Trip’s top 3 Most Overvalued RBs – Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

After participating in a ton of online money drafts and doing a fair amount of research, the following are my overvalued players pre-camp.   (ADP per FF calculator, PPR 12 team leagues)

1.  Melvin Gordon – ADP RB#7 1.10 Overall

Gordon is a solid RB, but he’s not the 7th best RB in fantasy football this year and there are several reasons why.  First, his stats/metrics are average.  He’s averaged 3.9 YPC over the past few years and his DVOA last year was -6 and change.   His value the past few years has been heavily based on his double digit TDs which is closer to his ceiling than his floor.  On the plus side he did have 57 receptions last year so that raises his floor.   Lastly, Gordon is an upright runner with a slender build that missed 5 total games in his first two seasons.  These aren’t reasons to ignore Gordon, but they are collectively reasons to bump him down your rankings after RBs like Fournette, Hunt, Cook and others that I believe have higher ceilings and/or a lower risk profile.

2.  Jerick McKinnon – ADP RB#14 2.10 Overall

So yeah, easily the most overvalued player this year at any position in my opinion.  So let’s just start with the fact that McKinnon has never had 160 carries despite having played for four seasons.  The Vikings liked him so much they drafted Dalvin Cook and brought on Latavius Murray and let McKinnon walk…not exactly a strong showing of faith in McKinnon.   Then there are the stats which show a decline in efficiency the past few years, DVOA, YPC, yards after contact etc. etc…all point towards a very average if not below average starting running back.   Lastly, we can look at his competition in Matt Breida and Joe Williams.  As I highlighted in my undervalued thread, Breida’s stats look much more promising not to mention he has a year in the offense.  Joe Williams was specifically targeted by the Niners in the 2017 draft but succumbed to injury early on so we didn't get to see a lot of Williams last year.  There is a real chance Williams competes for meaningful touches this year.   The smart money is fading McKinnon.  I’ve been hoarding Matt Breida shares all best ball season.  You won’t find McKinnon on a single one of my teams.  HARD PASS.

3.  LeSean McCoy – ADP RB#13 2.09 Overall

I actually don’t have a problem with ranking McCoy the #13 RB, what I do think is a bit off is the overall ADP of middle to late second round.  McCoy went from 5.4 in 2016 to 4.0 YPC last year and the offense  doesn’t look like it’s going to take a leap in productivity with the loss of Tyrod Taylor.  McCoy turns 30 in July and it's well documented that history is on your side if you fade 30 year old RBs.  McCoy's DVOA slipped to -10.8 at the age of 29.  McCoy is a Hall of Famer and a true bellcow back, but his age and the circumstances around him make him a risky play given he only scored 8 TDs last year, a number which isn’t likely to improve much if at all.  You are really counting on his volume to justify this high of a draft position and counting on volume from 30 year old backs is a losing proposition.  Take another position in the 2nd round over McCoy.

 

[shadrap]

mostly agree except Gordon is helped by a great offense which I think puts him up where he should be.  Your take on him though is right on.

thanx.

 

[Elevencents]

Can’t argue with any of those. Won’t be drafting any of them myself. Good stuff. 

 

[mcd]

2.  Jerick McKinnon – ADP RB#14 2.10 Overall

So yeah, easily the most overvalued player this year at any position in my opinion.  So let’s just start with the fact that McKinnon has never had 160 carries despite having played for four seasons.  The Vikings liked him so much they drafted Dalvin Cook and brought on Latavius Murray and let McKinnon walk…not exactly a strong showing of faith in McKinnon.   Then there are the stats which show a decline in efficiency the past few years, DVOA, YPC, yards after contact etc. etc…all point towards a very average if not below average starting running back.   Lastly, we can look at his competition in Matt Breida and Joe Williams.  As I highlighted in my undervalued thread, Breida’s stats look much more promising not to mention he has a year in the offense.  Joe Williams was specifically targeted by the Niners in the 2017 draft but succumbed to injury.  There is a real chance Williams competes for meaningful touches as well.   The smart money if fading McKinnon.  I’ve been hoarding Matt Breida shares all best ball season.  You won’t find McKinnon on a single one of my teams.  HARD PASS.

You really have to look into the season to see why McKinnon's numbers were what they were, and realize the Vikings had already made up their mind that McKinnon was not a starting RB. The 1st 4 weeks of the season Dalvin Cook was given the starting load and averaged 12.4 points in my league, good for the #10 RB spot. He was injured and McKinnon was the full time back from week 5-9 (including his bye week), in which time he averaged 16.18 points per start and was the #3 RB. The team went undefeated during the McKinnon workhorse stretch. The Vikings then were ready to bring Murray back and give him the starting roll, using McKinnon in a timeshare as the #2 back.

I'm a little more confident that Shanahan will use McKinnon to his abilities than the Vikings, who had clearly pigeon-holed McKInnon as a backup. If things go really bad in SF, McKinnon could fall out of the top 20 RBs (does it even matter, the difference between RB15 & 24 was less than 1 point in my league), but if things go as Shanahan envisions he could be a top 8 back, a difference maker. That's the kind of RB I'm looking for at RB 14.

 

[TripItUp]

You really have to look into the season to see why McKinnon's numbers were what they were.

what about the season before that?  Fool me once...

The fantasy community seems to be pinning a lot on Shannahan turning water into wine...maybe he will, maybe he won't...I'm not willing to risk my 2nd round pick to find out.

 

[Borden]

Thanks for these threads @TripItUp . Whether I agree or disagree your write ups and reasoning are always worthy of your opinion.

 

[Tanner9919]

Trip , nice list again..

can I add Kareem Hunt?

Hunt rushed for over half of his 2017 rush yards, .in just 3 games!!  I know, I know, you can't take away games, its a cumulative effort over 16 games. but the guy is got his stats in bunches...outside of those 3 games, he rushed for just 649 yards.  not to mention that in KC's 6 losses, he rushed for a ho-hum 275 yards on 74 carries , with 0 TD, 12.3 att/gm, 45.8 yards.gm..he obviously gets his stats in games in which KC is winning..

so whats the problem with that? Vegas thinks KC wins 7.5 games this season, down 2.5 from last year..thats 2.5 more losses to consider, more poor play from Hunt.

