Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition) (2 Viewers)

[travdogg]

These rankings are meant to appeal to the broadest range of players so its 4pt pass TD, and half PPR.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen, its tight at the top, but I lean Allen due to his incredible consistency. He's been a top-3 QB in 5 straight seasons. While his passing yards have gone down almost 50 yards per game since Joe Brady took over, his rush TDs have more than doubled going from 13 (in 21-22) to 28. I don't see that part of Buffalo's offense changing at all. Allen I think also gets a small bonus from not being particularly reliant upon anyone around him. He isn't going to be sunk by an injury to one of his weapons. Its also possible one of his weapons does break out.

2. Jayden Daniels, I was very tempted to put him #1. He was #3 per game last year, throwing out the Panthers game he went down on the 1st series in (a game Mariota went for almost 30 in, who knows what Daniels would have done?) he's a strong candidate to lead the position in rushing yards, and unlike Lamar, calls his own number quite a bit (not as much as Allen/Hurts) at the GL. Also, unlike everyone else in this tier, his offense was clearly upgraded around him, adding Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil.

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

4. Jalen Hurts, the tush push survived, so Hurts is basically a lock for 12+ rush TDs. Hurts has been the QB2 PPG since taking the starting job in 2020. He's also got BY FAR the best weapons of this tier, and arguably just in general. Its a little less pretty than the other 3, but Hurts gets the job done just the same. Its also possible a new OC throws the ball more, or that the defense (which lost multiple starters) or Barkley take a step back. I've done a handful of best ball drafts, and like the teams more that have a QB from this tier than waiting.

Tier 2:
5. Joe Burrow, I thought about making Burrow a tier of his own, but I really hate doing that. Burrow is likely to lead the NFL in passing, but the lack of rushing keeps him in tier 2, even if he's basically the new Drew Brees. Burrow had the 20th most pass attempts in NFL history last season, some regression is likely, and he's also more weapon reliant than most, even though I'd argue he elevates Chase/Higgins as much or more than they do him. Its just a very condensed offense. There is absolutely a scenario where Burrow throws for 5000-50. But he almost has to if he's gonna be a tier 1 guy.

6. Patrick Mahomes, on the 1 hand, he's coming off a QB12 finish, on the other hand, he lost his starting RB, and top-2 WRs all by week 4. I think an overcorrection may be at play here. We know he has top-5 ability, and he's likely going to have a chip on his shoulder given how the season ended. I'm not by any means saying the QB1 finishes are coming back, but I think its just as unlikely that QB12 is just what he is now.

7. Baker Mayfield, Mayfield had a monster season last year, but regression is basically a lock. Just a matter of how much. Liam Coen is a huge loss, as the Bucs with largely the same personnel scored 21 more TDs last season than in 2023. Mayfield also put up more than double his career average as a rusher. He averaged a TD on 7.2% of his passes, which is unsustainable. He does have elite weapons (and arguably league best depth) but I think somewhere between 2023-2024 lies his 2025, and likely closer to 2023. Not that I'm knocking Baker himself. He's greatly exceeded any and all expectations of replacing Tom Brady, and half the league should be kicking themselves for letting him fall through the cracks. I'd argue no team in the NFL has an easier path to a division title than Tampa Bay, and Mayfield is a huge part of that.

Tier 3:
8. Justin Fields, Fields has been a top-10 fantasy QB (QB7 PPG since 2022) his entire career, and Aaron Glenn came out and said "we want Fields running" which other coaches have often attempted to curb. Glenn also mentioned using Fields on tush pushes, which would be a huge boon as Fields has only 2 1-yard TDs in his career. If he stays healthy, there is a Burrow level ceiling here. Of course, more so than anyone else in the top-15, he's dependent on his rushing, which also increases his injury risk. He also doesn't have a lot of weapons to work with in the passing game. Unlike in Pittsburgh, he's got no real chance of being benched, as only 36 year old (and even less durable) Tyrod Taylor is the #2. If I don't end up with a tier 1 guy, I'm probably waiting past the tier 2 guys and grabbing someone from this tier, maybe 2 of them.

9. Brock Purdy, move over Rodney Dangerfield, there is a new Mr. gets no respect. I almost feel like Purdy is still getting being Mr. Irrelevant held against him. He's been a top-10 QB since he took over in 2022, and even last year was QB9 despite getting half a season from Aiyuk/Trent Williams, and like 3 games from CMC, and having a clearly not right Deebo. Despite all that, Purdy still had an elite YPA and added some major rushing value that may or not be sticky. Now CMC is back, Aiyuk should be at some point, and its possible Pearsall takes a step forward after being shot in the chest last summer.

10. JJ McCarthy, everything has lined up for him in 2025. Darnold gone, and only replaced by zero threat Sam Howell, and huge interior OL upgrades. I think Kevin O'Connell is as QB friendly a HC as any in the league. I don't think Sam Darnold is a good QB, he's a passable starter, Cousins was an above average starter, I think McCarthy could quickly prove to be better than either, and even if he's not, in 2023 when Cousins was out Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens combined for QB13 in his absence, despite not having Jefferson for many of those games. My 2 most drafted QBs are Fields and McCarthy, and I feel great about that.

 

[travdogg]

Tier 4:
11. Kyler Murray, he's a bit of a wildcard, I think. He's said he wants to run more now that he's another year removed from his ACL tear, but does the coaching staff want that? He's got full offensive continuity from last season, and its possible Marvin Harrison takes a big step in year 2, or that James Conner is less effective. Ultimately, I'm probably being a little conservative with Kyler, as we are in year 7 now, he's likely what he is, which is a solid, but unspectacular, low-end QB1. Of note, he did average 58 more YPG passing in the 2nd half of last season, but that also led to more turnovers, so I hesitate to call it sticky.

12. Trevor Lawrence, absolutely love the Liam Coen hire. Lawrence has been arguably the biggest boom/bust QB the last few years, and I feel that's largely been because Doug Pederson was trying to force deep balls, but Lawrence had his most success throwing to Kirk/Engram in the short/intermediate range. Those guys are both gone, but Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter could be as good as any 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL in short order, and Coen has already shown the blueprint for this in Tampa. He's also been a sneaky runner, where 300-4 feels safe if he stays healthy (Al-Shaair should have gotten an indefinite suspension last year for his hit on Lawrence) and this team may have lots of trouble rushing possibly leading to a pass attempt spike.

13. Caleb Williams, he had a really interesting rookie season, where he was extremely boom/bust. He was either in the top-5 or out of the top-20 almost every week. The offseason went about as well as possible for him, with multiple OL upgrades, and the top 2 rookie picks being pass catchers, not to mention the crown jewel of assistant coaches coming on to be his HC. He needs a lot of work on his pocket awareness, but its reasonable to wonder if he just lost confidence and that's a fixable issue. Williams averaged just under 30 rushing yards per game, but with 0 rushing scores. That number could easily jump to 2-4 with nothing about his usage changing.

14. Bo Nix, this is probably lower than most will have him. I think he has a lower ceiling than people think. I think Denver has maybe the NFL's best defense, and they clearly were unhappy with how little they get out of their running game, and completely changed that room. Nix was a little TD dependent but was nonetheless QB5 in the 2nd half of last season. I do think his rushing numbers might have been a little fluky, and more due to not trusting the RBs, but his mobility is just fine and can be an asset. I think 430-4 on the ground is likely not happening again though. Its worth noting that in Payton's 3 post-Brees seasons, his teams have averaged 29 TD passes, and that's been mostly with Nix, Russ, and Jameis. If one of the young big play WRs (Mims? Franklin?) break out, it'd really be a boon.

