Looking at ESPN's list, I came to the following conclusions:
Too high:
David Johnson #6, feels like his ceiling. His last great year was 2016, and the o-line is still pretty bad. Johnson also deserves some blame for the offense as well, he didn't do anything above and beyond last year, and looked like a guy who needs the situation around him to carry him more than most top RB's.
Le'Veon Bell #10, not interested in taking a guy who sat out a year in round 1, especially when his situation isn't nearly as good as it was before. Curious to see how his extreme patience style of running works with a lesser o-line and a coach who has benched multiple RB's for not hitting holes fast enough. Not that Bell will get benched, obviously, but I could see him being less of a bell cow than he was in Pittsburgh.
Zach Ertz #23, had a perfect set up last year with Jeffery coming in banged up, a poor running game, and Agholor taking a step back. Now Jeffery is healthy, the running game should be much improved, Goedert could take on a bigger role, and D-Jax and JJAW were added at WR, plus Agholor is still there. Easy to see Ertz losing a ton of volume. Ertz had 116 catches last year, he never even had that many targets before in a season. Only 5 players had more targets last year(not 5 TE's, 5 players) 0% chance he sees anywhere near that again.
Sony Michel #25, this may have been optimistic before the draft. After spending a high pick on a RB with a somewhat similar skill set, top of round 3 seems very dangerous for Michel, who doesn't catch many passes, and has durability issues. He needs to be among the NFL's TD leaders to be worth this high of a pick.
Devonta Freeman #26, I'll take the opposite side of Trip here. I think this is way too high, like I'm not sure I'd have Freeman as a top-20 RB. He's had multiple lower leg issues, he's been declining the last 3 seasons, and his last big year was 2 OC's ago.
Leonard Fournette #30, never thought he was as good a prospect as others did. Injury prone and inefficient, also has a poor supporting cast, and has feuded with coaches. Not seeing the upside here.
Marlon Mack #33, I disagree with Trip here too, Mack feels a bit like fool's gold. A lot of capable RB's on that team, and they seem to have no problem using them all. Mack had a few big games last year, but also disappeared a lot. Just don't think the workload will be large or steady enough to justify a 3rd round pick.
Julian Edelman #36, feels overrated after his big Super Bowl MVP performance. Never topped 1,106 yards or 7 TD's.Going into his 11th season, I don't see that changing.
Damian Williams #38, really think the Chiefs offense is going to take a big step back, only Kelce(on pure volume) will likely live up to expectations. I'm not worried at all about Hyde taking the starting job, but I am worried they just aren't very effective running the ball, and/or utilize multiple RB's.
Derrick Henry #41, I really want believe, I do. But I just don't think the Titans truly know what they want to do on offense. He'll probably have 20+ point games, but he'll also have weeks where he's not featured at all. Add in the lack of receiving, and he's a guy I'll be happt yo let someone else take in round 4.
Too low:
Odell Beckham #16, I'm shocked he's so low. I could argue him top--5. He's got a huge chip on his shoulder to prove all of NY wrong, and has the best QB he's ever had, and an offense that is designed to be bombs away. Mayfield was hitting bombs to guys like Callaway and Perriman last year, Beckham might be a win your league caliber pick in round 2.
JuJu Smith Schuster #20, I agree with Trip here. Way too much volume to not be a stud. Only proven weapon in Pittsburgh's passing game, and they aren't about to stop throwing. Roethlisberger had a career high in pass attempts last year, and that could happen again, as he's seemingly got more power over the offense than ever.
Amari Cooper #28, was the WR7 once he got to Dallas. With a full off season to work with Prescott, and possibly more slot/mismatch chances with Beasley gone, a career year is almost certain to happen. A round 3 guy, who's post trade numbers are very repeatable, if not possibly improvable.
Stefon Diggs #34, I have really nothing to base this on, other than a gut feel that one of these years, he's gonna stay healthy, and play at a top-5 level. With the Vikings full becoming a pass 1st team, Vikings fans are lying to themselves if they think they aren't, it could be this year.
Brandin Cooks #40, I think he's almost always underrated due to his up and down nature week to week. Season to season, he always pays off. This is his 1st time in 3 years, having the same HC or QB in consecutive seasons. Can't help but think that will help, and its also possible the running game is less effective with Gurley's knee issues, and losing 2 o-line starters, and its also possible Kupp is slow to return to form following ACL surgery.
Kenny Golladay #42, was really breaking out until the entire offense fell apart around him. He's still an ascendant player, and with a supporting cast around to prevent constant double teams, a leap into the top-12 WR's isn't unreasonable.
Chris Godwin #54, I don't see Tampa's passing game losing much with Arians coming on board, but D-Jax and Humphries leaving leaves a lot of targets on the table that Godwin could/should pick up. Wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish all that far behind Evans.
DJ Moore #55, just a matter of getting targets. His RAC skills could be the best in the NFL already. As he transitions into being the undisputed top target, a sneaky top-15 season could follow. Its also possible defenses sell out to stop McCaffrey this year, leaving a lot more space for Moore.
Derrius Guice #61, I agree with Trip here as well, I'm really warming up to Guice at this spot. He's got a decent o-line, and Love is no threat yet. Thompson hasn't been the same since his 2017 injury, and Peterson, while looking good last year, isn't a guy who is going to keep Guice off the field if Guice is healthy. With an inexperienced rookie QB, I expect the Redskins to be as run heavy as any team other than Baltimore.
OJ Howard #64, similar to Godwin, those lost targets have to go somewhere. Arians has never really featured a TE, but has also never really had one this talented(sorry Heath Mller) Howard is a strong candidate to be a top-3 TE in my opinion, and would be a guy I'd be thrilled to get in round 6.
