Trivia: Fantasy Points by Young Receivers (1 Viewer)

[Adam Harstad]

I suspect many, if not most, would agree that the top 10 young fantasy stars at WR since 2000 are Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Percy Harvin, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, and Julio Jones. Everyone more or less agree? Any particular names stick out from that list as particularly undeserving?

Edit for Clarity: My goal is to create a list of recent receivers who had the most fantasy value at age 25/26/27 in recent history. Those are the 10 names I came up with.

With the youngest of that group (Julio Jones) about to begin his age 25 season, how do you think those ten players rank in terms of fantasy points (PPR scoring) at each age from 21 to 24?

Most fantasy points at age 21:

Spoiler

Harvin (188.5)

Fitzgerald (185.4)

Andre, Anquan, Brandon, Calvin, Demaryius, Dez, A.J, Julio (0.0 - not in the NFL yet)

Most fantasy points at age 22:

Spoiler

Fitzgerald (308.0)

Harvin (204.5)

Julio (203.5)

Andre (186.6)

Calvin (158.8)

Dez (137.1)

Marshall (64.1)

Anquan, Demaryius, A.J. (0.0 - not in the NFL yet)

Most fantasy points at age 23:

Spoiler

Boldin (289.7)

Calvin (283.0)

Marshall (282.2)

Harvin (265.9)

Julio (261.8)

Andre (230.4)

Green (218.0)

Dez (210.3)

Fitzgerald (199.6)

Demaryius (62.4)

Most fantasy points at age 24:

Spoiler

Green (311.8)

Dez (311.7)

Fitzgerald (300.9)

Marshall (266.1)

Calvin (202.7)

Harvin (163.3 - 9 games)

Andre (144.8 - 13 games)

Boldin (124.6 - 10 games)

Julio (111.7 - 5 games)

Demaryius (111.6 - 11 games)

Note: Julio's 5-game pace, projected over a full season, would be the top age 24 season in fantasy history. Harvin's 8-game pace, projected over a full season, would be second only to Jerry Rice

Presented without comment.

 

[Jrodicus]

Can you quantify this a bit more?

Depending on how you are defining this, I'd add Wayne, White, and Welker off the top off my head.

I'd take Harvin off the list for sure. Probably Boldin too.

 

[BroadwayG]

Boldin, Harvin and demarius stick out as the bottom 3.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Can you quantify this a bit more?

Depending on how you are defining this, I'd add Wayne, White, and Welker off the top off my head.

I'd take Harvin off the list for sure. Probably Boldin too.

I was trying to think of guys who were viewed as top-tier fantasy studs by age 26 or so, like Dez/Demaryius/Green/Julio currently are. No hard or fast rules in defining the list. I started with the list of guys sorted by fantasy points through age 25, and then for entirely subjective reasons removed guys like DJax, Santonio, Maclin, and Lee Evans, because they've never been perceived as "Tier 1" dynasty receivers, as well as cleaning out Braylon Edwards as a 1-year wonder. I also added in Julio and Demaryius, even though they didn't merit it strictly on their fantasy points (largely because of injury), because it always feels wrong to do any analysis that includes A.J. Green and Dez Bryant but excludes Julio and DT.

White, Wayne, and Welker were all late bloomers (barely fantasy relevant before age 26). Boldin absolutely belongs on the list- the guy was without question a tier-1 Dynasty Superstar at receiver by the end of his age-25 season, and very deservedly so. I figured that many would say that Harvin didn't belong, which was kind of the point I was trying to make- did you see where he ranks on all of those lists? He absolutely belongs.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Boldin, Harvin and demarius stick out as the bottom 3.

Most points at age 21. 2nd out of 10 at age 22. 4th out of 10 at age 23. On pace for the 2nd best age-24 season in history (behind Jerry Rice) before injury struck. Tell me how Harvin sticks out as one of the bottom three? Given the benefit of pro-ration, he scored more points than A.J. Green and Dez Bryant at every single age. No other receiver topped him in more than one of the four seasons. I would say, based strictly on age-sorted production, Percy Harvin has the STRONGEST resume of the batch. Maybe second behind Fitzgerald.

That's the point I was driving at. There's this huge perception that Percy Harvin is a massively inferior fantasy player to the rest of these guys. In terms of fantasy points scored, that perception is wildly at odds with reality. Percy Harvin has repeatedly outscored all of these tier-1 studs at every age.

 

[BroadwayG]

Could you extrapolate Harvin's 25 year old season and compare with the rest?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you extrapolate Harvin's 25 year old season and compare with the rest?

