Updated PPR Dynasty Rankings for 10/12/2011 (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

Nice list, only issue is Calvin is top property in dynasty period the end.

I agree. Calvin is 1 and it's not close. Good list though.

It's not close, but it's not Calvin. Last year, the #1 RB provided double the VORP of the #1 WR in PPR formats. Double.Calvin is a beast. But guys like McCoy, Foster, and DMC all have more value in PPR formats that Calvin.

Elite WR tend to be elite for several years. Calvin could easily be the #1 WR for the next decade. RBs come and go. Give me Calvin over anyone in a dynasty league too.

It doesn't matter that Calvin could last longer than McCoy; you don't compare WRs to RBs. Calvin would have to last longer than the baseline WR than McCoy compared to the baseline RB. When you study that, you will see that McCoy has more value when it comes to staying power and duration of productivity.

This would be the case if McCoy and Calvin both had the same probability of repeating their production year after year. I don't believe this is the case at all, and give a big edge to Calvin in this category (which is also supported by the numbers).

You are again comparing WRs to RBs. It is about value over replacement.I won't get too much into it, there was a thread and even a league created due to this argument.Because RBs have so much turnover, the young, elite level RBs that project to start for even 5 years, get a major boost in value over a 26 WR projected to start for 8. Most 26 YO WR will produce for 8 years, so what value does it add? Not as much as a RB that gives you 5 years of an advantage at the RB1 spot.

The problem with strict VORP or VBD analysis is that you're always looking at the "replacement players" or "baseline players" after the fact - meaning it boils down to a "perfect world" analysis. The #32 ranked WR (or replacement WR) probably changes from year to year and is unpredictable. Calvin's top end production does not and is not.

 

[jonboltz]

IMHO, you continue to be WAY LOW on a lot of veteran producing RBs (Willis, Sproles, Lynch, Torain). While this is a dynasty league and the future is important, it is NOT more important than winning this year. When an injury or bye week comes, I'd much rather trot out one of those 4 RBs than Carter, Helu, or Hunter.

While that may be true, you should always have enough depth anyway. Would you seriously consider trading Carter, Hunter or Helu for one of those veterans. I can only see Sproles being worth it since those other guys are just stop gap options for their NFL teams and should only be looked at that way for your dynasty roster as well.

In most startup dynasties over the offseason, Lynch was going before all 3 of those rookies. I would without a doubt rather have Lynch currently than those three. Sproles isn't even a contest, and Willis I would also insta-accept for either of the three. I'm not sure what to make of the Redskins and Torain...but if I had to choose between Torain and Helu, I'll take the guy that has shown some ability to be a feature back and is currently starting.

So are a few mediocre to good games from Willis McGahee or Marshawn Lynch worth a potential long term starting RB? If you have to rely on those veterans you're probably in some trouble anyway.

First, I think you are being disingenuous when you say "a few mediocre to good games". In a traditional 12-team league, Willis is an every-week starter for 80% of fantasty teams. Despite having an awful schedule and few games to start the year, Lynch is a top 25 RB in scoring in my PPR league. While fantasy owner perceptions will often lie, the numbers don't -- Willis and Lynch will/should likely be in owners starting lineups fairly often, especially considering bye weeks, injuries, and matchups.I'm not willing to give up the points lossed by starting some teams backup, and risk dropping a game that could keep me out of the playoffs.

No way do i take Lynch (mediocre at best) over a young guy like Hunter who is extremely talented and has a shot to make an impact the next two years.

I bolded a section that I have previously written to highlight my point in this reply.Lynch, a 25-yr old with two 1000 yard seasons and currently undesputed starter for his team is merely "mediocre at best". Hunter, who fell to the 5th round, and all of 29 NFL carries is "extremely talented".

This is merely the "new shiny toy syndrome". While there is always a chance that a diamond in the rough becomes a star, it is much more likely that Hunter is the next Glen Coffee, Thomas Clayton, or Anthony Dixon. So while you wait for Gore to get a career ending injury, and then hope that the 49ers don't bring in or draft another RB (p.s. They would), I'd just go along and plug Lynch or Willis or whoever "mediocre at best" RB is currently putting up RB2-3 numbers and giving my team a better chance to actually win games.

 

[Concept Coop]

Nice list, only issue is Calvin is top property in dynasty period the end.

I agree. Calvin is 1 and it's not close. Good list though.

It's not close, but it's not Calvin. Last year, the #1 RB provided double the VORP of the #1 WR in PPR formats. Double.Calvin is a beast. But guys like McCoy, Foster, and DMC all have more value in PPR formats that Calvin.

Elite WR tend to be elite for several years. Calvin could easily be the #1 WR for the next decade. RBs come and go. Give me Calvin over anyone in a dynasty league too.

It doesn't matter that Calvin could last longer than McCoy; you don't compare WRs to RBs. Calvin would have to last longer than the baseline WR than McCoy compared to the baseline RB. When you study that, you will see that McCoy has more value when it comes to staying power and duration of productivity.

This would be the case if McCoy and Calvin both had the same probability of repeating their production year after year. I don't believe this is the case at all, and give a big edge to Calvin in this category (which is also supported by the numbers).

You are again comparing WRs to RBs. It is about value over replacement.I won't get too much into it, there was a thread and even a league created due to this argument.Because RBs have so much turnover, the young, elite level RBs that project to start for even 5 years, get a major boost in value over a 26 WR projected to start for 8. Most 26 YO WR will produce for 8 years, so what value does it add? Not as much as a RB that gives you 5 years of an advantage at the RB1 spot.

The problem with strict VORP or VBD analysis is that you're always looking at the "replacement players" or "baseline players" after the fact - meaning it boils down to a "perfect world" analysis. The #32 ranked WR (or replacement WR) probably changes from year to year and is unpredictable. Calvin's top end production does not and is not.