. the AFC West has gotten ( significantly) better, what with the additions in Denver, Gruden in Oaktown, and SD's arms race to build an incredible secondary and defense in general.

and then you add in Spence Ware who MOST SURELY will eat into Hunt's #'s, and a quasi-rookie QB. plus, is there a regression due here? 

caveat emptor.

 

[Tau837]

1.  Melvin Gordon – ADP RB#7 1.10 Overall

Gordon is a solid RB, but he’s not the 7th best RB in fantasy football this year and there are several reasons why.

I'm not sure if I would take Gordon at 1.10. He might be very slightly overvalued. Not by enough to land him on an overvalued list IMO.

Gordon is a solid RB, but he’s not the 7th best RB in fantasy football this year and there are several reasons why.

As a frame of reference, here are his finishes the past 2 seasons in PPR:

2016: #7 RB in total points, #5 RB in ppg
2017: #5 RB in total points, #6 RB in ppg

So he has been a top 7 RB for 2 seasons in a row. That doesn't guarantee anything for this year, and Barkley will presumably slot in to the top 7 this season. But it is still impressive. The only other RB that has been top 7 the past 2 seasons in both total points and ppg is Bell. That's it.

First, his stats/metrics are average.  He’s averaged 3.9 YPC over the past few years and his DVOA last year was -6 and change.

This really doesn't matter, since fantasy points are awarded based on yards, not yards per carry (or DVOA). Normally, the issue with a poor ypc would be risk of losing opportunities, but Gordon was #3 in the NFL with 284 rushing attempts last season, despite averaging 3.9 ypc.

Furthermore, there is reason to believe his ypc will improve this season, since the OL should be significantly better, particularly at run blocking. The Chargers signed C Mike Pouncey, who will be a huge upgrade over last year's starter, Spencer Pulley, who was the worst center in the league. Last season's second round pick, Forrest Lamp, will return from missing all of last season due to a preseason injury, and he will start at RG, which should be another huge upgrade. This is important, since IMO Gordon has proven that he is a RB who gets what is blocked and doesn't generate much on his own.

His value the past few years has been heavily based on his double digit TDs which is closer to his ceiling than his floor.

This is a positive, not a negative. He has had 12 TDs for 2 seasons in a row, so there is no reason to view his TDs last season as a fluke. More importantly, he was #4 in the NFL with 342 touches last season and tied for #2 with 367 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets)... TDs are going to come hand in hand with that kind of workload. And that carried over into the red zone -- he was #3 in the NFL in both red zone rushing attempts and red zone opportunities. He plays in a very good offense that should continue to provide him opportunities.

What his value has really been based on is volume, as I have described here. And there is every reason to expect that volume to continue. HC Anthony Lynn was a NFL RB for 7 seasons and a NFL RB coach for 14 seasons before taking the Chargers HC job. He believes in a strong running game, and he believes in workhorse RBs. And the team really did not bring in any competition for Gordon this offseason... just 7th round draft pick Justin Jackson. The team also emphasized its commitment to Gordon this offseason by picking up his 5th year option for 2019.

For the reasons I have posted, Gordon represents as safe a pick as you can find at the 1/2 turn. He has a very high floor and a very high ceiling. What more could you want at that point in the draft?

 

[pbandy1]

I agree on Gordon but disagree strongly on McKinnon. Check out these facts from a recent Matthew Berry article:

37. Jerick McKinnon is one of six running backs with at least 150 carries and 40 receptions each of the past two years.

37a. During those two years, McKinnon averaged 31.4 snaps a game.

37b. During Jimmy Garoppolo's five starts last season, Carlos Hyde averaged 44.6 snaps per game.

38. Last season, the 49ers ranked top five in the NFL in RB receptions, RB targets and RB receiving yards.

39. During Kyle Shanahan's two years in Atlanta, the Falcons were eighth in RB receptions, fifth in RB receiving yards, led the NFL in RB red zone receiving yards and were second in RB red zone receptions.

40. In three of the past four seasons, the offense that had Shanahan on the sidelines has ranked above average in goal-to-go rush percentage.

Unless Joe Williams miraculously becomes what the 49ers envisioned when drafting him last year, I am all about the Jerick McKinnon hype train and will gladly draft him over CMC.

 

[Tau837]

Trip , nice list again..

can I add Kareem Hunt?

Hunt rushed for over half of his 2017 rush yards, .in just 3 games!!  I know, I know, you can't take away games, its a cumulative effort over 16 games. but the guy is got his stats in bunches...outside of those 3 games, he rushed for just 649 yards.  not to mention that in KC's 6 losses, he rushed for a ho-hum 275 yards on 74 carries , with 0 TD, 12.3 att/gm, 45.8 yards.gm..he obviously gets his stats in games in which KC is winning..

so whats the problem with that? Vegas thinks KC wins 7.5 games this season, down 2.5 from last year..thats 2.5 more losses to consider, more poor play from Hunt.

. the AFC West has gotten ( significantly) better, what with the additions in Denver, Gruden in Oaktown, and SD's arms race to build an incredible secondary and defense in general.

and then you add in Spence Ware who MOST SURELY will eat into Hunt's #'s, and a quasi-rookie QB. plus, is there a regression due here? 

caveat emptor.

The bolded statement is incorrect. His top 3 rushing games were vs. the Chargers (twice) and the Patriots. He rushed for 475 yards in those games, which was ~36% of his season total of 1327 rushing yards.

Just in his 2 games against the Chargers, Hunt had 327 rushing yards (~25% of his season total), 389 YFS (22%), 8 receptions (15%), 2 rushing TDs (25%), and 1 receiving TD (33%).

But he gets to play them twice again. Contrary to your assertion, the Chargers did not do much to address their run defense. They drafted 4 defensive players that should help a bit, but they only drafted 1 interior DL, and many felt that 3rd round pick was a reach. They should have the best pass defense in the NFL, but it's hard to predict whether or not their run defense will once again be one of the worst.

