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Former scout Dave Razzano mentions in Cecil's interview, what a QB does under pressure is a big factor to their success. Three articles related to this:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/
Beating the Blitz
May 12th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
You want to be a quarterback in the NFL? Well you know you need to be gifted physically. You need to have the arm to zip the ball into tight spots, the accuracy to hit your man, and the mobility to avoid defenders that are crashing in around you.
You also need to be smart. You need to recognize defenses and see what is coming. You need to process information quickly and make the right decision.
Nowhere is that ability (or lack thereof) more apparent than in the face of a blitz. It doesn’t matter whether the defense is bringing everyone or dropping an end into coverage and overloading on the other side. You need to pick it up and get that ball somewhere.
It’s what can separate a good quarterback from a truly great one and that begs the question: who are the best in the business when it comes to dealing with the blitz?
Well, fortunately, Pro Football Focus tracks every blitz and every result of every blitz and we’re going share with you what the numbers say. It only took a spreadsheet with over two hundred columns to process it all.
The qualifying minimum to be part of this study was being blitzed at least 100 times.
Bullseyes On Their Backs
I guess if you’re going to break down how quarterbacks deal with the blitz, it would be nice to look at which quarterbacks get blitzed most often. Something of particular interest to Raider fans, who will see two of their players in the top six.
Having the house thrown at him more than any other was Bruce Gradkowski. The former Buc and Brown felt the blitz on 57.8% of all of his drop backs for Oakland in 2010 with the next in line, Joe Flacco, finishing a figurative mile behind, seeing blitzes on 49.51% of his drops from center. Just outside of the Top 5 was the aforementioned other Raider, Jason Campbell. Elite quarterbacks Matt Ryan (44% of plays) and Ben Roethlisberger (41.21%) both saw a lot of men coming their way as teams tried to slow them down.
In less of a surprise, rookies Colt McCoy (45.59%), Sam Bradford (42.03%), and Jimmy Clausen (41.28%) all faced their share of blitzes, while defenses smelt blood with Ryan Fitzpatrick (45.95%) and those multiple receiver sets the Bills liked to use.
Here’s a complete list of how much each quarterback was blitzed.
Percentage of Pass Play BlitzedRank (DropBack) (DropBack Blitzed) (Blitzed %)1 Bruce GradkowskiOAK 173 100 57.80%2 Joe Flacco BLT 618 306 49.51%3 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 494 227 45.95%4 Colt McCoy CLV 261 119 45.59%5 Matt Ryan ATL 650 286 44.00%6 Jason Campbell OAK 388 168 43.30%7 Sam Bradford SL 640 269 42.03%8 Josh Freeman TB 544 225 41.36%9 Jimmy Clausen CAR 344 142 41.28%10 Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 546 225 41.21%11 Alex D. Smith SF 375 153 40.80%12 Brett Favre MIN 383 154 40.21%13 Matt Schaub HST 611 244 39.93%14 Mark Sanchez NYJ 640 251 39.22%15 Carson Palmer CIN 620 243 39.19%16 Derek Anderson ARZ 355 139 39.15%17 Jay Cutler CHI 565 219 38.76%18 Aaron Rodgers GB 695 266 38.27%19 Donovan McNabb WAS 525 199 37.90%20 Drew Brees NO 747 282 37.75%21 Kyle Orton DEN 545 205 37.61%22 Peyton Manning IND 724 271 37.43%23 Eli Manning NYG 565 210 37.17%24 Chad Henne MIA 540 199 36.85%25 Michael Vick PHI 510 186 36.47%26 Philip Rivers SD 591 209 35.36%27 Tom Brady NE 572 200 34.97%28 Matt Cassel KC 519 176 33.91%29 David Garrard JAX 421 141 33.49%30 Jon Kitna DAL 357 119 33.33%31 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 566 181 31.98%32 Shaun Hill DET 448 136 30.36%Down near the bottom, teams shied away from attacking the aging trio of Shaun Hill (30.36%), Matt Hasselbeck (31.98%), and Jon Kitna (33.33%). Meanwhile, it would appear teams were scared of sending more men after Tom Brady, for fear of leaving his receivers even more room to roam.
One figure that did catch my attention was how low Michael Vick was on the list. Understandably, teams have to account for Vick’s mobility, but the Vikings showed how susceptible he could be to pressure off the edge as Antoine Winfield got the zone blitz working. Furthermore, Vick wasn’t exactly seeing the whole field, with just 15.55% of his throws going to the right side.
Philadelphia can expect more of this. If you want to know why, you need only look at Vick’s completion percentage when blitzed as it dropped to 52.98%.
Accuracy Impacted
At the top of this next list – completion percentage when blitzed – it’s no real surprise that Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers are securely among the best, but there may be a small shock in store for some with Chad Henne ranking so highly. When you consider Miami’s preference for keeping extra guys in to protect, some explanation is offered. With 5.84 men kept in on average, Miami’s number was third highest in the league. Comparatively, teams like New Orleans and San Diego keep in a relatively low 5.51 men per pass play.
