Triple Crown Winner California Chrome (1 Viewer)

[Parrothead]

I have just one similarity with a horse.

a big nose?

 

[pizzatyme]

I have just one similarity with a horse.

Odor?

Nope. I like carrots.

 

[Dentist]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that?

Largely through the increase in field size making it statistically harder

 

[Timmay]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that?

Largely through the increase in field size making it statistically harder

No real definitive answer for this. Some say increase in field size, others say horses aren't as durable as they were 30+ years ago, horses race less nowadays then they did back then, others say horses now are bred for speed over stamina. Maybe it is a little bit of everything?

Either way winning the triple crown takes a special horse that can run different types of races. Belmont is a lot different than Derby/Preakness.

 

[Nipsey]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

Horses bred now for speed and appearance as opposed to stamina and durability. That and they have less experience leading up to the Derby than they did in the past as to not damage the investment. Bred and trained differently.

 

[chet]

Owners of General A Rod think that horse could have come second or won if he hadn't got stuck behind Ria Antonia and lost a lot of momentum. He will race next near the end of July.

Every other owner in that race feels the same way I'm sure.

I can't speak for other owners but that report is different from others that I get when their horses don't do well. I believe them. Also, if you focus on GAR, you will see what they say is true. GAR came 4th by a head and was closing fast. Lastly, GAR galloped out very strongly. Just something to keep in mind next time you see him in a race.

 

[chet]

Owners of General A Rod think that horse could have come second or won if he hadn't got stuck behind Ria Antonia and lost a lot of momentum. He will race next near the end of July.

Every other owner in that race feels the same way I'm sure.

Doubtful. General A Rod was just about to put the burners on around the far turn when Ria Antonia fell from 2nd place to near the end and partially block General A Rod. This caused General A Rod to stop his momentum on the far turn and not be able to hit stride until about 250 yards left and by that time it was too late. I don't think he could of won, but certainly 2nd wasn't far fetched.

 

[General Malaise]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

There's only been 11 of them. There were 4 TC winners in the 40s and then a long gap to 1973, so it isn't unprecedented to have long waits for a TC winner. You also have to remember that the 1970s produced the greatest horse in history with Secretariat. That horse would have won a TC today, 100 years ago, 100 years into our future.

Personally, I think we're going to see one this year. Perhaps we get another one this decade and we have to wait another 30 years for it to happen again. It's freaking hard to accomplish. The Derby is such a packed field that anything can and does happen to great horses...Afleet Alex and Point Given were worthy TC horses who captured the final two legs, but ran into trouble in the crowded Derby. The Belmont is a behemoth of a race to run and it takes a very special horse to win it after winning/running three weeks prior.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

smart move to allow CC to run the Belmont... horse racing needs the publicity.... i can't believe this was an issue before.

And what would be even more awesome.. if he wins the Belmont, let him come back and defend to keep even more momentum going!

Not a horse racing guy, but what if he had and accident and needed to be put down? Seems like a lot of breeding money flushed down the toilet.

If he does win the TC, let the guy rest and get laid.

ETA: Or is all the breeding done artificially now?

Oh no...no no no. None of that allowed in racing. It's straight up Rebecca Lobo position or nothing at all. There's even horse fluffers out there if you're looking for work.

He's even got the forrestmail to prove it

 

[General Malaise]

smart move to allow CC to run the Belmont... horse racing needs the publicity.... i can't believe this was an issue before.

And what would be even more awesome.. if he wins the Belmont, let him come back and defend to keep even more momentum going!

Not a horse racing guy, but what if he had and accident and needed to be put down? Seems like a lot of breeding money flushed down the toilet.

If he does win the TC, let the guy rest and get laid.

ETA: Or is all the breeding done artificially now?

Oh no...no no no. None of that allowed in racing. It's straight up Rebecca Lobo position or nothing at all. There's even horse fluffers out there if you're looking for work.

He's even got the forrestmail to prove it

 

[Raider Nation]

The word is he's looking great and very comfortable at the track this week. I may have to make a Super Square play and bet him +110 to win.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The word is he's looking great and very comfortable at the track this week. I may have to make a Super Square play and bet him +110 to win.

Not saying he is a sure thing to win but I would be surprised to see better track odds than that come racetime. Lots of people like to bet keepsake tickets in case of of an historical win like this would be. Track betting-wise I might see betting Crome to place being the better "value" bet since the payoff might be close to the same.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Well before 6 a.m. Saturday, the news media began to assemble outside Barn 26 at Belmont Park. California Chrome’s connections were there, too, coffee in hand.

