US economy thread (2 Viewers)

[Doug B]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

 

[Jayrod]

I started this thread long ago over some economic oddities I had never come across more as a question than any kind of definitive statement.

Things haven't been terrible, per se, but they aren't good either. I believe atypical is a better description as some things are good and some are bad and making the connection is difficult. Atypical will often lead to bad in the long run.

I'm not a pessimist, but usually an optimist in most areas of my life, but things feel unstable in a lot of ways economically. I don't know when and and don't know how, but I do keep expecting a dip/hit. Maybe the powers that be have done a good job of making it a soft landing and things will simply yo-yo a bit until we re-stabilize and maybe they have propped things up too far and there will be a bigger, harder crash. Nobody really knows.

Long story short, I think a disaster has been avoided so far and I'm cautiously optimistic but still wary of a potential implosion.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I guess it's good if you like living in the past...

The Leading Economic Indicators* for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,

So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”

*The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

US Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States

www.conference-board.org

I like living in reality. And reality is the economy is in extremely good shape overall. It's almost impossible to argue otherwise if you look at the data and eliminate partisanship.

 

[Doug B]

I like living in reality. And reality is the economy is in extremely good shape overall. It's almost impossible to argue otherwise if you look at the data and eliminate partisanship.

I would only counter that the health of the overall economy doesn't matter if too many individuals are struggling (and I don't mean the hardscrabble poor, either). The rising tide has demonstrated that not all (or not even very many) boats get lifted, IMHO.

 

[General Malaise]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

I don't go to Walmart either. There was only one in the Portland area for years way on the other side of the river but it was like the Cantina from Mos Eisley going in there the one time I did. So I hear ya....I just mentioned the price of Corona from there because it was on the innernet. $25+ for a twelve pack of Corona is absurd. I have to think you're getting taken for a ride on that. Do you have Rite-Aid? I get a lot of my beer from there - very cheap prices. Would bet Corona is under $20 there.

 

[Stoneworker]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I guess it's good if you like living in the past...

The Leading Economic Indicators* for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,

So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”

*The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

US Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States

www.conference-board.org

I like living in reality. And reality is the economy is in extremely good shape overall. It's almost impossible to argue otherwise if you look at the data and eliminate partisanship.

You might want to camouflage your political statements just a tad

 

[Hawks64]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

I don't go to Walmart either. There was only one in the Portland area for years way on the other side of the river but it was like the Cantina from Mos Eisley going in there the one time I did. So I hear ya....I just mentioned the price of Corona from there because it was on the innernet. $25+ for a twelve pack of Corona is absurd. I have to think you're getting taken for a ride on that. Do you have Rite-Aid? I get a lot of my beer from there - very cheap prices. Would bet Corona is under $20 there.

Probably not for long if they do, since they are closing 100 stores. I will only enter a Walmart if there are literally no other options, hate those places.

 

[Sand]

Probably not for long if they do, since they are closing 100 stores. I will only enter a Walmart if there are literally no other options, hate those places.

I just don't go into stores much anymore at all. Groceries/Costco are about it. Maybe a Home Depot run on occasion. It's just not necessary anymore.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I started this thread long ago over some economic oddities I had never come across more as a question than any kind of definitive statement.

Things haven't been terrible, per se, but they aren't good either. I believe atypical is a better description as some things are good and some are bad and making the connection is difficult. Atypical will often lead to bad in the long run.

I'm not a pessimist, but usually an optimist in most areas of my life, but things feel unstable in a lot of ways economically. I don't know when and and don't know how, but I do keep expecting a dip/hit. Maybe the powers that be have done a good job of making it a soft landing and things will simply yo-yo a bit until we re-stabilize and maybe they have propped things up too far and there will be a bigger, harder crash. Nobody really knows.

Long story short, I think a disaster has been avoided so far and I'm cautiously optimistic but still wary of a potential implosion.

The takeaway for you is exactly what someone posted on the first page of this thread: you + your friend don't equal the economy. Making judgments about something as complex and huge as the US economy simply because you and your friend's companies are temporarily decelerating is not logical. I do appreciate you starting this thread, because this is a common mistake that a significant portion of the people in the US are making right now.

