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Travdogg's Week 3 Predictions (1 Viewer)


Car(-8.5) at Hou 

This sets up as a fantastic game for DJ Moore, his only possible issue is a lack of volume if Houston doesn't put up a fight. That said, 125 yards feels reasonable. 

I could see CMC getting a smaller workload than usual this week, in an effort not to burn him out in a game that should be over quick. But he's a guy who can put up 100 yards in any given quarter.

I expect Houston to be completely unable to sustain offense in this game. They won't be able to run the ball, and I think Mills is going to look greatly overmatched. I'm expecting a lot of checkdowns to TEs, as Carolina focuses on Cooks. 

My pick: Carolina

Was at Buf(-7.5) 

I think Buffalo's defense is a bit overrated having played a Steelers team with maybe the worst OL in the NFL, and a Miami team that pretty much gave up after Tua went down. Feels weird to say, but Heinicke and Washington are the toughest test to date. 

I think Terry McLaurin is 2021's Calvin Ridley. I don't think Tre'Davious White can handle him 1-1 and expect 100 yards from McLaurin. I also think Washington's OL keeps Heinicke clean, and Buffalo's D is perhaps a poor start this week.

I do think Buffalo shuts down the running game, as well as the RBs in the passing game. If Washington wins its going to be outside the hashes.

Buffalo's OL has been a problem so far this year, and its only going to get worse against Washington's pass rush. I expect Josh Allen(who has looked a lot like pre-2020 Allen so far) to be running for his life. This might be a game where Allen does a lot in the rushing department, especially as Washington got run on heavily by Daniel Jones a week ago.

Cole Beasley feels like he's perhaps been passed by Emmanuel Sanders as the #2 WR. That will likely be true this week, as Washington's top CB is slot man Kendall Fuller. Meanwhile Sanders and Stefon Diggs get to feast on William Jackson(who is very boom/bust) and rookie Benjamin St.Juste. Look for Sanders to be a sneaky 100 yard game candidate, and Diggs to hit 125. 

Not expecting much from Singletary and co. 

My pick: Washington

Chi at Cle(-7)

Welcome to the starting lineup Justin Fields, and it gets to be so close to his alma mater. Well, that ends the good news for Fields. The Bears OL has been awful this year, and now faces arguably the best pass rush in the NFL. I'm not seeing much offense from the Bears in this one. I think the Browns are a great defensive start this week, with at least a couple sacks from Fields just holding the ball too long.

I think Allen Robinson might be downgraded with Fields, and is probably nothing more than a top-20 WR going forward. The people who took him over McLaurin, or the Tampa/Dallas WRs I think are going to really wish they had that pick back.

Not seeing much for Montgomery either. His workload likely keeps him from outright busting but 75 yards feels like a high end expectation.

Odell Beckham is expected to return this week, and while I think he's going to be very productive in this offense, I'm expecting more of a decoy role this week. I think Anthony Schwartz is a sneaky DFS flier this week, and the TE's, most likely Hooper, should be the focal point of the passing game this week. 

This feels like a game where the Bears D plays well for most of the game, and then just tires out late. That's when a guy like Nick Chubb starts breaking off huge chunks. I think a 150 yard game is on the table for Chubb this week. 

My pick: Cleveland

Bal(-8) at Det 50

This feels like high scoring game. Green Bay honestly left a ton on the table Monday Night. I'm not sure Detroit keeps anyone under 30 all season. 

Hollywood Brown has quietly been on fire for like 9 straight games. He's a high-end WR2 in my opinion. This could be his monster week. Detroit has had multiple coverage breakdowns through 2 weeks. SF took advantage, GB kinda did, but missed on several. I think Hollywood could honestly have a career game this week. Like 175 yards or so.

Mark Andrews is also due for a big week, and the Lions have also struggled with TE big plays. 100 yards is in play for him as well. This feels like more of a Lamar Jackson passing week, and maybe save the run game for weeks where you need it more. 

