targets.

Tier 3:
11. Mike Evans (11), probably won't be as effective as he was last season, but he's also not being drafted like it. Clearly Mayfield's top target, and has incredible year to year consistency 10 seasons 10 1,000 yard years.

12. Nico Collins (29), re-watching Collins there is some Terrell Owens to his game, which is potentially scary for his upside. His RAC is a vastly underrated part of his game. There is a shot that he's highly inconsistent but there is potentially a shot he distances himself from Diggs/Dell, and has an AJ Brown level season. Like him a lot in round 3.

13. Chris Olave (15), Carr was quietly pretty effective down the stretch once he got over his shoulder injury. Olave has little target competition and Kubiak should scheme him open some, which is more than Carmichael ever did. Ideal WR2.

14. Drake London (10), tough to get much higher on a guy who has never been a top-30 guy. Had as bad of QB play as anyone in his career, but I do think the ceiling is high with a narrow target field.

Tier 4:
15. Deebo Samuel (9), probably was a little too high on him before. Maybe my favorite player to watch but is almost a lock to miss some time. 1 of 1 type player though. Would probably be a top-5 NFL RB if that was the position he played. If Aiyuk is surprisingly traded bump him back to tier 2.

16. Brandon Aiyuk (14), assuming he stays in SF. He had a huge year last year, with outstanding rate stats and its no wonder he's trying to cash in off it.

17. DK Metcalf (22), should be a more pass heavy offense under Grubb, though there is some question if we've seen DKs best already. One spot we could see DK gain, is redzone targets, as Seattle has been one of the more run heavy than most in the redzone.

18. DeVonta Smith (25), might benefit from the OC change even more than Brown does. Smith could see more slot work under Moore (not expecting Dotson to be a threat at all) and Smith has said he's been studying Lamb in Moore's offense.

19. Jaylen Waddle (18), one of my favorite players, who just happens to be opposite a HOF talent. Waddle is an excellent WR, who wins on every level. If Hill were to go down, I think Waddle would be a top-5 WR. Still a solid WR2 with Hill. TDs should rebound.

Tier 5:
20. DJ Moore (21), last year feels unattainable with Allen/Odunze on board, even with better QB play.

21. Michael Pittman (28), still think last year is his ceiling, but it doesn't hurt that Downs is already hurt, and Mitchell looks a bit raw.

22. Cooper Kupp (23), I understand why others are higher on him, but its hard to escape the thought that he's breaking down a bit. Could easily exceed this ranking, but a repeat of last season also feels just as likely.

23. Rashee Rice (NR), seems like any suspension is coming in 2025. Rice still has a lot more target competition than last year, but he's been heavily featured in the preseason, albeit with Hollywood out.

24. Malik Nabers (30), a Jaylen Waddle like rookie season with 100 catches, but a lot not going anywhere due to defensive attention feels likely.

 

[travdogg]

Tier 6:
25. Tank Dell (20), might be another D-Jax. Was stride for stride in PPG with Nico, but given Nico's extension and the Diggs trade, it feels like the Texans view Dell as more an ancillary player. I want to be higher on him but can't really justify it.

26. Amari Cooper (27), season totals got goosed a bit by his monster game against Houston late last year, he was a WR3 for most of the year. Did top 90 yards in all but 1 of Watson's starts though. Might be the only guy who benefits from Watson.

27. Stefon Diggs (17), likely moving to the slot ala several other 30+ WRs, that could give new life to his career. Another guy who could easily exceed this rank, but I prefer to bet elsewhere.

Tier 7:
28. George Pickens (13), Steelers QB situation might actually not be better than it was last year. Pickens has sky high upside, but this could be as run heavy a team as there is in the NFL.

29. Zay Flowers (26), started to really cook down the stretch, of course that also doubled as when Andrews was injured. I think Andrews is still the #1 there, so Flowers is likely going to have to make do on some lower target weeks. Could see more deep balls off PA with Henry scaring teams with the run a bit more.

30. Tee Higgins (19), I think we've seen enough to declare Higgins is in the exact role he should be, which is #2 WR. He's simply not a #1 talent. He's in a great situation though. I do worry that he's a guy who is seemingly always hurt in some way, and that has pushed him down a bit for me. If he stays healthy all year, this will be too low.

31. Terry McLaurin (34), clear cut #1 WR, but offense will be much less pass heavy than last season, and I'm not sure if Scary Terry isn't a #2 masquerading as a #1. Safe WR3, but not much upside.

32. Chris Godwin (NR), I'm going against what my eyes told me last year, as Godwin has been the talk of Bucs training camp, and moving back to the slot seems to have rejuvenated him. The targets are certainly there behind Evans, and Godwin is still only 28. He's gettable as a WR4 with upside.

Tier 8:
33. Keenan Allen (39), on the bright side, Williams looks like he may hit the ground running. On the negative Allen put on some major weight (almost looks like a smaller TE) and its possible Odunze makes him less of a fulltime WR than we are accustomed to. Long a favorite of mine, but another guy I'd prefer someone else draft.

34. Calvin Ridley (36), Hopkins injury opened the door for Ridley to make a run at the #1 job. Levis likes to throw downfield (highest aDOT of any QB in 2023) and that's been where Ridley tends to make his hay. Still, he's probably someone I'd prefer someone else draft.

