Ubaldo Jiminez (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

I am in my first year, redraft 5x5; I own Jiminez and have a decent staff to go along with him (sans strikeouts). As I said, I am new to Fantasy Baseball, but played many years of Fantasy Football. When a guy puts up "out of this world" type numbers partway through the season, there is always the thought, "this train could break down". No one has even approached me for a trade at this point wether because they think they will have to give away the farm to obtain him, or because they just think he is untouchable in my eyes.

Again this is directed to redraft, but I would gladly take Licecum and a bat in exchange for Jiminez...maybe I am crazy (that is kind of what I am asking), but I am also looking for guidance in the way that how long can someone keep up his pace?? Maybe (for all I know) this is typical for an elite pitcher on the rise, but it is a wicked pace and I am guessing things have to change at some point, correct?

 

[bweiser]

You will probably have to put it out there that you have interesting in trading him to help yourself elsewhere. Most owners aren't going to try to trade for someone who's doing that well unless they know the owner is willing to make a move. Otherwise, you fear every offer you make will be viewed as an insult.

What SHOULD you do? I don't know.

Ubaldo's BABIP right now is .223. His FIP is 2.62 and his xFIP is 3.51. His LOB% is 94.2. His HR/FB is an amazing 1.6%.

I copy and pasted that from Rotojunkie. They seem to believe those numbers indicate he's been extremely lucky this year. I don't know enough about these new-fangled stats. If you do, maybe that will help you make your decision.

If you can get Lincecum (although he's struggling) and a bat, I think you should do that. That's just my .02

Personally, I believe Ubaldo is going to finish the year with spectacular numbers. 23-25 wins is not out of his reach at this point.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Ubaldo's BABIP right now is .223. His FIP is 2.62 and his xFIP is 3.51. His LOB% is 94.2. His HR/FB is an amazing 1.6%.I copy and pasted that from Rotojunkie. They seem to believe those numbers indicate he's been extremely lucky this year. I don't know enough about these new-fangled stats. If you do, maybe that will help you make your decision.

For reference...BABIP is batting average on balls in play. Pitchers have minimal control over it and it tends to normalize around .300. So Ubaldo has been lucky there.FIP is fielding independent pitching, an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA should be based on what he can control.xFIP attempts to further expand FIP by normalizing the HR/FB%. I'm not sure how I feel about this one.My thoughts... Ubaldo is both really good and really lucky. He's a top 5 pitcher who happens to be getting every break as well.Personally I would trade him straight up for Lincecum, although I don't think that would be an amazing deal or anything. Getting a bat with it would.

 

[shadyridr]

Ubaldo throws a 98 mph 2 seam fastball. Thats unhittable

 

[guru_007]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

Batting average for balls put into play is out of his control....except for the fact that hitters are getting lucky to put the ball in play against him. I've seen 5 or 6 starts for Jiminez this year, and in every one he has been awesome. He throws 97-98 in the first, 97-98 in the 8th. Against Lincecum, he was routinely 6-7 mph faster using the same gun. His control has been very good and he keeps the ball down.

Do I expect him to end the season with an ERA under 1? No. But, I don't see any reason why he doesn't continue to dominate all season long. Plus, the Rockies have a much better defensive team behind him than lets say the Giants.

Two things that could factor against Ubaldo:

-Pitch counts are running high. No idea why they're running him out there against the Nats in the 8th inning over 100 pitches so early in the season. I don't have his counts in front of me, nor do I feel like looking them up, but he's got to be up there in the majors right now, and I'd be slightly concerned about the way he is being handled.

-Coors in the summer isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

You also have to think of it like this. The Lincecum owner drafted him probably in the first round, or early second. I don't think he necessarily gives up on him, nor offer him AND a bat for another starter. Lincecum has won back to back Cy Youngs, so I'd certainly expect the owner to not want to go chasing right now.

