Under valued QB's (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

There is a group of 6-10 QB's that owners can draft and confidently say they expect good things from them. After that, though, it becomes more of a guessing game. Every year there's going to be value and this year there could be a lot of it. Those guys drafted as QB2's that produce like top 7 QB's. I'm going to focus on the guys we know less about (i.e. not the Cutler's, Carson's, or limited upside guys like Garrard and Eli). Lets look at the candidates...

Chad Henne - has all the tools to be a successful QB, his biggest question coming out of school is tunnel vision tendencies towards his #1 WR. Well, even if this is still an issue, as Brandon Marshall has shown in the past an offense encompassing tunnel vision for him can be an effective one. If Henne has fixed the issue I think he is huge this year, if not he'll still be solid and produce positive value for where he's drafted. Get him.

Matt Stafford - it appears as though the Lions are going to be passing a lot this season. The running game is a mess, at best, and the defense (while improved) still has a long ways to go to be average. Stafford's going to throw his share of INT's but he showed a lot of signs for optimism in year 1 and QB's historically make the most progress from year 1 to year 2. Healthy weapons (Calvin, Pettigrew, and Stafford himself) will go a long ways towards helping Stafford follow that trend. Additions of Burleson and (might be reaching here) the continued development of Derrick Williams (or plan B in Bryant Johnson - a fine #3 but not a #2) can only help.

Matt Ryan - some may have him in the top 10, I think those people are right. Him, and most of Atlanta's offense, was hobbled last season. Roddy and Ryan played hurt, Turner was on again off again, as were his backups, and Harry Douglas was gone before the season even began. He'll be the most expensive of the young QB's, but he's worth it.

Joe Flacco - the addition of Q is reason for optimism, but his lack of development in year 2 is reason for concern. I'm less optimistic about him, from a fantasy perspective anyway, than the above 3. I see the angle, I just think the others are better bets.

Mark Sanchez - never been a fan, a run-heavy attack with a strong defense is the best setup for success imo but won't help you in fantasy at all. He'll make some plays because of the strong run game commanding attention and play makers to hit those home runs when they dial them up but his ceiling is very limited. Pass.

Kevin Kolb - unlike Sanchez, he has short term upside, I'd rank Kolb higher...but not by much. I don't think Philly's QB for the future is currently on the roster. Kolb is simply not effective reading defenses or going down field consistently. He's lucky that he has a deep threat like DeSean (and a quality compliment like Maclin) because his ability to create separation deep is what will give Kolb the opportunity to make those throws. If he didn't have a deep threat like DeSean he would not be able to stretch the defense. Ultimately his poor decision making will be his downfall, I'd rather not be stuck with him when that happens.

I think those 5 are the most interesting ones to discuss, there are several other options (Leinart, Alex Smith, Freeman, Whitehurst, etc.) so if you're higher on any of them throw their name into the hat too.

 

[Instinctive]

How can we say that about Kolb when he has literally played in only 2 games, one of which the defense allowed 3 TDs extremely early and they had to pass all game?

 

[MAC_32]

How can we say that about Kolb when he has literally played in only 2 games, one of which the defense allowed 3 TDs extremely early and they had to pass all game?

My analysis is based a lot more on his play in college than the pros.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Eli Manning quietly had his best season as a pro last year.

I don't see how his upside is limited if anything he could repeat last years numbers and maybe even better them...

He threw for 4021 yards, 62% completion, 27 td's to 14 ints. He also did this while playing through an injury. The guy has not missed a game and plays through injury.

He also is still only 29 years old. If anything Eli many may have finally turned the corner with his completion percentage as his last two years have both been over 60%. Eli has developed a nice chemistry with Steve Smith a sure handed WR who knows how to get open, he has a play maker in Nicks, a speedster in Mannignham, a descent pass blocking O line and a huge TE in Boss as a safety guy as well.

If anything Eli may be poised to be a consistent top 10 fantasy QB the next 2 -3 years. Eli has the securtiy of being a franchise QB and he may well be under valued heading into this year.

 

[akaoni]

Eli Manning quietly had his best season as a pro last year. I don't see how his upside is limited if anything he could repeat last years numbers and maybe even better them...He threw for 4021 yards, 62% completion, 27 td's to 14 ints. He also did this while playing through an injury. The guy has not missed a game and plays through injury.He also is still only 29 years old. If anything Eli many may have finally turned the corner with his completion percentage as his last two years have both been over 60%. Eli has developed a nice chemistry with Steve Smith a sure handed WR who knows how to get open, he has a play maker in Nicks, a speedster in Mannignham, a descent pass blocking O line and a huge TE in Boss as a safety guy as well. If anything Eli may be poised to be a consistent top 10 fantasy QB the next 2 -3 years. Eli has the securtiy of being a franchise QB and he may well be under valued heading into this year.

I have never been high on Eli as a QB, but that has largely been because with the name Manning and the big NY market, he has always been over valued. I think he might be a good value pick this year, however.

 

[az_prof]

