Upside guys. (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

My biggest "upside" guy is Torrey Smith. He came into the league very raw and for the most part has stayed healthy. With technique, the guy has enough athleticism to be a big time playmaker.

I think he could score 12 Touchdowns in a season if everything goes right. He's becoming a better receiver every time you watch him play. He's also managed to stay healthy. So hasn't lost any athleticism. He's falling far enough to where he's a great pick.

I will get him as my WR 3 in a few leagues and be very happy about it.

This is how it's done Coach.

 

[Tchula]

People say this about him every year. He never lives up to the hype. I'd rather have TY Hilton at roughly the same ADP.

 

[Eminence]

Too many mouths to feed in Indy for my liking. I like Reggie Wayne. Another upside guy.

 

[Eminence]

I guess you could say Smith has a low floor. He gets a ton of targets.

 

[Eminence]

For his draft position, Stedman Bailey is another upside guy.

 

[bostonfred]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

 

[Eminence]

I personally think Smith will get more targets this year than last year.

 

[Eminence]

Terrance Williams is another upside guy.

 

[Freelove]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying with respect to situation, but I'd be careful using black and white additive/subtractive logic. The whole offense is going to look different this year, what with Kubiak coming on board and all. And Kubiak's never been an "adapt to the talent you have" guy. He's going to run his O, just like he has every year of his career.

You can't really compare situations TOO directly, but if Torrey put up anything like an average of every season Anthony Miller, Rod Smith, and Andre Johnson ever had as starting X in Kubiak's offense, he'd be looking at career highs across the board. He's almost certainly going to shatter his previous career high in receptions, and even if he doesn't get quite as many deep looks as before, his TD's aren't likely to take a dip from their already lagging numbers. Maybe his speed and athleticism in space can help him.

On balance, I agree that he's got a good bit of untapped potential still, and is in a situation where he's likely to have at least the opportunity to showcase it. He's probably not going to shuffle around into the slot like AJ did situationally, so I don't see him becoming a 100 reception threat any time soon. But 80+ wouldn't surprise me in the least. And if that happens, the rest will take care of itself.

 

[bostonfred]

Guys getting taken outside the top 90 picks in twelve team leagues with high end upside

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2014&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all

93 Decker should be one of the league leaders in targets. Excellent red zone guy with good size and speed.

108 Josh Gordon enough said.

113 Deandre Hopkins he looked good last season and could be ready to take a step forward. Andre Johnson is already dealing with a minor hamstring and sitting out has allowed Hopkins top get some tips with a new qb. Could emerge.

122 anquan Boldin I wasn't high on Boldin last year either but man did he out yup sold numbers in San Francisco. I won't draft him as a starter but he's a nice late round value pick.

131 Justin Hunter the cat is out of the bag here. I want high on him before and I'm still cautious but he sure looked good on that last preseason game.

146 Jordan Mathews other rookies are getting more press but Mathews could be the number one receiver in this offense by year end. Not saying he will, but he is a high upside lottery ticket in redrafts.

 

[One More Rep]

Guys getting taken outside the top 90 picks in twelve team leagues with high end upside

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2014&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all

93 Decker should be one of the league leaders in targets. Excellent red zone guy with good size and speed.

108 Josh Gordon enough said.

113 Deandre Hopkins he looked good last season and could be ready to take a step forward. Andre Johnson is already dealing with a minor hamstring and sitting out has allowed Hopkins top get some tips with a new qb. Could emerge.

122 anquan Boldin I wasn't high on Boldin last year either but man did he out yup sold numbers in San Francisco. I won't draft him as a starter but he's a nice late round value pick.

131 Justin Hunter the cat is out of the bag here. I want high on him before and I'm still cautious but he sure looked good on that last preseason game.

146 Jordan Mathews other rookies are getting more press but Mathews could be the number one receiver in this offense by year end. Not saying he will, but he is a high upside lottery ticket in redrafts.

Nice list., I would add Dobson and Wheaton as guys you can get late that out produce their adp

 

[bostonfred]

Marqise Lee and miles Austin or baby hawk are good late round stakes to

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Britt, randle, and Wallace

 

[Maggot Brain]

I'll be Captain Obvious here and say that Ertz is due for a BIG jump this year. I'm going out on a limb and say he'll be in the Graham/Gronkowski sub realm of production.

