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Travdogg's super early NFL mock draft (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
This is crazy early, so I'm just sticking with order of playoff seeding for the draft order. Also, since so many teams don't have coaches(or GMs in some cases) I stuck to more of a what I would do logic, than what I think will happen. I'm not a huge fan of this QB class at all, so I'm pretty much universally lower on them. I'm sure at least 3 guys will probably be 1st rounders, but I'm really only somewhat confident in 1 of them.  

1. Jax=Evan Neal OT Alabama...most important goal of new coach is helping Trevor Lawrence, nothing does that more than better blocking. 

2. Det=Aidan Hutchinson EDGE Michigan...local guy is probably the best overall player in the draft, and a perfect fit for Dan Campbell.

3. Hou=Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame...versatile playmaker in the Derwin James mold. Secondary is Texans greatest weakness.

4. NYJ=Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE Oregon...their lucky day, as some feel he should go #1. Best case, he's Saleh's new Nick Bosa.

5. NYG=Derek Stingley CB LSU...I know many will be screaming for OL help here, but I truly think its not as bad a need as it looks, and was hurt by awful coaching. Stingley adds a playmaker in the secondary, which will be key if they hope to catch Dallas. 

6. Car=George Karlaftis EDGE Purdue...versatile defender who can play all over. Adds to a frightening young front 4. 

7. NYG=Garrett Wilson WR Ohio St...I know, they just added Golladay and Toney last year, and extended Shepard(though he's unlikely to contribute much next season) but Wilson is more talented than any of them, and should give Jones a true #1.

8. Atl=Ikem Ekwonu OT NC State...Dominant run blocker, who can also play Guard, I think Arthur Smith would be thrilled to play a little more smashmouth.

9. Den=Trent McDuffie CB Washington...I don't see Denver dipping into the rookie QB pool. McDuffie could pair with Surtain to be the Broncos 1-2 at CB for years to come. 

10. NYJ=Charles Cross OT Miss St...adding more OL help for Wilson is a must, and Cross is a very experienced pass blocker. 

11. Was=Nakobe Dean LB Georgia...smaller LB, but flies around the field. Feels like a Rivera type, and gives them a ton of speed at the position with last year's #1 Jamin Davis. 

12. Min=Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati...dominant college CB with great size. Tough to know what the Vikings new staff will prefer in their CBs, but its their biggest need in my opinion.

13. Cle=Drake London WR USC...I've seen him compared to Brandon Marshall for his size and YAC ability. Had 88 catches in just 8 games this year, and profiles as exactly the type of WR Mayfield hasn't had. 

14. Bal=Kaiir Elam CB Florida...The Ravens secondary was the #1 reason they missed the playoffs this year(even more than Lamar getting hurt in my opinion) and while Humphrey and Peters should be back, the Ravens have always been a team unafraid to draft a guy, with a more long term plan in mind.

15. Phi=Treylon Burks WR Arkansas...yes, WR 3 years in a row is a very Millen-esq strategy, though with 3 1sts this year, its not really the same. I had Jameson Williams here before his injury, now I'm not even sure he'll declare. Burks gives them an option with size, who also separates unlike JJAW. 

16. Phi=Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa...He's a top 10, maybe top-5 player in this class in my opinion. I felt that way a few years back about Ragnow as well, but Centers simply don't go high. The Eagles care about OL probably more than any other team, and Kelce, while still elite, is also in his mid 30s. Brandon Brooks also may be a cap cut, after playing under 100 snaps the last 2 seasons, so perhaps Linderbaum could start as a Guard at first.

17. LAC=Andrew Booth CB Clemson...a bit of a gambler, but a huge playmaker. Could pair with Samuel as the 1-2 long term in a division where stopping the pass is paramount.

18. NO=Kenyon Green G Texas A&M...the interior of the OL has been pretty iffy of late, as Peat has been hurt and bad, and Ruiz has been a slight bust so far. Green has more talent than either, and the Saints seem like they are transitioning to a more run and play defense team.

 
19. Phi=Devin Lloyd LB Utah...the Eagles never take LBs in round 1, but with this being their 3rd pick, I think an exception can be made. Lloyd has zero holes in his game, and only a lack of elite speed keeps him out of the top-10 in my opinion. 

20. Pit=Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh...the Steelers forever regretted passing on the last 1st round Pitt QB they could have had(Marino) and have an even bigger need now. Pickett is a bit of a 1 year wonder, but so was Joe Burrow, Pickett was extremely consistent all season. this QB class has a lot of intriguing players, but nobody who is a sure thing. Pickett feels closest to me. 

21. NE=David Ojabo EDGE Michigan...a complete 1 year wonder, but he showed amazing pass rushing upside and that feels like something the Patriots always value. I see a lot of early mocks with WR here, and that just feels extremely unlikely. 

22. Mia=Jermiane Johnson EDGE Florida St...complete player, with a very high floor. Phillips was a disappointment in year 1, and Ogbah, though very good this year, has always been up and down. Never hurts to have more DL. 

23. LV=Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa...small school bully in the run game. Allows them to keep Leatherwood inside, where he's probably better suited.

24. Ari=Roger McCreary CB Auburn...average size and speed, but just sticks to WRs like glue. Cards need a guy like that a ton. 

25. Cin=Jordan Battle S Alabama...BPA, Battle has improved every year, and has a very well rounded game. Maybe not a year 1 starter, but likely a long term one. 

26. Buf=Zion Johnson G Boston College...Bills don't have much oin the way of holes, but the interior OL is a glaring one, this is probably a reach to fill a need pick, but those are sometimes not bad moves for top teams. Very high floor pick, who excels as a pass blocker fits Bills O to a tee.

27. Det=WR Jahan Dotson Penn St...I could see possibly taking a QB here(Corral perhaps) but Goff played well enough down the stretch to earn another year, as the team keeps rebuilding. Dotson is lightning fast and complements St.Brown and Hockenson well. 

