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Tyreek vs Keenan vs AJ Brown vs Evans (1 Viewer)

xenon

Footballguy
Finding these 4 often available at the rd 2 / rd 3 turn. W. pick # 1 and planning to take Taylor, unless certain RB's fall, I am planning on going WR/WR at the turn and wait on TE.

In PPR (assuming all 4 are avail), how would you rank them and which 2 would you take of the four and why?

Reservation w/ Tua and Hill? any other variable of concern?
Reservation w/ Hurts and AJ? any other variable of concern?
Brady hit the wall? O line issues? any other variable of concern?
Keenan may not get many TD's as Williams appears to be the greater red zone target and in my opinion, the better QB and overall offense. He's been a PPR machine and can easily generate 6 for 60 or 8 for 80

or go WR and Mark Andrews?

Thank You for the feedback....
 
Last edited:

efactor

Footballguy
Tough one, but I like them all, so that's a positive

I don't think Hill is going drop as much as most think. Granted, not in my top 3 anymore, but to see him falling into the early 3rd seems kind of crazy. Will make big plays even if they aren't 50 yard bombs. Still can be a top 5 guy

Keenon is so safe. If anyone is a "cinch" for 110 catches, it's him. Lacks the upside to be a top 5 receiver though

Evans will get double digit TDs and 1100 yards, so another safe guy, but too many options once Godwin is back to be a top 5 guy

Brown has a chance to be top 5 if Hurts has taken the next step IMO. Physical receiver with great RAC skills. Injury history is a concern of course, but has the most upside as I think he will be the man in Philly. But is also the most risky.

Hill, Brown, Evans and Keenon although Evans and Kennon are right next to each other for me.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Until Jalen Hurts proves he can consistently make reads and deliver passes accurately Brown should be in the tier below the other three.

Tyreek>Evans/Keenan depending on how your league scores PPR v TDs
 

ChicoCat

Footballguy
I don't think Brown is going to deviate much from his stat lines in TEN....even if Hurts takes another step. In a PPR, he's a bit lower than the other guys.
 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
Brown was hyper-efficient in TEN. I see his targets going way up but his efficiency going down so I honestly have not moved him much since he was traded. I still think he's an overvalued dynasty asset but his 3rd round redraft ADP seems correct.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Hurts only attempted 432 passes and only completed 61.3% with a pedestrian 7.3 Y/A

Lots of room for improvement for sure but I am absolutely downgrading AJ because of his QB.
 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Keenan may not get many TD's as Williams appears to be the greater red zone target

Consider red zone targets and receiving TDs, per PFR:
  • 2021 (Herbert, Staley)
    • Allen - 16 games, 23 RZ targets, 6 TDs
    • Williams - 16 games, 19 RZ targets, 4 TDs
  • 2020 (Herbert, Lynn)
    • Allen - 14 games, 16 RZ targets, 7 TDs
    • Williams - 15 games, 10 RZ targets, 1 TD
  • 2019 (Rivers, Lynn)
    • Allen - 16 games, 19 RZ targets, 4 TDs
    • Williams - 15 games, 15 RZ targets, 1 TD
  • 2018 (Rivers, Lynn)
    • Allen - 14 games, 14 RZ targets, 5 TDs
    • Williams - 16 games, 13 RZ targets, 6 TDs
  • Total (Herbert) - Allen 39 (30 games), Williams 29 (31 games)
    • Allen - 30 games, 39 RZ targets, 13 TDs
    • Williams - 31 games, 29 RZ targets, 5 TDs
  • Total - Allen 72 (60 games), Williams 57 (62 games)
    • Allen - 60 games, 72 RZ targets, 22 TDs
    • Williams - 62 games, 57 RZ targets, 12 TDs
To this point, Williams has not gotten more RZ targets than Allen in any season. Williams only had more RZ TDs than Allen in one season, 4 seasons ago with a different QB and head coach while playing 2 more games than Allen.

Your comment might mean you see Williams as a "greater" red zone target because of his size and ability to win contested catches, but perhaps that is offset by Allen's quickness, route running, and ability to get open quickly.

