What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Travdogg's positional rankings offseason edition (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, he's simply the best year in year out. Fun fact, if he threw for 800 fewer yards last season, he still would have been QB1 overall. His rushing prowess is legendary at this point. Only Derrick Henry has more rush TDs since 2018. Losing Diggs hurts, but only in the sense that it makes tier 1 not a 1-man race.

2. Jalen Hurts, has a better OC, and isn't likely to be playing hurt for half the season. Only thing keeping him from #1 is possible tush push reduction.

3. Lamar Jackson, best running QB ever, took a step forward as a passer in Monken's offense. Only knock on him is the rushing TDs aren't the same as the 2 guys above him. That likely isn't changing with Henry on board.

Tier 2:
4. Patrick Mahomes, was 30th in aDOT, additions of Brown/Worthy suggest that isn't what they want the offense to be. Could upgrade to tier 1 if Rice isn't suspended until 2025.

5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

Tier 3:
6. CJ Stroud, QB9 last year despite missing 2 games, and having major WR injury issues. Gets Dell back and adds Diggs. Volume likely won't be at Dak/Mahomes levels, but Stroud has better all-around weapons than anyone other than Purdy in my opinion.

7. Anthony Richardson
, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.

8. Joe Burrow, I can see an argument for Burrow higher. His best says he should be a tier higher, but its hard to ignore he's played 4 seasons and 2 ended on IR. Combine that with a lack of rushing upside (that 5 TD season in 2022 feels like a fluke) and I think this spot is a fair hedge.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.

Tier 4:
11. Jordan Love, if he's the guy he was from week 12 on, he's an MVP candidate. I have some concerns that defenses could look better with a yar of tape on him, and that they run more with Jacobs than they did with banged up Jones/Dillon.

12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.

13. Caleb Williams, rarely does a rookie QB enter a situation with so many quality weapons.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, 2 years in a row he's fallen off down the stretch. Of course, he also led the NFL in passing yards last season, and Miami had an inordinate amount of rush TDs. Lack of rushing hurts his ceiling, but if the TDs regress to the mean, he's not all that different than Burrow.

Tier 5:
15. Trevor Lawrence, personally, I think he's a vastly overrated player, who honestly should be in a make-or-break season. He's also added I think better fits at WR in Thomas and Davis. Still only 25. As an aside, if Fields wins the Steelers job, he'll instantly be a top-15 guy, and arguably top-5.
 
RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey, he's honestly making a run at being the best RB of the last 20 years. No brainer at #1 as usual.

Tier 2:
2. Breece Hall, had at least 22.6 points in 4 of last 5 games. Knee is good, and offense should be improved.

3. Bijan Robinson, it speaks to how high the talent is, that a low-end RB1 finish as a rookie in a bad offense, is considered a disappointment. New Falcons OC Zac Robinson comes from the McVay school which rides bellcows.

Tier 3:
4. Jonathan Taylor, despite being banged up and splitting more carries than he will this season, Taylor was RB5 PPG last year. Richardson's presence should goose the YPC back above 5, though receptions will be sacrificed. Those receptions are what keeps him behind Hall/Robinson.

Tier 4:
5. Derrick Henry, I haven't seen a declining player or a player who is suddenly gonna be in a timeshare. I think he's a strong candidate to lead the NFL in rushing TDs.

6. Kyren Williams, the RB2 PPG last season. I think McVay rides him again. I like Blake Corum, and I think Kyren's dynasty value is much lower than this, but I think they ride Kyren until he breaks, and if he does, this role may never come back. Riskier than the rest of the tier, but also the highest ceiling.

7. Saquon Barkley, a little overrated as a player in my opinion. He's never reclaimed his explosiveness post knee injury. He's also going to an offense, that while his YPC should rise, his receptions should fall, and a TD spike is no lock despite a better offense. I think he's a solid RB1, but I don't see top-5 PPG upside.

8. Joe Mixon, was miscast in Bengals shotgun heavy run scheme. Mixon is a downhill runner, and should thrive in Houston. Had awful TD luck last year, that I think corrects itself this season.

9. Jahmyr Gibbs, I want to be higher on him, but I can see the Lions regressing a bit, and can also see Gibbs not separating from Monty enough. If Monty goes down, Gibbs might be midwest CMC though.

Tier 5:
10. Travis Etienne, RB10 last season, and not much has changed for him. Maybe more big plays in the passing game can help his YPC bounce back?

11. Josh Jacobs, this is less of a RBBC than people think in my eyes. My only concern is if Jacobs 2022 burned him up. If the 2022 player shows up, he's a tier too low.

12. Isiah Pacheco, was RB3 in PPG from week 12 on. KC had a fluky low pass TD count last year, but still the upside is super high. Should probably be higher, but for whatever reason someone about him gives me pause.

13. Rachaad White, hard to bet against his volume, but I really want to. I've yet to be impressed by White, and I think Irving might be just as good, but I think TB trusts him, and on a team with not too many weapons, will continue to feed him.

14. De'Von Achane, I want to be higher on him. No reason to think he won't stay over 5 YPC, and its entirely possible he'll stay healthier and see a bigger workload this season. There's a top-5 ceiling here. Knocks are boom/bust nature, and Miami's unlikely to be repeated run/pass TD ratio. I'm a risk taker so I'll take him higher than this, but I totally understand why some wouldn't, so I'm hedging.

15. James Cook, he's shown himself to be an effective player, but without TDs its hard to argue him higher than this. Its giving credit for his talent that he's not in the next tier.

Tier 6:
16. Aaron Jones, still one of the best RBs in the NFL, but seems to be breaking down a bit. I'm betting on 1 last hurrah of sorts for Jones, in a sort of 2022 Dalvin Cook with less TDs way.

17. Zamir White, averaged 15.5 PPG over the last 4 weeks. Don't see Mattison or a day 3 rookie as a threat to him.

18. Rhamondre Stevenson, Pats offense has nowhere to go but up, and new OC Alex Van Pelt sure had the Browns running game cooking. Not worried about Gibson at all.

19. James Conner, was RB6 last year, with career best efficiency. He's also 29, and the Cards spent a day 2 pick on Trey Benson.

20. Alvin Kamara, I've been low on him for a couple years now, and I'm sticking to it. He's had 3 straight inefficient years, he rarely scores TDs anymore (thanks Taysom) and its possible/likely a healthy Kendre Miller pushes him for carries.

21. Kenneth Walker, RB17 PPG last season. I think he's clearly a better runner than Charbonnet. However, Seattle may not be the run heavy they've been under Pete Carroll anymore. On talent he should go much higher than this, but a lot of questions about Seattle's offense.

Tier 7:
22. Raheem Mostert, was RB19 in games with Achane. Expecting Achane to distance a bit, but if he goes down, Mostert could be off to the races again.

23. David Montgomery, I'm expecting the Lions offense to come down slightly (just natural regression) and I think Gibbs separates from him a bit. That said, if Gibbs goes down, Monty still has top-10 upside.

24. Devin Singletary, look Barkley is clearly a better RB, but its not like Barkley is some HOFer and Singletary is some scrub. They aren't THAT far apart. Singletary could see pretty close to a Barkley workload. Typically those bet on volume guys are dead zone RB's, but he's going in round 10, he's a steal that late, as any RB seeing 250 touches is gonna be an RB2.

25. D'Andre Swift, should start, but I don't see him pulling away from Herbert, who is a better runner. Not much ceiling.