Calvin's top end production should be compared to the Miles Austins and Brandon Marshalls, whose production is closer to Calvin's than McCoy's will be to Ahmad Bradshaws and Jahvid Bests. You are right that VORP or VBD is not perfect. It actually benefits WR, however. Because the WR32 is much more likely to repeat that RB32 - guys like Torain, Starks, Whitehead, Tate whose roles change and carries come and go.So sure, Calvins production is safer to project than McCoys or McFaddens. But, compared to their positions, McCoy and McFadden offer more VORP.

 

[jonboltz]

Nice list, only issue is Calvin is top property in dynasty period the end.

I agree. Calvin is 1 and it's not close. Good list though.

It's not close, but it's not Calvin. Last year, the #1 RB provided double the VORP of the #1 WR in PPR formats. Double.Calvin is a beast. But guys like McCoy, Foster, and DMC all have more value in PPR formats that Calvin.

Elite WR tend to be elite for several years. Calvin could easily be the #1 WR for the next decade. RBs come and go. Give me Calvin over anyone in a dynasty league too.

It doesn't matter that Calvin could last longer than McCoy; you don't compare WRs to RBs. Calvin would have to last longer than the baseline WR than McCoy compared to the baseline RB. When you study that, you will see that McCoy has more value when it comes to staying power and duration of productivity.

This would be the case if McCoy and Calvin both had the same probability of repeating their production year after year. I don't believe this is the case at all, and give a big edge to Calvin in this category (which is also supported by the numbers).

You are again comparing WRs to RBs. It is about value over replacement.I won't get too much into it, there was a thread and even a league created due to this argument.Because RBs have so much turnover, the young, elite level RBs that project to start for even 5 years, get a major boost in value over a 26 WR projected to start for 8. Most 26 YO WR will produce for 8 years, so what value does it add? Not as much as a RB that gives you 5 years of an advantage at the RB1 spot.

Yes, I've read and participated in many of these threads and have seen you argue this side before. I think you are wrong then, and I think you are wrong now. The dispute I have is predicting elite level RBs year-to-year. Waldmann has provided a lot of analysis about how often top-10 RBs change from year to year. If I knew that McCoy would be top 10 for even 4 years, I would have him higher than Calvin. However, there are very few RBs and currently none in the NFL that I would project to be top 10 fantasy RB over the next 4 years (though a few years back ADP would have made the list).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMHO, you continue to be WAY LOW on a lot of veteran producing RBs (Willis, Sproles, Lynch, Torain). While this is a dynasty league and the future is important, it is NOT more important than winning this year. When an injury or bye week comes, I'd much rather trot out one of those 4 RBs than Carter, Helu, or Hunter.

While that may be true, you should always have enough depth anyway. Would you seriously consider trading Carter, Hunter or Helu for one of those veterans. I can only see Sproles being worth it since those other guys are just stop gap options for their NFL teams and should only be looked at that way for your dynasty roster as well.

In most startup dynasties over the offseason, Lynch was going before all 3 of those rookies. I would without a doubt rather have Lynch currently than those three. Sproles isn't even a contest, and Willis I would also insta-accept for either of the three. I'm not sure what to make of the Redskins and Torain...but if I had to choose between Torain and Helu, I'll take the guy that has shown some ability to be a feature back and is currently starting.

So are a few mediocre to good games from Willis McGahee or Marshawn Lynch worth a potential long term starting RB? If you have to rely on those veterans you're probably in some trouble anyway.

First, I think you are being disingenuous when you say "a few mediocre to good games". In a traditional 12-team league, Willis is an every-week starter for 80% of fantasty teams. Despite having an awful schedule and few games to start the year, Lynch is a top 25 RB in scoring in my PPR league. While fantasy owner perceptions will often lie, the numbers don't -- Willis and Lynch will/should likely be in owners starting lineups fairly often, especially considering bye weeks, injuries, and matchups.I'm not willing to give up the points lossed by starting some teams backup, and risk dropping a game that could keep me out of the playoffs.

No way do i take Lynch (mediocre at best) over a young guy like Hunter who is extremely talented and has a shot to make an impact the next two years.

I bolded a section that I have previously written to highlight my point in this reply.Lynch, a 25-yr old with two 1000 yard seasons and currently undesputed starter for his team is merely "mediocre at best". Hunter, who fell to the 5th round, and all of 29 NFL carries is "extremely talented".

This is merely the "new shiny toy syndrome". While there is always a chance that a diamond in the rough becomes a star, it is much more likely that Hunter is the next Glen Coffee, Thomas Clayton, or Anthony Dixon. So while you wait for Gore to get a career ending injury, and then hope that the 49ers don't bring in or draft another RB (p.s. They would), I'd just go along and plug Lynch or Willis or whoever "mediocre at best" RB is currently putting up RB2-3 numbers and giving my team a better chance to actually win games.

This I can agree with and it happens quite often. Lynch was a top 15 pick so there is obviously talent there. As an AFC East follower though I will say even during those 1,000 yard seasons which seem so far away now, Lynch never really looked all that good while doing it (but his o-line certainly didn't help). He was more of a grinder who fell ahead for 2-4 yards. Fed Jackson always seemed like the more explosive talent and did more under similiar conditions, but was kept in check on the depth chart because Lynch was a first round pick.That said, he is young and an undisputed starter right now so that automatically gives him some value. Perhaps I am under-valuing him - but I do think he's very repalceable and Seattle can easily do so by next season.

 

[SayWhat?]

I just have to say that anyone still claiming that Marshawn Lynch is a valuable dynasty asset simply couldn't have watched him play at any point in the past few years. The guy is less than pedestrian, and that includes his one highlight run in the playoffs where the Saints played touch football with him. He's just not very good.

 

[jonboltz]

If I was a contender without solid RB depth I would make a trade for him, but in most of my leagues I have enough depth at the position so I'd rather stash a Kendall Hunter type than McGahee. I think the poster above said it well when he said you should look at the top 100 as starters and rank them accordingly and the second 100 as bench players and rank them accordingly.