Completion Percentage When BlitzedRank Blitzed Attempts Completions Completion%1 Drew Brees NO 282 267 176 65.92%2 Chad Henne MIA 199 179 114 63.69%3 Aaron Rodgers GB 266 245 154 62.86%4 Philip Rivers SD 209 190 118 62.11%5 Matt Schaub HST 244 226 140 61.95%6 Matt Ryan ATL 286 268 165 61.57%7 Jon Kitna DAL 119 104 64 61.54%8 Eli Manning NYG 210 198 121 61.11%9 Carson Palmer CIN 243 223 136 60.99%10 Peyton Manning IND 271 261 159 60.92%11 Josh Freeman TB 225 200 121 60.50%12 Shaun Hill DET 136 124 75 60.48%13 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 181 166 100 60.24%14 Joe Flacco BLT 306 276 162 58.70%15 Matt Cassel KC 176 158 92 58.23%16 Jay Cutler CHI 219 188 108 57.45%17 Tom Brady NE 200 190 109 57.37%18 Alex D. Smith SF 153 137 78 56.93%19 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 227 203 115 56.65%20 Sam Bradford SL 269 246 139 56.50%21 David Garrard JAX 141 119 67 56.30%22 Jason Campbell OAK 168 139 78 56.12%23 Colt McCoy CLV 119 100 56 56.00%24 Brett Favre MIN 154 148 82 55.41%25 Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 225 194 106 54.64%26 Michael Vick PHI 186 151 80 52.98%27 Donovan McNabb WAS 199 182 96 52.75%28 Mark Sanchez NYJ 251 231 120 51.95%29 Kyle Orton DEN 205 191 93 48.69%30 Bruce GradkowskiOAK 100 88 41 46.59%31 Jimmy Clausen CAR 142 116 51 43.97%32 Derek Anderson ARZ 139 127 52 40.94%Down where you don’t want to be, you get a little bit of numbers to back up what we already know when it comes to Derek Anderson. After our deep ball article looked favorably at his accuracy going downfield, you see the true problem with him. He gets flustered in stressful situations. While others excel against the blitz, he’s completing just 40.94% of his passes. When you’re ranked lower than Jimmy Clausen you got some explaining to do.
Points Not Picks
So we’ve looked at accuracy, but what about the plays that show up on highlight reels? Which players are using the blitz to put up points, and which ones are feeling the heat and turning it over? In a shocking result, Peyton Manning is at the top.
Turning the sarcasm off for a second, it is a surprise to have him joined by Mark Sanchez. For all his faults (and he has a few), Sanchez tends to work best when teams give him more of the field to exploit, handling the teams that go after him.
[/size] Again it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Derek Anderson, and it gives some numbers to the widely held feeling that Brett Favre should never have come back. A more surprising figure sees Drew Brees towards the bottom at 23rd. Given how many times he threw the ball when blitzed you can understand the six interceptions to a degree, but it’s slightly stunning there weren’t more touchdowns. GradingLastly, as everyone knows, we grade plays on a certain scale. Some of that was explained briefly in this article. I reviewed our grades specifically for blitz situations. Things that won’t astound are how well our the top three in this list did, but Eli Manning probably doesn’t spring to mind as a guy expected to rank well. The same goes for Carson Palmer, who may not be coming off his best year, but there’s something left in the tank if the Bengals are prepared to let him go.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/
Beating the Blitz
May 12th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
You want to be a quarterback in the NFL? Well you know you need to be gifted physically. You need to have the arm to zip the ball into tight spots, the accuracy to hit your man, and the mobility to avoid defenders that are crashing in around you.
You also need to be smart. You need to recognize defenses and see what is coming. You need to process information quickly and make the right decision.
Nowhere is that ability (or lack thereof) more apparent than in the face of a blitz. It doesn’t matter whether the defense is bringing everyone or dropping an end into coverage and overloading on the other side. You need to pick it up and get that ball somewhere.
It’s what can separate a good quarterback from a truly great one and that begs the question: who are the best in the business when it comes to dealing with the blitz?
Well, fortunately, Pro Football Focus tracks every blitz and every result of every blitz and we’re going share with you what the numbers say. It only took a spreadsheet with over two hundred columns to process it all.
The qualifying minimum to be part of this study was being blitzed at least 100 times.
Bullseyes On Their Backs
I guess if you’re going to break down how quarterbacks deal with the blitz, it would be nice to look at which quarterbacks get blitzed most often. Something of particular interest to Raider fans, who will see two of their players in the top six.
Having the house thrown at him more than any other was Bruce Gradkowski. The former Buc and Brown felt the blitz on 57.8% of all of his drop backs for Oakland in 2010 with the next in line, Joe Flacco, finishing a figurative mile behind, seeing blitzes on 49.51% of his drops from center. Just outside of the Top 5 was the aforementioned other Raider, Jason Campbell. Elite quarterbacks Matt Ryan (44% of plays) and Ben Roethlisberger (41.21%) both saw a lot of men coming their way as teams tried to slow them down.
In less of a surprise, rookies Colt McCoy (45.59%), Sam Bradford (42.03%), and Jimmy Clausen (41.28%) all faced their share of blitzes, while defenses smelt blood with Ryan Fitzpatrick (45.95%) and those multiple receiver sets the Bills liked to use.
Here’s a complete list of how much each quarterback was blitzed.
