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US economy thread (1 Viewer)

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Yep that's basically what I meant. I'd only pay more if I were forced to, but I'd be fine with doing so in that scenario if it does truly help US manufacturers.
Wouldn't you paying more for a US made product help US manufacturers regardless of whether you forced to?
 
Yep that's basically what I meant. I'd only pay more if I were forced to, but I'd be fine with doing so in that scenario if it does truly help US manufacturers.
Wouldn't you paying more for a US made product help US manufacturers regardless of whether you forced to?
Yes, so you could say I'm being hypocritical. But it's different when everyone is forced to. Kinda like ... If someone believes his own tax bracket should be higher relative to the other brackets ... he may advocate changing the brackets, but that probably doesn't mean he'll take it upon himself to pay extra taxes, unless the rules are changed so that everyone else has to.
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
 
would never buy a new car unless I were extremely wealthy. I mean, sure, someone has to buy them new and take the depreciation. But it certainly won't be me.

Me neither! I'm 52 and have purchased at least 10 cars in my lifetime. Never ever bought brand new and never ever will. :hifive:
We’re almost 50 and have purchased 7 vehicles total, two new. We still have 3 of them (son #2 still drives our 07 highlander). We drove the odyssey 14 years and will drive our Grand Highlander at least a decade (probably 15 years). We’re not extremely wealthy by any stretch but buying new and keeping them a long time can be a good way to go.

Bought my first new car ever at the age of 50 back in 2022, a Subaru Outback (as required by state law when you move to Oregon).

We drive about 5,000-6,000 miles a year, so planning on that thing lasting me until I’m 70, at which time it might be the only non-autonomous vehicle left on the road.

Are you going to take it to Lilith Fair this summer?

Strangely the radio only plays Sarah McLachlan, Indigo Girls, and Jewel. It's the darndest thing......
Need some Sheryl Crow in that mix
 
I would never buy a new car unless I were extremely wealthy. I mean, sure, someone has to buy them new and take the depreciation. But it certainly won't be me.

I try to keep my cost per mile low and I found I could keep it lower by buying new last few years. The depreciation curve has changed and it is relatively flat. Cars don't lose thousands of dollars when you drive them off the lot anymore(unless you negotiate poorly).

Plus, you don't have any repair/maintenance costs.
For us, a huge part is knowing it’s been properly maintained.
 
Market has taken a beating the past couple days. Wonder if it’s (the market) losing faith in the current economy.
 
Market has taken a beating the past couple days. Wonder if it’s (the market) losing faith in the current economy.
The wall of worry is always there waiting for you to climb it.
I’ve got a decade at minimum until I can retire. That’s at least a couple more rounds on the rollercoaster. Not worried. Just discussing.
Yeah I'm heavily invested in the market and I'm not worried at all. We've all seen dips plenty of times.
 
Even if tariffs made it so that making goods in the USA was more financially viable, it takes time and capital to ramp up a factory. It takes a ton of overhead to bring that factory on line, like hiring and training the workforce. Plus, the supply chain for many finished goods now stretch across the entire world, so many of the inputs of whatever the factory is making also come from tariffed regions (steel, aluminum, semiconductors, plastic resin, etc) . Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes.

Combine those factors with the near daily changes in proposals and enactment and it means that businesses would rather eat some years of tariffs right now rather than move production to the US. Who's to say that the cost distortion caused by tariffs will persist long than a week, a months, a year?

That's not to mention the inherent inflationary nature of import tariffs, plus the probable loss of export business to retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries. Neither of which will help the US economy IMO.
 
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would never buy a new car unless I were extremely wealthy. I mean, sure, someone has to buy them new and take the depreciation. But it certainly won't be me.

Me neither! I'm 52 and have purchased at least 10 cars in my lifetime. Never ever bought brand new and never ever will. :hifive:
We’re almost 50 and have purchased 7 vehicles total, two new. We still have 3 of them (son #2 still drives our 07 highlander). We drove the odyssey 14 years and will drive our Grand Highlander at least a decade (probably 15 years). We’re not extremely wealthy by any stretch but buying new and keeping them a long time can be a good way to go.
53, and have driven 5 cars over my lifetime, the first of which I totaled within a month of driving. Two of those I purchased new, and my current vehicle is 19 years old.