I would gladly compare it to Jamaal Charles' 25-year-old season, if you'd like.

The "Harvin is valued low because he missed last year" argument is a red herring. Percy Harvin was never perceived as a tier-1 receiver, even before missing last year. Going into last year, Percy Harvin was being drafted in the late 2nd round of startup drafts after missing half of his age-24 season. Going into this year, Julio Jones is being drafted in the middle of the 1st round of startup drafts after missing 3/4ths of his age-24 season. This despite the fact that Percy Harvin had a better season than Julio Jones at every single age, and the fact that Julio Jones injury was a recurring injury, while Harvin's was a fluke.

Missing last year is a convenient reason to underrate him even more, but it's not a very good explanation of why he was so underrated in the first place. How many guys could be the #1 HS player in the nation, put up a season of 150 yards per game (and another season of 17 TDs) in college while earning a reputation as one of the most dominant talents in the nation, get drafted in the 1st round, win offensive rookie of the year, put up an 8th place fantasy finish at age 23, earn legitimate MVP consideration at age 24 for one of the most dominant half-seasons by a young WR in history... and not be considered a tier-1 talent?

 

[dickey moe]

We all know you have a major jones for Harvin (so do I) but I don't think his production puts him on this list. If anything, you're valuing potential. His injury history hasn't helped his case either.

 

[BroadwayG]

Were the migraines recurring or were those flukes?

 

[dickey moe]

Could you extrapolate Harvin's 25 year old season and compare with the rest?

How many guys could be the #1 HS player in the nation, put up a season of 150 yards per game (and another season of 17 TDs) in college while earning a reputation as one of the most dominant talents in the nation, get drafted in the 1st round, win offensive rookie of the year, put up an 8th place fantasy finish at age 23, earn legitimate MVP consideration at age 24 for one of the most dominant half-seasons by a young WR in history... and not be considered a tier-1 talent?

Because that resume hasn't translated to top-tier NFL-level production, yet.

 

[Sweet Love]

Were the migraines recurring or were those flukes?

He got meds/treatment for them, and they have not been an issue since...he likely did not havee the $$/resources to deal with it when he was younger.

 

[Jrodicus]

Can you quantify this a bit more?

Depending on how you are defining this, I'd add Wayne, White, and Welker off the top off my head.

I'd take Harvin off the list for sure. Probably Boldin too.

I was trying to think of guys who were viewed as top-tier fantasy studs by age 26 or so, like Dez/Demaryius/Green/Julio currently are. No hard or fast rules in defining the list. I started with the list of guys sorted by fantasy points through age 25, and then for entirely subjective reasons removed guys like DJax, Santonio, Maclin, and Lee Evans, because they've never been perceived as "Tier 1" dynasty receivers, as well as cleaning out Braylon Edwards as a 1-year wonder. I also added in Julio and Demaryius, even though they didn't merit it strictly on their fantasy points (largely because of injury), because it always feels wrong to do any analysis that includes A.J. Green and Dez Bryant but excludes Julio and DT.

White, Wayne, and Welker were all late bloomers (barely fantasy relevant before age 26). Boldin absolutely belongs on the list- the guy was without question a tier-1 Dynasty Superstar at receiver by the end of his age-25 season, and very deservedly so. I figured that many would say that Harvin didn't belong, which was kind of the point I was trying to make- did you see where he ranks on all of those lists? He absolutely belongs.

I think you'd be better off looking at number of seaons in the league as opposed to age. Wayne was 22 when he played his first NFL game; Roddy White was 23. Wayne had a breakout year in his 4th season; White had a breakout year in his 3rd season, just like Dez and DT did (and probably some others on your list) - he just was a couple years older when he did it.

Even though Harvin may have been "viewed" as a top young WR by many, he statistically has never been a top WR in the NFL. Yes, he scored well in fantasy in 2011 (the only season he played all 16 games), but he didn't even have 1,000 yards receiving. Sure, he was a great weapon for his team, but he was not an elite receiver compared to the rest of the league.

 

[BroadwayG]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

 

[Jrodicus]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Were the migraines recurring or were those flukes?

His migraines were a result of undiagnosed sleep apnea. It has since been diagnosed and treated. This was all known by 2012. Harvin hasn't had a migraine in years. It's a complete non-issue.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you extrapolate Harvin's 25 year old season and compare with the rest?

