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Trevor Hoffman--Is He a HOFer? (1 Viewer)

D

DCThunder

Footballguy
Last night during the All Star game, they kept referring to Trevor Hoffman as a "Hall of Famer". Since he's #2 on the all time saves list, and Lee Smith, who's #1 on the list isn't in Cooperstown, is Hoffman really a shoo-in for the Hall?

Seamheads, what say ye?

 
He's borderline for me and I'm the type that seems to want to let "too many" players in.

I don't think I ever considered him the dominant closer in the league.

 
I saw hoffmans salary was 4.5 million on a one year deal. Dam good money but Todd Jones of the Tiger is getting 5.5 and Hoffman has had a much better career.

Why is that?

 
He's borderline for me and I'm the type that seems to want to let "too many" players in.

I don't think I ever considered him the dominant closer in the league.
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:eek: honestly?
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Yeah. You did?I'm fully willing to admit I may be wrong on this one...
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Is Lee Smith a lock for everyone too? Not really sure he's a HOFer for me either.What about John Franco?

Jeff Reardon? Randy Myers?

All are a 'No' for me.

Rivera is the only lock for me.

 
He's borderline for me and I'm the type that seems to want to let "too many" players in.

I don't think I ever considered him the dominant closer in the league.
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:eek: honestly?
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Yeah. You did?I'm fully willing to admit I may be wrong on this one...
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1998 he was not only the dominant closer in the league, he may have been the dominant pitcher in the league.Yeah, he's kinda one of those lull you to sleep kind of guys, but he is money in the bank. His lifetime WHIP is 1.05 vs. 1.25 or so for Lee Smith. Well over a K/IP kinda pitcher who has totally retoooled his approach after earlier being able to hit mid-high 90's, now 85 is about top speed.

He has been so good for so long people simply forget how good he's been. He's led or come in second in the majors in saves 6x. This year he's having another tremendous year and no one even knows it. He will end his career, almost assuredly, as the career saves leader. This is Hoffman's 14th year (only 37 and he missed all of 2003 I believe), while Smith had played 18 years. The only other reliever deserving of the HOF currently would be Mariano Rivera.....all my opinion, which isn't worth a crap since I don't vote and believe Jim Rice should be in ahead of all of them :shrug:

 
Is Lee Smith a lock for everyone too? Not really sure he's a HOFer for me either.What about John Franco?Jeff Reardon? Randy Myers? All are a 'No' for me.Rivera is the only lock for me.
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Lee Smith is borderline, but I'd go no. Only one deserving other than Hoffman is Rivera...agreed.
 
Is Lee Smith a lock for everyone too?  Not really sure he's a HOFer for me either.

What about John Franco?

Jeff Reardon?  Randy Myers? 

All are a 'No' for me.

Rivera is the only lock for me.
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Lee Smith is borderline, but I'd go no. Only one deserving other than Hoffman is Rivera...agreed.
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Cool. So I don't think I'm too far off then.For me its Rivera - yes and Hoffman - no, Lee Smith - no as well. For others its Rivera and Hoffman - yes. Anyone think all 3 should go?

 
Goose Gossage needs to get in first.

Rivera will get in next.

Jon Paplebon was inducted in a private ceremony over the weekend.

 
The indicators they use over at baseball-reference.com look like this for Hoffman:

Black Ink: Pitching - 3 (526) (Average HOFer ~ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 36 (640) (Average HOFer ~ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 20.0 (290) (Average HOFer ~ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 119.0 (69) (Likely HOFer > 100)Essentially, Hoffman looks like he might have to wait for a guy like Smith or Rivera to get in first, thereby redefining what it takes for an RP to make it. I would say he NEEDS to pass Smith on the all-time saves list, too.He only has 5 All-Star appearances, I think, which is pretty low. He finished in the top 10 for the Cy Young 3 times (once got 2nd), which is good for an RP, and finished in the top 30 for NL MVP 4 times (once got 7th).

He only led the league in saves once. It doesn't say anything there about Save %.

 
I think I'm looking at it from a pure numbers perspective.

What's the knock on Lee?
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Looking at the numbers for Smith, it would seem that even if Hoffman passed him in total saves, having Hoffman in, but Smith not in would be pretty absurd.
 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)

 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
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Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
 
The indicators they use over at baseball-reference.com look like this for Hoffman:

Black Ink: Pitching - 3 (526) (Average HOFer ~ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 36 (640) (Average HOFer ~ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 20.0 (290) (Average HOFer ~ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 119.0 (69) (Likely HOFer > 100)Essentially, Hoffman looks like he might have to wait for a guy like Smith or Rivera to get in first, thereby redefining what it takes for an RP to make it. I would say he NEEDS to pass Smith on the all-time saves list, too.He only has 5 All-Star appearances, I think, which is pretty low. He finished in the top 10 for the Cy Young 3 times (once got 2nd), which is good for an RP, and finished in the top 30 for NL MVP 4 times (once got 7th).