Percentage of Pass Play BlitzedRank (DropBack) (DropBack Blitzed) (Blitzed %)1 Bruce GradkowskiOAK 173 100 57.80%2 Joe Flacco BLT 618 306 49.51%3 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 494 227 45.95%4 Colt McCoy CLV 261 119 45.59%5 Matt Ryan ATL 650 286 44.00%6 Jason Campbell OAK 388 168 43.30%7 Sam Bradford SL 640 269 42.03%8 Josh Freeman TB 544 225 41.36%9 Jimmy Clausen CAR 344 142 41.28%10 Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 546 225 41.21%11 Alex D. Smith SF 375 153 40.80%12 Brett Favre MIN 383 154 40.21%13 Matt Schaub HST 611 244 39.93%14 Mark Sanchez NYJ 640 251 39.22%15 Carson Palmer CIN 620 243 39.19%16 Derek Anderson ARZ 355 139 39.15%17 Jay Cutler CHI 565 219 38.76%18 Aaron Rodgers GB 695 266 38.27%19 Donovan McNabb WAS 525 199 37.90%20 Drew Brees NO 747 282 37.75%21 Kyle Orton DEN 545 205 37.61%22 Peyton Manning IND 724 271 37.43%23 Eli Manning NYG 565 210 37.17%24 Chad Henne MIA 540 199 36.85%25 Michael Vick PHI 510 186 36.47%26 Philip Rivers SD 591 209 35.36%27 Tom Brady NE 572 200 34.97%28 Matt Cassel KC 519 176 33.91%29 David Garrard JAX 421 141 33.49%30 Jon Kitna DAL 357 119 33.33%31 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 566 181 31.98%32 Shaun Hill DET 448 136 30.36%Down near the bottom, teams shied away from attacking the aging trio of Shaun Hill (30.36%), Matt Hasselbeck (31.98%), and Jon Kitna (33.33%). Meanwhile, it would appear teams were scared of sending more men after Tom Brady, for fear of leaving his receivers even more room to roam.
One figure that did catch my attention was how low Michael Vick was on the list. Understandably, teams have to account for Vick’s mobility, but the Vikings showed how susceptible he could be to pressure off the edge as Antoine Winfield got the zone blitz working. Furthermore, Vick wasn’t exactly seeing the whole field, with just 15.55% of his throws going to the right side.
Philadelphia can expect more of this. If you want to know why, you need only look at Vick’s completion percentage when blitzed as it dropped to 52.98%.
Accuracy Impacted
At the top of this next list – completion percentage when blitzed – it’s no real surprise that Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers are securely among the best, but there may be a small shock in store for some with Chad Henne ranking so highly. When you consider Miami’s preference for keeping extra guys in to protect, some explanation is offered. With 5.84 men kept in on average, Miami’s number was third highest in the league. Comparatively, teams like New Orleans and San Diego keep in a relatively low 5.51 men per pass play.
Completion Percentage When BlitzedRank Blitzed Attempts Completions Completion%1 Drew Brees NO 282 267 176 65.92%2 Chad Henne MIA 199 179 114 63.69%3 Aaron Rodgers GB 266 245 154 62.86%4 Philip Rivers SD 209 190 118 62.11%5 Matt Schaub HST 244 226 140 61.95%6 Matt Ryan ATL 286 268 165 61.57%7 Jon Kitna DAL 119 104 64 61.54%8 Eli Manning NYG 210 198 121 61.11%9 Carson Palmer CIN 243 223 136 60.99%10 Peyton Manning IND 271 261 159 60.92%11 Josh Freeman TB 225 200 121 60.50%12 Shaun Hill DET 136 124 75 60.48%13 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 181 166 100 60.24%14 Joe Flacco BLT 306 276 162 58.70%15 Matt Cassel KC 176 158 92 58.23%16 Jay Cutler CHI 219 188 108 57.45%17 Tom Brady NE 200 190 109 57.37%18 Alex D. Smith SF 153 137 78 56.93%19 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 227 203 115 56.65%20 Sam Bradford SL 269 246 139 56.50%21 David Garrard JAX 141 119 67 56.30%22 Jason Campbell OAK 168 139 78 56.12%23 Colt McCoy CLV 119 100 56 56.00%24 Brett Favre MIN 154 148 82 55.41%25 Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 225 194 106 54.64%26 Michael Vick PHI 186 151 80 52.98%27 Donovan McNabb WAS 199 182 96 52.75%28 Mark Sanchez NYJ 251 231 120 51.95%29 Kyle Orton DEN 205 191 93 48.69%30 Bruce GradkowskiOAK 100 88 41 46.59%31 Jimmy Clausen CAR 142 116 51 43.97%32 Derek Anderson ARZ 139 127 52 40.94%Down where you don’t want to be, you get a little bit of numbers to back up what we already know when it comes to Derek Anderson. After our deep ball article looked favorably at his accuracy going downfield, you see the true problem with him. He gets flustered in stressful situations. While others excel against the blitz, he’s completing just 40.94% of his passes. When you’re ranked lower than Jimmy Clausen you got some explaining to do.
Points Not Picks
So we’ve looked at accuracy, but what about the plays that show up on highlight reels? Which players are using the blitz to put up points, and which ones are feeling the heat and turning it over? In a shocking result, Peyton Manning is at the top.
Turning the sarcasm off for a second, it is a surprise to have him joined by Mark Sanchez. For all his faults (and he has a few), Sanchez tends to work best when teams give him more of the field to exploit, handling the teams that go after him.