All were waiting for California Chrome to head to the racetrack for his only significant workout before he takes aim at the Triple Crown next Saturday in the Belmont Stakes.

About 6:35 a.m., he emerged from the barn as camera operators, photographers and reporters ran alongside and followed his every move. His ears were pricked the entire time, and when he reached the racetrack, he put his head down and went to work.

Several hundred people watched as California Chrome, with jockey Victor Espinoza aboard, turned in an electric performance, breezing a half-mile in 47.69 seconds and covering 5 furlongs in 59.93 before galloping out in 1:12.95. The people lining the rail cheered as he motored past.

“He’s ready, he galloped out great, exactly what we wanted today,” the assistant trainer Alan Sherman said. “I’m confident in this horse and always have been.”

Upstairs in the press box, the clockers, juggling binoculars and stopwatches, were equally impressed.

“That was a very nice work,” one said.

“A big-time workout; he’s still going,” another said.

Finally, someone said what everyone else was probably thinking, “He might just win the Triple Crown.”

 

[chet]

General A Rod running in the Belmont.

 

[BRONG]

Peter Gulemas, who has worked for New York Racing Association for 20 years, skipped a formal greeting and said, “clockers” and “main track.” The phone rang so often that he changed his greeting to, “New York Daily News.”

“Do you want to know about your horse or California Chrome?” he said to the caller, a trainer. “He’s unbelievable, huh? Very good, very good. He was something.”

Outside, the parking lot closest to the track was full. On the apron, near the official Belmont news conference area, fans mingled with curious horsemen and journalists.

“I’ve never seen this many people here in the morning,” Gulemas said. “There was never a crowd like this for Smarty Jones or Funny Cide, and those were considered people’s horses, especially Funny Cide, who was a New York-bred.”

 

[DiStefano]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

Random distribution will tend to clump at times.

"Humans tend to see patterns when, in fact, the results are completely random. When listening to a Geiger counter, we all get the impression that the radioactive decays are clumped. And yet, they are all independent and random. The same phenomena is sometimes called the "Gambler's Paradox." Someone who is placing bets looks for patterns and bets to take advantage of them. But the patterns aren't really there (the fall of the ball on the roulette wheel really is random -- at least at an honest casino), and so the gambler who is looking for patterns and 'streaks' is really only fooling himself. Every spin is independent, with equal chance to come up red or black, equal chance to hit any number between 0 and 99. The fact that the last 5 hits were black doesn't mean that you can now predict that the next one will be black too.

Nor does a string of blacks mean that the next one will be red. That might be the logic of a gambler who says, "in the end, it all has to even out." In fact, it doesn't have to even out. In the end, if the number of times it came up red is expected to be 10,000, then from the square-root rule, we really expect it only to be within the range of 10,000 ± squareroot(10,000) = 10,000 ± 100. Note that with more spins of the wheel, the squareroot gets larger. So it doesn't have to even out!

We will give several other examples of the randomness paradox: constellations of random stars, and the batting streaks in baseball."

 

[chet]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

Random distribution will tend to clump at times.

"Humans tend to see patterns when, in fact, the results are completely random. When listening to a Geiger counter, we all get the impression that the radioactive decays are clumped. And yet, they are all independent and random. The same phenomena is sometimes called the "Gambler's Paradox." Someone who is placing bets looks for patterns and bets to take advantage of them. But the patterns aren't really there (the fall of the ball on the roulette wheel really is random -- at least at an honest casino), and so the gambler who is looking for patterns and 'streaks' is really only fooling himself. Every spin is independent, with equal chance to come up red or black, equal chance to hit any number between 0 and 99. The fact that the last 5 hits were black doesn't mean that you can now predict that the next one will be black too.

Nor does a string of blacks mean that the next one will be red. That might be the logic of a gambler who says, "in the end, it all has to even out." In fact, it doesn't have to even out. In the end, if the number of times it came up red is expected to be 10,000, then from the square-root rule, we really expect it only to be within the range of 10,000 ± squareroot(10,000) = 10,000 ± 100. Note that with more spins of the wheel, the squareroot gets larger. So it doesn't have to even out!

We will give several other examples of the randomness paradox: constellations of random stars, and the batting streaks in baseball."

Never heard the square root before. Does it generally represent 1 SD or so from the mean?

 

[DiStefano]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

Random distribution will tend to clump at times.