 

[SameSongNDance]

There was an interesting article on rotoworld pertaining to the possible misconception of upside. Mike Wallace was used as an example..

"Players like Mike Wallace. I often hear other fantasy owners equate speed to upside, arguing that Wallace and similar players are high-ceiling options because they can score from deep. I disagree completely because the way they thrive is based off of low-frequency events (long touchdowns) that are highly unlikely to be repeated multiple times in a single game.

Want evidence of that? Up to this point, Wallace has played 79 games during his NFL career, but he has a career-high of just 144 yards. One-hundred forty-four yards! For one of the game’s most explosive players? Can’t be. Wallace has also never caught more than two touchdowns in a game in his entire career, and he’s done that only five times.

Wallace doesn’t have a high ceiling, even though that’s fun to believe, but he also doesn’t have a very high floor. Because he’s dependent on big plays for production, he’ll turn in some stinker performances. He’s also extremely easy to take out of games. Want to stop Wallace? Just play press-bail; don’t let him catch quick screens, but bail after the snap so he can’t get deep. That’s what defenses have done in the playoffs—when Wallace has compiled an average of four catches for 35 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per gave over four contests."

You can draw certain parallels between Smith and Wallace, although Smith has already exhibited a higher ceiling (a three TD game, four multi TD games in 46 games and a high of 166 yards) but it's just something to keep in mind when looking at upside.

 

[Freelove]

There was an interesting article on rotoworld pertaining to the possible misconception of upside. Mike Wallace was used as an example..

"Players like Mike Wallace. I often hear other fantasy owners equate speed to upside, arguing that Wallace and similar players are high-ceiling options because they can score from deep. I disagree completely because the way they thrive is based off of low-frequency events (long touchdowns) that are highly unlikely to be repeated multiple times in a single game.

Want evidence of that? Up to this point, Wallace has played 79 games during his NFL career, but he has a career-high of just 144 yards. One-hundred forty-four yards! For one of the game’s most explosive players? Can’t be. Wallace has also never caught more than two touchdowns in a game in his entire career, and he’s done that only five times.

Wallace doesn’t have a high ceiling, even though that’s fun to believe, but he also doesn’t have a very high floor. Because he’s dependent on big plays for production, he’ll turn in some stinker performances. He’s also extremely easy to take out of games. Want to stop Wallace? Just play press-bail; don’t let him catch quick screens, but bail after the snap so he can’t get deep. That’s what defenses have done in the playoffs—when Wallace has compiled an average of four catches for 35 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per gave over four contests."

You can draw certain parallels between Smith and Wallace, although Smith has already exhibited a higher ceiling (a three TD game, four multi TD games in 46 games and a high of 166 yards) but it's just something to keep in mind when looking at upside.

I have trouble giving much credence to any article that says a guy who already has a 1250/10 season on his resume doesn't have a high ceiling.

 

[rickyg]

My upside guys:

Justin hunter: potential josh Gordon type breakout

Tavon Austin (ppr especially): is basically a forgotten 1st rd pick after last years disappointment.

Brian quick/Kenny Britt: one of these guys is going to pay fantasy bills this year. I'm betting on quick.

Kenny stills: shhhhh. While everyone is over drafting cooks, still can be had for pennies on the dollar in the late rounds of your draft. He is going to be money this year.

Miles Austin: maybe if he can stay healthy. If he does and Gordon is suspended look out. He can be big Time with hoyer slinging it to him.

Ahmad Bradshaw. Can be had at the end of drafts. Does anyone really still believe Richardson will bounce back this year? Apparently so BC he is going in the middle rounds of drafts while Bradshaw is barely drafted.

Chris Polk: McCoy was very busy last year and if anything happens to him this year Polk is an instant top 10 Rb.

 

[SameSongNDance]

There was an interesting article on rotoworld pertaining to the possible misconception of upside. Mike Wallace was used as an example..