If you can get a stud bat and a stud pitcher for him, then that's a trade you may want to pursue. Reasons no one has approached you with a trade is because everyone knows he is going to be overvalued right now. But, if you find an owner who is weak in whip/era/k's, and has a decent pitcher (say Kershaw) and a decent bat (say Tulowitzki) and you can get both of those for Jiminez, you do it. If not, you sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[the moops]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

If you dont believe that he is going to have an ERA under 1 at the end of the year, then you agree with the premise that he's been "getting lucky".He doesnt strike enough guys out to sustain his ERA. Soon enough some of that "luck" is going to swap to the hitter's side and those balls in play will find some holes.

 

[dparker713]

Ubaldo's BABIP right now is .223. His FIP is 2.62 and his xFIP is 3.51. His LOB% is 94.2. His HR/FB is an amazing 1.6%.I copy and pasted that from Rotojunkie. They seem to believe those numbers indicate he's been extremely lucky this year. I don't know enough about these new-fangled stats. If you do, maybe that will help you make your decision.

For reference...BABIP is batting average on balls in play. Pitchers have minimal control over it and it tends to normalize around .300. So Ubaldo has been lucky there.

The league averages out to around .300, and as a short hand, any pitcher with BABIP significantly higher or lower than .300 may be getting lucky. However, pitchers do seem to have some control over the type of batted balls they allow (fly ball, ground ball, line drive, IFF) Each of those types of batted balls has its own league average BABIP. The key number to keep down is line drive rate which he has down all the way to 13.3%. And his ground ballo rate is up to a career high 54.9%, which is a good thing. His HR/FB rate is rather low, but he has historically been able to have a somewhat low HR/FB rate. The LOB% is likely unsustainable at that rate, but I don't think anyone is expecting and ERA sub 1 the rest of the way. But even with some regression, he could very well be the best pitcher in baseball for the remainder of the year. I just don't see how you're going to get value, everyone is going to be concerned with buying high and right now there is no more valuable player in the game.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I'm a believer in most of these new stats. I don't believe they're perfected but I generally use babip/xfip for just about everything. He's going to crash back to earth to some degree. I'd be willing to sell him...but I'd have to get back another ace PLUS something else. If someone didn't pay a high price I'd be happy to stand pat.

I do think many Lincecum owners would be willing to move him right now.

And to an earlier post - of course Ubaldo was throwing 6-7 mph faster than Lincecum. Tim has become more of a junkball pitcher the last few years.

 

[bweiser]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

Batting average for balls put into play is out of his control....except for the fact that hitters are getting lucky to put the ball in play against him. I've seen 5 or 6 starts for Jiminez this year, and in every one he has been awesome. He throws 97-98 in the first, 97-98 in the 8th. Against Lincecum, he was routinely 6-7 mph faster using the same gun. His control has been very good and he keeps the ball down.

Do I expect him to end the season with an ERA under 1? No. But, I don't see any reason why he doesn't continue to dominate all season long. Plus, the Rockies have a much better defensive team behind him than lets say the Giants.

Two things that could factor against Ubaldo:

-Pitch counts are running high. No idea why they're running him out there against the Nats in the 8th inning over 100 pitches so early in the season. I don't have his counts in front of me, nor do I feel like looking them up, but he's got to be up there in the majors right now, and I'd be slightly concerned about the way he is being handled.

-Coors in the summer isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

You also have to think of it like this. The Lincecum owner drafted him probably in the first round, or early second. I don't think he necessarily gives up on him, nor offer him AND a bat for another starter. Lincecum has won back to back Cy Youngs, so I'd certainly expect the owner to not want to go chasing right now.

If you can get a stud bat and a stud pitcher for him, then that's a trade you may want to pursue. Reasons no one has approached you with a trade is because everyone knows he is going to be overvalued right now. But, if you find an owner who is weak in whip/era/k's, and has a decent pitcher (say Kershaw) and a decent bat (say Tulowitzki) and you can get both of those for Jiminez, you do it. If not, you sit back and enjoy the ride.

guy loses all credibility by calling Tulo 'a decent bat.' lol.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Gave up 2 runs in 7 innings today en route to his 11th win. His ERA balloons to 0.93.

He'd actually pitched scoreless though 7 but came back out to start the 8th despite being on the wrong side of 100 pitches, and was gassed when he gave up a 2 run HR.