15. Jared Goff, I feel compelled to include him, as I think he may have the league's best supporting cast, but the upside is non-existent, due to a lack of rushing at all. Goff has the most passing yards per game over the last 2 seasons, and even then, he's just been an average fantasy starter. The offseason has gone very poorly in my eyes, losing Ben Johnson, Frank Ragnow, and Kevin Zeitler. All of their replacements are questionable. Morton in particular makes me a little nervous, as his previous playcalling stints were on a bottom 5 Jets offense, and some bad USC teams. He seems to be more interested in pushing the ball downfield, and that might not be a great fit here. The Lions scored 68 TDs last season, and its likely they lose AT LEAST 15 or so, just off natural regression, let alone their offseason losses. Also, the defense should be healthier (it'd be hard not to be) this season.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley, I don't want the #1 overall pick this year, but if I do get it, I'm holding my nose a bit and taking Barkley. He's a clear regression candidate, but its hard to really argue anyone over him. Barkley was an unbelievable big play machine last season, with 7 TDs over 60 yards, the previous best in a season was 4 by 2012 Adrian Peterson. Its very reasonable to expect that number to go down. He also loses more GL work than any star RB in the NFL both due to Hurts being a great GL hammer with the tush push, and honestly, Barkley not being a good GL runner. Barkley in my eyes wasn't as good as his numbers last season, I thought MVP talk was ludicrous, being RB for the Eagles is an easier job than anywhere else, even Miles Sanders was consistently over 5 YPC. Having said that, the situation hasn't changed much. A new OC and new contract may lead to fewer carries (possibly/likely offset by more catches) and its not like Shipley/Dillon are threats to his role.

2. Bijan Robinson, he feels like an extremely safe pick, but the ceiling is maybe a little limited. His role is unlikely to get any bigger, with 365 touches last season (despite maybe the league's best backup behind him) and unless the offense takes a huge step forward with Penix its gonna be tough to improve on 15 TDs. Losing Drew Dalman could be a big loss, though the Falcons still have a very good OL. One issue Bijan has had is a lack of big plays, only one run over 30 yards last season. That's probably his best avenue to be more productive, but also the toughest one to really bet on. Still centerpiece of his offense, and good OL makes him a top-5 lock in my opinion, and there is something to be said for peace of mind.

3. Jahmyr Gibbs. on a per-snap basis, he's been the best RB in the NFL since 2023. The concerns are OL losses, and a new OC. Also, his splits with/without Montgomery are MASSIVE. 8 of his 20 TDs last season came in 4 games Monty was injured for. He averaged almost double the PPG in games Monty missed. Also, the Lions are due for offensive regression. Ok, so that's a lot of negatives, why is he RB3 then? Because he might be the scariest RB in the NFL, a guy who wins inside and out, and in the pass game, and its still very possible he just dusts Monty at some point. I said toward the end of his rookie season, I got Chris Johnson vibes from him, and last year certainly didn't disappoint.

4. Ashton Jeanty, since I started grading rookies in 2017, Jeanty is my #1 RB prospect. He pairs best runner in the NFL talent, with high-end receiving ability. He's also going to an offense that may be built around him, and with coaches (Carroll, Kelly) who have overseen some high-quality RB production (Lynch, McCoy) of course, its always a little risky to take a rookie super highly. Marvin Harrison was this level of WR prospect a year ago, and while he wasn't a bust per se, he was well below expectations. Jeanty is going to a likely last place team with a middling OL, and a good, but aging QB. Of note, among RBs chosen in the top-10, you have to go all the way back to 2009 CJ Spiller to find one who didn't finish as a top-10 RB as a rookie.

Tier 2:
5. Derrick Henry, it was wild so many were writing him off due to age last season. They clearly hadn't been watching him play. He's shown no signs of slowing down and is the only current RB I feel confident calling a future HOFer. Receptions are always the thing holding back from being #1 overall, and that's not about to change, but he's a strong candidate (favorite?) to lead the league in rushing yards and TDs. I do wonder ever so slightly if the Ravens scale back his workload late in games this season. With his new contract, and Keaton Mitchell back healthy, I could see maybe slightly less work. Very high floor pick.

6. Christian McCaffrey, do you feel lucky? Since 2020, CMC has missed almost as many games as he's played. Since 2017, 4 of the top-10 fantasy seasons, including #1 and #2 belong to CMC. If he stays healthy, he's likely the best player in fantasy, this is clearly a hedge.

7. Josh Jacobs, feels like another really high floor pick. He was a perfect fit for Matt LaFleur's offense, and it seemed like once the Packers realized the offense should flow through him and not Jordan Love, he really took off, with 16 TDs in his last 12 games. So why isn't he higher? Well, for starters, he's not really a big play threat, he's also not a huge receiving weapon, though more than other workhorses like Henry or Taylor. I also have some (very small) concern that Green Bay looks to work in another RB, at least more than the RBs ranked around him.

8. De'Von Achane, his big plays took a predictable tumble as his usage got bigger, but I think that could bounce back a little this year, with a potentially better OL, particularly inside. There is also a small concern he could cede GL work to someone else given his size, and going 1 for 5 on runs from the 1 last season. Then again, its not like anyone else did much better. Mostert was 1 for 3, and he'd had 20 TDs the year before, its just as (arguably more) likely that was an OL issue not an Achane one. The real issue is Tua's health. Achane was RB2 overall in games Tua played last year and wasn't even an RB2 in games he missed. In some ways this is similar to the CMC question, though with less track record of success.

9. Bucky Irving, my favorite sleeper from last season (I had him on all but 1 team last year) Irving led the league in yards after contact per play last year (a very independent RB stat) and also led the league in % of runs over 30 yards. By the end of the season, he was playing 70% of the snaps, and that feels likely to carry over, even with the OC change. He also caught 90% of his passes last season, an all-time record for rookies with at least 40 targets. Its possible he makes a Gibbs-like leap in year 2. The biggest issue to me is Liam Coen. Tampa Bay had over 1000 more rushing yards, almost 2 more yards per carry, and 8 more rush TDs than in 2023. The run game also had a big spike after Godwin got hurt.

Tier 3:
10. Jonathan Taylor, one of the most frustrating players to watch last season, as he routinely kept passing up 4-5 yard gains, trying to get 20+. He's also missed at least a month in 3 straight seasons, and it wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't long for the Colts. That said, the offense is built around him right now, and when he's on, he's really on. Last year he averaged 25.6 PPG over the last 5 weeks and was an absolute league winner if you traded for him midseason, because you likely didn't make it that far if you drafted him, as before those 5 games, his PPG was in the Aaron Jones/Rico Dowdle RB20 territory.

11. Kenneth Walker, frustrating for almost the exact opposite reason as Taylor we have Walker. I can't recall the last time I saw a RB have to work as hard to gain yards as he did last season. He shattered the record for avoided tackles per carry (previously held by 2020 Nick Chubb) and still was under 4 yards per carry. That said, the offseason has gone well for him in my eyes. Some blocking upgrades, an OC who is more run committed (especially under center runs where Walker averages half yard more per carry) and a QB change which I think leads to more need for the run game to lead the way. He's a target of mine.

12. Kyren Williams, he's been a top-5 RB in PPG over the last 2 years, but I thought he really took a step back last season. Sean McVay has tended to be a bell cow believer, but he's also had a notoriously complex to pick up offense for rookies (Puka being the exception) so I could see Corum being more involved if Kyren's effectiveness doesn't bounce back. On the flip side, Kyren is tied for the most TDs over the last 2 seasons and has averaged over 20 carries per game since becoming the starter. He doesn't add much as a receiver, even though that's more a usage issue than skill issue in my opinion.

13. Chase Brown, personally, I wasn't super impressed by his play last season, I thought he was just ok, but his role was as good as anyone's. From week 8 until his injury, he saw literally all but 5 RB touches. That's obviously not even going to come remotely close to happening again, for any RB, let alone Brown. Now, to Brown's credit he was RB3 during that stretch (I don't think he's in any danger of losing the starting job) and the Bengals did traditionally give Mixon 70% of the work, so its not like they are opposed to a clear #1. I just think losing 25% or so of the work (on a team with a bad OL to boot) drops him from RB3 to RB13 in my eyes.