28. Dal=Devonte Wyatt DL Georgia...late bloomer who is explosive off the ball, and is equally good against the run and the pass. I thought about Olave here, but felt addressing a need made more sense, than making a strong spot stronger. Also think Gallup could stay(1 year deal) due to his injury.

29. KC=Drake Jackson EDGE USC...Chiefs need a major injection of youth on the edge. Jackson is highly explosive, but probably isn't ready to be a full timer as a rookie. Sky high upside though.

30. TB=Chris Olave WR Ohio St...AB is gone, and who knows if/when Godwin will be back. Olave is a great route runner, with underrated speed. Size is a small issue, and he may be more of as floor than ceiling pick, but he's exactly what this offense needs. Thought about a QB here as an heir apparent pick, but not ready to write off Kyle Trask yet, and WR is suddenly a pretty big need. 

31. Ten=Kinsley Enagbare EDGE South Carolina...productive, high motor type, who fits the Vrabel mold. 

32. GB=Kyler Gordon CB Washington...good size and freakish athletic ability, he's likely a slight project but has as much upside as any CB short of Stingley. Of course, he's also a 1 year wonder, who bounced between outside and the slot. He's a similar, slightly better in my opinion, prospect to Stokes a year ago. Can never have too many CBs.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
This is crazy early, so I'm just sticking with order of playoff seeding for the draft order. Also, since so many teams don't have coaches(or GMs in some cases) I stuck to more of a what I would do logic, than what I think will happen. I'm not a huge fan of this QB class at all, so I'm pretty much universally lower on them. I'm sure at least 3 guys will probably be 1st rounders, but I'm really only somewhat confident in 1 of them.  

1. Jax=Evan Neal OT Alabama...most important goal of new coach is helping Trevor Lawrence, nothing does that more than better blocking. 

2. Det=Aidan Hutchinson EDGE Michigan...local guy is probably the best overall player in the draft, and a perfect fit for Dan Campbell.

3. Hou=Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame...versatile playmaker in the Derwin James mold. Secondary is Texans greatest weakness.

4. NYJ=Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE Oregon...their lucky day, as some feel he should go #1. Best case, he's Saleh's new Nick Bosa.

5. NYG=Derek Stingley CB LSU...I know many will be screaming for OL help here, but I truly think its not as bad a need as it looks, and was hurt by awful coaching. Stingley adds a playmaker in the secondary, which will be key if they hope to catch Dallas. 

6. Car=George Karlaftis EDGE Purdue...versatile defender who can play all over. Adds to a frightening young front 4. 

7. NYG=Garrett Wilson WR Ohio St...I know, they just added Golladay and Toney last year, and extended Shepard(though he's unlikely to contribute much next season) but Wilson is more talented than any of them, and should give Jones a true #1.

8. Atl=Ikem Ekwonu OT NC State...Dominant run blocker, who can also play Guard, I think Arthur Smith would be thrilled to play a little more smashmouth.

9. Den=Trent McDuffie CB Washington...I don't see Denver dipping into the rookie QB pool. McDuffie could pair with Surtain to be the Broncos 1-2 at CB for years to come. 

10. NYJ=Charles Cross OT Miss St...adding more OL help for Wilson is a must, and Cross is a very experienced pass blocker. 

11. Was=Nakobe Dean LB Georgia...smaller LB, but flies around the field. Feels like a Rivera type, and gives them a ton of speed at the position with last year's #1 Jamin Davis. 

12. Min=Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati...dominant college CB with great size. Tough to know what the Vikings new staff will prefer in their CBs, but its their biggest need in my opinion.

13. Cle=Drake London WR USC...I've seen him compared to Brandon Marshall for his size and YAC ability. Had 88 catches in just 8 games this year, and profiles as exactly the type of WR Mayfield hasn't had. 

14. Bal=Kaiir Elam CB Florida...The Ravens secondary was the #1 reason they missed the playoffs this year(even more than Lamar getting hurt in my opinion) and while Humphrey and Peters should be back, the Ravens have always been a team unafraid to draft a guy, with a more long term plan in mind.

15. Phi=Treylon Burks WR Arkansas...yes, WR 3 years in a row is a very Millen-esq strategy, though with 3 1sts this year, its not really the same. I had Jameson Williams here before his injury, now I'm not even sure he'll declare. Burks gives them an option with size, who also separates unlike JJAW. 

16. Phi=Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa...He's a top 10, maybe top-5 player in this class in my opinion. I felt that way a few years back about Ragnow as well, but Centers simply don't go high. The Eagles care about OL probably more than any other team, and Kelce, while still elite, is also in his mid 30s. Brandon Brooks also may be a cap cut, after playing under 100 snaps the last 2 seasons, so perhaps Linderbaum could start as a Guard at first.

17. LAC=Andrew Booth CB Clemson...a bit of a gambler, but a huge playmaker. Could pair with Samuel as the 1-2 long term in a division where stopping the pass is paramount.

18. NO=Kenyon Green G Texas A&M...the interior of the OL has been pretty iffy of late, as Peat has been hurt and bad, and Ruiz has been a slight bust so far. Green has more talent than either, and the Saints seem like they are transitioning to a more run and play defense team.

 
19. Phi=Devin Lloyd LB Utah...the Eagles never take LBs in round 1, but with this being their 3rd pick, I think an exception can be made. Lloyd has zero holes in his game, and only a lack of elite speed keeps him out of the top-10 in my opinion. 

20. Pit=Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh...the Steelers forever regretted passing on the last 1st round Pitt QB they could have had(Marino) and have an even bigger need now. Pickett is a bit of a 1 year wonder, but so was Joe Burrow, Pickett was extremely consistent all season. this QB class has a lot of intriguing players, but nobody who is a sure thing. Pickett feels closest to me. 

21. NE=David Ojabo EDGE Michigan...a complete 1 year wonder, but he showed amazing pass rushing upside and that feels like something the Patriots always value. I see a lot of early mocks with WR here, and that just feels extremely unlikely. 

22. Mia=Jermiane Johnson EDGE Florida St...complete player, with a very high floor. Phillips was a disappointment in year 1, and Ogbah, though very good this year, has always been up and down. Never hurts to have more DL. 