Ravens RBs should have field days as well. I think Freeman won't be as big of a role this week, and it'll be Williams and Murray. I think 100 yards is in play for both of them. Possibly 125 for Williams.

I also think the Ravens defense isn't really the Ravens defense we are used to. Other than pass rush, the Ravens haven't really looked like anything special on defense. As much talk as the RB injuries get, Marcus Peters is 10X the loss for this team. 

I think the Lions offense has their best game of the season this week. I think the running/checkdown game works as Williams and Swift could have 100 yards. I think Hockenson will continue his hot streak, though he likely won't be as successful as Waller was against this defense. Likely a WR has a nice week too. My bet is on St.Brown, as the Ravens are particularly weaker in the slot than outside, as Humphrey has moved back outside with Peters injury.

My pick: Lions

Ind at Ten(-5.5)

As much as I think Carson Wentz is a pretty bad QB, Eason could be a disaster. This could be a blowout. As long as it isn't though, I expect Jonathan Taylor to eat. 100 yards feels doable. I expect the Titans mediocre pass rush to get to the QB a couple times in this game. Titans D is a great start if Wentz is out, and a decent one if he plays. 

I wouldn't have chased Michael Pittman's numbers even if Wentz were healthy. I just think this is an unreliable offense beyond Taylor, and even he's likely to not live up to expectations. 

The Titans made a great comeback last week, but I still think this is a very sketchy offense right now. I'm not saying bench Derrick Henry(obviously) but I'd expect him to be closer to week 1 than week 2. 

I'm expecting the Colts pass rush to give the Titans  banged up OL fits. Much like Arizona's did. Kwity Paye has looked like a real difference maker through 2 games, and Buckner is always a problem. 

I think the Titans offense struggles to move the ball but could get some short fields to work with.

My pick: Titans

LAC at KC(-5.5)

This should a DFS game to target. I think Austin Ekeler should be a centerpiece of any DFS lineup. However they decide to use him, he should have lots of success. Could he run for 150 yards? Yes. Could he have 125 receiving? Yes. I mean, he likely won't do both, but I don't see him being stopped at all. 

The Chris Jones DE experiment has been a slight bust so far. Mostly because its severely weakened the interior line. I'm expecting Justin Herbert to have mostly clean pockets, and I think the Chargers would be smart to take a lesson from the Ravens and use some read option against a defense clearly weak against it. Herbert isn't mobile like Jackson, but he's more mobile than most.

I do think KC likely slows down Allen and Williams a bit. Mostly due to how weak they are against the run, but I should mention former Vikings 1st rounder Mike Hughes has looked like an excellent pickup for KC. Always like when teams take fliers on former 1st rounders, especially ones where it was more injury issues than poor play that made then not work out for the team that drafted them. I'd also like to point out Jared Cook being a relatively big part of the Chargers offense. While Andrews didn't do much against KC last week, Cleveland's TE's were open all day in week 1. I could see Cook getting loose for some big plays this week.

As for KC's offense. I think this could be interesting. The Chargers are weaker against the run than the pass, but KC has shown no intention of running, and CEH has looked pretty awful the 1st 2 weeks. I do think CEH is an interesting buy-low, but I think unless he hits the endzone, it could be even lower next week. He's a guy I would be looking for reasons not to start this week.

It will be interesting seeing the new look Chiefs OL vs Joey Bosa. My gut says Bosa gets at least 1 sack, but Mahomes is mostly kept clean. Derwin James has been lining up in the slot a lot so far, and part of me wonders how he'll be deployed this week. Also Asante Samuel Jr., has looked like a chip of the ol' block. He really should have been a 1st rounder, and that was clear at the time.

My gut says the Chargers take a somewhat similar tact to the Ravens, and adopt an "anybody but Hill" defense. Obviously you always start Hill, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had another lower scoring week. Travis Kelce likely leads the way again this week, and hits 100 yards. I think its kind of now or never for Mecole Hardman. I'm going to call him a sneaky DFS play, who hits a big play or 2 this week. 