Tier 4:
14. Alvin Kamara, Kamara is a conundrum for me. I think he's been a middling player since Brees retired, but one who also has been more relied upon, so that hasn't mattered for fantasy. Over the last 3 years he has more catches than any RB, and is 10th in carries, despite several missed games. Kamara hasn't had a run over 30 yards in those 3 years. I also am mildly concerned about the Kellen Moore hire. Moore's offenses have never really thrown to the RB, and both Barkley and Ekeler had career low pass game usage with Moore calling the plays. I do think Kamara will benefit from garbage time (NO is a strong #1 overall pick candidate) and some late game TDs. He's also one of the last RBs where I think his 3-down role is completely unquestionable.

15. James Cook, Cook took a step forward last year, but you wouldn't know it by his usage. He actually saw 42 fewer touches and had 300 fewer yards than in 2023. Cook played under 50% of the snaps last year, as both Ray Davis and Ty Johnson were pretty involved in the offense. I wonder if that is sticky or not. The Bills had 7 wins by double digit points last year, would Cook have played much more if they had more competitive weeks? He's clearly a good RB, but he's a bit TD dependent and this boom/bust.

 

[travdogg]

16. Omarion Hampton, I'm not all that worried about Najee Harris. He's been a mediocre starter, and his contract was pretty on par with a guy like Devin Singletary a year ago. He's more insurance than a threat in my opinion. I'm expecting Hampton to see over 50% week 1 and increase as the year goes on. There also could be room for both, as Roman offenses have typically been top-3 in rush attempts throughout his tenure. The Chargers quietly might have the best OL in the AFC.

Tier 5:
17. James Conner, Conner has pretty consistently around RB15 PPG since Gannon took over, and Arizona is running out pretty much the exact same lineup as last season. However, there is some shot Trey Benson earns a bigger share of the pie than anyone else has the previous 2 seasons. Of note, only Jalen Hurts and Josh Jacobs had more carries from the 1 last season.

18. Chuba Hubbard, while I don't think Hubbard is any danger of losing his starting job (especially after his extension last season) I do think his workload gets a little smaller given the Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne additions, especially as Hubbard was woeful in the pass game last season, with only 4 pards per catch, which was the lowest of any player with 40 catches in NFL history. Still, Hubbard was RB13 PPG last year, and Carolina has a solid OL, and is unlikely to stray from protecting Bryce Young with the run game when they can.

19. RJ Harvey, I thought Harvey was a reach in the NFL draft by about a round, but having said that, this is a very nice situation. I think Denver has an excellent playcaller, and a very good OL, I think their running issues were the fault of the RBs. Denver also has completed more passes to the RB position than any team in the NFL since Payton came aboard. That's likely to be Harvey and not Dobbins. I expect a somewhat similar split as to the Chargers where the rookie pulls away as the season goes on.

Tier 6:
20. Joe Mixon, he's typically been around RB10 PPG throughout his career, and last year was no different. I am mildly concerned about his durability (as he's seemingly already banged up) and I think a new OC might be either more pass heavy or want to incorporate a 2nd RB (Chubb?) more often.

21. D'Andre Swift, I've never been impressed by Swift. I think he's a 3rd down RB, who has been overused throughout his career. A a Bears fan, I was upset when they signed him and am upset they didn't draft a Skattebo or Sampson to push him. Oddly Swift was pulled on most 3rd downs last year (negating his best asset) but I expect Ben Johnson not to screw that up, as Swift had his most effective (though also fewest touch) season with Johnson. He's a bet on workload and lack of competition. High floor RB2/3.

22. Breece Hall, similar in many ways to Jonathan Taylor, tried WAY too hard to hit big plays last season. I have a lot of concerns about Hall. I think Fields addition ensures that Hall's 2023 reception totals remain an outlier, and I wouldn't be shocked if Fields cut into the rush TDs as well. I also think Braelon Allen is a pretty good prospect himself. He's especially better than Hall in short yardage. Allen went 11 for 12 when the Jets need a yard last year, Hall went 5 for 11.

23. Quinshon Judkins, I felt he was over drafted, and long-term might not even be the Browns best RB from this class, though he'll obviously get 1st crack. The Browns OL was among the NFL's best 2-3 years ago, but its pretty rough now. Judkins is nice tackle breaker, but he's not much of a receiver or big play guy. I also wonder what the Browns offense looks like. Probably depends on who is playing QB that week, and its possible (likely?) everyone gets a turn. Honestly, given ADPs, I'm much more likely to draft most tier 7 guys than tier 6 ones.

Tier 7:
24. Aaron Jones, RB19 last year, and I think could potentially lose 75 carries off last year. However the Vikings OL upgrades and les usage should increase Jones effectiveness. I expect Jones to maintain a stranglehold on the 3rd down role, which keeps him ahead of Mason for me, as the GL is less certain.

25. Tony Pollard, an underrated RB in my opinion. The Titans made some OL upgrades, and if Cam Ward hits the ground running, this will be too low. Quietly has been the NFL's 3rd best RB in short yardage conversion % the last 2 seasons. Tyjae Spears is also a solid RB, but has had concussion issues, and seems more suited to a 3rd down role.

26. David Montgomery, has been very TD dependent and is no lock to get that work with a new OC. Has a TD in 75% of his games the last 2 seasons, which is wild. Offense is likely to take a step back, and I think nobody gets affected more by that than Monty, its also possible Gibbs dusts him. Does have top-5 upside should something happen to Gibbs though.

27. Brian Robinson, he's been streaky but has shown ability. Was RB14 before getting hurt in October. Was RB28 PPG, so this ranking feels more in line with overall picture, but he could easily exceed this if the TDs start rolling. OL looks much improved. Ekeler obviously has the 3rd down job on lock, and maybe Deebo sneaks a few rush scores, but I like Robinson a lot as an RB3.

28. Isiah Pacheco, KC's offense feels likely to rebound to me, and its possible Pacheco goes with it. He was a top-10 RB down the stretch in 2023. I think Kareem Hunt is just an insurance option and actually think Elijah Mitchell is the bigger threat to Pacheco but fully expect Pacheco to get a clear shot at being the guy. He's a weird RB in that he has great measurables but runs like a guy who doesn't. I think that and the team he's on, have led to too high of expectations for him.

29. Jordan Mason, was RB6 through week 5 last season, and I think he offers more explosiveness than Jones. This projects as a 50-50ish backfield to me. Mason is one of my favorite RB targets. I think SF will regret giving him up if CMC goes down again.

30. Jaylen Warren, I might be being too paranoid about Kaleb Johnson. I've long been a Warren fan, and I think in a better offense he could be Chargers era Ekeler. He's a good runner and an elite receiver. He's been on a the RB2/3 border when healthy while splitting with Najee, the question is Najee>Johnson, I don't have a strong opinion on that one, I'd say probably not if pressed. Its possible given the dearth of WR talent on this team that both Johnson and Warren could have 225+ touches. When in doubt, I prefer the one who catches passes.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. CeeDee Lamb, this might be my most controversial pick, but I think we simply need to look back a season to see what Lamb can do. Last year, Lamb lost his QB, and was playing hurt for half the season, on a team with no other weapons (Lamb faced the most double teams in the NFL) and even with all that, he was WR7 PPG. He's still WR1 PPG over the last 2 seasons, and Dak should be better than he was last year (the worst he's ever played) I think Lamb has 200 target upside, with fewer doubles thanks to the Pickens trade. He's also been sneaking in 100-1 or so per year as a rusher. I expect to have Lamb on my team a lot.

2. Justin Jefferson, he's the most complete WR in the NFL, ranking in the top-5 in YPRR in both zone and man coverage, both outside and in the slot. He's averaged just under 97 YPG in his career, which is the most in history of guys with at least 400 catches, and by about 10 YPG. He's off to a similar start of sorts to his initials mate Julio Jones. Like Jones, Jefferson hasn't been quite as good at getting in the endzone, with a career high of 10 last season, but he's got the highest floor at the position in my opinion. I'm a big JJ McCarthy guy, and think he could potentially be the best QB Jefferson has had as a pro. Of note, Jefferson averaged about 3 more PPG with Cousins than without, I think that is less about target competition and more about his QBs.

