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Trip's Top 9 RB Value Plays - Redraft 2022 pre-Training Camp (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
1.  Aaron Jones #9 - one of several RBs going after the first round that can finish top 5.  I anticipate big volume for Jones and when Jones touches it, he produces.   Trip ranking #7

2.  Saquon Barkley #11 - another 2nd or 3rd round RB that can finish top 5.  Saquon is going to catch a ton of balls in the new offensive scheme and still has the ability to break long TDs which gives him a high ceiling.  Trip ranking #9.

3.  JK Dobbins #23 - not sure how JK starts the season but I'm confident he can finish as one of the top PPG RBs in the second half of the season.  Trip Ranking #17

4.  Rhamondre Stevenson  #37 - the advanced metrics loved Rhamondre, the eye test loves Rhamondre, he's working on his 3rd down skills.   I think he's crazy good value and has way more juice than the steady, but unexciting Damien Harris.  Terrific upside here if Rhamondre gets volume.  Probably my most rostered RB in best balls and I anticipate in redrafts. Trip Ranking #25.

5.  Ronald Jones #41 - beatwriters are leaking that Jones has a chance to win early down work which is a big deal in the Chiefs offense.  If Jones can figure the passblocking, he's already the best between the tackles RB on the roster IMHO.   Trip Ranking #34.

6.  Brian Robinson #45 - Robinson is the best between the tackles rusher on the roster right now.  Gibson never profiled as a workhorse back and has proven to struggle with workhorse volume.   I like Robinson to take the reigns if Gibson falters in what should be an improved offense.  Trip Ranking #39.

7.  D'Onta Foreman #58 - IMHO one of the biggest  misses thus far by the fantasy analyst community.  Beatwriters are starting to report that Foreman is the early down backup to CMC not Hubbard.  Foreman looked terrific last year and the advanced metrics support the eye test.  Love the dart throw here. Get him before training camp reports start gushing about him.  Trip Ranking #48.

8.  Rachaad White #59 - Fournette will be ready to start the season, so this has nothing to do with recent out of shape reports.  This is more of a vote of confidence for White's ability if Fournette were to get dinged up.   The upside is obviously tremendous in this high powered offense.  Trip Ranking #52.

9.  Abram Smith #114 - Abram is going way before 114 in competitive best balls that I participate in.  Kamara's legal situation presents an opening and Ingram while probably proficient, not likely to be able to shoulder a large workload.  Abram is one of my favorite late round dart throws.  Trip Ranking #78.

**Rankings cited are FantasyPros expert consensus rankings that are publicly available.  LINK

 
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TheWinz

Footballguy
Quick question - on the rankings, it lists Kamara at 14.  Obviously, this ranking is based on a possible suspension.  If you knew right now that every RB in the NFL was going to play 17 games, where would you rank Alvin?

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Rachaad White at 59 is a screaming value; he's going more like RB40 in a lot of places like Underdog. Tons of upside if he becomes the lead guy, and Fournette is not exactly a safe bet to hold onto the lead RB role.

Rookies generally look undervalued on this list. When I started going through it to pick out values, like half the guys I picked were rookies. Breece Hall (20), Ken Walker (36), Tyler Allgeier (53), White (59), Tyrion Davis-Price (72), Hassan Haskins (83). Rookies are a good ceiling play - uncertainty about how good they are & how big a role they'll win mean that they could wind up much better than expected - and that matters a lot especially later in the draft where just matching your draft slot is worth very little. And they often win bigger roles as the season goes on, which is great if you're building for the fantasy playoffs. Hall & Walker have the highest potential talent, and could win big roles even without anyone else getting injured or faltering (IMO Seattle is more of a competition than a timeshare - the Penny/Walker split could wind up pretty imbalanced in either direction). Allgeier & TDP could also win pretty big roles without needing an injury.

Among non-rookies, I'll pick:

Saquon Barkley #11 - realistic shot at high-end production; he needs to pull off some combination of playing like the back we thought he was, dominating the NYG RB workload, and getting tons of receptions
Alvin Kamara #14 - early-season suspension shouldn't pull him down this much; the fantasy playoffs are what matter most
Darrell Henderson #44 - could be the lead RB in a good offense if Akers doesn't return to form
Rex Burkhead #71 - in a 3-way competition to be Houston's top RB; I like him least of the 3 but not by this big a gap (he has the biggest contract, had the biggest workload last year, and had a stretch as the guy in Houston)
Jerick McKinnon #76 - there is potentially a lot of value in KC's RB corps, and he was KC's lead RB in last year's playoffs

 

Obie Wan

Footballguy
2.  Saquon Barkley #11 - another 2nd or 3rd round RB that can finish top 5.  Saquon is going to catch a ton of balls in the new offensive scheme and still has the ability to break long TDs which gives him a high ceiling.  Trip ranking #9.