"Humans tend to see patterns when, in fact, the results are completely random. When listening to a Geiger counter, we all get the impression that the radioactive decays are clumped. And yet, they are all independent and random. The same phenomena is sometimes called the "Gambler's Paradox." Someone who is placing bets looks for patterns and bets to take advantage of them. But the patterns aren't really there (the fall of the ball on the roulette wheel really is random -- at least at an honest casino), and so the gambler who is looking for patterns and 'streaks' is really only fooling himself. Every spin is independent, with equal chance to come up red or black, equal chance to hit any number between 0 and 99. The fact that the last 5 hits were black doesn't mean that you can now predict that the next one will be black too.

Nor does a string of blacks mean that the next one will be red. That might be the logic of a gambler who says, "in the end, it all has to even out." In fact, it doesn't have to even out. In the end, if the number of times it came up red is expected to be 10,000, then from the square-root rule, we really expect it only to be within the range of 10,000 ± squareroot(10,000) = 10,000 ± 100. Note that with more spins of the wheel, the squareroot gets larger. So it doesn't have to even out!

We will give several other examples of the randomness paradox: constellations of random stars, and the batting streaks in baseball."

Never heard the square root before. Does it generally represent 1 SD or so from the mean?

From Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penrose_square_root_law

I'm afraid the math is starting to get too complicated for me. It's been a while since I spent a lot of time in math. I'm still ok with 2+2=4

But here's a little more:

"The one rule of statistics that everyone should know is the square root rule. In fact, you will be amazed to see how important it is! This is the way it works: if, based on past performance, you expect to have an event happen 1000 times, then don't be surprised if it actually happens 1032 times, or 968 times. Where did I get those numbers? First, I take the squareroot of 1000. That is 32. Then I both add it, and subtract it, from 1000. That gives me the expected range. That's the squareroot rule.

Is the squareroot rule ever violated? Yes -- about 1/3 of the time! That is pretty frequent. So if you expected the event to occur 1000 times, and it actually occurred 1050 times (that is bigger than 1032), then you are surprised, but not too surprised. The squareroot is called the "standard deviation". The standard deviation for 1000 events is 32. For 100 events, it is 10. For 1,000,000 events, it is 1,000. The rules of statistics say that you will exceed twice the standard deviation only 5% of the time. That still happens, of course. You exceed three standard deviations only 0.3% of the time. That still happens about one time in 300."

 

[culdeus]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

Random distribution will tend to clump at times.

"Humans tend to see patterns when, in fact, the results are completely random. When listening to a Geiger counter, we all get the impression that the radioactive decays are clumped. And yet, they are all independent and random. The same phenomena is sometimes called the "Gambler's Paradox." Someone who is placing bets looks for patterns and bets to take advantage of them. But the patterns aren't really there (the fall of the ball on the roulette wheel really is random -- at least at an honest casino), and so the gambler who is looking for patterns and 'streaks' is really only fooling himself. Every spin is independent, with equal chance to come up red or black, equal chance to hit any number between 0 and 99. The fact that the last 5 hits were black doesn't mean that you can now predict that the next one will be black too.

Nor does a string of blacks mean that the next one will be red. That might be the logic of a gambler who says, "in the end, it all has to even out." In fact, it doesn't have to even out. In the end, if the number of times it came up red is expected to be 10,000, then from the square-root rule, we really expect it only to be within the range of 10,000 ± squareroot(10,000) = 10,000 ± 100. Note that with more spins of the wheel, the squareroot gets larger. So it doesn't have to even out!

We will give several other examples of the randomness paradox: constellations of random stars, and the batting streaks in baseball."

Never heard the square root before. Does it generally represent 1 SD or so from the mean?

Actually, a standard deviation is a square root. Precisely. That's what they are based off of.

 

[got_nugs]

I have just one similarity with a horse.

Odor?

Nope. I like carrots.

I wish it woulda been apples.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14BelmontProbables.pdf

The contenders.

 

[BRONG]

He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.

Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.

He was the chalk favorite. Question was who had commanding curve in the exacta.

@ "chalk favorite".

 

[BRONG]

Got him at +1125 to win the TC

 

[Raider Nation]

Anyone love anything on the great under card? I'm gonna try to focus on finding value in those rather than analyzing the main event to death.

After adjusting this year's stakes schedule, NYRA has put together a Belmont Stakes under card featuring eight graded races, including five Grade 1s (Acorn, Ogden Phipps, Just A Game, Met Mile, and Manhattan). The stakes portion of Saturday's card is tentatively scheduled to begin with the G3-Jaipur Invitational in race 3. The final stakes race of the day is the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes, which will run after the Belmont as race 12.