 

[Keerock]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

I don't go to Walmart either. There was only one in the Portland area for years way on the other side of the river but it was like the Cantina from Mos Eisley going in there the one time I did. So I hear ya....I just mentioned the price of Corona from there because it was on the innernet. $25+ for a twelve pack of Corona is absurd. I have to think you're getting taken for a ride on that. Do you have Rite-Aid? I get a lot of my beer from there - very cheap prices. Would bet Corona is under $20 there.

Probably not for long if they do, since they are closing 100 stores. I will only enter a Walmart if there are literally no other options, hate those places.

We go to 99 stores to find the best prices, but WalMart ain't one...

ETA: we do use WalMart+ with free delivery (thank you AmEx) on occasion, but not too often.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

"The mean net worth of an American household, adjusted for inflation, was $1.06 million in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve's consumer finance survey.

In comparison, in 2019 the mean net worth of an average household was $868,000, marking a 23% jump.

Is this kind of thing meaningful? Or rather: Is it telling us anything meaningful about the rank-and-file people? It seems to be more an indication that the wealthy did awesome, but that a lot of people below maybe the 80th percentile in net worth ... those folks took a bath and are continuing to take baths.

One of my working assumptions about things like this is that "average** people" don't have true investment income ("true" meaning "not a 401k or similar through their work"). How are people who get by strictly on wages doing?

** I know your cite says "mean", which is good to use to reflect the math without "baggage". "Average" has both a mathematical and a rhetorical connotation.

The article gets into this, but "household wealth" is one of those variables where the mean and median are nowhere close to one another. The mean person might be a millionaire, but the median person can't even sniff seven figures:

Even when looking at the median—another measure of the average, which represents the midpoint in the ranking and is less likely to be skewed by exceptionally high or low numbers—the typical American household was worth $192,900.

Huge difference obviously. Most people are not millionaires. A million dollars isn't all that much money in terms of retirement savings, but it's still an unfathomable number for most people.

Surprisingly the median net worth is actually up even more than the mean, with a 37% increase from 2019 to 2022.

Bifurcation is definitely the right word here. But it's not like it's split in the middle. The lower class and people just now entering the workforce are getting crushed. But assets have increased way more than groceries, so anyone that had the money to buy even a LITTLE bit of assets over the last 10 years is feeling great, and the fed can't seem stop them from spending money.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

 

[Keerock]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Surprisingly the median net worth is actually up even more than the mean, with a 37% increase from 2019 to 2022.

Bifurcation is definitely the right word here. But it's not like it's split in the middle. The lower class and people just now entering the workforce are getting crushed. But assets have increased way more than groceries, so anyone that had the money to buy even a LITTLE bit of assets over the last 10 years is feeling great, and the fed can't seem stop them from spending money.

I think some of the negativity around the economy is just mood affiliation -- a lot of people think the US is headed sharply in the wrong direction, they still remember the time that they couldn't find chicken wings or yeast or whatever in the store during the pandemic, and they saw a spurt of inflation, and so they figure the economy must be doing terribly. It isn't, at least by normal metrics.

But I think you're definitely right about people with assets vs. people without assets. I'm not super excited about the stock market over the last few years, but the fact is that if you have a nest egg, own a home, etc. your net worth has probably been just fine. I see the same prices that everybody else sees, but like MOP said, it doesn't really affect me because "groceries" is a pretty small part of our household budget and we're only spending 80% or so of our income anyway. I'd probably feel differently if I were in my late 20s, renting an apartment and trying to figure out how I'm supposed to afford a home right now.

 

[Da Guru]

Where is the economy hurting? I know I keep reading about but it is hard to pinpoint exactly for me.

I have friends in the food, hospitality and hotel business who are killing it right now. The trades and service people around Metro Detroit can`t keep up.