Certainly if you are one of the teams with 3 top 25 RBs already, you wouldn't need Lynch/Willis to start for you and would be taking flyers on younger guys. I guess also if your team just isn't very good, their value is lower. On average, most teams don't already have 3 top 25 RBs on their team. Case in point, I'm 3rd in my PPR dynasty right now and Lynch is my RB3 (Wells, Sproles, Lynch, DeAngelo, Addai). Lynch vs any of those younger guys is clearly a loss for me. I don't need him to start every week, but he will certainly get a look for the Rams x2, Eagles, and possibly Cleveland. These are valuable games that I want to win, rather than having a pretty-looking roster of rookies.

 

[jonboltz]

I just have to say that anyone still claiming that Marshawn Lynch is a valuable dynasty asset simply couldn't have watched him play at any point in the past few years. The guy is less than pedestrian, and that includes his one highlight run in the playoffs where the Saints played touch football with him. He's just not very good.

Depends how you want to define "valuable" here. He is certainly valuable for an owner that can/will pick the weeks to start him based on various injuries and bye weeks that occur over the course of the season. Additionally, no leagues that I know of deduct points based on how the player "looks", so while he continues to be a matchup dependent starting RB, I'll continue to use him as such to try to win games.

 

[Concept Coop]

Nice list, only issue is Calvin is top property in dynasty period the end.

I agree. Calvin is 1 and it's not close. Good list though.

It's not close, but it's not Calvin. Last year, the #1 RB provided double the VORP of the #1 WR in PPR formats. Double.Calvin is a beast. But guys like McCoy, Foster, and DMC all have more value in PPR formats that Calvin.

Elite WR tend to be elite for several years. Calvin could easily be the #1 WR for the next decade. RBs come and go. Give me Calvin over anyone in a dynasty league too.

It doesn't matter that Calvin could last longer than McCoy; you don't compare WRs to RBs. Calvin would have to last longer than the baseline WR than McCoy compared to the baseline RB. When you study that, you will see that McCoy has more value when it comes to staying power and duration of productivity.

This would be the case if McCoy and Calvin both had the same probability of repeating their production year after year. I don't believe this is the case at all, and give a big edge to Calvin in this category (which is also supported by the numbers).

You are again comparing WRs to RBs. It is about value over replacement.I won't get too much into it, there was a thread and even a league created due to this argument.Because RBs have so much turnover, the young, elite level RBs that project to start for even 5 years, get a major boost in value over a 26 WR projected to start for 8. Most 26 YO WR will produce for 8 years, so what value does it add? Not as much as a RB that gives you 5 years of an advantage at the RB1 spot.

Yes, I've read and participated in many of these threads and have seen you argue this side before. I think you are wrong then, and I think you are wrong now. The dispute I have is predicting elite level RBs year-to-year. Waldmann has provided a lot of analysis about how often top-10 RBs change from year to year. If I knew that McCoy would be top 10 for even 4 years, I would have him higher than Calvin. However, there are very few RBs and currently none in the NFL that I would project to be top 10 fantasy RB over the next 4 years (though a few years back ADP would have made the list).

McCoy and McFadden are 23 and 24 years old and, in my eyes at least, are very clearly elite talents. I feel very comfortable projecting them to have 4 top 10 seasons. Because I do, you actually agree with me, and would also value them more than Calvin if you felt comfortable doing the same, per your own words. So you don't think I am wrong. You just won't project 4 top years out of 23 and 24 year old RBs. As for Waldman - his dynasty rankings have never been valid in any league style I play in . Maybe a start 2 QB or superflex. Otherwise, I have no use for them, or upside down drafting in dynasty leagues. And, in his defense, he doesn't suggest the upside down draft with the first pick.

 

[jonboltz]

Nice list, only issue is Calvin is top property in dynasty period the end.

I agree. Calvin is 1 and it's not close. Good list though.

It's not close, but it's not Calvin. Last year, the #1 RB provided double the VORP of the #1 WR in PPR formats. Double.Calvin is a beast. But guys like McCoy, Foster, and DMC all have more value in PPR formats that Calvin.

Elite WR tend to be elite for several years. Calvin could easily be the #1 WR for the next decade. RBs come and go. Give me Calvin over anyone in a dynasty league too.

It doesn't matter that Calvin could last longer than McCoy; you don't compare WRs to RBs. Calvin would have to last longer than the baseline WR than McCoy compared to the baseline RB. When you study that, you will see that McCoy has more value when it comes to staying power and duration of productivity.

This would be the case if McCoy and Calvin both had the same probability of repeating their production year after year. I don't believe this is the case at all, and give a big edge to Calvin in this category (which is also supported by the numbers).

You are again comparing WRs to RBs. It is about value over replacement.I won't get too much into it, there was a thread and even a league created due to this argument.Because RBs have so much turnover, the young, elite level RBs that project to start for even 5 years, get a major boost in value over a 26 WR projected to start for 8. Most 26 YO WR will produce for 8 years, so what value does it add? Not as much as a RB that gives you 5 years of an advantage at the RB1 spot.

Yes, I've read and participated in many of these threads and have seen you argue this side before. I think you are wrong then, and I think you are wrong now. The dispute I have is predicting elite level RBs year-to-year. Waldmann has provided a lot of analysis about how often top-10 RBs change from year to year. If I knew that McCoy would be top 10 for even 4 years, I would have him higher than Calvin. However, there are very few RBs and currently none in the NFL that I would project to be top 10 fantasy RB over the next 4 years (though a few years back ADP would have made the list).

McCoy and McFadden are 23 and 24 years old and, in my eyes at least, are very clearly elite talents. I feel very comfortable projecting them to have 4 top 10 seasons. Because I do, you actually agree with me, and would also value them more than Calvin if you felt comfortable doing the same, per your own words. So you don't think I am wrong. You just won't project 4 top years out of 23 and 24 year old RBs. As for Waldman - his dynasty rankings have never been valid in any league style I play in . Maybe a start 2 QB or superflex. Otherwise, I have no use for them, or upside down drafting in dynasty leagues. And, in his defense, he doesn't suggest the upside down draft with the first pick.