23. LV=Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa...small school bully in the run game. Allows them to keep Leatherwood inside, where he's probably better suited.

24. Ari=Roger McCreary CB Auburn...average size and speed, but just sticks to WRs like glue. Cards need a guy like that a ton. 

25. Cin=Jordan Battle S Alabama...BPA, Battle has improved every year, and has a very well rounded game. Maybe not a year 1 starter, but likely a long term one. 

26. Buf=Zion Johnson G Boston College...Bills don't have much oin the way of holes, but the interior OL is a glaring one, this is probably a reach to fill a need pick, but those are sometimes not bad moves for top teams. Very high floor pick, who excels as a pass blocker fits Bills O to a tee.

27. Det=WR Jahan Dotson Penn St...I could see possibly taking a QB here(Corral perhaps) but Goff played well enough down the stretch to earn another year, as the team keeps rebuilding. Dotson is lightning fast and complements St.Brown and Hockenson well. 

28. Dal=Devonte Wyatt DL Georgia...late bloomer who is explosive off the ball, and is equally good against the run and the pass. I thought about Olave here, but felt addressing a need made more sense, than making a strong spot stronger. Also think Gallup could stay(1 year deal) due to his injury.

29. KC=Drake Jackson EDGE USC...Chiefs need a major injection of youth on the edge. Jackson is highly explosive, but probably isn't ready to be a full timer as a rookie. Sky high upside though.

30. TB=Chris Olave WR Ohio St...AB is gone, and who knows if/when Godwin will be back. Olave is a great route runner, with underrated speed. Size is a small issue, and he may be more of as floor than ceiling pick, but he's exactly what this offense needs. Thought about a QB here as an heir apparent pick, but not ready to write off Kyle Trask yet, and WR is suddenly a pretty big need. 

31. Ten=Kinsley Enagbare EDGE South Carolina...productive, high motor type, who fits the Vrabel mold. 

32. GB=Kyler Gordon CB Washington...good size and freakish athletic ability, he's likely a slight project but has as much upside as any CB short of Stingley. Of course, he's also a 1 year wonder, who bounced between outside and the slot. He's a similar, slightly better in my opinion, prospect to Stokes a year ago. Can never have too many CBs.


Great read.

IMO Carolina is taking an offensive lineman.  They probably have the worst line in the league and need to give Darnold some protection.  After loading up on defense the last two years the either go offense or trade down.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Great read.

IMO Carolina is taking an offensive lineman.  They probably have the worst line in the league and need to give Darnold some protection.  After loading up on defense the last two years the either go offense or trade down.
Guard is a problem for sure, but if they can retain Paradis, I think Moton and Christiansen are a solid Tackle combo going forward. If Neal is there, I think he's a no brainer, but I'm a huge Neal fan(I'm probably the only guy mocking him #1) I think Linderbaum has the talent to be drafted that high, but other than Quentin Nelson(who was a freak of nature) its very rare an interior lineman goes top-10. Brandon Scherff is the only other one since 2013. 

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Guard is a problem for sure, but if they can retain Paradis, I think Moton and Christiansen are a solid Tackle combo going forward. If Neal is there, I think he's a no brainer, but I'm a huge Neal fan(I'm probably the only guy mocking him #1) I think Linderbaum has the talent to be drafted that high, but other than Quentin Nelson(who was a freak of nature) its very rare an interior lineman goes top-10. Brandon Scherff is the only other one since 2013. 


Ekwonu or Cross would be options.  Moton could move back to guard.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Ekwonu or Cross would be options.  Moton could move back to guard.
Moton is the highest paid player on the team, tough to justify moving him back to Guard. 

I'm thinking Guard might be more of a FA signing for them. Hopefully they'll aim higher than Elflein and Erving this year(it'd be hard to aim lower)

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Moton is the highest paid player on the team, tough to justify moving him back to Guard. 

I'm thinking Guard might be more of a FA signing for them. Hopefully they'll aim higher than Elflein and Erving this year(it'd be hard to aim lower)


Just keep in mind the Panthers don't have a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick.  That forces them to make the first a position of need and not BPA.  If they don't go OL with that pick, then Darnold or some rookie gets crushed next year.  I think they will be all in on Darnold being the guy if he gets protection.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
Thank you for putting in the work, nice read. I can't see the Giants taking a WR and a CB with picks 5 and 7. Maybe two O-linemen. Maybe trade both for deshaun? :scared:

seriously though, they need help along every avenue here, maybe trade both picks, drop down in the draft, acquire more and more picks and rebuild this thing entirely. There's a need for a RB Barkley can't last . They need TE, WR, QB, etc. the equity they can get in trade down would bring this team back from the dead fairly quickly. 

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Nice read. I think the Giants and the Jets might just switch the whole thing around, with the Jets maybe taking Stingley and Wilson, and the Giants drafting a rawer Thibodeaux (he might fall to five due to his rawness) and an offensive lineman. 

All the noise out of New York is that Giants will be taking an o-lineman with one of the picks, at least if the diehards who follow the team are to have their wishes become reality. The media constantly asked Gettleman about his failure to procure an offensive line, and he had no answers other than that product on the field. They don't need another WR with Golladay and Toney and Slayton signed through next year. They're probably not going a WR direction, if you want my humble opinion. 

The Jets might build from the back end on defense from what I've read. That Joe Douglas believes, like Belichick, that defense starts from the back. That wouldn't seem to be the vogueish organizational fit with Saleh being a D-Line coach at heart, but he was also a DC and will do what the defense needs. The Jets desperately need either an offensive lineman or receiver after that, and it wouldn't surprise if they took they almost surefire bet in Wilson, combine depending, and depending on Becton's health at LT and if they can resign Moses and Fant, who both were effective this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see them stay pat, really. But they will draft at least one defensive player. They just finished as one of the worst teams across two decades on defense, if you believe Tom Kislingbury's defensive reporting. 