 

[Rove!]

I have just one similarity with a horse.

maybe if the horse is a gelding....

 

[Judge Smails]

Got him at +1125 to win the TC

No kidding. Good luck man

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Got him at +1125 to win the TC

No kidding. Good luck man

Just play an exacta all except Chrome with all. Lock in profit.

 

[DiStefano]

I have just one similarity with a horse.

a big nose?

Your rear end?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Anyone love anything on the great under card? I'm gonna try to focus on finding value in those rather than analyzing the main event to death.

After adjusting this year's stakes schedule, NYRA has put together a Belmont Stakes under card featuring eight graded races, including five Grade 1s (Acorn, Ogden Phipps, Just A Game, Met Mile, and Manhattan). The stakes portion of Saturday's card is tentatively scheduled to begin with the G3-Jaipur Invitational in race 3. The final stakes race of the day is the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes, which will run after the Belmont as race 12.

I just hope they actually show most of these races and not give us 8 hours of interviews with the owners & their relatives.

 

[Timmay]

Anyone love anything on the great under card? I'm gonna try to focus on finding value in those rather than analyzing the main event to death.

After adjusting this year's stakes schedule, NYRA has put together a Belmont Stakes under card featuring eight graded races, including five Grade 1s (Acorn, Ogden Phipps, Just A Game, Met Mile, and Manhattan). The stakes portion of Saturday's card is tentatively scheduled to begin with the G3-Jaipur Invitational in race 3. The final stakes race of the day is the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes, which will run after the Belmont as race 12.

I just hope they actually show most of these races and not give us 8 hours of interviews with the owners & their relatives.

Agreed, but good luck with that. Art Sherman and the CC ownership will be every where.

 

[chet]

Post Positions and morning odds:

The field for the Belmont Stakes (morning line odds in parentheses):

1 -- Medal Count (20-1)

2 -- California Chrome (3-5)

3 -- Matterhorn (30-1)

4 -- Commanding Curve (15-1)

5 -- Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6 -- Matuszak (30-1)

7 -- Samraat (20-1)

8 -- Commissioner (20-1)

9 -- Wicked Strong (6-1)

10 -- General a Rod (20-1)

11 -- Tonalist (8-1)

 

[Ray Karpis]

Post Positions and morning odds:

The field for the Belmont Stakes (morning line odds in parentheses):

1 -- Medal Count (20-1)

2 -- California Chrome (3-5)

3 -- Matterhorn (30-1)

4 -- Commanding Curve (15-1)

5 -- Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6 -- Matuszak (30-1)

7 -- Samraat (20-1)

8 -- Commissioner (20-1)

9 -- Wicked Strong (6-1)

10 -- General a Rod (20-1)

11 -- Tonalist (8-1)

Thoughts on Tonalist? I don't follow closely, but I'm guessing the odds are based primarily on his 107 Beyer last time out. Is he setup to go a 1 1/2 mile?

 

[Dentist]

Anyone love anything on the great under card? I'm gonna try to focus on finding value in those rather than analyzing the main event to death.

After adjusting this year's stakes schedule, NYRA has put together a Belmont Stakes under card featuring eight graded races, including five Grade 1s (Acorn, Ogden Phipps, Just A Game, Met Mile, and Manhattan). The stakes portion of Saturday's card is tentatively scheduled to begin with the G3-Jaipur Invitational in race 3. The final stakes race of the day is the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes, which will run after the Belmont as race 12.

I just hope they actually show most of these races and not give us 8 hours of interviews with the owners & their relatives.

NBC is only showing the Belmont Stakes from 3:30 to 6 so I'm guessing we're going to get very little actual races and a ton of analysis on previous triple crown winners, near winners, etc.

 

[Timmay]

Post Positions and morning odds:

The field for the Belmont Stakes (morning line odds in parentheses):

1 -- Medal Count (20-1)

2 -- California Chrome (3-5)

3 -- Matterhorn (30-1)

4 -- Commanding Curve (15-1)

5 -- Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6 -- Matuszak (30-1)

7 -- Samraat (20-1)

8 -- Commissioner (20-1)

9 -- Wicked Strong (6-1)

10 -- General a Rod (20-1)

11 -- Tonalist (8-1)

Thoughts on Tonalist? I don't follow closely, but I'm guessing the odds are based primarily on his 107 Beyer last time out. Is he setup to go a 1 1/2 mile?