My pick: Chargers

NO at NE(-2.5) 

2 weeks in, and we know as much about Winston as we did before the season. My gut says Kamara is the only useful fantasy piece in this offense until Thomas comes back, and who knows what version of him we'll get. Not expecting much from the Saints offense, and think they might play extra conservative this week. I expect a lot of designed screens to Kamara.

Mac Jones has been pretty impressive so far, although he hasn't been asked to do a ton yet. That may not change this week, though the Saints defense probably offers more resistance in the running game than the Dolphins or Jets did.

I think Damien Harris is probably a bust if he doesn't hit the endzone this week, and think James White is the superior play. He seems to be back to his Brady-level usage in a post-Cam offense.

I like both Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor as sleeper starts this week. The Saints secondary is likely down both Marshon Lattimore and Chauncey Gardener-Johnson. I like Meyers slightly more. TE is probably a stay away at the moment. Somebody may have a nice game, but its very 50-50 as to who it may be.

My pick: New England

Atl at NYG(-3) 

Through 2 weeks it looks like Atlanta made a mistake picking Kyle Pitts, not because of anything he's done, but because Matt Ryan looks like he's losing it, and the OL is awful. Justin Fields or Penei Sewell would look really nice right now. I'm expecting a nice game for the Giants defense this week. 

The Falcons running game is a lot more RBBC than anyone who drafted Mike Davis has hoped, and that is unlikely to change. Ridley and Pitts are the only Falcons I'd want to start this week, and I'm not excited about either the way Ryan has looked. Ridley looks like he might be more of a top-12 WR, than a top-3 guy.

Don't look now, but Daniel Jones is QB5 in fantasy, and while I'm not sure that'll hold up all year, its very possible it does for at least another week. These read option plays are killer, and no reason to expect Atlanta to stop them, and if/when teams do adjust, that likely leads to some big Barkley plays. Speaking of Barkley, I think he continues showing improvement, but I'm not expecting some monster game this week for him. He's likely a top-10 RB this week, but he's not somebody I'm using in DFS.

On the other hand, Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay are poised for big games. I think both could hit 100 yards this week. Golladay in particular feels due, and he certainly fits the squeaky wheel narrative. 

My pick: Giants

Cin at Pit(-3)

The Steelers are really banged up on defense, and this matchup looks a lot better for the Bengals than it did going onto the season. That said, even with the injuries, I think Joe Burrow is going to be under a lot of pressure, that said, he's also likely going to have some wide open WR's.

Tyler Boyd would be my guess for the most productive Bengals WR this week. I think he sees his 1st 100 yard game of the season. I also like Tee Higgins assuming he's healthy. I do think Chase may be more big play dependent, and there might not be time for those. Boyd>Higgins>Chase is my ranking for this week.

I like Mixon to be involved a lot through the air as well this week, 100 total yards should be doable, though I expect an ineffective day on the ground.

The Steelers offense may be an even bigger mess than the defense. Arguably the league's worst OL, a likely washed up QB, who is also banged up, and now a banged up(to what extent nobody knows) #1 WR. 

I'm expecting Johnson to play for now, though at far less than 100% and I'd be looking for reasons to sit him. JuJu matches up with the Bengals top CB in Mike Hilton, and unless he gets in the end zone, I expect little from Najee Harris. The 1 guy I have interest in this week is Chase Claypool, especially if Johnson is out. I think 125 yards is on the table, as the Bengals weakness is outside WRs, and Claypool should see a good amount of Eli Apple. 

It sounds bold, but I would begrudge someone using the Bengals defense this week.

My pick: Bengals

Ari(-7.5) at Jax

Unfortunately for Urban Meyer this isn't the University of Arizona. The Cardinals have a top-3 offense and the Jags defense is maybe the worst in football. This is going to be a rough game for any Jags fan.