There is a group of 6-10 QB's that owners can draft and confidently say they expect good things from them. After that, though, it becomes more of a guessing game. Every year there's going to be value and this year there could be a lot of it. Those guys drafted as QB2's that produce like top 7 QB's. I'm going to focus on the guys we know less about (i.e. not the Cutler's, Carson's, or limited upside guys like Garrard and Eli). Lets look at the candidates...Chad Henne - has all the tools to be a successful QB, his biggest question coming out of school is tunnel vision tendencies towards his #1 WR. Well, even if this is still an issue, as Brandon Marshall has shown in the past an offense encompassing tunnel vision for him can be an effective one. If Henne has fixed the issue I think he is huge this year, if not he'll still be solid and produce positive value for where he's drafted. Get him.Matt Stafford - it appears as though the Lions are going to be passing a lot this season. The running game is a mess, at best, and the defense (while improved) still has a long ways to go to be average. Stafford's going to throw his share of INT's but he showed a lot of signs for optimism in year 1 and QB's historically make the most progress from year 1 to year 2. Healthy weapons (Calvin, Pettigrew, and Stafford himself) will go a long ways towards helping Stafford follow that trend. Additions of Burleson and (might be reaching here) the continued development of Derrick Williams (or plan B in Bryant Johnson - a fine #3 but not a #2) can only help.Matt Ryan - some may have him in the top 10, I think those people are right. Him, and most of Atlanta's offense, was hobbled last season. Roddy and Ryan played hurt, Turner was on again off again, as were his backups, and Harry Douglas was gone before the season even began. He'll be the most expensive of the young QB's, but he's worth it.Joe Flacco - the addition of Q is reason for optimism, but his lack of development in year 2 is reason for concern. I'm less optimistic about him, from a fantasy perspective anyway, than the above 3. I see the angle, I just think the others are better bets.Mark Sanchez - never been a fan, a run-heavy attack with a strong defense is the best setup for success imo but won't help you in fantasy at all. He'll make some plays because of the strong run game commanding attention and play makers to hit those home runs when they dial them up but his ceiling is very limited. Pass.Kevin Kolb - unlike Sanchez, he has short term upside, I'd rank Kolb higher...but not by much. I don't think Philly's QB for the future is not currently on the roster. Kolb is simply not effective reading defenses or going down field consistently. He's lucky that he has a deep threat like DeSean (and a quality compliment like Maclin) because his ability to create separation deep is what will give Kolb the opportunity to make those throws. If he didn't have a deep threat like DeSean he would not be able to stretch the defense. Ultimately his poor decision making will be his downfall, I'd rather not be stuck with him when that happens.I think those 5 are the most interesting ones to discuss, there are several other options (Leinart, Alex Smith, Freeman, Whitehurst, etc.) so if you're higher on any of them throw their name into the hat too.

I like all the guys you mention but may rank them differently. To be honest, I am not in the market for a QB because I have Brees, but this is my initial thoughts on the guys you mention.Henne: The Marshall add is huge. But is he really better than all these other guys even with Marshall? I don't like drafting potential and in his case you are doing that and hoping he improves quite a bit. Factor in the Wildcat and the fact that Miami is a run first team and I just don't see him putting up huge numbers in 2010.Stafford: his rookie numbers were not impressive at all. He is coming off an injury. You assume he will suffer not ill effects from the injury but what if he doesn't recover fully? I DO think the add of Burleson as a WR2 will help. What would really help him is if they drafted a HB who could catch out of the backfield ala Ray Rice. Count me in the camp who doesn't want to own any Detroit players until they show something as a unit.Ryan: I like the kid and I like White as his WR1 and Gonzo as his TE. I just don't see why people think he is that much better than Flacco. I would be happy with Ryan but think he is a bit overrated compared to Flacco. Am I wrong in thinking that based on QB rating Ryan regressed in year 2 and Flacco improved? Do people just discount that?Flacco: The kid plays tough and reminds me of Big Ben. He knows how to win. The addition of Boldin to go with Mason and Rice is a pretty good thing. His targets are better than Ryan's overall.Sanchez: I liked what I saw and I like him much better than Stafford based on what I saw. Now you add Holmes to an already decent WR corps and what is not to like? NY is a run first team? Certainly they were in Sanchez' rookie year but he won't be a rookie in 2010 and Thomas Jones is gone. I think the team will rely on their sophomore QB more than they did in 2009. Kolb has perhaps the best offensive situation of any of these guys. You have to love the WRs in PHI and the offense is one of the most pass happy. Kolb looked very good in relief but it is FAIR to question whether he can step in on a week to week basis. He still has a lot to prove but I do like that situation.So I would rank like this:1) Flacco2) Ryan3) Sanchez4) Kolb5) Henne6) StaffordI wouldn't want to count on any of these guys as my QB1 except for maybe Flacco and Ryan. The others are still QB2's that you hope will surprise.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Joe Flacco - the addition of Q is reason for optimism, but his lack of development in year 2 is reason for concern. I'm less optimistic about him, from a fantasy perspective anyway, than the above 3. I see the angle, I just think the others are better bets.

Flacco made very nice strides last season, improving his sack rate, his TD rate, his INT rate and his yards per attempt ratio. What lack of development do you mean?

 

[EBF]

Henne was underrated BEFORE the Marshall trade. The guy could easily be better than Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman next season. He's definitely an ideal QB2 because he offers job security and upside.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Eli Manning quietly had his best season as a pro last year. I don't see how his upside is limited if anything he could repeat last years numbers and maybe even better them...He threw for 4021 yards, 62% completion, 27 td's to 14 ints. He also did this while playing through an injury. The guy has not missed a game and plays through injury.He also is still only 29 years old. If anything Eli many may have finally turned the corner with his completion percentage as his last two years have both been over 60%. Eli has developed a nice chemistry with Steve Smith a sure handed WR who knows how to get open, he has a play maker in Nicks, a speedster in Mannignham, a descent pass blocking O line and a huge TE in Boss as a safety guy as well. If anything Eli may be poised to be a consistent top 10 fantasy QB the next 2 -3 years. Eli has the securtiy of being a franchise QB and he may well be under valued heading into this year.

I've been a big Eli basher for years, but it does appear like he's finally turned the corner. He averaged nearly 8 yards per attempt last season, well above his typical production. Was it a fluke or a trend? New York is becoming a pass first team overnight, and I think all the young weapons could really come together for Eli. I'm so used to being a hater of his that it feels weird to say it, but I think Manning has a huge ceiling for 2010. I don't know how you can group him with Garrard.