How many guys could be the #1 HS player in the nation, put up a season of 150 yards per game (and another season of 17 TDs) in college while earning a reputation as one of the most dominant talents in the nation, get drafted in the 1st round, win offensive rookie of the year, put up an 8th place fantasy finish at age 23, earn legitimate MVP consideration at age 24 for one of the most dominant half-seasons by a young WR in history... and not be considered a tier-1 talent?

Because that resume hasn't translated to top-tier NFL-level production, yet.

Really? One of 8 players to win ORoY at age 21 (Barry, Emmitt, Edgerrin, Bettis, Portis, Faulk, Moss- not too shabby of a list). An 8th place fantasy finish at age 23. On pace for the second-best fantasy season by a 24-year-old in history, behind some Jerry Rice dude. 112/1492/11 in his last 16 games in Minnesota. Harvin had more fantasy points in his last 16 games in Minnesota than Josh Gordon has in his last 16 games in Cleveland. This isn't top-tier NFL-level production?

That's the point. Percy Harvin has produced just as much- if not more!- than the other Tier 1 studs. He has. This is a demonstrable and verifiable fact.

 

[BroadwayG]

Or maybe he has and we don't know about it because he has been injured for 2 years.

 

[jurb26]

Using this arbitrary age factor rather than simply years in the NFL seems like a clear effort to skew results in favor of Harvin. Far too few guys are in the NFL, including the list here, by age 21 for this to be a fair evaluation.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think you'd be better off looking at number of seaons in the league as opposed to age. Wayne was 22 when he played his first NFL game; Roddy White was 23. Wayne had a breakout year in his 4th season; White had a breakout year in his 3rd season, just like Dez and DT did (and probably some others on your list) - he just was a couple years older when he did it.

Even though Harvin may have been "viewed" as a top young WR by many, he statistically has never been a top WR in the NFL. Yes, he scored well in fantasy in 2011 (the only season he played all 16 games), but he didn't even have 1,000 yards receiving. Sure, he was a great weapon for his team, but he was not an elite receiver compared to the rest of the league.

Why is number of seasons better than age? If a guy enters the league young, it means he dominated college at an extremely early age, wasn't redshirted, and was good enough to come out after three years. If a guy enters the league at an older age, it means he got redshirted and took four years to amass an impressive enough resume to jump to the league. Why should Percy Harvin be punished for the fact that when he was 21 years old, he was busy putting up nearly 1,000 yards and earning ORoY playing against 26-30 year old NFL stars in their prime, while A.J. Green was putting up just 808 receptions and 6 TDs against inferior college talent?

As for Harvin not being an elite "receiver" and never having 1,000 yards receiving... so? At age 24, Percy Harvin had already set the career record for most rushing yards by a WR in NFL history (previous record-holder: Jerry Rice). When last we saw him, he was busy being the leading rusher on either team in the Superbowl. You can't just wave your hands and white-wash away his rushing value. I mean, you might as well point out that Michael Vick "only" passed for 2500 yards in 2006... when he rushed for over 1000 yards and was the #2 QB in fantasy football. Harvin is a very different player than A.J. Green. Analyzing him through the same lens that you'd use for Green does Harvin a huge disservice, just like analyzing Green through the same lens you'd use for Harvin would do him a huge disservice (I mean, Green only tied for 71st in YAC per reception last year! What a scrub.)

Besides, I think a lot of the concerns about Harvin as a receiver are tied to how much of a mess Minnesota's passing game was. In 2012, Minnesota's QBs had a passer rating of 102 when throwing to Harvin. The second-best WR was Michael Jenkins, who drew a passer rating of just 72. Minnesota's passing game was brutal, so they made it easy for their QBs by having them just toss short screens to Harvin and letting him pull something out of his hindquarters. And Harvin did! In his rookie year, when they had a real QB, they used Harvin much more down the field and in traditional pass patterns. And the dude won offensive rookie of the year and produced more fantasy points than any other 21-year-old WR except for Randy Moss.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

 

[BroadwayG]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points over 70 games 8.9 average

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points over 55 games 9.9 average

Jones 21-25 = 402 points over 34 games 11.8 average

Bryant 21-25 = 554 points over 47 games 11.8 average

Green 21-25 = 565 points over 47 games 12.0 average

It looks like the upgrade from Nicks to Harvin is half as much as Harvin to the elite guys.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Using this arbitrary age factor rather than simply years in the NFL seems like a clear effort to skew results in favor of Harvin. Far too few guys are in the NFL, including the list here, by age 21 for this to be a fair evaluation.