"Players like Mike Wallace. I often hear other fantasy owners equate speed to upside, arguing that Wallace and similar players are high-ceiling options because they can score from deep. I disagree completely because the way they thrive is based off of low-frequency events (long touchdowns) that are highly unlikely to be repeated multiple times in a single game.

Want evidence of that? Up to this point, Wallace has played 79 games during his NFL career, but he has a career-high of just 144 yards. One-hundred forty-four yards! For one of the game’s most explosive players? Can’t be. Wallace has also never caught more than two touchdowns in a game in his entire career, and he’s done that only five times.

Wallace doesn’t have a high ceiling, even though that’s fun to believe, but he also doesn’t have a very high floor. Because he’s dependent on big plays for production, he’ll turn in some stinker performances. He’s also extremely easy to take out of games. Want to stop Wallace? Just play press-bail; don’t let him catch quick screens, but bail after the snap so he can’t get deep. That’s what defenses have done in the playoffs—when Wallace has compiled an average of four catches for 35 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per gave over four contests."

You can draw certain parallels between Smith and Wallace, although Smith has already exhibited a higher ceiling (a three TD game, four multi TD games in 46 games and a high of 166 yards) but it's just something to keep in mind when looking at upside.

I have trouble giving much credence to any article that says a guy who already has a 1250/10 season on his resume doesn't have a high ceiling.

I agree the analysis seems arbitrary without an established threshold. I don't necessarily agree with his sentiments just found it interesting. He followed the above with..

Now let’s compare Wallace to a receiver like Vincent Jackson, whose ADP has been similar to Wallace’s over the years. Since Wallace came into the league, V-Jax has topped Wallace’s career-high single-game receiving total on five occasions (with three more that have come within three yards), while also scoring three touchdowns a couple times. Or how about Josh Gordon, who beat Wallace’s career-high for receiving yards four times in 2013 alone!

The point here is that we can classify wide receivers fairly easily and make accurate assessments regarding their upside and safety. If we’re going to create a general barbell-based rule-of-thumb for receiver drafting, it’s this: draft wide receivers who can consistently dominate in the red zone, giving them high week-to-week ceilings, but if you side with a wide receiver who doesn’t score a lot, he better see a bunch of short targets (giving him high week-to-week consistency), a la Percy Harvin, Kendall Wright, and so on.

I'm assuming his point is that ultimately Wallace's ceiling in comparison to other WRs isn't as high as it's perceived to be. Then again, Wallace is being drafted as late as the 7th round so now we're mostly looking at value. In this case, you could grab someone like Colston at a similar position and although Colston is perceived to be "steady" (80/1000/8 like clockwork) his ceiling isn't actually much lower/any different than Wallace's.

 

[Freelove]

I dunno. I guess either I don't see his point, or he missed his mark in making it.

If the point is that Josh Gordon has a higher ceiling than Mike Wallace...well, duh.

If it's that Vincent Jackson has been a better example of a high ceiling guy than Wallace was during his Steeler-years prime, than I'd counter that his evidence about VJax having multiple bigger single-game totals during his life, while never quite putting up a total season as good as 1250/10, is more like an example that a boom/bust guy, even a super talented one, can kill you, and you're better off with a guy who does it week in/week out.

All that said, I don't think anyone is all that bullish on Wallace these days. But obviously he's still got the physical tools to put up WR1 type seasons -- he's already proven it.

(ETA: and since he can be had at a super-deep discount relative to Jackson, I think discussion about his "ceiling" is more relevant than Jackson's fairly well established one, anyway.)

 

[Ilov80s]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

Torrey has been crazy consistent in his 3 years. In non-ppr he has averaged 8.1, 8.4 and 8.6 Finished as WR 22, 23, and 21. Looking at it like that, it does seem like he is a low ceiling/high floor guy. However, there is room for him to have a nice jump. His first two years, he scored 7 and 8 TDs but only 800 yards each year. In 2013, it inverted. He put up 1,100 yards but only scored 4 TDs. If he can keep his higher level of targets and yards from 2013 and get the TD numbers he was posting his first two years, then we could see 1,100 and 8. While that isn't going to put him in AJ Green territory, it is a nice enough bump to put him at 9.8 ppg and finish around WR 13-17 which would be on par with guys going much earlier (Fitzgerald, Hilton).