Also disagree with the WAS pick. Davis didn't even start this year. Landon Collins made the transition to linebacker by the end of the year and was very effective, at least in stuffing the stat sheet, with Holcomb and Bostic hurt. If Holcomb, Bostic, Collins, and Davis all come back, they're probably not blowing another number one on a low-value position. They have other needs. Like that glaring one at QB that they might address in the early-mid-first. 

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
travdogg said:
3. Hou=Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame...versatile playmaker in the Derwin James mold. Secondary is Texans greatest weakness.

4. NYJ=Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE Oregon...their lucky day, as some feel he should go #1. Best case, he's Saleh's new Nick Bosa.
Good job. :thumbup:

Historically safeties are not taken this high, not even Derwin was taken this high in the draft but pass rushers are coveted.  Kayvon was consistently mocked first until Aiden blew up late in the year.  The Bama OT will be taken high and 'possibly' first overall, but it wouldn't surprise me if the pass rushers go off the board one-two.

 

Soulfly3

Footballguy
Hutch is a "fraud" imo, and was exposed when it mattered most - against top competition. I project he falls out of the top 5, and maybe even the top 10 (mabye a stretch). He'll be the "what the heck" of the draft.

Tibs goes #2 to the Lions.

Solid look tho. We'll see Hutch top 3 over and over... I just don't buy it

 
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Boston

Footballguy
Thanks for doing this...draft season has officially kicked off...as far as the Pats go, I don't have any issues with that pick (especially since the Pats need more athleticism on D) but I would quibble with the analysis...BB's first draft was 2000 with the Pats and the only "edge" player they have taken in the first round is Chandler Jones so that would be a little different as far as value goes...I would rather the Pats address WR in FA but it is absolutely right at the top of their list of needs so I would not say extremely unlikely...right now they are average at WR (and that is probably a stretch...actually it is) and Agholor only has a year left on his deal and I would be shocked if Harry comes back (what a bust)....Mac needs more weapons and if he doesn't get them it will hurt his development...overall I would say their biggest needs are:

WR-already discussed

LB-Aging (Hightower, Collins and Van Noy) and not very athletic...they really need help here in a big way if they are going to realistically stop QB's like Mahomes, Allen and Burrows in the future.

Secondary-If JC Jackson leaves CB vaults right to the top but even with him, they could use another legit CB...at Safety they have an emerging Duggar and Phillips just signed an extension but McCourty is not getting any younger.

O line-The Wynn experiment is not really working and while he is a beast Trent Brown is not known as Mr. Reliable so a tackle would not be a surprise as well.

Interior line-Barmore was a home run but the Pats are nothing special against the run and this position is always in play with BB.

 
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SoBeDad

Footballguy
Miami likes the potential of Phillips who had 10 sacks, some were cheap coverage sacks, as the guy has a motor and speed. He was rated poorly vs the run, maybe he bulks up a little using Tyler Herro's trainer.  I think they go offense in a draft deep with WR and IOL. Or maybe a QB if the new coach falls in love with one who drops, such as Willis, who's like the antonym of Tua. I think more than 1 QB goes in round 1.

 

Jayded

Footballguy
Texans and Notre Dame fan here, so clearly love Kyle going to Houston. Everyone seems to mock Houston with a DE but I agree with you more that if it’s defense I think they go DB - Hamilton or Stingley. 

That said, I think Houston needs weapons. Next year I think Mills has shown enough to give him another season to see if he’s the guy before they’d go QB early in 2023. I’d be very curious and interested to see Houston find a way to get one of these first round WE this year. The class is deep and thanks to BOB the team has to reload weapons on offense almost more than D and also to set up whomever becomes the next franchise QB with appropriate weapons. 

 

Buckna

RMT Beta Tester
Texans and Notre Dame fan here, so clearly love Kyle going to Houston. Everyone seems to mock Houston with a DE but I agree with you more that if it’s defense I think they go DB - Hamilton or Stingley. 

That said, I think Houston needs weapons. Next year I think Mills has shown enough to give him another season to see if he’s the guy before they’d go QB early in 2023. I’d be very curious and interested to see Houston find a way to get one of these first round WE this year. The class is deep and thanks to BOB the team has to reload weapons on offense almost more than D and also to set up whomever becomes the next franchise QB with appropriate weapons. 
Justin Reid is likely going to walk in FA after a falling out with the Texans terrible coaching staff so Safety is a big need for them. Corner is as well after trading away Roby at the beginning of the season. IMO the Texans don’t have a single NFL starter caliber corner on the roster so I could see them going that route with the only caveat being you don’t generally see DB’s get drafted that high. A trade down if it’s on the table would obviously be ideal for them.

As for WR and other needs like offensive line, all depends on what/when/if they trade Watson for. I think he will settle prior to the draft and get traded and they will come away with at least one 2022 1st rounder from some team as part of a trade. If so, WR very much in play for them as I think Cooks walks after 2022 as well.

 

TripleThreat

Footballguy
travdogg said:
22. Mia=Jermiane Johnson EDGE Florida St...complete player, with a very high floor. Phillips was a disappointment in year 1, and Ogbah, though very good this year, has always been up and down. Never hurts to have more DL. 


First I've read that Phillips was a disappointment.

 

Payne

Footballguy
Hutch is a "fraud" imo, and was exposed when it mattered most - against top competition. I project he falls out of the top 5, and maybe even the top 10 (mabye a stretch). He'll be the "what the heck" of the draft.

Tibs goes #2 to the Lions.

Solid look tho. We'll see Hutch top 3 over and over... I just don't buy it
Could not agree more. I hope the Lions pass on Hutchinson as well.

 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
First I've read that Phillips was a disappointment.
Pff grade of 53.7 for Phillips. One of the worst edge rushers vs the run. But 10 sacks, and #3 in QB pressures among rookies after Parsons and Odafe Odeh, who both had better seasons. The potential is there, I think he needs to get stronger.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
@travdogg

Totally unfair because I went straight to Phillips but that guy has largely been a Home Run as a rookie and one of the reasons Chris Grier even has a job. 8.5 sacks, 16 QB Hits, sure stats can be misleading but he was being praised mostly and especially when Miami was winning the 2nd half of the season. But he's a pass rush specialist all the way, don't see him dropping back into OLB duties in the flats. 