His odds have to be a reflection of his last race speed times at Belmont. It was a sloppy track so if they get wet on Saturday it looks like that could benefit Tonalist. I don't think he should have any problems with the 1.5 mile.

 

[Judge Smails]

Tonalist is very interesting. Having Pleasant Colony on the Dam side is very intriguing. I think he gets a mile and half. Tonalist and California Chrome should be 1-2 early, with Samraat right there.

Wicked Strong and Ride on Curlin are in the Superfecta - I'm convinced of that. Tonalist could win or run out. Has to break well from the outside. But, if he breaks well, and California Chrome doesn't.........you never know. Could see D'Tara/Big Brown all over again. These are the best 4 horses in the Belmont. General A-Rod, Samraat or Medal Count could run 4th if one of the speed horses falter. But don't see them cracking top 3.

The horse I don't know what to do with is the one I did know what to do with in the Derby. Commanding Curve. My first thought was to throw him out - typical late running closer type in the Derby who often come back and do nothing in the Belmont (while plodders can win and wear down others who are staggering in the stretch, they typically are all staggering so it's not a deep closers race). But I may be underestimating him. Matterhorn, Matuszak and Commissioner are throwouts.

 

[matttyl]

Post Positions and morning odds:

The field for the Belmont Stakes (morning line odds in parentheses):

1 -- Medal Count (20-1)

2 -- California Chrome (3-5)

3 -- Matterhorn (30-1)

4 -- Commanding Curve (15-1)

5 -- Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6 -- Matuszak (30-1)

7 -- Samraat (20-1)

8 -- Commissioner (20-1)

9 -- Wicked Strong (6-1)

10 -- General a Rod (20-1)

11 -- Tonalist (8-1)

So over a 50% chance of seeing the first triple crown winner of my lifetime. Sweet.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/6/4/belmont-stakes-pedigree-can-mr-prospector-do-it-again

 

[culdeus]

3-5 isn't exactly bridgejumper territory, but I wonder what the show pool is going to look like on him.

 

[Timmay]

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/6/4/belmont-stakes-pedigree-can-mr-prospector-do-it-again

That is some interesting stuff. Amazing really.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

3-5 isn't exactly bridgejumper territory, but I wonder what the show pool is going to look like on him.

Ultra-big races those kind of bets tend to get slightly dwarved by the sheer size of the betting pools.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Todd Pletcher has found a way to put at least one horse in every race that day.

 

[Judge Smails]

The way Ride on Curlin finished in the Preakness, and the way his sire finished in the Belmont, makes the Rosario move off of Ride on Curlin to Tonalist very interesting.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

downthestretch.com's take on the race:

California Chrome, at 3/5, by Lucky Pulpit, what’s left to say here, winner of 6 in a row including the GI Santa Anita Derby, GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness Stakes running a 3w early stalking trip in all 3 outings then pulling away at the top of the stretch to go on to be the much the best winner in all 3 GI events. He seems to love this Belmont course in all his most recent workouts under California like weather conditions here in the Big Apple since coming up from Pimlico. No medical or physical issues have cropped up for him since his Preakness win and the Saturday forecast calls for more of this seasonal but dry weather of late here in the northeast.

So, the only question that needs answering now is – can he still prevail at this 1 1/2 mile marathon distance here on Saturday? The answer should be yes as even the littlest of early intangibles seem to be pointing in his favor at the time of this writing.

Wicked Strong , at 6/1, by Hard Spun, won the GI Wood Memorial over at Aqueduct earlier this spring then finished a very decent 4th last out in the GI Kentucky Derby after some early derby traffic woes. Good Belmont bloodlines here as well and is another Closer type to worry the California Chrome, connections here on Saturday.

Tonalist, at 8 /1, an is another Tapit son, and was the scary good winner of a sloppy GII Peter Pan Stakes here at Belmont Park last out covering the 1 1/8 mile slop in very nice 1:48.30 to a drawing off 4 lengths win over some in this field here on Saturday. His resume is a bit lean on experience however, and he will have to stretch out the additional 3/8′s of a mile here on Saturday, too. His bloodlines are solid for this race but he is going to have to grow up fast here on Saturday. He can close or stalk an early pace.

Ride On Curlin, at 12/1, By Curlin, has the bloodlines to win this race, as he was a grinding up 2nd to California Chrome, in the GI Preakness last out and if you project that Preakness finish out another 5/16′s does Ride On Curlin, go right on by this Preakness champ? Well, he’ll get another shot here on Saturday. Closer type here with some recent good workouts over this oval, too.

