David Dodds
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Pre-draft questions, full rosters vs ADP, etc. Gain some insight on how to approach your Survivor Draft.
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Triathlon Leg 1 Posted (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Chase dominated this draft
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nerangers
Footballguy
Three Sets of handcuffs...nice indeed.Don't care for the QBs as much, unless you think Culpepper steps up.
Got a great starting kicker, and defense...two out of three of your starting WRs, and a good sleeper TE in Jerramy Stevens.
Nice Draft indeed Chase...
Need to look at the other teams...
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Thanks for the kind words guys. As for the QB position, as MT has said much better than I ever could, I think I'll be more than ok with that Rivers guy. The thing to remember is that QB scoring is just one out of 10 starting spots on a team.
Mike Anderson
Footballguy
Nice to see the ADP included. I think that is a great addition David.
Looks like I really only reached for 6 players (not counting the 4 without an ADP value
)
Very nice addition.
Looks like I really only reached for 6 players (not counting the 4 without an ADP value
)Very nice addition.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
whether or not one likes my squad will most likely depend on ones faith in my WRs. I'd like to be a tad deeper at WR...but who wouldn't. As I stated in my post-draft writeup I have the only roster with 8 WRs currently slated to start...although Caldwell and Williams are admittedly in position battles.
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Marvin88
Footballguy
Same here - first glance I like BnB too, but I have not looked real closely yet. I am stuck trying to figure out who Chase Stuart's first rd. draft pick was based on looking at his team.
Did he pick 12th? Or does he have inside information on the league allowing Arizona 7 linemen this year?
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
As you can tell from my pre-draft commentary, I was very surprised to see James fall to me at 11. And thrilled.I think Edge is really underrated this year. He turns 28 on August 1st, so age isn't an issue.Same here - first glance I like BnB too, but I have not looked real closely yet. I am stuck trying to figure out who Chase Stuart's first rd. draft pick was based on looking at his team.
In six seasons, he's been healthy for four of them. Those years he ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in yards from scrimmage. Three of those years he ranked in the top 5 in total TDs.
His YPC isn't very good, but it's certainly good enough. And yes the Cards RBs were bad last year, but a 35 year old Emmitt Smith ran for 3.5 YPC in the desert in 2004.
The '00 Chargers pulled off a neat feat: San Diego was last in rushing yards and last in rushing YPC. Tomlinson as a rookie ranked 7th.
The '98 Rams leading rusher had 313 yards. Horrible running team that ranked in the bottom three in yards and YPC. Marshall Faulk was the number 2 fantasy RB in '99.
Curtis Martin left the Patriots and joined the Jets in 1998. The '97 Jets were 28th in rushing yards per carry (30 teams). Martin ranked as the 7th best RB.
The '94 Colts ranked last in rushing yards and bottom five in rushing YPC. Marshall Faulk ranked as the 4th best RB.
The '88 Lions ranked last in rushing yards yards perry, rushing TDs and second to last in yards. Barry Sanders ranked as the 4th best runner in '89.
Edge will have lots of running room. He went to the only team with better WRs in the league to help keep defenses honest. He's been a top 6 RB in four different seasons already, including the last two.
nerangers
Footballguy
When I first looked at the teams quickly, Bass was first on my list...then I had to see if Aaron was joking about Chase's team....and did think his was the best. Suggs and Green also stood out, but they are the 5th and 6th RB in a start two...plus they were in rounds 19 and 21.What I was looking at was RBs First (since you start 2), WRs Second (since you start 3) plus a Flex that can be RB/WR/TE. QB was important, but like Chase pointed out, only 1/10 of the team starting roster.Yeah...despite me listing his squad as top 3, I listed the Green pick as one of the worst in the draft. :Xvery good except....Suggs and Green???
JayMan
Footballguy
Just for the fun of it...
The table below shows the average "reach" and "value" pick for each owner...
If a particular player had no ADP value - the number 264 (last pick) was marked for the sake of this statistic...