 

[Interseptopus]

Gordon's knee is giving him problems. just as I was worried about long ago but ridiculed over when he was having early success in the NFL. in the end he will be the epitome of what I mean when I try to educate people that the positives from microfracture aren't meant to last.

by the way, I like this list. I think you could add 2 more

 

[Tau837]

Gordon's knee is giving him problems. just as I was worried about long ago but ridiculed over when he was having early success in the NFL. in the end he will be the epitome of what I mean when I try to educate people that the positives from microfracture aren't meant to last.

by the way, I like this list. I think you could add 2 more

Gordon's knee gave him problems early last season after offseason surgery. He played through it and finished as RB5.

I am not aware of any reports this offseason about his knee. A Google search turns up nothing since September 2017. Are you implying that you have more recent info on his knee?

 

[Interseptopus]

Gordon's knee gave him problems early last season after offseason surgery. He played through it and finished as RB5.

I am not aware of any reports this offseason about his knee. A Google search turns up nothing since September 2017. Are you implying that you have more recent info on his knee?

I've given multiple words of advice regarding microfracture surgery. details on the effectiveness and longevity. you can search in the forums for it or I can type it all out again when I'm at a computer if you wish. 

bottom line, microfracture is a mostly short term solution to a career threatening problem (depending on size and location of the legion). it is not the same as regular joint cartilage and therefore doesnt last. I avoid any player in dynasty who has had this surgery. 

 

[Tau837]

I've given multiple words of advice regarding microfracture surgery. details on the effectiveness and longevity. you can search in the forums for it or I can type it all out again when I'm at a computer if you wish. 

bottom line, microfracture is a mostly short term solution to a career threatening problem (depending on size and location of the legion). it is not the same as regular joint cartilage and therefore doesnt last. I avoid any player in dynasty who has had this surgery. 

OK, so you really had no basis to say "Gordon's knee is giving him problems," implying that he is currently having problems with it. You were really just saying yet again that you think it will give him problems. You were speculating. That's what I figured.

Bottom line, this thread is about 2018, and there are no indications at this time that it will be a problem for him in 2018. If you find information to the contrary, by all means post it and source it. Otherwise, there isn't much need to repeat your past speculation, and it is disingenuous to post it as if it is fact.

 

[Kam2]

I like this list. I have never owned Melvin Gordon and I would rather have never jumped on the train than be getting off too late. 

McCoy is a favorite of mine but Buffalo is going to be horrendous this year and he is at that cliff in terms of age. At almost an identical ADP I would much prefer Devonta Freeman.

McKinnon is a SPARQ-God but his hype train (along with the 49ers in general) is getting out of control and he will be seeping into the back-end of the 1st Round of PPR drafts by August. 

One guy I thought for sure who would make this list is Jordan Howard. In PPR he is going well ahead of Kenyan Drake who figures to get a much larger market share of touches than Howard does. He is also being drafted ahead of Dion Lewis, Rashaad Penny, and Alex Collins and they all figure to get significantly more touches in the passing game than Howard.

 

[pbandy1]

I like this list. I have never owned Melvin Gordon and I would rather have never jumped on the train than be getting off too late. 

McCoy is a favorite of mine but Buffalo is going to be horrendous this year and he is at that cliff in terms of age. At almost an identical ADP I would much prefer Devonta Freeman.

McKinnon is a SPARQ-God but his hype train (along with the 49ers in general) is getting out of control and he will be seeping into the back-end of the 1st Round of PPR drafts by August. 

One guy I thought for sure who would make this list is Jordan Howard. In PPR he is going well ahead of Kenyan Drake who figures to get a much larger market share of touches than Howard does. He is also being drafted ahead of Dion Lewis, Rashaad Penny, and Alex Collins and they all figure to get significantly more touches in the passing game than Howard.

think McKinnon has stabilized around mid to late 2nd which IMO is fine for him.

 

[Interseptopus]

OK, so you really had no basis to say "Gordon's knee is giving him problems," implying that he is currently having problems with it. You were really just saying yet again that you think it will give him problems. You were speculating. That's what I figured.

Bottom line, this thread is about 2018, and there are no indications at this time that it will be a problem for him in 2018. If you find information to the contrary, by all means post it and source it. Otherwise, there isn't much need to repeat your past speculation, and it is disingenuous to post it as if it is fact.

lol his knee isn't 100%. it never was following surgery. he isn't going to be able to handle full workload without missing more time due to knee surgery. 

I'll be sure to post and cite for you when it becomes regular news. by then itll be too late. if I were you I'd sell now. 

 

[TripItUp]

One guy I thought for sure who would make this list is Jordan Howard. In PPR he is going well ahead of Kenyan Drake who figures to get a much larger market share of touches than Howard does. He is also being drafted ahead of Dion Lewis, Rashaad Penny, and Alex Collins and they all figure to get significantly more touches in the passing game than Howard.

I'm neutral on Howard at his current ADP.  A lot will depend on how effective the new coaching regime/offense will be.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

lol his knee isn't 100%. it never was following surgery. he isn't going to be able to handle full workload without missing more time due to knee surgery. 

I'll be sure to post and cite for you when it becomes regular news. by then itll be too late. if I were you I'd sell now. 

Gordon’s knee is 110%. It is made of iron. Welded by steel. He will be able to handle a full work load this year without missing any time (just like last) due to the strength of said knee

ill be sure to post and cite for you when it becomes regular news

 

[gianmarco]

Gordon's knee is giving him problems. just as I was worried about long ago but ridiculed over when he was having early success in the NFL. in the end he will be the epitome of what I mean when I try to educate people that the positives from microfracture aren't meant to last.

by the way, I like this list. I think you could add 2 more

Key words: long ago.

He's now entering his 4th year and has put up more top 10 fantasy seasons than most RBs do in their career.  

You may be right that it ends up shortening his career compared to what it could have been. But he's already paid dividends and the doomsday proclamations have yet to be born out after 4 years. In dynasty, that's an eternity. 

Anyone who ignored you and used him his first 3 years could still sell for a pretty penny today. His value is likely to start trending down anyway in the next year or 2 by virtue of age and dynasty owners always looking to get younger.

I'd stop tooting your horn on this because so far he's done just fine by his owners.