There may be valid reasons to prefer Hill, Brown, and/or Evans, but concern over Allen losing red zone opportunities to Williams doesn't seem like one of them.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Keenan may not get many TD's as Williams appears to be the greater red zone target

Consider red zone targets and receiving TDs, per PFR:
  • 2021 (Herbert, Staley)
    • Allen - 16 games, 23 RZ targets, 6 TDs
    • Williams - 16 games, 19 RZ targets, 4 TDs
  • 2020 (Herbert, Lynn)
    • Allen - 14 games, 16 RZ targets, 7 TDs
    • Williams - 15 games, 10 RZ targets, 1 TD
  • 2019 (Rivers, Lynn)
    • Allen - 16 games, 19 RZ targets, 4 TDs
    • Williams - 15 games, 15 RZ targets, 1 TD
  • 2018 (Rivers, Lynn)
    • Allen - 14 games, 14 RZ targets, 5 TDs
    • Williams - 16 games, 13 RZ targets, 6 TDs
  • Total (Herbert) - Allen 39 (30 games), Williams 29 (31 games)
    • Allen - 30 games, 39 RZ targets, 13 TDs
    • Williams - 31 games, 29 RZ targets, 5 TDs
  • Total - Allen 72 (60 games), Williams 57 (62 games)
    • Allen - 60 games, 72 RZ targets, 22 TDs
    • Williams - 62 games, 57 RZ targets, 12 TDs
To this point, Williams has not gotten more RZ targets than Allen in any season. Williams only had more RZ TDs than Allen in one season, 4 seasons ago with a different QB and head coach while playing 2 more games than Allen.

Your comment might mean you see Williams as a "greater" red zone target because of his size and ability to win contested catches, but perhaps that is offset by Allen's quickness, route running, and ability to get open quickly.

There may be valid reasons to prefer Hill, Brown, and/or Evans, but concern over Allen losing red zone opportunities to Williams doesn't seem like one of them.

Well done.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
I'm taking Evans and hoping for Godwin at the 4/5 turn and then taking Julio around the 12th. You have 5000 yd and 40 TDs available and I want every piece of that I can get. Now that I have my upside guy, I want a steady guy with a great QB playing in shootouts and that would be Allen.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Minority opinion perhaps, but I'd take Mark Andrews over any of those WR's.

As for the WRs themselves, I'd rank them:

Hill>Brown>Evans>>>Allen

Evans probably has the highest floor, as he's not adjusting to a new QB, and is likely in the best offense, but he's also got BY FAR the most target competition.

Hill probably has the highest ceiling, I think its actually possible he sees more balls in Miami than he did in KC.

Brown is somewhat dependent on the Eagles throwing the ball more often, though every indication is that they will be. He likely doesn't have Hill's ceiling or Evans floor.

I just don't view Allen as having enough upside to pick in the top-25.
 

massraider

Footballguy
I do a crazy league (24 teams, 2 separate drafts, 4 weeks of playoffs, IDP)

Playoffs are weeks 14-18.

Mike Evans: CIN, ARI, CAR, ATL

giggity giggity ohhh right
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
  1. Evans
  2. Allen
  3. Hill
  4. Brown
I have 11/14 where Diggs or Adams are usually still around. 35/38 Hill is almost always gone but I’m happy with Allen as my WR2. If Brown has bubbled up to the top of my queue I might pivot.
 

xenon

Footballguy
Tough one, but I like them all, so that's a positive

I don't think Hill is going drop as much as most think. Granted, not in my top 3 anymore, but to see him falling into the early 3rd seems kind of crazy. Will make big plays even if they aren't 50 yard bombs. Still can be a top 5 guy

Keenon is so safe. If anyone is a "cinch" for 110 catches, it's him. Lacks the upside to be a top 5 receiver though

Evans will get double digit TDs and 1100 yards, so another safe guy, but too many options once Godwin is back to be a top 5 guy

Brown has a chance to be top 5 if Hurts has taken the next step IMO. Physical receiver with great RAC skills. Injury history is a concern of course, but has the most upside as I think he will be the man in Philly. But is also the most risky.