 

[cstu]

Too many mouths to feed in Indy for my liking. I like Reggie Wayne. Another upside guy.

Luck at QB vs. Flacco...I'll take Luck even with more mouths to feed.

 

[rjv]

Nicks to me is a high upside guy. Has alot to proove and woorking for a longer term deal.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

Torrey has been crazy consistent in his 3 years. In non-ppr he has averaged 8.1, 8.4 and 8.6 Finished as WR 22, 23, and 21. Looking at it like that, it does seem like he is a low ceiling/high floor guy. However, there is room for him to have a nice jump. His first two years, he scored 7 and 8 TDs but only 800 yards each year. In 2013, it inverted. He put up 1,100 yards but only scored 4 TDs. If he can keep his higher level of targets and yards from 2013 and get the TD numbers he was posting his first two years, then we could see 1,100 and 8. While that isn't going to put him in AJ Green territory, it is a nice enough bump to put him at 9.8 ppg and finish around WR 13-17 which would be on par with guys going much earlier (Fitzgerald, Hilton).

Smith lead his team in RZ targets last year (16). M.Brown had 14. Seems a bit on the low side in general though, BAL was likely #### in the RZ. There's also the return of Pitta as bostonfred mentioned, who I seem to remember being a favorite of Flacco's in the RZ when he was healthy. I'm not so sure I love Smith's TD prospects this year even if they are a bit random. I am a huge fan of Pitta though.

 

[Ilov80s]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

Torrey has been crazy consistent in his 3 years. In non-ppr he has averaged 8.1, 8.4 and 8.6 Finished as WR 22, 23, and 21. Looking at it like that, it does seem like he is a low ceiling/high floor guy. However, there is room for him to have a nice jump. His first two years, he scored 7 and 8 TDs but only 800 yards each year. In 2013, it inverted. He put up 1,100 yards but only scored 4 TDs. If he can keep his higher level of targets and yards from 2013 and get the TD numbers he was posting his first two years, then we could see 1,100 and 8. While that isn't going to put him in AJ Green territory, it is a nice enough bump to put him at 9.8 ppg and finish around WR 13-17 which would be on par with guys going much earlier (Fitzgerald, Hilton).

Smith lead his team in RZ targets last year (16). M.Brown had 14. Seems a bit on the low side in general though, BAL was likely #### in the RZ. There's also the return of Pitta as bostonfred mentioned, who I seem to remember being a favorite of Flacco's in the RZ when he was healthy. I'm not so sure I love Smith's TD prospects this year even if they are a bit random. I am a huge fan of Pitta though.

Right, I am not saying he gets 8. I am just saying there is precedent for it and when you look at his career (admittedly it is short) the 4 TDs stands out as low. For Smith to make that jump, it wouldn't require anything new to happen, anything he hasn't proven he can do.

 

[buck naked]

Too many mouths to feed in Indy for my liking. I like Reggie Wayne. Another upside guy.

Reggie Wayne is 35 coming off an ACL. That means absolutely ZERO upside. Or we have completely different definitions of the word.

 

[bostonfred]

Too many mouths to feed in Indy for my liking. I like Reggie Wayne. Another upside guy.

Reggie Wayne is 35 coming off an ACL. That means absolutely ZERO upside. Or we have completely different definitions of the word.

Actually that's a good point. He doesn't have true wr1 upside, and he isn't likely to out produce his career bests so by that definition he doesn't have upside either. But what I'm interested in personally is guys I can take late who can give me starting wr production. And Wayne may guy that definition. I don't expect fourteen hundred yards or twelve tds, but eleven hundred and nine is possible, and that's plenty of upside if the price is right.

 

[Faust]

My biggest "upside" guy is Torrey Smith. He came into the league very raw and for the most part has stayed healthy. With technique, the guy has enough athleticism to be a big time playmaker.

I think he could score 12 Touchdowns in a season if everything goes right. He's becoming a better receiver every time you watch him play. He's also managed to stay healthy. So hasn't lost any athleticism. He's falling far enough to where he's a great pick.

I will get him as my WR 3 in a few leagues and be very happy about it.

This is how it's done Coach.