 

[JetMaxx]

lol his knee isn't 100%. it never was following surgery. he isn't going to be able to handle full workload without missing more time due to knee surgery. 

I'll be sure to post and cite for you when it becomes regular news. by then itll be too late. if I were you I'd sell now. 

I’m not doubting your prognosis but it comes across rather irresponsibly when you say “Gordon’s knee is giving him problems” when your follow up to questions about the statement is just wait and see. 

 

[Borden]

.

 

[Snorkelson]

Mixon- rb 16, 27 overall

3.5 ypc last year, only had 3 games where he avg more than 4.1 ypc (1 of which was on only 6 carries.) Gio still there to take passing work. Pretty much the same bengals team. Was part of an effective timeshare in college, his running mate (Perine) has not looked the part in the nfl either and has been all but written off, leading me to believe their production was a product of oline or weak defense. Overhyped, overdiscussed, a player a lot of people took a stance on due to off field issues and are sticking to their assessment which is holding his value for now. I’d rather take kelce or any number of WRs around there- rb 16 out of 27 picks (ffpros)- lots of wr better than rb16. 

Royce freeman, rb 33, 84 overall

First, I love freeman. I started the freeman thread, so I’ve been on the train from day 1, and moreso with his landing spot. However, he may share time to start the year, and maybe even the first year or two of his career. I don’t really hate the draft position here either, so maybe not overrated, but I found it odd that Booker was so much further down the list- rb 44/118 overall. With the info we have at this point, I’d slot them both around rb 35-36 mark, with booker possibly getting the edge in redraft this year unless freeman unseats him in camp. It’s one to watch. 

Guice- rb 22, 44 overall

I don’t think he’s going to come in and get 250 carries. Thompson was legit until he got injured, so passing work will be limited. I don’t see this offense scoring a ton at the goal line. The oline is healthier this year, but outside of that I don’t see why people are still in love with guice. He’s a tough runner and all but the situation stinks imo. The receiving corps is not scary (unless you’re a fan) and the qb historically plays conservatively. Will he succeed facing 8 in the box? 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Gordon IMO actually may be a tad undervalued.  He’s a volume beast, impacts the passing game, and has 24 TD’s in his last 2 seasons in 29 games).  He hits the checkbox trifecta of RB1.

McKinnon/McCoy - agree, but I suspect McCoy’s ADP will drop in the coming weeks.

The 5th Round seems to be the place where drafters are taking fliers (Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Sony Michel) where path to playing time is somewhat murky.  I get that in the procession of RB drafting, they may be next man up, but ahead of Russell Wilson/Tom Brady/Drew Brees...is rich.

 

[TripItUp]

Gordon IMO actually may be a tad undervalued.  He’s a volume beast, impacts the passing game, and has 24 TD’s in his last 2 seasons in 29 games).  He hits the checkbox trifecta of RB1.

My main concern with Gordon is that he’s being valued at his ceiling and not his median.  Last year was a perfect season for him and that’s what he’s being valued at.

Id rather have several rbs going after him.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

My main concern with Gordon is that he’s being valued at his ceiling and not his median.  Last year was a perfect season for him and that’s what he’s being valued at.

Id rather have several rbs going after him.

I’m not so sure of that.

1) There is no chance Gordon can’t improve his YPC?  Even a bump up to 4.2 could yield another 100 yards rushing.

2) His per game production was actually better in 2016.

3) Chargers signed Mike Pouncey and get back Forrest Lamp (their 2017 2nd rounder who tore his ACL last TC).  Paired with Okung and Dan Fenley and now that OL looks pretty good.

 

[Tau837]

lol his knee isn't 100%. it never was following surgery. he isn't going to be able to handle full workload without missing more time due to knee surgery. 

I'll be sure to post and cite for you when it becomes regular news. by then itll be too late. if I were you I'd sell now. 

This is from a post of yours in the Gordon thread last offseason:

if he can put together a 15-16 game season I will gladly jump on board this train. Being a WI fan I want him to succeed

Well, he put together a 16 game season, but apparently you are not going to change your tune about him.

You were wrong about him in your posts last offseason. Are you just going to keep posting this stuff every year until eventually he gets hurt again and you can proudly state that you were right?

 

[Interseptopus]

This is from a post of yours in the Gordon thread last offseason:

Well, he put together a 16 game season, but apparently you are not going to change your tune about him.

You were wrong about him in your posts last offseason. Are you just going to keep posting this stuff every year until eventually he gets hurt again and you can proudly state that you were right?

yeah, I didn't think he would put together a 16 game season, so I felt safe saying that. I was wrong. he had microfracture surgery. hes on my permanent avoid list. same with Ajayi who I owned for 2 years in my keeper league and am happy to be off that train. 

these guys have an earlier expiration date than other players. as gianmarco said, hes already paid dividends for his owners, and thays great. I liked him a lot coming out of WI. I was confident he would do well in the NFL. I'm also confident his end is closer than most people think. I dont need to toot my own horn. history, anatomy, and research is on my side. I'm trying to bring info to those who aren't as knowledgable in these areas and just think all surgeries fix people back to normal. people can take it or leave it. doesnt matter to me. 

best of luck to all Gordon owners. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

yeah, I didn't think he would put together a 16 game season, so I felt safe saying that. I was wrong. he had microfracture surgery. hes on my permanent avoid list. same with Ajayi who I owned for 2 years in my keeper league and am happy to be off that train. 

these guys have an earlier expiration date than other players. as gianmarco said, hes already paid dividends for his owners, and thays great. I liked him a lot coming out of WI. I was confident he would do well in the NFL. I'm also confident his end is closer than most people think. I dont need to toot my own horn. history, anatomy, and research is on my side. I'm trying to bring info to those who aren't as knowledgable in these areas and just think all surgeries fix people back to normal. people can take it or leave it. doesnt matter to me. 

best of luck to all Gordon owners. 

So were you lying when you said you would get on the train if he put together a 15-16 game season?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Imo gordon is properly valued agree with mckinnon being over valued....and i see mccoy having an uphill battle this year

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Nice list overall.  I do love these threads because they invite discussions for and against specific players at their ADP's.   Regardless of what side you are--I think the discussion that these threads create are a win-win for everybody.   

