UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (7 Viewers)

[Tremendous Upside]

Local just posted linesiego -300Stevenson +240I will not be touching that one.Really liking Koschek at -550. Steep line, but Paulo Thiago has no business being in the ring with him IMO.Also leaning strongly on Marquardt -280 and Maia -280. Heavy, heavy chalk on this card, so if I don't sweep I'm probably not seeing much profit. We'll see how my opinions get swayed when the write-ups start to come out. Overall, a pretty uninspiring card IMO, so I'll hope to find this one online like I did for the last card that was in Europe.

It's televised free on Spike, but tape delayed later that evening (9 ET I think)

 

[modogg]

Local just posted linesiego -300Stevenson +240I will not be touching that one.Really liking Koschek at -550. Steep line, but Paulo Thiago has no business being in the ring with him IMO.Also leaning strongly on Marquardt -280 and Maia -280. Heavy, heavy chalk on this card, so if I don't sweep I'm probably not seeing much profit. We'll see how my opinions get swayed when the write-ups start to come out. Overall, a pretty uninspiring card IMO, so I'll hope to find this one online like I did for the last card that was in Europe.

It's televised free on Spike, but tape delayed later that evening (9 ET I think)

yup it is tape-delayed, but free. I'm glad the UFC doesn't try to sell these cards to hard. funny because some of these uninspiring cards really have good fights, but i don't think this will be one of them. Hardy-Markham may be the most exciting fight. and Sheer, i do agree with an earlier post being a little weary of Koscheck. that is a lot to put down on him. i certainly think he should win, but at that price i am not positive. i don't know if he ever fought overseas either, and who knows how that will effect him. Bigger concern for me is that he knows this is a give-me fight, and he may overlook Thiago. I mean he goes from fighting Thiago Alves and GSP, down to this? he should defaintely win, but i still think if there is a best bet favortite here i think it is Maia. i was never that impressed with Chael. I was able to catch his fights from when he was in the UFC before when he fought Jeremy Horn and Babalu. obviously that was some time ago, but Maia just seems like he can should be fine. it is funny because i was watching a show earlier this week regarding betting on this event with Steve Cofield and the guy who does the rawvegas website, and they both though Chael was good pick here with the odds. i myself just can't see it. I was impressed with how Jason McDonald was able to hang with Maia for a bit, but i don't think Chael will do even that good. i just think he is the safest bet. and as for another dog to possibly take, i may put a little on Evan Dunham. I have been reading up on him and he is looking good, coming out of Xtreme Couture. i am a Per Eklund fan, but he is more of a guy who puts on a good fight, than a dominating fight. probably with stick with a little on Stevenson and a good chunk on Maia.

 

[modogg]

so i do love hearing who the "experts" and other fighters pick to win, but take it all with a grain of salt. there are some that peak my attn. though, and one of them is when Randy Couture predicts fights. He is on quite a bit. He says he thinks Diego-Stevenson could be fight of the night (Diego was on MMALive, the ESPN feed, said he is around 163 or something, and is looking to make it at 156. either way, it sounded like the weight cut is not that easy. now Diego has meathead written all over him so i'm sure he'll make it and be ready to go), but said he thinks Stevenson will win. . Just thinking Diego is not the safest bet out there

 

[Clayton Gray]

I'd be very hesitant in betting Sanchez on his first cut to 155 as I believe he walks around in the 190 range. He could easily be sapped and gas early. If so, Stevenson could take him down with relative ease and lay-n-pray to victory in Rounds 2 and 3.

 

[modogg]

I'd be very hesitant in betting Sanchez on his first cut to 155 as I believe he walks around in the 190 range. He could easily be sapped and gas early. If so, Stevenson could take him down with relative ease and lay-n-pray to victory in Rounds 2 and 3.

this is what i'm banking on, though Stevenson hasn't been an example of good conditioning himself. I do know on MMA Live Diego mentioned he was 190-something 57 days ago (know idea why they used 57 days, but they did) and he was around 164-163 now.

 

[Deadpool]

stevenson should absolutely dominate this fight.....

i'm also looking at evan dunham in his fight to come out strong...lots of heart in this dude...

 

[thatguy]

I'd be very hesitant in betting Sanchez on his first cut to 155 as I believe he walks around in the 190 range. He could easily be sapped and gas early. If so, Stevenson could take him down with relative ease and lay-n-pray to victory in Rounds 2 and 3.

this is what i'm banking on, though Stevenson hasn't been an example of good conditioning himself. I do know on MMA Live Diego mentioned he was 190-something 57 days ago (know idea why they used 57 days, but they did) and he was around 164-163 now.

If he's really walking around, fully hydrated, at 164, the cut to 156 will be cake. Eight pounds of water is nothing for these guys, especially with a full 24 hours to rehydrate.I used to cut that much in high school wrestling and we weighed in an hour before the match.

 

[sheerterror]

Local just posted linesiego -300Stevenson +240I will not be touching that one.Really liking Koschek at -550. Steep line, but Paulo Thiago has no business being in the ring with him IMO.Also leaning strongly on Marquardt -280 and Maia -280. Heavy, heavy chalk on this card, so if I don't sweep I'm probably not seeing much profit. We'll see how my opinions get swayed when the write-ups start to come out. Overall, a pretty uninspiring card IMO, so I'll hope to find this one online like I did for the last card that was in Europe.

It's televised free on Spike, but tape delayed later that evening (9 ET I think)

yup it is tape-delayed, but free. I'm glad the UFC doesn't try to sell these cards to hard. funny because some of these uninspiring cards really have good fights, but i don't think this will be one of them. Hardy-Markham may be the most exciting fight. and Sheer, i do agree with an earlier post being a little weary of Koscheck. that is a lot to put down on him. i certainly think he should win, but at that price i am not positive. i don't know if he ever fought overseas either, and who knows how that will effect him. Bigger concern for me is that he knows this is a give-me fight, and he may overlook Thiago. I mean he goes from fighting Thiago Alves and GSP, down to this? he should defaintely win, but i still think if there is a best bet favortite here i think it is Maia. i was never that impressed with Chael. I was able to catch his fights from when he was in the UFC before when he fought Jeremy Horn and Babalu. obviously that was some time ago, but Maia just seems like he can should be fine. it is funny because i was watching a show earlier this week regarding betting on this event with Steve Cofield and the guy who does the rawvegas website, and they both though Chael was good pick here with the odds. i myself just can't see it. I was impressed with how Jason McDonald was able to hang with Maia for a bit, but i don't think Chael will do even that good. i just think he is the safest bet. and as for another dog to possibly take, i may put a little on Evan Dunham. I have been reading up on him and he is looking good, coming out of Xtreme Couture. i am a Per Eklund fan, but he is more of a guy who puts on a good fight, than a dominating fight. probably with stick with a little on Stevenson and a good chunk on Maia.