How does a guy get into the NFL at age 21? He dominates college from the second he sets foot on the field, skipping his redshirt. He dominates enough to get drafted in three years.

Age is absolutely a better metric than years in the league, in my mind. Guys who enter the league later get extra years to hone their craft. You'd never compare Aaron Rodgers against Drew Brees based on "seasons as a starter", would you? Of course not- Aaron Rodgers had years to sit and learn and hone his craft without all of those early struggles tanking his numbers. It's not a fair comparison. Similarly, A.J. Green had two additional years to add strength, develop his craft against SEC defenders, get coaching, and just develop physically. By his first year in the league, he was two years older, two years stronger, two years more practiced, and two years more developed than Percy Harvin. Hardly seems like a direct 1-to-1 comparison.

Rotoviz has done a lot of great work quantifying the importance of age this offseason. The age a guy breaks out is absolutely important. It's much more difficult for Sammy Watkins to step on the field at age 18 and become a first-team All American against older and more experienced players than it is for a 22-year-old 5th-year Senior.

 

[jurb26]

It's rather obvious why age isn't important at this point. Harvin entering the NFL younger has no impact on if he is better, today. Green is clearly a far better player and WR right now and it's highly likely he will be going forward. In reality, you are basing your opinion that the age thing is important on the fact that when they were toddlers Harvin's parents put him in school earlier than Green's. You say Harvin was beating up on NFL players while AJ was playing (funny how you tried to slip that dig in there to diminish AJ in college based on his stats as if it means anything now) in the NCAA. The reality is, both left the NCAA to go the the NFL as soon as the rules allowed them, after 3 years from high school. Both dominated from day one at their respective schools as true freshman. Actually, no only Green dominated from day 1. This has nothing to do with their talent level. It has to do with when they started school as kids. It's meaningless.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points

Age 21: 162.8 fantasy points (3rd behind Harvin/Fitz)

Age 22: 250.2 fantasy points (2nd behind Fitz, bumping Harvin down to 3rd)

Age 23: 233.9 fantasy points (6th, with Harvin staying at 4th)

Age 24: 140.2 fantasy points (23 points fewer than Percy Harvin, despite Harvin playing four fewer games)

Totals for age 21-24: 787.1 for Nicks, 822.2 for Harvin

So despite Harvin having more fantasy points in three of the four seasons, and more fantasy points overall, and a comparable number of career games missed due to injury, Hakeem Nicks was seen as a Tier 1 Superstar and Percy Harvin never was. Which is kind of my point in a nutshell.

 

[Xue]

People still easily discard age as meaningless eh?

I think Harvin has always been a bit overrated because he's been less of "true" WR without Favre. His YPR has been on the decline the last few years excluding 2013. In 2011 and 2012 his aDOT have been 5.9 and 4.3.

People don't see him in that Tier 1 because his stats are "padded".

 

[jurb26]

People still easily discard age as meaningless eh?

If we were talking about a 21 yr old rookie vs a 23 yr old rookie it wouldn't be. We aren't discussing that though.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's rather obvious why age isn't important at this point. Harvin entering the NFL younger has no impact on if he is better, today. Green is clearly a far better player and WR right now and it's highly likely he will be going forward. In reality, you are basing your opinion that the age thing is important on the fact that when they were toddlers Harvin's parents put him in school earlier than Green's. You say Harvin was beating up on NFL players while AJ was playing (funny how you tried to slip that dig in there to diminish AJ in college based on his stats as if it means anything now) in the NCAA. The reality is, both left the NCAA to go the the NFL as soon as the rules allowed them, after 3 years from high school. Both dominated from day one at their respective schools as true freshman. Actually, no only Green dominated from day 1. This has nothing to do with their talent level. It has to do with when they started school as kids. It's meaningless.

I'm not talking about stats in a predictive sense, I'm talking about stats in a descriptive sense. I'm not saying that Demaryius is the least talented WR of those 10 just because he had the worst fantasy start to his career. My point is that Percy Harvin's production is every single bit as impressive as A.J. Green's, if not more so. Percy Harvin produced more points at every age than Green.

Do you think the fact that Green dominated earlier in college than Harvin had anything to do with the fact that he was two years older than Harvin as a freshman? Why do you think the little league world series has age limits? It couldn't possibly be because older boys are more physically developed and therefore have a massive competitive advantage over their younger peers? How do you think A.J. Green would have done if he were a true college freshman at age 18? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "worse than he did as a 20-year-old freshman". At age 18, he would have been facing players who were bigger, stronger, and more developed than he was. At 20, he had the luxury of going up against players that were the same age as he was.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points over 70 games 8.9 average

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points over 55 games 9.9 average

Jones 21-25 = 402 points over 34 games 11.8 average

Bryant 21-25 = 554 points over 47 games 11.8 average

Green 21-25 = 565 points over 47 games 12.0 average

It looks like the upgrade from Nicks to Harvin is half as much as Harvin to the elite guys.