My only question mark on the list would be Gordon.  I don't know if he's over valued--I think his price is probably about right. With that said--I just don't know if he excites me at where he's going.   At his current price--I think I'd probably be more excited about drafting a guy like Deandre Hopkins or Odell Beckham.  In a ten team league--I'd much rather go for one of those WR's and grabbing a guy like Hunt or Fournette to couple with them at the 2.1 spot.   I think that I agree with the assessment that Gordon might be overvalued at his ADP--but for 10 team league formats.  

However, in 12 team or larger leagues--the decision is tougher as to me there seems to be a pretty big drop off at the RB position at the ADP that your second round pick will be.  If you went with a guy like Hopkins in the first--you might be stuck going for a guy like Davante Freeman in the second.  I think in a 12 team league at the 10 spot--perhaps a guy like Gordon/ Hunt makes sense in the first--as you would be able to couple him with  a very good WR in the second.  In leagues larger than 12 teams--I think the dropoff in the 2nd rd rb's would be even larger--so grabbing a guy like Gordon at 1.10 isn't a bad play at all.  His value seems to make more sense in 12+ team leagues in my opinion. 

 

[Interseptopus]

So were you lying when you said you would get on the train if he put together a 15-16 game season?

if you're looking for a gotcha post, great. I'm not into that but many are. and that's fine. when you offer a lot of meaningful information, there are many who dont like it for some reason and try to cut you down. is that what this forum is for? 

for the record, if you go to the next page, you can see where I raise concerns about his surgery. also yes, I'd jump on in redraft at the right price. I'd likely pass round 1. I'd love him as a rb2. he will still make plays and be an important part of that offense but in dynasty I'd sell him in a heartbeat. 

I can dig up plenty of posts prior to that one, where I state how much of an unfavorable view I have toward microfracture surgery and how I try to avoid all with it.

People can take our leave what I have to say. its my understanding that many here dont have the education and know all of these kinds of injuries, recoveries, and prognosis for them. many of those individuals appreciate the info. some dont like information of topics they dont know as well. odd, but to each their own! 

Have a great 4th Alex!

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm a little more confident that Shanahan will use McKinnon to his abilities than the Vikings, who had clearly pigeon-holed McKInnon as a backup. If things go really bad in SF, McKinnon could fall out of the top 20 RBs (does it even matter, the difference between RB15 & 24 was less than 1 point in my league), but if things go as Shanahan envisions he could be a top 8 back, a difference maker. That's the kind of RB I'm looking for at RB 14.

What abilities does McKinnon have that the Vikings were under utilizing?

The Vikings were one of the highest percentage of outside zone run calls in the league last year. Which is what Shanahan runs a lot of as well.

So what is going to be different? 

The volume perhaps? I don't think the frequency of how many plays he gets is related to his abilities. I think the Vikings would have used McKinnon more if they thought it would help them win. The scheme is the same as the 49ers.

If McKinnon goes off then I will say the Vikings didn't use him enough. I certainly felt that way at times during last season and even when Peterson was healthy, there were times I would have liked to see McKinnon playing instead of him. It didn't happen though and I have to give the Vikings coaches the benefit of the doubt about why they did not use Jet more.

It certainly wasn't because they didn't want to win.

 

[Interseptopus]

I am also concerned about 2 others on this list. Melvin Gordon and Travis Kelce. The history behind successful microfracture surgery is not very promising. In fact, the history of success following this procedure at the NFL level is pretty much Travis Kelce and Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon is more of a concern for me due to the nature of his position, but he is someone to watch as people are voting for him. I think he is a very valuable RB, however I fear his microfracture surgery (which is not a permanent fix for this level- I can go into details on that if anyone wishes to ask or cares to PM me) may eventually "run out" and he may have to go to a part time role or just retire early. 
 

I am more concerned about his history of needing microfracture surgery. That is bad news for his longevity and life-expectancy as a starting NFL RB

@Alex P Keaton Here ya go. these are just 2. feel free to search for more input  I've given on this topic if you really want to see if my opinion on microfracture has changed at all since I first posted on it. happy 4th.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

@Alex P Keaton Here ya go. these are just 2. feel free to search for more input  I've given on this topic if you really want to see if my opinion on microfracture has changed at all since I first posted on it. happy 4th.

Hey Dr D - please don't misunderstand my comment.   I'm a big fan of your perspectives and appreciate your contribution to the board.  We all write stuff that, in retrospect, we might not still agree with.  You are probably right about Gordon's knee and his long-term health.  It seems weird that you wrote something about changing your view if he played 15-16 games, and now you aren't standing by that comment.  But I get it - you are basically saying you don't see the knee holding up.  Probably right.  But that also means your 15-16 game comment, while sincere at the time, wasn't what you actually were thinking subconsciously.

 

[mcd]

If McKinnon goes off then I will say the Vikings didn't use him enough. I certainly felt that way at times during last season and even when Peterson was healthy, there were times I would have liked to see McKinnon playing instead of him. It didn't happen though and I have to give the Vikings coaches the benefit of the doubt about why they did not use Jet more.

It certainly wasn't because they didn't want to win.

Not trying to say that at all, as when he was the primary running back they were 4-0. I just have much more faith in Shanahan, as he has shown in previous stops that he doesn't have a problem with using a 210 pound back as a workhorse, giving a similar style back a full plate as both a runner, receiver and goal line back. I also believe Shanahan is a much more creative play caller than Shurmur has ever shown himself to be. If McKinnon can't handle the load he ends up in a timeshare (like last season) and settles at RB #20. If he is what Shanahan envisions, his floor is what Hyde put together last year as RB 10.

I just disagree strongly that he could be considered "the most over valued player this year at any position." Even if he drops down to RB #24, historically you are losing about 1 point a game from the guy drafted RB #14. I take that risk all day long when his upside is top 8.

McKinnon, Gordon and McCoy are all 3 guys that are scheduled to be the primary runners, will catch a load of passes and do not have a goal line vulture. Those are the 3 most important factors in a successful season. Maybe they don't meet expectations, but going into a season you can't ask for a much better situation. I understand that McKinnon's never been that guy, McCoy has a crappy supporting cast and Gordon has some injury/issues

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Trip , nice list again..

can I add Kareem Hunt?