96th/113 on PFF so there's a lot more than raw sack totals that factor into all this. 

-Could Miami use another Edge rusher? What team couldn't but I want Miami to focus on their Offense, they need to continue to improve there. 

-Miami also hit a major Home Run on Jevon Holland and let's not also forget about Waddle at WR, they could be on a tear if they can keep it rolling with BPA, as long as it isn't a Cornerback, there's really not a position they couldn't use a fresh body. OL-they need 3 new starters,  need another strong WR(Tee Higgins didn't stop Cinci from taking Chase) Tight End is up in the air with Gesicki possibly leaving, DL is pretty strong right now if we retain Ogbah and Zach Sieler who ranks 4th out of 117 DL. Van Ginkel is going to need to be paid, I like him and wish they could keep him but they ponied up for Baker who was solid although not Pro Bowl level but he's pretty good. How many LBs do you need these days? I would argue 2 good ones because you mostly run Nickel even in many base formations. 

Appreciate you putting forth the effort, didn't mean to jump on just 1 player because I used to get fussy when folks would do it to me so i wanted to give you a lot more info than just "you're so wrong" 😆

Cheers!

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
Tanner9919 said:
Thank you for putting in the work, nice read. I can't see the Giants taking a WR and a CB with picks 5 and 7. Maybe two O-linemen. Maybe trade both for deshaun? :scared:

seriously though, they need help along every avenue here, maybe trade both picks, drop down in the draft, acquire more and more picks and rebuild this thing entirely. There's a need for a RB Barkley can't last . They need TE, WR, QB, etc. the equity they can get in trade down would bring this team back from the dead fairly quickly. 
I really think the OL isn't as bad as people think it is. I think Judge/Garrett/Kitchens did a horrible job play calling and asked the OL to do things most OLs couldn't do. Also they all seemed to love Nate Solder for whatever reason, even though he looks like a swing tackle these days. I thought Matt Peart looked solid when he was forced into the lineup and is a 24 year old former 3rd rounder. I think he and Thomas are a fine starting combo. I also thought despite his bust of a career coming into 2021, Billy Price was a solid Center, and Will Hernandez has always been an acceptable starter, even if he probably should have been better. Price and Hernandez are FAs, but I think it'd be easy to retain both. They need 1 starter on the OL for sure, but I don't think its as dire as the media has portrayed it to be. 

I can't see them being in on Watson. If anything, Daniel Jones value went up more from his absence, then it could have ever gone up from him playing. I agree TE is a need, but the best guys should be there in round 2. 

rockaction said:
Nice read. I think the Giants and the Jets might just switch the whole thing around, with the Jets maybe taking Stingley and Wilson, and the Giants drafting a rawer Thibodeaux (he might fall to five due to his rawness) and an offensive lineman. 

All the noise out of New York is that Giants will be taking an o-lineman with one of the picks, at least if the diehards who follow the team are to have their wishes become reality. The media constantly asked Gettleman about his failure to procure an offensive line, and he had no answers other than that product on the field. They don't need another WR with Golladay and Toney and Slayton signed through next year. They're probably not going a WR direction, if you want my humble opinion. 
Darius Slayton sucks. He's maybe an acceptable #4 WR. I did preface by saying, especially with teams with no HC or GM, that I was saying more what I would do. I think they have 2 weapons in the passing game right now, and Golladay has been pretty damn injury prone. 

I could see Linderbaum with the 7th pick, and would be completely ok with that. 

 

offdee

Footballguy
Good read, but NO WAY the first QB drops to #20 and only one QB selected in the first round.    Maybe that's how it SHOULD ultimately be, but come draft day there will be 3-4 that get hyped up and end up all going in the top 20.   Just how the NFL world is.  If you don't have a QB, you ain't goin nowhere.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
Rule #1 is that QBs go higher than expected. Pickett almost surely goes in the top 10. 

Otherwise...I like it!

Like @offdee said, QBs are at a premium. Even though he probably shouldn't be, Corral will be a first rounder. Willis, Howell, and Strong have good chances to be too (particularly Strong).

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
rockaction said:
The Jets might build from the back end on defense from what I've read. That Joe Douglas believes, like Belichick, that defense starts from the back. That wouldn't seem to be the vogueish organizational fit with Saleh being a D-Line coach at heart, but he was also a DC and will do what the defense needs. The Jets desperately need either an offensive lineman or receiver after that, and it wouldn't surprise if they took they almost surefire bet in Wilson, combine depending, and depending on Becton's health at LT and if they can resign Moses and Fant, who both were effective this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see them stay pat, really. But they will draft at least one defensive player. They just finished as one of the worst teams across two decades on defense, if you believe Tom Kislingbury's defensive reporting. 

Also disagree with the WAS pick. Davis didn't even start this year. Landon Collins made the transition to linebacker by the end of the year and was very effective, at least in stuffing the stat sheet, with Holcomb and Bostic hurt. If Holcomb, Bostic, Collins, and Davis all come back, they're probably not blowing another number one on a low-value position. They have other needs. Like that glaring one at QB that they might address in the early-mid-first. 
I think it would be really hard for the Jets to pass on Kayvon. Franklin-Myers has been an ascendant player, but he's basically all they have for pass rushers. They signed Carl Lawson to a big contract but he got hurt, and was possibly/probably a 1 year wonder anyway. 

Fant isn't a FA. I agree the defense needs help just about everywhere, which means WR seems like a longshot to me. They've got Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, and will likely re-sign 1 of Crowder/Cole/Berrios(hopefully Berrios) I could see them adding another WR, but not in round 1. 

As for Washington, Davis started multiple games this year. He played almost 600 snaps. He's also going to get every chance to become an every down player. Bostic won't be re-signed, and Holcomb(while a solid player) isn't anything special. I will agree that Collins stuffed the stat sheet, but he certainly wasn't a good player. He's probably 50-50 to be a cap casualty as well, as they can save almost 7 million by cutting him. 