3. Ja'Marr Chase, I'll probably be the only guy who doesn't have Chase #1, and while I'm not opposed to it, I do think some recency bias is at play. I think regression hits, particularly on big plays. Chase had 17 TDs last season, and 9 of them were from 30+ yards out, that's awesome, but always unsustainable. Not that Chase is gonna fall off a cliff by any means, but as I said in the Burrow blurb, the Bengals had the 20th most passes in NFL history, that's almost a lock to come down.

4. Nico Collins, the WR3 PPG, he's #1 in the NFL the last 2 years in YPRR, and fantasy points per route, the problem is, he needs more routes. Some of that is staying healthy, and some of that is just odd WR usage in Houston. Hopefully the new OC Caley immediately shelves the odd WR rotation the Texans have had. Caley came from the Rams, where he (in theory) learned a thing or 2 about getting the ball in your best WRs hands as often as possible. Nico has #1 overall upside, he just needs more work, which is very possible. Among WRs who were top-10 PPG, only Mike Evans had fewer weekly catches. Collins at his best, looks a lot like Terrell Owens to me.

5. Puka Nacua, its possible this ends up being too low. Puka has the highest target per route rate of any WR since they began keeping the stat in 2006, and his 2024 YPRR was 3rd best of the last 20 years, behind only Tyreek in 2023, and Steve Smith in 2008. Puka has been nothing but elite through 2 seasons, and is shaping up as an Antonio Brown level draft steal for the Rams. Nacua's only issue is the TDs haven't been there yet. Only 10 TDs in his career so far, and that may not change with Davante Adams (who excels in that area) being added.

6. Brian Thomas, he was the WR3 over the last 7 games of last season, doubly impressive as that was with Mac Jones at QB. Personally, I'm not concerned that happened without Lawrence. I think it just coincided with Thomas being given the true #1 role once Kirk went down. New HC Liam Coen has said Thomas is likely to spend lots of time in the slot, which is notable as Thomas had the highest YPRR of any WR in the slot last season, and we saw what Chris Godwin was doing in the slot before he got hurt in Coen's offense. Coen was also on the Rams staff when Cooper Kupp was ripping it up in the slot too. I'm a big Travis Hunter fan, but I think he's just as likely to help as hurt Thomas.

Tier 2:
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, he has the best hands in the NFL in my opinion. He's maybe my favorite player to watch in the NFL. Back in 2022 I called him the new Hines Ward, and frankly 3 years later I can say, he's better than Ward ever was. Having said all that, he feels likely to regress numbers wise. The Lions offense lost Ben Johnson, and Amon-Ra saw his fewest targets in the last 3 years last year, and that seems sticky as its more about Williams/LaPorta earning bigger roles. Amon-Ra got helped along by unsustainable efficiency (82% catch rate, 2nd best in history of guys with 100+ targets) and a career high 12 TDs which also feels likely to fall back. Not that Amon-Ra is a bad pick, he's still a star, he's just more a star who I think should be going in round 2.

8. Drake London, one of the toughest ranks for me. I've always been a huge fan of his, and he really had your classic year 3 breakout. The issue is, how much weight do we give to the 3 Penix starts? When Cousins was the QB, London was WR20, in those 3 Penix games, London was WR2. Also of note, Mooney missed London's biggest game in week 18. At the end of the day, I see an ascending player, and I'm willing to split the difference.

9. Malik Nabers, led the league with 11 targets per game last season. That feels unlikely to stay the course with Russell Wilson who has never featured a single WR even close to that often. However, that may also be offset, by Wilson's still great deep ball, something that wasn't really part of the offense last year. If Jameis gets in, its probably the best-case scenario for Nabers (I feel Dart will be more similar to Wilson) but he also seems like the QB they'd least want to be starting. Like the player, but the QB situation and general team give me enough pause to prefer 8 other WRs.

Tier 3:
10. AJ Brown, I think he's arguably the best WR in the NFL and has just had the bad luck of being on run heavy teams throughout his career. With his size/speed, I don't think there is a harder 1-1 coverage WR in the league. Unfortunately, some weeks the pass game pie leaves him out. Its possible a new OC will lead to more passing, but that's very speculative, and not something to bank on. He's WR8 PPG since joining the Eagles, and that's a reasonable expectation, its just harder to see the ceiling without a drastic change in play calling.

11. Tee Higgins, the WR6 in PPG last season, Higgins sees a lot more single coverage than a player of his caliber should, and that led to a career high in target share and TDs last season. That feels sticky to me as long as his health cooperates. He's had recurring lower body issues throughout his career, and I wonder if that is size related as he's kind of lanky. This feels like a hedge ranking between injuries, and possible pass game regression, as well as factoring in contingent upside should Chase go down.

12. Garrett Wilson, on the 1 hand, the new OC comes from Detroit who has been very good about scheming touches to 1 WR, and new QB Justin Fields has been good about getting the ball to his top guy (see 2023 DJ Moore) to me coaching and QB changes are sideways moves at worst. On the other hand, just how good is Wilson? He's made some incredible catches, but he's an inconsistent player. I think people were hoping he'd be a stud, but he might just be a pretty good WR (kind of like DJ Moore again) ultimately, I think he'll be his usual target monster self where he'll carry the pass game but fall short on TDs. He was WR17 in PPG last year but would have been top-10 had Adams not been added. He's a guy I'm targeting.

13. Ladd McConkey, put up WR2 overall numbers in his last 8 games (counting the playoffs) and interestingly had a higher YPRR outside than in the slot, which should lead to more outside (and downfield) targets. I think McConkey has more target competition than Wilson (though clearly better QB play) and that's what edges Wilson higher for me. I think McConkey is likely a better talent. Of note, only 3 WRs have averaged a higher yards per target as a rookie than McConkey did, Randy Moss, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase. If only he were in an offense as pass heavy as those guys were.

Tier 4:
14. Mike Evans, its kinda wild to think about, but he's been a better WR without Tom Brady than he was with him. I think that's because Brady was more of a process guy, and Mayfield is more of a gunslinger. Evans has been the best TD WR in the league on a per game basis since Brady retired, averaging almost 4 for every 5 games. I do feel like his YPC fell a bit as he was needed more in the short game late in the year without Godwin, but now Godwin is back, and Egbuka adds that dimension as well. I think we could see a return of 15+ YPC Evans, he's shown zero indication he's slowing down. I think Mayfield's production will come down some, but I don't think its likely to be from Evans.

15. Terry McLaurin, what a difference a QB makes. McLaurin didn't suddenly start playing better, he just had a better passer. In particular, a passer who isn't afraid to throw contested 1-1s. 9 of McLaurin's 13 TDs came on contested catches (easily led the league) and I'm not sure that's fluky or just a sign of things to come. The skill set has always been there, I think he maybe just needed an aggressive passer.

 

[travdogg]

16. Rashee Rice, in super small sample size theater, Rice was the WR2 thru 3 weeks last season, and this offense has obviously supported elite pass catchers before. That said, I do worry this offense may be a little crowded for Rice to be as busy as he was those 1st 3 weeks, and he could be less effective post knee injury. Rice/Worthy/Hollywood never played a single game together last season. Worthy is undoubtably better now than he was those 1st 3 weeks, and Hollywood isn't nothing, also Kelce will still be involved. He's also a knucklehead, and more likely to have off field trouble than maybe anyone on the list. I like the player, but I imagine someone in every draft will like him slightly more than I do.