Obviously, needs / requirements / handcuffs / others play a bigger role than the ADP itself... but it just shows where this draft went...
Culcasi ---------- 15.73Legacy ----------- 4.18abrecher --------- 0.00BassNBrew -------- -5.32Stuart ----------- -5.41Duckboy ---------- -5.86Grant ------------ -6.50LHUCKS ----------- -6.91Fullback Fro ----- -7.23Shick! ----------- -7.91Anderson --------- -8.45Wimer ------------ -20.27With Culcasi's biggest "value picks" amongst the offensive categories (i.e. excluding Def / K) being Carson Palmer (91 over 38) and Braylon Edwards (163 over 118)...The overall biggest value pick was Stuart's Bears (179 over 85) while the biggest reach was LHUCKS's Cedric Wilson (124 over 264)
The draft itself, since only real FF experts were present, is showing alot of Def and K value picks - everyone sticking to that forte (pick them late)... while the "unknown" players (as Palmer and Edwards) due to injury or opportunities could be had with value...
The table below shows the average "reach" and "value" pick for each owner...
If a particular player had no ADP value - the number 264 (last pick) was marked for the sake of this statistic...
Obviously, needs / requirements / handcuffs / others play a bigger role than the ADP itself... but it just shows where this draft went...
Culcasi ---------- 15.73Legacy ----------- 4.18abrecher --------- 0.00BassNBrew -------- -5.32Stuart ----------- -5.41Duckboy ---------- -5.86Grant ------------ -6.50LHUCKS ----------- -6.91Fullback Fro ----- -7.23Shick! ----------- -7.91Anderson --------- -8.45Wimer ------------ -20.27With Culcasi's biggest "value picks" amongst the offensive categories (i.e. excluding Def / K) being Carson Palmer (91 over 38) and Braylon Edwards (163 over 118)...The overall biggest value pick was Stuart's Bears (179 over 85) while the biggest reach was LHUCKS's Cedric Wilson (124 over 264)
The draft itself, since only real FF experts were present, is showing alot of Def and K value picks - everyone sticking to that forte (pick them late)... while the "unknown" players (as Palmer and Edwards) due to injury or opportunities could be had with value...
Did he get to take his offensive lineman with him to Arizona?They had one of the worst O lines for rushing that has been seen in some time and didn't substantially upgrade (at least not yet) it with their one FA signing and one draft pick.As you can tell from my pre-draft commentary, I was very surprised to see James fall to me at 11. And thrilled.I think Edge is really underrated this year. He turns 28 on August 1st, so age isn't an issue.Same here - first glance I like BnB too, but I have not looked real closely yet. I am stuck trying to figure out who Chase Stuart's first rd. draft pick was based on looking at his team.
In six seasons, he's been healthy for four of them. Those years he ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in yards from scrimmage. Three of those years he ranked in the top 5 in total TDs.
His YPC isn't very good, but it's certainly good enough. And yes the Cards RBs were bad last year, but a 35 year old Emmitt Smith ran for 3.5 YPC in the desert in 2004.
The '00 Chargers pulled off a neat feat: San Diego was last in rushing yards and last in rushing YPC. Tomlinson as a rookie ranked 7th.
The '98 Rams leading rusher had 313 yards. Horrible running team that ranked in the bottom three in yards and YPC. Marshall Faulk was the number 2 fantasy RB in '99.
Curtis Martin left the Patriots and joined the Jets in 1998. The '97 Jets were 28th in rushing yards per carry (30 teams). Martin ranked as the 7th best RB.
The '94 Colts ranked last in rushing yards and bottom five in rushing YPC. Marshall Faulk ranked as the 4th best RB.
The '88 Lions ranked last in rushing yards yards perry, rushing TDs and second to last in yards. Barry Sanders ranked as the 4th best runner in '89.
Edge will have lots of running room. He went to the only team with better WRs in the league to help keep defenses honest. He's been a top 6 RB in four different seasons already, including the last two.