Unfortunately, the turbo just died, so was planning on getting an EV. Was contemplating new, but definitely thinking used now.
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
OK. What is this belief based in then? What makes you say business in general is "great"?
 
Combine those factors with the near daily changes in proposals and enactment and it means that businesses would rather eat some years of tariffs right now rather than move production to the US. Who's to say that the cost distortion caused by tariffs will persist long than a week, a months, a year?
I work with a lot of multinational businesses (on a medium-sized scale, not like F500 types), and anecdotally this is the main takeaway that I'm hearing right now from business owners. It's still a priority for them to be in the US market, but rather than immediately shifting production from <foreign country> to the US, they're expecting to just eat a portion of the cost of the tariffs to keep their prices competitive. Basically taking a chunk out of their own bottom-line to subsidize US buyers, at least for the time being. May sound like a benefit to Americans on the surface, but many of these companies have US employees and US ownership, so it's a muddled end result.

Specifically locally on the US/Canada border, I am hearing some good things about a lot of vacant warehouses and third-party logistics companies getting interest from Canadian manufacturers. Not to manufacture goods in the US, but to store inventory - rather than shipping from your warehouse in Canada to a US-based customer, and having the US-based customer pay the tariff, they're considering renting a warehouse or paying a 3PL provider to store the inventory in the US. This would allow the Canadian company (or more likely their US subsidiary/sister company) to pay the tariff on import, eat a portion of the cost, store the goods in the US, and then sell to the US customer without the customer having to pay the tariff. Could be a positive for local commercial warehouse real estate, I suppose.

Still early times with a lot of uncertainty though.
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
OK. What is this belief based in then? What makes you say business in general is "great"?
Belief that tariffs will make America stronger? Not based in much. I don't know if it will or not. But if it does, I'm for it.

I like business because it provides consumers with goods or services while making money for the owner at the same time. And business here makes us less reliant on business elsewhere.
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
OK. What is this belief based in then? What makes you say business in general is "great"?
Belief that tariffs will make America stronger? Not based in much. I don't know if it will or not. But if it does, I'm for it.

I like business because it provides consumers with goods or services while making money for the owner at the same time. And business here makes us less reliant on business elsewhere.
No belief that "business in general is great, large and small". Curious how long you've held this view that its generally great.
 
Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
You’re right, but some of us think protecting the environment is important
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
OK. What is this belief based in then? What makes you say business in general is "great"?
Belief that tariffs will make America stronger? Not based in much. I don't know if it will or not. But if it does, I'm for it.

I like business because it provides consumers with goods or services while making money for the owner at the same time. And business here makes us less reliant on business elsewhere.
No belief that "business in general is great, large and small". Curious how long you've held this view that its generally great.
As long as I can remember 🤷‍♂️
 
Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
The construction process will always take more time here due to local codes and the litigious nature of our society. Other countries move faster because there's less time spent on CYA and legal.
 
Private employers added just 77,000 jobs in February, far below expectations, ADP says

“Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

I think employers, like consumers, are going to take a hard look at their budget and expectations for at least the 1st half of 2025.
 
Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
You’re right, but some of us think protecting the environment is important
I'm one of them.

Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
The construction process will always take more time here due to local codes and the litigious nature of our society. Other countries move faster because there's less time spent on CYA and legal.
It's true now, but there's a concentrated push to eliminate a lot of these barriers. I have seen copycat state and local legislative efforts across several states looking to remove a lot of these barriers because it's tangentially related to my work. It hasn't taken hold yet, but the effort is there.
 
I don’t think most of the public understands how badly tariffs will hurt the economy.
I know nothing about economics. But to my naive understanding, they seem like a good idea. You make money off of imports and encourage manufacturers who have moved out of country to move back and make things here.
People here will need to pay more. We’ll see if companies actually come back, or go elsewhere where the tariffs aren’t in effect. You’d almost need a tariff on every country large enough to make producing products stateside cost effective.
I'm more than willing to pay more if it makes America stronger.
In your view what drives American "strength"? Most will say "the middle class and small businesses". Is that your answer?
I have no idea. Like I said, I don't know economics. Business in general is great, large and small.
OK. What is this belief based in then? What makes you say business in general is "great"?
Belief that tariffs will make America stronger? Not based in much. I don't know if it will or not. But if it does, I'm for it.