Code:
Touchdown to Interception Ratio When BlitzedRank Blitzed TDs INTs TD / INT1t Peyton Manning IND 271 13 3 4.31t Mark Sanchez NYJ 251 13 3 4.33 Joe Flacco BLT 306 12 4 3.04 Matt Ryan ATL 286 14 5 2.85 Michael Vick PHI 186 8 3 2.76 Sam Bradford SL 269 10 4 2.57t Eli Manning NYG 210 16 7 2.37t Jon Kitna DAL 119 9 4 2.37t Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 225 9 4 2.310t Josh Freeman TB 225 11 5 2.210t Aaron Rodgers GB 266 13 6 2.212t Carson Palmer CIN 243 10 5 2.012t Tom Brady NE 200 8 4 2.014t Matt Cassel KC 176 9 5 1.814t Kyle Orton DEN 205 7 4 1.816 Philip Rivers SD 209 10 6 1.717 Matt Schaub HST 244 8 5 1.618 Jason Campbell OAK 168 6 4 1.519t Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 227 12 9 1.319t Donovan McNabb WAS 199 8 6 1.321t Chad Henne MIA 199 7 6 1.221t David Garrard JAX 141 7 6 1.223t Drew Brees NO 282 6 6 1.023t Matt Hasselbeck SEA 181 5 5 1.023t Alex D. Smith SF 153 4 4 1.023t Jimmy Clausen CAR 142 2 2 1.027t Jay Cutler CHI 219 5 6 0.827t Bruce GradkowskiOAK 100 3 4 0.829t Shaun Hill DET 136 2 3 0.729t Colt McCoy CLV 119 2 3 0.731 Brett Favre MIN 154 4 8 0.532 Derek Anderson ARZ 139 1 5 0.2
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Pro Football Focus Grade When Blitzed QB Rating When Blitzed Grade When Blitzed1 Aaron Rodgers GB 60.9 39.02 Matt Ryan ATL 86.5 34.03 Philip Rivers SD 74.3 23.54 Eli Manning NYG 61.0 22.05 Carson Palmer CIN 63.9 22.06 Joe Flacco BLT 64.0 21.57 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 81.1 19.08 Peyton Manning IND 67.4 18.09 Matt Schaub HST 58.7 17.510 Drew Brees NO 64.3 16.011 Shaun Hill DET 52.0 14.512 Sam Bradford SL 51.0 14.013 Josh Freeman TB 79.4 13.514 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 67.7 12.515 Mark Sanchez NYJ 51.9 11.516 Chad Henne MIA 48.8 11.517 Tom Brady NE 84.5 11.018 Jason Campbell OAK 60.6 9.519 Michael Vick PHI 65.3 9.020 Jay Cutler CHI 68.9 9.021 Jon Kitna DAL 78.7 8.022 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 44.0 6.523 Brett Favre MIN 43.2 6.024 Alex D. Smith SF 66.1 4.025 David Garrard JAX 67.2 3.526 Colt McCoy CLV 53.8 2.527 Kyle Orton DEN 62.4 1.028 Matt Cassel KC 63.2 0.529 Jimmy Clausen CAR 50.3 0.530 Donovan McNabb WAS 46.7 -1.031 Bruce GradkowskiOAK 64.8 -2.032 Derek Anderson ARZ 56.1 -11.0That brings to a close our look at the quarterbacks against the blitz. With metrics there are always mitigating circumstances and it’s so with our grading: players who are blitzed more are rewarded with more opportunities to make plays.
Such is life that things are rarely perfect, but there’s plenty of food for thought here as you wonder why some quarterbacks make it look so easy, and others seem like they’re playing a different game.
That’s what the blitz can do to quarterbacks.
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[URL="http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/"]http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/[/URL]
[B]Pressure Reveals[/B]
May 16th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
I’ve recently being looking into some of the elements that factor in to making a good or bad quarterback. I broke down some numbers looking at the deep ball, and recently followed it by looking at how quarterbacks cope when blitzed.
That leads in quite nicely to the next piece. Pressure.
You give most quarterbacks a lot of time and they’ll punish you. You put them in an uncomfortable situation with a 280-pound monster coming at them, and suddenly mistakes come about a lot more freely.
Pressure was something we saw plenty of last year. Whether it was something in their Gatorade or just one of those years, the pass rushers really seemed to get the better of their offensive line counterparts. The end result being a heck of a lot of quarterbacks put under pressure.
That generates the question for this study. Who performed the best under pressure? So let’s examine that. (Note: for this piece we looked at all quarterbacks who dropped back from center at least 200 times.)
Who Is Getting Pressured
Before getting into the performance aspects, let’s look at which quarterbacks spent most of their time under pressure. It shouldn’t be looked at as the teams allowing the most pressure necessarily had the worst pass blocking offensive line, there are other things to consider. Such as: which teams keep the most men in to help, how well those extra blockers performed, the quarterback’s ability to get rid of the ball in a timely fashion, and his willingness to let pressure mount confident in his ability to dodge it.
That said, the Chicago line was brutal this year, so it’s no surprise Jay Cutler is at the top of the charts. More interesting is that below him we have four of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league. Players like Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, David Garrard and Ben Roethlisberger are players who, because of physical attributes that allow them to often shake off rushers, can afford to let a little more pressure get their way in the hopes of making a play.
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Percentage of Drop Backs Under PressureRank Player Team Drop backs % Pressured1 Jay Cutler CHI 565 41.42%2 Josh Freeman TB 544 40.99%3 Michael Vick PHI 510 40.78%4 Donovan McNabb WAS 525 40.38%5 Jason Campbell OAK 388 39.69%6 Derek Anderson ARZ 355 38.87%7 David Garrard JAX 421 37.77%8 Alex D. Smith SF 375 36.00%9 Matt Cassel KC 519 35.65%10 Ben RoethlisbergerPIT 546 35.53%11 Philip Rivers SD 591 34.86%12 Jimmy Clausen CAR 344 34.59%13 Sam Bradford SL 640 34.06%14 Brett Favre MIN 383 33.68%15 Kerry Collins TEN 292 33.56%16 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 494 33.20%17 Joe Flacco BLT 618 33.01%18 Kevin Kolb PHI 211 32.70%19 Kyle Orton DEN 545 31.56%20 Matt Ryan ATL 650 31.23%21 Eli Manning NYG 565 30.62%22 Matt Schaub HST 611 30.28%23 Tom Brady NE 572 29.90%24 Chad Henne MIA 540 29.63%25 Tony Romo DAL 223 29.60%26 Colt McCoy CLV 261 29.50%27 Shaun Hill DET 448 29.02%28 Aaron Rodgers GB 695 28.49%29 Drew Brees NO 747 28.11%30 Carson Palmer CIN 620 28.06%31 Mark Sanchez NYJ 640 27.66%32 Peyton Manning IND 724 25.55%33 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 566 24.91%34 Jon Kitna DAL 357 24.65%Meanwhile, down at the bottom you’ve got a mixture of guys who benefit from good protection (like Mark Sanchez) to guys who know if they don’t get rid of it quick then their protection is going to get them hit (Peyton Manning). For every player, the type of quarterback they are and situation they’re in has more to do with the percentage of plays they’re pressured on than just attributing it to a fault of the offensive line.