 

[TheFanatic]

Eli Manning quietly had his best season as a pro last year. I don't see how his upside is limited if anything he could repeat last years numbers and maybe even better them...He threw for 4021 yards, 62% completion, 27 td's to 14 ints. He also did this while playing through an injury. The guy has not missed a game and plays through injury.He also is still only 29 years old. If anything Eli many may have finally turned the corner with his completion percentage as his last two years have both been over 60%. Eli has developed a nice chemistry with Steve Smith a sure handed WR who knows how to get open, he has a play maker in Nicks, a speedster in Mannignham, a descent pass blocking O line and a huge TE in Boss as a safety guy as well. If anything Eli may be poised to be a consistent top 10 fantasy QB the next 2 -3 years. Eli has the securtiy of being a franchise QB and he may well be under valued heading into this year.

I've been a big Eli basher for years, but it does appear like he's finally turned the corner. He averaged nearly 8 yards per attempt last season, well above his typical production. Was it a fluke or a trend? New York is becoming a pass first team overnight, and I think all the young weapons could really come together for Eli. I'm so used to being a hater of his that it feels weird to say it, but I think Manning has a huge ceiling for 2010. I don't know how you can group him with Garrard.

I'm in this boat. Never a fan of this kid, but maybe he just needs more than Plax, Toomer and Shockey to be a legit QB. He has a glut of talented WR's rather than a stud, a has been and a guy that was a combination of both...

 

[TheFanatic]

As for the original discussion.

Pssst. Matt Moore.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I am trying to get my hands on Stafford in every league I am. I think he has top 5 QB upside, and I fully expect him to be a QB1 THIS year, unless your league penalizes more heavily for turnovers than the norm. Call me a homer if you want, but I was so against the Stafford pick when it was made and now I am one of his biggest fans. That's how impressive he was to me this past season.

 

[MAC_32]

Eli Manning quietly had his best season as a pro last year. I don't see how his upside is limited if anything he could repeat last years numbers and maybe even better them...He threw for 4021 yards, 62% completion, 27 td's to 14 ints. He also did this while playing through an injury. The guy has not missed a game and plays through injury.He also is still only 29 years old. If anything Eli many may have finally turned the corner with his completion percentage as his last two years have both been over 60%. Eli has developed a nice chemistry with Steve Smith a sure handed WR who knows how to get open, he has a play maker in Nicks, a speedster in Mannignham, a descent pass blocking O line and a huge TE in Boss as a safety guy as well. If anything Eli may be poised to be a consistent top 10 fantasy QB the next 2 -3 years. Eli has the securtiy of being a franchise QB and he may well be under valued heading into this year.

I had completely forgotten about that injury, great reminder. After considering that I think there's more upside here than I eluded to in my first post. When the team relied on him more in 2009 because the running game was no longer top notch I thought he proved too inconsistent to handle such a responsibility. Playing injured though, that changes things. If he's healthy there's certainly room to improve.

 

[5Rings]

Matt Cassel.

Improvements this season versus last: an offseason with Charlie Weis, an improved OL, a healthy Bowe/Chambers, and a solid rushing attack.

 

[MAC_32]

Henne: The Marshall add is huge. But is he really better than all these other guys even with Marshall? I don't like drafting potential and in his case you are doing that and hoping he improves quite a bit. Factor in the Wildcat and the fact that Miami is a run first team and I just don't see him putting up huge numbers in 2010.

I think Miami was a run first team the last two seasons because they had to be given their personnel, I think the Marshall acquisition changes that dynamic and they become a more traditional offense.

Stafford: his rookie numbers were not impressive at all. He is coming off an injury. You assume he will suffer not ill effects from the injury but what if he doesn't recover fully? I DO think the add of Burleson as a WR2 will help. What would really help him is if they drafted a HB who could catch out of the backfield ala Ray Rice. Count me in the camp who doesn't want to own any Detroit players until they show something as a unit.

I'd rather gamble on health than mediocrity, but I completely understand where you're coming from. I really like what the new regime is doing and believe they're turning the corner and want to acquire Lions while they're still below market value.

Ryan: I like the kid and I like White as his WR1 and Gonzo as his TE. I just don't see why people think he is that much better than Flacco. I would be happy with Ryan but think he is a bit overrated compared to Flacco. Am I wrong in thinking that based on QB rating Ryan regressed in year 2 and Flacco improved? Do people just discount that?

Ryan got hurt, and played hurt last season. Most of his weapons did too. That's why I'm giving a pass to him.

 

[MAC_32]

Joe Flacco - the addition of Q is reason for optimism, but his lack of development in year 2 is reason for concern. I'm less optimistic about him, from a fantasy perspective anyway, than the above 3. I see the angle, I just think the others are better bets.

Flacco made very nice strides last season, improving his sack rate, his TD rate, his INT rate and his yards per attempt ratio. What lack of development do you mean?

I liked what he did early in the season, but I recall a few notes appearing that the staff didn't like his tunnel vision tendencies towards Mason and wanted him to change that. After that he didn't play nearly as well nor consistently through the rest of the season.Was this a product of Mason aging and slowing down as the season progressed? the other alternatives being lousy? Flacco? In reality it's probably a bit of all of the above, but automatically giving Flacco a pass for all of that wouldn't be wise either. QB's historically show the most progression from year 1 to year 2. Flacco wasn't bad, but I didn't see the progress you usually see from better QB's. Gives me a bit of a lack of upside red flag. The Q acquisition changes things and has me wanting to give him another chance, but it really depends on how much he costs. I think guys like Henne and Stafford will be multiple rounds cheaper than Flacco so I'll probably end up with them instead but if they're at comparable prices I'd trend towards Flacco.

 

[MAC_32]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

I think Carolina's scheme limits his upside, they want to run, run, and run some more. I have him a dyno, actually dropped Kolb for him midseason 09, and think he has potential but not until the scheme a.o personnel changes. As long as Fox is in town and Moore is a Panther I don't see that happening.