26. Javonte Williams, should be more effective another year removed from ACL+ injury. He'll need to be as both Perine and McLaughlin looked more effective last season. Contract season.

27. Tony Pollard, I don't think the Titans gave him 8 million a year to play 2nd fiddle to Tyjae Spears. I think Pollard is the starter here. He's better than his 2023, but probably not as good as his 2022. Titans offense could surprise, but I don't really wanna bet on it.

28. Jerome Ford, maybe Chubb pulls a Peterson and comes back form his knee injury with a vengeance, but more likely he gets PUP'd, and Ford is the starter in the first half of the year. Ford was a solid enough RB2 in Chubb's absence last year, and that was with a lot of injuries to the offense at QB and OL.

29. Ezekiel Elliott, I'd be surprised if he didn't beat out Dowdle. Offense is much more pass heavy than in Zeke's prime, but TDs should be there.

Tier 8:
30. Jaylen Warren, his efficiency and big-play ability push him ahead of Najee for me. Both could see a YPC upgrade if/when Fields gets in the lineup, and if one gets hurt, the other has top-15 upside, even with Patterson likely being involved.
 
WR
Tier 1:
1. CeeDee Lamb, he scored a TD or gained 100+ yards in all of his last 12 games. That's special consistency. He's likely to lead the NFL in targets, he's very good RAC, and his route tree is as diverse as anyone on the NFL.

2. Tyreek Hill, still at his peak. He is #1 in PPG over the last 2 seasons, and Miami funnels him targets. TDs could easily go up.

Tier 2:
3. Ja'Marr Chase, I've always found Chase a little overrated NFL wise (more top-10 than top-3) but not everyone gets to play with Joe Burrow. The combination of talent, volume and situation is rarely beat. I just wish he was more consistent.

4. Justin Jefferson, I like JJ McCarthy, but if he's even within 40 YPG of Cousins it would be an upset. I think losing Cousins hurts Addison more than Jefferson, and we just saw him tear up with Nick Mullens, but I think the best WR in the NFL has lost some ceiling.

Tier 3:
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 2 years ago, I comped Amon-Ra to Hines Ward, turns out I was underrating him. If he were on a slightly less loaded offense I could argue him as high as WR3. He doesn't get the redzone work a lot of other guys do, because of how effective the Lions running game is, that's pretty much his only "issue"

6. Puka Nacua, WR9 PPG as a rookie. Might be the new Keenan Allen, where he's not fast, and has ok size, but he's just open all the time. McVay/Stafford peppers the #1, and I think that's Puka now.

7. AJ Brown, very unlucky last year, and likely benefits more from OC change than anyone. Kellen Moore has a tendency to really get his top WR going. If everything clicks he's a WR1 overall darkhorse.

8. Garrett Wilson, Rodgers has never shied from feeding 1 guy, and should be a huge upgrade from Z. Wilson (hell Tyrod will be a huge upgrade if he's forced to play) G. Wilson was 2nd in the NFL behind only Adams in uncatchable targets (54 of his 168) now, its possible (likely) that even with Rodgers the Jets are run/play defense team, but Wilson is the clear #1.

9. Deebo Samuel, can singlehandedly win any given week, and has a higher weekly floor than he gets credit for. Only issue is durability, as he's only had 1 full season, but TDs are plentiful. He's averaging over 5 rush TDs the last 3 seasons, and that isn't going away. He's 1 of 1, and I think that rare profile scares people off sometimes.

Tier 4:
10. Drake London, Falcons averaged 197 passing yards per game the last 2 seasons, Kirk Cousins has averaged 271. London has a 23% target share over that span, so WR1 numbers are on the table if Cousins plays close to normal.

11. Mike Evans, TDs are almost a lock to come down, but clear #1 status is as true as ever. Losing Canales likely hurts, but he's got a clear rapport with Mayfield.

12. Davante Adams, its a bet on talent here. Minshew sure peppered Pittman last year, and Adams is still a lot better than him. Does feel like the ceiling is gone though.

13. George Pickens, averaged 65 YPG in a broken passing game at age 22 last year. OC, QB, OL, all upgraded. Target hog teammate is gone. Steal of the draft at the moment in my opinion.

14. Brandon Aiyuk, elite player trapped in a non-elite role.

Tier 5:
15. Chris Olave, king of air yards, he feels like a better NFL than fantasy WR. He did have 4 top-20 weeks in his last 7, showing a bit more consistency, but I'm wary of betting on a next step coming with Derek Carr, and Olave isn't a contested catch guy that I think could just muscle his way into some TDs like Pickens or Adams.

16. Marvin Harrison, love him long term, and thought he was the best WR prospect since Calvin. But this isn't a great environment for big time production, and frankly WR16 as a rookie is a pretty high rank even if it doesn't feel like one.

17. Stefon Diggs, I think Diggs is going to be the latest veteran WR who has a bit of a rebirth as a slot WR. Dell and Collins handle the deep stuff, while Diggs continues racking up the receptions. Also think he'll be on his best behavior for at least 1 season.

18. Jaylen Waddle, absolutely a top-10 NFL WR in my eyes. Just stuck behind a top-2 guy. Torched the NFL's best secondary when Hill was out last year.

19. Tee Higgins, I'm pretty willing to just throw last season out when it comes to the Bengals offense. Higgins and Burrow essentially both missed half the season and weren't all that healthy when they were playing. I think his value has been overcorrected.

20. Tank Dell, I think he's a little sneaky as he'll likely see the least coverage in Houston and offers loads of big play ability. He was right there with (arguably ahead of) Nico when he went down.

21. DJ Moore, QB upgrade is more than offset by target competition. Likely very boom/bust.

22. DK Metcalf, if the Seahawks offense follows in the footsteps of the Huskies (new OC) this may be too low. Washington loved throwing in the redzone and throwing deep. Question is volume for DK.

23. Cooper Kupp, tough to rank. Was WR22 PPG last year, despite never really being healthy, but health is becoming a recurring issue and now he's 31. Could see a TD spike if he stays healthy as he just missed several last year.

24. Christian Kirk, should see more space with Davis/Thomas keeping Safeties deep. He's Lawrence's clear #1 guy, and while I like Thomas a lot long-term, I don't see him as a major threat in
2024.

Tier 6:
25. DeVonta Smith, very volatile player who disappears a lot. Quite efficient but takes clear backseat to AJ. Much better in best ball.

26. Zay Flowers, I think he's a fine ancillary weapon, but I think he takes a clear backseat to Andrews. He was a low-end WR2 with Andrews missing half the season. Possible he hits a few more big plays off PA with Henry around.

27. Amari Cooper, on the one hand, he was WR10 in PPG when he had Watson/Flacco at QB. On the other hand, they'll likely pass less than they did when Flacco was starting, and Cooper is now 30, and seems to get up slowly almost every play.

28. Michael Pittman, was a great for dumpoff specialist Minshew, but I think his receptions drop a ton with Richardson. He's also not anything special as a downfield weapon and that should see an increased emphasis with a stronger armed QB. I think we saw Pittman's ceiling last year.

29. Nico Collins, love his talent, but worth noting his targets were very inconsistent last season, and he's pretty boom/bust. I think defenses view him as the guy to stop, which could make him the sneaky low floor guy. Much better in best ball.

30. Malik Nabers, he's a rookie in a rough offense, but especially with Waller's retirement, there is nothing preventing top-15 target volume.

31. DeAndre Hopkins, this is where he was last year. Has a rapport with Levis, and Titans should pass more, though also Ridley hurts target monopoly.