35. Diontae Johnson (35), could very well see a Thielen level share from a year ago, though that may be tougher with Thielen still around. Seemed to have a nice rapport with Young in their limited preseason action.

36. Rome Odunze (NR), has been getting open with ease this preseason, and that's not an anomaly if Hard Knocks is to be believed. Despite Waldron's 2-TE approach, he might force his hand to be a 3-WR team a lot more than JSN did a year ago.

37. Xavier Worthy (40), has looked very good in preseason, and predictably Reid has schemed him to avoid press coverage, something that should continue. Could have a big impact if Mahomes goes back to being a 5000 yard guy.

Tier 9:
38. Hollywood Brown (33), injury knocks him down a but, as does Rice's non-suspension, but there's still a shot Brown has a big role once healthy, and having a piece of a 5000-yard passing game is desirable.

Tier 10:
39. Courtland Sutton (NR), about as low as I can have a clear #1 WR. Nix winning the job early is probably a positive. Sutton's TDs are probably going to come down, but its possible his overall receptions go up.

40. Christian Watson (NR), Packers WRs are a crapshoot. Watson has more TDs from the 2022 class than Wilson, Olave, or Pickens.

Dropped off: Christian Kirk (24), I've never been a Kirk fan, and I think the offense wants to be more downfield as evidenced by Davis signing and Thomas pick. Some overlap with Kirk/Engram. DeAndre Hopkins (31), knee injury, age, Ridley addition, potentially bad offense are all reasons to be low on Hopkins. Jayden Reed (32), only playing 3-wide at the moment, I think that hurts his consistency. Tyler Lockett (37), seems to be in a fight for the #2 job with JSN. Ladd McConkey (38) love the player, but seems to also be a mostly slot-only type so far, and Chargers want to be run heavy. Was last omission.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Sam LaPorta (3), starting to really come around to the idea that he takes another step forward in year 2. The list of guys in their 1st 2 years who had seasons on the level of LaPorta is a who's who of TE studs (Gronk, Graham, Kittle, Andrews...and Hernandez) barring LaPorta suddenly becoming a murderer, I'm confident he's here to stay.

Tier 2:
2. Travis Kelce (1), Rice's presence is enough to knock Kelce down a bit for me, as they work similar areas.

3. Trey McBride (5), getting a bit higher on McBride as it looks like a true 2-man passing game in Arizona.

Tier 3:
4. Mark Andrews (2), this could end up being too low, as Andrews hasn't looked any different as a player, he's just been injured. Its possible Flowers cuts in more in year 2, but that's also a could happen rather than a will happen.

5. Kyle Pitts (4), still only 23, and had that 1000-yard season last time he had a good QB. I'm still a believer.

6. Dalton Kincaid (6), Knox is annoyingly not going away, and that is the most limiting thing for me. Kincaid has a chance to outperform this, but he's riksier than the guys above him in my opinion, yes even Pitts.

Tier 4:
7. George Kittle (7), otherworldly efficiency on just 90 targets, but so hard to count on week to week. Its a shame, as he's arguably every bit the player Kelce has been, he just doesn't have the numbers he does. If Aiyuk is surprisingly traded, he's in tier 2.

Tier 5:
8. Evan Engram (8), such stark splits with/without Kirk. Basically just added Kirk's role to his own. With Kirk around, he's a TE2. Without, he's right there with Andrews.

9. Jake Ferguson (9), pass heavy offense with a vacancy for a #2 pass catcher. Ferguson had some awful TD luck last season (then had 3 TDs in the playoff game, because that's how regression works) that should correct itself.

Tier 6:
10. Brock Bowers (14), I'm allowing myself to get talked into the potential upside, and it helps that Minshew won the job as he has a history of feeding his top guys. I will say Ideally he's a TE2, but I'm a guy who puts a priority on TE.

Tier 7:
11. David Njoku (11), splits with/without Watson are drastic. 6.3 PPG higher without Watson and some of those games were with non-NFL talent at QB.

Tier 8:
12. Dallas Goedert (10), underused and underrated TE. I think he's clearly ahead of Dotson or Barkley in the pass game pecking order, even if its become clear he'll never be what Ertz was. Still an injury away from being on par with the tier 3 guys in my opinion.

Tier 9:
13. TJ Hockenson (NR), could be back a little sooner than expected, and frankly I've just lost some confidence in some other TEs, so welcome to the list TJ. Splits were pretty big with/without Jefferson, so his 2023 season is likely a career year.

Tier 10:
14. Taysom Hill (NR), sees GL runs (is arguably their best runner) and played 14 of 22 snaps with the starters in the preseason, including some at RB. Sure Kamara was out, but that's still promising usage.

15. Dalton Schultz (12), has a decent TD floor, and if any of the WRs go down, has some top-10 upside in a very good passing game.

Dropped off: Pat Freiermuth (13), Arthur Smith, you are a confusing man. Freiermuth has been splitting snaps with Darnell Washington and Conner Heyward, despite seemingly being the 2nd best pass catcher on the team. Should have traded him to SF, if that was even a hold up. Hunter Henry (15), Pats young WRs (Douglas, Polk, and I refuse to believe Thornton) are stepping up a bit, so Henry may not be the potential top pass catcher I thought 2 months ago.