17. Marvin Harrison, I remember when a 62-885-8 rookie season for a WR was cause for celebration and not concern. Alas, Harrison (who played well last season) was a victim of expectations. People wanted instant Larry Fitzgerald and instead got just a good rookie season. In Harrison's defense he had the most uncatchable targets of any WR in the NFL, which is kind of wild considering he was outside the top-20 in targets. Historically, that isn't a sticky stat, and the Cards top priority this offseason should be getting more out of the guy they drafted #4 overall. Having said that, Trey McBride feels pretty locked in as the #1 in that passing game.

Tier 5:
18. Davante Adams, it will be interesting to see how much he gets featured, given Puka is the NFL's target monster, and Adams has been that guy in the past. I feel like Adams likely takes a backseat to Puka except in the redzone. Chase/Higgins, Brown/Smith, and Hill/Waddle have all been combos of late where both guys were top-20, so its doable. Adams has maybe lost a step, but he's still a great WR, who may see the most favorable coverage he's seen since what, 2016?

19. Tyreek Hill, I don't wanna write Hill off by any means, but last year was a really big step back. How much was the wrist injury? How much was coverage? How much was age? Of note, his pace with Tua was 90-1139-10, which well below his 2022-2023, would have been high-end WR2 numbers.

20. DJ Moore, believe it or not, assuming Caleb stays healthy, this will actually be the 1st season in Moore's 8-year career, he'll have the same starting QB 2 years in a row. I've seen people talk about there being a crowded room of pass catchers in Chicago, and I don't really see it. Maybe long-term it will be, but in 2025, I think Moore is the clear cut #1 and shouldn't struggle to be a WR2. I think if anyone slots into that Amon-Ra role in Ben Johnson's offense, it'll be Moore. Of note, Moore had 58 catches in his last 8 games after Waldron was fired. We know he's capable of that level of target share.

21. Jameson Williams, while the efficiency is likely to come down, I do wonder if they try to get him the ball more. He led the NFL in YAC average and is as dangerous after the catch as anyone. He was WR24 PPG last season, and I think he's still an ascendent player. All the offseason talk has been about him taking the next step, I'm inclined to believe it a little bit, even if the big plays shrink. Also has contingent upside should Amon-Ra or LaPorta go down.

22. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I think nobody is affected more by offseason change in all of fantasy than JSN is. I think he got an OC downgrade (for his role) a QB downgrade, and I think losing DK hurts too. Kubiak's offenses have been traditional WR's downfield, TE's and RB's short. Lots of 2-TE sets and little slot usage. Adding Kupp also raises questions. Is JSN gonna play outside? That would make the most sense I think, but he's never really done it going back to Ohio State. I highly doubt I'll have a share of him.

23. Travis Hunter, I thought he was a better CB prospect than WR prospect, but he's elite at either. I'm not expecting that much CB play, like your average dime CB levels. I'd put the over/under at 300 snaps. As a WR, I thought Hunter looked a lot like a young Odell Beckham, with spectacular catches, deep speed, and playing bigger than his size. Liam Coen didn't seem to have trouble balancing Godwin/Evans, and I think in time this could be a similar caliber duo. For this year, I think Hunter takes a back seat to Thomas, but I'm fully expecting it to be a 2-person passing game. As with a few other guys, Hunter has contingent upside if something happens to Thomas.

24. Tetairoa McMillan, HC Dave Canales has previously coached other tall WRs in Mike Evans and DK Metcalf, and McMillan could be on that level (not that that's an equal level Evans>>>DK) there isn't major target competition, and learning from Adam Thielen is a huge bonus (Justin Jefferson has credited Thielen with being a major part of his development) and if Bryce Young takes another step forward, WR2 production is very much in play.

Tier 6:
25. Jaylen Waddle, I think he benefits more than anyone from the Jonnu trade. Waddle is one of the best RAC WRs in the NFL, and wins at every level, he's just been underused, and to be fair also banged up a lot. Still, I wonder if the role he had in his rookie season, when he had 104 catches, might be in the cards. He was WR13 and WR21, before falling to WR40 (in Tua games) last season. Another guy where there is contingent upside should Hill go down. I think he's undervalued, both in redraft and dynasty.

26. DeVonta Smith, like Brown, he's a better NFL WR than fantasy WR. Just needs more targets. His effectiveness went up playing more slot last season, likely but not certain that continues with Kellen Moore gone. He's been no lower than WR20 in PPG since Brown showed up, but its been very helped along by injuries to others. He averaged 24 more YPG when either Brown or Goedert have been out. Ideal WR3.

27. Chris Olave, Kellen Moore is a nice addition, and they should be playing from behind a ton. Olave is a VERY underrated WR in my opinion. 9th in YPRR since 2022. The concussions are worrying but are factored into his price. I'm more worried about Shaheed's knee injury. I expect Olave to play the slot which is where Allen/Lamb/Smith have played for Moore the last 3 seasons. Olave has been a WR2 when healthy. He's a WR4 target.

28. Zay Flowers, really good RAC WR, who sometimes just falls out of the offense. Plays better in the slot than outside but doesn't get as many chances as you'd like given 2-TE sets. Was WR32 PPG last season, and that feels like a fair expectation, though its possible TDs are spread better as Andrews/Bateman had 20 of 41.

29. Xavier Worthy, was WR8 PPG over his last 7 games (counting playoffs) that is highly unlikely given Rice's return, but its notable. He's got that contingent upside should Rice go down, but most likely they (and Hollywood/Kelce) prevent each other from being top #1 WRs, unless Mahomes gets back to being a QB1 overall candidate, which isn't impossible, but feels unlikely. I do wonder if he sees some snaps in the backfield as they were doing that before Rice went down.

 

[travdogg]

Tier 7:
30. Chris Godwin, the WR2 overall before a nasty ankle injury, he's since seen his OC leave and his team draft a similar type WR in round 1. That's enough for me to consider Godwin no better than a WR3, but one who does have a solid floor as a trusted veteran option for a veteran QB.

31. Courtland Sutton, after having 14 TDs in 4 years (not counting 2020 where he played 1 game) before Sean Payton arrived, he's had 18 TDs the last 2 seasons. Maybe I'm being stubborn, but he's just not a guy I get excited about at all. He was WR27 PPG last season. Of note over his last 10 games his pace was 102-1367-10. That feels unsustainable though, as I expect Denver to run much better this season, and its possible another Denver WR breaks out.

32. Deebo Samuel, I don't think he's washed at all, I think people are VASTLY underrating the effect pneumonia has, it'd be much easier playing through something like a high ankle sprain or turf toe (2 injuries known for stifling effectiveness) than pneumonia. Despite that Deebo was still the king of breaking tackles for WRs. Now he's going to a team that ran a ton of screens and crossers, but were running them to guys named Zaccheaus and Brown (Noah and Dyami) Deebo is light years ahead of those guys. I do wonder if Deebo sees backfield snaps, but if he doesn't WR3 value is still doable. Another guy with some contingent upside.

33. DK Metcalf, this just feels like a recipe for disappointment to me. DK isn't the precise route-runner that Rodgers likes, and Arthur Smith is about as non-WR friendly as it gets. Both AJ Brown and Drake London had major production jumps once they weren't saddled with him. George Pickens also went down last season. DK was WR11 before hurting his knee against Atlanta, but that feels unattainable in this offense. DK is a good (though not great) WR, but I'm expecting his numbers to be pretty close to what Pickens was. If you are an optimist, you can look at Christian Watson's numbers down the stretch with Rodgers in 2022, and hope for that, though I don't think Rodgers is anywhere near that good anymore. Truthfully, I think the Steelers downgraded at QB.

34. Jakobi Meyers, it feels like he should be higher, but the more I thought about I almost put him in tier 8. The Raiders were 4th in the NFL in pass attempts last year, and that feels extremely unlikely to come close to happening again, and the Raiders have given us multiple reasons to think so, from bringing in Pete Carroll, to Chip Kelly, to spending the #6 pick on Ashton Jeanty. This team wants to be a run first team. That hurts Meyers more than anyone. Meyers was WR20 PPG last season, and that feels like an absolute ceiling, even with the giant QB upgrade. I also think Jack Bech is a bigger threat than any of the 2024 WRs were.

