QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, he's simply the best year in year out. Fun fact, if he threw for 800 fewer yards last season, he still would have been QB1 overall. His rushing prowess is legendary at this point. Only Derrick Henry has more rush TDs since 2018. Losing Diggs hurts, but only in the sense that it makes tier 1 not a 1-man race.
2. Jalen Hurts, has a better OC, and isn't likely to be playing hurt for half the season. Only thing keeping him from #1 is possible tush push reduction.
3. Lamar Jackson, best running QB ever, took a step forward as a passer in Monken's offense. Only knock on him is the rushing TDs aren't the same as the 2 guys above him. That likely isn't changing with Henry on board.
Tier 2:
4. Patrick Mahomes, was 30th in aDOT, additions of Brown/Worthy suggest that isn't what they want the offense to be. Could upgrade to tier 1 if Rice isn't suspended until 2025.
5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.
Tier 3:
6. CJ Stroud, QB9 last year despite missing 2 games, and having major WR injury issues. Gets Dell back and adds Diggs. Volume likely won't be at Dak/Mahomes levels, but Stroud has better all-around weapons than anyone other than Purdy in my opinion.
7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.
8. Joe Burrow, I can see an argument for Burrow higher. His best says he should be a tier higher, but its hard to ignore he's played 4 seasons and 2 ended on IR. Combine that with a lack of rushing upside (that 5 TD season in 2022 feels like a fluke) and I think this spot is a fair hedge.
9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.
10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.
Tier 4:
11. Jordan Love, if he's the guy he was from week 12 on, he's an MVP candidate. I have some concerns that defenses could look better with a yar of tape on him, and that they run more with Jacobs than they did with banged up Jones/Dillon.
12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.
13. Caleb Williams, rarely does a rookie QB enter a situation with so many quality weapons.
14. Tua Tagovailoa, 2 years in a row he's fallen off down the stretch. Of course, he also led the NFL in passing yards last season, and Miami had an inordinate amount of rush TDs. Lack of rushing hurts his ceiling, but if the TDs regress to the mean, he's not all that different than Burrow.
Tier 5:
15. Trevor Lawrence, personally, I think he's a vastly overrated player, who honestly should be in a make-or-break season. He's also added I think better fits at WR in Thomas and Davis. Still only 25. As an aside, if Fields wins the Steelers job, he'll instantly be a top-15 guy, and arguably top-5.
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, he's simply the best year in year out. Fun fact, if he threw for 800 fewer yards last season, he still would have been QB1 overall. His rushing prowess is legendary at this point. Only Derrick Henry has more rush TDs since 2018. Losing Diggs hurts, but only in the sense that it makes tier 1 not a 1-man race.
2. Jalen Hurts, has a better OC, and isn't likely to be playing hurt for half the season. Only thing keeping him from #1 is possible tush push reduction.
3. Lamar Jackson, best running QB ever, took a step forward as a passer in Monken's offense. Only knock on him is the rushing TDs aren't the same as the 2 guys above him. That likely isn't changing with Henry on board.
Tier 2:
4. Patrick Mahomes, was 30th in aDOT, additions of Brown/Worthy suggest that isn't what they want the offense to be. Could upgrade to tier 1 if Rice isn't suspended until 2025.
5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.
Tier 3:
6. CJ Stroud, QB9 last year despite missing 2 games, and having major WR injury issues. Gets Dell back and adds Diggs. Volume likely won't be at Dak/Mahomes levels, but Stroud has better all-around weapons than anyone other than Purdy in my opinion.
7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.
8. Joe Burrow, I can see an argument for Burrow higher. His best says he should be a tier higher, but its hard to ignore he's played 4 seasons and 2 ended on IR. Combine that with a lack of rushing upside (that 5 TD season in 2022 feels like a fluke) and I think this spot is a fair hedge.
9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.
10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.
Tier 4:
11. Jordan Love, if he's the guy he was from week 12 on, he's an MVP candidate. I have some concerns that defenses could look better with a yar of tape on him, and that they run more with Jacobs than they did with banged up Jones/Dillon.
12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.
13. Caleb Williams, rarely does a rookie QB enter a situation with so many quality weapons.
14. Tua Tagovailoa, 2 years in a row he's fallen off down the stretch. Of course, he also led the NFL in passing yards last season, and Miami had an inordinate amount of rush TDs. Lack of rushing hurts his ceiling, but if the TDs regress to the mean, he's not all that different than Burrow.
Tier 5:
15. Trevor Lawrence, personally, I think he's a vastly overrated player, who honestly should be in a make-or-break season. He's also added I think better fits at WR in Thomas and Davis. Still only 25. As an aside, if Fields wins the Steelers job, he'll instantly be a top-15 guy, and arguably top-5.