 

[TheWinz]

Love, love, love

 

[gbill2004]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Sam LaPorta (3), starting to really come around to the idea that he takes another step forward in year 2. The list of guys in their 1st 2 years who had seasons on the level of LaPorta is a who's who of TE studs (Gronk, Graham, Kittle, Andrews...and Hernandez) barring LaPorta suddenly becoming a murderer, I'm confident he's here to stay.

Tier 2:
2. Travis Kelce (1), Rice's presence is enough to knock Kelce down a bit for me, as they work similar areas.

3. Trey McBride (5), getting a bit higher on McBride as it looks like a true 2-man passing game in Arizona.

Tier 3:
4. Mark Andrews (2), this could end up being too low, as Andrews hasn't looked any different as a player, he's just been injured. Its possible Flowers cuts in more in year 2, but that's also a could happen rather than a will happen.

5. Kyle Pitts (4), still only 23, and had that 1000-yard season last time he had a good QB. I'm still a believer.

6. Dalton Kincaid (6), Knox is annoyingly not going away, and that is the most limiting thing for me. Kincaid has a chance to outperform this, but he's riksier than the guys above him in my opinion, yes even Pitts.

Tier 4:
7. George Kittle (7), otherworldly efficiency on just 90 targets, but so hard to count on week to week. Its a shame, as he's arguably every bit the player Kelce has been, he just doesn't have the numbers he does. If Aiyuk is surprisingly traded, he's in tier 2.

Tier 5:
8. Jake Ferguson (9), pass heavy offense with a vacancy for a #2 pass catcher. Ferguson had some awful TD luck last season (then had 3 TDs in the playoff game, because that's how regression works) that should correct itself.

9. Evan Engram (8), such stark splits with/without Kirk. Basically just added Kirk's role to his own. With Kirk around, he's a TE2. Without, he's right there with Andrews.

Tier 6:
10. Brock Bowers (14), I'm allowing myself to get talked into the potential upside, and it helps that Minshew won the job as he has a history of feeding his top guys. I will say Ideally he's a TE2, but I'm a guy who puts a priority on TE.

Tier 7:
11. David Njoku (11), splits with/without Watson are drastic. 6.3 PPG higher without Watson and some of those games were with non-NFL talent at QB.

Tier 8:
12. Dallas Goedert (10), underused and underrated TE. I think he's clearly ahead of Dotson or Barkley in the pass game pecking order, even if its become clear he'll never be what Ertz was. Still an injury away from being on par with the tier 3 guys in my opinion.

Tier 9:
13. TJ Hockenson (NR), could be back a little sooner than expected, and frankly I've just lost some confidence in some other TEs, so welcome to the list TJ. Splits were pretty big with/without Jefferson, so his 2023 season is likely a career year.

Tier 10:
14. Taysom Hill (NR), sees GL runs (is arguably their best runner) and played 14 of 22 snaps with the starters in the preseason, including some at RB. Sure Kamara was out, but that's still promising usage.

15. Dalton Schultz (12), has a decent TD floor, and if any of the WRs go down, has some top-10 upside in a very good passing game.

Dropped off: Pat Freiermuth (13), Arthur Smith, you are a confusing man. Freiermuth has been splitting snaps with Darnell Washington and Conner Heyward, despite seemingly being the 2nd best pass catcher on the team. Should have traded him to SF, if that was even a hold up. Hunter Henry (15), Pats young WRs (Douglas, Polk, and I refuse to believe Thornton) are stepping up a bit, so Henry may not be the potential top pass catcher I thought 2 months ago.

No love for Ty Conklin?

 

[zoonation]

Fantastic write up.

One note: I love Ridley at ADP and would bet a lot of money that he significantly outproduces it. Ridley was something like WR17 last year with terrible usage in the Jags offense.

Levis is going to chuck it and actually use him properly IMO. Floor is mid-low end WR2 IMO for a guy being drafted as low end WR3

 

[Deamon]

Have been waiting for this!!!!

What is your reasoning for dropping Goff from top 7 QB last year to out of the top 15?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Things just got real around here

 

[the spanker]

Wait, just checked out your rankings here first time. Are these 1/2 ppr or full ppr?

 

[travdogg]

Wait, just checked out your rankings here first time. Are these 1/2 ppr or full ppr?

Half PPR.

TE
Tier 1:
1. Sam LaPorta (3), starting to really come around to the idea that he takes another step forward in year 2. The list of guys in their 1st 2 years who had seasons on the level of LaPorta is a who's who of TE studs (Gronk, Graham, Kittle, Andrews...and Hernandez) barring LaPorta suddenly becoming a murderer, I'm confident he's here to stay.

Tier 2:
2. Travis Kelce (1), Rice's presence is enough to knock Kelce down a bit for me, as they work similar areas.

3. Trey McBride (5), getting a bit higher on McBride as it looks like a true 2-man passing game in Arizona.

Tier 3:
4. Mark Andrews (2), this could end up being too low, as Andrews hasn't looked any different as a player, he's just been injured. Its possible Flowers cuts in more in year 2, but that's also a could happen rather than a will happen.

5. Kyle Pitts (4), still only 23, and had that 1000-yard season last time he had a good QB. I'm still a believer.

6. Dalton Kincaid (6), Knox is annoyingly not going away, and that is the most limiting thing for me. Kincaid has a chance to outperform this, but he's riksier than the guys above him in my opinion, yes even Pitts.