I agree that this does seem like a gimme fight for Koschek, but for a guy with title shot aspirations, I'd hope/assume he doesn't overlook it. The unknowns about Thiago are a bit scary to lay that kind of wood though, so I may just involve Kos in some parlays instead.I've been reading up more on these other matches and I really like Marquardt against Gouveia. I think Marquardt may be one of the most underrated fighters in the entire UFC, and there is value in this line. Realistically, the guy has only 1 true loss in the UFC and that is to Anderson Silva. He was destroying Thales Leites but got docked 2 points which cost him the split decision. I worry about Gouveia's knockout power, but I think Nate is tough/smart enough to avoid being in position to take that one monster shot to put him out. I think Marquardt outworks him most of this fight, scores the takedowns and can stop him in the 2nd. Likely going to be my biggest play of the night.Maia is still going to be a play for me, but probably for half of what Nate will be. I don't really like backing heavy chalk when I'm banking on a submission for victory (maybe I'm crazy, and I'm still relatively new to truly understanding the capping of MMA fights but I feel there is a lot of variance in submissions.) In most instances, I'd rather back the guy I'm confident can outscore his opponent and win by decision - if he's got great sub skills or knockout power, it's that much more of a plus - thus the reason why I love Lyoto Machida so much. This mentality can kind of be equated to never backing an underdog getting points unless you feel they can win outright. Everything I'm reading on this fight seems to be banking on Maia's world class BJJ being enough to still get that sub on Sonnen, but I still worry a bit that Sonnen's wrestling (coming from Team Quest) might be enough to control where the fight goes and lay and pray a victory. However, Sonnen's weak BJJ will likely be his downfall even if he gets top position. Despite playing the devil's advocate just there, I think it's still very, very likely we see Maia sub Sonnen so I'll back the heavy fav. here too, just haven't decided for how much yet.Another fight I'm trying to look deeper into is Markham vs. Hardy..I'd love your thoughts on that one Mo. Don't know much about either guy but I've read 3 writeups so far of cappers I trust and follow reguarly, and they all agree on Hardy, so that will likely be enough for me to put a small play on him. I love that he's got the Bisping/home crowd thing working to his advantage, which could be very important if this thing gets to a decision.

 

[modogg]

I agree that this does seem like a gimme fight for Koschek, but for a guy with title shot aspirations, I'd hope/assume he doesn't overlook it. The unknowns about Thiago are a bit scary to lay that kind of wood though, so I may just involve Kos in some parlays instead.I've been reading up more on these other matches and I really like Marquardt against Gouveia. I think Marquardt may be one of the most underrated fighters in the entire UFC, and there is value in this line. Realistically, the guy has only 1 true loss in the UFC and that is to Anderson Silva. He was destroying Thales Leites but got docked 2 points which cost him the split decision. I worry about Gouveia's knockout power, but I think Nate is tough/smart enough to avoid being in position to take that one monster shot to put him out. I think Marquardt outworks him most of this fight, scores the takedowns and can stop him in the 2nd. Likely going to be my biggest play of the night.Maia is still going to be a play for me, but probably for half of what Nate will be. I don't really like backing heavy chalk when I'm banking on a submission for victory (maybe I'm crazy, and I'm still relatively new to truly understanding the capping of MMA fights but I feel there is a lot of variance in submissions.) In most instances, I'd rather back the guy I'm confident can outscore his opponent and win by decision - if he's got great sub skills or knockout power, it's that much more of a plus - thus the reason why I love Lyoto Machida so much. This mentality can kind of be equated to never backing an underdog getting points unless you feel they can win outright. Everything I'm reading on this fight seems to be banking on Maia's world class BJJ being enough to still get that sub on Sonnen, but I still worry a bit that Sonnen's wrestling (coming from Team Quest) might be enough to control where the fight goes and lay and pray a victory. However, Sonnen's weak BJJ will likely be his downfall even if he gets top position. Despite playing the devil's advocate just there, I think it's still very, very likely we see Maia sub Sonnen so I'll back the heavy fav. here too, just haven't decided for how much yet.Another fight I'm trying to look deeper into is Markham vs. Hardy..I'd love your thoughts on that one Mo. Don't know much about either guy but I've read 3 writeups so far of cappers I trust and follow reguarly, and they all agree on Hardy, so that will likely be enough for me to put a small play on him. I love that he's got the Bisping/home crowd thing working to his advantage, which could be very important if this thing gets to a decision.

Well, i agree with you and your confidence on Marquardt. I think Greg Jackson and everyone else invovled in getting Marquardt ready will not let him come in unprepared, and he is better in almost all aspects than Wilson. Wilson has a puncher's chance, but i can't remember Marquardt really getting stunned from a big punch. I will be very surprised if Marquardt doesn't win, so i think it makes a lot of sense to take him heavy. Myself, i already went a little heavy on Maia so i think i am sticking with jsut taking that. my choice here might be more emotional just because i never liked Chael, but i will be surprised if either one of these guys loses as well. everything you mentioned above should be right, and i actually think Maia will keep it standing a bit. He has been training with Wanderlei for awhile now, and i know he has been working with Frank Mir and one of his asst. coaches on the Ultimate Fighter. With this, i think Maia has had some very good trainers to help him with his stand-up. Mir's stand-up was impressive against Nog, and i am hoping Maia has trained a bit of that as well. Same with some of Wanderlei's muay thai. Chael's stand-up reminds of Sean Sherk, and if Maia got technical with his stand-up he could win the fight based all on this. And if it goes to the ground his BJJ is more than enough. I am also hoping he has worked with Wanderlei for conditioning, and shoul be fresh all 3 rounds. and your theory about backing heavy favorites in interesting. I never really thought about that too much, but it makes sense. i will have to look at it some more across the baord and how it has worked in the past to see how strong of a factor it is. I know with some underdogs i love taking a guy who has a heavy hand, like that Edgar Garcia pick i had for the last WEC when he was -300. I knew he had a real heavy hand, and it was the reason he won. i haven't looked a ton into the Markham-Hardy fight. All i know is it will be a good one (well, should be). it might be the only fight with stand-up action we see on this card until the main event. this fight will likely be strength and brawling (Rory) vs. more technical stand-up (Hardy). it can be a pretty even fight, but i do think that the factor i mentioned a few times (the Americans coming over to England nad having to adjust to the time and eating and everything) is obviously an advantage for Hardy. I will look more into this fight tomorrow night to get a better idea, but i think this one can really go either way, but i would probably lean Hardy if i were forced to. if you want more action some of the undercard fights should have good choices.

