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Upcoming extra point decision (1 Viewer)

Bri

Footballguy
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/05/18/extra-point-changes-proposals-two-point-attempt-conversion-tim-tebow/27529223/

How much difference might 13 yards make?

The NFL appears ready to find out.

Team owners are preparing to review three proposals this week to change the extra point — including one that moves the line of scrimmage for the point after kick attempt from the 2-yard line to the 15, changing a chip-shot to what amounts to a more challenging 32- or 33-yard field goal.

The idea is to spice up a play that had become so routine that it is typically an afterthought, with NFL kickers making more than 99 % of all extra points in each of the past five seasons. The idea is, that by making the extra point more challenging, coaches might be convinced to attempt the more difficult two-point conversion with more frequency.

"I know they want more aggression from the standpoint of what's going on and encouraging you to go for it and those types of things," Denver Broncos head coachGary Kubiak said.

All three proposals — one each submitted by the New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and one from the league's competition committee — include moving the line of scrimmage to the 15 for PAT attempts.

Two of the proposals — Philadelphia's and the NFL's — also include changes to the two-point conversion and would allow the defense to score points on the play, such as in the case of an interception or a fumble return. The Eagles' two-point conversion proposal would also place the ball at the 1-yard line (it's currently snapped from the 2).

These proposals are more moderate than previous options — like the experiment last preseason to snap the ball from the 20 for extra points, or the Pro Bowl experiment to narrow the uprights — Indianapolis Colts star Adam Vinatieri struggled badly with those — or the idea to eliminate the PAT altogether.

Though owners weren't ready to vote on any tweaks during league meetings in March, there is momentum to push through a change at the next round of owners meetings Tuesday and Wednesday in San Francisco. A proposal needs the approval of 24 of the 32 owners to pass.

If one of those initiatives passes, it would be the first significant scoring change to the game in recent history. The NFL implemented the two-point try in 1994.

More text at link

 
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Long overdue.

Xp's are way too easy.

Moving it back 15 yards will still be easy for NFL kickers, but at least you will see a few missed ones now.

 
Long overdue.

Xp's are way too easy.

Moving it back 15 yards will still be easy for NFL kickers, but at least you will see a few missed ones now.
I hope they adopt the 15/2 proposal, and similarly hope that most teams stop doing XPs, except at the end when the situation dictates that is a good strategy
 
Move the extra point from the 2 to the 1. It's dumb to have the same play possibly start from 2 different locations. If you want the extra point to mean something, give them an incentive to score 2 55% of the time

 
I would like to see any kicked extra points be considered a continuation of the play that just scored. To kick it you have to do so with the men who were on the field during the score. That could be regular offensive, defensive, or special team personnel depending on the scoring play being an offensive, defensive, or special teams play. We could have W.R.'s, Q.B.'s, D.B.'s, K.R.'s attempting the kick. Hell, we might even have big ol linemen making the kick. This would bring the excitement back to kicked extra points. Now if the team determines to go for two they would be allowed to substitute personnel onto the field for that attempt. Problem solved, excitement added, coaching possibilities expanded,

 
Eh, another case of the NFL trying to fix something that isn't broken. Does anyone really care they kickers hardly ever miss XPs? I know I don't. Are they going to miss any more of them now because they're kicking from the 15 instead of the 2? Probably not.

 
Like the new rule. PATs have become automatic over the years.

Easy rule change: Ban soccer style kicking. Make it a rule that NFL kickers must lineup directly behind the holder and kick straight on. Much more room for errors Before soccer style a good NFL kicker was in the 60- 65% area for FGs. Now you get cut if you are in 80-84% range.

 
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Can someone explain to me why PATs being "automatic" are a bad thing? Is anyone really going to get that much more excited about watching a PAT from the 15 yard line? So it goes from a <1% chance of it missing to a <5% chance of missing? I'm guessing the odds are still 95%+ of it being made. Oh man, I can barely contain myself thinking about how much more excitement those extra 13 yards are going to bring! :rolleyes:

I got an idea that will bring excitement, instead of TD -> Commercial -> XP -> Commercial -> kickoff -> Commercial

How about TD -> XP -> Commercial -> Kickoff -> 1st offensive snap. Now that'll bring excitement!

 
Does anyone really care they kickers hardly ever miss XPs?

Are they going to miss any more of them now because they're kicking from the 15 instead of the 2?
Yes and yes.
Really? I can't say I've ever watched an NFL game and thought to myself, "I wish the league would push back the XPs because it's just too easy".

