Value of #1 Waivers (1 Viewer)

[Pearl Frumpkin]

So this question is for those leagues that use a rolling waiver system (once you make a waiver claim you go to the last position. Does not reset every week.).

When should you use the #1 waiver priority? In an ideal world, there would be a player that would be an every down starter on a good team for the rest of the year. But those players seem to come along only once every few years (but maybe I am wrong). What about a starter for a few weeks? Or even one week with a plus matchup? I have no statistics to back this up, but it seems that waivers have diminishing returns as the year goes on.

So this week a lot of us are faced with this dilemma. There are a bunch of players that could score big for a few weeks but then go back to the bench (Hillman/Anderson, Oliver, Williams). Are they worth using the #1 waiver claim on and risking missing a rest of season stud?

 

[Chapelboy]

We use the rolling year long system. I started at the bottom after week 1, in 16th, and gradually have moved up to the 3 hole this week. My experience is as you said, there are a flurry of moves early in the season, but especially so this year due to the rash of injuries. Lots of different factors to consider though, such as a 12-team league has more FA talent available than a 16-teamer. Another consideration would be dynasty vs. redraft. My dynasty league shows a pattern of picking up guys late in the year whom they think can make a difference the following season, irrelevant in redraft.

I do agree that there seems to be diminishing returns on pickups later in the year unless there is a catastrophic injury or a QB benching.

I think I would have no problem burning a #1 waiver this week on Branden Oliver simply because IMO he is a real threat to Ryan Mathews' long term viability. I watched the game and IMO he is more than a flash in the pan.

 

[We Tigers]

As with everything, it depends. If you've got a lot of guys on bye the next couple of weeks or have a losing record right now, then it absolutely makes sense to use it on a guy like Oliver, who has a good shot at significantly increasing your chances right now. We're far enough into the year that there aren't going to be too many better picks as the week's roll on. In FAAB I could see using half your budget on him. If you're 4-1 but your receivers have been disappointing (think Colston, Roddy, Patterson, etc.) it's probably worth using it on a guy like Beckham, who could be an every-week improvement for you down the stretch.

It strikes me as pretty rare for there to be clear-cut, can't-miss waiver pickups, like you say. A true midseason top-12 player at his position like Stacy last year doesn't happen often.

 

[Pearl Frumpkin]

It strikes me as pretty rare for there to be clear-cut, can't-miss waiver pickups, like you say. A true midseason top-12 player at his position like Stacy last year doesn't happen often.

This brings up a question. When Stacy hit the wire last year would you have used the #1 waiver on him? One of the downsides of having the top waiver spot is you are less apt to take a chance on a guy that *might* take off (compared to having the #5 waiver).

This is a topic that is really hard to find data on. But I wonder how often a clear cut top player becomes available mid season?

 

[Warhogs]

A lot of things to factor in. That #1 priority can be a curse because you pass by a lot of good players. It might depend on how needy you are at a position and how tight of a battle you are in for a playoff spot. I am up to #2 in a league where I started horribly. I may burn that spot this week because I need wins now.

 

[Phenomena]

Use it or lose it. Especailly in a 16-team league, the waiver wire is already garbage. If there are potential 2-week studs out there like Andre Williams, Brandon Oliver, and perhaps one of Hillman/Anderson, blow it and take the better chance to win a few games.

I've waited in my 12-teamer and am now #2 (started #12) but will be blowing it on Williams and Oliver in that order. If they help me win even one game in the next two weeks they are grossly worth the pick.

 

[tangfoot]

Waiting is useless, and potentially removes good starters from your grasp while you are strategically holding on to it.

If there's someone out there I think can improve my team, I put in a claim. It doesn't matter if I'm #1 or #12.

But don't be stupid and use it on a kicker or defense!

 

[Air Stich]

The #1 waiver priority is usually way over-rated. Use it, use it, use it.

 

[Chapelboy]

The #1 waiver priority is usually way over-rated. Use it, use it, use it.

which leads me to ask: does anyone play in any league or know of one whereby waiver slots can be traded like a draft pick? I would imagine some folks might be desperate during the season enough to want to trade something to move up in the order...

 

[Warhogs]

The #1 waiver priority is usually way over-rated. Use it, use it, use it.

which leads me to ask: does anyone play in any league or know of one whereby waiver slots can be traded like a draft pick? I would imagine some folks might be desperate during the season enough to want to trade something to move up in the order...