 

[modogg]

i know this is coming late, but i rememberd last night this event is in England, so i got all possible bets in last night because i think it already started over there. i hope everyone did the same

 

[sheerterror]

i know this is coming late, but i rememberd last night this event is in England, so i got all possible bets in last night because i think it already started over there. i hope everyone did the same

Undercard going on now. I've got a .5u wager on Etim, waiting on Sherdog to update...Also, why the hell did my book take down the Hardy-Markham line? I wanted to get a wager in on Hardy and it's gone...

 

[sheerterror]

I have a parlay of:

Dos Santos

Koschek

Maia

Marquardt

Hardy

Paying about +500

Straight bets on:

Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.

Maia -260 (1u)

Marquardt -280 (2u)

Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

 

[zander_s]

I have a parlay ofos SantosKoschekMaiaMarquardtHardyPaying about +500Straight bets on:Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.Maia -260 (1u)Marquardt -280 (2u)Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

Its still on sportsbookETA - Hardy is still avail

 

[sheerterror]

I have a parlay ofos SantosKoschekMaiaMarquardtHardyPaying about +500Straight bets on:Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.Maia -260 (1u)Marquardt -280 (2u)Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

Its still on sportsbookETA - Hardy is still avail

Should have specified, the site my local uses took it down prematurely.

 

[zander_s]

I have a parlay ofos SantosKoschekMaiaMarquardtHardyPaying about +500Straight bets on:Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.Maia -260 (1u)Marquardt -280 (2u)Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

Its still on sportsbookETA - Hardy is still avail

Should have specified, the site my local uses took it down prematurely.

Ahhhhhhh

 

[modogg]

I have a parlay ofos SantosKoschekMaiaMarquardtHardyPaying about +500Straight bets on:Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.Maia -260 (1u)Marquardt -280 (2u)Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

man losing that parlay (i haven't seen all the fights, just saw Maia do his thing) because of the biggest favorite losing it sucks. Maia though, whew i may be tempted to put a little coin on him against Anderson if he is a big enough underdog.and i had a parlay too. I had a $20 parlay on:StevensonMaiaMarquardtCobb and Stefan it was a long shot, but only $20 and the payout was something like $6985.00 or something so it was worth a shot.

 

[modogg]

I have a parlay ofos SantosKoschekMaiaMarquardtHardyPaying about +500Straight bets on:Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.Maia -260 (1u)Marquardt -280 (2u)Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

and good call with Etim. I liked him and then i listened to the Sherdog radio preview show yesterday and every single one of those guysd picked Cobb to win. So i lost Stefan because a bunch of people felt he would win, and same with Cobb and the Sherdog guys. Back to not listening to any preview shows before the events.so speaking of these expert analysis, anybody have some that seem to be on a hot streak? my usual guys all are a bit cold, so i want to look around a little more. Like i think Sheer checks Performity's picks, how did he do? i need to shop a little more with these.

 

[Gadabout]

Helluva fight going on now...

 

[modogg]

Helluva fight going on now...

if you're talking about Stevenson-Sanchez yeah. But i think Joe needs a new camp, bad. Diego had a good gameplan, won the first 2 rounds, than jsut made sure he didn't get knocked out in the third and was fine. It seemed like Joe didn't have much of a gameplan, and he hung in there, but he certainly didn't do much to win the game. he had to think he lost the 1st round and should have came out with a better strategy in the second. i bet he drops to WEC and 145, so we'll see what he can do there, but he could have won this fight (and me some money) if he had a camp that gave him a good strategy

 

[sheerterror]

I have a parlay of:

Dos Santos

Koschek

Maia

Marquardt

Hardy

Paying about +500

Straight bets on:

Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.

Maia -260 (1u)

Marquardt -280 (2u)

Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

and good call with Etim. I liked him and then i listened to the Sherdog radio preview show yesterday and every single one of those guysd picked Cobb to win. So i lost Stefan because a bunch of people felt he would win, and same with Cobb and the Sherdog guys. Back to not listening to any preview shows before the events.so speaking of these expert analysis, anybody have some that seem to be on a hot streak? my usual guys all are a bit cold, so i want to look around a little more. Like i think Sheer checks Performity's picks, how did he do? i need to shop a little more with these.

Performify did real well tonight - went 4-0 on posted plays and made about 6 units or so. http://mmajunkie.com/news/14043/performify...s-stevenson.mmaI think he predicted every single fight correctly with the exception of Koschek, so he's been pretty on his game lately. I'll tend to read his write up, along with a few others that get posted at Two Plus Two. A few of the guys over at 2+2 are GREAT at handicapping MMA and you can make a lot of money tailing consensus picks over there. I try to "cap" the fights myself, then compare what they are all saying as well as what the writeups of a few of the guys have to say, and if it all jives, it's a play for me. I would have never played Etim or Hardy (had him in the parlay, couldn't get a straight bet on him - still pissed about that) if it wasn't for a bunch of people over there.

Glad I stayed off Sanchez. At those odds, it wouldn't have been worth the sweat. I think Stevenson is the right play with the odds that were laid out for that fight. Maia is a beast - he impressed me with his striking and I think he can be a real threat if he continues to improve that as well as his wrestling. Marquardt's an awesome fighter - I'd love to see him bang with Anderson again. I'd also love to see Diego fight Florian or BJ soon.

ETA: I also read this guy regularly: http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/02/ufc-95-...oesnt-suck.html

and http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/2/19/76504...potlight-ufc-95

 

[modogg]

I have a parlay of:

Dos Santos

Koschek

Maia

Marquardt

Hardy

Paying about +500

Straight bets on:

Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.

Maia -260 (1u)

Marquardt -280 (2u)

Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

and good call with Etim. I liked him and then i listened to the Sherdog radio preview show yesterday and every single one of those guysd picked Cobb to win. So i lost Stefan because a bunch of people felt he would win, and same with Cobb and the Sherdog guys. Back to not listening to any preview shows before the events.so speaking of these expert analysis, anybody have some that seem to be on a hot streak? my usual guys all are a bit cold, so i want to look around a little more. Like i think Sheer checks Performity's picks, how did he do? i need to shop a little more with these.