I agree QB is a huge need, I just don't see anyone worth taking at 11. I think Washington is a sneaky team to possibly be in the DeShaun Watson hunt though. 

 

rockaction

Footballguy
As for Washington, Davis started multiple games this year. He played almost 600 snaps
First, I should say I don't mean to quibble too much. I mean, this is truly a lot of effort on your part. I'm only chiming in about things I follow.

So the quoted is true, but that's not really the whole story. He started because guys were hurt. He'd lost the job out of camp where he had been wearing the green dot. He was still having trouble diagnosing coverages for even the latter half of the year. I drafted him in dynasty IDP in the second round, so believe me, I followed him. 

Collins does have an out this year, and they're not going to pay that much for a linebacker, but there's always restructuring. 

Fant isn't a FA
This is true and I simply put him there because I was unaware whether it was this year or next that they'd have to worry about signing him. I know Moses was on a one-year deal. He was the important guy. 

I don't think they'll take a receiver, either. I was just saying it because flipping the Giants and Jets picks made more sense. If it's what you'd do, then that makes it a totally different story. Pick away! 

I disagree about Slayton, though. I think if he ever gets to a place where the QB and O-line are competent enough to support a deeper threat, he'll be good. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Good job. :thumbup:

Historically safeties are not taken this high, not even Derwin was taken this high in the draft but pass rushers are coveted.  Kayvon was consistently mocked first until Aiden blew up late in the year.  The Bama OT will be taken high and 'possibly' first overall, but it wouldn't surprise me if the pass rushers go off the board one-two.
Love Kyle Hamilton. I think he's the best player in this draft class. He's an even better prospect than Derwin was. I'm not sure I can recall a Safety prospect as promising as Hamilton. He could play LB or CB at a high level if needed. 

I could see pass rushers going 1-2(that's typically what is mocked) but Hamilton and Neal are both elite prospects.

Texans and Notre Dame fan here, so clearly love Kyle going to Houston. Everyone seems to mock Houston with a DE but I agree with you more that if it’s defense I think they go DB - Hamilton or Stingley. 

That said, I think Houston needs weapons. Next year I think Mills has shown enough to give him another season to see if he’s the guy before they’d go QB early in 2023. I’d be very curious and interested to see Houston find a way to get one of these first round WE this year. The class is deep and thanks to BOB the team has to reload weapons on offense almost more than D and also to set up whomever becomes the next franchise QB with appropriate weapons. 
I think Mills has shown enough to be a part of the team's future, but I doubt he'll be given the starting job. I think they are a sneaky candidate to end up with Jimmy G.  I agree they need some weapons, its basically just Cooks and maybe Nico Collins. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
@travdogg

Totally unfair because I went straight to Phillips but that guy has largely been a Home Run as a rookie and one of the reasons Chris Grier even has a job. 8.5 sacks, 16 QB Hits, sure stats can be misleading but he was being praised mostly and especially when Miami was winning the 2nd half of the season. But he's a pass rush specialist all the way, don't see him dropping back into OLB duties in the flats. 

96th/113 on PFF so there's a lot more than raw sack totals that factor into all this. 

-Could Miami use another Edge rusher? What team couldn't but I want Miami to focus on their Offense, they need to continue to improve there. 

-Miami also hit a major Home Run on Jevon Holland and let's not also forget about Waddle at WR, they could be on a tear if they can keep it rolling with BPA, as long as it isn't a Cornerback, there's really not a position they couldn't use a fresh body. OL-they need 3 new starters,  need another strong WR(Tee Higgins didn't stop Cinci from taking Chase) Tight End is up in the air with Gesicki possibly leaving, DL is pretty strong right now if we retain Ogbah and Zach Sieler who ranks 4th out of 117 DL. Van Ginkel is going to need to be paid, I like him and wish they could keep him but they ponied up for Baker who was solid although not Pro Bowl level but he's pretty good. How many LBs do you need these days? I would argue 2 good ones because you mostly run Nickel even in many base formations. 

Appreciate you putting forth the effort, didn't mean to jump on just 1 player because I used to get fussy when folks would do it to me so i wanted to give you a lot more info than just "you're so wrong" 😆

Cheers!
I agree the interior DL is in great shape, but EDGE has some questions, and I think its also possible/likely that a lot of the success of guys like Ogbah and Van Ginkel was because of Brian Flores. I didn't mean that Phillips sucked by any means, only that he was a little disappointing. He needs to greatly improve at everything besides pass rushing, or else he may get pigeonholed as a situational pass rusher, which still is very valuable, but you'd like more out of a top-20 pick is all I meant. 

I'd be very surprised if Gesicki leaves, I would think he's priority #1 to re-sign. I think the secondary is in great shape, even with Noah I. looking like a huge bust so far. Agree OL is a huge issue. Hunt looks pretty good(especially with the ball in his hands) and Dieter seems like a solid player with the move to Center, That said, Jackson and Eichenberg have shown nothing, and Grier should be much more interested in improving the OL in FA, as he clearly isn't good at drafting them. 

Another WR is likely to be added somewhere in the draft, but probably not until day 2 at the earliest. I think Waddle/Parker complement each other pretty well, and Gesicki adds a really good 3rd option. I think RB could be added as well, after Gaskin failed as a starter, and while Duke Johnson had a nice run down the stretch, I don't think he's the answer by any means. 

 

kodycutter

Footballguy
love reading these early mocks.    i don't think travdogg is far off on the giants taking a WR with one of those picks - offensively the team is offensive.   literally no one who opponents have to gameplan around.     so many holes on the team.   love to pick up another 1st next year.   

 
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Desert_Power

Footballguy
Miami likes the potential of Phillips who had 10 sacks, some were cheap coverage sacks, as the guy has a motor and speed. He was rated poorly vs the run, maybe he bulks up a little using Tyler Herro's trainer.  I think they go offense in a draft deep with WR and IOL. Or maybe a QB if the new coach falls in love with one who drops, such as Willis, who's like the antonym of Tua. I think more than 1 QB goes in round 1.
I don't agree really with the OP's writeup on Ogbah and Phillips, but the former is a free agent so an edge is certainly a position to address.