Completion Percentage
Moving into the realm of analyzing how players dealt with pressure, we’ll start with the most obvious tool: completion percentage. It may surprise you who the top dog is, with Kevin Kolb narrowly beating out Jon Kitna. Before people get too worked up about this, some things need to be taken into consideration. Firstly, both Kitna and Kolb faced a relatively low amount of pressure which makes their sample size small, but more importantly, while their completion percentage when pressured was impressive, the amount of pressure they let turn into sacks wasn’t. Nearly a quarter of the pressure they faced brought them to the ground. You can see the more elite quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Ryan) took considerably fewer.
You can also see in the last column which players’ completion percentages are affected most in pressure situations. It’s not pretty in the AFC East where Mark Sanchez has the largest drop when pressured, followed by Chad Henne, and Ryan Fitzpatrick finishing fifth. Once again, Tom Brady saves some respectability for the division, with only 14 players having less of a fall (not bad when you consider Brady completes 70.1% of passes when not pressured (eighth in the league).
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Completion and Sack Percentages When Pressured Sack % w/Press. Comp% w/Press. Change Comp. % w/Pressure1 Kevin Kolb PHI 23.19% 59.18% -2.24%2 Jon Kitna DAL 23.86% 59.02% -8.30%3 Drew Brees NO 12.38% 55.74% -16.22%4 Peyton Manning IND 9.19% 54.49% -15.45%5 Tony Romo DAL 10.61% 54.39% -20.61%6 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 22.70% 53.70% -7.69%7 Tom Brady NE 17.54% 53.24% -16.86%8 Carson Palmer CIN 14.94% 52.78% -11.85%9 Philip Rivers SD 18.45% 52.76% -18.93%10 Matt Ryan ATL 13.79% 52.66% -14.16%11 Jay Cutler CHI 23.93% 52.20% -10.97%12 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 21.13% 51.75% -13.53%13 Jason Campbell OAK 21.43% 50.91% -12.10%14 Josh Freeman TB 12.56% 50.90% -16.20%15 David Garrard JAX 20.13% 50.43% -20.48%16 Aaron Rodgers GB 19.19% 49.30% -22.10%17 Kyle Orton DEN 19.77% 49.22% -12.94%18 Shaun Hill DET 13.08% 47.62% -18.94%19 Brett Favre MIN 16.28% 47.17% -19.10%20 Joe Flacco BLT 24.02% 46.94% -21.53%21 Derek Anderson ARZ 18.12% 46.85% -7.32%22 Kerry Collins TEN 13.27% 45.88% -16.81%23 Matt Schaub HST 17.30% 45.10% -25.21%24 Eli Manning NYG 9.25% 44.74% -25.29%25 Michael Vick PHI 17.79% 44.36% -26.18%26 Matt Cassel KC 15.14% 43.36% -20.95%27 Sam Bradford SL 15.14% 43.35% -23.55%28 Donovan McNabb WAS 17.45% 41.76% -25.78%29 Colt McCoy CLV 29.87% 41.67% -24.43%30 Chad Henne MIA 18.75% 41.53% -26.30%31 Alex D. Smith SF 18.52% 41.51% -26.29%32 Ryan FitzpatrickBUF 14.02% 39.20% -25.99%33 Jimmy Clausen CAR 27.73% 39.02% -18.32%34 Mark Sanchez NYJ 16.95% 35.46% -26.52%Mark Sanchez is a particular worry. He’s afforded some of the best protection in the NFL, but when that protection is pierced, he crumbles. His 35.46% just isn’t good enough, though he does do a good job of staving off sacks.
Turning It Over
Avoiding sacks isn’t the only thing Sanchez does well when he’s faced with pressure. The 2.82% of his pressured throws that ended up as interceptions is the 18th lowest figure, so, respectable enough. It’s not as good as Matt Ryan (0.49%) or Tom Brady (0.58%) but then their numbers are verging on the miraculous. Ryan in particular has an amazing touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is pressured.
Ryan isn’t at the top in percentage of pressured passes that go for touchdowns; both Kevin Kolb and Eli Manning finished with a higher percentage. But, you have to take into account that Kolb was working with a smaller sample size, and Eli also had the second highest percentage of throws under pressure ending up in interceptions (he can thank Brett Favre for not finishing with the highest). So good was Ryan under pressure when it came to throwing touchdowns and not picks, that his ratio of touchdowns to interceptions (10:1) was superior to all others by a large distance, with only really Tom Brady getting close.
Special credit as well to Josh Freeman. He managed to finish with the third best TD:INT ratio as well as the fifth lowest percentage of interceptions and fourth highest percentage of touchdowns when throwing under pressure.