3
catch a ton of balls?

based on what?

Daboll didn't exactly feature the RBs in Buff, ever , at all

 

greenmountaingoat

Footballguy
@Obie WanI think it's a "rational coaching" take in that anyone with a few neurons firing understands that Barkley's value is in space, not between the tackles. I don't know Daboll's entire history well but if he's believed to be smart, smart coaches find ways to use players well.

Explosive player- laterally (maybe, assuming he's fully healthy) on a team with middling other options and not much competition at RB.

Improved O Line? couldn't be much worse!

I'm on the fence, personally. Obviously the usage , if healthy, will be there. But you have to believe that Daboll can fix Daniel Jones enough and scheme up enough offense to get Barkley some TD upside. The passing work should be there but brings us back to rational coaching. I'm more or less out on Daniel Jones so thus my reluctance to hop on the Giants train. 

I feel like they're a team the could easily sign one of the FA RBs that is more of a between the tackles type for short yardage. I haven't studied up on Latavius or Justin Jackson or whoever is out there but that NYG RB depth chart seems off. 

I know this is far from the sanest take but the NYG are snakebit in terms of injuries. Ask any Giants fan. It's not a smart take per se but people are reluctant because none of these dudes seem to be able to stay on the field. Not predictive but we're all creatures of habit.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
5.  Ronald Jones #41 - beatwriters are leaking that Jones has a chance to win early down work which is a big deal in the Chiefs offense.  If Jones can figure the passblocking,
Good luck with that. It's not like he's a rookie, this is going to be his 5th year in the league.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
4.  Rhamondre Stevenson  #37 - the advanced metrics loved Rhamondre, the eye test loves Rhamondre, he's working on his 3rd down skills.   I think he's crazy good value and has way more juice than the steady, but unexciting Damien Harris.  Terrific upside here if Rhamondre gets volume.  Probably my most rostered RB in best balls and I anticipate in redrafts. Trip Ranking #25.
Like this call - very intrigued by Rhamondre.

History has shown us that the NE backfield is frustrating, but actually not that hard to figure out roles. It's just that Bill uses multiple backs in different roles. If White doesn't make it all the way back (and I wouldn't rule out him being a final roster cut), then IMO Rhamondre becomes even more interesting if he takes a lot of the 3rd down role in addition to some early down work. For dynasty/keeper leagues, keep in mind that Harris will be a UFA after this season. Pierre Strong is someone to keep an eye on though, if not this year than next.  

 
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Ilov80s

Footballguy
greenmountaingoat said:
@Obie WanI think it's a "rational coaching" take in that anyone with a few neurons firing understands that Barkley's value is in space, not between the tackles. I don't know Daboll's entire history well but if he's believed to be smart, smart coaches find ways to use players well.

Explosive player- laterally (maybe, assuming he's fully healthy) on a team with middling other options and not much competition at RB.

Improved O Line? couldn't be much worse!

I'm on the fence, personally. Obviously the usage , if healthy, will be there. But you have to believe that Daboll can fix Daniel Jones enough and scheme up enough offense to get Barkley some TD upside. The passing work should be there but brings us back to rational coaching. I'm more or less out on Daniel Jones so thus my reluctance to hop on the Giants train. 

I feel like they're a team the could easily sign one of the FA RBs that is more of a between the tackles type for short yardage. I haven't studied up on Latavius or Justin Jackson or whoever is out there but that NYG RB depth chart seems off. 

I know this is far from the sanest take but the NYG are snakebit in terms of injuries. Ask any Giants fan. It's not a smart take per se but people are reluctant because none of these dudes seem to be able to stay on the field. Not predictive but we're all creatures of habit.
Also the Bills didn't have a good pass catching RB to scheme the ball to on passing downs. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
TripItUp said:
4.  Rhamondre Stevenson  #37 - the advanced metrics loved Rhamondre, the eye test loves Rhamondre, he's working on his 3rd down skills.   I think he's crazy good value and has way more juice than the steady, but unexciting Damien Harris.  Terrific upside here if Rhamondre gets volume.  Probably my most rostered RB in best balls and I anticipate in redrafts. Trip Ranking #25.
On a per snap basis I thought Stevenson was the best rookie RB last season, unfortunately, on the same per snap basis, Harris has been arguably the most efficient RB in the NFL the last 2 years. I'd love to see either guy get a 20 touches a week workload. They both have top-10 upside if the other goes down. 