I like business because it provides consumers with goods or services while making money for the owner at the same time. And business here makes us less reliant on business elsewhere.
No belief that "business in general is great, large and small". Curious how long you've held this view that its generally great.
As long as I can remember 🤷‍♂️
What a weird string lol
 
Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
You’re right, but some of us think protecting the environment is important
it was here before us and it will be here after us and it has always amazed me that people think their little ride on this rock is anything more than a meaningless blip in the face of it and that even worse some think their little tenure here between the eternities is so important that they can do whatever they want to it take that to the bank brochachos
 
would never buy a new car unless I were extremely wealthy. I mean, sure, someone has to buy them new and take the depreciation. But it certainly won't be me.

Me neither! I'm 52 and have purchased at least 10 cars in my lifetime. Never ever bought brand new and never ever will. :hifive:
We’re almost 50 and have purchased 7 vehicles total, two new. We still have 3 of them (son #2 still drives our 07 highlander). We drove the odyssey 14 years and will drive our Grand Highlander at least a decade (probably 15 years). We’re not extremely wealthy by any stretch but buying new and keeping them a long time can be a good way to go.

Bought my first new car ever at the age of 50 back in 2022, a Subaru Outback (as required by state law when you move to Oregon).

We drive about 5,000-6,000 miles a year, so planning on that thing lasting me until I’m 70, at which time it might be the only non-autonomous vehicle left on the road.

Are you going to take it to Lilith Fair this summer?

Strangely the radio only plays Sarah McLachlan, Indigo Girls, and Jewel. It's the darndest thing......
Lilith Fair, lol. If you know, you know.
 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

The way they structure the "tax cuts" is done to achieve specifically this.
 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

"Extracted"? Meaning what?
 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

Ugh. That's so gross.
 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

"Extracted"? Meaning what?
I assume it means that the $79 trillion in wealth gain came from the bottom 90%

Its a zero-sum game - for someone to make that kind of money someone(s) have to spend that kind of money.
 
Also, the USA has relatively high labor costs, relatively strong environmental protections, and very long permitting and construction processes

I agree with what you wrote, but these things have the potential to change pretty dramatically, especially the environmental protections, based on political stuff.
You’re right, but some of us think protecting the environment is important
But you aren’t making/changing policy.
 
I think the largest problems in our economy stem from practices and policies that continue to allow this to happen.

"Extracted"? Meaning what?
I assume it means that the $79 trillion in wealth gain came from the bottom 90%

Its a zero-sum game - for someone to make that kind of money someone(s) have to spend that kind of money.
So, not necessarily directly. But the net gains and losses come out that that way. But wait, what does that mean exactly? Wouldn't gaining massive amounts of money be precisely how you got into the 1%? Or does this mean the people who were already in the top 1% in 1975 have since gained that amount more?
 
I wonder if you can measure productivity losses by business that are caused by on again/off again policies.

My company has spent a huge amount of time scenario planning. Only to not use the scenario.

Maybe.
Wait and see.
Then meet about it again next month.
 
I wonder if you can measure productivity losses by business that are caused by on again/off again policies.

My company has spent a huge amount of time scenario planning. Only to not use the scenario.

Maybe.
Wait and see.
Then meet about it again next month.
First week of the month is always industry call for US and then North America. I was asked for more scenario options when we meet again in April. I'll take the job security.
 
This on again off again tariff thing is kind of embarrassing at this point. Even the stock market is rolling its eyes.
There are many businesses that have to undergo scenario planning and preparation for these tariffs only to have them paused and then reinstated a few weeks later and then paused and then reinstated….

It seems terribly inefficient for US businesses.

I don’t think the tariffs are a good idea, but I’d rather we go forward with them than to keep bouncing back and forth. Let the businesses and the market adjust.
 
I don’t think the tariffs are a good idea

Targeted tariffs for specific industries or products make a lot of sense. Blanket country tariffs are a disaster, for everyone - but especially consumers.

We have had the worlds largest economy for 100+ years. But we will never be the king of manufacturing again. That world doesn’t exist anymore, we shifted to a service based economy of necessity - that’s where we excel. Trying to return something we were 40-50 years ago is insanity. We don’t have a workforce that can ever again be the low cost provider.
 
This on again off again tariff thing is kind of embarrassing at this point. Even the stock market is rolling its eyes.
There are many businesses that have to undergo scenario planning and preparation for these tariffs only to have them paused and then reinstated a few weeks later and then paused and then reinstated….