We will see if he outscores the other choice there - Rudi, but if he does I doubt it is by a substantial margin.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
How much better do you think Edge is than a 35 year old Emmit Smith?Did he get to take his offensive lineman with him to Arizona?They had one of the worst O lines for rushing that has been seen in some time and didn't substantially upgrade (at least not yet) it with their one FA signing and one draft pick.As you can tell from my pre-draft commentary, I was very surprised to see James fall to me at 11. And thrilled.I think Edge is really underrated this year. He turns 28 on August 1st, so age isn't an issue.Same here - first glance I like BnB too, but I have not looked real closely yet. I am stuck trying to figure out who Chase Stuart's first rd. draft pick was based on looking at his team.
In six seasons, he's been healthy for four of them. Those years he ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in yards from scrimmage. Three of those years he ranked in the top 5 in total TDs.
His YPC isn't very good, but it's certainly good enough. And yes the Cards RBs were bad last year, but a 35 year old Emmitt Smith ran for 3.5 YPC in the desert in 2004.
The '00 Chargers pulled off a neat feat: San Diego was last in rushing yards and last in rushing YPC. Tomlinson as a rookie ranked 7th.
The '98 Rams leading rusher had 313 yards. Horrible running team that ranked in the bottom three in yards and YPC. Marshall Faulk was the number 2 fantasy RB in '99.
Curtis Martin left the Patriots and joined the Jets in 1998. The '97 Jets were 28th in rushing yards per carry (30 teams). Martin ranked as the 7th best RB.
The '94 Colts ranked last in rushing yards and bottom five in rushing YPC. Marshall Faulk ranked as the 4th best RB.
The '88 Lions ranked last in rushing yards yards perry, rushing TDs and second to last in yards. Barry Sanders ranked as the 4th best runner in '89.
Edge will have lots of running room. He went to the only team with better WRs in the league to help keep defenses honest. He's been a top 6 RB in four different seasons already, including the last two.
We will see if he outscores the other choice there - Rudi, but if he does I doubt it is by a substantial margin.
Marvin88
Footballguy
That's all very interesting! I admit, I haven't checked to see where you have ranked Fitz and Boldin. Logic would say that you should have them lower than consensus if Edge is going to get the stats to justify a 1st rd. pick. Also, something I think few people are counting on - it does not seem out of the question for the AZ DEF to be top 10. That could cut into the OFF need to put up stats (score points).As you can tell from my pre-draft commentary, I was very surprised to see James fall to me at 11. And thrilled.I think Edge is really underrated this year. He turns 28 on August 1st, so age isn't an issue.Same here - first glance I like BnB too, but I have not looked real closely yet. I am stuck trying to figure out who Chase Stuart's first rd. draft pick was based on looking at his team.
In six seasons, he's been healthy for four of them. Those years he ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in yards from scrimmage. Three of those years he ranked in the top 5 in total TDs.
His YPC isn't very good, but it's certainly good enough. And yes the Cards RBs were bad last year, but a 35 year old Emmitt Smith ran for 3.5 YPC in the desert in 2004.
The '00 Chargers pulled off a neat feat: San Diego was last in rushing yards and last in rushing YPC. Tomlinson as a rookie ranked 7th.
The '98 Rams leading rusher had 313 yards. Horrible running team that ranked in the bottom three in yards and YPC. Marshall Faulk was the number 2 fantasy RB in '99.
Curtis Martin left the Patriots and joined the Jets in 1998. The '97 Jets were 28th in rushing yards per carry (30 teams). Martin ranked as the 7th best RB.
The '94 Colts ranked last in rushing yards and bottom five in rushing YPC. Marshall Faulk ranked as the 4th best RB.
The '88 Lions ranked last in rushing yards yards perry, rushing TDs and second to last in yards. Barry Sanders ranked as the 4th best runner in '89.