Commanding Curve, at 15/1, by Master Command, was a grinding up late 2nd to California Chrome, in the GI Kentucky Derby last out and has been waiting here for the last 5 weeks for another shot at this would-be triple crown champion. Another dead closer type here and if raced correctly in here on Saturday he will be a big factor in this race.

General A Rod, at 20/1, by Roman Ruler, came 4th last out in the GI Preakness Stakes but was back 8 lengths at the line after running 11th in the GI Kentucky Derby 2 back. He was the side kick to Wildcat Red in most of the big G/P 3yo preps but hasn’t won a race since Jan 1st. Usually stalks an early pace but we’ll wonder aloud here if he really wants any part of this 1 1/2 mile contest.

Medal Count, at 20/1, byDynaformer, is the winner of the GIII Transylvainia Stakes back on Keeneland’s opening day this spring then went on to be a rocketing up for 2nd in the GI Bluegrass Stakes, then last out was a flat 8th in the GI Kentucky Derby where he made up no real ground on leaders in the stretch of the Derby.

Samraat, at 20/1, by Noble Causeway, won the GIII Withers and Gotham Stakes this winter at Aqueduct, then a good 2nd there in the GI Wood Memorial in April getting him into the Derby where he scored a solid but hanging on 5th placing after being part of the early Derby pace. He likes it up front early and could be the early pace setter here on Saturday. Don’t think he really wants any part of a 1 1/2 mile race with his early speed as a GII Jim Dandy Stakes run up at Saratoga would have been a more logical next start.

Commissioner , at 20/1, by A.P. Indy is bloodlined correctly for this race but has yet to win a graded event. He was back those 4 lengths in the GII Peter Pan Stakes here last out for a career best 2nd finish in a graded event. Mostly a closer type and perhaps this marathon distance will bring out his family heritage for him.

Matterhorn, at 30/1, by Tapit, is just a Mdn winner but did finish 4th but 6 back in that same GII Peter Pan Stakes last out. Mostly a closer type and if you are looking for a longshot to help dress up that 4th spot in your dime super here is 10 cents worth.

Matuszak, at 30/1, by Bernardini, has been chasing Kid Cruz, all around the Aqueduct and Maryland 3yo circuits this spring but never quite catching him. He’s got wonderful bloodlines for this race and does have Hall of Fame connections, too. Closer type for sure, but you’ll need some pretty big odds here before you should break out another 10¢ to add him to the back end of a super play.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I'm really torn here...the sportsfan in me wants to see CC win the TC but the gambler in me wants to make some money

Leaning towards making a small bet on General A Rod to win just in case CC doesn't pull it off

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'm really torn here...the sportsfan in me wants to see CC win the TC but the gambler in me wants to make some money

Leaning towards making a small bet on General A Rod to win just in case CC doesn't pull it off

from a gambling site that might be taking too much CC money and wants to spread the action out:

I’m here to tell you why California Chrome WILL NOT win the Belmont Stakes this Saturday. And I’m going to lay it out the same way I did when I told you Big Brown wouldn’t win back in 2008. So put down the California Chrome Kool Aid, if you’re one of those partaking, and listen up.

THE PACE SCENARIO – Unlike in the Derby and Preakness where there was an abundance of early speed on paper and enough on the track for him to stalk perfectly, I think he’s going to be on the chase of General a Rod in the Belmont. Or, even worse, he may find himself on the front end, protecting his post 2 draw and hoping the old “you can’t get in trouble on the lead” adage rings true for just 12 more furlongs. Either way, it appears to me that he’s finally going to have to do some of the heavy lifting on Saturday.

VICTOR ESPINOZA – Last time I checked, Espinoza wasn’t one of the most revered or reliable riders in the country. In fact, he’s been on a downward trend the past few years on the national level and isn’t a guy that’s even on my radar. And the last time he was in this position, he completely panicked and dropped the ball after breaking poorly. Many will say I’m being harsh considering how bad War Emblem broke in the 2002 Belmont Stakes but I don’t think I am. You break poorly, you deal with it. You have 12 furlongs to figure it out!!! His ride was abysmal. Who knows how he’ll react if he faces some adversity again.

THE DISTANCE – Saying this horse is modestly bred is an insult to modestly bred horses nationwide. You’ll hear some people talk about going back in his pedigree and finding plenty of stamina, but that’s usually the case with every horse. The pedigree game can get tricky like that. It’s like when the ancients did a rain dance. The only reason the rain dances worked is because they danced until it rained. Go far enough back and you’ll justify this horse getting the distance.