32. Jayden Reed,
he's the guy the Packers scheme things for. Kinda feels like Kirk with more target competition, and maybe more talent.

Tier 7:
33. Hollywood Brown, I've always found him a bit overrated. That said, the amount of times he was wide open last year and missed was incredible. At least 4 40+ yard TDs that I can recall. Mahomes is likely not missing those throws. I'm not sure how much volume he'll see, but he should certainly see an efficiency spike.

34. Terry McLaurin,
its possible Daniels is the best QB McLaurin has ever played with, but its just as likely from a raw passing numbers standpoint, he's not as good as Howell. McLaurin feels like a boring WR3, who looks better than his numbers.

35. Diontae Johnson, pairing up with Dave Canales should keep Diontae as a target hog. Very possible Bryce Young is better than anything Johnson has had since Big Ben. Still, its not exactly an offense I am excited to target.

36. Calvin Ridley, I know he ran a limited route tree in Jacksonville, but no matter the reasons, I can't get on board with the idea going from Lawrence to Levis is gonna do anything to help his value.

37. Tyler Lockett, still the clear #2 even at age 32. His rapport with Geno keeps him in the top-40. Could see his yards jump up a bit in a more pass happy scheme.

38. Ladd McConkey, been driving the bandwagon since January. Should slot right in as Herbert's main guy, and while passing volume should be down in LA, its not going to be zero.

39. Keenan Allen, maybe my favorite WR to watch, Allen is going from a pass heavy offense with a great young QB, where he was the clear #1, to potentially that in worse weather, but more likely, a balanced offense, with a good but inconsistent young QB, where he's not the #1.

Tier 8:
40. Xavier Worthy, I think he went too high in the draft, but boy the landing spot couldn't be nicer. KC clearly wants to get back to being a big play passing team, and Mr. 4.21 certainly can help with that.
 
Last edited:
TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce, banged up for much of last season, still showed in the playoffs that he's the best TE in the league. Should see more space this season, and KC had a fluky low pass TD total.

2. Mark Andrews, still the same player he was 3 years ago, he's just had bad injury luck. That just means he goes in round 5 instead of round 2/3. Still Ravens #1 pass option.

3. Sam LaPorta, TDs feel slightly fluky, maybe not fluky, but regression to the mean worthy. Hasn't shown the ceilings Kelce/Andrews have, and I don't want to project it as they are clear #1 targets where LaPorta clearly isn't.

4. Kyle Pitts, his 21% TPRR, and 1.73 YPRR scream this is a top-5 TE talent, he's just been held back by awful QB play, and questionable play design. If Cousins adds 40-50 YPG to the pass game (likely) Pitts is primed to blow up.

5. Trey McBride, extremely impressive finish to last season including being the #1 TE in the NFL in YPRR. I think his volume could take a hit with Harrison on board, and the TD upside isn't as high as the guys above him, but he feels pretty safe as a top-5 guy.

Tier 2:
6. Dalton Kincaid, I'm a little perturbed that Dawson Knox is still around, and still was a sizeable part of the offense down the stretch last year. There is a world of upside if the Bills decide Kincaid is their new #1, but there is a lot of risk that they just don't have a #1. He's a darkhorse for TE1 overall, but also might not be all that different from last year, but with more defensive attention.

7. George Kittle, arguably the best all-around TE in the NFL, too often he's an afterthought, and 4th in the pecking order. That's not likely to change. Was TE7 PPG last season, and that feels fair.

Tier 3:
8. Evan Engram, I kinda want to put him lower. His splits with/without Kirk are gigantic. He's a high-floor, low ceiling type. Can't imagine he sees 143 targets again. The fact he's 8th, is my reminder to target TE highly if you can.

9. Jake Ferguson, 7th in targets last year, just had bad TD luck, so naturally he had 3 TDs in the playoff game. If he truly separates from Cooks as the #2 pass game option, he might be a tier low.

10. Dallas Goedert, better NFL TE than fantasy TE. Goedert has never topped 85 targets in a season. He's a great player in a good offense but needs an injury to Brown or Smith to really exceed this rank.

11. David Njoku, was a perfect match with Joe Flacco. But Flacco is gone now, and Jeudy has been added to likely take away some targets as well, at least more than Moore/Peoples-Jones did. Talents keeps him this high, but I could see him being a tier lower.

Tier 4:
12. Dalton Schultz, likely #4 target in a very good passing game. We've seen his ceiling, and its nothing special. That said, both Collins and Dell missed time last year, and Diggs is on the wrong side of 30, so maybe he's not the #4 all season.

13. Pat Freiermuth, looks like a top-10 TE whenever he's healthy, its just been a matter of volume and health. Almost all the things I said about Pickens apply here as well, only with some durability concerns. Ideal target for the wait on TE crowd.

Tier 5:
14. Brock Bowers, outstanding prospect who could, in theory, blow right by Jakobi Meyers (a solid WR) to the #2 role in the passing game. Minshew is the right type of QB for him to stack receptions up, its just a matter of betting on a rookie TE in a potentially bad offense. There is a shot he is WAY too low, but there's also a lot that can go wrong. Patience is likely required for those who invest.

15. Hunter Henry, high floor/low ceiling. New OC Van Pelt's offenses targeted TE a lot in Cleveland, and Henry won't be splitting with other guys like Njoku did for much of his career.
 
Last edited:
QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, he's simply the best year in year out. Fun fact, if he threw for 800 fewer yards last season, he still would have been QB1 overall. His rushing prowess is legendary at this point. Only Derrick Henry has more rush TDs since 2018. Losing Diggs hurts, but only in the sense that it makes tier 1 not a 1-man race.

2. Jalen Hurts, has a better OC, and isn't likely to be playing hurt for half the season. Only thing keeping him from #1 is possible tush push reduction.

3. Lamar Jackson, best running QB ever, took a step forward as a passer in Monken's offense. Only knock on him is the rushing TDs aren't the same as the 2 guys above him. That likely isn't changing with Henry on board.

Tier 2:
4. Patrick Mahomes, was 30th in aDOT, additions of Brown/Worthy suggest that isn't what they want the offense to be. Could upgrade to tier 1 if Rice isn't suspended until 2025.

5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

Tier 3:
6. CJ Stroud, QB9 last year despite missing 2 games, and having major WR injury issues. Gets Dell back and adds Diggs. Volume likely won't be at Dak/Mahomes levels, but Stroud has better all-around weapons than anyone other than Purdy in my opinion.

7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.

8. Joe Burrow, I can see an argument for Burrow higher. His best says he should be a tier higher, but its hard to ignore he's played 4 seasons and 2 ended on IR. Combine that with a lack of rushing upside (that 5 TD season in 2022 feels like a fluke) and I think this spot is a fair hedge.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.

Tier 4:
11. Jordan Love, if he's the guy he was from week 12 on, he's an MVP candidate. I have some concerns that defenses could look better with a yar of tape on him, and that they run more with Jacobs than they did with banged up Jones/Dillon.

12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.

13. Caleb Williams, rarely does a rookie QB enter a situation with so many quality weapons.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, 2 years in a row he's fallen off down the stretch. Of course, he also led the NFL in passing yards last season, and Miami had an inordinate amount of rush TDs. Lack of rushing hurts his ceiling, but if the TDs regress to the mean, he's not all that different than Burrow.

Tier 5:
15. Trevor Lawrence, personally, I think he's a vastly overrated player, who honestly should be in a make-or-break season. He's also added I think better fits at WR in Thomas and Davis. Still only 25. As an aside, if Fields wins the Steelers job, he'll instantly be a top-15 guy, and arguably top-5.