I just don't see this happening anytime soon. Here's why:

1. Flacco annual total TD passes from his 2nd year onward (21, 25, 20, 22, and 19 last year).

2. Lots of targets to spread the ball around to in T. Smith, S. Smith, Marlon Brown, Pitta, etc.

3. Torrey Smith just seems to have shown us so far that he is a solid WR that can potentially hit in the 70-80 catches range, but he struggles to be a consistent red-zone producer due to a combination of size, skills, and offensive system.

I could end up being wrong with continued development, and with Kubiak's influence, but I just don't see everything aligning for Torrey Smith to hit 12 TDs this year or next year.

 

[bostonfred]

I can actually see flacco hitting thirty touchdowns this year. It's not unreasonable with a change in offenses, a new receiver, a couple good tight ends and a coach who likes to use them, and a questionable running game. But even then I think the rising tide lifts other boats, not just Smith.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I can actually see flacco hitting thirty touchdowns this year. It's not unreasonable with a change in offenses, a new receiver, a couple good tight ends and a coach who likes to use them, and a questionable running game. But even then I think the rising tide lifts other boats, not just Smith.

BAL's RZ scoring percentage was 46.15% last year with only JAC (43.9%) being worse. It honestly can't get much worse than last year.

 

[Ilov80s]

I can actually see flacco hitting thirty touchdowns this year. It's not unreasonable with a change in offenses, a new receiver, a couple good tight ends and a coach who likes to use them, and a questionable running game. But even then I think the rising tide lifts other boats, not just Smith.

BAL's RZ scoring percentage was 46.15% last year with only JAC (43.9%) being worse. It honestly can't get much worse than last year.

I think Pitta really helps that, it seems like he is most reliable RZ option they have.

 

[Khy]

I've been drafting Hunter in every single league I'm in in the 11/12th rounds. Looks like the cats probably out of the bag on him now, I'm seeing him going around the 7/8th after this weekends game.

Kenny Stills - People are going ape for Cooks but I have a feeling Stills could be one of those guys who posts 60 receptions, 1150 yards and 8-10 TDs this season and somehow he's going extremely late. Cooks is a ppr guy but I think his actual TD and yardage ceiling is capped pretty low in season one. Colston is ancient, Sproles is gone. Someone has to catch the big plays, to me it's clearly Stills.

Carlos Hyde - He'll take over for Gore at some point this season and could slot in as an immediate RB1 when it comes to it. I know, every year we claim "this is the year" for Gore and we're always wrong. But at this point, we've been claiming it for so long, at some point we're bound to be right. So I'll buy him at his ADP and hope this is the real year.

Greg Jennings - He'll be a WR2/WR3 and at his ADP he essentially costs a stick of gum.

Brian Hartline - See Greg Jennings

Tavon Austin - It's possible he never pans out... but something in my gut tells me him and Bradford are going to hook up a bunch this season. I don't really have any reason besides that, it's possible he's the next Ted Ginn Jr but I think he has a lot more talent if he's used consistently.

Lance Dunbar - Last season Bush (54) and Bell (53) caught 107 passes in Linehan's offense. Dunbar is a really good receiving back. I think he's a solid sleeper for 50-60 receptions this season and having a Danny Woodhead/Pierre Thomas like season where he quietly keeps putting up RB2/flex games week to week in PPR.

Dexter McCluster - I think he's good for about 100-125 carries this season and another 50-60 receptions. Could be a great bye week/flex guy with bigger upside.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think Dunbar counts as high upside. He's a high floor, low upside play. If Murray gets hurt one of randle or maybe even Ryan Williams would become the starter. So the only realistic upside is what he can do on his own, and that is be a mediocre rb 2. And for that low ceiling, you get to pay high end backup rb prices for a backup who isn't even the backup and who is injury prone himself.

A guy like that could be a good fit for a wr heavy team that loaded up on studs at every position but rb and needs warm bodies for a committee. That would be a fine fit. Or as a rb 4 on a high risk rb team with guys like foster, Lamar Miller, maybe gerhart out something, one where there is a legitimate possibility you don't even have a starting rb on your team or where you're going to be sweating injuries all year. But high upside isn't the word I would use.