It seems terribly inefficient for US businesses.

I don’t think the tariffs are a good idea, but I’d rather we go forward with them than to keep bouncing back and forth. Let the businesses and the market adjust.
We are struggling with this now. It is a lot of work, we had a bunch of plans in motion. Should we continue with those plans. If we do and tariffs come we will be covered.

If tariffs end up never happening we wasted a lot of time and money.

Need to shake up the magic 8 ball I guess. 🎱
 
I don’t think the tariffs are a good idea

Targeted tariffs for specific industries or products make a lot of sense. Blanket country tariffs are a disaster, for everyone - but especially consumers.

We have had the worlds largest economy for 100+ years. But we will never be the king of manufacturing again. That world doesn’t exist anymore, we shifted to a service based economy of necessity - that’s where we excel. Trying to return something we were 40-50 years ago is insanity. We don’t have a workforce that can ever again be the low cost provider.
Plus, 40-50 years ago, the low-cost providers had terrible infrastructure and insufficient technical workforce to take over the manufacturing. Japan also moved out from being a low-cost supply base to not being able to compete in most mass manufacturing industries. Simply put, we got richer, and poorer countries developed enough to take over. That's not gonna change, nor should we want it to change.
 
Jobs reports are always backward-looking, in that they reflect data collected weeks earlier. But todays really feels like a look back at an earlier era, before all the disruptions of the past few weeks.
 
I don’t think the tariffs are a good idea

Targeted tariffs for specific industries or products make a lot of sense. Blanket country tariffs are a disaster, for everyone - but especially consumers.

We have had the worlds largest economy for 100+ years. But we will never be the king of manufacturing again. That world doesn’t exist anymore, we shifted to a service based economy of necessity - that’s where we excel. Trying to return something we were 40-50 years ago is insanity. We don’t have a workforce that can ever again be the low cost provider.
Plus, 40-50 years ago, the low-cost providers had terrible infrastructure and insufficient technical workforce to take over the manufacturing. Japan also moved out from being a low-cost supply base to not being able to compete in most mass manufacturing industries. Simply put, we got richer, and poorer countries developed enough to take over. That's not gonna change, nor should we want it to change.
So the $36 billion in federal money spent on the CHIPS act of 2022 was "insanity" and should be clawed back because it supported domestic manufacturing?

How about the 2023 BEAD program that required 90% of broadband equipment be domestically produced?

Perhaps the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act requiring EV's have final assembly in the U.S. to qualify for tax credit should be repealed?

At least let's be consistent
 
I was speaking about broad-based manufacturing, not specific segments. Also, the CHIPS and BEAD programs weren't really intended to bring manufacturing writ large back to the USA. They were intended to lessen the dependence on foreign made components for critical national security (military and economic) reasons. Huawei and ZTE were likely lower cost than Qualcomm, etc. but there was national security risks. These acts sought to break some of the supply chain links that led to China.

There are reasons other than bottom line economics for making such requirements.
 
I was speaking about broad-based manufacturing, not specific segments. Also, the CHIPS and BEAD programs weren't really intended to bring manufacturing writ large back to the USA. They were intended to lessen the dependence on foreign made components for critical national security (military and economic) reasons. Huawei and ZTE were likely lower cost than Qualcomm, etc. but there was national security risks. These acts sought to break some of the supply chain links that led to China.

There are reasons other than bottom line economics for making such requirements.
Doesn't matter. It's all industrial policy. And once that seal is broken, what becomes "strategic" is entirely subjective
 
I was speaking about broad-based manufacturing, not specific segments. Also, the CHIPS and BEAD programs weren't really intended to bring manufacturing writ large back to the USA. They were intended to lessen the dependence on foreign made components for critical national security (military and economic) reasons. Huawei and ZTE were likely lower cost than Qualcomm, etc. but there was national security risks. These acts sought to break some of the supply chain links that led to China.

There are reasons other than bottom line economics for making such requirements.
Doesn't matter. It's all industrial policy. And once that seal is broken, what becomes "strategic" is entirely subjective
OK, I get that.

But blanket tariffs as as industrial policy is WAAAAAAY more destructive and affects orders of magnitude more commerce than tax breaks for setting up semiconductor plants, or the prohibition on certain sectors using certain items built outside the US.
 
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