Kyler Murray should be the QB1 this week, he should have success doing whatever he wants this week. 325 passing and 100 rushing feels attainable. I do think it might be premature to trust Rondale Moore in lineups yet, but all he needs is 1 play, so if you have to use him, there is hope. I do think he's no higher than 3rd in the pecking order though. I do like Christian Kirk to have a long TD in this game. He's finally getting the slot work that he's always been best at, but wasn't able to get because the team was so loyal to Fitz. I like Kirk in DFS and as a sneaky weekly start.

The running game should have lots of success too. I think Edmonds clearly looks like a better RB than Conner, especially in this offense, but I understand why they aren't feeding him 20 touches a week. At times Edmonds reminds me a bit of an Ekeler/Kamara like player. I think he and Conner are decent starts this week in a game I think Arizona could score 50 if they want to.

I'd be wary of all Jaguars this week. Even in a blowout, I think the WRs are unreliable, even Jones who has been consistent these first 2 weeks. I wish the Jags would get James Robinson more involved in the passing game, as I think it would good for both Lawrence and the offense in general, but who know what Meyer is doing. 

How the hell is the spread only 7.5? If it was 15, I'd still take Arizona with no hesitation.

My pick: Arizona

NYJ at Den(-10.5)

Denver might have the NFL's best defense, the Jets might have the NFL's worst offense. I'm expecting Wilson to continue throwing INT's, and Von Miller and co. to get to him multiple times. Denver is the top defensive play this week, and if the Jets top 14 points I'll be shocked. I'd be sitting every Jet.

Teddy Bridgewater certainly looks like the right choice so far as the starter. I'm expecting that to continue this week, though the Jets aren't a horrible defense. I'm betting the receiving production is spread out much more this week, and while I do like Sutton, I think he's more a WR2/3 than somebody I'm truly counting on. 

I think Denver mostly has success on the ground this week, as they will likely have a double digit lead from quarter 1 onward. Both Williams and Gordon are solid flex starts this week. I would bet on Williams having his 1st TD this week, and maybe more than 1.

My pick: Denver, and this is my survivor pick this week.

Mia at LV(-4.5)

With a week to prepare, I think Jacoby Brissett will likely look a lot better this week, and adding Will Fuller will only help. That said, Casey Hayward has turned back the clock and looks like a shutdown CB again, and the Raiders pass rush has been outstanding. Brissett likely spends time running for his life, but that also may result in a nice rushing day for him. 

I think Myles Gaskin should have a nice PPR day. The Raiders are among the NFL's worst teams at covering RBs, and they will likely keep the Safeties deep with both Fuller and Waddle playing.

The Raiders offense has been a pleasant surprise so far, especially since they are still a pretty poor OL, and Josh Jacobs has been injured. Derek Carr hasn't looked this good since the Cooper/Crabtree days. That said, I think this is a very rough matchup for the Raiders. I expect the running game to contribute next to nothing, and Miami's CB's can matchup 1-1 as well as any. 

I think Miami follows the Steelers gameplan of "anybody but Waller" only they have the CBs to do it, unlike the Steelers. I think its likely dink and dunk in the passing game to Drake and Renfrow, and a mostly quiet day for Carr.

My pick: Miami

TB(-1) at LAR

This is easily the game of the week. The Rams have looked better than I expected, and the Bucs have shown a little more weakness than I expected given who they played so far.

I think Tampa doesn't even try to run in this game. Brady is going to have 50+ attempts even with Brown out. Speaking of Brown being out, my guess is that Ramsey covers Godwin, and they they put a man over the top of Evans. I'd rank Evans over Godwin, but its probably semantics, they are both WR2 material. I'm not touching any other Bucs WR. I expect Miller and Tyler Johnson to likely rotate and wouldn't be surprised if we got more 2-TE sets with Brate or Howard as well. I think the Gronk train keeps on rolling though. He might be the top target this week.