Edge will have lots of running room. He went to the only team with better WRs in the league to help keep defenses honest. He's been a top 6 RB in four different seasons already, including the last two.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I have Boldin slightly higher than the average ranking and Fitz slightly lower. They're pretty interchangeable IMO, and I'd probably rather have Boldin. But don't get me wrong, Fitz is :money:
Marvin88
Footballguy
So you have Boldin 7-ish? and Fitz 5-ish?, Edge top 8-ish? and the potential for (at least) an improved AZ DEF. To compare, I remember Edge around the 5th-7th ranked RB (consensus) last year, Marvin was consensus 2nd-3rd, and Wayne 10-11. And these rankings were off of a Manning 50 + TD year. Your preseason AZ RB/WR's projections are more than last season's Colts RB/WR's projections. WOW!
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I don't see the wow factor. Edge's ADP last year was RB4, Harrison was WR4 and Wayne was WR9. I would put Edge at RB6, and Boldin and Fitz in the top 8 or 9, so it's pretty similar. Of course, I don't have Bryant Johnson as my WR32 or Leonard Pope as TE7.Dodds' projections of Fitz and Boldin as 6 and 8 are very good, and he's got Edge as RB12. If Edge averages 4.0 YPC instead of 3.7 and scores three more TDs, he'd be 1 FP behind LaMont Jordan for RB7.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Just read through all the pre-draft questions.
Excellent jobs on those guys.
Very interesting reading.
im gonna go over the draft and post what I think about each team in a few days
Excellent jobs on those guys.
Very interesting reading.
im gonna go over the draft and post what I think about each team in a few days
Marvin88
Footballguy
Yeah.....I don't know....I just can't see all those Cards getting all though stats. I gotta believe if Edge does well it has to eat into Bouldin and Fitz, but my guess is the other way around and that's with a healthy Warner. We'll see what happens. Good luck!I don't see the wow factor. Edge's ADP last year was RB4, Harrison was WR4 and Wayne was WR9. I would put Edge at RB6, and Boldin and Fitz in the top 8 or 9, so it's pretty similar. Of course, I don't have Bryant Johnson as my WR32 or Leonard Pope as TE7.Dodds' projections of Fitz and Boldin as 6 and 8 are very good, and he's got Edge as RB12. If Edge averages 4.0 YPC instead of 3.7 and scores three more TDs, he'd be 1 FP behind LaMont Jordan for RB7.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Thanks Marvin, I'll definitely need the luck.For what it's worth I don't think a whole lot of studies have been done proving that a good RB hurts his WR's receiving numbers, and I'm sure that no studies have been done proving that Edge hurts his WR's receiving numbers.Yeah.....I don't know....I just can't see all those Cards getting all though stats. I gotta believe if Edge does well it has to eat into Bouldin and Fitz, but my guess is the other way around and that's with a healthy Warner. We'll see what happens. Good luck!I don't see the wow factor. Edge's ADP last year was RB4, Harrison was WR4 and Wayne was WR9. I would put Edge at RB6, and Boldin and Fitz in the top 8 or 9, so it's pretty similar. Of course, I don't have Bryant Johnson as my WR32 or Leonard Pope as TE7.Dodds' projections of Fitz and Boldin as 6 and 8 are very good, and he's got Edge as RB12. If Edge averages 4.0 YPC instead of 3.7 and scores three more TDs, he'd be 1 FP behind LaMont Jordan for RB7.
rzrback77
Footballguy
I am very curious about some of Mark Wimer's picks. I know that he took Peyton Manning early and that put his RBs behind the 8-ball so to speak. But then taking Gonzo as well and waiting to take his first WR at 5.07 and grabbing A Bryant with an ADP of 131. Wow!
I also understand that WRs were much more valuable in this format, but almost every one he took seemed early to me.
How did the message board guys get all the good draft slots?
I also understand that WRs were much more valuable in this format, but almost every one he took seemed early to me.
How did the message board guys get all the good draft slots?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Draft order was done by lottery.
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