Aaron Rodgers PPG from age 22-25: 21.60

Peyton Manning PPG from age 22-25: 19.79

Pay no attention to the fact that Aaron Rodgers spent three of those four years sitting on the bench perfecting his craft, while Peyton Manning got thrown into the fire from day one and had to muddle it out.

 

[BroadwayG]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points over 70 games 8.9 average

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points over 55 games 9.9 average

Jones 21-25 = 402 points over 34 games 11.8 average

Bryant 21-25 = 554 points over 47 games 11.8 average

Green 21-25 = 565 points over 47 games 12.0 average

It looks like the upgrade from Nicks to Harvin is half as much as Harvin to the elite guys.

Aaron Rodgers PPG from age 22-25: 21.60

Peyton Manning PPG from age 22-25: 19.79

Pay no attention to the fact that Aaron Rodgers spent three of those four years sitting on the bench perfecting his craft, while Peyton Manning got thrown into the fire from day one and had to muddle it out.

You are missing vital statistics in the total points and number of games played in your Rodgers/Manning comparison.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points over 70 games 8.9 average

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points over 55 games 9.9 average

Jones 21-25 = 402 points over 34 games 11.8 average

Bryant 21-25 = 554 points over 47 games 11.8 average

Green 21-25 = 565 points over 47 games 12.0 average

It looks like the upgrade from Nicks to Harvin is half as much as Harvin to the elite guys.

Also, you keep conveniently ignoring the fact that I've made it clear every single time that I'm talking about PPR.

Fantasy PPG from age 21-24:

Nicks: 14.31

Dez: 15.09

Harvin: 15.22

Green: 16.76

Julio: 16.97

 

[Adam Harstad]

Could you also compare Nicks and Harvin? They came into the league together.

I forgot about Nicks. That's a good one to add to the list of guys that had great WR seasons when they were young and had a lot of hype around them.

Yeah, Nicks was definitely a guy I considered adding. He probably deserves to be on there- he was certainly seen as a Tier 1 stud after his early seasons in the league, although his value was already falling apart by age 24. I'll add his numbers in a bit for comparison.

Nicks 21-25 = 625 fantasy points over 70 games 8.9 average

Harvin 21-25 = 545 fantasy points over 55 games 9.9 average

Jones 21-25 = 402 points over 34 games 11.8 average

Bryant 21-25 = 554 points over 47 games 11.8 average

Green 21-25 = 565 points over 47 games 12.0 average

It looks like the upgrade from Nicks to Harvin is half as much as Harvin to the elite guys.

Aaron Rodgers PPG from age 22-25: 21.60

Peyton Manning PPG from age 22-25: 19.79

Pay no attention to the fact that Aaron Rodgers spent three of those four years sitting on the bench perfecting his craft, while Peyton Manning got thrown into the fire from day one and had to muddle it out.

You are missing vital statistics in the total points and number of games played in your Rodgers/Manning comparison.

Right. And Percy Harvin dominates Green/Julio/Dez in games played and total points from age 21-24, just like Manning dominates Rodgers from age 22-25.

 

[jurb26]

It's rather obvious why age isn't important at this point. Harvin entering the NFL younger has no impact on if he is better, today. Green is clearly a far better player and WR right now and it's highly likely he will be going forward. In reality, you are basing your opinion that the age thing is important on the fact that when they were toddlers Harvin's parents put him in school earlier than Green's. You say Harvin was beating up on NFL players while AJ was playing (funny how you tried to slip that dig in there to diminish AJ in college based on his stats as if it means anything now) in the NCAA. The reality is, both left the NCAA to go the the NFL as soon as the rules allowed them, after 3 years from high school. Both dominated from day one at their respective schools as true freshman. Actually, no only Green dominated from day 1. This has nothing to do with their talent level. It has to do with when they started school as kids. It's meaningless.

I'm not talking about stats in a predictive sense, I'm talking about stats in a descriptive sense. I'm not saying that Demaryius is the least talented WR of those 10 just because he had the worst fantasy start to his career. My point is that Percy Harvin's production is every single bit as impressive as A.J. Green's, if not more so. Percy Harvin produced more points at every age than Green.