 

[Ilov80s]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

 

[skol asylum]

Emmanuel Sanders

 

[Ilov80s]

Emmanuel Sanders

Yes, absolutely.

 

[bostonfred]

Arian foster fits the bill

 

[SameSongNDance]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

He's my favorite 2nd round back atm and I feel like he's being slightly undervalued. If I'm confronted with Lynch, Bell, Murray or Ball in PPR I'm going Ball every time

Arian foster fits the bill

According to MFL he's going at 3.04 which feel just about right considering the risk and top 3 upside. Personally, I won't touch because of the obvious physical risk and the fact that he heavily debated retiring after last year's injury.

 

[rjv]

Paul Richardson WR SEA. Man I really like this kid..

 

[Henry Ford]

Smith took a big step up in fantasy production last year but I don't know if he can take a bigger step forward this year. Last year was a perfect storm for him, with Pitta out, Boldin gone,rice and pierce ineffective, and undrafted rookies starting opposite him.if he was going to put up elite fantasy numbers, that was his best shot.

Now he has a healthy Pitta,a healthy rice, healthy pierce, Steve Smith, and more experience for the young guys. Based on opportunity alone I would expect some regression in his stats, so not only would he need to take a step forward in his own game just to replicate last year's numbers, he would need to make a serious leap to improve significantly on them. that's possible, of course. He's young and talented and probably the best pass catcher on the team. But he's still not polished at route running, and flacco limits his upside, too.

If you're wondering if flacco can support a stud wr, look at Boldin before and after Baltimore. He was a stud in Arizona, mediocre in Baltimore, and a stud again in San Francisco.

To me, Smith is a decent high floor, low upside guy, the exact opposite of what your asking about in this thread. I don't know if Smith can ever reach his full potential in that offense.

Yeah, I like Smith - I won a dynasty championship with him as my WR2 last year - but I don't think he's a high upside guy.

 

[FFFIEND]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

He's my favorite 2nd round back atm and I feel like he's being slightly undervalued. If I'm confronted with Lynch, Bell, Murray or Ball in PPR I'm going Ball every time

Lynch is a guy I am avoiding this year. I do think he should be good, but I just have a feeling about him. I am with you on Ball over Lynch, but I would slide in Murray above them all. With that group you listed:

1) Murray

2) Ball

3) Lynch

Lynch had 366 carries last season when you include that playoff workload!

REF: http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

I do love his playing style, but I can't put him on my roster in 2014. I think I will just have to admire his "real" NFL skill and not his fantasy value.

 

[Ack88]

Like Donte Moncrief. Feel like he will be playing in all the 3 wide sets by the end of the year. I'm not sold on Reggie Wayne making it all the way back, not do I love Nicks, Whalen, Rodgers.

Hilton will probably be wr1 in Indy this year, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Moncrief end up as wr2.

 

[eoMMan]

Arian foster fits the bill

No way. Fbg has him in the top ten RB which I think is insane.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

He's my favorite 2nd round back atm and I feel like he's being slightly undervalued. If I'm confronted with Lynch, Bell, Murray or Ball in PPR I'm going Ball every time

Lynch is a guy I am avoiding this year. I do think he should be good, but I just have a feeling about him. I am with you on Ball over Lynch, but I would slide in Murray above them all. With that group you listed:

1) Murray

2) Ball

3) Lynch

Lynch had 366 carries last season when you include that playoff workload!

REF: http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

I do love his playing style, but I can't put him on my roster in 2014. I think I will just have to admire his "real" NFL skill and not his fantasy value.

Not surprising at all. I was looking at regular season RB touches and wasn't surprised to see Lynch leading all RBs over the past three years with 1009 touches. Second was Rice with 957. I didn't even look at post season touches but I'm going to assume that Lynch would still maintain the lead. He definitely has a fair amount of tread on his tires and although I don't know if it'll catch up to him this year, I don't want to be the guy stuck with him when it does. I also don't see him hitting 300 carries this season either as they focus a bit more on their future with Turbin/Micheal. At his current spot in PPR, I just don't see the value.