Tier 4:
7. George Kittle (7), otherworldly efficiency on just 90 targets, but so hard to count on week to week. Its a shame, as he's arguably every bit the player Kelce has been, he just doesn't have the numbers he does. If Aiyuk is surprisingly traded, he's in tier 2.

Tier 5:
8. Jake Ferguson (9), pass heavy offense with a vacancy for a #2 pass catcher. Ferguson had some awful TD luck last season (then had 3 TDs in the playoff game, because that's how regression works) that should correct itself.

9. Evan Engram (8), such stark splits with/without Kirk. Basically just added Kirk's role to his own. With Kirk around, he's a TE2. Without, he's right there with Andrews.

Tier 6:
10. Brock Bowers (14), I'm allowing myself to get talked into the potential upside, and it helps that Minshew won the job as he has a history of feeding his top guys. I will say Ideally he's a TE2, but I'm a guy who puts a priority on TE.

Tier 7:
11. David Njoku (11), splits with/without Watson are drastic. 6.3 PPG higher without Watson and some of those games were with non-NFL talent at QB.

Tier 8:
12. Dallas Goedert (10), underused and underrated TE. I think he's clearly ahead of Dotson or Barkley in the pass game pecking order, even if its become clear he'll never be what Ertz was. Still an injury away from being on par with the tier 3 guys in my opinion.

Tier 9:
13. TJ Hockenson (NR), could be back a little sooner than expected, and frankly I've just lost some confidence in some other TEs, so welcome to the list TJ. Splits were pretty big with/without Jefferson, so his 2023 season is likely a career year.

Tier 10:
14. Taysom Hill (NR), sees GL runs (is arguably their best runner) and played 14 of 22 snaps with the starters in the preseason, including some at RB. Sure Kamara was out, but that's still promising usage.

15. Dalton Schultz (12), has a decent TD floor, and if any of the WRs go down, has some top-10 upside in a very good passing game.

Dropped off: Pat Freiermuth (13), Arthur Smith, you are a confusing man. Freiermuth has been splitting snaps with Darnell Washington and Conner Heyward, despite seemingly being the 2nd best pass catcher on the team. Should have traded him to SF, if that was even a hold up. Hunter Henry (15), Pats young WRs (Douglas, Polk, and I refuse to believe Thornton) are stepping up a bit, so Henry may not be the potential top pass catcher I thought 2 months ago.

No love for Ty Conklin?

Conklin wouldn't have been in my top-20. I think he benefitted a lot from Z. Wilson being a checkdown machine, and no #2 WR. Now they have a QB who will throw downfield, and Mike Williams.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Wait, just checked out your rankings here first time. Are these 1/2 ppr or full ppr?

IIRC they also assume 4-point passing TDs. Those of us who play in 6-point pass TD leagues kept telling him he was underrating Cousins before the Achilles injury.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

These threads are basically why I joined this forum.

 

[travdogg]

Fantastic write up.

One note: I love Ridley at ADP and would bet a lot of money that he significantly outproduces it. Ridley was something like WR17 last year with terrible usage in the Jags offense.

Levis is going to chuck it and actually use him properly IMO. Floor is mid-low end WR2 IMO for a guy being drafted as low end WR3

I'll admit that's possible, I just don't like Ridley. I think he's a limited WR, who doesn't do much RAC, or win contested balls, so he requires top notch accuracy. Matt Ryan had that, Trevor Lawrence sometimes has it, Will Levis is a lot more of a projection. I think even if he hits low-end WR2 range, he's tough to trust. How many of his big weeks last year was he on people's benches? I'd bet at least half.

Truthfully, I think Hopkins is still a better WR than Ridley, I just don't like that he already hurt his knee.

Have been waiting for this!!!!

What is your reasoning for dropping Goff from top 7 QB last year to out of the top 15?

I think that was somewhat of a hollow 7. He was 16th in PPG, he just stayed healthy.

The only guys I ranked above him that had fewer PPG last year, are Burrow (obvious outlier season) Lawrence (.6 fewer PPG and he played hurt) and Tua (fluky low TD rate)

 

[ZADO]

BRAVO !!!!

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Thanks @travdogg

Fun read

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Thanks TD!

 

[need2know]

Goff should be in the top 15
Easily.
You have guys who havent even played a game or just a handful of games over him. Lions have a top offense and will play a ton of dome games. Hes going to be 5-10

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Beautiful write up. I don’t agree with some of your rankings, but I absolutely respect you, the rankings and the work that you put into them. I just personaly see two glaring issues with your qb rankings. How do you have both Goff and Stafford out of your top 15—at the same time—you have them both throwing to very top ranked targets? You have Amon Ra ranked really high, you are really high on Laporta—-but somehow you think those guys will do very well—but that won’t be good enough to make Goff top 15? You also have Puka and Cupp ranked high—but Stafford is not in the top 15?

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Don't always agree with it all, but always love to see it. Thank again, @travdogg!

 

[FarFromHome]

Love it when folks put it out like this. Appreciate the time and effort Sir.

My quick glance commentary:

QBS. Have no problem with Allen being #1, but if he is #1 then Mahomes has to be #2. Has to be. Respect that your not buying to hard on the Richardson hype train. I like his ranking there. My gut says Lawrence is top 10 this year.

RBS. I would not be surprised in the least if at the end of the year the top 3 RBS are McCaffrey, Taylor and Henry. For one year I see 4.rbs above Jacobs that id definitely have below.