I'm with you entirely that Stevenson has more juice, and if his pass blocking can be up to snuff, he could see some 3rd down work, as James White's roster spot looks iffy, let alone his role if he does make the team. 

If one wanted to, its probably not hard to pair Harris and Stevenson. 

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
TripItUp said:
1.  Aaron Jones #9 - one of several RBs going after the first round that can finish top 5.  I anticipate big volume for Jones and when Jones touches it, he produces.   Trip ranking #7
Jones does seem to have that 'FF community is bored with him feel'...but Adams being gone means a huge production void.  Allen Lazard is picking that up?

TripItUp said:
2.  Saquon Barkley #11 - another 2nd or 3rd round RB that can finish top 5.  Saquon is going to catch a ton of balls in the new offensive scheme and still has the ability to break long TDs which gives him a high ceiling.  Trip ranking #9.
The problem with Barkley is that by the time peak draft season comes along...the FF community which values upside over all else will be on board.  Wouldn't be surprised if he overtook Mixon.

TripItUp said:
7.  D'Onta Foreman #58 - IMHO one of the biggest  misses thus far by the fantasy analyst community.  Beatwriters are starting to report that Foreman is the early down backup to CMC not Hubbard.  Foreman looked terrific last year and the advanced metrics support the eye test.  Love the dart throw here. Get him before training camp reports start gushing about him.  Trip Ranking #48.
Solely as a CMC handcuff play, 58 is too low.  But I've seen some folks opine he might have more of a goal line role to save CMC...would be surprised because of CMC's versatility down there.

Others I like you didn't mention...

Elijah Mitchell (ranked #21) - Yes, Shanny wants RBBC.  But in seasons where SF wasn't besieged by injuries, RB carries (will include Deebo for 2021) exceed 400.  He got 20 touches/game last year (too much).  But 275 (over 17 games) feels like a sweet spot.  Could see his ranking drop too as people get spooked by Shanny's comments.  Don't.

James Cook (ranked #40) - seems like the type of Day 2 high ceiling rookie that can really start to emerge in the seasons second half and be a legit RB2.  Bills seem to love him and they also seem like they tolerate Singletary/Moss.

Jerrick McKinnon (ranked #77) - guy pretty much usurped C-E-H in the playoffs and looked good doing it.  Ronald Jones always seems to fumble away any and all opportunities.  Have to think he becomes an out of the backfield weapon KC hasn't had since Hunt. 

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Dr. Octopus said:
Good luck with that. It's not like he's a rookie, this is going to be his 5th year in the league.


I figured Ronald Jones would be the least liked call here.   You are either a believer at this point or you are not.   I like the dice roll at current ADP.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I figured Ronald Jones would be the least liked call here.   You are either a believer at this point or you are not.   I like the dice roll at current ADP.
Well I was specifically responding to you saying "if he learns to passblock" - he's horrific at it. 

But with that said I want no part of the messy backfield - especially Jones.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Elijah Mitchell (ranked #21) - Yes, Shanny wants RBBC.  But in seasons where SF wasn't besieged by injuries, RB carries (will include Deebo for 2021) exceed 400.  He got 20 touches/game last year (too much).  But 275 (over 17 games) feels like a sweet spot.  Could see his ranking drop too as people get spooked by Shanny's comments.  Don't.

James Cook (ranked #40) - seems like the type of Day 2 high ceiling rookie that can really start to emerge in the seasons second half and be a legit RB2.  Bills seem to love him and they also seem like they tolerate Singletary/Moss.

Jerrick McKinnon (ranked #77) - guy pretty much usurped C-E-H in the playoffs and looked good doing it.  Ronald Jones always seems to fumble away any and all opportunities.  Have to think he becomes an out of the backfield weapon KC hasn't had since Hunt. 


I tend to agree on Mitchell, and I like handcuffing him with TDP if I go that route.

James Cook is still a TBD for me, but he is admittedly intriguing in PPRs.