Performify did real well tonight - went 4-0 on posted plays and made about 6 units or so. http://mmajunkie.com/news/14043/performify...s-stevenson.mmaI think he predicted every single fight correctly with the exception of Koschek, so he's been pretty on his game lately. I'll tend to read his write up, along with a few others that get posted at Two Plus Two. A few of the guys over at 2+2 are GREAT at handicapping MMA and you can make a lot of money tailing consensus picks over there. I try to "cap" the fights myself, then compare what they are all saying as well as what the writeups of a few of the guys have to say, and if it all jives, it's a play for me. I would have never played Etim or Hardy (had him in the parlay, couldn't get a straight bet on him - still pissed about that) if it wasn't for a bunch of people over there.

Glad I stayed off Sanchez. At those odds, it wouldn't have been worth the sweat. I think Stevenson is the right play with the odds that were laid out for that fight. Maia is a beast - he impressed me with his striking and I think he can be a real threat if he continues to improve that as well as his wrestling. Marquardt's an awesome fighter - I'd love to see him bang with Anderson again. I'd also love to see Diego fight Florian or BJ soon.

ETA: I also read this guy regularly: http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/02/ufc-95-...oesnt-suck.html

and http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/2/19/76504...potlight-ufc-95

Nice. I check quite a few of those, and wish i would have had more faith in Performity. I used to read him awhile back, and i think i was reading him when he was in a mild slump and i stopped. I actually read his article the day before the fight, but didn't really respect it. I also know there is a section in the forums of mmajunkie regarding MMA wagering, i need to start getting on that too. a guy from mmajunkie is the one who recommended and really pushed me to take Edgar Garcia who was +300 at the last WEC event. Garcia won by 1st round knockout, which the guy called, so i need to do a little more conscious research with some of these. that is some good money to be made if you get the right tipsI made it a point to remember some of the guys i listened to this time around to start paying more attn. to that. I listen to the sherdog.com radio preview. Those guys usually know what they are talking about, and the whole reason i put 1.5 units on Cobb was because everyone on their panel (like 6 guys or so) picked Cobb to win. and the bloodyelbow guys convinced me that Struve had a chance. the other 2 i look through are a guy who writes for the MMA section on CBS, Sam Caplan and the guys on cagepotato.com. I just looked over the MMA section on CBS sportsline and one of the guys picked Thiago to upset Koscheck. very bold and his reasoning (Kos overlooking him, etc.) is on so i will need to look this over for the next event. there are a ton of sites i check and i need to pay more attn. to who is making the right picks.

All in all i lost about 1.5 units tonight, and i need to change my strategy with betting MMA. I used to look at match-ups myself, figured who i liked to win and if they were an underdog i would think about grabbing them. and i take the guys i think will definately win as favorites. I am about 5-0 with my picks on favorites lately (Maia, GSP, Babalu, and i have to look to see the other 2, maybe Jose Aldo), and these flyer picks i make on the underdogs are catching up to me. i have not caught too many, so i need to slow down with them.

Either way, good job Zander and Sheer, i believe you both hit all of your straight up picks. Hope anybody else that put money down did well. We'll have to have a meeting of the minds before the next events (a WEC event on 3/1, UFC 96 is 3/7 and the DREAM show comes up soon too) and we can all cash in from those.

 

[sheerterror]

I have a parlay of:

Dos Santos

Koschek

Maia

Marquardt

Hardy

Paying about +500

Straight bets on:

Etim -270 (.5u): Winner. It was an undercard fight so I don't think I'm spoiling much for anyone by saying that here.

Maia -260 (1u)

Marquardt -280 (2u)

Hoping to clean up today. Would have liked to have gotten a straight wager on Hardy but it's been off the board for a while now.

and good call with Etim. I liked him and then i listened to the Sherdog radio preview show yesterday and every single one of those guysd picked Cobb to win. So i lost Stefan because a bunch of people felt he would win, and same with Cobb and the Sherdog guys. Back to not listening to any preview shows before the events.so speaking of these expert analysis, anybody have some that seem to be on a hot streak? my usual guys all are a bit cold, so i want to look around a little more. Like i think Sheer checks Performity's picks, how did he do? i need to shop a little more with these.

Performify did real well tonight - went 4-0 on posted plays and made about 6 units or so. http://mmajunkie.com/news/14043/performify...s-stevenson.mmaI think he predicted every single fight correctly with the exception of Koschek, so he's been pretty on his game lately. I'll tend to read his write up, along with a few others that get posted at Two Plus Two. A few of the guys over at 2+2 are GREAT at handicapping MMA and you can make a lot of money tailing consensus picks over there. I try to "cap" the fights myself, then compare what they are all saying as well as what the writeups of a few of the guys have to say, and if it all jives, it's a play for me. I would have never played Etim or Hardy (had him in the parlay, couldn't get a straight bet on him - still pissed about that) if it wasn't for a bunch of people over there.

Glad I stayed off Sanchez. At those odds, it wouldn't have been worth the sweat. I think Stevenson is the right play with the odds that were laid out for that fight. Maia is a beast - he impressed me with his striking and I think he can be a real threat if he continues to improve that as well as his wrestling. Marquardt's an awesome fighter - I'd love to see him bang with Anderson again. I'd also love to see Diego fight Florian or BJ soon.

ETA: I also read this guy regularly: http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/02/ufc-95-...oesnt-suck.html

and http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/2/19/76504...potlight-ufc-95

Nice. I check quite a few of those, and wish i would have had more faith in Performity. I used to read him awhile back, and i think i was reading him when he was in a mild slump and i stopped. I actually read his article the day before the fight, but didn't really respect it. I also know there is a section in the forums of mmajunkie regarding MMA wagering, i need to start getting on that too. a guy from mmajunkie is the one who recommended and really pushed me to take Edgar Garcia who was +300 at the last WEC event. Garcia won by 1st round knockout, which the guy called, so i need to do a little more conscious research with some of these. that is some good money to be made if you get the right tipsI made it a point to remember some of the guys i listened to this time around to start paying more attn. to that. I listen to the sherdog.com radio preview. Those guys usually know what they are talking about, and the whole reason i put 1.5 units on Cobb was because everyone on their panel (like 6 guys or so) picked Cobb to win. and the bloodyelbow guys convinced me that Struve had a chance. the other 2 i look through are a guy who writes for the MMA section on CBS, Sam Caplan and the guys on cagepotato.com. I just looked over the MMA section on CBS sportsline and one of the guys picked Thiago to upset Koscheck. very bold and his reasoning (Kos overlooking him, etc.) is on so i will need to look this over for the next event. there are a ton of sites i check and i need to pay more attn. to who is making the right picks.