Perhaps a bigger problem in this department is the fact that a few in here have excellent distance pedigrees. Commissioner’s sire and both grandsires won the Belmont Stakes, an insanely remarkable point. Tonalist has a ton of distance pedigree on his female side. Wicked Strong looks like a horse that wants to run all day. Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, second in the Derby and Preakness, respectively, were both running at him at the end of those races.

TRENDS - It took well over 100 years for it to happen, but when Commendable upset the 2000 Belmont he became the first horse ever to win having last raced in the Derby. Since 2000, it’s happened six more times. Commanding Curve, Samraat, Wicked Strong and Medal Count all fall under that category this year.

Since 1996 only two horses that have won the Derby and/or Preakness have come back to win the Belmont. They are a pair of Preakness winners, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005.

No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven rivals in the final jewel. Both Citation in 1948 and Seattle Slew in 1977 accomplished the feat. 10 challengers are set to face California Chrome.

Finally, each and every Triple Crown winner has had a race over the course prior to the Belmont.

EAST COAST BIAS – Forget about the fact that no horse based on the West Coast has ever won the Triple Crown. Rather than that, focus on the fact that this horse hasn’t been in his own stall at Los Alamitos in over a month. He’s called three places home in that time and has to up and move just as he’s settling in. Imagine a sports team being on the road for five weeks. Would you like their chances? Meanwhile, Commissioner, Matterhorn, Wicked Strong, Matuszak and Tonalist get to make the walkover from their home base while Samraat has just a short van ride over from Aqueduct.

MURPHY’S LAW – I dare you to find me a racing expert that can show you a horse attempting to win the Triple Crown that has had more perfect trips on the Derby Trail and in the first two Triple Crown races than this horse. At some point, the luck has to run out. California Chrome has a penchant for getting antsy and rocking back and forth in the gate. If that gate opens while he’s rocking backwards on Saturday, he’s done.

KARMA – Trainer Art Sherman started this, saying he’s not superstitious but that he brought his lucky suit with him for the Belmont, the same one he wore to the Derby and the Preakness. So I wasn’t going to evoke the images of the Racing Gods but he’s given me license to with the suit. The horse runs around the racetrack with a jockey on his back that’s wearing purple silks with a green jackass on his back and a “DAP” path on the front that stands for Dumb ### Partners. Does anyone really think those silks should hang in the Kentucky Derby Museum at Churchill Downs next to the blue and red of Calumet Farms, the pink, white and black of Harbor View Farms or the white and blue checkered silks of Meadow Stables? If they are out there, that Kool Aid must be REALLY strong.

 

[Dentist]

I'm really torn here...the sportsfan in me wants to see CC win the TC but the gambler in me wants to make some money

Leaning towards making a small bet on General A Rod to win just in case CC doesn't pull it off

horse racing as a sport needs the positive publicity that CC can generate.

This is bigger than just a few bets.

 

[chet]

I'm really torn here...the sportsfan in me wants to see CC win the TC but the gambler in me wants to make some money

Leaning towards making a small bet on General A Rod to win just in case CC doesn't pull it off

FWIW my friend (who is not connected to the ownership of General A Rod) is a nationally ranked handicapper and doesn't think GAR has much chance. He has also said that he thinks it's stupid to run him in this race because of injury risk etc.

My other friend (who is in the ownership group) thinks GAR has a good shot.

HTH



I am going to have some $ on GAR though.

 

[Todem]

Three Triple-Crown winners in six years between 1973-1978, and none since. How do you explain that??

You can't.

It is simply one of the toughest things to do in sports. But I have this feeling that we are finally going to get our first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

I thought Spectacular Bid was going to do it in 79...what an amazing freak of a horse he was. Best Horse I ever saw was Seattle Slew. My dad has been in the horsing game since 75. He had a horse in last years Derby Black Onyx...but he was scratched due to a chip in his ankle two days before the race. He was heartbroken. All his life he had hoped for a horse to run in the Derby and then that happened. He has a horse running in the first race of Belmont day tomorrow. Horse's name is Jimmy Connors.

Anyway I can't wait to see this race. Very well may be historic. This horse is special indeed. Odd's are tough though. This is by far the toughest race in the Triple Crown chase. Leroy Hoard makes a lot of valid points.

But sometimes lady luck is on your side just one more time. And CC very well may be a horse of destiny.