In my business GM is up 21% in third quarter from last year, Ford sold 40K more vehicles in third quarter than last, Stellantis 20K more. Every bar and restaurant I go are always busy no matter the day and in all different areas. Same with Costco, and supermarkets. I know a couple people at the Costco I go to and they said the had their best week ever for a September this year since they have been open. Cant find a house that does not sell in days unless total trash.

 

[Psychopav]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

In their defense, you acted like self checkout at Wal-Mart is a big deal, then complained about other people being out of touch.

 

[dkp993]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

 

[Jayrod]

I started this thread long ago over some economic oddities I had never come across more as a question than any kind of definitive statement.

Things haven't been terrible, per se, but they aren't good either. I believe atypical is a better description as some things are good and some are bad and making the connection is difficult. Atypical will often lead to bad in the long run.

I'm not a pessimist, but usually an optimist in most areas of my life, but things feel unstable in a lot of ways economically. I don't know when and and don't know how, but I do keep expecting a dip/hit. Maybe the powers that be have done a good job of making it a soft landing and things will simply yo-yo a bit until we re-stabilize and maybe they have propped things up too far and there will be a bigger, harder crash. Nobody really knows.

Long story short, I think a disaster has been avoided so far and I'm cautiously optimistic but still wary of a potential implosion.

The takeaway for you is exactly what someone posted on the first page of this thread: you + your friend don't equal the economy. Making judgments about something as complex and huge as the US economy simply because you and your friend's companies are temporarily decelerating is not logical. I do appreciate you starting this thread, because this is a common mistake that a significant portion of the people in the US are making right now.

Never made judgements, just speculated we had some negative indicators.

I actually have a degree in Finance and have worked in the financial side of the corporate world for 23 years now, so I'm not some clueless dolt.

You cite a couple of reports and act like that is that and there is nothing more to say and anyone that disagree is either ignorant or a partisan hack.

You are literally doing the same thing you are accusing me of doing which is simplifying the US economy too much.

 

[Jayrod]

I like living in reality. And reality is the economy is in extremely good shape overall. It's almost impossible to argue otherwise if you look at the data and eliminate partisanship.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

I mean, honestly, how can you simply accuse everyone else of doing what you are doing?

 

[Jayrod]

Jayrod + his buddy = the economy

I'm trying to keep my snark level low on my reply here....but it is going to be tough.

No, that isn't what I said, indicated, or meant....at all. I know it is just 2 anecdotes, but they are unprecedented in the last 10 years. My "buddy" works for one of the 20 largest shipping companies in the country. If he is seeing 1/3 of the volume, that has VERY broad implications. My company has seen a 50% reduction in small business orders across the board, a pool of about 250 companies throughout Southwest Missouri. So it isn't just 2 dudes. It is our respective companies and all of the customers of those 2 companies. It is fairly widespread or I wouldn't have started the thread.

And here's my original response to those same ignorant comments.

 

[massraider]

I'd probably feel differently if I were in my late 20s, renting an apartment and trying to figure out how I'm supposed to afford a home right now.

People of any age need to lighten up on the 'I must be a homeowner' thing.

 

[Manster]

Where is the economy hurting? I know I keep reading about but it is hard to pinpoint exactly for me.

I have friends in the food, hospitality and hotel business who are killing it right now. The trades and service people around Metro Detroit can`t keep up.

In my business GM is up 21% in third quarter from last year, Ford sold 40K more vehicles in third quarter than last, Stellantis 20K more. Every bar and restaurant I go are always busy no matter the day and in all different areas. Same with Costco, and supermarkets. I know a couple people at the Costco I go to and they said the had their best week ever for a September this year since they have been open. Cant find a house that does not sell in days unless total trash.

I wonder who can afford all this spending? Debt accumulation must be at an all time high right now. Folks are gonna have to pay the piper at some point.

 

[Stoneworker]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Relative to the past 100+ years of BLS data collection, unemployment is currently very low by historical standards. That's just facts based on data.

I'd argue that BLS data is more reliable than your personal feeling about how the economy is doing, but to each their own.