WRS. I like nearly all your wr rankings. Except. Puka love is strong everywhere except in my mind. 6? Pass . Prolly higher then anyone on earth, but I have Metcalf as my 11th ranked wr.

Good work man!!!

 

[BlackCrowes]

Beautiful write up. I don’t agree with some of your rankings, but I absolutely respect you, the rankings and the work that you put into them. I just personaly see two glaring issues with your qb rankings. How do you have both Goff and Stafford out of your top 15—at the same time—you have them both throwing to very top ranked targets? You have Amon Ra ranked really high, you are really high on Laporta—-but somehow you think those guys will do very well—but that won’t be good enough to make Goff top 15? You also have Puka and Cupp ranked high—but Stafford is not in the top 15?

Seems like a common theme I’ve seen in a lot of rankings. Sites have Hill and Waddle in the top 15, but Tua down as a mid-QB2. Lions and Rams too. It’s the lack of rushing threat from those QBs. I’m not sure I agree with it, but rushing QBs are definitely hot right now. For good reason.

Reminds me of the days that Plaxico and Hines Ward were both top 6, but Maddox was nowhere to be found.

 

[BlackCrowes]

nice writeup btw, trav. my biggest disagreement is Saquon. You’re ranking his floor, which is odd in that offense.

 

[travdogg]

Goff should be in the top 15
Easily.
You have guys who havent even played a game or just a handful of games over him. Lions have a top offense and will play a ton of dome games. Hes going to be 5-10

Beautiful write up. I don’t agree with some of your rankings, but I absolutely respect you, the rankings and the work that you put into them. I just personaly see two glaring issues with your qb rankings. How do you have both Goff and Stafford out of your top 15—at the same time—you have them both throwing to very top ranked targets? You have Amon Ra ranked really high, you are really high on Laporta—-but somehow you think those guys will do very well—but that won’t be good enough to make Goff top 15? You also have Puka and Cupp ranked high—but Stafford is not in the top 15?

I'll lump these together because I think my reasoning applies to both. On pure passing stats, I think Goff and Stafford can both absolutely be top-10 passers. But they contribute ZERO as runners, Like Tua but slightly lower, because Tyreek>their guys.

Running, even just a mediocre amount makes such a huge difference, for example, Russell Wilson (before he was benched) was better than Goff, or Stafford, or Tua, because he added with his legs. They all averaged 60 or more passing yards per game than Wilson, did, and yet Wilson outscored them all.

To the other part, about the WR/TE ranks tying into QB ranks. I see Miami (I'm lumping Tua in here) LA, and Detroit as being very condensed between 2 pass catchers. I expect around 50% of the passing production (probably even more in Miami) to go through 2 guys (sorry Jameson Williams truthers, I'm not buying, at least not with any consistency) so there is absolutely room for a QB to have 2 top options, while still being mediocre in fantasy himself. If I'd have gone past 15, I have Goff 17 and Stafford 19, mixed in with similar non runners Cousins, Rodgers, and decent runner Herbert.

 

[travdogg]

nice writeup btw, trav. my biggest disagreement is Saquon. You’re ranking his floor, which is odd in that offense.

I don't think I'm ranking his floor, I think people are thinking there is a ceiling that doesn't exist in 2024 Barkley. 2019 Barkley maybe, but not 2024, he's not that elite talent anymore. He hasn't been since the knee injury. I don't see where the ceiling is gonna come from. He's not gonna score 15 TDs, he's not gonna catch 60 passes. He's not gonna run for 1500 yards.

I think he's getting too much of a pass for being on a bad offense. Most of his advanced stats are average or below. He doesn't break tackles well, he's not a difference maker as a receiver, he does still break some long runs, and that will likely be what carries him behind this OL, but he'll never come close to what he once was, he's just not that elusive anymore, and he's not gonna see 375 touches like he did in 2022.

Truth be told, I think the Giants were 100% right to let him walk (not that Singletary was the right backup plan) and the Eagles would have been wiser to go after Henry, though its possible his heart was always set on Baltimore as they almost traded for him last year.

 

[Chaka]

7. De'Von Achane (14), very similar to Gibbs (arguably better) and I think Monty is a bigger threat than Mostert is. I'm also of the belief Jaylen Wright is nothing more than a contingency handcuff. I doubt he's involved without injury to others. Achane could very much be a 200 carry 50 catch guy if things break right. His floor is closer to what we saw down the stretch last year (which was still RB14) OL and fluky-ish run/pass TD numbers for Miami are main issues to me.

I love the flag plant but I see no world where this guy sniffs 250 touches in 2024.

5. Ja'Marr Chase (3), hasn't really developed since his standout rookie season, and is probably slightly overrated as an NFL WR, fantasy wise however, he's tied to an elite QB (and is no real threat to sit) and may not have peaked yet.

Chase is looking a little like the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs. Whenever Burrow is starting Chase has consistently averaged a 1,500 yard, 12 TD pace. If they both play 17, obviously that is a question, you can book another 1,500 & 12. And he hasn't even had a "career" season yet.

 

[BobbyLayne]

@travdogg

Great write ups gb, but once again, my biggest complaint with your rankings is my guys should be higher.