He's obviously going to settle back on that ERA, but I think you'll see numbers at least as good as second-half numbers last year (3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .209 OBA, .260 BAbip) when he emerged as one of the top pitchers in the game. If you can get a quality bat and one of the other guys (Lincecum, Halladay, Johnson, Wainwright, etc.) I'd do it.

 

[guru_007]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

Batting average for balls put into play is out of his control....except for the fact that hitters are getting lucky to put the ball in play against him. I've seen 5 or 6 starts for Jiminez this year, and in every one he has been awesome. He throws 97-98 in the first, 97-98 in the 8th. Against Lincecum, he was routinely 6-7 mph faster using the same gun. His control has been very good and he keeps the ball down.

Do I expect him to end the season with an ERA under 1? No. But, I don't see any reason why he doesn't continue to dominate all season long. Plus, the Rockies have a much better defensive team behind him than lets say the Giants.

Two things that could factor against Ubaldo:

-Pitch counts are running high. No idea why they're running him out there against the Nats in the 8th inning over 100 pitches so early in the season. I don't have his counts in front of me, nor do I feel like looking them up, but he's got to be up there in the majors right now, and I'd be slightly concerned about the way he is being handled.

-Coors in the summer isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

You also have to think of it like this. The Lincecum owner drafted him probably in the first round, or early second. I don't think he necessarily gives up on him, nor offer him AND a bat for another starter. Lincecum has won back to back Cy Youngs, so I'd certainly expect the owner to not want to go chasing right now.

If you can get a stud bat and a stud pitcher for him, then that's a trade you may want to pursue. Reasons no one has approached you with a trade is because everyone knows he is going to be overvalued right now. But, if you find an owner who is weak in whip/era/k's, and has a decent pitcher (say Kershaw) and a decent bat (say Tulowitzki) and you can get both of those for Jiminez, you do it. If not, you sit back and enjoy the ride.

guy loses all credibility by calling Tulo 'a decent bat.' lol.

sorry, was I giving him too much credit? Guy's career high average is 291, he has a mediocre obp about .350 for his career, never broke 100 rbi's, has broke 25 homers one time...he's a nice hitter, decent bat.

 

[MrPhoenix]

Gave up 2 runs in 7 innings today en route to his 11th win. His ERA balloons to 0.93.He'd actually pitched scoreless though 7 but came back out to start the 8th despite being on the wrong side of 100 pitches, and was gassed when he gave up a 2 run HR.

ABANDON SHIP!!!!

 

[dparker713]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

Batting average for balls put into play is out of his control....except for the fact that hitters are getting lucky to put the ball in play against him. I've seen 5 or 6 starts for Jiminez this year, and in every one he has been awesome. He throws 97-98 in the first, 97-98 in the 8th. Against Lincecum, he was routinely 6-7 mph faster using the same gun. His control has been very good and he keeps the ball down.

Do I expect him to end the season with an ERA under 1? No. But, I don't see any reason why he doesn't continue to dominate all season long. Plus, the Rockies have a much better defensive team behind him than lets say the Giants.

Two things that could factor against Ubaldo:

-Pitch counts are running high. No idea why they're running him out there against the Nats in the 8th inning over 100 pitches so early in the season. I don't have his counts in front of me, nor do I feel like looking them up, but he's got to be up there in the majors right now, and I'd be slightly concerned about the way he is being handled.

-Coors in the summer isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

You also have to think of it like this. The Lincecum owner drafted him probably in the first round, or early second. I don't think he necessarily gives up on him, nor offer him AND a bat for another starter. Lincecum has won back to back Cy Youngs, so I'd certainly expect the owner to not want to go chasing right now.

If you can get a stud bat and a stud pitcher for him, then that's a trade you may want to pursue. Reasons no one has approached you with a trade is because everyone knows he is going to be overvalued right now. But, if you find an owner who is weak in whip/era/k's, and has a decent pitcher (say Kershaw) and a decent bat (say Tulowitzki) and you can get both of those for Jiminez, you do it. If not, you sit back and enjoy the ride.

guy loses all credibility by calling Tulo 'a decent bat.' lol.

sorry, was I giving him too much credit? Guy's career high average is 291, he has a mediocre obp about .350 for his career, never broke 100 rbi's, has broke 25 homers one time...he's a nice hitter, decent bat.