Hill, Brown, Evans and Keenon although Evans and Kennon are right next to each other for m
Finding these 4 often available at the rd 1/ rd 2 turn
2/3=, ya?
Yes...typo...thanks for calling out...
 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
I’m picking 1 but in non PPR. Going Taylor but personally I think WR/WR on 2/3 turn is a mistake. Too many excellent WRs available in that 4-8 range. I want my 2nd RB at the turn as there is a cliff there a lot sooner than WR. 6 point TD league for all. May even go RB/QB at the turn and then load up on receivers I like afterwards. But likely RB/WR. There are a ton of receivers around 1000/6. Don’t have to pay up for big names. Of that group in my scoring I’m going Evans. Then waiting.
 

xenon

Footballguy
I’m picking 1 but in non PPR. Going Taylor but personally I think WR/WR on 2/3 turn is a mistake. Too many excellent WRs available in that 4-8 range. I want my 2nd RB at the turn as there is a cliff there a lot sooner than WR. 6 point TD league for all. May even go RB/QB at the turn and then load up on receivers I like afterwards. But likely RB/WR. There are a ton of receivers around 1000/6. Don’t have to pay up for big names. Of that group in my scoring I’m going Evans. Then waiting.
Amongst those RB's in PPR w/ ADP at 2.12 or 3.1 or thereabouts, what 2 or 3 RB's are you hoping will be there, how do you rank them and who do you prefer and why?
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I'm taking Evans and hoping for Godwin at the 4/5 turn and then taking Julio around the 12th. You have 5000 yd and 40 TDs available and I want every piece of that I can get. Now that I have my upside guy, I want a steady guy with a great QB playing in shootouts and that would be Allen.
Let's talk,I've been kicking this around as well but I want to express my dislike for the supporting cast at WR this year. Julio Jones is done, toast, put him out to pasture. It's possible a guy like Brady can squeeze a little something more out but this is not like Antonio Brown and what he could do to the Offense behind Evans and Godwin. Gage doesn't impress me and I think Brady will quickly lose trust in him.

So I think Evans and Godwin will get a ton of targets but I am not super high on the Bucs repeating what we have seen the past 2 years, hope I'm wrong since they are the only team besides Miami I root for.

But Evans on the 2/3 turn, Godwin a round or two later as your WR3 perhaps and you have something to hurt your opponents with except when Brady might be falling off the cliff a smidge on his bon voyage tour before he heads down to Miami.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Huge fan of AJ Brown who is still really young and hasn't been in the NFL that long. Career numbers are certainly on the menu for a potential 2022. Some folks shy away when a WR lands on a new team but I'm not sure Tannehill to Hurts is a huge step back. Slim Reaper drawing coverage on the other side and some other weapons lurking and AJB should hit the Top 10-12 easily if he stays off the injury report most of the year. I'm excited to see how he responds and the easy schedule should make it fun for him to feast many weeks.

Like others have mentioned, most of these names are strong options especially if they happen to be your WR2 behind Jefferson/Kupp/Chase etc...
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Hurts only attempted 432 passes and only completed 61.3% with a pedestrian 7.3 Y/A

Lots of room for improvement for sure but I am absolutely downgrading AJ because of his QB.

That number is going to go way up
Which one?

All of them
Considering they were 25th or worse on all of them, except Y/A, that isn't saying much.

They could throw 100 more passes and still only be 18th in the league.

And what is the incentive to pass more? They were a terrible team until they decided to be the heaviest run offense in the league in week 8 and they went 7-3 from that point on.

Sure they'll throw more and Hurts may be more efficient but I wouldn't hang my hat on a sea change in offensive philosophy.

Also, AJ didn't have a WR & TE in Tennessee that come anywhere close to Devonte & Goedert so he will have to continue his ultra-efficient ways without an ultra-efficient QB to match.
 

Saint

Footballguy
  1. Evans
  2. Allen
  3. Hill
  4. Brown
I agree with this. I think Evans and Allen have the highest floors out of all of these guys and will get you consistent points week over week. Right now, I am slightly concerned on Hill playing with Tua, I anticipate a regression for him from what he had with Mahomes merely from QB play. Same for Brown. Looking in the playoffs, Hurts had some rough games with his throwing accuracy. I love the upside of Brown, but that means we have all stated that Hurts will be efficient and accurate and I think that is large assumption we are all making.

If I'm at the 2/3 turn, which means I took JT/CMC and shored up the RB, I am looking for consistency at WR1 and to me that's Evans or Allen with the highest floor. I would love Brown later on, but not early 3rd IMO.
 

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