The reason I have Murray ranked below Ball is mostly due to projected workload and durability issues. I'm not nearly as confident in Murray completing a full season as I am with Ball. Murray is more of a known quantity but if Moreno could do it in that offense I see no reason why Ball can't emulate/eclipse his production.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'll be Captain Obvious here and say that Ertz is due for a BIG jump this year. I'm going out on a limb and say he'll be in the Graham/Gronkowski sub realm of production.

I think you're right. Erz looks great!

 

[Leonidas]

There was an interesting article on rotoworld pertaining to the possible misconception of upside. Mike Wallace was used as an example..

"Players like Mike Wallace. I often hear other fantasy owners equate speed to upside, arguing that Wallace and similar players are high-ceiling options because they can score from deep. I disagree completely because the way they thrive is based off of low-frequency events (long touchdowns) that are highly unlikely to be repeated multiple times in a single game.

Want evidence of that? Up to this point, Wallace has played 79 games during his NFL career, but he has a career-high of just 144 yards. One-hundred forty-four yards! For one of the game’s most explosive players? Can’t be. Wallace has also never caught more than two touchdowns in a game in his entire career, and he’s done that only five times.

Wallace doesn’t have a high ceiling, even though that’s fun to believe, but he also doesn’t have a very high floor. Because he’s dependent on big plays for production, he’ll turn in some stinker performances. He’s also extremely easy to take out of games. Want to stop Wallace? Just play press-bail; don’t let him catch quick screens, but bail after the snap so he can’t get deep. That’s what defenses have done in the playoffs—when Wallace has compiled an average of four catches for 35 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per gave over four contests."

You can draw certain parallels between Smith and Wallace, although Smith has already exhibited a higher ceiling (a three TD game, four multi TD games in 46 games and a high of 166 yards) but it's just something to keep in mind when looking at upside.

I have trouble giving much credence to any article that says a guy who already has a 1250/10 season on his resume doesn't have a high ceiling.

Just don't read anything from rotoworld any more. Problem solved.

 

[Leonidas]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

He's my favorite 2nd round back atm and I feel like he's being slightly undervalued. If I'm confronted with Lynch, Bell, Murray or Ball in PPR I'm going Ball every time

Lynch is a guy I am avoiding this year. I do think he should be good, but I just have a feeling about him. I am with you on Ball over Lynch, but I would slide in Murray above them all. With that group you listed:

1) Murray

2) Ball

3) Lynch

Lynch had 366 carries last season when you include that playoff workload!

REF: http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

I do love his playing style, but I can't put him on my roster in 2014. I think I will just have to admire his "real" NFL skill and not his fantasy value.

Not surprising at all. I was looking at regular season RB touches and wasn't surprised to see Lynch leading all RBs over the past three years with 1009 touches. Second was Rice with 957. I didn't even look at post season touches but I'm going to assume that Lynch would still maintain the lead. He definitely has a fair amount of tread on his tires and although I don't know if it'll catch up to him this year, I don't want to be the guy stuck with him when it does. I also don't see him hitting 300 carries this season either as they focus a bit more on their future with Turbin/Micheal. At his current spot in PPR, I just don't see the value.

The reason I have Murray ranked below Ball is mostly due to projected workload and durability issues. I'm not nearly as confident in Murray completing a full season as I am with Ball. Murray is more of a known quantity but if Moreno could do it in that offense I see no reason why Ball can't emulate/eclipse his production.

Tread on your tires is a good thing that means you do not have very much wear.

As a tire wears, you LOSE tread. If you think he is high mileage and worn, he has little tread left

And I think that is something to legitimately be concerned with given his high price, the continued development of Wilson, a potentially healthy Harvin, Turbin/Michaels' presence, and the way high wear and tear RB's can simply fall off a cliff

 

[silentcoach]

Upside, as in pure upside and disregarding floor?

Spiller, Ellington

Like someone mentioned earlier, Murray, but I did not list him as he is already drafted as a top 6 rb. Murray's main concern is his durability issue. He has played 13, 10, and 14 games during his career and thus failed to play in 16 games to date. Nonetheless Murray's career avg is 5.0 yard per carry--not shabby at all.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Isn't Montee Ball kind I the biggest upside guy now? He seems to firmly have fallen into the mid 2nd round and is one of the few guys that really could post 20 TDs.