No Herbert at all in the top 15. Interesting.
 
Brian Robinson is way too low in your RB rankings. I also think if Daniels is all people think he will be, Terry will end up much higher on your list too (and hopefully Dotson as well, but not as confident there as I am with Terry).
 
It's difficult for me to project Eagles players this season because I have no idea how Kellen Moore will utilize the weapons he has.

Re: Saquon Barkley, Kellen Moore #1 RBs have been pretty consistently in the 70 target range. Barkley the last 3 seasons in NY was on a per game average of 4.4 (or about 76 targets for a full 17 games). I think ~70 targets for Barkley would be a reasonable expectation.

BTW, since 2020, Jalen Hurts rush TDs 41; Josh Allen rush TDs 36. :wink:
 
QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, he's simply the best year in year out. Fun fact, if he threw for 800 fewer yards last season, he still would have been QB1 overall. His rushing prowess is legendary at this point. Only Derrick Henry has more rush TDs since 2018. Losing Diggs hurts, but only in the sense that it makes tier 1 not a 1-man race.

2. Jalen Hurts, has a better OC, and isn't likely to be playing hurt for half the season. Only thing keeping him from #1 is possible tush push reduction.

3. Lamar Jackson, best running QB ever, took a step forward as a passer in Monken's offense. Only knock on him is the rushing TDs aren't the same as the 2 guys above him. That likely isn't changing with Henry on board.

Tier 2:
4. Patrick Mahomes, was 30th in aDOT, additions of Brown/Worthy suggest that isn't what they want the offense to be. Could upgrade to tier 1 if Rice isn't suspended until 2025.

5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

Tier 3:
6. CJ Stroud, QB9 last year despite missing 2 games, and having major WR injury issues. Gets Dell back and adds Diggs. Volume likely won't be at Dak/Mahomes levels, but Stroud has better all-around weapons than anyone other than Purdy in my opinion.

7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.

8. Joe Burrow, I can see an argument for Burrow higher. His best says he should be a tier higher, but its hard to ignore he's played 4 seasons and 2 ended on IR. Combine that with a lack of rushing upside (that 5 TD season in 2022 feels like a fluke) and I think this spot is a fair hedge.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.

Tier 4:
11. Jordan Love, if he's the guy he was from week 12 on, he's an MVP candidate. I have some concerns that defenses could look better with a yar of tape on him, and that they run more with Jacobs than they did with banged up Jones/Dillon.

12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.

13. Caleb Williams, rarely does a rookie QB enter a situation with so many quality weapons.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, 2 years in a row he's fallen off down the stretch. Of course, he also led the NFL in passing yards last season, and Miami had an inordinate amount of rush TDs. Lack of rushing hurts his ceiling, but if the TDs regress to the mean, he's not all that different than Burrow.

Tier 5:
15. Trevor Lawrence, personally, I think he's a vastly overrated player, who honestly should be in a make-or-break season. He's also added I think better fits at WR in Thomas and Davis. Still only 25. As an aside, if Fields wins the Steelers job, he'll instantly be a top-15 guy, and arguably top-5.

No Herbert at all in the top 15. Interesting.
I have Herbert close to 20. I'm expecting career lows in attempts and yards, and I think an efficiency spike is unlikely having lost Allen and co.

I also think the idea that Harbaugh will adapt to his talent and not just run his offense with a QB like Herbert to be unlikely. I remember at Stanford, Andrew Luck taking a backseat to the likes of Toby Gerhart and Stepfan Taylor. It was only after Harbaugh left for SF that Luck blew up.
 
Brian Robinson is way too low in your RB rankings. I also think if Daniels is all people think he will be, Terry will end up much higher on your list too (and hopefully Dotson as well, but not as confident there as I am with Terry).
I think Robinson is an underrated player, but I also think he's just not gonna see enough work to be more than a flex option. Its basically 50-50 for me, but I'm leaning Ekeler over Robinson.

I also think there is a decent shot (40%?) that Luke McCaffrey pushes Dotson out of the #2 spot.
 
It's difficult for me to project Eagles players this season because I have no idea how Kellen Moore will utilize the weapons he has.

Re: Saquon Barkley, Kellen Moore #1 RBs have been pretty consistently in the 70 target range. Barkley the last 3 seasons in NY was on a per game average of 4.4 (or about 76 targets for a full 17 games). I think ~70 targets for Barkley would be a reasonable expectation.

BTW, since 2020, Jalen Hurts rush TDs 41; Josh Allen rush TDs 36. :wink:
I don't think Barkley's targets follow Moore's history, I think they follow Hurts history. I'm expecting maybe 40 catches or so. Hurts is much more likely to take off instead of checking down than Prescott or Herbert were.
 
It's difficult for me to project Eagles players this season because I have no idea how Kellen Moore will utilize the weapons he has.

Re: Saquon Barkley, Kellen Moore #1 RBs have been pretty consistently in the 70 target range. Barkley the last 3 seasons in NY was on a per game average of 4.4 (or about 76 targets for a full 17 games). I think ~70 targets for Barkley would be a reasonable expectation.

BTW, since 2020, Jalen Hurts rush TDs 41; Josh Allen rush TDs 36. :wink:
I don't think Barkley's targets follow Moore's history, I think they follow Hurts history. I'm expecting maybe 40 catches or so. Hurts is much more likely to take off instead of checking down than Prescott or Herbert were.

In 2023, Hurts targeted Swift 49 times and Gainwell 37 times (plus another 6 to his other RBs so 92 total). Herbert targeted his RBs 94 times in 2023.

EDIT: Gainwell is so high because he was in the Eagles specialty packages, (3rd and long, 4 minute, 2 minute, RZ). Barkley should get a majority of those snaps this season.
 
It's difficult for me to project Eagles players this season because I have no idea how Kellen Moore will utilize the weapons he has.

Re: Saquon Barkley, Kellen Moore #1 RBs have been pretty consistently in the 70 target range. Barkley the last 3 seasons in NY was on a per game average of 4.4 (or about 76 targets for a full 17 games). I think ~70 targets for Barkley would be a reasonable expectation.

BTW, since 2020, Jalen Hurts rush TDs 41; Josh Allen rush TDs 36. :wink:
I don't think Barkley's targets follow Moore's history, I think they follow Hurts history. I'm expecting maybe 40 catches or so. Hurts is much more likely to take off instead of checking down than Prescott or Herbert were.

In 2023, Hurts targeted Swift 49 times and Gainwell 37 times (plus another 6 to his other RBs so 92 total). Herbert targeted his RBs 94 times in 2023.

EDIT: Gainwell is so high because he was in the Eagles specialty packages, (3rd and long, 4 minute, 2 minute, RZ). Barkley should get a majority of those snaps this season.
The PHI RB's actually had 93 targets. You forgot about Rashaad Dangerfield's 1 target.
 
No Chris Godwin in the top 40?
Probably wouldn't have been in my top-50. He doesn't get downfield anymore, he doesn't break tackles like he used to, and he doesn't have Tom Brady feeding him targets anymore. Truthfully, I think there is a decent chance Jalen McMillan pushes him for snaps by the end of the season.