 

[frogpond11]

Let's take a look at the main targets these guys will be throwing to:

Joe Flacco -> Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason?, Todd Heap, Ray Rice

Kevin Kolb -> DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy

Chad Henne -> Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Anthony Fasano

Matt Ryan -> Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, ???

Mark Sanchez -> Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller, LT

Matthew Stafford -> Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew

Just looking at the list of potential targets for these QBs, this is how I would rank these 6 QBs:

1. Kevin Kolb - pass-happy offense, DeSean proved he almost can't be stopped last year and Kolb has the arm to get it to him deep, Maclin is a great WR2 for them, and Brent Celek is a great pass catching tight end, plus they throw to their RBs out of the backfield a lot as well(McCoy)..I like Kolb..

2. Joe Flacco - on a team with a good defense, but he has a great set of WRs to throw to in Boldin/Mason..and Heap is a pretty decent tight end..plus Rice may be the best pass catching RB in the NFL

3. Mark Sanchez - LOTS of quality targets to throw the ball to in Holmes/Cotchery/Edwards/Keller..plus they added LT who can catch it out of the backfield well. Only downside is the great defense limiting the need for a ton of offense.

4. Chad Henne - addition of Marshall has to help him, plus he still have Bess and Hartline along with Ted Ginn and a pretty good tight end with Fasano..the big concern with Henne is just the offense that MIA runs with the wildcat..plus they run a lot more in the redzone than they pass. I expect more passes in the redzone with Marshall around, but how many more? Good upside here..

5. Matt Ryan - solid QB and White/Gonzo are great targets to throw to, but who is there after that..plus ATL loves to run it and who wouldn't with Michael Turner in the backfield.

6. Matt Stafford - I like the addition of Burleson..he's better than anything else DET had opposite Calvin last year..and Pettigrew looks like a good tight end..plus DET should be playing from behind a lot next year again..and they're hurting at RB..so they should have to pass it..but I like the other 5 guys in this list better..

That's how I look at it. As far as Eli is concerned, he has a plethora of talent to throw to..nobody truly elite, but a lot of very solid WRs and a really good TE..I'd put Eli above everyone in this list. I think Eli should be very consistent as long as the pieces stay in place.

 

[thriftyrocker]

There is a group of 6-10 QB's that owners can draft and confidently say they expect good things from them.

I got 10:Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Brady, Schaub, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Favre

I think those 5 are the most interesting ones to discuss, there are several other options (Leinart, Alex Smith, Freeman, Whitehurst, etc.) so if you're higher on any of them throw their name into the hat too.

Not my favorite options but worth mentioning:Jason Campbell - If he lands in Oakland, he will pass a lot, and throw downfield a lot. He will be dirt cheap in all formats and be an ugly QB1 (some great weeks, some high TO weeks).Vince Young - I expect his rushing yds and TDs to go up now that CJ isn't running for the record. Good "committee" QB if you don't get a top QB or if you get one that might miss games (McNabb, Roeth).

 

[frogpond11]

I'm not so sure about Big Ben or McNabb in your top 10 list...Big Ben isn't going to have Holmes anymore, leaving an aging Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, Mike Wallace, and Limas Sweed?...probably a dip in Big Ben's numbers this year..especially considering he might be suspended a few games. Then McNabb isn't exactly going into a great passing situation in Washington.

I would probably take Eli Manning over both Roethlisberger and McNabb this upcoming season...

 

[Shutout]

Nice posting re: Eli. I think he has consistently been bashed and underrated but his numbers historically tell us that in FF, he's pretty daggoned good. He never misses a game, he always hovers in that 3400-3600 range with 24-28TDs. You'll maybe never get a top 5 guy but you'll always get a top 12 or so guy and that's big if you play in larger leagues.

I would take him any year (at the right draft spot) and be happy. if he does what you expect you know you have a solid guy that is going to play every week and will have some good games. If you draft some other guy that develops/surprise quickly, you play the matchups and you have in Eli the best backup FF qb you could hope for. I just don't think you can go wrong with him as long as you draft him after the obvious elite guys.

I like Matt Cassell this year. Just a hunch. Things seem to be aligning for the team to have a good FF year. I like his chances to be a guy that is way underrated compared to where he is likely going to be drafted.

 

[TheFanatic]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

I think Carolina's scheme limits his upside, they want to run, run, and run some more. I have him a dyno, actually dropped Kolb for him midseason 09, and think he has potential but not until the scheme a.o personnel changes. As long as Fox is in town and Moore is a Panther I don't see that happening.

Possibly. But the run, run, run thing could also be because they had a QB that turned out to be pretty inept. After his first start of the season, Moore threw 8 TD's to 0 interceptions in 4 games. His yards were only like 207 yards per game, but he had a very solid 4 games to end the season. Now, he could turn into the Fantasy equivalent of Aikman who was a stellar NFL QB but below average FFB QB. All that being said, the kid is going to get the opportunity to start and that can trump a ton of other factors. And the fact he will come much cheaper than the rest of these guys has to be mentioned.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Jay Cutler

Call me a homer if you want....but that OL was horrible last year...don't believe me...look at Cutler's sack number differences between Denver and chicago or you could see that he was hit the second most times in the league last year.

All the WR's were raw Hester, Knox, Bennett, Aromashadu.

Below average running game to help support the offense.

Despite all that he had more TD's than INT's....and that had to be talent with all of the INT's(his fault or not).

Enter in a new OC in Martz....whether you like him or not...he is better than Ron Turner.

 

[frogpond11]

An improved O-Line would do wonders for Chicago...Forte would all of a sudden have somewhere to go with the ball once he got it...and Cutler would have a little time to go through his reads and deliver the football to his WRs...O-Line is definitely a need for DA BEARS. I like Cutler a lot..I think an improved O-Line and maybe adding one more really good WR somehow would really boost Cutler's value a TON!