 

[travdogg]

7. De'Von Achane (14), very similar to Gibbs (arguably better) and I think Monty is a bigger threat than Mostert is. I'm also of the belief Jaylen Wright is nothing more than a contingency handcuff. I doubt he's involved without injury to others. Achane could very much be a 200 carry 50 catch guy if things break right. His floor is closer to what we saw down the stretch last year (which was still RB14) OL and fluky-ish run/pass TD numbers for Miami are main issues to me.

I love the flag plant but I see no world where this guy sniffs 250 touches in 2024.

5. Ja'Marr Chase (3), hasn't really developed since his standout rookie season, and is probably slightly overrated as an NFL WR, fantasy wise however, he's tied to an elite QB (and is no real threat to sit) and may not have peaked yet.

Chase is looking a little like the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs. Whenever Burrow is starting Chase has consistently averaged a 1,500 yard, 12 TD pace. If they both play 17, obviously that is a question, you can book another 1,500 & 12. And he hasn't even had a "career" season yet.

I can agree a bit on Chase. Tier 1 is pretty tight. It wouldn't blow my mind if Chase finished as WR1 overall. I just trust him the least of those 5.

With Achane, I don't understand why people think his workload won't get bigger. I think the "he's too small, or he's injury prone" arguments are nonsense. Last season (in games he and Mostert both played) he had 40% of the rushing attempts, and 53% of the RB routes. Every reason to think both those numbers go up in year 2, especially since 2 of those active games Achane barely played as he wasn't really part of the offense yet. If he doesn't miss time last year (or if he's involved in those 2 games) he has 181 rushes and 43 catches last season. I'm really only projecting about 2 more touches per game than he was getting last season.

Love it when folks put it out like this. Appreciate the time and effort Sir.

My quick glance commentary:

QBS. Have no problem with Allen being #1, but if he is #1 then Mahomes has to be #2. Has to be. Respect that your not buying to hard on the Richardson hype train. I like his ranking there. My gut says Lawrence is top 10 this year.

RBS. I would not be surprised in the least if at the end of the year the top 3 RBS are McCaffrey, Taylor and Henry. For one year I see 4.rbs above Jacobs that id definitely have below.

WRS. I like nearly all your wr rankings. Except. Puka love is strong everywhere except in my mind. 6? Pass . Prolly higher then anyone on earth, but I have Metcalf as my 11th ranked wr.

Good work man!!!

Out of curiousity, who are the 4 guys you have below Jacobs? I'm gonna guess its Mixon, Cook, Achane and...Pacheco?

 

[FarFromHome]

7. De'Von Achane (14), very similar to Gibbs (arguably better) and I think Monty is a bigger threat than Mostert is. I'm also of the belief Jaylen Wright is nothing more than a contingency handcuff. I doubt he's involved without injury to others. Achane could very much be a 200 carry 50 catch guy if things break right. His floor is closer to what we saw down the stretch last year (which was still RB14) OL and fluky-ish run/pass TD numbers for Miami are main issues to me.

I love the flag plant but I see no world where this guy sniffs 250 touches in 2024.

5. Ja'Marr Chase (3), hasn't really developed since his standout rookie season, and is probably slightly overrated as an NFL WR, fantasy wise however, he's tied to an elite QB (and is no real threat to sit) and may not have peaked yet.

Chase is looking a little like the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs. Whenever Burrow is starting Chase has consistently averaged a 1,500 yard, 12 TD pace. If they both play 17, obviously that is a question, you can book another 1,500 & 12. And he hasn't even had a "career" season yet.

I can agree a bit on Chase. Tier 1 is pretty tight. It wouldn't blow my mind if Chase finished as WR1 overall. I just trust him the least of those 5.

With Achane, I don't understand why people think his workload won't get bigger. I think the "he's too small, or he's injury prone" arguments are nonsense. Last season (in games he and Mostert both played) he had 40% of the rushing attempts, and 53% of the RB routes. Every reason to think both those numbers go up in year 2, especially since 2 of those active games Achane barely played as he wasn't really part of the offense yet. If he doesn't miss time last year (or if he's involved in those 2 games) he has 181 rushes and 43 catches last season. I'm really only projecting about 2 more touches per game than he was getting last season.

Love it when folks put it out like this. Appreciate the time and effort Sir.

My quick glance commentary:

QBS. Have no problem with Allen being #1, but if he is #1 then Mahomes has to be #2. Has to be. Respect that your not buying to hard on the Richardson hype train. I like his ranking there. My gut says Lawrence is top 10 this year.

RBS. I would not be surprised in the least if at the end of the year the top 3 RBS are McCaffrey, Taylor and Henry. For one year I see 4.rbs above Jacobs that id definitely have below.

WRS. I like nearly all your wr rankings. Except. Puka love is strong everywhere except in my mind. 6? Pass . Prolly higher then anyone on earth, but I have Metcalf as my 11th ranked wr.

Good work man!!!

Out of curiousity, who are the 4 guys you have below Jacobs? I'm gonna guess its Mixon, Cook, Achane and...Pacheco?

Bingo.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Beautiful write up. I don’t agree with some of your rankings, but I absolutely respect you, the rankings and the work that you put into them. I just personaly see two glaring issues with your qb rankings. How do you have both Goff and Stafford out of your top 15—at the same time—you have them both throwing to very top ranked targets? You have Amon Ra ranked really high, you are really high on Laporta—-but somehow you think those guys will do very well—but that won’t be good enough to make Goff top 15? You also have Puka and Cupp ranked high—but Stafford is not in the top 15?