35. Jordan Addison, while he's been a top-24 WR each of his 1st 2 seasons, I think he's overrated. In addition to a possible suspension, he's also extremely boom/bust, TD dependent, and has benefitted from large stretches of time where Justin Jefferson or TJ Hockenson wasn't playing. Of note, the only 2 other WRs to start their career with 10+ TDs their 1st seasons are Randy Moss and Odell Beckham, but that feels just like a fun stat, rather than meaning something about Addison.

Tier 8:
36. Jerry Jeudy, WR2 with Jameis Winston, WR56 with Watson. The Browns led the NFL in pass attempts last season, and I feel comfortable saying they'd prefer that never happens again. Jeudy has often been miscast as a slot WR (I think he's better outside) and I think he'll likely be in the slot again given the healthy return of Cedric Tillman, and maybe a possible rehabilitation of Diontae Johnson. Its worth noting that Jeudy's blowup came almost entirely while Tillman was out too. My gut says all 4 QBs probably start for the Browns at some point. I'm confident someone will like Jeudy more than me, but he'll probably have a few nice weeks.

37. Jauan Jennings, screams fool's gold to me. He had 3 nice games and that was about it, and all of those 3 games were missing at least 2 of CMC/Kittle/Aiyuk. I think he's capable of producing in a pinch, but I think he's gonna be 3rd or lower in the pecking order most weeks. It wouldn't blow my mind if Ricky Pearsall was a threat by year's end either. If Aiyuk weren't expected to be PUP'd Jennings wouldn't be ranked.

38. George Pickens, I see him being more Michael Gallup than Amari Cooper. I expect some big plays here and there, but mostly keeping safeties deep, and giving room for Lamb underneath. Has some contingent value should Lamb go down.

39. Calvin Ridley, oddly had exactly 1 more yard with the Titans in 2024 than with the Jags in 2023. Was WR30 in the 2nd half of last season, but its been a little distressing that both the Jags and Titans have treated like an X WR and not really made an effort to get him catches. I don't see why that changes with Cam Ward on board.

40. Brandon Aiyuk, there's some risk here, ACL+MCL, likely PUP'd, and maybe a slow start when back. However, I think people are forgetting how awesome Aiyuk was in 2023. He's 1 of only 6 WRs to have a YPRR over 3 since 2015. Guys like Adams, AB, Hopkins, Chase, and Jefferson have never done it. He had 1342-7 and his biggest target competition from then is gone. He's easily the most talented WR on this team, he's relatively cheap, you just have to be patient. As a WR4/5 he's worth a flier, even if he's a zero for part of the season. If he wasn't looking likely to be PUP'd, I'd probably have him up by DJ Moore.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Trey McBride, extremely consistent as the clear #1 in Arizona. Averaged more catches per game than anyone except Chase, Nabers, and Nacua last season. He's been extremely unlucky in the TD department, with only 6 TDs the last 2 seasons, that feels really fluky though, as its not from lack of looks. He could easily catch 8-9 TDs with absolutely nothing about his usage changing. I like him a lot when when he makes it to round 3.

2. Brock Bowers, he's probably a better talent than McBride, but I think his situation is worse. The Raiders are switching to a run heavy offense, and Chip Kelly TEs have been a very mixed bag, non were as talented as Bowers, but Ertz took off once Kelly was out of Philly. I'm not saying Bowers is gonna fall apart, these are just things that move him behind McBride for me and maybe make me prefer Kittle at cost. Of note, like McBride, Bowers had bad TD luck last year, with all 5 of his TDs coming from over 10 yards, despite 8 endzone targets, McBride was 2 of 13.

3. George Kittle, the best TE in the NFL in my opinion (and I'd argue that's been true for years, yes better than Kelce, just less stats) since his 2018 breakout Kittle has been no lower than TE6 PPG. He's had a notable spike since Purdy took over, particularly with back-to-back career highs in yards per target, and over 2 YPC higher than any other TE. His pace numbers since Purdy took over are 78-1156-10. His splits with/without Deebo are also pretty impressive. In non-PPR, I think an easy argument can be made for Kittle #1, tougher in PPR and half PPR, where he's likely giving up at least 25 catches to McBride/Bowers. Ideally, I think its a good idea to end up with one of these top-3 TEs.

Tier 2:
4. TJ Hockenson, a top-6 PPG TE from 2020-2023, he fell to TE16 last season coming back from his ACL+MCL tear. Worth noting that JJ McCarthy had no issues targeting the TE position in college (helped it was Colston Loveland) its possible I'll be wrong on this, but you probably guessed it from my Addison ranking, I think Hockenson and not Addison is the #2 pass catcher on this team when healthy.

5. Sam LaPorta, I'm a little less confident in LaPorta v Williams than I am in Hockenson v Addison. I'm also a little concerned that Ben Johnson did a lot to get LaPorta open, especially on long TDs (2 flea flickers, come on) I'm not forgetting he had 86 catches and 10 TDs in 2023, but that feels like a tough number to get back to now that Jameson Williams is a thing. I'm open to be wrong about who the Lions #2 is, so I'm keeping LaPorta in my top-5, even if I'm very unlikely to draft him.

6. David Njoku, a RAC weapon who is schemed touches, Njoku is 4th in PPG over the last 2 seasons. Like everyone else in Cleveland, he'll be glad Watson isn't starting, as he was TE18 in Watson games.

Tier 3:
7. Dalton Kincaid, possible hot take, I think we may have just been a year early on Kincaid. From everything I've read, he should have gone on IR from his knee injury, but instead only missed a few games and was a shell of himself when he came back. Its a risk, but the path to being the #1 in Buffalo is still very open, and Kincaid had some bad luck where he had some bad drops, and some big plays where Allen just barely missed him.

8. Tucker Kraft, had some crazy big plays after the catch last season, leading to a 14.1 YPC. Similar to Buffalo, the #1 role in Green Bay is wide open, although with a much worse QB (not a knock on Love, just compared to Allen) and like Kincaid, the fear is that his role just doesn't get any bigger.

9. Colston Loveland, sure reminds me on tape of another former Bears 1st round TE, Greg Olsen, hopefully they don't give Loveland away in a few years for a bag of footballs. Its possible I'm being too dismissive of Cole Kmet, but I think taking a TE in the top-10 is a message you plan to feature him, and we saw what Ben Johnson did with Sam LaPorta, who wasn't as good a prospect as Loveland was.

 

[travdogg]

Tier 4:
10. Travis Kelce, I thought I'd have him higher than this. On the one hand, I think he got complacent last year, he looked out of shape when the season started, and I think he probably wasn't alone for KC in coasting a bit, just expecting another championship. I could certainly see him bouncing back with a chip on his shoulder to go out with a bang so to speak. That said, he did nothing before Rice went down and was a non-factor in the Super Bowl. Still, he was TE6 PPG last season, and its possible his TDs bounce back a bit given more weapons for the defense to worry about, and his rapport with Mahomes. However, early best ball drafts haven't been giving discounts on his name value, as he's going ahead of Njoku pretty regularly, and on some occasions ahead of Hockenson. I'm pretty wishy-washy on Kelce overall, but not at his ADP.

11. Mark Andrews, otherworldly efficient in the TD department last season. 6 endzone targets, 6 TDs. Andrews is still a great player, but he's not seeing the volume he saw at his peak anymore, so he's more TD dependent than ever. His stretch run of 2024 (11 TDs in 13 games) is unsustainable, but leading the position in TDs is still realistic. He's still clearly Lamar's favorite target in clutch situations.