 

[TheFanatic]

An improved O-Line would do wonders for Chicago...Forte would all of a sudden have somewhere to go with the ball once he got it...and Cutler would have a little time to go through his reads and deliver the football to his WRs...O-Line is definitely a need for DA BEARS. I like Cutler a lot..I think an improved O-Line and maybe adding one more really good WR somehow would really boost Cutler's value a TON!

There does seem to be a perfect storm brewing in Chitown on Offense.

 

[bweiser]

i guess i made the wrong choice longterm last year when i went with alex smith over chad henne. i guess i will be targeting henne in my draft this year. here's hoping he falls to the end of the 2nd round where i pick.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Add Vince Young to this list. Young/Britt is going to be a strong tandem in the future. Add C Johnson and it's going to be dynamic.

 

[karmarooster]

Add Vince Young to this list. Young/Britt is going to be a strong tandem in the future. Add C Johnson and it's going to be dynamic.

CJ is so dangerous and the focal point of the defensive scheme that Vince Young always has one of the following options: 1) one or more WRs in single coverage 2) a TE matched up against a LB who is out of position because he was looking at CJ or 3) a lane to run.VYoung won't be a sexy fantasy option. He's the new Garrard. But his 250 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT and 45 rushing yards are a great value.

 

[gonzobill5]

This year I might just wait until I have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and a TE before I entertain the thought of taking a QB. I also really like Eli, Henne, and Flacco.

 

[David Yudkin]

This year I might just wait until I have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and a TE before I entertain the thought of taking a QB. I also really like Eli, Henne, and Flacco.

Here's the potential (and realistic) problem with this. "Back in the day," there were one or two elite scoring QBs and then a bunch of other guys that were nowhere near as good. So there would be a couple guys like Manning, Brady, Culpepper, or Warner that played lights out and scored insanely well. Most fantasy teams didn't have that in the lineup each week, so owners could get away with waiting and waiting on a QB because the guy you ended up starting was in or close to the pack of other QBs. Even if he wasn't a true fantasy QB1, a decent QB2 many times was good enough.Last year, there weren'tt just one or two high scoring QBs, there were 9 guys that scored in what other years would have been enough to rank as the Top QB. Even Eli (who ranked 10th) could have approached the #1 spot in other lower QB scoring seasons. So in this era, if you wait and wait on QBs and say you get 3 guys (perhaps some of the guys being mentioned in this thread) and they DON'T vault into the the Top 10, you are potentially out over 100 points on the season.I understand the concept that you could make some of that up by getting increased scoring and depth at RB/WR/TE, but I wonder whether some of those later RB and WR picks will carry minimal risk and would be considered safe bets to outperform the other candidates at their positions. Bottom line, I think the wait on QB strategy in 2010 has a chance to really blow up and cost weekly wins when your middle of the road QB posts his average scoring total and one of the many other higher scoring QBs goes off for 350 yards and 3 or 4 TD. Too many weeks like that and your team will end up getting smoked.For my teams, I have been waiting to grab the last guy in the first tier or waiting the last guy in the second tier of QBs, but I want one of the QBs from one or the other or I would not feel comfortable at all heading into the season no matter who else was on my squad. Maybe QB scoring takes a dive after last year, but I would want to make sure I have a more proven guy just to be safe.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

Jay CutlerCall me a homer if you want....but that OL was horrible last year...don't believe me...look at Cutler's sack number differences between Denver and chicago or you could see that he was hit the second most times in the league last year.All the WR's were raw Hester, Knox, Bennett, Aromashadu.Below average running game to help support the offense.Despite all that he had more TD's than INT's....and that had to be talent with all of the INT's(his fault or not).Enter in a new OC in Martz....whether you like him or not...he is better than Ron Turner.

Not a Martz fan but I do belive Cutler numbers are gonna be better than last year. I like Knox,Bennett and especially Aromashodu, who could be the Bears top WR by years' end. I think they still lack a WR1 like Cutler had in Denver(Marshall), but he's a gunslinger show he's gonna throw the ball. It all depends on how accurate he is. Thinking that Cutler and the Bears improve this year it'll be a tight race to win the division.

 

[daveR]

Tarvaris Jackson.

I had completely written him off going into last season. But (help my memory here), didn't he out-play Sage and actually look good last pre-Favre preseason?

Like I said, the memory could be fuzzy, but I seem to remember the light going on for him.

 

[Instinctive]

Nice posting re: Eli. I think he has consistently been bashed and underrated but his numbers historically tell us that in FF, he's pretty daggoned good. He never misses a game, he always hovers in that 3400-3600 range with 24-28TDs. You'll maybe never get a top 5 guy but you'll always get a top 12 or so guy and that's big if you play in larger leagues.

I would take him any year (at the right draft spot) and be happy. if he does what you expect you know you have a solid guy that is going to play every week and will have some good games. If you draft some other guy that develops/surprise quickly, you play the matchups and you have in Eli the best backup FF qb you could hope for. I just don't think you can go wrong with him as long as you draft him after the obvious elite guys.

I like Matt Cassell this year. Just a hunch. Things seem to be aligning for the team to have a good FF year. I like his chances to be a guy that is way underrated compared to where he is likely going to be drafted.

My issue with Eli, as a guy who owned him a couple times, and likes him a lot for the future, was that he always played significantly better pre-november than post-November. Last season that was less the case, but in previous years he had been a very different guy the second half of each year.

 

[TheFanatic]

Tarvaris Jackson.

I had completely written him off going into last season. But (help my memory here), didn't he out-play Sage and actually look good last pre-Favre preseason?

Like I said, the memory could be fuzzy, but I seem to remember the light going on for him.