There has been talk of him bouncing back moving back to the slot full time (he spent more time than usual outside last year) but I think that's just an excuse. I'm expecting something like 70-800-4, which might crack the top-40, but there's no real upside. Behind WR40, I'd rather take shots on guys like Christian Watson, Brian Thomas, Rome Odunze, or Keon Coleman, and wouldn't fault someone for preferring Rashid Shaheed or Jameson Williams. Even guys like Brandin Cooks or Mike Williams who are at least attached to better QBs.
 
20. Alvin Kamara, I've been low on him for a couple years now, and I'm sticking to it. He's had 3 straight inefficient years, he rarely scores TDs anymore (thanks Taysom) and its possible/likely a healthy Kendre Miller pushes him for carries.
PPR or no? It's a very important question.

Alvin Kamara
10048 total yards = 1004.8 fantasy points
77 total TD's = 462 fantasy points
505 receptions = 505 fantasy points
His receptions account for 25.6% of his fantasy scoring

Derrick Henry
10960 total yards = 1096.0 fantasy points
93 total TD's = 558 fantasy points
155 receptions = 155 fantasy points
His receptions account for 8.6% of his fantasy scoring
 
20. Alvin Kamara, I've been low on him for a couple years now, and I'm sticking to it. He's had 3 straight inefficient years, he rarely scores TDs anymore (thanks Taysom) and its possible/likely a healthy Kendre Miller pushes him for carries.
PPR or no? It's a very important question.

Alvin Kamara
10048 total yards = 1004.8 fantasy points
77 total TD's = 462 fantasy points
505 receptions = 505 fantasy points
His receptions account for 25.6% of his fantasy scoring

Derrick Henry
10960 total yards = 1096.0 fantasy points
93 total TD's = 558 fantasy points
155 receptions = 155 fantasy points
His receptions account for 8.6% of his fantasy scoring
I rank as .5 PPR. Trying to get the broadest appeal and all.

I'm not sure what their career numbers have to do with 2024 rankings though. Kamara hasn't been a TD scorer since 2020. 19 total TDs the last 3 years, versus 35 for Henry.
 
20. Alvin Kamara, I've been low on him for a couple years now, and I'm sticking to it. He's had 3 straight inefficient years, he rarely scores TDs anymore (thanks Taysom) and its possible/likely a healthy Kendre Miller pushes him for carries.
PPR or no? It's a very important question.

Alvin Kamara
10048 total yards = 1004.8 fantasy points
77 total TD's = 462 fantasy points
505 receptions = 505 fantasy points
His receptions account for 25.6% of his fantasy scoring

Derrick Henry
10960 total yards = 1096.0 fantasy points
93 total TD's = 558 fantasy points
155 receptions = 155 fantasy points
His receptions account for 8.6% of his fantasy scoring
I rank as .5 PPR. Trying to get the broadest appeal and all.

I'm not sure what their career numbers have to do with 2024 rankings though. Kamara hasn't been a TD scorer since 2020. 19 total TDs the last 3 years, versus 35 for Henry.
I was only posting their career numbers to show Kamara's bread and butter in fantasy comes from catching balls, and Henry's does not. Last year, 33% of Kamara's fantasy scoring came from catches. Scoring format matters big time when it comes to a guy like Kamara.
 
7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.

12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.


Too Low
 
  • Like
Reactions: mcd
5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.


Too High
 
5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.


Too High
Nice Goldilocks impression
 
Love this .

Not that anyone cares , but Breece Hall is my 5th rd keeper and Drake London is my 8th rd keeper.


So i see this as having my # 1 RB already and my # 2 wr. I pick 6th so im looking for a # 1 wr then a # 2 rb .

This write up gives me plenty to chew on as some of the stats and info you provided combined with ur insightful opinions, im narrowing the players im interested in .

Thank you 🤜🤛
 
Love this .

Not that anyone cares , but Breece Hall is my 5th rd keeper and Drake London is my 8th rd keeper.


So i see this as having my # 1 RB already and my # 2 wr. I pick 6th so im looking for a # 1 wr then a # 2 rb .

This write up gives me plenty to chew on as some of the stats and info you provided combined with ur insightful opinions, im narrowing the players im interested in .

Thank you 🤜🤛
Agree 1000% about the usefulness of write ups and thoughts, instead of just a list of names.

Thanks @travdogg
 
7. Anthony Richardson, super small sample size, but Richardson was QB1 overall in points per snap. I like the Colts staff and OL. Some boom/bust here.

12. Kyler Murray, was QB10 PPG last year. I do wonder if his rushing returns to elite levels or settles in at good. If another year removed from ACL surgery leads to running like its 2020 again, this will be too low.


Too Low
5. Dak Prescott, 4th in PPG since 2019. The only thing keeping him from tier 1 is his rushing disappeared post ankle injury. Absolutely could lead the league in passing yards and TDs.

9. Jayden Daniels, looks like RG3 all over again to me. Kingsbury offenses always run lots of plays, and any QB seeing 125+ rushes is a QB1.

10. Brock Purdy, otherworldly efficiency last season. Only 2000 Kurt Warner had a higher YPA than Purdy did last season. If SF increases his attempts, he has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing TDs.


Too High
Care to elaborate why you feel that way?
 
TJ Hockenson retire? Should I be selling?
Is Hockenson playing before Halloween? His numbers were gonna come down regardless of injury, with a rookie QB, and a healthy Jefferson. add an uncertain timeline, and its hard to call him a top-15 redraft option.
I think he is a top 15 redraft option for sure as he will likely give you a big boost right as you are hitting playoffs. There are enough TE options to weather the storm until he gets back but I wouldn't mind getting him cheaper than most and stashing him until he is ready. I think he will be a top 8 PPG guy once he comes back. That has some redraft value.
 
TJ Hockenson retire? Should I be selling?
Is Hockenson playing before Halloween? His numbers were gonna come down regardless of injury, with a rookie QB, and a healthy Jefferson. add an uncertain timeline, and its hard to call him a top-15 redraft option.
I think he is a top 15 redraft option for sure as he will likely give you a big boost right as you are hitting playoffs. There are enough TE options to weather the storm until he gets back but I wouldn't mind getting him cheaper than most and stashing him until he is ready. I think he will be a top 8 PPG guy once he comes back. That has some redraft value.
In addition to not knowing when he'll be back, I'm not confident in top-8 production when he comes back. His high-end production was very much a product of Jefferson being out in my opinion. The per game differences with/without Jefferson:

With=8.5 targets, 5.6 catches 54 yards .25 TDs
Without=9.9 targets, 7.1 catches 76 yards .43 TDs

Now factor in a rookie QB, and likely lower quality of play from Hockenson himself coming off an ACL tear. I think 8th in PPG is probably his absolute ceiling. I'm not sure stashing him is worth all that much. Sure, when he comes back he'll probably be better than Hunter Henry, but when will that be, and how worthwhile will that be?
 
Observations & picking nits...