He only led the league in saves once. It doesn't say anything there about Save %.
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Here are the numbers for Rivera:Black Ink: Pitching - 9 (246) (Average HOFer ~ 40)

Gray Ink: Pitching - 30 (750) (Average HOFer ~ 185)

HOF Standards: Pitching - 30.0 (137) (Average HOFer ~ 50)

HOF Monitor: Pitching - 152.0 (40) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Like you said, the standards will have to be set for modern closers.

I think Smith is out. His only advantage is loads of saves, but his overall numbers aren't that hot. I think Hoffman has a very good shot.

 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
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10 years after Rose Jr dies this way we don't have to listen to him either.
 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
Click to expand...
The most hits in the HISTORY of baseball....
 
I think Smith is out. His only advantage is loads of saves, but his overall numbers aren't that hot. I think Hoffman has a very good shot.
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I think Smith's Rolaids awards, All Star appearances, and years he led the league in saves makes him attractive vs. Hoffman. Hoffman's got a much better WHIP and ERA, and played in the juiced ball era to boot.
 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
Click to expand...
The most hits in the HISTORY of baseball....
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"Weren't most of them singles?"--Mickey Mantle

 
I think I'm looking at it from a pure numbers perspective.

What's the knock on Lee?
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Looking at the numbers for Smith, it would seem that even if Hoffman passed him in total saves, having Hoffman in, but Smith not in would be pretty absurd.
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How so? He is currently 18 saves behind Smith, so he will surely pass him. He's only 37, which means he could conceivably pitch 2-3 more season....He should beat Smiths record by about 50 saves.

Plus, he KILLS Smith almost across the board in pitching stats. Look up career WHIP, ERA, hell, K's per 9 IP.

IMO

Rivear>>Hoffman>>>Smith

 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
Click to expand...
The most hits in the HISTORY of baseball....
Click to expand...
"Weren't most of them singles?"--Mickey Mantle
Click to expand...
Rose also had about 3-4 years worth of ABs more than the next guy...
 
I think I'm looking at it from a pure numbers perspective.

What's the knock on Lee?
Click to expand...
Looking at the numbers for Smith, it would seem that even if Hoffman passed him in total saves, having Hoffman in, but Smith not in would be pretty absurd.
Click to expand...
How so? He is currently 18 saves behind Smith, so he will surely pass him. He's only 37, which means he could conceivably pitch 2-3 more season....He should beat Smiths record by about 50 saves.

Plus, he KILLS Smith almost across the board in pitching stats. Look up career WHIP, ERA, hell, K's per 9 IP.

IMO

Rivear>>Hoffman>>>Smith
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The HOF is about dominance. Smith was in 7 All Star Games including 5 in a row in the early 90s, in which for three of those years he led the league in saves.I think Smith also saved a lot more games in more than one inning, which helps explain the ERA and WHIP differences a bit.

Hoffman has better stats, but a lot of things that seem ot matter in HOF voting seem to go Smith's way.

I would say that Hoffman, to me, is a much better pitcher than Smith was, but I'm not sure how the HOF voters will see it.

EDIT: BTW, both of their postseason career numbers suck.

 
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I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
Click to expand...
The most hits in the HISTORY of baseball....
Click to expand...
"Weren't most of them singles?"--Mickey Mantle
Click to expand...
Rose also had about 3-4 years worth of ABs more than the next guy...
Click to expand...
I don't see how that's a bad thing.fwiw, I don't think Hoffman gets close.

 
I think it sucks when ground breakers are not inducted into the Hall...

Rose and Lee Smith need to be in the Hall....

As with Joe Jackson ( not a ground breaker, but one of the greatest players in the history of the game)
Click to expand...
Rose is scum. Maybe after he's dead. Make that 10 years after he's dead, just to make sure.
Click to expand...
The most hits in the HISTORY of baseball....
Click to expand...
"Weren't most of them singles?"--Mickey Mantle
Click to expand...
Rose also had about 3-4 years worth of ABs more than the next guy...
Click to expand...
I don't see how that's a bad thing.fwiw, I don't think Hoffman gets close.
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Just pointing it out. Doesn't make a difference really. Rose was a good player for a very long time and deserved to be in the HOF before he broke the rules.

 
The HOF is about dominance. Smith was in 7 All Star Games including 5 in a row in the early 90s, in which for three of those years he led the league in saves.

I think Smith also saved a lot more games in more than one inning, which helps explain the ERA and WHIP differences a bit.

Hoffman has better stats, but a lot of things that seem ot matter in HOF voting seem to go Smith's way.

I would say that Hoffman, to me, is a much better pitcher than Smith was, but I'm not sure how the HOF voters will see it.

EDIT: BTW, both of their postseason career numbers suck.
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I don't put any stock in All-Star appearances. None. It's useless.Saves are also somewhat inflated. Conversion rate is probably a good measure rather than raw saves. A closer can't control how many save opportunities he gets, afterall. I don't know of a good resource for blown saves data.

Smith had 1.26 IP/G whereas Hoffman is at 1.09 IP/G. That's a bit bigger for Smith who had more multi inning appearances, but nothing outrageous. Smith did have a handful of starts early in his career.