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Touchdown to Interception Ratio When PressuredRank Player Team TD % w/Press. INT% w/Press. TD:INT w/Pressure1 Matt Ryan ATL 4.93% 0.49% 10.002 Tom Brady NE 3.51% 0.58% 6.003 Josh Freeman TB 4.48% 1.35% 3.334 Kevin Kolb PHI 7.25% 2.90% 2.505 Tony Romo DAL 3.03% 1.52% 2.006 Jon Kitna DAL 2.27% 1.14% 2.007 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 3.61% 2.06% 1.758 Alex D. Smith SF 3.70% 2.22% 1.679 Matt Cassel KC 3.78% 2.70% 1.4010 Joe Flacco BLT 2.45% 1.96% 1.2511 Mark Sanchez NYJ 3.39% 2.82% 1.2012 Michael Vick PHI 2.88% 2.40% 1.2013 Philip Rivers SD 2.91% 2.43% 1.2014 David Garrard JAX 3.77% 3.14% 1.2015 Eli Manning NYG 5.78% 5.20% 1.1116 Kerry Collins TEN 2.04% 2.04% 1.0017 Matt Schaub HST 2.70% 2.70% 1.0018 Jimmy Clausen CAR 0.84% 0.84% 1.0019 Colt McCoy CLV 3.90% 3.90% 1.0020 Carson Palmer CIN 2.87% 3.45% 0.8321 Chad Henne MIA 2.50% 3.13% 0.8022 Peyton Manning IND 3.24% 4.32% 0.7523 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 2.13% 2.84% 0.7524 Aaron Rodgers GB 2.53% 3.54% 0.7125 Jay Cutler CHI 2.14% 2.99% 0.7126 Drew Brees NO 2.86% 4.29% 0.6727 Sam Bradford SL 1.83% 2.75% 0.6728 Kyle Orton DEN 2.33% 3.49% 0.6729 Jason Campbell OAK 1.95% 3.90% 0.5030 Brett Favre MIN 3.10% 6.98% 0.4431 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 1.22% 3.05% 0.4032 Shaun Hill DET 0.77% 2.31% 0.3333 Derek Anderson ARZ 0.72% 2.17% 0.3334 Donovan McNabb WAS 0.94% 3.30% 0.29Down at the bottom we’ve got Donovan McNabb, and you probably have a better idea why the Redskins haven’t exactly bought into the long time Eagle. When put behind a shaky offensive line, the mistakes kept coming, he threw just two touchdowns compared to seven interceptions when pressured.
Grading
So now we come to our final breakdown. Grading. We pride ourselves on our ability to apply our set of standards to every play and grade objectively and we’ve got some grades here for when QB’s were pressured. This won’t just look into their ability to throw since we grade on a number of facets of each play (when they hold onto the ball too long, etc.). It encompasses quite a lot and explains why we’re so high on certain players.
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PFF Grades When PressuredRank Player Team QB Rating w/Press. Grade w/Pressure1 Aaron Rodgers GB 60.9 19.02 Peyton Manning IND 67.4 16.03 Matt Ryan ATL 86.5 13.54 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 81.1 11.55 Josh Freeman TB 79.4 11.06 Philip Rivers SD 74.3 11.07 Michael Vick PHI 65.3 8.58 Shaun Hill DET 52.0 8.09 Tom Brady NE 84.5 7.510 Carson Palmer CIN 63.9 7.511 Colt McCoy CLV 53.8 7.012 Tony Romo DAL 80.6 7.013 Jay Cutler CHI 68.9 7.014 Eli Manning NYG 61.0 4.515 David Garrard JAX 67.2 4.516 Drew Brees NO 64.3 3.017 Jason Campbell OAK 60.6 1.518 Matt Cassel KC 63.2 0.519 Matt Schaub HST 58.7 0.520 Kyle Orton DEN 62.4 0.521 Alex D. Smith SF 66.1 0.022 Jon Kitna DAL 78.7 0.023 Jimmy Clausen CAR 50.3 -1.024 Kevin Kolb PHI 91.4 -1.525 Kerry Collins TEN 61.8 -1.526 Sam Bradford SL 51.0 -1.527 Derek Anderson ARZ 56.1 -1.528 Joe Flacco BLT 64.0 -2.529 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 67.7 -4.030 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 44.0 -4.531 Chad Henne MIA 48.8 -5.532 Mark Sanchez NYJ 51.9 -6.533 Brett Favre MIN 43.2 -7.534 Donovan McNabb WAS 46.7 -10.0It also explains a little bit about why I was dumbfounded to see Donovan McNabb make any top 100 list based on his 2010 performance. Perhaps the most telling aspect of it all, though, is how pressure highlights flaws. Mark Sanchez may have plenty of playoff wins, but it should concern Jets fans that the reason he needs to win them on the road largely boils down to his play (the rest of the team is as talented as any in the NFL). If there’s one area he needs to improve in, it’s how he handles pressure. If he can do this, you’d be more inclined to agree with Rex Ryan’s assessment that a Super Bowl is going to be heading to the green & white half of New York.
When I look at how quarterbacks deal with being pressured, it tells me a lot about their value in the league. It’s turning a potentially negative play into something positive; some guys can do it, and some guys can’t.
When it’s all said and done, I’m a lot happier having the former guy, than the latter playing quarterback for me.
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[URL="http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/06/surrendering-pressure/"]http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/06/surrendering-pressure/[/URL]
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Surrendering Pressure
June 6th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
In the first part of our week long look at pass protection, we’re going to be breaking down which teams are giving up the most pressure. It will be the first of three key components we’ll inspect before our team pass protection rankings arrive on Thursday and Friday.