Daniels QB8/Murray QB12:
Clearly going to be the hyped QB this year because of his rushing upside. But I find it interesting that you have Murray ranked QB12 even though coming off an ACL, he still accounted for 5.5 carries/game and scored at QB10. And now he has the best WR prospect to come into the league in a decade plus. I don't disagree actually with Daniels, but the logic applied to him should apply to Murray - perhaps moreso. My Rank: Murray QB9/Daniels QB10

Pollard RB27: TEN has spent two Top-11 picks on the left side of their OL the last two drafts. They brought on the best OL coach in the biz. The QB is going to need significant run game support and as much as Spears is a talent, I see his knee as a preset workload limitation factor. Pollard burned alot of people last year, but so did Aaron Jones (2.5 years older) and you have him RB16. Pollard at worst is an RB2. My Rank: Pollard RB18

Moore WR21: I don't see Caleb as this master distributor Game 1. Yes, the weapons CHI has now are very attractive and deep. But if Caleb is QB14 in your rankings, I think he does that off the back of a legit WR1 and Moore put up 1385 YFS/9 with lesser passers. My Rank: Moore WR13

Bowers TE14: I get it. Of the situations he could have gone to, LV was as meh as possible. And having drafted Mayer in Rd 2 last year...it's certainly fair to think that there's not enough volume here. And rookie TE's generally underwhelm. But Bowers isn't Dalton Kincaid, a generally accepted 1st round prospect acquired in the middle of Rd 1 - he might be the best TE prospect of the 21st century. And if TE9 is a guy like Ferguson who likely projects at a 750/6-7 type season, you best on upside and talent at a low ceiling position. My Rank: Bowers TE7
 
Observations & picking nits...

Daniels QB8/Murray QB12:
Clearly going to be the hyped QB this year because of his rushing upside. But I find it interesting that you have Murray ranked QB12 even though coming off an ACL, he still accounted for 5.5 carries/game and scored at QB10. And now he has the best WR prospect to come into the league in a decade plus. I don't disagree actually with Daniels, but the logic applied to him should apply to Murray - perhaps moreso. My Rank: Murray QB9/Daniels QB10

Pollard RB27: TEN has spent two Top-11 picks on the left side of their OL the last two drafts. They brought on the best OL coach in the biz. The QB is going to need significant run game support and as much as Spears is a talent, I see his knee as a preset workload limitation factor. Pollard burned alot of people last year, but so did Aaron Jones (2.5 years older) and you have him RB16. Pollard at worst is an RB2. My Rank: Pollard RB18

Moore WR21: I don't see Caleb as this master distributor Game 1. Yes, the weapons CHI has now are very attractive and deep. But if Caleb is QB14 in your rankings, I think he does that off the back of a legit WR1 and Moore put up 1385 YFS/9 with lesser passers. My Rank: Moore WR13

Bowers TE14: I get it. Of the situations he could have gone to, LV was as meh as possible. And having drafted Mayer in Rd 2 last year...it's certainly fair to think that there's not enough volume here. And rookie TE's generally underwhelm. But Bowers isn't Dalton Kincaid, a generally accepted 1st round prospect acquired in the middle of Rd 1 - he might be the best TE prospect of the 21st century. And if TE9 is a guy like Ferguson who likely projects at a 750/6-7 type season, you best on upside and talent at a low ceiling position. My Rank: Bowers TE7
I don't think Murray has the upside Daniels has, especially as a runner. Murray was on pace for about 90 carries last season, maybe that picks up another year removed from his ACL, but maybe it doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels ran it 150 times. I don't disagree Murray's supporting cast (with Harrison added) might be better, but that feels to me like more reason why Daniels is more likely to be running, and its possible he runs at the GL too. Kingsbury has always been a very run heavy playcaller inside the 5 (most in the NFL as Cards HC) and while that could be Ekeler, or Robinson, it could also be Daniels.

I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

I could absolutely see Pollard being higher. He's in a tier that goes up to #22. I don't see him and Aaron Jones as similar though. Tyjae Spears is a way bigger threat than Ty Chandler is, and the Vikings should just be a better offense in general. Jones also looked a lot better than Pollard last year (and I'm a Pollard defender) but Jones performance the last 6 games (when he was finally over his hamstring) was as good as any RB east of SF.

With Moore, I think his situation last year simply doesn't exist this year. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze will both be a lot more involved than Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott were. I think there is a non-zero chance (though obviously by my rankings I'm not projecting it) that Keenan Allen leads the Bears in receptions or TDs. Still, I have him in a tier that goes up to #15. I think Moore's targets, catches, yards, and TD's all come down a little bit. Maybe something like 120-80-1100-7.

Bowers has a world of upside for sure, I have little confidence in the Raiders offense, and feel Adams is the clear cut #1. If Bowers hits 7, I think he needs an Adams injury (or surprise deadline deal?) or the passing game to greatly exceed expectations. I'm also probably a little bias as a Bears fan, who thinks very little of Luke Getsy as a playcaller. No issues if someone prefers him to the guys a tier above him, he's more talented than those guys, I'm just not confident it happens in 2024.
 
Last edited:
Observations & picking nits...

Daniels QB8/Murray QB12:
Clearly going to be the hyped QB this year because of his rushing upside. But I find it interesting that you have Murray ranked QB12 even though coming off an ACL, he still accounted for 5.5 carries/game and scored at QB10. And now he has the best WR prospect to come into the league in a decade plus. I don't disagree actually with Daniels, but the logic applied to him should apply to Murray - perhaps moreso. My Rank: Murray QB9/Daniels QB10

Pollard RB27: TEN has spent two Top-11 picks on the left side of their OL the last two drafts. They brought on the best OL coach in the biz. The QB is going to need significant run game support and as much as Spears is a talent, I see his knee as a preset workload limitation factor. Pollard burned alot of people last year, but so did Aaron Jones (2.5 years older) and you have him RB16. Pollard at worst is an RB2. My Rank: Pollard RB18

Moore WR21: I don't see Caleb as this master distributor Game 1. Yes, the weapons CHI has now are very attractive and deep. But if Caleb is QB14 in your rankings, I think he does that off the back of a legit WR1 and Moore put up 1385 YFS/9 with lesser passers. My Rank: Moore WR13

Bowers TE14: I get it. Of the situations he could have gone to, LV was as meh as possible. And having drafted Mayer in Rd 2 last year...it's certainly fair to think that there's not enough volume here. And rookie TE's generally underwhelm. But Bowers isn't Dalton Kincaid, a generally accepted 1st round prospect acquired in the middle of Rd 1 - he might be the best TE prospect of the 21st century. And if TE9 is a guy like Ferguson who likely projects at a 750/6-7 type season, you best on upside and talent at a low ceiling position. My Rank: Bowers TE7
I don't think Murray has the upside Daniels has, especially as a runner. Murray was on pace for about 90 carries last season, maybe that picks up another year removed from his ACL, but maybe it doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels ran it 150 times. I don't disagree Murray's supporting cast (with Harrison added) might be better, but that feels to me like more reason why Daniels is more likely to be running, and its possible he runs at the GL too. Kingsbury has always been a very run heavy playcaller inside the 5 (most in the NFL as Cards HC) and while that could be Ekeler, or Robinson, it could also be Daniels.

I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

I could absolutely see Pollard being higher. He's in a tier that goes up to #22. I don't see him and Aaron Jones as similar though. Tyjae Spears is a way bigger threat than Ty Chandler is, and the Vikings should just be a better offense in general. Jones also looked a lot better than Pollard last year (and I'm a Pollard defender) but Jones performance the last 6 games (when he was finally over his hamstring) was as good as any RB east of SF.

With Moore, I think his situation last year simply doesn't exist this year. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze will both be a lot more involved than Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott were. I think there is a non-zero chance (though obviously by my rankings I'm not projecting it) that Keenan Allen leads the Bears in receptions or TDs. Still, I have him in a tier that goes up to #15. I think Moore's targets, catches, yards, and TD's all come down a little bit. Maybe something like 120-80-1100-7.