All in all i lost about 1.5 units tonight, and i need to change my strategy with betting MMA. I used to look at match-ups myself, figured who i liked to win and if they were an underdog i would think about grabbing them. and i take the guys i think will definately win as favorites. I am about 5-0 with my picks on favorites lately (Maia, GSP, Babalu, and i have to look to see the other 2, maybe Jose Aldo), and these flyer picks i make on the underdogs are catching up to me. i have not caught too many, so i need to slow down with them.

Either way, good job Zander and Sheer, i believe you both hit all of your straight up picks. Hope anybody else that put money down did well. We'll have to have a meeting of the minds before the next events (a WEC event on 3/1, UFC 96 is 3/7 and the DREAM show comes up soon too) and we can all cash in from those.

Well said. I don't know much about "the market" but from what I read on forums, a lot of these guys feel that MMA betting is very profitable/beatable because it isn't all that mainstream, so the oddsmakers have a tough time setting lines accurately (sounds a little like our props.) An example of this would be how undervalued guys like Machida, Marquardt and Maia were in their past fights. Granted, it's easy to say this in hindsight since they all won, but if you are paying attention - you'd know just how good all of these guys are and know that even at what seems like a steep price of -250 and up, these guys posed great value given who they were fighting and their own abilities. Another thing I'm starting to notice out of this, and maybe it's something I'm just kind of hypothesizing here, but I think that the true value can be found in the favorites in MMA lines, not the dogs. Because the public loves betting favorites so much in your typical pro sports, you usually find value with dogs thanks to inflated lines. I don't think this ends up being the case as much in MMA because the linesmakers often seem like they don't truly understand how good fighter A is, so they set a relatively high number (often high enough to scare off your typical public MMA bettor) and this will end up leaving value on the favorite. Again, the high chalk sucks, and you better make sure you sweep your plays or come close to it, or have good money distribution on your other fights if you want to show profit - but because the guys who are expected to win usually do, there's almost always value to be found.Regarding your strategy betting flyers/dogs, I would suggest decreasing your wager size. And of course, by dog I mean a true dog, not Hardy for example who closed at around +100, still essentially coinflip odds. I don't know how much you bet on Maia as your big bet of the day, but I hope it netted you at least double what you risked on Cobb or Struve for example...especially since both seemed more like tailing picks on your part, and you truly loved Maia's matchup. Maybe also try limiting yourself to one substantial upset/dog bet per card. More often than not, the heavy favorites win in MMA so taking odds on a big dog is great if you see an angle with it (i.e. Kim at the last card which was a great price and was 100% the right play - there, a large play was justified as we saw the matchup and the external circumstances surrounding Parisyan correctly, it was just the wrong result) but I think it's also important to limit just how many true "upsets" you are banking on.

I know how frustrating it can be LOVING a matchup, it going exactly as you planned and then at the end of the night, you are still down because you either missed on another big fav or just simply didn't play it for enough. I loved Machida on the last card, yet still ended up slightly down thanks to losses on Kim and Nate...kicked myself for not unloading but you live and you learn. I suck at it, but I think this is all a lessen in bankroll management/unit distribution...i.e determining what your strongest plays are and wagering accordingly so that if everything goes as planned, you still come out ahead even if some of the longshots didn't pan out the way you would have liked. We'll get em next time for sure.

What did all the guys on Cobb say regarding the fight against Etim? I'll admit I didn't know much about Cobb coming in, but I did know that he took the fight on about a week's notice and had to go to the UK for it where he was fighting a huge fan favorite (could have given Etim an edge if it went to a decision.) That was enough for me to make a play on it.

 

[modogg]

nice Sheer, thanks. i think your strategy recommendations layed out in the 2nd and 3rd paragraph make a lot of sense, and i will try those a little better going forward. I do know for the WEC card a bit back it worked in my favor. I took Garcia at +300 for about $60 and that ended up making up for another underdog i took and my Cerrone bet, so it works every so often. But you are right, i did like Maia a lot and didn't throw a ton on him. The winnings from there made up for what i had on Stevenson and then the Cobb and Struve added up as losses for me. Not crippling, but like you said, certainly frustrating. I liked Hardy and Marquardt a lot too, but i guess my idea was to hit those homerun hits and not the safest money. Either way, i am out of free money i had from doing so well in the NFL season so i need to bet smarter going forward. I'll certainly post thoughts on all bets before i make them for the next events and i agree it will come down to bankroll mgmt. and unit distribution (i know Performity wrote extensively on these 2. i get a magazine called Fight and he has had articles in it, and wrote extensively about bankroll mgmt and line shopping)

as for you 1st paragraph about the value being in the favorites i am not so sure. i started betting MMA off and on about 2 years ago. the first year i didn't pay much attn. to trends or anything, but the next year i did a little bit. that year (which was i guess 2007) was also the year of the upset, with the Cro Cop losses, and GSP losing to Serra and all of the other one's that happened. i think this is also the year teh guys from TUF came into their own and were winning against top guys. There haven't been too many crazy upsets (i forget the line on Forrest-Rampage, but i liked Forrest there. the biggest upset i can think of lately is Mir over Nog, but i am sure there are some others) so this hasn't happened like it did in 2007. i don't have enough data to really see how it has looked over the past 5-6 years, but i do know that 2 years ago there was huge value in MMA wagering because the lines makers were real off. i hit a couple of really good one's, on bets i thought were automatic and they were underdogs. i guess since that 2007 year there probably is a lot more action coming from the general public, so maybe you are right in the value really coming in the favorites now. All i know is with those 4 oz. gloves, it doesn't take much for an upset (i would bet Koscheck wins 9 out of 10 times against Thiago, it just seemed a few things were against him tonight) so some of the guys getting huge odds are worth a flyer if they have a hard punch. now it hasn't panned out for me, and i don't think i want to invest enough to experiment every time with this. i just know if i tried this in 2007 i would probably be profitng a lot more.

my strategy i think going forward will be more of based on each fighter. I think some guys are automatic, and Machida, Maia and GSP fit those very well. so no matter the odds they are a good bet, and the real value is with these guys. based on Anderson Silva's last fight, and the swirliing rumors about his disinterest in fighting anymore, i would be tempted to bet against him. Not with Thales Leites (i think Silva is a -450 favorite with that right now, and he may have good value with this), but with a guy like a Patrick Cote who is someone i could see Silva not thinking much of. other guys who may be over-hyped (and i am not saying Silva is, the guy is unstoppable, but he took Cote very lightly, and struggled against Travis Lutter's BJJ) are guys i would have to think about, but i think it is based on fight to fight.