Yes, I have said that I would certainly rank any RBs that I am confident would be a top-10 RB for four years higher than whoever WR I had as WR1. I certainly felt that way about ADP and LT in the past. McCoy and McFadden might end up pulling it off, but I'm not going to be the owner that bets on that. McCoy could very well replicate Ahmad Green, but I think it is just as easy that his career becomes like Deuce McAllister, Larry Johnson, or Stephen Jackson.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Calvin's top end production should be compared to the Miles Austins and Brandon Marshalls, whose production is closer to Calvin's than McCoy's will be to Ahmad Bradshaws and Jahvid Bests.

Of course 2011 stats don't back up this conjecture at all.

McCoy and McFadden are 23 and 24 years old and, in my eyes at least, are very clearly elite talents. I feel very comfortable projecting them to have 4 top 10 seasons.

Year to year I expect Calvin's PPG advantage to be the same or higher, and that VORP should remain constant for 7 or 8 years while McCoy's starts declining in 3 years (at maximum - see Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson).Calvin's really the outlier here. If you want to talk about Fitzgerald, Wallace, Nicks, Green, and Welker, there are flaws in their situation that breakdown that argument.

 

[Concept Coop]

Calvin's top end production should be compared to the Miles Austins and Brandon Marshalls, whose production is closer to Calvin's than McCoy's will be to Ahmad Bradshaws and Jahvid Bests.

Of course 2011 stats don't back up this conjecture at all.

McCoy and McFadden are 23 and 24 years old and, in my eyes at least, are very clearly elite talents. I feel very comfortable projecting them to have 4 top 10 seasons.

Year to year I expect Calvin's PPG advantage to be the same or higher, and that VORP should remain constant for 7 or 8 years while McCoy's starts declining in 3 years (at maximum - see Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson).Calvin's really the outlier here. If you want to talk about Fitzgerald, Wallace, Nicks, Green, and Welker, there are flaws in their situation that breakdown that argument.

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that. If you want to talk about consistancy, TEs offer the most and have longer careers than WR, QBs do too. Hell, defenses last forever. It is about longevity and consistancy compared to REPLACEMENT. You can do that math and come up with your own numbers. Mine back up what I see in my league: Draft WR early, over elite RBs, and you have to get very lucky not to be average. Draft RB early and you will compete at the WR spot with guys like Austin, Bowe, and even Santana Moss, and will pummel the LeGarrett Blounts, CJ Spillers, and Steven Jacksons. That advantage is magnified when those RBs end up in time shares because they are not elite talents or are old.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

 

[thriftyrocker]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that. If you want to talk about consistancy, TEs offer the most and have longer careers than WR, QBs do too. Hell, defenses last forever.

Calvin offers a 9 or 10 ppg average over Marshall and Steve Johnson. He offers a higher chance at being both relevant and elite in 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years than players of that caliber. McCoy offers a 1 ppg average over Wells, 2 over Mathews, 5 over Best, 7 over Bradshaw. Calvin offers a 5 ppg advantage over pretty much anything you can throw out there, whereas it's possible waiver pickups like Jackie Battle or Ryan Torain could be competitive with McCoy ROY.

Draft RB early and you will compete at the WR spot with guys like Austin, Bowe, and even Santana Moss, and will get pummeled by the LeGarrett Blounts, CJ Spillers, and Steven Jacksons Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jacksons. That advantage is magnified when those RBs end up in time shares because they are not elite talents or are old.

I fixed this for you. You can cherry pick names in either direction. Time share risk for RBs is a poor argument IMO. It's like a Foster owner worrying about Tate. Manningham was viewed as a top 20 WR going into the year and is losing out on a timeshare. Jacoby Ford was viewed as a top 30 WR going into the year and is losing out on a timeshare. MSW was viewed as a top 40 WR after he got signed to STL and is losing out on a timeshare. Better players get more touches, and we are not talking starters in name only like Lynch and Hightower.

 

[Concept Coop]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

 

[Concept Coop]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that. If you want to talk about consistancy, TEs offer the most and have longer careers than WR, QBs do too. Hell, defenses last forever.

Calvin offers a 9 or 10 ppg average over Marshall and Steve Johnson. He offers a higher chance at being both relevant and elite in 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years than players of that caliber. McCoy offers a 1 ppg average over Wells, 2 over Mathews, 5 over Best, 7 over Bradshaw. Calvin offers a 5 ppg advantage over pretty much anything you can throw out there, whereas it's possible waiver pickups like Jackie Battle or Ryan Torain could be competitive with McCoy ROY.

Draft RB early and you will compete at the WR spot with guys like Austin, Bowe, and even Santana Moss, and will get pummeled by the LeGarrett Blounts, CJ Spillers, and Steven Jacksons Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jacksons. That advantage is magnified when those RBs end up in time shares because they are not elite talents or are old.

I fixed this for you. You can cherry pick names in either direction. Time share risk for RBs is a poor argument IMO. It's like a Foster owner worrying about Tate. Manningham was viewed as a top 20 WR going into the year and is losing out on a timeshare. Jacoby Ford was viewed as a top 30 WR going into the year and is losing out on a timeshare. MSW was viewed as a top 40 WR after he got signed to STL and is losing out on a timeshare. Better players get more touches, and we are not talking starters in name only like Lynch and Hightower.

You are projecting Cavlin's (on pace for) historic season to extend for his career. That is silly. Miles Austin as been the most productive WR in football, when healhty, and playing with a healthy Romo. Let's us him. I take McCoy in the first and Austin in the 2nd. What 2nd round RB can you tandem with Calvin to compete with McCoy and Austin?

The gap gets even bigger the further down we go. Lets compare 4th round RBs with 4th round WRs - no contest. In the 4th you are drafting guys like Johnson, Welker, Rice, Colston, who - at the very least - are safe projections to get the targets needed to produce week in and week out. The RBs you draft in the 4th are nowhere close to locks to get the lion's share of the carries, unless they are on the verge of breaking down.

 

[Concept Coop]

For the record, if I projected Calvin to continue this pace, he would be the #1. I believe he is offering more VORP than McCoy and McFadden, although I haven't done that math. But, like Foster last year and CJ2K the year before (and Brady and Moss in 07) I don't think that is wise.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

LOL. Without sounding like a tool, I'm pretty sure I understand how to build a dynasty team. Why do I have to compare McCoy and a 2nd round WR to Calvin and a 2nd round RB? I would in a redraft league but in a dynasty league I am accumulating the best talent I can.I would probably draft Aaron Rodgers over McCoy in a dynasty too.