Yeah, SS with those numbers grow on trees

 

[Dr. Awesome]

at Ubaldo's been getting really lucky this year.

Batting average for balls put into play is out of his control....except for the fact that hitters are getting lucky to put the ball in play against him. I've seen 5 or 6 starts for Jiminez this year, and in every one he has been awesome. He throws 97-98 in the first, 97-98 in the 8th. Against Lincecum, he was routinely 6-7 mph faster using the same gun. His control has been very good and he keeps the ball down.

Do I expect him to end the season with an ERA under 1? No. But, I don't see any reason why he doesn't continue to dominate all season long. Plus, the Rockies have a much better defensive team behind him than lets say the Giants.

Two things that could factor against Ubaldo:

-Pitch counts are running high. No idea why they're running him out there against the Nats in the 8th inning over 100 pitches so early in the season. I don't have his counts in front of me, nor do I feel like looking them up, but he's got to be up there in the majors right now, and I'd be slightly concerned about the way he is being handled.

-Coors in the summer isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

You also have to think of it like this. The Lincecum owner drafted him probably in the first round, or early second. I don't think he necessarily gives up on him, nor offer him AND a bat for another starter. Lincecum has won back to back Cy Youngs, so I'd certainly expect the owner to not want to go chasing right now.

If you can get a stud bat and a stud pitcher for him, then that's a trade you may want to pursue. Reasons no one has approached you with a trade is because everyone knows he is going to be overvalued right now. But, if you find an owner who is weak in whip/era/k's, and has a decent pitcher (say Kershaw) and a decent bat (say Tulowitzki) and you can get both of those for Jiminez, you do it. If not, you sit back and enjoy the ride.

guy loses all credibility by calling Tulo 'a decent bat.' lol.

sorry, was I giving him too much credit? Guy's career high average is 291, he has a mediocre obp about .350 for his career, never broke 100 rbi's, has broke 25 homers one time...he's a nice hitter, decent bat.

Hi guru, Welcome to the game of baseball. It's always nice to have a noob start following the sport. You may want to actually learn a bit before you start making any more statements like that. It makes you sound like LHUCKS.

 

[guru_007]

wow, didn't realize Tulowitzki's mom and sister posted here.

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Kershaw would be maybe a 5th-6th rounder, and Tulowitzki wouldn't be the first offensive player selected, he wouldn't be the first short stop selected. He is a good player, but it's not as if he is otherwordly. Sorry Ms. Tulowitzki, I said it.

 

[Darth Cheney]

wow, didn't realize Tulowitzki's mom and sister posted here.

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Kershaw would be maybe a 5th-6th rounder, and Tulowitzki wouldn't be the first offensive player selected, he wouldn't be the first short stop selected. He is a good player, but it's not as if he is otherwordly. Sorry Ms. Tulowitzki, I said it.

I think Tulo is the goods....but that is some funny ####.

 

[dparker713]

wow, didn't realize Tulowitzki's mom and sister posted here.Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.Kershaw would be maybe a 5th-6th rounder, and Tulowitzki wouldn't be the first offensive player selected, he wouldn't be the first short stop selected. He is a good player, but it's not as if he is otherwordly. Sorry Ms. Tulowitzki, I said it.

Tulowitzki is easily top 3 SS, and a case could be made for not only selecting him as the first SS, but in the first round as well.

 

[oso diablo]

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Ubaldo has been the top fantasy player, BY FAR, this season.

 

[bweiser]

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Ubaldo has been the top fantasy player, BY FAR, this season.

actually if we were doing a redraft going forward, and it was just for 2010, i'd probably lose out on ubaldo because he wouldn't be the first or second pitcher i'd take. i believe he will regress, even if it is slightly, to the mean. do you think he will win 11 more games and finish with 22? more, less? i think about 11 is right. i think there is better value than ubaldo in the first round of a redraft.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

wow, didn't realize Tulowitzki's mom and sister posted here.Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.Kershaw would be maybe a 5th-6th rounder, and Tulowitzki wouldn't be the first offensive player selected, he wouldn't be the first short stop selected. He is a good player, but it's not as if he is otherwordly. Sorry Ms. Tulowitzki, I said it.