I'm with you. I own both Tarvaris and Favre and have been offered Sage a couple of times but have passed. TJ played really well and it caused some legitimate concerns from some players when they brought in Favre until Favre played out of his mind. TJ will do well in that system when Favre leaves. The problem is, I don't think Favre is leaving this year...

 

[az_prof]

This year I might just wait until I have 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and a TE before I entertain the thought of taking a QB. I also really like Eli, Henne, and Flacco.

Here's the potential (and realistic) problem with this. "Back in the day," there were one or two elite scoring QBs and then a bunch of other guys that were nowhere near as good. So there would be a couple guys like Manning, Brady, Culpepper, or Warner that played lights out and scored insanely well. Most fantasy teams didn't have that in the lineup each week, so owners could get away with waiting and waiting on a QB because the guy you ended up starting was in or close to the pack of other QBs. Even if he wasn't a true fantasy QB1, a decent QB2 many times was good enough.Last year, there weren'tt just one or two high scoring QBs, there were 9 guys that scored in what other years would have been enough to rank as the Top QB. Even Eli (who ranked 10th) could have approached the #1 spot in other lower QB scoring seasons. So in this era, if you wait and wait on QBs and say you get 3 guys (perhaps some of the guys being mentioned in this thread) and they DON'T vault into the the Top 10, you are potentially out over 100 points on the season.I understand the concept that you could make some of that up by getting increased scoring and depth at RB/WR/TE, but I wonder whether some of those later RB and WR picks will carry minimal risk and would be considered safe bets to outperform the other candidates at their positions. Bottom line, I think the wait on QB strategy in 2010 has a chance to really blow up and cost weekly wins when your middle of the road QB posts his average scoring total and one of the many other higher scoring QBs goes off for 350 yards and 3 or 4 TD. Too many weeks like that and your team will end up getting smoked.For my teams, I have been waiting to grab the last guy in the first tier or waiting the last guy in the second tier of QBs, but I want one of the QBs from one or the other or I would not feel comfortable at all heading into the season no matter who else was on my squad. Maybe QB scoring takes a dive after last year, but I would want to make sure I have a more proven guy just to be safe.

David makes a good point. Another thing to consider is if you have three unknowns with potential, how long will it take you to figure out which one is the stud? And how many points do you miss playing matchup? One of the best things about having a guy like Brees or Manning is that you just plug them in every week knowing that even if they have a bad day this week that 9 times out of 10 they will do well. So you never miss out on that big game. Chasing the matchup in a platoon situation can leave a lot of points on your bench if you make the wrong call--and you will make the wrong call a number of times.

 

[dehaven123]

There is a group of 6-10 QB's that owners can draft and confidently say they expect good things from them. After that, though, it becomes more of a guessing game. Every year there's going to be value and this year there could be a lot of it. Those guys drafted as QB2's that produce like top 7 QB's. I'm going to focus on the guys we know less about (i.e. not the Cutler's, Carson's, or limited upside guys like Garrard and Eli). Lets look at the candidates...Chad Henne - has all the tools to be a successful QB, his biggest question coming out of school is tunnel vision tendencies towards his #1 WR. Well, even if this is still an issue, as Brandon Marshall has shown in the past an offense encompassing tunnel vision for him can be an effective one. If Henne has fixed the issue I think he is huge this year, if not he'll still be solid and produce positive value for where he's drafted. Get him.Matt Stafford - it appears as though the Lions are going to be passing a lot this season. The running game is a mess, at best, and the defense (while improved) still has a long ways to go to be average. Stafford's going to throw his share of INT's but he showed a lot of signs for optimism in year 1 and QB's historically make the most progress from year 1 to year 2. Healthy weapons (Calvin, Pettigrew, and Stafford himself) will go a long ways towards helping Stafford follow that trend. Additions of Burleson and (might be reaching here) the continued development of Derrick Williams (or plan B in Bryant Johnson - a fine #3 but not a #2) can only help.Matt Ryan - some may have him in the top 10, I think those people are right. Him, and most of Atlanta's offense, was hobbled last season. Roddy and Ryan played hurt, Turner was on again off again, as were his backups, and Harry Douglas was gone before the season even began. He'll be the most expensive of the young QB's, but he's worth it.Joe Flacco - the addition of Q is reason for optimism, but his lack of development in year 2 is reason for concern. I'm less optimistic about him, from a fantasy perspective anyway, than the above 3. I see the angle, I just think the others are better bets.Mark Sanchez - never been a fan, a run-heavy attack with a strong defense is the best setup for success imo but won't help you in fantasy at all. He'll make some plays because of the strong run game commanding attention and play makers to hit those home runs when they dial them up but his ceiling is very limited. Pass.Kevin Kolb - unlike Sanchez, he has short term upside, I'd rank Kolb higher...but not by much. I don't think Philly's QB for the future is currently on the roster. Kolb is simply not effective reading defenses or going down field consistently. He's lucky that he has a deep threat like DeSean (and a quality compliment like Maclin) because his ability to create separation deep is what will give Kolb the opportunity to make those throws. If he didn't have a deep threat like DeSean he would not be able to stretch the defense. Ultimately his poor decision making will be his downfall, I'd rather not be stuck with him when that happens.I think those 5 are the most interesting ones to discuss, there are several other options (Leinart, Alex Smith, Freeman, Whitehurst, etc.) so if you're higher on any of them throw their name into the hat too.