Ok and so they go from having a 99% chance at making to a 95% chance of making them. Big deal.

 
Discussion thus far today vote tomorrow-there's a bunch of articles coming out now and probably the rest of the afternoon. Like the Texans owner says below-in many of these articles the owners all seem in favor of passing the defensive scoring aspect. The offensive side seems like the owners all have their favorite ideas and aren't on the same page. They'll need to agree on one solution by tomorrow.

“I’m in favor of that, and I think it’ll pass,” McNair said. “I think everybody’s in favor of letting the defense score if they can block a kick, pick up a fumble or intercept a pass.”

 
Move the extra point from the 2 to the 1. It's dumb to have the same play possibly start from 2 different locations. If you want the extra point to mean something, give them an incentive to score 2 55% of the time
agreed. Xp fgs have been historically easy. By moving both to the 1 yd line it's an easy move and not such a drastic change. I think we would probably see more 2pt tries but not enough to change the game to where fgs are a thing of the past
 
Move the extra point from the 2 to the 1. It's dumb to have the same play possibly start from 2 different locations. If you want the extra point to mean something, give them an incentive to score 2 55% of the time
agreed. Xp fgs have been historically easy. By moving both to the 1 yd line it's an easy move and not such a drastic change. I think we would probably see more 2pt tries but not enough to change the game to where fgs are a thing of the past
They had an analyst on Mike & Mike this morning saying that team exec are fearful of injury to their star QBs if they move the 2pt conversion to the 1 yd line. The theory is that QB's are more likely to sneak, jump over the pile, etc. and get creamed. Plays from the 2yd line take this out of play.

 
Move the extra point from the 2 to the 1. It's dumb to have the same play possibly start from 2 different locations. If you want the extra point to mean something, give them an incentive to score 2 55% of the time
agreed. Xp fgs have been historically easy. By moving both to the 1 yd line it's an easy move and not such a drastic change. I think we would probably see more 2pt tries but not enough to change the game to where fgs are a thing of the past
They had an analyst on Mike & Mike this morning saying that team exec are fearful of injury to their star QBs if they move the 2pt conversion to the 1 yd line. The theory is that QB's are more likely to sneak, jump over the pile, etc. and get creamed. Plays from the 2yd line take this out of play.
Tim Tebow's potential NFL career relies on this concept. Pull the regular QB and put in a gadget guy.

 
chad in Indy said:
ldizzle said:
Move the extra point from the 2 to the 1. It's dumb to have the same play possibly start from 2 different locations. If you want the extra point to mean something, give them an incentive to score 2 55% of the time
agreed. Xp fgs have been historically easy. By moving both to the 1 yd line it's an easy move and not such a drastic change. I think we would probably see more 2pt tries but not enough to change the game to where fgs are a thing of the past
They had an analyst on Mike & Mike this morning saying that team exec are fearful of injury to their star QBs if they move the 2pt conversion to the 1 yd line. The theory is that QB's are more likely to sneak, jump over the pile, etc. and get creamed. Plays from the 2yd line take this out of play.
I'm not sure I can ever recall a play where a QB got hurt sneaking it from the one yard line.

These guys get hurt in the pocket or running in the open field.

 
You score to go up 1 with 1 minute left. Do you try for 2 points to get a 3 point lead knowing if they get an INT or a fumble return for 2 pts you lose the game ?

 
You score to go up 1 with 1 minute left. Do you try for 2 points to get a 3 point lead knowing if they get an INT or a fumble return for 2 pts you lose the game ?
They have the two point return rule in college, and I remember less than a handful of times the defense ever scored 2 points on an extra point attempt. I would guess it might happen once a year in the NFL, maybe two.

I haven't seen the rule fully spelled out, but I think there would be a higher chance of a XP kick getting blocked and returned by the defense. Can defenses return blocked XP kicks and still get the 2 points? Also, could the offense mess with the defense and line up for a kicked XP at the 15 yard line but then try to go for 2 points?

 
MattFancy said:
spider321 said:
Does anyone really care they kickers hardly ever miss XPs?

Are they going to miss any more of them now because they're kicking from the 15 instead of the 2?
Yes and yes.
Really? I can't say I've ever watched an NFL game and thought to myself, "I wish the league would push back the XPs because it's just too easy".

Ok and so they go from having a 99% chance at making to a 95% chance of making them. Big deal.
It's a 33 yard field goal. Do kickers really kick 95% from 33 yards?

 
wonder what vegas feels about this, will the lins adjust from the standard 3 point/7point spreads?