 

[Hawks64]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

 

[Da Guru]

Where is the economy hurting? I know I keep reading about but it is hard to pinpoint exactly for me.

I have friends in the food, hospitality and hotel business who are killing it right now. The trades and service people around Metro Detroit can`t keep up.

In my business GM is up 21% in third quarter from last year, Ford sold 40K more vehicles in third quarter than last, Stellantis 20K more. Every bar and restaurant I go are always busy no matter the day and in all different areas. Same with Costco, and supermarkets. I know a couple people at the Costco I go to and they said the had their best week ever for a September this year since they have been open. Cant find a house that does not sell in days unless total trash.

I wonder who can afford all this spending? Debt accumulation must be at an all time high right now. Folks are gonna have to pay the piper at some point.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter as higher wages from a tight labor market helped to power consumer spending, once again defying dire warnings of a recession that have lingered since 2022.

Gross domestic product increased at a 4.9% annualized rate last quarter, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP growth.

 

[Stoneworker]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

Oh. I don't know. Just facts pulled from the BLS and Federal Reserve Database?

 

[Hawks64]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed. And the places my friends are at are struggling to find people, and it's across broad industries.

 

[MTskibum]

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

I work at a company that has ~100k employees. They have given out 9% worth of cost of living adjustments since beginning of 2020.

Goods have gone up alot more than 9% since that time. The average employee that works where I am at has had significantly reduced buying power.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I like living in reality. And reality is the economy is in extremely good shape overall. It's almost impossible to argue otherwise if you look at the data and eliminate partisanship.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

I mean, honestly, how can you simply accuse everyone else of doing what you are doing?

I'm not doing what you and others are doing - i.e. ignoring the leading economic indicators while saying you don't "feel" like the economy is performing well.

If GDP growth was negative while the rest of the world was flourishing, and the unemployment rate was double digits, but I was claiming that "the economy was booming", I would be doing what you are doing. If those indicators were giving us those readings, I would in fact agree that the economy was in bad shape.

 

[Hawks64]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

Oh. I don't know. Just facts pulled from the BLS and Federal Reserve Database?

Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex

www.bls.gov

That shows growth since 2020

 

[Hawks64]

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

I work at a company that has ~100k employees. They have given out 9% worth of cost of living adjustments since beginning of 2020.

Goods have gone up alot more than 9% since that time. The average employee that works where I am at has had significantly reduced buying power.

Well that sounds like a place I wouldn't be staying at. My wife's company has outpaced inflation since then. My son as well.

 

[MTskibum]

https://www.bls.gov/charts/usual-we...eekly-earnings-over-time-total-men-women.htm#

That shows growth since 2020

The bottom 3 lines are the important ones, and they are down since 2020.

 

[Stoneworker]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

Oh. I don't know. Just facts pulled from the BLS and Federal Reserve Database?

Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex

www.bls.gov

That shows growth since 2020

You're looking at nominal, not real.

Real is the dotted line below. That has declined from $393 to $365 since Q2 2020 for Total

 

[Hawks64]

https://www.bls.gov/charts/usual-we...eekly-earnings-over-time-total-men-women.htm#

That shows growth since 2020

The bottom 3 lines are the important ones, and they are down since 2020.

And it hasn't appreciably changed since 2000

 

[Keerock]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed. And the places my friends are at are struggling to find people, and it's across broad industries.

I guess you don't know me and my wife then...

 

[Hawks64]

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

Where are you getting this from? Both my wife and I have increased since 2020, as well as both of my kids.

Oh. I don't know. Just facts pulled from the BLS and Federal Reserve Database?

Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex

www.bls.gov

That shows growth since 2020

You're looking at nominal, not real.

Real is the dotted line below. That has declined from $393 to $365 since Q2 2020 for Total

And it's not appreciably changed since 2000 up or down.

 

[Hawks64]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed. And the places my friends are at are struggling to find people, and it's across broad industries.

I guess you don't know me and my wife then...

Just illustrating how our personal lens colors everything.