 

[Concept Coop]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

LOL. Without sounding like a tool, I'm pretty sure I understand how to build a dynasty team. Why do I have to compare McCoy and a 2nd round WR to Calvin and a 2nd round RB? I would in a redraft league but in a dynasty league I am accumulating the best talent I can.

Because value over replacement still applies. The 3 startups I have done this season, I am 13-2, own the points lead in 2, was voted the best draft in 2 (the only 2 with the poll (tied in 1)), and own either (or both) McCoy or McFadden in all of them. My #2 RBs are MJD, McFadden, and Adrian Peterson. I am pretty sure I know how to build a dynasty team too.

 

[Patoons]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that. If you want to talk about consistancy, TEs offer the most and have longer careers than WR, QBs do too. Hell, defenses last forever. It is about longevity and consistancy compared to REPLACEMENT. You can do that math and come up with your own numbers. Mine back up what I see in my league: Draft WR early, over elite RBs, and you have to get very lucky not to be average. Draft RB early and you will compete at the WR spot with guys like Austin, Bowe, and even Santana Moss, and will pummel the LeGarrett Blounts, CJ Spillers, and Steven Jacksons. That advantage is magnified when those RBs end up in time shares because they are not elite talents or are old.

I understand your point here on production, (especially in the short-term) though I'm not sure I agree that it makes the team with the most dynasty potential to be a long-term contender. With the turnover at the top, if you have a solid foundation of WRs, you can be sure that you'll have a shot at a RB who ends up top 10-15 almost each and every year. I use this is almost every draft I do and go WR heavy and do an upside down strategy of sorts. Some times it works (and works well), other times it doesn't and takes a longer time than expected. I don't necessary consider it getting luck with your RBs as opposed to playing the wire and going with best opportunity later in the draft.People have different strategies and I've certainly seen both work. I don't think there's a right or wrong way. I just prefer to go WR heavy given the potential on the wire year after year.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

LOL. Without sounding like a tool, I'm pretty sure I understand how to build a dynasty team. Why do I have to compare McCoy and a 2nd round WR to Calvin and a 2nd round RB? I would in a redraft league but in a dynasty league I am accumulating the best talent I can.

Because value over replacement still applies. The 3 startups I have done this season, I am 13-2, own the points lead in 2, was voted the best draft in 2 (the only 2 with the poll (tied in 1)), and own either (or both) McCoy or McFadden in all of them. My #2 RBs are MJD, McFadden, and Adrian Peterson. I am pretty sure I know how to build a dynasty team too.

LOL. Shall everyone in this thread post their dynasty accomplishments? You're judging yourself off 5 weeks in a new league. My dynasty leagues are all 3-7 years in. Steven Jackson is going to help me win this year more than Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram has a boatload more value than Jackson. You agree with that, right?Futhermore using your theory, I would take Calvin (rd1) and Mathews/Mendenhall (Rd2) over McCoy (Rd1) and Roddy White/Greg Jennings (Rd2). It's not even close.

 

[Concept Coop]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that. If you want to talk about consistancy, TEs offer the most and have longer careers than WR, QBs do too. Hell, defenses last forever. It is about longevity and consistancy compared to REPLACEMENT. You can do that math and come up with your own numbers. Mine back up what I see in my league: Draft WR early, over elite RBs, and you have to get very lucky not to be average. Draft RB early and you will compete at the WR spot with guys like Austin, Bowe, and even Santana Moss, and will pummel the LeGarrett Blounts, CJ Spillers, and Steven Jacksons. That advantage is magnified when those RBs end up in time shares because they are not elite talents or are old.

I understand your point here on production, (especially in the short-term) though I'm not sure I agree that it makes the team with the most dynasty potential to be a long-term contender. With the turnover at the top, if you have a solid foundation of WRs, you can be sure that you'll have a shot at a RB who ends up top 10-15 almost each and every year. I use this is almost every draft I do and go WR heavy and do an upside down strategy of sorts. Some times it works (and works well), other times it doesn't and takes a longer time than expected. I don't necessary consider it getting luck with your RBs as opposed to playing the wire and going with best opportunity later in the draft.People have different strategies and I've certainly seen both work. I don't think there's a right or wrong way. I just prefer to go WR heavy given the potential on the wire year after year.

I have seen both work too. There is certainly a case to be made for going WR/WR when drafting outside of the top 8-10 picks. But, when drafting in the top 3, I don't see any reason not to go young, stud RB. Calvin is the closest thing to an exception I can find, but with elite, young talent like McFadden, McCoy and Foster, I can't do it.As for "long term", I think Foster, McCoy, and McFadden have at least 4 seasons. So, for 4 seasons I have an advantage. I can still draft young WRs, QBs, and TEs and be in the mix 5 years from now.McCoyAustinBestMarshall/RiceHernandezRoethlisbergerFast forward 4 years and that team is still contending.

 

[Concept Coop]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

LOL. Without sounding like a tool, I'm pretty sure I understand how to build a dynasty team. Why do I have to compare McCoy and a 2nd round WR to Calvin and a 2nd round RB? I would in a redraft league but in a dynasty league I am accumulating the best talent I can.

Because value over replacement still applies. The 3 startups I have done this season, I am 13-2, own the points lead in 2, was voted the best draft in 2 (the only 2 with the poll (tied in 1)), and own either (or both) McCoy or McFadden in all of them. My #2 RBs are MJD, McFadden, and Adrian Peterson. I am pretty sure I know how to build a dynasty team too.

LOL. Shall everyone in this thread post their dynasty accomplishments? You're judging yourself off 5 weeks in a new league. My dynasty leagues are all 3-7 years in. Steven Jackson is going to help me win this year more than Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram has a boatload more value than Jackson. You agree with that, right?Futhermore using your theory, I would take Calvin (rd1) and Mathews/Mendenhall (Rd2) over McCoy (Rd1) and Roddy White/Greg Jennings (Rd2). It's not even close.