Really good topic and a nice well written post to support it as well.My thoughts...Not sure what your seeing in Kolb that I'm not. Really liked him in college and I like everything I see in his potential and limited track record at this level too. Can you provide some additional context to your feeling of his inability to read defenses effectively? Also, you seem to highlight Sanchez's, Ryan's, and Henne's piers at the skill positions as a significant basis for future success by their respective QB, but not w/ Kolb. I agree in this sense. Kolb's success, as well as all the other QB's highlighted, depends and is largely influenced by their piers. Just so happens that Kolb's skill position piers are the best of the group highlighted, right? Also, you have Henne ranked higher than Kolb, yet one of Henne's primary negatives is/was his tunnel vision. How does than differ w/ Kolb's perceived inability to read defenses? One is inherent of the other. I guess what I'm trying to say is I agree w/ you on Henne, but the same grading criteria would then make Kolb 1A. Dont really see a dramatic difference between the 2 going forward. I think both will be solid FF QB's nxt. yr and going forward.Here's how I see the FF value of the rest of the careers of the QB's listed, based upon my current impression of them.KolbvHennevStaffordvvFlaccovRyanvvSanchezAgain, nice topic and 1st post to get it started.

 

[Cassius]

blackdot

 

[Tanner9919]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

another Matt Shaub type of QB - undervalued,yet produces top 10 #'s with ease.I think you'll see the same from Moore this season

 

[David Yudkin]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

another Matt Shaub type of QB - undervalued,yet produces top 10 #'s with ease.I think you'll see the same from Moore this season

In essentially 8 starts for the Panthers in the past 2 seasons, Moore put up 1554 passing yards with 11 passing TD and nothing on the ground. I don't see Moore as a Top 10 prospect this season (if he is even Carolina's starting QB all season).

 

[MAC_32]

Not sure what your seeing in Kolb that I'm not. Really liked him in college and I like everything I see in his potential and limited track record at this level too. Can you provide some additional context to your feeling of his inability to read defenses effectively? Also, you seem to highlight Sanchez's, Ryan's, and Henne's piers at the skill positions as a significant basis for future success by their respective QB, but not w/ Kolb. I agree in this sense. Kolb's success, as well as all the other QB's highlighted, depends and is largely influenced by their piers. Just so happens that Kolb's skill position piers are the best of the group highlighted, right? Also, you have Henne ranked higher than Kolb, yet one of Henne's primary negatives is/was his tunnel vision. How does than differ w/ Kolb's perceived inability to read defenses? One is inherent of the other. I guess what I'm trying to say is I agree w/ you on Henne, but the same grading criteria would then make Kolb 1A. Dont really see a dramatic difference between the 2 going forward. I think both will be solid FF QB's nxt. yr and going forward.

Good stuff here, my issues with Kolb are in the system he played in college he didn't have to make reads, he just had to make throws. In Houston's system the play call came from the sideline and the intended target was also identified by someone on the sideline (don't recall who had responsibility) after the defense showed their alignment. I haven't seen progress in Kolb's game to indicate any of that has changed, when pressed to make decisions quicker than diagrammed his mechanics get sloppy and he has a tendency to make bad decisions. Good QB's minimize the damage when things don't go right, Kolb's mistakes are usually bad ones, not good.One of the big differences between Henne and Kolb is arm strength, an item most scouts over value but in case like Henne vs. Kolb it's important. That extra zip on Henne's passes can get the ball to a guy he's staring down quickly enough to prevent an int, his guy getting pummeled, or both. While tunnel vision is something he's prone to do it isn't something he does all the time. From what I saw I noted he did it a lot when he leaned on his #1 to make plays towards the end of the game or when he identified a mismatch. That's correctable, whether he does correct it or not is to be determined but fixing Henne's issues is an easier task than Kolb's, which are much more extensive.

All that said, I think Kolb has a higher ceiling in 2010 (possibly much higher) due to his system and his weapons, I just have hesitations to rank a QB I don't believe in like him too high. In the end the QB effects his weapons a lot more than his weapons effect the QB, it goes both ways but the impact is greatest on the QB's performance.

 

[glumpy]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

That's an interesting one to watch fer shoor--but he's got to have another target or three to work with.

 

[AllVolUT]

Add Vince Young to this list. Young/Britt is going to be a strong tandem in the future. Add C Johnson and it's going to be dynamic.

CJ is so dangerous and the focal point of the defensive scheme that Vince Young always has one of the following options: 1) one or more WRs in single coverage 2) a TE matched up against a LB who is out of position because he was looking at CJ or 3) a lane to run.VYoung won't be a sexy fantasy option. He's the new Garrard. But his 250 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT and 45 rushing yards are a great value.

I agree with you on VY. But 250 passing? You're calling a 4000yd season for VY? And to the poster above, Matt Moore finishing top 10 ''with ease''? FWIW, I do like both VY and Matt Moore. I also agree with the posters above on Henne and Matt Ryan.

 

[Instinctive]

As for the original discussion. Pssst. Matt Moore.

That's an interesting one to watch fer shoor--but he's got to have another target or three to work with.

He made things work with junk like Jarrett last year at the end...

 

[az_prof]

Not sure what your seeing in Kolb that I'm not. Really liked him in college and I like everything I see in his potential and limited track record at this level too. Can you provide some additional context to your feeling of his inability to read defenses effectively? Also, you seem to highlight Sanchez's, Ryan's, and Henne's piers at the skill positions as a significant basis for future success by their respective QB, but not w/ Kolb. I agree in this sense. Kolb's success, as well as all the other QB's highlighted, depends and is largely influenced by their piers. Just so happens that Kolb's skill position piers are the best of the group highlighted, right? Also, you have Henne ranked higher than Kolb, yet one of Henne's primary negatives is/was his tunnel vision. How does than differ w/ Kolb's perceived inability to read defenses? One is inherent of the other. I guess what I'm trying to say is I agree w/ you on Henne, but the same grading criteria would then make Kolb 1A. Dont really see a dramatic difference between the 2 going forward. I think both will be solid FF QB's nxt. yr and going forward.