Do you think the fact that Green dominated earlier in college than Harvin had anything to do with the fact that he was two years older than Harvin as a freshman? Why do you think the little league world series has age limits? It couldn't possibly be because older boys are more physically developed and therefore have a massive competitive advantage over their younger peers? How do you think A.J. Green would have done if he were a true college freshman at age 18? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "worse than he did as a 20-year-old freshman". At age 18, he would have been facing players who were bigger, stronger, and more developed than he was. At 20, he had the luxury of going up against players that were the same age as he was.

I don't disagree with this, but it has nothing to do with the point. Who is the better player today? These guys, today, are about as fully developed as they are going to get. Hopping in this time machine to speculate on what would have happened 4 or 5 years ago means little now. We have seen Green in the NFL for 3 seasons now and Harvin for 5. There's enough of a sample size to go on so that we don't have to use college as a barometer any more. The fact of the matter is that they are nearly the same age and development for either at this point is remote. They pretty much are who they are.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's rather obvious why age isn't important at this point. Harvin entering the NFL younger has no impact on if he is better, today. Green is clearly a far better player and WR right now and it's highly likely he will be going forward. In reality, you are basing your opinion that the age thing is important on the fact that when they were toddlers Harvin's parents put him in school earlier than Green's. You say Harvin was beating up on NFL players while AJ was playing (funny how you tried to slip that dig in there to diminish AJ in college based on his stats as if it means anything now) in the NCAA. The reality is, both left the NCAA to go the the NFL as soon as the rules allowed them, after 3 years from high school. Both dominated from day one at their respective schools as true freshman. Actually, no only Green dominated from day 1. This has nothing to do with their talent level. It has to do with when they started school as kids. It's meaningless.

I'm not talking about stats in a predictive sense, I'm talking about stats in a descriptive sense. I'm not saying that Demaryius is the least talented WR of those 10 just because he had the worst fantasy start to his career. My point is that Percy Harvin's production is every single bit as impressive as A.J. Green's, if not more so. Percy Harvin produced more points at every age than Green.

Do you think the fact that Green dominated earlier in college than Harvin had anything to do with the fact that he was two years older than Harvin as a freshman? Why do you think the little league world series has age limits? It couldn't possibly be because older boys are more physically developed and therefore have a massive competitive advantage over their younger peers? How do you think A.J. Green would have done if he were a true college freshman at age 18? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "worse than he did as a 20-year-old freshman". At age 18, he would have been facing players who were bigger, stronger, and more developed than he was. At 20, he had the luxury of going up against players that were the same age as he was.

I don't disagree with this, but it has nothing to do with the point. Who is the better player today? These guys, today, are about as fully developed as they are going to get. Hopping in this time machine to speculate on what would have happened 4 or 5 years ago means little now. We have seen Green in the NFL for 3 seasons now and Harvin for 5. There's enough of a sample size to go on so that we don't have to use college as a barometer any more. The fact of the matter is that they are nearly the same age and development for either at this point is remote. They pretty much are who they are.

And who Harvin is is a guy who fetched more in trade than Brandon Marshall, signed a top-5 contract for his position, dominated in the SB, and earned serious MVP consideration the last time he saw the field for an extended period. Seems pretty talented to me.

Is Green better? I think so, though I don't think it's a huge difference. They're very different players, but I think they both rank among the elite receivers in the NFL. Is Green going to be more productive from a fantasy standpoint? That's a much different question. Harvin's 200 annual rushing yards are a pretty nice trump card to have in your back pocket. I'd certainly bet on A.J. Green, but I've got Green as my #1 WR in dynasty. My point was never "Percy Harvin is better and more talented than A.J. Green and will score more fantasy points than him forever and ever amen". My point was always "Hey guys, why the heck has everyone always been so resistant to the idea that Percy Harvin might be a Tier 1 dynasty talent when everything about his production and history certainly profiles as one?"

 

[BroadwayG]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

 

[jurb26]

It's also worth noting that Green has been in the NFL for 3 years and made 3 Pro Bowls and 2 All Pro teams. Harvin has been in the NFL for 5 seasons and made 1 Pro Bowl and 1 All Pro team, as a returner.

 

[matttyl]

You had me at Harvin......

 

[jurb26]

My point was always "Hey guys, why the heck has everyone always been so resistant to the idea that Percy Harvin might be a Tier 1 dynasty talent when everything about his production and history certainly profiles as one?"