As for Cobb, i think they were talking about a few past fights he has had and i guess he is a phenomenal wrestler. i think he had good training partners or people watching out for him, i really don't remember exactly why they all picked it but i ifgured the unanimous call should mean something. Either way, i think my lesson should be learned here to only bet on underdogs i am sure in and have a few reasons why they may win. like you mention, limit these underdogs to maybe one a show, cut my chances for losses instead of taking that shotgun approach hoping to catch an upset or 2 to break even. i guess these next shows will be about a week or 2 away. An interesting one coming up is Carwin vs. Gonzaga, the line has Gonzo as a little favorite, and i am not sure who to take there. i like Jardine as an underdog. i think Greg Jackson will have a good gameplan, the issue is whether Keith can carry it out and not get knocked out in the process. Jardine has a few weapons and i wonder if he will approach this fight like he did Liddell. Jardine's only 2 losses lately were to Wanderlei and Houston Alexander. he lost to Stefan Bonner awhile back but i think everybody felt he should have won. and i think Matt Hammill is -150 rigt now and the guy he is fighting, Mark Munoz is around +150. i don't know much about Munoz but may be good value there.

geez, sorry for writing a book here, but in love this talk and I agree with Sheer here there is money to be made. Obviously you guys (Sheer and Zander) did that for this event, and i would love for all of us to be able to do this going forward.

 

[modogg]

so here are the picks for the WEC event on Sunday coming up:

Mike Brown -140 OFF OFF

Leonard Garcia +110 OFF OFF

Bart Palaszewski -330 OFF OFF

Ricardo Lamas +260 OFF OFF

Jose Aldo -1300 OFF OFF

Chris Mickle +700 OFF OFF

Rob McCullough -145 OFF OFF

Marcus Hicks +115 OFF OFF

Danny Castillo -160 OFF OFF

Phil Cardella +130 OFF OFF

Marcos Galvao +115 OFF OFF

Demacio Page -145 OFF OFF

Johny Hendricks -500 OFF OFF

Alex Serdyukov +300 OFF OFF

Kenji Osawa -125 OFF OFF

Rafael Rebello -105 OFF OFF

Alex Karalexis -200 OFF OFF

Greg McIntyre +160 OFF OFF

Mike Budnik -115 OFF OFF

John Franchi -115 OFF OFF

Justin Haskins +175 OFF OFF

Mike Pierce -215

Nothing catches my eye. I liked Aldo a lot and would have taken him around 400 or 500 which is out of character for me, but at 1300 is insane. I got to look more into some of these guys. And i think i like Leonard Garcia for the main event, but i am hoping action will come in on Mike Brown and even that out a bit

 

[sheerterror]

Did a small action parlay of Brown, Karalexis and McCullough. May add a little to Karalexis and McCullough straight as well and a take a flyer on Serdyukov...basically tailing a few guys on another board for action's sake here.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Brown / Garcia should be a fun one tonight. I may start a thread.

 

[Abrantes]

Galvao looks like a nice bet at +115.

 

[modogg]

Did a small action parlay of Brown, Karalexis and McCullough. May add a little to Karalexis and McCullough straight as well and a take a flyer on Serdyukov...basically tailing a few guys on another board for action's sake here.

nice. i saw the guy's picks you referenced before and i think he did pretty good again. Me, not so much. I took Garcia and Palaszewski for the ML. The funny thing is i had 3 parlays out there, and i would have done very well, but i had Palaszewski in 2 of them and Garcia in the third. not a lot lost, but going 0-5 is not the way to do this. i need to check in before UFC 96 before i make any bets

 

[modogg]

so i'd love to hear people's thoughts on UFC 96 and some of the other fights coming up in the future. here are rough odds for UFC 96:

Quinton Jackson (-281) vs. Keith Jardine (+261)

Gabriel Gonzaga (-160) vs. Shane Carwin (+150)

Matt Hamill (-160) vs. Mark Munoz (+150)

Pete Sell (-131) vs. Matt Brown (+121)

Gray Maynard (-160) vs. Jim Miller (+155)

Tamdan McCrory (-290) vs. Ryan Madigan (+275)

Kendall Grove (-160) vs. Jason Day (+165)

Tim Boetsch (-130) vs. Jason Brilz (+130)

Brandon Vera (-500) vs. Mike Patt (+450)

Aaron Riley (-205) vs. Shane Nelson (+190)

i also noticed on sportsbook that there are a lot of other fights they have up. They have Hughes favored over Serra, and they have Brock Lesnar -165 over Mir. those are 2 lines i can see move a lot. a couple of others too i forgot about.

as for UFC 96, Jardine is awfully tempting, but i will wait a bit before i bite. I don't see a ton of action coming in on him so i am not too worried about getting killed on a line there. i hear people mentioning Carwin, but Gonzaga is not really a pushover. That is a fight i would not want to pick, could go either way in my opinion. I think Tim Boetsch is a solid favorite and so is Gray Maynard, and i think a preliminary bet for me would be:

parlay: Maynard, Boetsch and McGrory

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Love Carwin over Gonzaga for +150

Gonzaga is 2-2 in his last 4, and his last 2 wins were over a UFC newcomer and Justin McCully, who is just OK

Carwin is a great athlete (NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999 and two time runner up and also a two-time All-American in football) and has a couple of inches and 10 pounds on Gonzaga

He's also has a couple of UFC fights under his belt so he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the moment

Gonzaga is a step up competition wise for Carwin but at +150 I will likely put some $$ on him

 

[Abrantes]

I agree with most of the UFC 96 assessments, although picking a winner for Carwin/Gonzaga is tough. Napão's simply a much more proven commodity - I know what I'm getting with him. Seeing Carwin beat people in under a minute is fun, but it does little in terms of answering my questions about his game. I have no clue what his cardio's like, or what kind of ground game he possesses. Not sure how he deals with leg kicks and I really have no idea if being under the spotlight of the co-main event will affect him, given it's his first time on the main card, even. Will he hold up mentally if he finds himself in a bad spot, or if he's forced to go to the third round?