I'm not a McKinnon buyer.   He's been in the league for almost a decade and has had very few fantasy relevant stretches.   A lot of other dart throws out there that I like more.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
I'm not a McKinnon buyer.   He's been in the league for almost a decade and has had very few fantasy relevant stretches.   A lot of other dart throws out there that I like more.
If Jones and McKinnon are competing in KC's backfield, spending #77 vs #41 seems a better bet...especially since Jones doesn't play ST; McKinnon does.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
If Jones and McKinnon are competing in KC's backfield, spending #77 vs #41 seems a better bet...especially since Jones doesn't play ST; McKinnon does.


We're going to agree to disagree here, I just don't see a fantasy relevant path for McKinnon.   

 

greenmountaingoat

Footballguy
We're going to agree to disagree here, I just don't see a fantasy relevant path for McKinnon.   
If CEH gets hurt, McKinnon is the likely primary beneficiary in terms of all of the passing down work. I made a lot of hay last year with Darrel Williams off waivers last year. And the theory with Hill shipped out is that there were potentially more targets heading to the RBs in KC this year. I don't know if that's true but that's been woven into the story whenever people are trying to talk up CEH, knowing he's unlikely to get much of the early down/ short yardage work. 

I don't know why I've heard that RoJo seems to be a cut candidate but... whatever. Maybe he's not "assignment sound" and has little guaranteed money. If that comes to pass, Pacheco, Gore and McKinnon will be competing for roles from a guy that hasn't shown to be able to keep moderately talented competition stapled to the bench. Again, I'm not sold that this is going to happen but I think if he blows a few assignments and gets Mahomes killed or is in the wrong spot a bunch of times, I can't imagine the leash is long.

So there are two paths in my mind. Maybe Gore or Pacheco are it. Who TF knows? We never do with certain situations. There's only ever about half the RB depth charts we actually have figured out any year anyway. Maybe by the end of TC, we'll have a better idea. 

 

zamboni

Footballguy
TripItUp said:
2.  Saquon Barkley #11 - another 2nd or 3rd round RB that can finish top 5.  Saquon is going to catch a ton of balls in the new offensive scheme and still has the ability to break long TDs which gives him a high ceiling.  Trip ranking #9.
The problem with Barkley is that by the time peak draft season comes along...the FF community which values upside over all else will be on board.  Wouldn't be surprised if he overtook Mixon.
If he looks spry in preseason, I think Barkley may see the biggest ADP rise among any non-rookie RB.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Running between the tackles isn't very valuable. Especially in KC
I disagree. KC has seen soft Cover 2 zones and light fronts the past two years as teams have tried to adjust to their offense. So they see lots of nickel and dime defenses. They need to be able to run the ball between the tackles to make teams pay and subsequently draw guys closer to the line of scrimmage so that KC's deep threats can operate. 

 

RenegadeRoy

Footballguy
TripItUp said:
8.  Rachaad White #59 - Fournette will be ready to start the season, so this has nothing to do with recent out of shape reports.  This is more of a vote of confidence for White's ability if Fournette were to get dinged up.   The upside is obviously tremendous in this high powered offense.  Trip Ranking #52.


I heard his pass blocking isn't up to snuff. Not unusual for a rookie RB but for a Brady lead offense that's usually a death sentence. Not sure I can trust him, but hard to deny any piece of the TB offense.

 
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Ilov80s

Footballguy
I disagree. KC has seen soft Cover 2 zones and light fronts the past two years as teams have tried to adjust to their offense. So they see lots of nickel and dime defenses. They need to be able to run the ball between the tackles to make teams pay and subsequently draw guys closer to the line of scrimmage so that KC's deep threats can operate. 
I am not saying it isn't valuable to the KC. Not sure that is valuable for fantasy though. 

 

rockaction

Footballguy
I am not saying it isn't valuable to the KC. Not sure that is valuable for fantasy though. 
Oh...well...that ends that. I agree that RoJo isn't going to be a great fantasy candidate, and I roster him in dynasty. I just thought you were saying that a between-the-tackles guy wasn't valuable to KC, which as we saw last year, just doesn't seem true. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Oh...well...that ends that. I agree that RoJo isn't going to be a great fantasy candidate, and I roster him in dynasty. I just thought you were saying that a between-the-tackles guy wasn't valuable to KC, which as we saw last year, just doesn't seem true. 
I hadn't thought about the team utility of the player before this but I think you are right. Having a powerful back who can hit a hole and break some heads would be a huge benefit to the Chiefs. That is a wrinkle I would really like for them. I know I am not the first one to think of this but put Jonathan Taylor behind Mahomes and I think NFL defensive coordinators would be calling in sick when they see the Chiefs on the schedule. 

 

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