 

[BRONG]

I'm really torn here...the sportsfan in me wants to see CC win the TC but the gambler in me wants to make some money

Leaning towards making a small bet on General A Rod to win just in case CC doesn't pull it off

from a gambling site that might be taking too much CC money and wants to spread the action out:

I’m here to tell you why California Chrome WILL NOT win the Belmont Stakes this Saturday. And I’m going to lay it out the same way I did when I told you Big Brown wouldn’t win back in 2008. So put down the California Chrome Kool Aid, if you’re one of those partaking, and listen up.

THE PACE SCENARIO – Unlike in the Derby and Preakness where there was an abundance of early speed on paper and enough on the track for him to stalk perfectly, I think he’s going to be on the chase of General a Rod in the Belmont. Or, even worse, he may find himself on the front end, protecting his post 2 draw and hoping the old “you can’t get in trouble on the lead” adage rings true for just 12 more furlongs. Either way, it appears to me that he’s finally going to have to do some of the heavy lifting on Saturday.

VICTOR ESPINOZA – Last time I checked, Espinoza wasn’t one of the most revered or reliable riders in the country. In fact, he’s been on a downward trend the past few years on the national level and isn’t a guy that’s even on my radar. And the last time he was in this position, he completely panicked and dropped the ball after breaking poorly. Many will say I’m being harsh considering how bad War Emblem broke in the 2002 Belmont Stakes but I don’t think I am. You break poorly, you deal with it. You have 12 furlongs to figure it out!!! His ride was abysmal. Who knows how he’ll react if he faces some adversity again.

THE DISTANCE – Saying this horse is modestly bred is an insult to modestly bred horses nationwide. You’ll hear some people talk about going back in his pedigree and finding plenty of stamina, but that’s usually the case with every horse. The pedigree game can get tricky like that. It’s like when the ancients did a rain dance. The only reason the rain dances worked is because they danced until it rained. Go far enough back and you’ll justify this horse getting the distance.



Perhaps a bigger problem in this department is the fact that a few in here have excellent distance pedigrees. Commissioner’s sire and both grandsires won the Belmont Stakes, an insanely remarkable point. Tonalist has a ton of distance pedigree on his female side. Wicked Strong looks like a horse that wants to run all day. Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, second in the Derby and Preakness, respectively, were both running at him at the end of those races.

TRENDS - It took well over 100 years for it to happen, but when Commendable upset the 2000 Belmont he became the first horse ever to win having last raced in the Derby. Since 2000, it’s happened six more times. Commanding Curve, Samraat, Wicked Strong and Medal Count all fall under that category this year.

Since 1996 only two horses that have won the Derby and/or Preakness have come back to win the Belmont. They are a pair of Preakness winners, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005.

No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven rivals in the final jewel. Both Citation in 1948 and Seattle Slew in 1977 accomplished the feat. 10 challengers are set to face California Chrome.

Finally, each and every Triple Crown winner has had a race over the course prior to the Belmont.

EAST COAST BIAS – Forget about the fact that no horse based on the West Coast has ever won the Triple Crown. Rather than that, focus on the fact that this horse hasn’t been in his own stall at Los Alamitos in over a month. He’s called three places home in that time and has to up and move just as he’s settling in. Imagine a sports team being on the road for five weeks. Would you like their chances? Meanwhile, Commissioner, Matterhorn, Wicked Strong, Matuszak and Tonalist get to make the walkover from their home base while Samraat has just a short van ride over from Aqueduct.

MURPHY’S LAW – I dare you to find me a racing expert that can show you a horse attempting to win the Triple Crown that has had more perfect trips on the Derby Trail and in the first two Triple Crown races than this horse. At some point, the luck has to run out. California Chrome has a penchant for getting antsy and rocking back and forth in the gate. If that gate opens while he’s rocking backwards on Saturday, he’s done.

KARMA – Trainer Art Sherman started this, saying he’s not superstitious but that he brought his lucky suit with him for the Belmont, the same one he wore to the Derby and the Preakness. So I wasn’t going to evoke the images of the Racing Gods but he’s given me license to with the suit. The horse runs around the racetrack with a jockey on his back that’s wearing purple silks with a green jackass on his back and a “DAP” path on the front that stands for Dumb ### Partners. Does anyone really think those silks should hang in the Kentucky Derby Museum at Churchill Downs next to the blue and red of Calumet Farms, the pink, white and black of Harbor View Farms or the white and blue checkered silks of Meadow Stables? If they are out there, that Kool Aid must be REALLY strong.

You're probably right about them taking too much action or whatever, that "article" is slanted to say the least and reaching all over the place.

 

[17seconds]

Good thing the thread title isn't a jinx or anything