Also when I get ####ty numbers like 5 or 2 or 9 in the super squares things, maybe they will be hitting now

 
This could mean a lot more two point conversions, at least on some teams. That would wreak havoc on the fantasy kicker position, and be a nice boost for some QBs and goal-line RBs.

Bump Cam. Sell Gostkowski.

 
This could mean a lot more two point conversions, at least on some teams. That would wreak havoc on the fantasy kicker position, and be a nice boost for some QBs and goal-line RBs.

Bump Cam. Sell Gostkowski.
Why sell Gostkowski? He still will score just as many points. If other teams opt to go for two more (which is still debatable), then kickers from those teams would score fewer fantasy points.

Since you brought up Gostkowski, he made 450 of 451 regular season XP attempts in his career (99.78%). And he's made 87 of 97 FG attempts from 30-39 yards (89.69%).

Will teams op to go for two more if they start missing XP 10% of the time? Guess we will find out.

 
This could mean a lot more two point conversions, at least on some teams. That would wreak havoc on the fantasy kicker position, and be a nice boost for some QBs and goal-line RBs.

Bump Cam. Sell Gostkowski.
Why sell Gostkowski? He still will score just as many points. If other teams opt to go for two more (which is still debatable), then kickers from those teams would score fewer fantasy points.

Since you brought up Gostkowski, he made 450 of 451 regular season XP attempts in his career (99.78%). And he's made 87 of 97 FG attempts from 30-39 yards (89.69%).

Will teams op to go for two more if they start missing XP 10% of the time? Guess we will find out.
My guess is that Belichick, Kelly, and Riverboat Ron are especially likely to run more two point conversions.

 
For fantasy this is actually interesting. If some coaches have success going for 2 a lot, we could see a 2 pt specialist emerge. A guy gets 3 2pt conversions a game and its the same as if he rushed for 60 yards in most leagues. Deeper leagues this opens some options.

 
MattFancy said:
spider321 said:
Does anyone really care they kickers hardly ever miss XPs?

Are they going to miss any more of them now because they're kicking from the 15 instead of the 2?
Yes and yes.
Really? I can't say I've ever watched an NFL game and thought to myself, "I wish the league would push back the XPs because it's just too easy".

Ok and so they go from having a 99% chance at making to a 95% chance of making them. Big deal.
It's a 33 yard field goal. Do kickers really kick 95% from 33 yards?
It seems to drop from 99% at the current range down to 93% at the new range.

See http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/5/19/8606641/nfl-rule-changes-extra-point-2-point-conversion-approved

 
I believe with this change, the 2 pt conversion would give a clear boost to net points over a game and/or a season. Teams that are actually good at it should do it after every score. It may actually be worth it for almost all teams. It really could be a significant fantasy impact for goal-line backs. It really wouldn't be crazy to see 4 or 5 two point conversions in a game for a good goal line back on a good team, plus whatever else he might do.

 
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For those of you that don't want a game decided on making an extra point then why even have the attempt at all. The whole point in attempting an extra point is the fact that it is an opportunity to get an extra point and not a guarantee. It's gotten to the point where it's almost guaranteed, so what's the point? Either make it more challenging or get rid of it. The fear of missing it is the only way to make it more interesting. It's also a better way to separate great kickers from average kickers.

 
MattFancy said:
spider321 said:
Does anyone really care they kickers hardly ever miss XPs?

Are they going to miss any more of them now because they're kicking from the 15 instead of the 2?
Yes and yes.
Really? I can't say I've ever watched an NFL game and thought to myself, "I wish the league would push back the XPs because it's just too easy".

Ok and so they go from having a 99% chance at making to a 95% chance of making them. Big deal.
I believe with this change, the 2 pt conversion would give a clear boost to net points over a game and/or a season. Teams that are actually good at it should do it after every score. It may actually be worth it for almost all teams. It really could be a significant fantasy impact for goal-line backs. It really wouldn't be crazy to see 4 or 5 two point conversions in a game for a good goal line back on a good team, plus whatever else he might do.
Plus your worthless Super Bowl squares will look much better..

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.

 
Games will be longer now as well.

In terms of FF, kickers were sort of hanging on as a fun piece of the game but the influence of the K probably has gotten even a little bit slimmer. The value of certain RBs and QBs has probably gone up.

 
What happens if team lines up at the 15 and throws or runs for a score? Is that a 2 pointer?

If the team is at the 2 and somehow drop kicks the ball through, is that an XP? (Just go with it).