Of course I agree with that. Not sure what your point it. Welker is going to help me win this year more than Calvin; Brady more than Newton. Matthews is no longer a round 2 pick, in most formats.If you are taking Calvin at #1, you are picking last in the 2nd round. What RB there has the value of guys like Austin, Bowe, or even Marshall?

 

[thriftyrocker]

You are projecting Cavlin's (on pace for) historic season to extend for his career. That is silly. Miles Austin as been the most productive WR in football, when healhty, and playing with a healthy Romo. Let's us him. I take McCoy in the first and Austin in the 2nd. What 2nd round RB can you tandem with Calvin to compete with McCoy and Austin?

Austin is not the WR1 in Dallas going forward. Austin will not finish the year within 5 ppg of Calvin Johnson. Do you think Fred Jackson will finish within 5 ppg of McCoy?Calvin doesn't have to have 30 TDs every year to offer a healthy PPG advantage over the 2nd tier of WR. His TD production will still be elite and unrivaled by anyone other than possibly Britt, Nicks, and Green. If anything, his yards and receptions could come up from this year's pace. I am projected HOF numbers for him, but not current pace through 5 games.

The gap gets even bigger the further down we go. Lets compare 4th round RBs with 4th round WRs - no contest.

No it doesn't. The upside of RBs does not degrade as harshly as it does for WRs as you go down the draft. That is kind of the whole theory here. A 4th (or 7th or 10th or 13th) round RB has more chance to be very good than an equivalent round WR. ETA: A midround WR has more chance to be adequate or good.

The RBs you draft in the 4th are nowhere close to locks to get the lion's share of the carries, unless they are on the verge of breaking down.

Mathews was a 3rd in my startup and is 2 ppg behind McCoy. I would much rather have Calvin/Mathews. In the league I have that pair I would never trade it for McCoy and any other WR.I would agree the RBs are not "close to locks". They are gambles. Foster was a gamble last year. Wells was a gamble this year. RBs in the mid and late rounds are gambles and that's why they were taken late. That's why there's threads in August where people discuss what the best RBs for upside down are.

 

[Concept Coop]

Mathews was a 3rd in my startup and is 2 ppg behind McCoy. I would much rather have Calvin/Mathews. In the league I have that pair I would never trade it for McCoy and any other WR.

I would agree the RBs are not "close to locks". They are gambles. Foster was a gamble last year. Wells was a gamble this year. RBs in the mid and late rounds are gambles and that's why they were taken late. That's why there's threads in August where people discuss what the best RBs for upside down are.

I got Welker in the 5th...Newton in the 14th...

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

And again, you are comparing WRs to RBs - you can't do that.

What? We're discussing the overall #1 player. That could be a RB, WR, QB, or even a TE. How do you not compare across positions?Let me put it an easier way for you. If we did a dynasty startup draft now and I had the 1.01 - that pick is going to be Calvin Johnson. You might snag Lesean McCoy a few picks later and get more short term value but 5-8 years from now I expect to have 5-8 years of elite WR production whereas I think you would be lucky to have 3-4 years of elite RB production from McCoy.

If we compared across positions, Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton would run away with it. They score more points than any WR. They will last longer than any WR. The very simple concept of value over replacement also applies to dynasty leagues. Most owners don't understand that.You don't compare Calvin to McCoy. You compare McCoy and the WR you get in the 2nd round to Calvin and the RB you get in the 2nd round, et cetera.

LOL. Without sounding like a tool, I'm pretty sure I understand how to build a dynasty team. Why do I have to compare McCoy and a 2nd round WR to Calvin and a 2nd round RB? I would in a redraft league but in a dynasty league I am accumulating the best talent I can.

Because value over replacement still applies. The 3 startups I have done this season, I am 13-2, own the points lead in 2, was voted the best draft in 2 (the only 2 with the poll (tied in 1)), and own either (or both) McCoy or McFadden in all of them. My #2 RBs are MJD, McFadden, and Adrian Peterson. I am pretty sure I know how to build a dynasty team too.

LOL. Shall everyone in this thread post their dynasty accomplishments? You're judging yourself off 5 weeks in a new league. My dynasty leagues are all 3-7 years in. Steven Jackson is going to help me win this year more than Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram has a boatload more value than Jackson. You agree with that, right?Futhermore using your theory, I would take Calvin (rd1) and Mathews/Mendenhall (Rd2) over McCoy (Rd1) and Roddy White/Greg Jennings (Rd2). It's not even close.

Of course I agree with that. Not sure what your point it. Welker is going to help me win this year more than Calvin; Brady more than Newton. Matthews is no longer a round 2 pick, in most formats.If you are taking Calvin at #1, you are picking last in the 2nd round. What RB there has the value of guys like Austin, Bowe, or even Marshall?

I used the names off the FBG dynasty rankings, where Mathews was 26th overall and Mendenhall was a mid-2nd rounder.Not sure what my point is? You're the one spewing stuff about how stats matter THIS YEAR. I'm trying to get you to look long term since it's a dynasty league.Post the top 12 picks on average in dynasty startups over the last 6-8 years. I bet Andre Johnson shows up consistently. I bet you'll see names like Cadillac Williams, Rudi Johnson, among others too. Your entire theory is that you hit on a RB that will be elite and stay elite for several years. I'm saying it's much easier to do that with a WR especially one with Calvin's talent. Hell, the #1 overall player in fantasy last year wasn't even drafted in the first 75 picks of most dynasty rookie drafts when he came out.

 

[Patoons]

I have seen both work too. There is certainly a case to be made for going WR/WR when drafting outside of the top 8-10 picks. But, when drafting in the top 3, I don't see any reason not to go young, stud RB. Calvin is the closest thing to an exception I can find, but with elite, young talent like McFadden, McCoy and Foster, I can't do it.As for "long term", I think Foster, McCoy, and McFadden have at least 4 seasons. So, for 4 seasons I have an advantage. I can still draft young WRs, QBs, and TEs and be in the mix 5 years from now.McCoyAustinBestMarshall/RiceHernandezRoethlisbergerFast forward 4 years and that team is still contending.