I think the reason for this is fear of injury and Harvin never really breaking out as a true WR. Even though he has had some very good fantasy seasons those seasons were aided by rushing numbers. Right or wrong, many people don't see rushing impacts for WRs as sustainable IMO.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

 

[Adam Harstad]

My point was always "Hey guys, why the heck has everyone always been so resistant to the idea that Percy Harvin might be a Tier 1 dynasty talent when everything about his production and history certainly profiles as one?"

I think the reason for this is fear of injury and Harvin never really breaking out as a true WR. Even though he has had some very good fantasy seasons those seasons were aided by rushing numbers. Right or wrong, many people don't see rushing impacts for WRs as sustainable IMO.

I think this is exactly it. I also think it's wrong to think about Harvin like other traditional WRs. If, say, Mike Wallace had 200 rushing yards in a season, I'd call that a fluke. For Harvin, though, it's clear by now that it's not a fluke, it's a core component of what he brings to the table. The dude was an RB in college. He had nearly as many rushing yards in college as Shonn Greene (at 9.5 yards per carry, to boot!). He already owns the NFL record for most career rushing yards by a WR, and has done so ever since he was 24. He was just the leading rusher in the Superbowl, on either team.

 

[matttyl]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

He never had a 1,000 yard receiving season. I know, dumb answer depending on the league scoring dynamics and such, but I'm sure it played a part.

Oh, and never more than 6 receiving TDs.

 

[BroadwayG]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

Injury concerns.

 

[jurb26]

My point was always "Hey guys, why the heck has everyone always been so resistant to the idea that Percy Harvin might be a Tier 1 dynasty talent when everything about his production and history certainly profiles as one?"

I think the reason for this is fear of injury and Harvin never really breaking out as a true WR. Even though he has had some very good fantasy seasons those seasons were aided by rushing numbers. Right or wrong, many people don't see rushing impacts for WRs as sustainable IMO.

I think this is exactly it. I also think it's wrong to think about Harvin like other traditional WRs. If, say, Mike Wallace had 200 rushing yards in a season, I'd call that a fluke. For Harvin, though, it's clear by now that it's not a fluke, it's a core component of what he brings to the table. The dude was an RB in college. He had nearly as many rushing yards in college as Shonn Greene (at 9.5 yards per carry, to boot!). He already owns the NFL record for most career rushing yards by a WR, and has done so ever since he was 24. He was just the leading rusher in the Superbowl, on either team.

Well, the fear is well founded. Harvin has missed 25 games in 5 seasons. He's completed a full season only once. He's kind of earned a label of not being reliable over the years. Does that mean he will miss time in the future? No, there is no guarantee of that. Of course it doesn't matter. It's in the psychy of most fantasy players. The rushing portion may or may not be sustainable. I guess we'll see. Harvin is a unique player with a unique skill set. That is both good and bad if you ask me. I think Harvin can certainly continue to make an impact running the ball but I also think he's unlikely to ever be a true WR1 in the NFL. So, while his rushing potential offers a bonus, his receiving potential may be capped. I believe many feel this way as well and thus his value is suppressed by it.

I do find it odd that your support for Harvin running the ball is so admit while you don't hold the same optimism for Patterson.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

He never had a 1,000 yard receiving season. I know, dumb answer depending on the league scoring dynamics and such, but I'm sure it played a part.

Oh, and never more than 6 receiving TDs.

Yeah. People are absolutely blind to his rushing numbers, which is silly because they score the same as receiving numbers.

I really think Julio Jones is the best comparison here. At age 21, Harvin was busy winning ORoY and having the 2nd-best fantasy season by a 21-year-old WR in history. Julio Jones was still in college. At age 22, Harvin had 204 points in 14 games and Julio had 203 points in 13 games. At age 23, both played a full year, and Harvin had 266 while Jones had 262. At age 24, Harvin was on pace for the 2nd-best season in history before he missed the final 7 games, while Julio was on pace for the best season in history before he missed the final 11 games. Extremely, extremely similar fantasy production from age 22-24, with Harvin having that ORoY trump card at age 21. Harvin's injury was a one-time deal, while Julio's was a recurring injury. At that point, Harvin had missed 10 games in four seasons, while Julio had missed 14 games in three seasons. And yet, despite all of this, Julio's ADP in startups heading into his age 25 season is mid-1st, while Harvin's ADP heading into his age 25 season was late-2nd.

There's absolutely been a double standard in the fantasy community's treatment of Percy Harvin.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Michael Clayton

 

[Adam Harstad]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

Injury concerns.