For this piece, it’s all about how much pressure is allowed and who is giving it up. We’re not just looking at the offensive line, but every offensive player – including the quarterbacks. That’s a point you’ll see me reiterate often this week as we sort out which offenses are the best when it comes to the many different elements of what constitutes pass protection.
What we’ve done for this piece is a very simple formula: the amount of pressure given up (sacks, hits, and hurries) divided by the total number of pass snaps. This gives us a Pressure Allowed Per Play Percentage, and forms the crux of this article.
Let’s begin with the team that gives up the least, the Seattle Seahawks. No team gave up less pressure per play than the NFC West champs, with their offensive line doing a particularly good job of not allowing oncoming rushers to get to their QB. The surprising star of the unit wasn’t solid rookie Russell Okung, but less-heralded Sean Locklear.
The Seahawks are in the good company, with Indianapolis hot on their heels. That’s no great reflection on the ability of Indy’s offensive line, but a big indictment of how impressive Peyton Manning is. No quarterback does as good a job of not letting pressure get to him, with only 0.88% of Colts pass plays resulting in pressure because Manning held onto the ball too long. The only player to better that number? The possibly soon-to-be retired Carson Palmer of the Bengals.
At the bottom, it won’t be a shock to see who had the biggest issues, and it gives even more reason to credit Ben Roethlisberger. Despite the Steelers surrendering pressure on over half of their pass plays (the only team to do so), they still reached the Super Bowl. Looking back on our Pressure Reveals article, a lot of this has to do with Big Ben’s ability to make plays when he’s forced to move around in the pocket (he finished with our fourth highest grade on the year in this area).
Right behind Pittsburgh was a 10-win team who also needs to thank their quarterback for making the most of some, at times, shoddy pass protection. The more you watch him, the more you think that picking up Josh Freeman in the 2009 draft may be one of the shrewdest moves Tampa Bay has made. The Buc QB finished fifth in our grading under pressure, behind a line that was among the worst in the league when it came to giving up pressure.
In any case, we’ll get into the reasons shortly, but for now here’s the list of teams that give up the most pressure on a per play basis:
[size="6"]Pressure Per Play Percentage, 2010Rank Team PassSnaps Pressures Pressure Per Play Percentage (PPP%)1 SEA 714 202 28.29%2 NYJ 687 206 29.99%3 IND 746 226 30.29%4 NYG 597 190 31.83%5 ATL 706 225 31.87%6 DAL 668 214 32.04%7 DET 715 232 32.45%8 MIA 644 212 32.92%9 HST 646 215 33.28%10 CAR 573 198 34.55%11 CLV 555 192 34.59%12 GB 810 282 34.81%13 MIN 597 209 35.01%14 CIN 660 232 35.15%15 NO 780 278 35.64%16 TEN 544 198 36.40%17 NE 618 227 36.73%18 DEN 678 253 37.32%19 SD 615 240 39.02%20 BUF 605 237 39.17%21 SL 673 264 39.23%22 ARZ 642 252 39.25%23 BLT 656 260 39.63%24 PHI 754 313 41.51%25 JAX 565 241 42.65%26 KC 577 247 42.81%27 SF 590 255 43.22%28 WAS 699 305 43.63%29 OAK 609 276 45.32%30 CHI 665 308 46.32%31 TB 592 280 47.30%32 PIT 681 344 50.51%[/size] Offensive Line
We now dig into which offensive lines give up the most pressure as a percentage of their total number of snaps. We’ll start with the impressive New York Jets line doing everything they can to keep Mark Sanchez trouble free in the pocket – with good reason, given how he finished 32nd out of 34 in our QB grades under pressure. You’d dare not wonder how much the Jets would struggle if they didn’t have excellent players like D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Damien Woody last year. But they did, and it’s a big reason they’ve made it to the last two AFC Championship games.
In a similar fashion, Chad Henne can’t really ask for much more from his offensive line. Led by a truly elite left tackle in Jake Long, only two offensive lines allowed a smaller percentage of pressure per pass play, and it’s scary to think how much worse he would appear behind a lesser line.
Things don’t look so positive for the Chicago Bears who finished with the highest percentage. “Helped” immensely by the rookie struggles of J’Marcus Webb, the Bears hope to have at least partially rectified this with the drafting Gabe Carimi. Time will tell.
They’re followed by two teams who we’ve already mentioned in the Steelers and Bucs. While Pittsburgh’s problems were there for all to see after losing both of their starting tackles for the year, the troubles in Tampa were a lit bit less publicized. In fact, they were completely ignored. The benching of Jeremy Trueblood didn’t improve things as much as some would have you believe, and if we’re being completely honest, the selection of Donald Penn to the Pro Bowl was about as bad a pick as there was. Again, they can thank Josh Freeman for making so much out of so little.