Yeah, that's a solid team, though not sold on Best long-term (but that's a discussion for a different topic). It depends on how you play the draft from the slot you're given. Last year, for example, I went WR-WR in a startup and picked up Foster/Wells later on. Foster paid dividends. Years ago I did something similar with Gore. This year, I went Pierre Thomas / Beanie pre-draft. Now I have a HUGE hole at RB#2 there... so it's going to take some additional time to fill that hole. Though, both are competitive. I think the WR-WR works for sure.Me... if I'm the first pick I'm going Calvin no question. I prefer to build with a WR as the cornerstone and fill my RB in the 2nd or 3rd depending how the picks fall unless it's a required RB 3 start.

 

[az_prof]

i understand Freddy Jackson is up there in regards to RB age however is the mileage high on him? I tend to lean more on mileage then age and i just cant see Freddy all of a sudden falling off a cliff the next couple years on a nice Buffalo squad.i do have a contending team however but even still i know his value carries WAY WAY more then the Mendy/Felix you get this year in dynasties so just saying. I'm pretty sure you could do really well trading him to a contending team for Mendy+ right now as an example

"Mileage" is almost meaningless. Age is the objective measure of shelf life. Human beings are not like cars. Our body ages and deteriorates even if we are sitting in the garage, so to speak.

 

[FavreCo]

Thanks but I'll keep Andre Johnson for the next 5+ years. If TO can play that long, this guy can. He's superior. I'll also keep Beanie as his injury last year obviously affected his play. He's at a minimum, splitting time next year and the GL back.

 

[az_prof]

On the debate about weighing WRs vs RBs: a lot depends on your scoring system and your starting lineup reqs, but in general, you need to weigh the value of Longterm Durability vs. Replacement Cost.

On durability, the fact of the matter is that WRs have longer careers. Almost none of the top RBs from six years ago are still elite RBs. Maybe SJAX is the only one left and he isn't exactly at the top of the heap anymore. But quite a few of the top WRs from 2005 are still playing, and still at the top of the game. So, in dynasty, that's a very valuable commodity--to be able to lock up a WR1 or WR2 for perhaps 8 years.

But, on the other hand, depending on your starting REQS, the replacement cost of RBs may be steeper. This is because there simply are not as many starting RBs in the NFL, and of those, there are even fewer who are not in some type of time share. So, RBs may be a more rare commodity.

You need to look at your league's rules to figure out how to balance the demands of long term value and durability against the high replacement cost for RBs. If your league allows flex options, then the fewer slots requiring a RB, and the more allowing a WR, the greater the value of WRs. We already determined that WRs last longer, so if you need more of them and fewer RBs, the longevity outweighs RB replacement value.

On the other hand, if you must start 2 RBs and 2 WRs, then the replacement value of the RB is more important, and the challenge of always having two solid starting RBs takes precedence of the durablity of the WRs. If you must start MORE RBs than WRs, this is even more so.

Scoring also affects this, as WRs tend to be more valuable in PPR leagues. PPR makes them more consistent scorers than in TD/yardage leagues. And while some RBs will be MORE valuable in PPR, overall, it raises the relative value of WRs because it makes them more consistent.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

Curious as to why you have J Stewart that much higher than D. Williams? Do you see Stewart overtaking Williams or going to a different team where he can be the main guy?

37. Jonathan Stewart, RB PanthersI was scrolling to down to point out the Stewart Ranking myself. About a year and half ago this board, as well as the majority of the fantasy community in general, blew up with the idea that Stewart was going to be the next great back. He was even in the top 3-8 players taken in start up dynasty drafts. I love the guy's talent, but expectations are too high and value/price is so inflated its crazy.

I'm really curious to hear from people who've been trying to build a team around Stewart as their RB1 or RB2. I'm firmly believe that SOOO many people are so invested in him already, they can't stand the thought of his value dropping. Don't get me wrong, its not a talent thing... But Williams, didn't move on and now Cam Newton is getting GL carries. His situation can't get a whole lot worse, but we'll still keep calling him a top Dynasty pick, even though hes currently a flex starter at best.

i think people imply when his contract is up in two years he will be able to test the FA waters himself. It's not the best scene there but if he ends up signing on with say ATL as turners replacement you probably have a top 5 RB there. its all second guessing however Stewart wont be a pawn for Carolina to waste for his entire career.

So he's a 2 year wait and see guy. Unless their is an injury? Seems like a long time to wait.

 

[Jail]

Thanks but I'll keep Andre Johnson for the next 5+ years. If TO can play that long, this guy can. He's superior. I'll also keep Beanie as his injury last year obviously affected his play. He's at a minimum, splitting time next year and the GL back.

Wasn't TO known for being a fast healer and always playing? I'm not being a smart-### here because I really don't know if he missed as many games as AJ seems to miss. Seems like every year AJ has health issues. Maybe the freakish size-speed combo that makes him such a stud won't let him hold up. If I could sell him for one of the WR in the next 4-5 spots below him plus something else I would do that. Problem is, I don't know if you can still sell for that.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Was just offered Jonathan Stewart and James Jones for Ridley? I gladly accepted... Hoping JStew finds a new home sometime soon...

 

[BlackMagic10]

Very little faith in Beanie I guess, with Best being ranked 10 spots higher. Is this due to injury concerns or do you think Best will be that much more productive than Beanie?

 

[Hendo]

Curious as to why you have J Stewart that much higher than D. Williams? Do you see Stewart overtaking Williams or going to a different team where he can be the main guy?

37. Jonathan Stewart, RB PanthersI was scrolling to down to point out the Stewart Ranking myself. About a year and half ago this board, as well as the majority of the fantasy community in general, blew up with the idea that Stewart was going to be the next great back. He was even in the top 3-8 players taken in start up dynasty drafts. I love the guy's talent, but expectations are too high and value/price is so inflated its crazy.