Percy Harvin had missed 10 games in 4 years. Julio Jones has missed 13 games in 3 years, yet he's still ranked among the tier 1 receivers. Guess again.

 

[jurb26]

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

He never had a 1,000 yard receiving season. I know, dumb answer depending on the league scoring dynamics and such, but I'm sure it played a part.Oh, and never more than 6 receiving TDs.

Yeah. People are absolutely blind to his rushing numbers, which is silly because they score the same as receiving numbers.

I really think Julio Jones is the best comparison here. At age 21, Harvin was busy winning ORoY and having the 2nd-best fantasy season by a 21-year-old WR in history. Julio Jones was still in college. At age 22, Harvin had 204 points in 14 games and Julio had 203 points in 13 games. At age 23, both played a full year, and Harvin had 266 while Jones had 262. At age 24, Harvin was on pace for the 2nd-best season in history before he missed the final 7 games, while Julio was on pace for the best season in history before he missed the final 11 games. Extremely, extremely similar fantasy production from age 22-24, with Harvin having that ORoY trump card at age 21. Harvin's injury was a one-time deal, while Julio's was a recurring injury. At that point, Harvin had missed 10 games in four seasons, while Julio had missed 14 games in three seasons. And yet, despite all of this, Julio's ADP in startups heading into his age 25 season is mid-1st, while Harvin's ADP heading into his age 25 season was late-2nd.

There's absolutely been a double standard in the fantasy community's treatment of Percy Harvin.

Julio has shown far more potential as a true WR1 than Harvin. I don't think it's a double standard.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The rushing portion may or may not be sustainable. I guess we'll see. Harvin is a unique player with a unique skill set. That is both good and bad if you ask me. I think Harvin can certainly continue to make an impact running the ball but I also think he's unlikely to ever be a true WR1 in the NFL. So, while his rushing potential offers a bonus, his receiving potential may be capped. I believe many feel this way as well and thus his value is suppressed by it.

I do find it odd that your support for Harvin running the ball is so admit while you don't hold the same optimism for Patterson.

I think Harvin was pretty clearly an NFL #1 receiver over the 2nd half of 2011 and the 1st half of 2012. Dude led the league in receptions and was 5th in receiving yards over the first half of the season.

I actually *AM* optimistic about Patterson's rushing yards. I honestly think it's the biggest thing he has going for him as a fantasy receiver. I've said all along that he's a beast with the ball in his hands. To the extent that I'm low on Patterson, it's because I question him as a receiver in a way I have never questioned Percy Harvin. He needs to get better without the ball in his hands.

Also, I think you overrate how down I am on Patterson. There's a difference between saying "I think he's a quality prospect with huge upside, but he's still a relative unknown and I don't feel comfortable ranking him as a dynasty WR1" and saying "I'm not optimistic about Patterson". I had him 20th in my last rankings update, and I might bump him as high as 17th or 18th when I next update. I just traded for the dude in one dynasty league. I like him, I just think the hype has gotten out of hand.

 

[BroadwayG]

Now it's injury and scheme concerns.

Because we remember his age 25 season instead of forgetting it and not putting it into our valuation.

Okay. Now explain why his valuation was so low before his age-25 season ever happened.

Injury concerns.

Percy Harvin had missed 10 games in 4 years. Julio Jones has missed 13 games in 3 years, yet he's still ranked among the tier 1 receivers. Guess again.

That's not a guess, that's why I had him valued low. Oh yeah, holdout concerns also.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Julio has shown far more potential as a true WR1 than Harvin. I don't think it's a double standard.

Are we talking NFL football or fantasy football? Because Julio hasn't shown a drop more fantasy potential than Harvin. If anything, Harvin has shown more potential- Julio doesn't have any stretch that can match Harvin's 112/1492/11 16-game span in Minnesota.

"True WR1" is a nonsense term, anyway. Just because Harvin doesn't dominate in the same way as Julio or Green doesn't mean Harvin doesn't dominate. Wes Welker was never a "true WR1", either. He had a nontraditional skillset. Doesn't mean he wasn't a beast.

 

[Adam Harstad]

That's not a guess, that's why I had him valued low. Oh yeah, holdout concerns also.

Where'd you have him valued after his 8th-place finish at age 23 in 2011? Was that due to injury concerns, too? Those three games he'd missed in his 3-year career?

Harvin's value has consistently lagged his production at every single point of his entire career. The reasons and excuses have changed. That fact hasn't.