The table below shows how much pressure offensive lines gave up on a per pass play basis:
[size="6"]Pressure Per Play Percentage, Offensive Lines, 2010Rank Team Cumulative O-Line Pass Protection Snaps OL Pressures Allowed OL PPP%1 NYJ 3482 143 4.11%2 SEA 3570 151 4.23%3 MIA 3231 137 4.24%4 HST 3230 137 4.24%5 CIN 3320 145 4.37%6 BLT 3294 148 4.49%7 CAR 2866 130 4.54%8 DAL 3340 152 4.55%9t ATL 3523 161 4.57%9t CLV 2778 127 4.57%11 GB 4051 191 4.71%12 NO 3896 188 4.83%13t NYG 3023 147 4.86%13t DET 3578 174 4.86%15 MIN 2990 146 4.88%16 DEN 3396 169 4.98%17 SL 3359 170 5.06%18 IND 3730 190 5.09%19 NE 3096 159 5.14%20 BUF 3025 158 5.22%21 TEN 2720 148 5.44%22 PHI 3773 209 5.54%23 ARZ 3209 181 5.64%24 KC 2891 166 5.74%25 WAS 3485 203 5.82%26 SD 3077 184 5.98%27 SF 2955 178 6.02%28 OAK 3024 185 6.12%29 JAX 2833 177 6.25%30 PIT 3406 223 6.55%31 TB 2965 197 6.64%32 CHI 3327 223 6.70%[/size] Skill Positions
It’s not just the offensive line that matters. We’ll look at quarterbacks separately below, but for now what of the running backs, receivers (yes they occasionally stay into pass block at times) and tight ends?
The Super Bowl champions led the way when it came to skill players being kept in to block and doing so effectively. None who stayed in on more than five occasions ended the year with a negative pass blocking grade. Maybe more teams will consider carrying three fullbacks on the roster if players like Quinn Johnson, John Kuhn, and Korey Hall can improve your pass protection this much.
They were quite a way ahead of the next-best New York Giants, who can thank the excellence of Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the best in the business at blitz pick up, for them finishing so high.
For as good as they were, the New Orleans Saints were bad in this department. You can put the blame on a few people with Dave Thomas giving up eight quarterback disruptions, and the quintet of backs (Julius Jones, Heath Evans, Reggie Bush, Ladell Betts and Pierre Thomas) allowing 24 between them. They were narrowly worse than the Baltimore Ravens who saw a real down year (in pass pro) for both Ray Rice (17 pressures allowed) and Le’Ron McClain (11).
[size="6"]Pressure Per Play Percentage, Skill Positions, 2010Rank Team Skill Player Pass Protection Snaps Skill Pressures Allowed Skill PPP%1 GB 539 17 3.15%2 NYG 406 17 4.19%3 KC 416 19 4.57%4 SEA 458 21 4.59%5 CIN 322 16 4.97%6 DEN 587 30 5.11%7 ATL 350 19 5.43%8 OAK 559 31 5.55%9 JAX 288 16 5.56%10 IND 293 18 6.14%11 DAL 401 25 6.23%12 NYJ 318 20 6.29%13 HST 300 19 6.33%14 SD 313 20 6.39%15 MIN 308 20 6.49%16 CLV 273 18 6.59%17 PIT 363 25 6.89%18 ARZ 360 26 7.22%19 MIA 536 39 7.28%20 CHI 498 37 7.43%21 BUF 343 27 7.87%22 CAR 330 27 8.18%23 TB 339 28 8.26%24 SF 262 22 8.40%25 SL 409 35 8.56%26 NE 303 26 8.58%27 DET 221 19 8.60%28 PHI 359 32 8.91%29 WAS 310 28 9.03%30 TEN 236 23 9.75%31 BLT 437 44 10.07%32 NO 404 41 10.15%[/size] Of course some pressure isn’t just about a man up front getting beat. Sometimes it’s a case of the quarterback failing to get rid of the ball and inviting pressure onto himself. So, which teams are best at avoiding that? As previously mentioned, both Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning did an exceptional job when it came to not making matters worse and others weren’t far behind. The Washington combination of Rex Grossman and Donovan McNabb weren’t given much of an opportunity to add trouble with their line’s inability to delay the rush.
Things weren’t so great in Minnesota, where Brett Favre held onto the ball too long, struggling to cope without Sidney Rice. Joe Flacco also had some problems in Baltimore, always seeming to want more time. Those are some of the less excusable names at the bottom, as opposed to the more understandable feature of Philadelphia at No. 29. When you have a player like Michael Vick you can let plays develop and pressure come because he can get out of it and turn it into something.
[size="6"]QB-Invited Pressures, 2010 QB-Invited Pressures QBP%1 CIN 2 0.86%2 IND 2 0.88%3 WAS 3 0.98%4 NYG 2 1.05%5 JAX 3 1.24%6 DAL 3 1.40%7 TEN 4 2.02%8 BUF 5 2.11%9 OAK 6 2.17%10 ARZ 6 2.38%11 GB 7 2.48%12 NO 7 2.52%13 SL 7 2.65%14 MIA 6 2.83%15 TB 8 2.86%16 SD 7 2.92%17 DET 7 3.02%18 CAR 6 3.03%19 ATL 7 3.11%20 PIT 11 3.20%21 SEA 7 3.47%22 CHI 11 3.57%23 HST 8 3.72%24 DEN 10 3.95%25 NE 9 3.96%26 KC 10 4.05%27 SF 11 4.31%28 NYJ 9 4.37%29 PHI 14 4.47%30 CLV 9 4.69%31 BLT 16 6.15%32 MIN 14 6.70%[/size] So there you have our breakdown of who’s allowing the pressure. You’ll realize there’s a large percentage of pressure unaccounted for, and those are due to unblocked players that come free against roll outs or on overload blitzes, etc. Our goal here, though, is to show where the responsibility lies for all plays that can be attributed.
Ultimately, it’s a combination of things that make a team an efficient pass blocking unit. Tomorrow we’ll follow up by looking at the difference in how teams allow pressure to turn into to sacks. All of you pass-blocking aficionado’s stay tuned all week as we break down parts of pass protection before unveiling our team rankings.
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I'll be considering this info when doing my projections and strength of schedule for QBs.
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