Seems like a common theme I’ve seen in a lot of rankings. Sites have Hill and Waddle in the top 15, but Tua down as a mid-QB2. Lions and Rams too. It’s the lack of rushing threat from those QBs. I’m not sure I agree with it, but rushing QBs are definitely hot right now. For good reason.

Reminds me of the days that Plaxico and Hines Ward were both top 6, but Maddox was nowhere to be found.

Fair enough—but running qb’s or not— I absolutely think that if Amon Ra finishes as a top 5 WR, and if Laporta finishes as a top 2-3 TE—-I don’t see Goff finishing outside of the top 15. I also believe that Puka and Cupp will both finish in the top 20 WR (assuming both stay healthy)—and if so—I don’t see how Stafford doesn’t finish in the top 15. In brutal honesty— if Stafford stays healthy this season—I think the fantasy community is absolutely sleeping on him. I think the only qb that I see this season that could possibly have two receivers that are in the top 20-25–but won’t finish in the top 15–would be Leviss. I could see that team throwing for lots of yards but not scoring lots of tds. Regardless—I truly do appreciate your write up and content. It’s fantastic that you take the time to do it and that you share it with the forum.

 

[BlackCrowes]

nice writeup btw, trav. my biggest disagreement is Saquon. You’re ranking his floor, which is odd in that offense.

I don't think I'm ranking his floor, I think people are thinking there is a ceiling that doesn't exist in 2024 Barkley. 2019 Barkley maybe, but not 2024, he's not that elite talent anymore. He hasn't been since the knee injury. I don't see where the ceiling is gonna come from. He's not gonna score 15 TDs, he's not gonna catch 60 passes. He's not gonna run for 1500 yards.

I think he's getting too much of a pass for being on a bad offense. Most of his advanced stats are average or below. He doesn't break tackles well, he's not a difference maker as a receiver, he does still break some long runs, and that will likely be what carries him behind this OL, but he'll never come close to what he once was, he's just not that elusive anymore, and he's not gonna see 375 touches like he did in 2022.

Truth be told, I think the Giants were 100% right to let him walk (not that Singletary was the right backup plan) and the Eagles would have been wiser to go after Henry, though its possible his heart was always set on Baltimore as they almost traded for him last year.

I’m thinking Philly might have looked at some film before signing him. His first year back after the knee, he wasn’t the same. Last year I thought he was almost the same. Dodging guys in the backfield is tough. I think he was RB12 last year? RB8 on this offense seems like a floor to me.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Great work. All I have to say is that I sincerely hope you are absolutely correct on Davante Adams and that you are completely wrong about Cooper Kupp

 

[need2know]

nice writeup btw, trav. my biggest disagreement is Saquon. You’re ranking his floor, which is odd in that offense.

I don't think I'm ranking his floor, I think people are thinking there is a ceiling that doesn't exist in 2024 Barkley. 2019 Barkley maybe, but not 2024, he's not that elite talent anymore. He hasn't been since the knee injury. I don't see where the ceiling is gonna come from. He's not gonna score 15 TDs, he's not gonna catch 60 passes. He's not gonna run for 1500 yards.

I think he's getting too much of a pass for being on a bad offense. Most of his advanced stats are average or below. He doesn't break tackles well, he's not a difference maker as a receiver, he does still break some long runs, and that will likely be what carries him behind this OL, but he'll never come close to what he once was, he's just not that elusive anymore, and he's not gonna see 375 touches like he did in 2022.

Truth be told, I think the Giants were 100% right to let him walk (not that Singletary was the right backup plan) and the Eagles would have been wiser to go after Henry, though its possible his heart was always set on Baltimore as they almost traded for him last year.

I’m thinking Philly might have looked at some film before signing him. His first year back after the knee, he wasn’t the same. Last year I thought he was almost the same. Dodging guys in the backfield is tough. I think he was RB12 last year? RB8 on this offense seems like a floor to me.

Poor guy has never had any help at all.either. oline has always sucked. No qb or wrs. Totally different now

 

[BassNBrew]

QB scoring?
4 or 6 for TD
1/20 or 1/25 pass yards
INT 0, -1, or -2

Totally flips the rankings.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

10. Isiah Pacheco (12), this is another "stars aligning" kind of guy. Was RB3 in PPG down the stretch, and that's in his range of outcomes. TDs could spike, no more McKinnon, offense just plays better overall. He's a target for me.

Im warming to him more and more.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

12. Joe Mixon (8), should be a better fit in Houston's under center offense than the Bengals shotgun heavy scheme. Very little competition for work and should punch in a lot of TDs. Ideal RB2 target.

I traded for him this offseason with this same through process.

The lingering quad has me concerned. IIRC he still hasn’t practiced, though it was reported he returned a couple weeks ago.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

24. Najee Harris (NR), Warren's injury, and more importantly the Steelers lack of passing game boost Najee up a bit

Warren expects to play week 1. That change your ranking at all?

 

[travdogg]

QB scoring?
4 or 6 for TD
1/20 or 1/25 pass yards
INT 0, -1, or -2

Totally flips the rankings.

4 per pass TD
25/pass yds
-2 INT
.5 PPR

I think those are the most common scoring systems, so that's what the ranks are by. Truthfully, I loathe PPR and think 6pt per pass TD should be the standard, and I've actually never seen a league that doesn't punish INTs.