Bowers has a world of upside for sure, I have little confidence in the Raiders offense, and feel Adams is the clear cut #1. If Bowers hits 7, I think he needs an Adams injury (or surprise deadline deal?) or the passing game to greatly exceed expectations. I'm also probably a little bias as a Bears fan, who thinks very little of Luke Getsy as a playcaller. No issues if someone prefers him to the guys a tier above him, he's more talented than those guys, I'm just not confident it happens in 2024.
Fair enough - Counter points

As it pertains to Murray, let's not forget that he could be termed 'not right' as well coming off an ACL injury in 2023, not to mention dealing with a new offensive system and HC and no TC. His QB10 finish was ridiculously unspectacular and IS his established floor. I like Daniels and I think the chance for an RGIII rookie year type season is definitely on the table, but from my POV, when balancing risk/reward...IMO, having Daniels above Murray when his next pass will be his first is is not advisable.

Pollard was extremely inefficient last year...no doubt. His draft standing was based on his assuming the Zeke role and it didn't work out. But Jones now has multiple instances of hamstring issues now , is 2.5 years older and while his week 10-18 on was on brand, it was also done along side Love emerging as one of the leagues best QB's (Love - Week 10 on 217/319 2439 20/3). And even in his prime, Jones has always had his workload limited. So for my $$...I'm fine with people overlooking Pollard, but I can't see an 11 RB delta between the two. Feel like they should be tiered equally.

If you consider the average last year for pass attempts for an NFL team was 570, that's 57 more than the Bears had last year. And the Bears only threw for 19 TD's. You mention Mooney/Scott which represent another 48 receptions and even in your own rankings, you don't have Kmet (73/719/6) in your Top 15 TE's so there's production coming off that. Allen has missed an average of 3-4 games/year from 20-23 while also averaging 10.8 YPR and is 32. During that same span with QB's like Bridgewater, Darnold, Mayfield (pre-resurgent), Fields) Moore has averaged 80/1150/6 which seems to be your projection. Still an underrated stud.

For me the TE position is all about upside. Even solid TE's like Ferguson give you more inconsequential weeks than relevant ones. Whether Bowers shows out his rookie year or not, I can't see his floor being lower than 600/4-5, but he could 'hit'. The rumor that McVay wanted to go up and get him makes his ceiling that much juicier. Yes, Davante is still there, but he's also 32 and while the QB play in LV dropped from 22 to 23...we all know that this is an age where receivers struggle to keep their edge
 
Putting an unproven rookie in Caleb over proven QBs as Cousins, Goff and maybe Herbert maybe wishful thinking.

Daniels seems to be at high risk to me to eventually bust but should do allright his first year but his desire to set rushing records increases his injury risk.
 
Putting an unproven rookie in Caleb over proven QBs as Cousins, Goff and maybe Herbert maybe wishful thinking.

Daniels seems to be at high risk to me to eventually bust but should do allright his first year but his desire to set rushing records increases his injury risk.
I think an overlooked part of Caleb's game is his rushing ability. He's not gonna be running as much as Daniels is, but he's gonna be getting a pretty big boost over the likes of Goff and Cousins from it, and possibly Herbert as well. I see Caleb being on the Deshaun Watson level as a runner, where he's adding 300-400 yards and several TDs on the ground. Its worth pointing out Caleb ran for 21 TDs the last 2 years at USC.

Personally, I think Caleb has the best weapons of that group and will see more volume than Herbert. He isn't coming off a torn Achilles like Cousins, and I personally think Goff comes down a bit across the board, as he has less volume due to the defense being improved. I think Goff's attempts, yards, and TDs all come down from his 2022 numbers, let alone 2023.

All 3 of those guys are in my 16-20 range though, so they aren't far off.
 
Putting an unproven rookie in Caleb over proven QBs as Cousins, Goff and maybe Herbert maybe wishful thinking.

Daniels seems to be at high risk to me to eventually bust but should do allright his first year but his desire to set rushing records increases his injury risk.
I think an overlooked part of Caleb's game is his rushing ability. He's not gonna be running as much as Daniels is, but he's gonna be getting a pretty big boost over the likes of Goff and Cousins from it, and possibly Herbert as well. I see Caleb being on the Deshaun Watson level as a runner, where he's adding 300-400 yards and several TDs on the ground. Its worth pointing out Caleb ran for 21 TDs the last 2 years at USC.

Personally, I think Caleb has the best weapons of that group and will see more volume than Herbert. He isn't coming off a torn Achilles like Cousins, and I personally think Goff comes down a bit across the board, as he has less volume due to the defense being improved. I think Goff's attempts, yards, and TDs all come down from his 2022 numbers, let alone 2023.

All 3 of those guys are in my 16-20 range though, so they aren't far off.
Feels like a “safe” Goff later in redraft plus an upside rookie like Caleb or Daniel’s might be a fun way to go this year if you wait on QB
 
Lot of people in here on the Bowers hype train....I wonder if those same people were on the Pitts hype train a couple years ago. "Generational TEs" are passe.

Also, all due respect but Mixon at RB8 is hilarious. Apart from an anomaly of a sophomore season, dude's career high season ypa is 4.1. Just watch him play and his burst (if he ever had any) is well gone. Moves like molasses.
 
Lot of people in here on the Bowers hype train....I wonder if those same people were on the Pitts hype train a couple years ago. "Generational TEs" are passe.

Also, all due respect but Mixon at RB8 is hilarious. Apart from an anomaly of a sophomore season, dude's career high season ypa is 4.1. Just watch him play and his burst (if he ever had any) is well gone. Moves like molasses.
Mixon is gonna have a big (and secure) workload. The Texans are a better schematic fit for him than the Bengals, and Mixon is a valuable pass catcher.

I've got Mixon having 240-1000-8 rushing and 50-400-2 receiving. That's 4.2 YPC and 8 YPR, which isn't that different than what he did last year, where he was RB6.

Lot of people in here on the Bowers hype train....I wonder if those same people were on the Pitts hype train a couple years ago. "Generational TEs" are passe.

As a rookie, Pitts was TE6 in total points and TE11 in ppg. @travdogg has Bowers at TE14... are you arguing that he has him too low?
Its kind of amazing to me how Pitts is viewed, when the only time he had a starting caliber QB he had the 2nd most yards by a rookie TE in NFL history.
 
I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

The Murray ranking is my biggest disagreement and is also against consensus. There are a slew of reasons why most have him ranked higher than you.

There is a post on Twitter that depicts what happens when already good QBs get an alpha WR(Burrow/Chase etc.) Needless to say the QB beneficiary takes a leap in fantasy production.

Most believe the Cardinals are in for another leap this year and that may likely be your blindspot/disagreement.
 
I don't think Murray has the upside Daniels has, especially as a runner. Murray was on pace for about 90 carries last season, maybe that picks up another year removed from his ACL, but maybe it doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels ran it 150 times. I don't disagree Murray's supporting cast (with Harrison added) might be better, but that feels to me like more reason why Daniels is more likely to be running, and its possible he runs at the GL too. Kingsbury has always been a very run heavy playcaller inside the 5 (most in the NFL as Cards HC) and while that could be Ekeler, or

"Might Be Better"

"Maybe that picks up"

Seems like you are trying to justify a ranking by taking the glass is half empty approach with Kyler.


The only justification for ranking Kyler this low IMHO is if you don't believe in Gannon's system (which most sharps do) and/or you don't believe Kyler can stay healthy.
 
Lot of people in here on the Bowers hype train....I wonder if those same people were on the Pitts hype train a couple years ago. "Generational TEs" are passe.

As a rookie, Pitts was TE6 in total points and TE11 in ppg. @travdogg has Bowers at TE14... are you arguing that he has him too low?