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?

 
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At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?
According to an article from SB Nation yesterday, the success rate on 2-point attempts last year was 47.5%.

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?
According to an article from SB Nation yesterday, the success rate on 2-point attempts last year was 47.5%.
again, IMO, this means teams will still go for 1, unless the score dictates.

however the 7 percent dip in percentage will mean more missed extra points, thus possibly effecting the score, meaning, more 2 pointers later in games, because of missed extra points.

Also I like the possibility of the defense scoring on the play. and as someone alluded to earlier, maybe taking a knee instead of risking the 2 point return. Crazy

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?
According to an article from SB Nation yesterday, the success rate on 2-point attempts last year was 47.5%.
again, IMO, this means teams will still go for 1, unless the score dictates.

however the 7 percent dip in percentage will mean more missed extra points, thus possibly effecting the score, meaning, more 2 pointers later in games, because of missed extra points.

Also I like the possibility of the defense scoring on the play. and as someone alluded to earlier, maybe taking a knee instead of risking the 2 point return. Crazy
Assuming those numbers are right, you are looking at

For 2 pt conversion

47.5% x 2 = .95 pts per attempt

For PAT

93% x 1 = .93 pts per attempt

Why would you give up points on average?

And for teams who are GOOD at getting 2 yards when they need them, the percentages go up. The Bears have converted 10 of 11 two point conversion over the past two years. Steelers were 5 of 6. Vikings 4 of 5. Bills 4 for 4. Why on Earth would they do a PAT if it isn't 99% anymore?

And none of that factors in teams actually planning for the new rule and putting a little extra emphasis on two point conversion practice.

I think this could be way bigger than the attention it is getting right now.

 
Armanti Edwards might find work again. Short of these former running college QBs...the most impressive regularly used gadget plays I can recall were the wildcat and kordell Stewart.

I wonder about all the converted former quarterbacks in the league. Many NFL players even played qb in high school. Do they have a little more value now?

Pacman, Deion and the corners that have played wr offer a simple wrinkle for the coaches that might not want to be too creative but want something to keep the D on their toes.

I wonder about the TEs and FBs that are very good on special teams. Will they play D for two pointers?

Over the years, we've heard stories how this non-starter was dangerous enough that teams had to waste some time preparing for him in practice just in case. It'll be interesting how coaches handle this with their practice time and the importance of it.

 
What happens if team lines up at the 15 and throws or runs for a score? Is that a 2 pointer?

If the team is at the 2 and somehow drop kicks the ball through, is that an XP? (Just go with it).
What if the team lines up to go for 2 but then has a penalty for a false start? Could they change their mind and kick the PAT from the 15?
 
What happens if team lines up at the 15 and throws or runs for a score? Is that a 2 pointer?

If the team is at the 2 and somehow drop kicks the ball through, is that an XP? (Just go with it).
What if the team lines up to go for 2 but then has a penalty for a false start? Could they change their mind and kick the PAT from the 15?
Or does that mean they can change their mind and kick the XP from the 7?

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?
According to an article from SB Nation yesterday, the success rate on 2-point attempts last year was 47.5%.
again, IMO, this means teams will still go for 1, unless the score dictates.

however the 7 percent dip in percentage will mean more missed extra points, thus possibly effecting the score, meaning, more 2 pointers later in games, because of missed extra points.

Also I like the possibility of the defense scoring on the play. and as someone alluded to earlier, maybe taking a knee instead of risking the 2 point return. Crazy
Assuming those numbers are right, you are looking at

For 2 pt conversion

47.5% x 2 = .95 pts per attempt

For PAT

93% x 1 = .93 pts per attempt

Why would you give up points on average?

And for teams who are GOOD at getting 2 yards when they need them, the percentages go up. The Bears have converted 10 of 11 two point conversion over the past two years. Steelers were 5 of 6. Vikings 4 of 5. Bills 4 for 4. Why on Earth would they do a PAT if it isn't 99% anymore?

And none of that factors in teams actually planning for the new rule and putting a little extra emphasis on two point conversion practice.

I think this could be way bigger than the attention it is getting right now.
you're not taking into account that kickers will get better and better from 33 out as they'll practice it constantly.

and teams will scout 2 point conversions the more opponents do it.

 
At least one team is going to decide to go for 2 every time. That doesn't necessarily make it a good rule, but it does make it interesting.
I doubt it

a 33 yard FG is still a 93% success rate.