 

[travdogg]

Fair enough—but running qb’s or not— I absolutely think that if Amon Ra finishes as a top 5 WR, and if Laporta finishes as a top 2-3 TE—-I don’t see Goff finishing outside of the top 15.

I mean, Goff wasn't a top-15 PPG QB last year, when St. Brown and LaPorta did that. He just stayed healthy. Goff was QB7 the same way Mixon was RB6.

10. Isiah Pacheco (12), this is another "stars aligning" kind of guy. Was RB3 in PPG down the stretch, and that's in his range of outcomes. TDs could spike, no more McKinnon, offense just plays better overall. He's a target for me.

Im warming to him more and more.

Fun fact, over the last 2 seasons, no RB in the NFL has a higher reception % than Pacheco, he's earned the pass catching role in KC, and McKinnon was turning that into 4-6 receiving TDs yearly, despite his presence sort of being a pass tell.

 

[travdogg]

24. Najee Harris (NR), Warren's injury, and more importantly the Steelers lack of passing game boost Najee up a bit

Warren expects to play week 1. That change your ranking at all?

Not really. I didn't think he'd be out long, figured week 3 at the very latest, with week 1 always on the table.

12. Joe Mixon (8), should be a better fit in Houston's under center offense than the Bengals shotgun heavy scheme. Very little competition for work and should punch in a lot of TDs. Ideal RB2 target.

I traded for him this offseason with this same through process.

The lingering quad has me concerned. IIRC he still hasn’t practiced, though it was reported he returned a couple weeks ago.

I think he's gotten some vet days. Also probably a good sign that Dameon Pierce seems to be struggling to hold the #2 job, so he's no threat to Mixon at all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fair enough—but running qb’s or not— I absolutely think that if Amon Ra finishes as a top 5 WR, and if Laporta finishes as a top 2-3 TE—-I don’t see Goff finishing outside of the top 15.

I mean, Goff wasn't a top-15 PPG QB last year, when St. Brown and LaPorta did that. He just stayed healthy. Goff was QB7 the same way Mixon was RB6.

10. Isiah Pacheco (12), this is another "stars aligning" kind of guy. Was RB3 in PPG down the stretch, and that's in his range of outcomes. TDs could spike, no more McKinnon, offense just plays better overall. He's a target for me.

Im warming to him more and more.

Fun fact, over the last 2 seasons, no RB in the NFL has a higher reception % than Pacheco, he's earned the pass catching role in KC, and McKinnon was turning that into 4-6 receiving TDs yearly, despite his presence sort of being a pass tell.

Picked him 2.07 tonight in a FBG league draft.

I should run it by your lists to see how ya think I did.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB scoring?
4 or 6 for TD
1/20 or 1/25 pass yards
INT 0, -1, or -2

Totally flips the rankings.

4 per pass TD
25/pass yds
-2 INT
.5 PPR

I think those are the most common scoring systems, so that's what the ranks are by. Truthfully, I loathe PPR and think 6pt per pass TD should be the standard, and I've actually never seen a league that doesn't punish INTs.

That explains a lot. I don't see much 1/25.

The Interboard League is 4 and 1/25 with 0 INT penalty. Usually top QBs can be found on the wire, Vince Young was a league winner. Last year Josh Dobbs, Jake Browning, and Russ Wilson basically matched Mahomes. Run a little bit and throw with reckless abandon usually suffices.

 

[Chaos34]

Tier 8:
33. Keenan Allen (39), on the bright side, Williams looks like he may hit the ground running. On the negative Allen put on some major weight (almost looks like a smaller TE) and its possible Odunze makes him less of a fulltime WR than we are accustomed to. Long a favorite of mine, but another guy I'd prefer someone else draft.

Good reading travdog. We differ here and there but no need to nitpick. The above is false though. I have some Keenan and when this report surfaced it sure looked true and disappointing, but it isn't. There was a misprinted weight on a depth chart and it went viral then turned into a meme on X complete with clever photoshops.

x.com

x.com

Keenan has been unstoppable in camp of late. He went through a spell where he couldn't beat Jaylon Johnson and he talked openly about it as an anomaly and he was smiling about how good Johnson is. The overweight thing popped up just after that. Lately he's been smoking every db he sees, Johnson included, and looks, dare I say, like Caleb's #1 target. I have Rome and Keenan back to back, take whoever falls, and 6-7 spots higher than you. I have DJ much lower and he's my fade of the crew. Passing at his ADP just in case.

 

[spurs44]

I now it's a small sample size but the 4 games that Anthony Richatdson played last year was terrific. Even his passing looked better than expected. He had a whole season to watch and learn. I think he's going to be a Jalen Hurts+.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Drafting tonight, last Redraft before the kick off
-Just want to go over my notes and compare to what the Big Dogg has up here
And this shouldn't be on Page 7 this close to the season opener

 

[kface]

Thanks for this - always great

 

[steelcityman]

Damn, going off your list I might as well throw in the towel.
Richardson, Tua(SFlex), Gibbs, Aiyuk, Pickens, McLaurin, Bowers all with negative marks and/or awful ranking. UGH!

 

[fightingillini]

Love how your rankings are not in lockstep with everyone else. You articulate your positions very well. I don't agree with everything, but I always love reading your rankings to get a different perspective on various players. Thanks for doing this.

 

[Gawain]

I have a Superflex draft tonight and am going to unabashedly steal your rankings. Thanks!