12. Tyler Warren, while the TE position in Indy hasn't really done much since that random 13-TD season from Eric Ebron in 2018, its worth noting that Dallas Goedert's 2 best seasons in Philly were when Shane Steichen was his OC, so maybe its been a personnel issue more than a scheme issue. There's absolutely a path for Warren to be the #1 pass catcher in Indy. QB is an obvious issue, though worth noting Daniel Jones has had success throwing to the short areas of the field, so it'd probably be preferable he won the job for Warren, and probably everyone else too. I do think Indy would be wise to use Warren much like the Browns use Njoku with lots of screens and shallow crosses to use his RAC ability.

Tier 5:
13. Evan Engram, he's not gonna be Jimmy Graham in Payton's offense, but its possible he's Jared Cook or Ben Watson who both cracked the top-10 in New Orleans. Engram isn't going to see anywhere near the workload he saw in 2023 when he had 114 catches. That said, his YPC could sky rocket with a change of scenery and better play calling. To be fair, it wouldn't be hard to top the 7.8 YPC he had last season. Engram is a guy I'm willing to let someone else draft.

14. Dallas Goedert, another vastly underused pass game weapon in Philly, he also benefits from contingent upside, as he was TE5 when either Brown or Smith was out, but TE15 otherwise. I don't imagine the new OC is gonna come to the conclusion they should start featuring Goedert.

15. Jonnu Smith, had him after Njoku in tier 2 before the trade to Pittsburgh. He had 41 more targets in Miami than he'd ever had before in his career, including 2 stints with Arthur Smith. I assume he'll be used a lot in the screen/crosser game, with an abundance of 2-TE sets, but I don't see that much ceiling in that, without the threats that Miami had keeping safeties deeper. I feel compelled to include him in the top-15, but that was just as much about not really finding anyone I liked more. I'll have 0 Jonnu shares.

 

[Anarchy99]

First, I don't say it often enough, GREAT job as always. You are a true asset to the boards and a huge contributor.

That being said . . . WOW! Look at all those Patriots players!

 

[wgoldsph]

Haven't read it yet, but I want to say I love that you do this list. Always well thought out and brings up a lot of great discussions.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

9. Malik Nabers, led the league with 11 targets per game last season. That feels unlikely to stay the course with Russell Wilson who has never featured a single WR even close to that often. However, that may also be offset, by Wilson's still great deep ball, something that wasn't really part of the offense last year. If Jameis gets in, its probably the best-case scenario for Nabers (I feel Dart will be more similar to Wilson) but he also seems like the QB they'd least want to be starting. Like the player, but the QB situation and general team give me enough pause to prefer 8 other WRs.

I think you’re spot on here - the seemingly persistent toe issue that they keep insisting isn’t an issue (yet keep mentioning) is also a concern. I do like the player a lot but I think your ranking is solid.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

First, I don't say it often enough, GREAT job as always. You are a true asset to the boards and a huge contributor.

Seconded. This was a great read. Don’t agree with everything but your process is excellent & your takes substantiated. Well done.

 

[wgoldsph]

Why no love for Shakir? Near identical numbers to Meyers and stickem for hands. He's never going to be a number one, but he doesn't need to be in order to be a useful wr3/flex.

Complaint about my guy out of the way... I gotta say all the previous compliments and ones to come are true. This is the kind of a article that is hidden behind a paywall 99% of the time. Legitimately a good read.

 

[FarFromHome]

Giddy up buddy. Thanks for posting. Great read.

 

[streamkeeper]

Thanks TDog. Your post pairs well with a cup of coffee.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Love reading your contributions, thanks for the read.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Awesome thread. Was thinking of doing this myself but instead of individual player write-ups, have more of a discussion about how I plan to approach them in drafts. Love your analysis and on the same page with a lot of it.

 

[need2know]

Good stuff man

 

[travdogg]

First, I don't say it often enough, GREAT job as always. You are a true asset to the boards and a huge contributor.

That being said . . . WOW! Look at all those Patriots players!

Thanks.

A lot of Patriots just missed, I think the issue for me was how split I expect the offense to be. Maye was in the 20 to 15 cutdown, Diggs was one of the last 3 WR cutdowns, I love Kyle Williams in keeper/dynasty, and Stevenson/Henderson were among the last 3 cuts at RB.

I think NE takes a step forward this year (though 2026 feels like the real step-up year) I think a jump to 8-9 is pretty within reason.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Great job!

I don’t expect major role changes in Philly. The new OC is from in-house and they’re not gonna deviate from the formula that worked so well last year until they have to.

 

[BassNBrew]

Glad to see Mahomes start at #6. If you drop him one slot a week he'll end up in the right spot.

Great read, much appreciated.

 

[travdogg]

Why no love for Shakir? Near identical numbers to Meyers and stickem for hands. He's never going to be a number one, but he doesn't need to be in order to be a useful wr3/flex.

Complaint about my guy out of the way... I gotta say all the previous compliments and ones to come are true. This is the kind of a article that is hidden behind a paywall 99% of the time. Legitimately a good read.

Thanks.

Shakir was in the cutdown from 50 to 40. I just don't think he has much upside. I would agree he and Meyers are similar talents, but I think Buffalo has more mouths to feed, and that Shakir isn't an every down player like Meyers is. Of note, Shakir averaged almost 20 more yards per game in Buffalo losses than wins. I think Buffalo is a Super Bowl favorite, so I'm not expecting many losses.

In many ways Shakir's usage was similar to Jayden Reed, where he's basically never on the field except in 3-wide sets. If that changes, he's too low.

 

[TripItUp]

Pickens being ranked closer to his floor than ceiling.

And I plan on taking advantage of that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Why no love for Shakir? Near identical numbers to Meyers and stickem for hands. He's never going to be a number one, but he doesn't need to be in order to be a useful wr3/flex.

Complaint about my guy out of the way... I gotta say all the previous compliments and ones to come are true. This is the kind of a article that is hidden behind a paywall 99% of the time. Legitimately a good read.

Thanks.

Shakir was in the cutdown from 50 to 40. I just don't think he has much upside. I would agree he and Meyers are similar talents, but I think Buffalo has more mouths to feed, and that Shakir isn't an every down player like Meyers is. Of note, Shakir averaged almost 20 more yards per game in Buffalo losses than wins. I think Buffalo is a Super Bowl favorite, so I'm not expecting many losses.

In many ways Shakir's usage was similar to Jayden Reed, where he's basically never on the field except in 3-wide sets. If that changes, he's too low.

I think it goes hand in glove with the “year too soon” on Kincaid as well. More Kincaid likely means less “other”. Plus I see some overlap between Shakir & Palmer.

I like Palmer in BUF as a RL fit/target for Allen, but I think the BUF WR all kinda diminish each other’s upside. It has a real “who’s Brady’s favorite WR” feel to it.

 

[houston]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

 

[elguapo07]

Trav, lots of excellent content in here. Your rankings and excerpts keep getting better. Keep it up.

 

[Gatorade]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Plus, no Dak now with two legit WRs and his TE healthy. Plus no running game.

 

[Gatorade]

Amazing write up. Thank you. Will have to take a deeper dive later.

 

[travdogg]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Herbert was my last QB omission, just felt Goff's weapons gave him the slight edge.

 

[wgoldsph]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Herbert was my last QB omission, just felt Goff's weapons gave him the slight edge.

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Thank you sir, for the excellent write up here. Much appreciated.

 

[TheWinz]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

 

[TheWinz]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns? Those were the numbers when he didn't run for 6 TDs in his full seasons you mentioned.

I think the QBs anywhere from 7 to 10 through around 20 are extremely close. Volume could prop Dak up, lack of running could move him near the bottom, or just being meh like last year. These QBs are pick your favorite flavor at the end of the day.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

I agree with this. There's almost no way he can keep those efficiency numbers up,

Couple of caveats, though.

1. I think the defense being good will help him with scoring opportunities. Maybe the RBs get the bulk of that advantage, but Jackson will get some of it either passing or running.

2. He's got the best receiving group he's ever had.

 

[wgoldsph]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns? Those were the numbers when he didn't run for 6 TDs in his full seasons you mentioned.