:2cents: I do think Bowers is too low. Not by much due to the rookie risk and QB situation. But I think he ends he season top 10.
 
There is a post on Twitter that depicts what happens when already good QBs get an alpha WR(Burrow/Chase etc.) Needless to say the QB beneficiary takes a leap in fantasy production.

I haven't seen the post you reference, but the example of Burrow/Chase may be a bit misleading. My recollection is that a lot changed beyond just adding Chase that would have contributed to Burrow's big performance leap. IIRC Mixon, starting TE Uzomah, and the OL missed a lot of games in 2020, and Burrow and Higgins were rookies who got better. Chase was certainly a difference maker, but it wasn't just him.
 
I haven't seen the post you reference, but the example of Burrow/Chase may be a bit misleading. My recollection is that a lot changed beyond just adding Chase that would have contributed to Burrow's big performance leap. IIRC Mixon, starting TE Uzomah, and the OL missed a lot of games in 2020, and Burrow and Higgins were rookies who got better. Chase was certainly a difference maker, but it wasn't just him.

It gives several examples...not just Burrow...I'll try to find it.

Needless to say, it's clear some are not taking into account the massive WR1 upgrade.
 
Last edited:
I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

The Murray ranking is my biggest disagreement and is also against consensus. There are a slew of reasons why most have him ranked higher than you.

There is a post on Twitter that depicts what happens when already good QBs get an alpha WR(Burrow/Chase etc.) Needless to say the QB beneficiary takes a leap in fantasy production.

Most believe the Cardinals are in for another leap this year and that may likely be your blindspot/disagreement.

"Might Be Better"

"Maybe that picks up"

Seems like you are trying to justify a ranking by taking the glass is half empty approach with Kyler.


The only justification for ranking Kyler this low IMHO is if you don't believe in Gannon's system (which most sharps do) and/or you don't believe Kyler can stay healthy.
I say things like "might be better" and "maybe picks up" because I think they could possibly happen, but I don't think they will. But I don't feel strongly enough about them to be 100% declare that won't happen. If you wanted to have Murray 3 spots higher, I wouldn't object too strongly, I just feel the 3 ahead of him (Daniels/Purdy/Love) have higher upsides.

I love Harrison long-term, but I HIGHLY DOUBT he makes anything close to a Chase-like impact. That was a perfect match of player/team/situation. Same thing with Jefferson in Minnesota. I think Harrison's rookie year will more closely resemble someone like Chris Olave's.

I think Kyler's rushing numbers stay about the same, and his passing numbers take a small step up. I think something like 3700-22-11 passing and 500-5 rushing.
 
I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

The Murray ranking is my biggest disagreement and is also against consensus. There are a slew of reasons why most have him ranked higher than you.

There is a post on Twitter that depicts what happens when already good QBs get an alpha WR(Burrow/Chase etc.) Needless to say the QB beneficiary takes a leap in fantasy production.

Most believe the Cardinals are in for another leap this year and that may likely be your blindspot/disagreement.

"Might Be Better"

"Maybe that picks up"

Seems like you are trying to justify a ranking by taking the glass is half empty approach with Kyler.


The only justification for ranking Kyler this low IMHO is if you don't believe in Gannon's system (which most sharps do) and/or you don't believe Kyler can stay healthy.
I say things like "might be better" and "maybe picks up" because I think they could possibly happen, but I don't think they will. But I don't feel strongly enough about them to be 100% declare that won't happen. If you wanted to have Murray 3 spots higher, I wouldn't object too strongly, I just feel the 3 ahead of him (Daniels/Purdy/Love) have higher upsides.

I love Harrison long-term, but I HIGHLY DOUBT he makes anything close to a Chase-like impact. That was a perfect match of player/team/situation. Same thing with Jefferson in Minnesota. I think Harrison's rookie year will more closely resemble someone like Chris Olave's.

I think Kyler's rushing numbers stay about the same, and his passing numbers take a small step up. I think something like 3700-22-11 passing and 500-5 rushing.

Just curious, you say Purdy has a higher "upside." What are your projections for him? Sometimes, more of something doesn't always equate to better.
 
I don't think Murray will be worse than he was last year, and him being 12th after being 10th PPG last year, isn't really saying that. Its saying other guys that weren't ahead of him last year for whatever reason, could be. Guys like Burrow who was never right last year, or Daniels who was in college last year. Murray could very well be the safer play, because we know what he can do on the NFL level, but I like Daniels role (or what I think his role will be) more.

The Murray ranking is my biggest disagreement and is also against consensus. There are a slew of reasons why most have him ranked higher than you.

There is a post on Twitter that depicts what happens when already good QBs get an alpha WR(Burrow/Chase etc.) Needless to say the QB beneficiary takes a leap in fantasy production.

Most believe the Cardinals are in for another leap this year and that may likely be your blindspot/disagreement.

"Might Be Better"

"Maybe that picks up"

Seems like you are trying to justify a ranking by taking the glass is half empty approach with Kyler.


The only justification for ranking Kyler this low IMHO is if you don't believe in Gannon's system (which most sharps do) and/or you don't believe Kyler can stay healthy.
I say things like "might be better" and "maybe picks up" because I think they could possibly happen, but I don't think they will. But I don't feel strongly enough about them to be 100% declare that won't happen. If you wanted to have Murray 3 spots higher, I wouldn't object too strongly, I just feel the 3 ahead of him (Daniels/Purdy/Love) have higher upsides.

I love Harrison long-term, but I HIGHLY DOUBT he makes anything close to a Chase-like impact. That was a perfect match of player/team/situation. Same thing with Jefferson in Minnesota. I think Harrison's rookie year will more closely resemble someone like Chris Olave's.

I think Kyler's rushing numbers stay about the same, and his passing numbers take a small step up. I think something like 3700-22-11 passing and 500-5 rushing.

Just curious, you say Purdy has a higher "upside." What are your projections for him? Sometimes, more of something doesn't always equate to better.
I think Purdy is an extremely efficient player, who is still on the rise. He showed clear improvement from year 1 to year 2, and I expect the 49ers to put more on his plate just as they did last year. His 9.6 YPA is likely unsustainable, but there is no reason he won't continue to lead the league in YPA, so the drop might not be THAT far. Jimmy G was routinely around 8 YPA, and Purdy is clearly better than him, with better weapons than Jimmy G had, as he barely got to play with CMC, and they've since drafted a 1st round WR.

With even a moderate increase in attempts, let's say 500 to 525, which would be just 3 per game, I think Purdy could league the league in pass TDs or passing yards. I don't think people realize how good Purdy was last season. He was QB6, and was 5th in passing yards, and 3rd in pass TDs. This was despite being 20th in attempts. I also think Purdy could contribute a bit more as a rusher. He used his legs more than ever in the playoffs last year, and while I'm not saying he'll suddenly be a huge weapon with his legs. 200 yards and 3 TDs seems reasonable.

If I could guarantee that his attempts go up, I could argue him between Dak and Stroud. I'm hedging a bit putting him as low as I have. I think very little separates Purdy and Stroud, and them being 4 spots apart emphasizes how tight that tier is.
 
Always like reading peoples take on players and ranking them. Not easy to do. Easy for people to criticize and nit-pick but overall good job.

One RB may be missing and maybe a sleeper in many peoples eyes - Moss.

Thoughts on Moss? If he picks up where he left off with INDY last year he could smash with CIN if he's the workhorse.

I sort of want to try to acquire Moss just not sure what to offer.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top