 

Acrobat7

Footballguy
Thank you for doing this.

I have zero clue about this draft class but think you would get really good odds on only 1 QB going in the first round and PIT picking him.

 

TripleThreat

Footballguy
Pff grade of 53.7 for Phillips. One of the worst edge rushers vs the run. But 10 sacks, and #3 in QB pressures among rookies after Parsons and Odafe Odeh, who both had better seasons. The potential is there, I think he needs to get stronger.


PFF grades mean have zero value for me, especially on the def side.  

Phillips: slow start, yes. strong finish, yes. disappointment, no.   

 

joey

Footballguy
For the Raiders….I agree that OLine is an area they need to continue to invest in. A mostly revamped OLine definitely performed much better than the doomsday predictions out there, but the Raiders are still at the top of the lower third of teams in sacks/game. So either OLine, or continue to invest in DBs or the defense in general. With the Ruggs incident, I do wonder if they swing for another impact WR but they’re also getting by pretty well with the combo of Waller/Renfrow/ZayJones, and 2nd year Edwards has his moments when targeted. 

 

TLEF316

Footballguy
As a Jets fan, I'd be thrilled to get Kayvon at 4. Not really on-board with a tackle at 10, as I think they need to see what they have with Becton (is he ever gonna stay healthy?) before investing another high pick. Wouldn't be shocked to see Fant stay at LT (he played decent this year) with a hopefully healthy Becton shifting to RT.  While he's obviously physically capable of mauling people, he struggled a little in pass pro his rookie year. And he was beaten like a rented mule all of training camp this year. (like every day, he was giving up multiple "sacks")  Chalk it up to being out of shape.....the shift to zone blocking...Lawson being really good (before he went down)....whatever. I think there's definitely a non-zero chance that Becton's future is on the other side.

 
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Buckna

RMT Beta Tester
Have seen Neal mocked here and there to the Jags. Think the draftniks kind of focus on BPA since it’s too early to worry about need before cuts, trades and FA. But most will realize that 3 of the Jags starters on o’line are FA’s included LT Cam Robinson before much longer. They drafted a Tackle in the 2nd last year that really only has experience as a LT, so I could see something like the last Tackle that went #1 overall in Eric Fisher. In that they could stick Neal at RT for the first year as a transition into the pro’s and then move him to LT maybe later.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Hutch is a "fraud" imo, and was exposed when it mattered most - against top competition. I project he falls out of the top 5, and maybe even the top 10 (mabye a stretch). He'll be the "what the heck" of the draft.

Tibs goes #2 to the Lions.

Solid look tho. We'll see Hutch top 3 over and over... I just don't buy it
I couldn't disagree more. Hutch played some of his best ball in big games. His 2 best games were the Ohio State game, and the Big ten championship game. 

If you are just judging by the Georgia game, which wasn't his best work, but still wasn't bad, that feels short sighted. Kinda like saying if TJ Watt doesn't have a great game this weekend against KC, he's not really that good. 

 

Uruk-Hai

Footballguy
travdogg said:
14. Bal=Kaiir Elam CB Florida...The Ravens secondary was the #1 reason they missed the playoffs this year(even more than Lamar getting hurt in my opinion) and while Humphrey and Peters should be back, the Ravens have always been a team unafraid to draft a guy, with a more long term plan in mind.
Though I don't know this specific player, I could see Baltimore going DB here. They are borderline paranoid about having enough DBs, and this season surely wouldn't lessen that fear. Both Jimmy Smith & Tavon Young are probably gone. They ended the season having to play 4 or 5 guys who were driving beer trucks just a few weeks before. 

It doesn't mean anything, but the last time the Ravens drafted a DB out of UF in the 1st with the last name "Elam" it didn't work out so well :lol:

They also need help at OL and LB, and need to rebuild the DL. Could use a coverage S, too - Clark & Elliott are both thumpers and not great at creating TOs or running with receivers.

They have - at this moment - 10 picks with 7 of them in the first 4 rounds, and Baltimore has always made hay with mid-to-late round picks. So they have a lot of flexibility on what to do with that 1st rounder.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
It will be interesting to see if Williams declares. 
But also, after thinking all year that Thibodeaux was going 1.01 unless a QB stepped up big, he might fall out of the top 5. He’ll be crazy value if he does but all it takes is a team or two thinking a QB looks like a franchise player. 

 

Soulfly3

Footballguy
I couldn't disagree more. Hutch played some of his best ball in big games. His 2 best games were the Ohio State game, and the Big ten championship game. 


Problem is, even Michigan's "top competition" was subpar this season... Ohio State? Worst they've been in a long time. Michigan State the next best comp they faced and they're cheeks too. 

I'm not saying he won't be a good player, but his value is crazy inflated due to who he's up against. Like I said, when he FINALLY met up with big boys (NFL calibre) he looked lost. They were basically taunting him about it the next day.

Ya, the sample size is small, but it looks real bad

 
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Godsbrother

Footballguy
belljr said:
not a pickett fan


I like Pickett but not as a #1 and not for the Steelers.   The Steelers need to drastically improve the offensive line and will have needs at defensive line, inside linebacker and defensive backfield.   To me it makes a heck of lot more sense to pick up a veteran QB in FA to compete with Rudolph than it does to draft a QB in 2022.  

That said, it wouldn't shock me if they go QB at #1, I just don't expect it.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Problem is, even Michigan's "top competition" was subpar this season... Ohio State? Worst they've been in a long time. Michigan State the next best comp they faced and they're cheeks too. 

I'm not saying he won't be a good player, but his value is crazy inflated due to who he's up against. Like I said, when he FINALLY met up with big boys (NFL calibre) he looked lost. They were basically taunting him about it the next day.

Ya, the sample size is small, but it looks real bad
Ohio State finished ranked 6th and lost 2 games all year, with 1 being to Michigan, in a game Hutchinson thoroughly dominated, going up against a likely day 2 OT. 