Hunt rushed for over half of his 2017 rush yards, .in just 3 games!!  I know, I know, you can't take away games, its a cumulative effort over 16 games. but the guy is got his stats in bunches...outside of those 3 games, he rushed for just 649 yards.

Bad data and a bad stat.

Firstly, as was mentioned, the data is wrong.  He ran for 36% of his rush yards in his best 3 games.  Without those three games he ran for 852 yards, not 649.

Secondly, bad stat.  Another one of these silly things where people throw out a stat that looks bad on the surface but is actually pretty normal in the context of running the same study on everyone else.  In Hunt's case, it's actually quite a bit better than normal.  Remove Leonard Fournette's 3 best games and he ran for 618 yards.  Remove Bell's 3 best games and he ran for 834 yards.

If you removed everyone's 3 best games it would still leave Hunt as the 2nd leading rushing the NFL in the remaining games, a few yards behind Todd Gurley for #1.  Context.

 

[Interseptopus]

Hey Dr D - please don't misunderstand my comment.   I'm a big fan of your perspectives and appreciate your contribution to the board.  We all write stuff that, in retrospect, we might not still agree with.  You are probably right about Gordon's knee and his long-term health.  It seems weird that you wrote something about changing your view if he played 15-16 games, and now you aren't standing by that comment.  But I get it - you are basically saying you don't see the knee holding up.  Probably right.  But that also means your 15-16 game comment, while sincere at the time, wasn't what you actually were thinking subconsciously.

it all depends on value. for this year, right price, yeah I'd still take him even though hes on my avoid list. I took Kelce because the value was there after his surgery. I dont think he will fall off the face of the earth this year. likewise I dont think he will be a top 8 rb. If I could land him round 2 in redraft I'd gladly take him seeing as he was able to put together a complete season and is an important part of that offense. i think that's excellent value. or 1.12 even. if I were in dynasty I'd gladly sell this year, especially if I could land a guy like Guice and some. 

I'll talk myself through it here...

According to the OP Gordon is going 1.10. I dont know if I like that spot.

FBG has Barkley below Gordon but I assume Barkley is going ahead of him. if not I take Barkley at 1.10. after Barkley is Gordon, Hunt, Fournette, Cook, Freeman, CMC. 

If I'm at 1.10 staring at those 6 guys... that's tough. I dont like Fournette long term but this is redraft. Cook is coming off a bad injury and I'm not sure if he starts slow. I like him in 2018 more than Gordon if his knee is good to go. He hurt it early in 2017 so I'm less concerned about him being rushed as many NFL athletes are. Hunt finished slow but I like him more than Gordon. I've never thought of Freeman as an awesome option for some reason, but he seems to be as consistent as they come. I'll be honest, I dont know much about Freeman because I've never owned him or thought about owning him. 

Maybe a WR at 1.10 and I'm hoping to land CMC 2.3. I'm probably taking Fournette and I'm not happy about it, and I focus on his handcuff later because I'm concerned about injury. but I like his upside for 2018 more than the others. too early for cook or cmc, maybe I can get them at 2.3. 

Let's say I hold 1.11 in the same draft, and the guy above me drafted Fournette, then I'm taking Hunt and I'm thrilled with one of Cook, CMC, or Gordon as my rb1b at 2.2.

1.12 I'm stoked about Gordon falling to me. 

So does 2 spots over where I would take him make him overvalued? I dont know, that seems to be splitting hairs. maybe my agreement in being over valued is misplaced as my concern is more long term for him as well as missing time for injury. I dont see Gordon as a top 8 rb for 2018. fbg has him ranked 6th in ppr redraft. I think hes more along the lines of 9-12.

 

[DocHolliday]

I really enjoy these threads too.   

I totally agree with McCoy.  His age and that O scares me a ton.    I disagree about Gordon.   I think his ADP is fine.  He is a good RB in an efficient O.  I don't know about McKinnon yet.  I think he has talent but don't know how he will b used.  

 

[TripItUp]

I’m not so sure of that.

1) There is no chance Gordon can’t improve his YPC?  Even a bump up to 4.2 could yield another 100 yards rushing.

Not very likely...we have 3 years of data that that suggest he is a sub 4.0 YPC back.  YPC typically goes down, not up, as RBs age given all other environmental factors are even which they mostly are in this instance.  You'd have to really believe in an O Line improvement to justify projecting a 4.2 YPC for Gordon.

 

[TripItUp]

Nice list overall.  I do love these threads because they invite discussions for and against specific players at their ADP's.   Regardless of what side you are--I think the discussion that these threads create are a win-win for everybody.   

My only question mark on the list would be Gordon.  I don't know if he's over valued--I think his price is probably about right. With that said--I just don't know if he excites me at where he's going.   At his current price--I think I'd probably be more excited about drafting a guy like Deandre Hopkins or Odell Beckham.  In a ten team league--I'd much rather go for one of those WR's and grabbing a guy like Hunt or Fournette to couple with them at the 2.1 spot.   I think that I agree with the assessment that Gordon might be overvalued at his ADP--but for 10 team league formats.  

However, in 12 team or larger leagues--the decision is tougher as to me there seems to be a pretty big drop off at the RB position at the ADP that your second round pick will be.  If you went with a guy like Hopkins in the first--you might be stuck going for a guy like Davante Freeman in the second.  I think in a 12 team league at the 10 spot--perhaps a guy like Gordon/ Hunt makes sense in the first--as you would be able to couple him with  a very good WR in the second.  In leagues larger than 12 teams--I think the dropoff in the 2nd rd rb's would be even larger--so grabbing a guy like Gordon at 1.10 isn't a bad play at all.  His value seems to make more sense in 12+ team leagues in my opinion. 

Would you rather have Gordon than Fournette or Kareem Hunt?  Both RBs are going after Gordon.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Not very likely...we have 3 years of data that that suggest he is a sub 4.0 YPC back.  YPC typically goes down, not up, as RBs age given all other environmental factors are even which they mostly are in this instance.  You'd have to really believe in an O Line improvement to justify projecting a 4.2 YPC for Gordon.