He's my favorite 2nd round back atm and I feel like he's being slightly undervalued. If I'm confronted with Lynch, Bell, Murray or Ball in PPR I'm going Ball every time

Lynch is a guy I am avoiding this year. I do think he should be good, but I just have a feeling about him. I am with you on Ball over Lynch, but I would slide in Murray above them all. With that group you listed:

1) Murray

2) Ball

3) Lynch

Lynch had 366 carries last season when you include that playoff workload!

REF: http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

I do love his playing style, but I can't put him on my roster in 2014. I think I will just have to admire his "real" NFL skill and not his fantasy value.

Not surprising at all. I was looking at regular season RB touches and wasn't surprised to see Lynch leading all RBs over the past three years with 1009 touches. Second was Rice with 957. I didn't even look at post season touches but I'm going to assume that Lynch would still maintain the lead. He definitely has a fair amount of tread on his tires and although I don't know if it'll catch up to him this year, I don't want to be the guy stuck with him when it does. I also don't see him hitting 300 carries this season either as they focus a bit more on their future with Turbin/Micheal. At his current spot in PPR, I just don't see the value.

The reason I have Murray ranked below Ball is mostly due to projected workload and durability issues. I'm not nearly as confident in Murray completing a full season as I am with Ball. Murray is more of a known quantity but if Moreno could do it in that offense I see no reason why Ball can't emulate/eclipse his production.

Tread on your tires is a good thing that means you do not have very much wear.

As a tire wears, you LOSE tread. If you think he is high mileage and worn, he has little tread left

And I think that is something to legitimately be concerned with given his high price, the continued development of Wilson, a potentially healthy Harvin, Turbin/Michaels' presence, and the way high wear and tear RB's can simply fall off a cliff

Thank you for the anatomy lesson on tires! That was a pretty silly brain fart though, I'm sure I've used the idiom correctly in the past. As for the usage stats, I was initially looking into them to see if there was a reason Rice may have begun to break down prematurely and of course Lynch's workload really stuck out. It's true, we've seen so many RBs break down after seasons where they were run into the ground (see FFFIEND's link) that I think it's kind of silly to totally discount that fact. If Lynch continues to go mid 2nd in PPR no less, I'll let someone else take the chance.

Upside, as in pure upside and disregarding floor?

Spiller, Ellington

Like someone mentioned earlier, Murray, but I did not list him as he is already drafted as a top 6 rb. Murray's main concern is his durability issue. He has played 13, 10, and 14 games during his career and thus failed to play in 16 games to date. Nonetheless Murray's career avg is 5.0 yard per carry--not shabby at all.

He also dislocated his patella in college, missing 3 games. I think him being injury prone was a bit overstated coming into his rookie year but he didn't exactly do anything to dispel the notion. I don't think anyone is doubting talent and situation at this point.

 

[pbandy1]

RB

Devonta Freeman

Ahmad Bradshaw

Jonathon Grimes

Lance Dunbar

WR

Dwayne Bowe (god it hurts just mentioning him)

Golden Tate

Kenny Britt

Markus Wheaton

Miles Austin

Malcolm Floyd

 

[Chaka]

I wouldn't count on it in a Kubiak offense. In 19 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach he has had a WR hit double digit TDs four times. Once was his first season as an OC in 1995 with Anthony Miller catching 14 on only 59 receptions which seems very fluky. Twice in 1997 (Rod Smith with 12) and 1998 (Ed McCaffrey with 10) during Denver's back-to-back Super Bowl runs and Rod Smith did it again in 2001 (11). I would say that 8-8 2001 team is the one that comps best with this Baltimore team. To be fair Shannon Sharpe had two 10 TD seasons (1996 & 1998) although Kubs has a tendency to use his TEs near the goal line.

Andre Johnson has never had double digit TDs in 8 seasons with Kubs as the HC and he only hit 9 TDs one time.

I could see career bests in catches and yards because Kubs likes to feature his primary targets but 12 TDs seems out of touch unless Flacco morphs into Elway for a season and Baltimore turns into the 1998 Broncos.

I guess crazier things have happened.