I think the QBs anywhere from 7 to 10 through around 20 are extremely close. Volume could prop Dak up, lack of running could move him near the bottom, or just being meh like last year. These QBs are pick your favorite flavor at the end of the day.

I doI don't why Dak can't get over 35 tds. Lamb is going to count for at least ten himself. They have literally nobody in the run game (Blue can not carry a full load as much as we want him to) and while the defense shouldn't be as bad as it was last year, it still will be in the bottom of the league. They're going to have to pass to stay in games.

That said, I do very much agree that after the top 5 there's a wiiiiiiide range of possibilities. I just prefer the passing upside of Dak as my qb2 as opposed to someone like Murray and his rushing upside.

 

[bluemanfoo]

I highly value upside and I love how these ranking boost high upside players like Kenneth Walker, RJ Harvey, Justin Fields, JJ McCarthy, Tucker Kraft, and even perhaps Dalton Kincaid.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Plus, no Dak now with two legit WRs and his TE healthy. Plus no running game.

FR

I’m doing a 12-team start-up dynasty on the 11th & compared to the 16-team start-up I did in 2023 it’s night and day - QB is so deep now it’s preposterous.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns?

yes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I highly value upside and I love how these ranking boost high upside players like Kenneth Walker, RJ Harvey, Justin Fields, JJ McCarthy, Tucker Kraft, and even perhaps Dalton Kincaid.

My startup next week is TEP+ (1 PPR, 2 PPR TE)

Kincaid & Hockenson are my two favorite mid-round TE targets.

I’d love to have McBride, but the price for him & Bowers is late 1st/early 2nd, and I don’t want to pass on a top tier WR or QB for them. Never say never, but doing some mocking I prefer to wait for the guys that folks have half given up on - maybe Likely a little later, too.

I’m definitely in on Kincaid at his current ADP. He’s going in the Ferguson - Schultz range, and that’s kind of crazy to me. Seems like an over-correction.

 

[TheWinz]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns? Those were the numbers when he didn't run for 6 TDs in his full seasons you mentioned.

I think the QBs anywhere from 7 to 10 through around 20 are extremely close. Volume could prop Dak up, lack of running could move him near the bottom, or just being meh like last year. These QBs are pick your favorite flavor at the end of the day.

Dak doesn't need anywhere near 36/37 TD's to be a top 15 fantasy QB. The QB's from #10 thru #15 had 20, 20, 21, 21, 23, and 26 passing TD's.

I disagree QB's 7 to 10 thru 20 are extremely close. Last year, QB7 scored 321.5 while QB20 scored 199.0. Even if you start from QB10, you get 303.2. That's a huge dropoff.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns? Those were the numbers when he didn't run for 6 TDs in his full seasons you mentioned.

I think the QBs anywhere from 7 to 10 through around 20 are extremely close. Volume could prop Dak up, lack of running could move him near the bottom, or just being meh like last year. These QBs are pick your favorite flavor at the end of the day.

Dak doesn't need anywhere near 36/37 TD's to be a top 15 fantasy QB. The QB's from #10 thru #15 had 20, 20, 21, 21, 23, and 26 passing TD's.

I disagree QB's 7 to 10 thru 20 are extremely close. Last year, QB7 scored 321.5 while QB20 scored 199.0. Even if you start from QB10, you get 303.2. That's a huge dropoff.

Of course they won’t finish that close but they’re all projected within about 30 points from each other. If you can see the future and tell us where they’ll all finish then go ahead and give us the answers.

 

[TheWinz]

What about Dak? Year removed from a top five qb season and he's got a better 2/3 than before.

In Dak's 6 full seasons, he has finished 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
The only way he should be kept outside the top 15 is injury.

Do you think he's still running for almost 300 yards and several touchdowns at age 32?

He doesn't need to. The last time he topped 3 rushing TD's was 7 years ago, and his lifetime best was a mere 357 yards. The last 3 times he finished top 10 he averaged 222/2. Yes, he had 6 rushing TD's in each of his first 3 seasons, but since then he has a grand total of 11 in 74 games.

Do you think he's throwing for 36 or 37 Touchdowns? Those were the numbers when he didn't run for 6 TDs in his full seasons you mentioned.

I think the QBs anywhere from 7 to 10 through around 20 are extremely close. Volume could prop Dak up, lack of running could move him near the bottom, or just being meh like last year. These QBs are pick your favorite flavor at the end of the day.

Dak doesn't need anywhere near 36/37 TD's to be a top 15 fantasy QB. The QB's from #10 thru #15 had 20, 20, 21, 21, 23, and 26 passing TD's.

I disagree QB's 7 to 10 thru 20 are extremely close. Last year, QB7 scored 321.5 while QB20 scored 199.0. Even if you start from QB10, you get 303.2. That's a huge dropoff.

Of course they won’t finish that close but they’re all projected within about 30 points from each other. If you can see the future and tell us where they’ll all finish then go ahead and give us the answers.

Dude, this whole thing started because I said Dak should finish as a top 15 QB if he plays a full season. Then you chimed in and asked if he can still rush for 300 yards and SEVERAL TD's at the age of 32. When I pointed out he has averaged 222/2 rushing while still finishing top 10, you immediately switched to passing TD's, and asked if he will throw for 36 or 37 TD's. When I told you he needs nowhere near that to be top 15, you totally ignore it, and instead focus on my last statement, which really isn't part of our discussion at all. How about you stop moving the goalposts and spit out some projections? I'll go first...
If Dak plays the entire season, he will have 4250 passing yards, 32 TD's, 200 rushing yards, 2 TD's, and that will put him at QB8.

 

[Desert_Power]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Herbert was my last QB omission, just felt Goff's weapons gave him the slight edge.

Feel like I might end up with a lot of Herbert if he is down there.

Love the Fields take. I think leaning into his running could be interesting.

 

[travdogg]

Great stuff!

Reminder of how deep QB is when Herbert and Love are nowhere to be found here.

Plus, no Dak now with two legit WRs and his TE healthy. Plus no running game.

I expected to have Dak around QB12 or so, but when I sat down and ran the numbers and started cutting guys down, I kept finding guys I'd rather have than Dak. One of my concerns for Dak, is at what point do we consider him injury prone? He's missed 26 games over the last 5 years, and I'm not confident that he sticks to this every other year thing he's had going since 2020. He looked out of shape last season.

I'm considering Dak to be more similar (but better) to somebody like Tua. Both are guys who likely exceed my ranking if they play 17 games, but I'm not feeling great about either. Now, I haven't downgraded Lamb for that possibility, because we've seen him still be a top guy without Dak, and I'm a fan of Joe Milton, being better than Rush anyway.

When I was cutting down from 20 to 15, I asked myself, do I prefer Dak or Goff? The answer was Goff, but if you could guarantee Dak plays 17 games, then I don't know.

 

[travdogg]

3. Lamar Jackson, he 100% should have been the NFL MVP last season, he had peak Rodgers efficacy, but with 900 rushing yards too. But fantasy wise, its likely he declines a bit. The 2 best fantasy QB seasons in the last 6 years belong to Jackson, there's really nowhere to go but down. A 41-4 TD/INT ratio is unsustainable, as is a TD pass on 8.6% of your passes. The Ravens also had a pretty awful defense for much of last season, but they figured it out late, and that should carry over to this season.

I agree with this. There's almost no way he can keep those efficiency numbers up,

Couple of caveats, though.

1. I think the defense being good will help him with scoring opportunities. Maybe the RBs get the bulk of that advantage, but Jackson will get some of it either passing or running.

2. He's got the best receiving group he's ever had.

Tier 1 is extremely tightly packed. I can make a case for any of them #1.

 

[Chaka]

Dude, you're a beast.

My best summer read to date.

 

[Tau837]

Always love your threads @travdogg . Really appreciate the effort you put in.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

For me, it ain't officially FF season until the Travdogg rankings go up.