I'm not sure if I should use the rolleyes smilie or the lmao one.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Ubaldo has been the top fantasy player, BY FAR, this season.

If you did a redraft you wouldn't get his points thus far...only those going forward.

 

[oso diablo]

Fact is, if we were doing a redraft for the second half of the year, Jiminez would be the 1st or 2nd pitcher selected, and more than likely a first rounder. Hell, as of today, I'd be willing to bet he is the most valuable fantasy baseball player.

Ubaldo has been the top fantasy player, BY FAR, this season.

If you did a redraft you wouldn't get his points thus far...only those going forward.

understand. was commenting on guru's "as of today" comment.not sure where i'd put him in a draft-now list. let's see...1. Halladay2/3. Wainwright or Cliff Lee4. Ubaldo or Lincecum

 

[Pat Patriot]

Made the following trade two weeks ago mostly because my team was mired near the bottom of a 14 team league and I was getting frustrated.

Team A gave up

Joe Mauer

Brandon Phillips

Matt Kemp

Ubaldo Jimenez

Team B gave up

Carl Crawford

Tim Lincecum

Victor Martinez

Johan Santana

Tough to tell who got the better of it so far.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Made the following trade two weeks ago mostly because my team was mired near the bottom of a 14 team league and I was getting frustrated.Team A gave upJoe MauerBrandon PhillipsMatt KempUbaldo JimenezTeam B gave upCarl CrawfordTim LincecumVictor MartinezJohan SantanaTough to tell who got the better of it so far.

Team A won that trade hands down...I guess a lot depends on what happens to Crawford the remainder of this year and into next year.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Made the following trade two weeks ago mostly because my team was mired near the bottom of a 14 team league and I was getting frustrated.Team A gave upJoe MauerBrandon PhillipsMatt KempUbaldo JimenezTeam B gave upCarl CrawfordTim LincecumVictor MartinezJohan SantanaTough to tell who got the better of it so far.

Depends who the replacement for Phillips is. He's a sure top 3 2nd baseman.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Made the following trade two weeks ago mostly because my team was mired near the bottom of a 14 team league and I was getting frustrated.Team A gave upJoe MauerBrandon PhillipsMatt KempUbaldo JimenezTeam B gave upCarl CrawfordTim LincecumVictor MartinezJohan SantanaTough to tell who got the better of it so far.

Depends who the replacement for Phillips is. He's a sure top 3 2nd baseman.

My bad, I meant Team B (the one getting Mauer, Phillips, Kemp and Jimenez) won it hands down....why? Crawford could be a mess depending on what happens to him; Lincecum and Jimenez are close to a push even though Lincecum has more hardware; Martinez very good but no longer great; and the same with Santana. Kemp is the only question mark on the other side and not much of one at that.

 

[Pat Patriot]

Made the following trade two weeks ago mostly because my team was mired near the bottom of a 14 team league and I was getting frustrated.Team A gave upJoe MauerBrandon PhillipsMatt KempUbaldo JimenezTeam B gave upCarl CrawfordTim LincecumVictor MartinezJohan SantanaTough to tell who got the better of it so far.

Depends who the replacement for Phillips is. He's a sure top 3 2nd baseman.

Ty Wigginton was the replacement for B. Phillips.Most in our league thought Team A got the better of it. It was a trade targeted at specific categories. Team A has gone from 13th to 6th in the 3 weeks since the deal and Team B has moved from 14th to 13th but it appears the players going to Team B have performed better. Crawford has been ok but his steals were sorely needed by Team A. Lincecum has been bad. Santana has been very good but without wins and Martinez has been EXCELLENT outperforming Mauer to this point.

 

[oso diablo]

i have been offered Ubaldo for Jose Reyes in a 12-team NL only 5x5. would only lose 1 point in SB, but goes against my instincts for this game to deal a stud batter for a pitcher. thoughts?

 

[RnR]

i have been offered Ubaldo for Jose Reyes in a 12-team NL only 5x5. would only lose 1 point in SB, but goes against my instincts for this game to deal a stud batter for a pitcher. thoughts?

Keep Reyes.