I'm really curious to hear from people who've been trying to build a team around Stewart as their RB1 or RB2. I'm firmly believe that SOOO many people are so invested in him already, they can't stand the thought of his value dropping. Don't get me wrong, its not a talent thing... But Williams, didn't move on and now Cam Newton is getting GL carries. His situation can't get a whole lot worse, but we'll still keep calling him a top Dynasty pick, even though hes currently a flex starter at best.

i think people imply when his contract is up in two years he will be able to test the FA waters himself. It's not the best scene there but if he ends up signing on with say ATL as turners replacement you probably have a top 5 RB there. its all second guessing however Stewart wont be a pawn for Carolina to waste for his entire career.

So he's a 2 year wait and see guy. Unless their is an injury? Seems like a long time to wait.

Definetly, however there probably is little chance of getting him at the end of the wait.

 

[Hendo]

IMHO, you continue to be WAY LOW on a lot of veteran producing RBs (Willis, Sproles, Lynch, Torain). While this is a dynasty league and the future is important, it is NOT more important than winning this year. When an injury or bye week comes, I'd much rather trot out one of those 4 RBs than Carter, Helu, or Hunter.

While that may be true, you should always have enough depth anyway. Would you seriously consider trading Carter, Hunter or Helu for one of those veterans. I can only see Sproles being worth it since those other guys are just stop gap options for their NFL teams and should only be looked at that way for your dynasty roster as well.

In most startup dynasties over the offseason, Lynch was going before all 3 of those rookies. I would without a doubt rather have Lynch currently than those three. Sproles isn't even a contest, and Willis I would also insta-accept for either of the three. I'm not sure what to make of the Redskins and Torain...but if I had to choose between Torain and Helu, I'll take the guy that has shown some ability to be a feature back and is currently starting.

So are a few mediocre to good games from Willis McGahee or Marshawn Lynch worth a potential long term starting RB? If you have to rely on those veterans you're probably in some trouble anyway.

First, I think you are being disingenuous when you say "a few mediocre to good games". In a traditional 12-team league, Willis is an every-week starter for 80% of fantasty teams. Despite having an awful schedule and few games to start the year, Lynch is a top 25 RB in scoring in my PPR league. While fantasy owner perceptions will often lie, the numbers don't -- Willis and Lynch will/should likely be in owners starting lineups fairly often, especially considering bye weeks, injuries, and matchups.I'm not willing to give up the points lossed by starting some teams backup, and risk dropping a game that could keep me out of the playoffs.

No way do i take Lynch (mediocre at best) over a young guy like Hunter who is extremely talented and has a shot to make an impact the next two years.

I bolded a section that I have previously written to highlight my point in this reply.Lynch, a 25-yr old with two 1000 yard seasons and currently undesputed starter for his team is merely "mediocre at best". Hunter, who fell to the 5th round, and all of 29 NFL carries is "extremely talented".

This is merely the "new shiny toy syndrome". While there is always a chance that a diamond in the rough becomes a star, it is much more likely that Hunter is the next Glen Coffee, Thomas Clayton, or Anthony Dixon. So while you wait for Gore to get a career ending injury, and then hope that the 49ers don't bring in or draft another RB (p.s. They would), I'd just go along and plug Lynch or Willis or whoever "mediocre at best" RB is currently putting up RB2-3 numbers and giving my team a better chance to actually win games.

Since when does draft status have anything to do with RB production? Do we really have to rehash this or is this a valid argument for you? Lynch has been mediocre for years now. Call Kendall Hunter what you want but he's explosive and has shown it this season, he had a clear path for success after Gore and if you really think this kid is Glenn Coffee, Anthony Dixon (who by the way do not match him at all in size nor any skill) then you clearly are throwing drivel out there and have never paid attention to a 49er game what so ever.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Very little faith in Beanie I guess, with Best being ranked 10 spots higher. Is this due to injury concerns or do you think Best will be that much more productive than Beanie?

Black Magic, thanks for visiting! Remember this is a PPR Dynasty, so that's where I think Best gets the nod. He also is an in explosive offense with the best WR in the game and a young QB with some serious talent. Beanie has had a nice year so far, but the O-Line concerns me AND so does Kolb. Both RBs are injury prone, but when Best is healthy, he is lightening fast and dangerous on the field. Not sure I can say the same for Beanie?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

BUMP...

 

[Joseph]

Thanks but I'll keep Andre Johnson for the next 5+ years. If TO can play that long, this guy can. He's superior. I'll also keep Beanie as his injury last year obviously affected his play. He's at a minimum, splitting time next year and the GL back.

Wasn't TO known for being a fast healer and always playing? I'm not being a smart-### here because I really don't know if he missed as many games as AJ seems to miss. Seems like every year AJ has health issues. Maybe the freakish size-speed combo that makes him such a stud won't let him hold up. If I could sell him for one of the WR in the next 4-5 spots below him plus something else I would do that. Problem is, I don't know if you can still sell for that.

I've been quietly shopping AJ in one of my leagues and the best offer I've gotten is Carolina Steve Smith plus something else, which I'm not sure isn't a fair deal in reality, but the perceived value of AJ vs Smith is so different that I can't bring myself to go for that.

 

[Crazy Tony]

Well I'm thankful for the rankings but sad to say I appear to be screwed.

I just tried selling McGahee high. NOPE!

Turns out I'll need him with Blount out.

I think I'll ride him out for the production maybe someone will change their mind.

I'd sell gates too if I could but maybe he'll come back.

I'd like to sell Djackson because he's bipolar scorer.

Guys have a point out the "PROSPECTING vs POINTS TODAY"

I have an offer Steve Jackson for 1st 2012 and SSmith PHI....weird cuz he has Vick and I have Djax. I guess he's buying low and wanting a third 1st rounder in 2012 He's 0-5.

All of the players I need are on the wrong teams that should trade them.

 

[jimbodan]

Where would you rank rookie draft picks in the list? For example in general would most players inside the top 20 be worth a 1st rounder? What about a 2nd, 3rd etc...? Obviously different scoring, different starting formats, as well as individual team needs greatly change things but I would find it incredibly useful if you could put break points in for picks. Like 1-20 = probable 1st, 21-50 = 2nd, etc...