Even if you can't trade the waiver you can usually agree to a trade and then make the claim and trade the claimed player.

 

[chinawildman]

The #1 waiver priority is usually way over-rated. Use it, use it, use it.

I agree. In fact for me to even reach #1 waiver priority, I will have likely already missed on some guys. Then by "saving" it, I will likely miss more guys. Eventually you'll likely use the #1 waiver for a pressing reason like a bye week or injury and wind up with a mediocre pickup anyway.

Not worth it. The way I see it if you see someone on the wire that can improve your team and you think it will take a waiver claim to get him, pull the trigger.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Plenty of great players so far worthy of the #1.

I never hold on to it long - use it early and it will eventually come back around during the season, maybe more than once.

 

[Air Stich]

Add in the fact that this game is supposed to be fun. Get in there and mix it up instead of sitting on your hands waiting for that magical RB1 pickup that's going to save your season.

 

[FUBAR]

The #1 waiver priority is usually way over-rated. Use it, use it, use it.

which leads me to ask: does anyone play in any league or know of one whereby waiver slots can be traded like a draft pick? I would imagine some folks might be desperate during the season enough to want to trade something to move up in the order...

although it's not rolling - so the same team has had it a few weeks now.

The pick has usually (over the years) gone for a 5th-6th round pick except the first week where its value can be a 1st like this year for Hurns, or a 3rd for Marlon Brown last year

 

[Milkman]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

 

[Warhogs]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

This is the circumstance where I might hold that waiver. If you are cruising to the playoffs it may be more valuable if you get stung by injury in the playoffs.

 

[Phenomena]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

This is the circumstance where I might hold that waiver. If you are cruising to the playoffs it may be more valuable if you get stung by injury in the playoffs.

I disagree. Oliver is likely to be the hottest waiver wire pick-up all year, especially in PPR. I'm not saying he's a sure-fire player, but his value will never be higher than it is right now. People are looking at the 30-point performance against one of the best run defenses in the league and two RBs hurt, and they are seeing $$.

I would definitely pick up him then immediately flip him (and maybe another solid player) for one better player. If I was 1-4 I would certainly entertain trading away someone like Marshall for Oliver + ~WR2. You could dramatically improve your team with a trade.

Even if you don't "need" him or can't trade him, how do you let a stud RB (even if only for two weeks) get picked up by someone else? You could lose one of your RBs tomorrow for all you know, and you're letting other teams get better. Seems asinine not to use a high waiver pick on him because you think something MIGHT be better down the road.

 

[BigBlue_RI]

I had the #2 waiver spot in my league, and burned it on Lorenzo Talliafero a couple of weeks ago. Wound up not using him, and now I am down at #10 and because I opted to do a wait and see on Beckham and Oliver, I likely won't get either. You use that pick when time is right, and as season gets older, that window starts to shut on quality of player you're gonna get. I think the key is to try to take fliers on guys after waivers runs. I promised myself i would do that this year, and haven't stuck to it. What sucks for me is my league limits us to 3 pickups a week, so we have to be careful when we make our decisions.

 

[Leonidas]

I use the #### out of my waiver claims.

FAAB (blind bidding) is where it's at anyway.

We're heading into week 6. If there is something you WANT, use that #1 claim.

 

[Bojang0301]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

Got me... then sell him if thats your opinion or else you arn't very good at this.

 

[Milkman]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

Got me... then sell him if thats your opinion or else you arn't very good at this.

Very few trades in this league.......

 

[Bojang0301]

5-0 right now with the #1 WW priority and have no idea what to do. I could use Oliver but his value is 0 in two weeks..............

Got me... then sell him if thats your opinion or else you arn't very good at this.

Very few trades in this league.......

Ok so it wasn't a fish... tough call. Personally, I'm not sure I wouldn't want Andre Williams if I had the #1 waiver. Maybe you could package it with a middling player for an upgrade even with the minimal trades.