Carwin's a beast, and I actually think he's a smart bet for the fight due to sheer brute strength, but as far as winning straight up, Napão's a huge step up in competition. As far as I can see it, Napão is more well-rounded, and I'm taking him in the second round.

 

[zander_s]

I'm in on Carwin @ +140

All points made about not really knowing his game past 1st round are warranted, but the guy is a winner! 10-0 MMA and 2-0 UFC!

If you aint losing your a winner!!

 

[SKribbles]

I'll be putting a little on Jardin. I think that number is way to high for someone with his KO power.

 

[modogg]

I'll be putting a little on Jardin. I think that number is way to high for someone with his KO power.

i agree, Jardin is very very temtping with that number. I think his leg kicks, and kicks overall are always under-rated and i think he will utilize them in this fight. i think he will gameplan real well, and i hear his BJJ is really, really good, he just never uses it. Rampage looked really ready for Wanderlei, and if he brings his A game he should be able to beat almost everybody, But if Jardin can make it past 2 minutes without getting knocked out i think he can win the fight. and Carwin-Gonzo is too tight for me too. I agree with Abrantes that it is a huge step-up in competition. And Gonzo is 2-2, but he lost to Randy because (my opinion here) he was intimidated by the fact he was fighting Randy, and i have no idea what happened when he fought Werdum. I just don't know if Carwin has seen BJJ like what he will see against Gonzaga. Gonzo has a pretty good chin so i don't think Carwin knocks him out right away. Either way this will be a fun fight to watch

 

[Clayton Gray]

I agree with most of the UFC 96 assessments, although picking a winner for Carwin/Gonzaga is tough. Napão's simply a much more proven commodity - I know what I'm getting with him. Seeing Carwin beat people in under a minute is fun, but it does little in terms of answering my questions about his game. I have no clue what his cardio's like, or what kind of ground game he possesses. Not sure how he deals with leg kicks and I really have no idea if being under the spotlight of the co-main event will affect him, given it's his first time on the main card, even. Will he hold up mentally if he finds himself in a bad spot, or if he's forced to go to the third round?Carwin's a beast, and I actually think he's a smart bet for the fight due to sheer brute strength, but as far as winning straight up, Napão's a huge step up in competition. As far as I can see it, Napão is more well-rounded, and I'm taking him in the second round.

I agree with this.

 

[sheerterror]

Don't know how much action I'm going to end up having on this card.

I know for sure I'm playing Carwin at +160 for probably .5u.

Considering laying the juice with Rampage - he's not worth -300 but I just simply think he beats Jardine regardless.

Leaning Pete Sell -150 as well. Not a ton I like. May do a parlay of Rampage and Brandon Vera.

Gonna add in a .25u homerun parlay that pays +3300:

Rampage, Carwin, Hamill, Sell, Vera and Madigan

 

[sheerterror]

Mir-Lesnar canceled:

http://mmamania.com/2009/03/06/frank-mir-i...t-brock-lesnar/

 

[modogg]

Mir-Lesnar canceled:

http://mmamania.com/2009/03/06/frank-mir-i...t-brock-lesnar/

yeah, i just read it on another site. Shame because i liked the money i already had put on Lesnar. I can't see them taking Lensar off the card, wonder who they'll have him fighton a side note, in a press conference the other day Dana White said they would definately have a show in Philly by the end of the year . I am guessing this will have to be Sep or Oct, but i wonder if we may get Brock-Mir around then?

by the way Sheer i saw Performity's picks for this event (http://mmajunkie.com/news/14188/performifys-picks-for-ufc-96-jackson-vs-jardine.mma). interesting that he is going to take a chance on those 2 big underdogs against Tamdan and Verra. if basketball goes well tonight i may go .4 unit on each as well. i think no matter what i am going light this event, which is more of what i should have been doing for the last 2 events anyway

 

[modogg]

Mir-Lesnar canceled:

http://mmamania.com/2009/03/06/frank-mir-i...t-brock-lesnar/

i just saw this, http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/3/6/784463...says-mir-vs-lesit just is funny how MMA information and news is still not mainstream and you get reports that go back and forth. i like the way it is with the competing websites trying to get stuff out there fast because it makes it more interesting, but i hate when they get carried away (i.e. see Kim vs. Karo. yes my fault for betting like Karo all of a sudden became a parapalegic, but some of the sites were pretty convincing).

 

[sheerterror]

Mir-Lesnar canceled:

http://mmamania.com/2009/03/06/frank-mir-i...t-brock-lesnar/

i just saw this, http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/3/6/784463...says-mir-vs-lesit just is funny how MMA information and news is still not mainstream and you get reports that go back and forth. i like the way it is with the competing websites trying to get stuff out there fast because it makes it more interesting, but i hate when they get carried away (i.e. see Kim vs. Karo. yes my fault for betting like Karo all of a sudden became a parapalegic, but some of the sites were pretty convincing).

Don't beat yourself up over Karo, I still maintain that Kim was the right plan, especially at those odds. What's MP always say: "right play, wrong result"?I think this will cause a skyrocket in the line on Brock. Once people hear Mir may or may not have injured his knee, they'll jump on Brock thinking he now has an added advantage. Make we want to tie some up early.

 

[modogg]

Don't beat yourself up over Karo, I still maintain that Kim was the right plan, especially at those odds. What's MP always say: "right play, wrong result"?

I think this will cause a skyrocket in the line on Brock. Once people hear Mir may or may not have injured his knee, they'll jump on Brock thinking he now has an added advantage. Make we want to tie some up early.

I see sportsbook already took the bet off (but they put up GSP -270 and i expect that number to go up much higher). but this really reminds of something Mir talked about after his fight with Nog. I can't remember too much before their fight about rumors, but i remember in a post-fight interview Mir talked about having people post misleading info about him on the internet and that he liked to play psychological games like this with his opponents. Makes you wonder if he really has an injury and what he is doing with it. any advantage helps, and i am sure Mir knows that

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I agree with most of the UFC 96 assessments, although picking a winner for Carwin/Gonzaga is tough. Napão's simply a much more proven commodity - I know what I'm getting with him. Seeing Carwin beat people in under a minute is fun, but it does little in terms of answering my questions about his game. I have no clue what his cardio's like, or what kind of ground game he possesses. Not sure how he deals with leg kicks and I really have no idea if being under the spotlight of the co-main event will affect him, given it's his first time on the main card, even. Will he hold up mentally if he finds himself in a bad spot, or if he's forced to go to the third round?Carwin's a beast, and I actually think he's a smart bet for the fight due to sheer brute strength, but as far as winning straight up, Napão's a huge step up in competition. As far as I can see it, Napão is more well-rounded, and I'm taking him in the second round.