If you are down on Hutchinson for 1 down game against the national champs, you must really hate Kayvon, as he did far less, against lower competition.

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
Though I don't know this specific player, I could see Baltimore going DB here. They are borderline paranoid about having enough DBs, and this season surely wouldn't lessen that fear. Both Jimmy Smith & Tavon Young are probably gone. They ended the season having to play 4 or 5 guys who were driving beer trucks just a few weeks before. 

It doesn't mean anything, but the last time the Ravens drafted a DB out of UF in the 1st with the last name "Elam" it didn't work out so well :lol:

They also need help at OL and LB, and need to rebuild the DL. Could use a coverage S, too - Clark & Elliott are both thumpers and not great at creating TOs or running with receivers.

They have - at this moment - 10 picks with 7 of them in the first 4 rounds, and Baltimore has always made hay with mid-to-late round picks. So they have a lot of flexibility on what to do with that 1st rounder.
Agreed, I was thinking either DB or OL for the Ravens. Thought about Linderbaum for them, but just felt CB made more sense. 

I'm going to go out on a limb, but I think Kaiir Elam will have a better career than Matt Elam did, probably regardless of where he gets drafted. 

 

Uruk-Hai

Footballguy
I'm going to go out on a limb, but I think Kaiir Elam will have a better career than Matt Elam did, probably regardless of where he gets drafted. 
I'm almost 60 years old and, if I got drafted this year, I'd probably have a better career than Matt Elam

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I like Pickett but not as a #1 and not for the Steelers.   The Steelers need to drastically improve the offensive line and will have needs at defensive line, inside linebacker and defensive backfield.   To me it makes a heck of lot more sense to pick up a veteran QB in FA to compete with Rudolph than it does to draft a QB in 2022.  

That said, it wouldn't shock me if they go QB at #1, I just don't expect it.
Fully agree that OL and DB are big needs. I think ILB is too, but I think the Steelers are still really high on what they have there. Do you think Tuitt is going to be cut? If not, I think DL is probably the strongest unit on the roster, and even without him, its one of the better groups in the NFL. I think WR might also be a need, as JuJu and Washington could both be gone. 

What kind of veteran QB are we talking about though to compete with Rudolph? Dalton? Brissett? They'll have to give up major draft capital for anybody much better than that. Would the Steelers be a team to maybe make a run at Garoppolo? 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Historically safeties are not taken this high, not even Derwin was taken this high in the draft but pass rushers are coveted. 
Was scrolling down to say exactly this. Hard agree. 

I believe the skill players at WR & even 1-2 (possibly 3) of the RBs could go in the 1st round. 

Except to the Giants, who need everything except WR. 

And I’m not convinced that any of the QBs will go super early.  The Steelers have a ton of talent at the offensive skill positions & I could see them pursuing a veteran rather than drafting a 1st round QB. 

Time will tell. A fun early mock though. 

 

Godsbrother

Footballguy
Fully agree that OL and DB are big needs. I think ILB is too, but I think the Steelers are still really high on what they have there. Do you think Tuitt is going to be cut? If not, I think DL is probably the strongest unit on the roster, and even without him, its one of the better groups in the NFL. I think WR might also be a need, as JuJu and Washington could both be gone. 

What kind of veteran QB are we talking about though to compete with Rudolph? Dalton? Brissett? They'll have to give up major draft capital for anybody much better than that. Would the Steelers be a team to maybe make a run at Garoppolo? 
The last I heard, the Steelers are not really certain what is going on with Tuitt.  I don't think they want to cut him but he even if he is back I'm not sure how much you can rely on him?

Definitely will need some  WR help if JuJu isn't back.  Not really interested in Washington.

I believe the Steelers think they are okay going into the pre-season with Rudolph as their starter.  They're going to need someone to compete but I don't think it will be Haskins or Dobbs (Dobbs probably more likely than Haskins).   Looking at the UFA ranks for QBs I could see them possibly bringing in Bridgewater, Brissett, Winston, Trubisky.   Or they could make a trade or draft a QB - but not in the 1st I hope.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
The last I heard, the Steelers are not really certain what is going on with Tuitt.  I don't think they want to cut him but he even if he is back I'm not sure how much you can rely on him?

Definitely will need some  WR help if JuJu isn't back.  Not really interested in Washington.

I believe the Steelers think they are okay going into the pre-season with Rudolph as their starter.  They're going to need someone to compete but I don't think it will be Haskins or Dobbs (Dobbs probably more likely than Haskins).   Looking at the UFA ranks for QBs I could see them possibly bringing in Bridgewater, Brissett, Winston, Trubisky.   Or they could make a trade or draft a QB - but not in the 1st I hope.
I'm probably one of the bigger Rudolph fans there is, and I think the Steelers would be better off this year, if he starter instead of Roethlisberger. That said, I'd be very interested in Bridgewater in Pittsburgh. He's in that group of QBs who is good enough to win with, but not win because of. He's likely a better option than Rudolph and was a lot better in Denver than he gets credit for. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
To clarify on QBs. I do think 3 QB's likely go in round 1, this more of a what I would do, then what I think will happen, which I think makes more sense this far out, as many teams don't even have GMs let alone HCs. 

I think Pickett is the safest of the QBs, but I think Corral has more upside. I wouldn't be shocked if he were 1st off the board. I think Howell has some upside too, but has the looks of a very boom/bust type. I think Willis, Ridder and especially Strong are a little overrated. Small school toolsy types aren't really my jam at QB. 

I don't think any of the QBs in this draft would have gone ahead of any of the 1st round QBs from a year ago though. Hindsight being what it is, I think if Justin Fields stays at Ohio St for another year, he's going #2 overall in this draft at worst, simply by being that much better of a prospect than the other QBs. 

 

FunkyPlutos

Footballguy
I'd be happy with Gardner (or any of the highly rated CBs, but Sauce is my favorite), Linderbaum or Ojabo for the Vikings!

 

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