 

[need2know]

Heres an interesting one. I got moved up to #2 in the ww order today. I need a qb cause brees is on a bye. Kapernick got dropped today. I know there are a couple more teams that need a qb. Do I burn my high pick for a player I most likely only use this week? Or do I wait to see if anyone uses a waiver on him and try to get him on sat for free? If I miss with kap I could get davis, Tannehill, or hoyer. am a heavy underdog this week but you never know how Sundays shake out

 

[Chapelboy]

Heres an interesting one. I got moved up to #2 in the ww order today. I need a qb cause brees is on a bye. Kapernick got dropped today. I know there are a couple more teams that need a qb. Do I burn my high pick for a player I most likely only use this week? Or do I wait to see if anyone uses a waiver on him and try to get him on sat for free? If I miss with kap I could get davis, Tannehill, or hoyer. am a heavy underdog this week but you never know how Sundays shake out

Dont' forget Orton if he's available. Matchup against the Pats isn't exactly a death sentence.

 

[FUBAR]

Heres an interesting one. I got moved up to #2 in the ww order today. I need a qb cause brees is on a bye. Kapernick got dropped today. I know there are a couple more teams that need a qb. Do I burn my high pick for a player I most likely only use this week? Or do I wait to see if anyone uses a waiver on him and try to get him on sat for free? If I miss with kap I could get davis, Tannehill, or hoyer. am a heavy underdog this week but you never know how Sundays shake out

Don't like Davis vs. SF; but don't love Kap against St. Louis either.

Tanny vs, GB could be alright for a week as could Hoyer vs. Pitt.

Worst case - if Brees got injured later in the year, would you feel much better starting Kap all year instead of Hoyer/Tannehill? I would, but would you even keep him past this week?

 

[need2know]

Heres an interesting one. I got moved up to #2 in the ww order today. I need a qb cause brees is on a bye. Kapernick got dropped today. I know there are a couple more teams that need a qb. Do I burn my high pick for a player I most likely only use this week? Or do I wait to see if anyone uses a waiver on him and try to get him on sat for free? If I miss with kap I could get davis, Tannehill, or hoyer. am a heavy underdog this week but you never know how Sundays shake out

Don't like Davis vs. SF; but don't love Kap against St. Louis either.

Tanny vs, GB could be alright for a week as could Hoyer vs. Pitt.

Worst case - if Brees got injured later in the year, would you feel much better starting Kap all year instead of Hoyer/Tannehill? I would, but would you even keep him past this week?

Someone just dropped big ben as well. I think I will save my ww spot and hope to get either kap or ben for free on sat

 

[jurrassic]

Have that issue this week. Thinking about using the #1 waiver on Sankey. Not sure if he's worth it. It's the whole "what if" scenario of someone getting injured this week and a true "stud" opportunity opening up.

 

[Air Stich]

I've been playing in 10+ leagues a year for a while now.

Trust me, I've learned a few things about fantasy football:

STOP HOLDING ON TO YOUR WAIVER!!!!

 

[Tool]

Have that issue this week. Thinking about using the #1 waiver on Sankey. Not sure if he's worth it. It's the whole "what if" scenario of someone getting injured this week and a true "stud" opportunity opening up.

When was the last time that happened? where someone got hurt, and a stud replacement was identified right away and went on to be a stud. has it happened this year? Last? i'm really wondering.

 

[jurrassic]

Have that issue this week. Thinking about using the #1 waiver on Sankey. Not sure if he's worth it. It's the whole "what if" scenario of someone getting injured this week and a true "stud" opportunity opening up.

When was the last time that happened? where someone got hurt, and a stud replacement was identified right away and went on to be a stud. has it happened this year? Last? i'm really wondering.

Oliver, Forsett and Sanu are close this year. Stacy last year, along with Jeffrey, Foles and Allen. Vick and Spiller in other years. Those are off the top of my head

 

[Tool]

Have that issue this week. Thinking about using the #1 waiver on Sankey. Not sure if he's worth it. It's the whole "what if" scenario of someone getting injured this week and a true "stud" opportunity opening up.

When was the last time that happened? where someone got hurt, and a stud replacement was identified right away and went on to be a stud. has it happened this year? Last? i'm really wondering.

Oliver, Forsett and Sanu are close this year. Stacy last year, along with Jeffrey, Foles and Allen. Vick and Spiller in other years. Those are off the top of my head

this year, none of those guys are really close to studs by my definition of the term. those guys you mentioned last year did not pop up one week on the waiver wire as the clear #1. They could have been grabbed in a number of weeks and easily could have been had without the #1 waiver. Vick and spiller probably fall in that category too although i really don't remember specifically.