Carwin has a punchers chance, but if Gonzaga avoids a major shot from Carwin's less than technical striking, then I'd expect Carwin's submission defense to really deteriorate as his cardio gets tested and expect a guy with world class jiu-jitsu like Napao to catch him. Gonzaga by 1st round submission.

 

[SKribbles]

Sportsbook better come back online soon...

 

[zander_s]

Sportsbook better come back online soon...

I'm having no issues!

 

[zander_s]

For the record, i'm on the following for tonight.

Jardine +260

Grove -200

Hamill - 170

Carwin +140

Good luck all!

 

[SKribbles]

Sportsbook better come back online soon...

I'm having no issues!

Anyone have a good proxy I can try?

 

[zander_s]

Sportsbook better come back online soon...

I'm having no issues!

Anyone have a good proxy I can try?

Now i can't access!

 

[sheerterror]

Ok, just spent much of the afternoon shoring up my card here. Not extremely confident in any of these matchups, which is why I'm not laying anything to win more than 1u.

Rampage -300 to win 1u: This number SUCKS. No disputing that, but in the end I don't think it prevents Rampage from winning this fight. In the past, I've laid off of a few main events where I didn't see a clear advantage and wanted to just enjoy the fight - this time around, I'm going to roll with what I feel is the safest bet on the card. Rampage looked completely refocused and rejuvenated in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, and I think he knows he's got a great chance at getting his title back with a win tonight. Jardine is obviously no slouch, he's among the best in the very deep LHW division, but I just don't believe he matches up well with Rampage here. He's certainly got knockout power, but he's going to have to significantly outbox Rampage or catch him if he hopes to finish the fight. I just don't see it happening, and I'll lay the wood here.

Carwin +160 .5u: Love this price in what I think is somewhat close to a 50/50 proposition. Gonzaga is a tremendous step up in competition for the undefeated Carwin, but I think he answers the bell here and takes the next step into becoming one of the premier HWs in a pretty shallow division. The guy from mmajunkie made the great comparison to Carwin having the size/wrestling advantage over a strong BJJ guy draws parallels to the St. Pierre/Penn fight. Both Carwin and St. Pierre fight in the Greg Jackson camp so it wouldn't be surprising to see Carwin come out with a similar gameplan that St. Pierre employed in his demolition of Penn a few weeks back. Both fighters' gas is questionable, so this one could get very interesting/sloppy if it makes it past the first round, and I'm going to take the dog in this one.

Hamill -180 .5u: Munoz's apparent wrestling advantage is really the only thing scaring me off of this being a bigger play. Hamill is strong and more experienced - if he keeps this fight standing (i.e doesn't allow Munoz's wrestling to completely control where the fight goes) he'll win.

Ryan Madigan +240 .25u: Know nothing about him, just tailing someone I trust.

Parlay .25u to win 12u: Rampage, Hamill, Sell, Madigan, Carwin, Vera

Good luck tonight everyone

 

[modogg]

Ok, just spent much of the afternoon shoring up my card here. Not extremely confident in any of these matchups, which is why I'm not laying anything to win more than 1u.Rampage -300 to win 1u: This number SUCKS. No disputing that, but in the end I don't think it prevents Rampage from winning this fight. In the past, I've laid off of a few main events where I didn't see a clear advantage and wanted to just enjoy the fight - this time around, I'm going to roll with what I feel is the safest bet on the card. Rampage looked completely refocused and rejuvenated in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, and I think he knows he's got a great chance at getting his title back with a win tonight. Jardine is obviously no slouch, he's among the best in the very deep LHW division, but I just don't believe he matches up well with Rampage here. He's certainly got knockout power, but he's going to have to significantly outbox Rampage or catch him if he hopes to finish the fight. I just don't see it happening, and I'll lay the wood here.Carwin +160 .5u: Love this price in what I think is somewhat close to a 50/50 proposition. Gonzaga is a tremendous step up in competition for the undefeated Carwin, but I think he answers the bell here and takes the next step into becoming one of the premier HWs in a pretty shallow division. The guy from mmajunkie made the great comparison to Carwin having the size/wrestling advantage over a strong BJJ guy draws parallels to the St. Pierre/Penn fight. Both Carwin and St. Pierre fight in the Greg Jackson camp so it wouldn't be surprising to see Carwin come out with a similar gameplan that St. Pierre employed in his demolition of Penn a few weeks back. Both fighters' gas is questionable, so this one could get very interesting/sloppy if it makes it past the first round, and I'm going to take the dog in this one.Hamill -180 .5u: Munoz's apparent wrestling advantage is really the only thing scaring me off of this being a bigger play. Hamill is strong and more experienced - if he keeps this fight standing (i.e doesn't allow Munoz's wrestling to completely control where the fight goes) he'll win.Ryan Madigan +240 .25u: Know nothing about him, just tailing someone I trust.Parlay .25u to win 12u: Rampage, Hamill, Sell, Madigan, Carwin, Vera Good luck tonight everyone

so i caved and got this PPV. still sick, and sitting watching a PPV is always a good time. trying to figure out what i bet:1. Jardine .65 unit to win. i think if Jardine gets past the first 3 minutes the fight is 50/50 on who will win. it is funny because people talk like he has a glass chin. yes he has gotten knocked out very fast and very definatively, but he took a lot of punches against Chuck and has taken quite a few hits. i think his glass chin is misleading, more like if he gets out of his gameplan in the first 30 seconds of the fight it all caves in on him. who knows2. .4 unit on Madigan: same as Sheer above. don't know a ton about him, but he has knockout power. i am a barncat fan, but his odds were worth a risk3. the rest were parlays. I can't remember them, and i went to check them online but don't want to see any results. i know i liked Maynard and Boetsch to both win and they were in 2 $20 parlays i had. i had one parlay with Day in it, one with Gonzaga and Sell, and i forget the 3rd. - either way, this PPV will be less costly if i lose all picks. I didn't get too overboard with underdogs like i have before, and used them up in parlay bets. i also don't think there was any definitive favorite that i felt that stcuk out like Maia and GSP have for me in the past. less action than usual which is good. let's see how these fights pan out

 

[snorlax]

All of the fights were interesting until Jackson-Jardine. I wish Jardine would've won so we could watch Machida fight for the title instead of Jackson versus Evans.