 

[Keerock]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed. And the places my friends are at are struggling to find people, and it's across broad industries.

I guess you don't know me and my wife then...

Just illustrating how our personal lens colors everything.

Yep... and the same can be said for your experience.

 

[Stoneworker]

Real is the dotted line below. That has declined from $393 to $365 since Q2 2020 for Total

And it's not appreciably changed since 2000 up or down.

Lol. And you think that's a good thing?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Bifurcation is absolutely the right word here

The rather large lower class group is living paycheck to paycheck and have watched their purchasing power dwindle greatly over the past 2 years.

... I'd go so far as to say living paycheck-to-paycheck is very much a middle middle class thing right now. You can have a decent home, decent cars out front (with not too bad of financing, even), and be heavily cash-strapped right now. I know "decent" is not a precise definition, but still.

IMHO, if your household can semi-unpainfully sustain three months without wage income, you are de facto upper middle class -- and fairly high upper, bordering on wealthy.

Once again, it all comes down to savings and investment income.

100% this. Due to the rapid increase in cost of goods across the board our individual buying power is far less. What was once considered upper middle class (and probably still is factoring that based solely on income alone) lives exactly like described above. basically paycheck to paycheck. That’s not what upper middle class is supposed to be. Some level of security and comfort are supposed to be coming into play at that point, but with the reduced buying power of today it simply isn’t. So while the “economy“ at the 30,000 foot view maybe be fine, the vast majority of people likely don’t feel as though it is.

Yep. Real average weekly earnings have fallen steadily since mid-2020. Yay economy.

But asset prices have exploded over the same period. Which is a big part of why there is this disconnect where we have an economy where travel and autos etc just continue to smash through all time highs and the biggest problem is that people continue to spend too much money, while simultaneously we have this bucket of people that are struggling to get by.

There are a LOT of people with a LOT of money right now, way more people than usual. But the people at the bottom are getting really hurt. The fed got overconfident in inflation remaining sticky-low and caved to pressure to protect asset prices and lost site of its mandate. That's why I've said many times in the FFA that rates are going to remain high WAY longer than people anticipate because the fed, if anything, is going to overcorrect in the other direction regardless of whether it brings the over-inflated stock or housing markets down with it. Markets that are over-inflated in the first place because they let themselves be pressured into protecting those markets at the expense of the very things their mandate obligates them to protect.

Though to be fair to the fed, they were coerced/pressured into a lot of it, by a lot of the same folks most vocal about the results of it.

 

[Hawks64]

GDP Growth in Q3: 4.9%

Economy continues to be in shambles. High GDP growth and low unemployment is apparently a horrible combination.

I don't buy reports of low unemployment. Those calculations must not include everyone who is truly unemployed and/or somehow counts those with multiple jobs twice.

There isn't anything to buy. It's data. The fact is, unemployment is historically low. Even if you think the BLS reporting/data collection is flawed, the unemployment rate is historically low compared to their past measurements.

There is something else at work here, and I think we all know what it is.

Data can be/is manipulated to fit a narrative all the time. I'm a numbers guy, and am convinced statistics are massaged on the regular. There are plenty of resources that say the unemployment numbers "reported" are misleading and/or downright wrong.

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed. And the places my friends are at are struggling to find people, and it's across broad industries.

I guess you don't know me and my wife then...

Just illustrating how our personal lens colors everything.

Yep... and the same can be said for your experience.

Hence my illustration. It's not nearly as good as I think nor as bad as you think. The data is the data. It shows historically low, yet you say it's being manipulated.

 

[Hawks64]

Real is the dotted line below. That has declined from $393 to $365 since Q2 2020 for Total

And it's not appreciably changed since 2000 up or down.

Lol. And you think that's a good thing?

I didn't say it was good or bad. You intimated that it was a new trend, yet it's been fairly static for 20 years.

 

[Stoneworker]

Bifurcation is absolutely the right word here

But asset prices have exploded over the same period. Which is a big part of why there is this disconnect where we have an economy where travel and autos etc just continue to smash through all time highs and the biggest problem is that people continue to spend too much money, while simultaneously we have this bucket of people that are struggling to get by.