Hoffman's career ERA+ of 146 is far better than Smith's 132. Neither is spectacular in the context of today's closers. Rivera's is 197.

WHIP is really in Hoffman's favor. He wasn't wild like Smith was at times. Hoffman has a career 1.051 compared to Smith's 1.256.

Looking at Gossage, I think there's a pretty good reason he's not in. He had some really pisspoor seasons when you look at it. Overall his numbers look a lot like Smith's but without the silly save totals. Of course that was before the save was such a sought after stat.

 
By my personal HOF criteria, Hoffy doesn't make it.

By current HOF standards, Hoffy's a virtual lock. He'll past Lee Smith and become the all time leader in saves this September (lots of media attention), he'll get save #500 ~ the All Star break next year (more media), and he'll probably retire with somewhere between 550-600 saves.

Considering some of the god-awful Padre teams he played on in the 90s and early 00s, that's quite a career.

 
The HOF is about dominance.  Smith was in 7 All Star Games including 5 in a row in the early 90s, in which for three of those years he led the league in saves.

I think Smith also saved a lot more games in more than one inning, which helps explain the ERA and WHIP differences a bit.

Hoffman has better stats, but a lot of things that seem ot matter in HOF voting seem to go Smith's way.

I would say that Hoffman, to me, is a much better pitcher than Smith was, but I'm not sure how the HOF voters will see it.

EDIT: BTW, both of their postseason career numbers suck.
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I don't put any stock in All-Star appearances. None. It's useless.Saves are also somewhat inflated. Conversion rate is probably a good measure rather than raw saves. A closer can't control how many save opportunities he gets, afterall. I don't know of a good resource for blown saves data.

Smith had 1.26 IP/G whereas Hoffman is at 1.09 IP/G. That's a bit bigger for Smith who had more multi inning appearances, but nothing outrageous. Smith did have a handful of starts early in his career.

Hoffman's career ERA+ of 146 is far better than Smith's 132. Neither is spectacular in the context of today's closers. Rivera's is 197.

WHIP is really in Hoffman's favor. He wasn't wild like Smith was at times. Hoffman has a career 1.051 compared to Smith's 1.256.

Looking at Gossage, I think there's a pretty good reason he's not in. He had some really pisspoor seasons when you look at it. Overall his numbers look a lot like Smith's but without the silly save totals. Of course that was before the save was such a sought after stat.
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I was surprised by this too. I saw why he's not getting in to date...
 
By my personal HOF criteria, Hoffy doesn't make it.

By current HOF standards, Hoffy's a virtual lock. He'll past Lee Smith and become the all time leader in saves this September (lots of media attention), he'll get save #500 ~ the All Star break next year (more media), and he'll probably retire with somewhere between 550-600 saves.

Considering some of the god-awful Padre teams he played on in the 90s and early 00s, that's quite a career.
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This guarantees Hoffman is in! Good job, Tommy!
 
When evaluating HOF standards, what's the point in looking at things like WHIP? I'm not even sure K/9IP is very important. Those things are all useful prospectively for evaluating a player, but how is that relevant when evaluating how good of a career a guy had?

 
The HOF is about dominance. Smith was in 7 All Star Games including 5 in a row in the early 90s, in which for three of those years he led the league in saves.

I think Smith also saved a lot more games in more than one inning, which helps explain the ERA and WHIP differences a bit.

Hoffman has better stats, but a lot of things that seem ot matter in HOF voting seem to go Smith's way.

I would say that Hoffman, to me, is a much better pitcher than Smith was, but I'm not sure how the HOF voters will see it.

EDIT: BTW, both of their postseason career numbers suck.
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I don't put any stock in All-Star appearances. None. It's useless.
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:goodposting:
 
Don't people realize how difficult it is for a closer to get in? The only active closer who is a lock is Rivera -- and I can't think of anybody else offhand that's going to have a shot. Hoffman has had a great career, but the Pads haven't had much success, he's never had much chance to perform in the big moments, he's in a small market and his stats aren't exactly mind-blowing.

There's no way this guy goes into the HOF.

 
Don't people realize how difficult it is for a closer to get in? The only active closer who is a lock is Rivera -- and I can't think of anybody else offhand that's going to have a shot. Hoffman has had a great career, but the Pads haven't had much success, he's never had much chance to perform in the big moments, he's in a small market and his stats aren't exactly mind-blowing.

There's no way this guy goes into the HOF.
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I thought all closers with 400+ saves were in the HOF except Lee Smith?
 
Don't people realize how difficult it is for a closer to get in? The only active closer who is a lock is Rivera -- and I can't think of anybody else offhand that's going to have a shot. Hoffman has had a great career, but the Pads haven't had much success, he's never had much chance to perform in the big moments, he's in a small market and his stats aren't exactly mind-blowing.

There's no way this guy goes into the HOF.
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Well he did have a chance to pitch in the World Series in '98...How did that work out for him?

:ScottBrosius:

 
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