Good stuff here, my issues with Kolb are in the system he played in college he didn't have to make reads, he just had to make throws. In Houston's system the play call came from the sideline and the intended target was also identified by someone on the sideline (don't recall who had responsibility) after the defense showed their alignment. I haven't seen progress in Kolb's game to indicate any of that has changed, when pressed to make decisions quicker than diagrammed his mechanics get sloppy and he has a tendency to make bad decisions. Good QB's minimize the damage when things don't go right, Kolb's mistakes are usually bad ones, not good.One of the big differences between Henne and Kolb is arm strength, an item most scouts over value but in case like Henne vs. Kolb it's important. That extra zip on Henne's passes can get the ball to a guy he's staring down quickly enough to prevent an int, his guy getting pummeled, or both. While tunnel vision is something he's prone to do it isn't something he does all the time. From what I saw I noted he did it a lot when he leaned on his #1 to make plays towards the end of the game or when he identified a mismatch. That's correctable, whether he does correct it or not is to be determined but fixing Henne's issues is an easier task than Kolb's, which are much more extensive.

All that said, I think Kolb has a higher ceiling in 2010 (possibly much higher) due to his system and his weapons, I just have hesitations to rank a QB I don't believe in like him too high. In the end the QB effects his weapons a lot more than his weapons effect the QB, it goes both ways but the impact is greatest on the QB's performance.

Kolb doesn't need great arm strength in that offense and it doesn't hurt to have Desean Jackson's run-after-catch tacked onto your throwing yardage...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good stuff here, my issues with Kolb are in the system he played in college he didn't have to make reads, he just had to make throws. In Houston's system the play call came from the sideline and the intended target was also identified by someone on the sideline (don't recall who had responsibility) after the defense showed their alignment. I haven't seen progress in Kolb's game to indicate any of that has changed, when pressed to make decisions quicker than diagrammed his mechanics get sloppy and he has a tendency to make bad decisions. Good QB's minimize the damage when things don't go right, Kolb's mistakes are usually bad ones, not good.

I'm just wondering where you've seen all this "lack of progression in the pros", because he's only played in 2 games in the NFL and he looked very good in those games. Yeah, he threw 3 INTs in one of them (on 51 attempts), but two of those literally came in the last minute of a game that was already out of hand when they were in desperation mode, which is pretty common. Against the eventual super bowl champs no less.

 

[MAC_32]

Good stuff here, my issues with Kolb are in the system he played in college he didn't have to make reads, he just had to make throws. In Houston's system the play call came from the sideline and the intended target was also identified by someone on the sideline (don't recall who had responsibility) after the defense showed their alignment. I haven't seen progress in Kolb's game to indicate any of that has changed, when pressed to make decisions quicker than diagrammed his mechanics get sloppy and he has a tendency to make bad decisions. Good QB's minimize the damage when things don't go right, Kolb's mistakes are usually bad ones, not good.

I'm just wondering where you've seen all this "lack of progression in the pros", because he's only played in 2 games in the NFL and he looked very good in those games. Yeah, he threw 3 INTs in one of them (on 51 attempts), but two of those literally came in the last minute of a game that was already out of hand when they were in desperation mode, which is pretty common. Against the eventual super bowl champs no less.

As I indicated earlier, my analysis leans heavily on his college performance because that sample size dwarfs what he's done in the pros. If his pro sample size had been great that'd be one thing, but he face planted trial #1 vs. Baltimore, torched one of the league's worst defense in trial #2, and had little impact on trial #3 against a below average defense (he's not to blame for the loss - just clarifying).

 

[LHUCKS]

Based on early ADP,

Leinart and Kolb.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Henne was underrated BEFORE the Marshall trade. The guy could easily be better than Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman next season. He's definitely an ideal QB2 because he offers job security and upside.

Yep, and this is what bothers me to some degree. I've REALLY been a Henne supporter the day the Dolphins drafted him from Michigan in the 2nd round. For much of his senior season, Henne played with an injuried shoulder and didn't rest it because they were in a Big 10 title race. When he had time to rest that shoulder, Michigan played Florida in a Bowl game on Jan 1st and I think that game showed everyone that didn't really know Henne before that do his thing (same for Mario Manningham and Percy Harvin although Harvin showed it all season).If you look at the attempts that Henne had in a lot of his games towards the end of last season, he had a lot I'm sure that's not what Parcells would script out but when you pass the ball 40 to 50 times a game, you're going to put up some pretty big numbers.Henne was/is on my board as a QB committe type of a drafting style, taking QB late. Having Marshall on Miami definately can't hurt Henne, it can only help his numbers I'm just hoping that the guy who wasn't high on Henne before now gets on him because Marshall is on the team.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I just posted in another thread another thing about Eli Manning that made me realize he is under valued....Here is what I posted, it was in regards to someone saying Eli and Steve Smith had lucky years due to the Gaints throwing a lot which is just not true. He was saying they are going to revert back to 2008 and restrict Manning from throwing a TON, which is also not true........

The Giants run game in 2008 was amazing, and their defense played exceptionally well the year they won that SB. The Giants run game will be hard pressed to repeat 2008 numbers as it was that good of a year, and their defense is not what it once was

People are not looking at the numbers that closely to say the Giants threw a ton last year. That is NOT correct. Eli has been starting for the Giants for the last 5 years. Over those 5 years he has not missed a game and his pass attemps are as follows, 557, 522, 529, 479, 509 (this past year). So over the course of mannings career he has averaged 519 pass attempts per season. Where is this TONS of passes that Mannnig threw last year coming from?

Another stat is Eli Manning averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game which was good for only 19th in the league, behind such guys like Chand Henne, David Garrard, Alex Smith, Matt Cassel. The Giants were balanced last year. The Giants averaged the 13th most rush attempts per game over the course of the season.

Eli Manning was just a better QB last year then people are realizing. He did not throw a TON more, he was just more productive with the throws he was making. His percentage was up as well as his YPA. He also has the ability to throw TD's consistently as he is a lock to throw 20 plus TD's every year.