When you talk about RB’s aging, does that really apply here?  Gordon is 25 entering Year 4 - his prime.

Listen, I’m not saying draft Gordon over Gurley.  But I’d draft him over Barkley.  And I think his comparable to Fournette is personal preference IMO.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Would you rather have Gordon than Fournette or Kareem Hunt?  Both RBs are going after Gordon.

I personally don't see much of a difference between those three. I think Hunt will be fine--but I don't know if the same perfect storm that allowed him to excel as much as he did last season exists this season (ware getting hurt, not too many mouths to feed--just him, kelce, and Hill--now you add watkins to the mix as well as a new qb).  I'd probably still go Hunt first--and then I view Fournette and Gordon a toss up mainly because of the volume of the workloads that I expect them both to have.  

Effectively-just looking at potential workloads alone--the RB'S that are getting drafted in the first rd (assuming a 12 team league) are: Gurley, Bell, Elliott, David Johnson, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt and Fournette.  I personally think that all of these guys are probably worth considering in the first round--so it's hard for me to say that Gordon is over priced--I think he's priced about right.  The 13th pick according to ADP in ppr is dalvin cook--and I think that it makes sense that Gordon be drafted ahead of him with Cook coming back from an injury. I certainly like gordon more than freeman or mccaffrey--who are the next two guys going after Cook.  Just looking at the entire RB position according to ADP--it's hard for me to agree that Gordon is going way above where he should be going.  

 

[TripItUp]

I personally don't see much of a difference between those three. I think Hunt will be fine--but I don't know if the same perfect storm that allowed him to excel as much as he did last season exists this season (ware getting hurt, not too many mouths to feed--just him, kelce, and Hill--now you add watkins to the mix as well as a new qb).  I'd probably still go Hunt first--and then I view Fournette and Gordon a toss up mainly because of the volume of the workloads that I expect them both to have.  

Effectively-just looking at potential workloads alone--the RB'S that are getting drafted in the first rd (assuming a 12 team league) are: Gurley, Bell, Elliott, David Johnson, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt and Fournette.  I personally think that all of these guys are probably worth considering in the first round--so it's hard for me to say that Gordon is over priced--I think he's priced about right.  The 13th pick according to ADP in ppr is dalvin cook--and I think that it makes sense that Gordon be drafted ahead of him with Cook coming back from an injury. I certainly like gordon more than freeman or mccaffrey--who are the next two guys going after Cook.  Just looking at the entire RB position according to ADP--it's hard for me to agree that Gordon is going way above where he should be going.  

I can make a good argument for Hunt and Fournette significantly exceeding their rookie numbers, it's a bit harder to project much more for Gordon from what he did the last few seasons...you really have to buy into the O-line hype to get there with Gordon.

The best argument for Gordon is the receptions give him a high floor in ppr IMHO.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not trying to say that at all, as when he was the primary running back they were 4-0. I just have much more faith in Shanahan, as he has shown in previous stops that he doesn't have a problem with using a 210 pound back as a workhorse, giving a similar style back a full plate as both a runner, receiver and goal line back. I also believe Shanahan is a much more creative play caller than Shurmur has ever shown himself to be. If McKinnon can't handle the load he ends up in a timeshare (like last season) and settles at RB #20. If he is what Shanahan envisions, his floor is what Hyde put together last year as RB 10.

I just disagree strongly that he could be considered "the most over valued player this year at any position." Even if he drops down to RB #24, historically you are losing about 1 point a game from the guy drafted RB #14. I take that risk all day long when his upside is top 8.

McKinnon, Gordon and McCoy are all 3 guys that are scheduled to be the primary runners, will catch a load of passes and do not have a goal line vulture. Those are the 3 most important factors in a successful season. Maybe they don't meet expectations, but going into a season you can't ask for a much better situation. I understand that McKinnon's never been that guy, McCoy has a crappy supporting cast and Gordon has some injury/issues

I don't know if McKinnon is the most over valued player, or if he is over valued? I recall in May I was questioning if ESPN ranking of McKinnon at 31 was too high.

After doing some projections for him (which I feel are higher than there I would be comfortable drafting him as I state later on in the thread,) I ended up with pretty much agreeing with ESPN ranking at 31 overall for redraft. According to this ADP McKinnon was being drafted at 33 overall RB 15.

So no I wouldn't say he is the most over valued player out there. I haven't really given that much thought. I have been cautioning people to not get carried away about him and there are some things that might prevent him from putting up top 10 RB numbers. There is risk as well. However even if he is used the same as he was with the Vikings, he would be worth starting in fantasy.

I do think McKinnon has been drafted higher than this in some more recent mock drafts and it is possible his ADP climbs over the next month or so which could lead to him being the most over valued player, if you are talking about him going 25 overall or higher by then.

I do see a way that McKinnon could perform well enough to have top 10 numbers, but that is an even better case scenario than the one I laid out with projections. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I really enjoy these threads too.   

I totally agree with McCoy.  His age and that O scares me a ton.    I disagree about Gordon.   I think his ADP is fine.  He is a good RB in an efficient O.  I don't know about McKinnon yet.  I think he has talent but don't know how he will b used.  

Everything is relative. It depends where McCoy gets drafted. The days of him being a Top 5 back are gone. But I have seen him falling to near RB15 in drafts. 

If healthy, he should still get 300+ touches and those guys are getting rarer and rarer. I still rather take a guy at that point than someone a couple rounds later in more of a time share. 

 

[TripItUp]

Everything is relative. It depends where McCoy gets drafted. The days of him being a Top 5 back are gone. But I have seen him falling to near RB15 in drafts. 

If healthy, he should still get 300+ touches and those guys are getting rarer and rarer. I still rather take a guy at that point than someone a couple rounds later in more of a time share. 

How about a guy like Guice a full round later

McCoy ADP = 2.09

Guice = 3.09

 

[Anarchy99]

How about a guy like Guice a full round later

McCoy ADP = 2.09

Guice = 3.09

I don’t see Guice getting 20 touches a game. IMO, McCoy could see 75-100 more touches. 