There are a LOT of people with a LOT of money right now, way more people than usual. But the people at the bottom are getting really hurt. The fed got overconfident in inflation remaining sticky-low and caved to pressure to protect asset prices and lost site of its mandate. That's why I've said many times in the FFA that rates are going to remain high WAY longer than people anticipate because the fed, if anything, is going to overcorrect in the other direction regardless of whether it brings the over-inflated stock or housing markets down with it. Markets that are over-inflated in the first place because they let themselves be pressured into protecting those markets at the expense of the very things their mandate obligates them to protect.

Oh absolutely. And for at least the past decade or so that has been by design.

Mpls Fed President Neil Kashkari has said many times that they effectively don't care about wealth inequality caused by asset inflation as long as max people are employed. It's the lesser of two evils in their minds.

 

[Stoneworker]

Lol. And you think that's a good thing?

I didn't say it was good or bad. You intimated that it was a new trend, yet it's been fairly static for 20 years.

Then let me clarify. It's bad that real weekly wages have been flat for 20 years.

And it's also bad that real weekly wages have declined for the past three years, which is a strong counterpoint to the simplistic claims that GDP and unemployment are comprehensive metrics of a healthy economy.

 

[-OZ-]

Interesting, no one I know is unemployed or under employed.

my wife is. Trying to get a decent paying job has been a challenge.
Of course the parameters for that job are key - certain hours, an ability to get time off whenever wanted, and work she enjoys. Quite a few people are choosing benefits / non financial reasons to work where they do, but are “underemployed” because of it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

I don't go to Walmart either. There was only one in the Portland area for years way on the other side of the river but it was like the Cantina from Mos Eisley going in there the one time I did. So I hear ya....I just mentioned the price of Corona from there because it was on the innernet. $25+ for a twelve pack of Corona is absurd. I have to think you're getting taken for a ride on that. Do you have Rite-Aid? I get a lot of my beer from there - very cheap prices. Would bet Corona is under $20 there.

FYI, I don't drink Corona and I probably exaggerated slightly but at most of the 7-11/convenience stores and with tax it seems to be well above $20, I do see a couple places on the internet are cheaper. Beer across the board seems a lot more expensive, I remember 12-pack $9.99/$12.99 days on Corona but it's been a long time since I actually bought some

 

[-OZ-]

Then let me clarify. It's bad that real weekly wages have been flat for 20 years.

Explain this please. By real wages we mean adjusted for inflation. Why is it bad that we’re, on average, keeping up with inflation? It would be bad for an individual who never got a real raise, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread had been MOPPED

It needed some cleaning up, some of you act like the price of goods has not gone up astronomically of late
Not you of course GM, but some seem to think things are just fine
You don't buy new cars so I know you're already one of those millionaire next door types



-Disappointed you didn't enjoy my Wal-Mart story

In their defense, you acted like self checkout at Wal-Mart is a big deal, then complained about other people being out of touch.

It is a big deal at Wal-Mart
There was s story about it recently where Wal-Mart admitted they have a real problem with self checkout and were limiting it to folks with less than 10 items
My line looked like a last stop at Costco before the end of the world for some of these people....

I had 2 items, one was a box of Swedish fish, the other was a can of overpriced Penn Tennis balls, the wait just wasn't worth the reward
Tennis balls used to be $2 a can at Wal-Mart, now they are $4 plus tax, they sell them for $5 at the tennis club, I'll just get them there.
I can get a case delivered for $4 a can x24, not saving any money at Wal-Mart, in fact I lose money with the time you have to invest just to get out of there.

 

[Stoneworker]

Then let me clarify. It's bad that real weekly wages have been flat for 20 years.

Explain this please. By real wages we mean adjusted for inflation. Why is it bad that we’re, on average, keeping up with inflation? It would be bad for an individual who never got a real raise, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

Because most people in most countries want their standard of living to increase over time. This is achieved through greater purchasing power afforded by growing real wages.