While I'm still not sure if it was worth a huge cap hit and 2 firsts, Stafford has been a very clear upgrade from Goff. I think the Rams will try to run on Tampa, and may have success. I like Stafford to have a good game this week, and love Cooper Kupp, who could easily have a week 1 Amari Cooper like game.

My pick: Rams

Sea(-1.5) at Min

An up and down offense vs an up and down defense is how I would describe the Seattle offense vs the Minnesota defense. I think Tyler Lockett keeps the big games coming, and whomever lines up across my Breeland(literally anyone, even Geno Smith would get open) likely has success. Breeland playing over Dantzler is a criminal misuse of talent. I do think Seattle will be more pass heavy this week, as I think the matchups dictate it, and Carson could struggle this week if he doesn't hit the endzone. I think the OL can keep Wilson for the most part.

This sets up as another game that the Vikings should be passing heavily in, but my gut says they stubbornly don't. Look, Dalvin Cook is awesome, but this should be a pass 1st team pretty much regardless of opponent. That is where there best talent mismatches lie every week. Hell, pass it more to Cook if you want to keep him super involved.

Kirk Cousins is continuing to play very well, and it seems like KJ Osborn is going to be a real part of this offense, and looks pretty solid doing it. I do worry about protection issues, even against Seattle, but I like this as a sneaky shootout. I think this is your Justin Jefferson breakout week. 

My pick: Seattle

GB at SF(-3.5) 

I think San Fran can shut down the secondary weapons, but I think Adams should get his 100 yards, and Aaron Jones might be in another great spot. Expecting 125 yards from Jones. Feels like a mid-range Rodgers game. I wouldn't chase Tonyan's TD, he's actually 3rd in TE snaps for GB.

I feel like Deebo Samuel doesn't keep this up all year, but no reason he can't against the Packers. I think this is a bit of a make or break game for George Kittle and calling him a top-3 TE still. If he doesn't show out this week, its probably time to move him down to TE 5/6.Personally, I think he has about 75 yards or so. 

I think the 49ers are able to run the ball this week regardless of who is actually doing it. This OL just opens up massive holes. 

This is the hardest game to pick this week in my opinion, and probably a stay away betting wise.

My pick: Green Bay

Phi at Dal(-4)

A lot of people were like, "Who is Jordan Mailata?" well, the answer so far is the best OT east of Trent Williams. Jalen Hurts has had a pretty good amount of time to throw so far this year, and the results have been encouraging. Kenneth Gainwell has been a bigger part of the offense than I was expecting, though it seems less at the expense of Sanders, and more at the expense of the TEs. I think that trend continues, and Gainwell is heavily involved this week, and in PPR may actually be a better start than Sanders, though both are likely ok RB2s. 

Devonta Smith has seen a high percentage of air yards and targets share. That said, it feels like Quez Watkins needs to be more involved going forward. Dallas struggles with speed so Watkins is a sneaky DFS start I think. Reagor has looked fine, but I think Hurts spreads it around a lot more evenly this week. I could see more passing and less rushing for Hurts this week, as they should be playing from behind.

Dak played a great game last week, but was a huge fantasy dud. That feels fluky, but the 400 yard games aren't going to come in games where the defense can hold up. This in another one of those weeks, and while his 8 point performance is obviously not going to happen again, I'm not expecting a monster week. Still a QB1, but more middle of the pack than at the top. 

The running game should have tons of success this week. I think Zeke is a high-end RB2, and Pollard a low-end RB2. I expect them both to be highly involved in the passing game as well. Cooper and Lamb should both be solid starts, but probably more in the 75 yard area I think. I think the TE position could be heavily involved. Sadly, Schultz and Jarwin aren't 1 guy, so it makes either tough to start. I bet there is 100 yards between the 2 though.

My pick: Dallas


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