A lot of this has to do with different approaches to drafting. I think McCoy has a lower ceiling but a much higher floor. So I would fully expect a healthy McCoy to rank RB 10-15. Guice could probably make a run at the Top 5 if everything went his way. But I could also see him in the RB 25-30 range. 

Both BUF and WAS are transitioning to different QBs, so that makes it a little more difficult to decipher. 

 

[Ilov80s]

After participating in a ton of online money drafts and doing a fair amount of research, the following are my overvalued players pre-camp.   (ADP per FF calculator, PPR 12 team leagues)

1.  Melvin Gordon – ADP RB#7 1.10 Overall

Gordon is a solid RB, but he’s not the 7th best RB in fantasy football this year and there are several reasons why.  First, his stats/metrics are average.  He’s averaged 3.9 YPC over the past few years and his DVOA last year was -6 and change.   His value the past few years has been heavily based on his double digit TDs which is closer to his ceiling than his floor.  On the plus side he did have 57 receptions last year so that raises his floor.   Lastly, Gordon is an upright runner with a slender build that missed 5 total games in his first two seasons.  These aren’t reasons to ignore Gordon, but they are collectively reasons to bump him down your rankings after RBs like Fournette, Hunt, Cook and others that I believe have higher ceilings and/or a lower risk profile.

Reasons to like Melvin Gordon:

Even if we include his disappointing rookie year where he didn't score a single TD, Gordon has a 16 game average of 1400 and 9. His 16 game pace the last 2 seasons has been 1600 and 13. 

He just turned 25 so he is right at his peak.

His competition is a UDFA and a 7th rounder. 

He plays on what most people expect to be a good team with a strong offense. 

He catches passes- he was the 7th most targeted RB in the NFL last year with 79. 

Sure he hasn't been very efficient but who cares, he gets massive volume. He has missed 5 games in 3 years as an NFL RB. So what? These guys get hurt, it is part of the game. Cook 10 games last year. Fournette has a history of ankle problems so I am not sure why they aren't being discounted for it but Gordon is. 

 

[Tau837]

I can make a good argument for Hunt and Fournette significantly exceeding their rookie numbers, it's a bit harder to project much more for Gordon from what he did the last few seasons...you really have to buy into the O-line hype to get there with Gordon.

I'd like to hear your arguments for Hunt and Fournette "significantly" exceeding their rookie numbers.

I disagree that it is hard to make a case for that happening with Gordon. Here are some things that should help him:

1. The OL run blocking should be improved, which should help Gordon's ypc:
   
   Last year's starting center, Pulley, was graded by PFF as the 3rd worst out of 47 graded centers at run blocking. The Chargers signed Pouncey to replace him. Pouncey didn't grade much better last year (tied for 37th), but he also came off offseason hip surgery and was clearly not 100% going into the season. In 2016, Ajayi averaged 6.0 ypc in the games in which Pouncey played vs. 4.1 ypc in the other games. Bottom line, Pouncey should be an upgrade as a run blocker.
   
2. Last year, the Chargers' 2017 2nd round draft pick Lamp got hurt in preseason and missed the season. That forced the Chargers to start Kenny Wiggins at RG all season, and his run blocking graded even worse than Pulley's, ranking #112 out of 123 graded guards in 2017. Lamp should be back to start at RG this year. PFF graded him with the 3rd highest run blocking grade of all players in the 2017 draft, so he should be expected to provide a significant upgrade as a run blocker.
   
3. Last year, starting LG Slauson got hurt midseason, forcing rookie Feeney into a starting role. He played well, and should be better in his second season.
   

[*]Offseason reports have been positive on Mike Williams. The team obviously expected him to be a playmaker when they drafted him at #7 last season. If he comes close to justifying that draft position and he and the other WRs stay healthy, the Chargers will have one of the strongest WR groups in the NFL, which should reduce the number of defenders in the box.

1. 
   Last season, Gordon averaged 1.6 ypc vs. stacked fronts, which was #31 in the league; he averaged 5.4 ypc against light fronts, which was #5 in the league. The percentage of stacked fronts he ran against was #14 in the league, whereas the percentage of light fronts he ran against was #35. So any swing in stacked fronts towards base or light fronts stands to improve his ypc.
   

[*]Last season, the Chargers were #4 in offensive yards and #4 in average yards per drive. Yet they were tied for #11 in 3rd down conversion percentage and tied for #16 in 4th down conversion percentage. This shows that there is room for improvement in both of those conversion categories, and the the expected improvement in the performance of the OL and Mike Williams should contribute to that. That in turn should allow the offense to run more plays and get deeper into opponent territory more often, both things providing Gordon with more opportunity.

[*]Last season, Gordon was #7 in game script. That despite the fact that the Chargers easily had the worst placekicking performance in the league. The kicking game will be better this season, which should only improve his game script.

[*]The Chargers also spent their first 4 draft picks on defense, further improving what was already a strong unit (#3 in points allowed, #6 in turnovers forced). They only lost 1 starter, FS Boston, who was upgraded by #17 overall draft pick Derwin James. That just further helps the game script.

[*]Gordon had 58 receptions last season, and the coaching staff has talked about expanding his role in the passing game this year. He also had 6 drops last season, which is a high number that should come down.

[*]HC Lynn was a first year HC, and the playcalling was overly conservative and predictable in the first 4 games than in the rest of the season, which contributed to their 0-4 start. Then the coaching staff opened things up a bit, the offense was much better, and the team finished 9-3. As an example of this, the Chargers were #17 in first half pass attempts in the first 4 games and #1 in the last 12 games. Gordon averaged 3.1 ypc in those first 4 games and 4.1 ypc the rest of the season, despite the lousy OL run blocking performance described above. It seems reasonable to expect the playcalling in 2018 will be more like those last 12 games than the first 4 games.

1. 
   BTW, in PPR, Gordon averaged 14.4 ppg in those first 4 games, compared to 19.2 ppg in the last 12.  
   

All of that could easily add up to another 200+ YFS and 4+ TDs.

I'm not holding my breath for all of this to happen, but it is certainly possible. We already know Gordon has a very high floor, and this illustrates that he also has a high ceiling.