I predict they still go for 2 only when the score dictates. isn't the 2point percentage less than 50%? or there abouts?
According to an article from SB Nation yesterday, the success rate on 2-point attempts last year was 47.5%.
again, IMO, this means teams will still go for 1, unless the score dictates.

however the 7 percent dip in percentage will mean more missed extra points, thus possibly effecting the score, meaning, more 2 pointers later in games, because of missed extra points.

Also I like the possibility of the defense scoring on the play. and as someone alluded to earlier, maybe taking a knee instead of risking the 2 point return. Crazy
Assuming those numbers are right, you are looking at

For 2 pt conversion

47.5% x 2 = .95 pts per attempt

For PAT

93% x 1 = .93 pts per attempt

Why would you give up points on average?

And for teams who are GOOD at getting 2 yards when they need them, the percentages go up. The Bears have converted 10 of 11 two point conversion over the past two years. Steelers were 5 of 6. Vikings 4 of 5. Bills 4 for 4. Why on Earth would they do a PAT if it isn't 99% anymore?

And none of that factors in teams actually planning for the new rule and putting a little extra emphasis on two point conversion practice.

I think this could be way bigger than the attention it is getting right now.
you're not taking into account that kickers will get better and better from 33 out as they'll practice it constantly.

and teams will scout 2 point conversions the more opponents do it.
Well that and if you just look at FG% right now from 33yds out, that doesn't mean every ball is placed right down the middle either.

During the past two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus, NFL place-kickers converted 97.6 percent of all kicks between 30-35 yards when lined up in the middle of the field.

To put those figures in context, let’s plug them into the 2014 season. At 97.6 percent accuracy, we would have seen 1,200 of 1,230 extra points converted. Instead of eight misses, there would have been 30.
 
Assuming those numbers are right, you are looking at


For 2 pt conversion

47.5% x 2 = .95 pts per attempt

For PAT

93% x 1 = .93 pts per attempt

Why would you give up points on average?
Teams don't get anything extra by maximizing their total points over the long run. Points only matter within an individual game. Even the best teams average under 4 TDs/game. While .95 will eventually become meaningful against .93 over the long run, it means very little when we're talking about one game and about 3 or 4 TDs. And it really only offers a big advantage over a REALLY LONG RUN. We're talking a 2 point advantage every 100 TDs, which is about 2 points every two seasons for the very few teams that can even hit 50 TDs in a season.

Now, there are probably individual games that it might make sense to gameplan for 2 points every time. But, as a general full-season philosophy? I'm not seeing it.

 
MattFancy said:
During the past two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus, NFL place-kickers converted 97.6 percent of all kicks between 30-35 yards when lined up in the middle of the field.

To put those figures in context, let’s plug them into the 2014 season. At 97.6 percent accuracy, we would have seen 1,200 of 1,230 extra points converted. Instead of eight misses, there would have been 30.
So basically this is a meaningless rule change.

 
MattFancy said:
During the past two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus, NFL place-kickers converted 97.6 percent of all kicks between 30-35 yards when lined up in the middle of the field.

To put those figures in context, let’s plug them into the 2014 season. At 97.6 percent accuracy, we would have seen 1,200 of 1,230 extra points converted. Instead of eight misses, there would have been 30.
So basically this is a meaningless rule change.
Until the kickers start making these all the time, then the league will push them back even further.

 
dgreen said:
Holy Schneikes said:
Assuming those numbers are right, you are looking at


For 2 pt conversion

47.5% x 2 = .95 pts per attempt

For PAT

93% x 1 = .93 pts per attempt

Why would you give up points on average?
Teams don't get anything extra by maximizing their total points over the long run. Points only matter within an individual game. Even the best teams average under 4 TDs/game. While .95 will eventually become meaningful against .93 over the long run, it means very little when we're talking about one game and about 3 or 4 TDs. And it really only offers a big advantage over a REALLY LONG RUN. We're talking a 2 point advantage every 100 TDs, which is about 2 points every two seasons for the very few teams that can even hit 50 TDs in a season.

Now, there are probably individual games that it might make sense to gameplan for 2 points every time. But, as a general full-season philosophy? I'm not seeing it.
If going for 2 is an advantage over going for 1, however slight, what logic is there to go for 1 in a typical game situation? You just scored, you're up 6-0; why would you not go for 2? And if you were down 8-0 and scored, of course 2 would make more sense. Even if you're down 14-0.

Now, if it's tied after your TD, there's a logic to getting a near-sure 1 over a half-sure 2, but in the average scoring situation you should take every advantage you can.

 

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