Value of Future Picks in a new startup Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Where does the value lye for those future 1st?

Like for those that always wanna use the analyzers to attempt to make an even'd out deal.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

It really depends on the team. In initial drafts, after a few rounds I try to figure out which are the weak teams and then I make offers to them ot acquire their future first rounders.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Since you're in a new league, equate where the 6th or 7th rookie would be picked this year, then add 3-4 rounds.

I've seen valuations between 5th and 14th and all in between.

I'd peg an average first to be around a 9th or 10th in a startup (say pick 100-110 or so).

If you think the team you're trading with is going to have a bad draft or plan for the future, the '07 pick is worth more. That's moving in the 6th-8th round value. If he is a solid Shark and will likely be in the playoffs, it is worth less. That's 11th-14th.

 

[coolnerd]

Since you're in a new league, equate where the 6th or 7th rookie would be picked this year, then add 3-4 rounds.

I've seen valuations between 5th and 14th and all in between.

I'd peg an average first to be around a 9th or 10th in a startup (say pick 100-110 or so).

If you think the team you're trading with is going to have a bad draft or plan for the future, the '07 pick is worth more.  That's moving in the 6th-8th round value.  If he is a solid Shark and will likely be in the playoffs, it is worth less.  That's 11th-14th.

Well, that makes me feel better about trading my 14th rounder for a 2007 1st.

 

[trader jake]

2.01-2.12 draft pick [ 4 ] [33.33%] 3.01-3.12 draft pick [ 1 ] [8.33%] 4.01-4.12 draft pick [ 2 ] [16.67%]

the veterans that can be drafted with picks in rounds 2-4 of inaugural drafts are more valuable than a 1st round rookie selection the following year. by trading away an extra early round selection you are also increasing the odds that the other team will be a contender...and dropping the potential value of that 1st round pick you acquired from them in next years drafti voted round six. the crapshoot begins in round 5 (where players become interchangeable and large tiers of similar players are available) but the value for this type of trade still isn't really there until round 6just my 2 cents

 

[trader jake]

Well, that makes me feel better about trading my 14th rounder for a 2007 1st.

that is a steal. even if the pick lands in the bottom half of round 1 next season...that's highway robbery. congrats

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I voted a 9th, and I want to be in virtually everyone else's league based on these results.

 

[EBF]

Look at the rough ADP of where some of this year's top rookies are going in 12 team leagues:

Reggie Bush - 1st-2nd round

Laurence Maroney - 3rd-5th round

DeAngelo Williams - 3rd-5th round

Joseph Addai - 3rd-5th round

LenDale White - 4th-6th round

Vernon Davis - 6th-8th round round

Matt Leinart - 8th-11th round

Vince Young - 8th-11th round

Jay Cutler - 8th-11th round

Chad Jackson - 9th-11th round

Santonio Holmes - 9th-11th round

Marcedes Lewis - 12th-14th round

That averages out to about a 7th round pick, which was actually my initial answer in the poll.

Personally, I'd say a random first round pick is roughly equivalent in value to pick 6.05 in a 12 team initial draft. But, as always with draft picks, it really depends on the guy making the selection. Good owners make the most of their picks. Bad owners don't.

 

[trader jake]

I voted a 9th, and I want to be in virtually everyone else's league based on these results.

i can't believe that owners would actually give up their 2nd round pick in an inaugural draft in exchange for a 1st rounder the following year i realize owners run their dynasty teams using many different strategies, but that type of trade makes no sense

 

[trader jake]

Look at the rough ADP of where some of this year's top rookies are going in 12 team leagues:

Reggie Bush - 1st-2nd round

Laurence Maroney - 3rd-5th round

DeAngelo Williams - 3rd-5th round

Joseph Addai - 3rd-5th round

LenDale White - 4th-6th round

Vernon Davis - 6th-8th round round

Matt Leinart - 8th-11th round

Vince Young - 8th-11th round

Jay Cutler - 8th-11th round

Chad Jackson - 9th-11th round

Santonio Holmes - 9th-11th round

Marcedes Lewis - 12th-14th round

That averages out to about a 7th round pick, which was actually my initial answer in the poll.

Personally, I'd say a random first round pick is roughly equivalent in value to pick 6.05 in a 12 team initial draft. But, as always with draft picks, it really depends on the guy making the selection. Good owners make the most of their picks. Bad owners don't.

this is about where i have the value as well. i would trade my 6th round pick for a 1st the following year, but i would not trade my 5th for that pick (i might hedge a bit and be tempted to trade a 5th if it falls lower in the round and/or i feel the GM i'm making the trade with in unlikely to field a contending team that season based on history or his first few draft selections)

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Look at the rough ADP of where some of this year's top rookies are going in 12 team leagues:

Reggie Bush - 1st-2nd round

Laurence Maroney - 3rd-5th round

DeAngelo Williams - 3rd-5th round

Joseph Addai - 3rd-5th round

LenDale White - 4th-6th round

Vernon Davis - 6th-8th round round

Matt Leinart - 8th-11th round

Vince Young - 8th-11th round

Jay Cutler - 8th-11th round

Chad Jackson - 9th-11th round

Santonio Holmes - 9th-11th round

Marcedes Lewis - 12th-14th round

That averages out to about a 7th round pick, which was actually my initial answer in the poll.

Personally, I'd say a random first round pick is roughly equivalent in value to pick 6.05 in a 12 team initial draft. But, as always with draft picks, it really depends on the guy making the selection. Good owners make the most of their picks. Bad owners don't.

this is about where i have the value as well. i would trade my 6th round pick for a 1st the following year, but i would not trade my 5th for that pick (i might hedge a bit and be tempted to trade a 5th if it falls lower in the round and/or i feel the GM i'm making the trade with in unlikely to field a contending team that season based on history or his first few draft selections)

Keep in mind that roster sizes do affect this decision.In the league I was just drafting in, it was 1 QB, 1 RB, 1WR, 1 TE, and 3 Flex (RB/WR/TE). That's 7 starters.

I would not want to trade inside of that window personally (First 7 picks) as a rough guideline.

 

[Couch Potato]

We just completed an initial 14-team dynasty draft which included rookies. The top 14 rookies (which would be 1st round rookie picks if held separately) went as follows:

1.03 (#3 overall)

3.07 (35)

3.14 (42)

4.01 (43)

4.04 (46)

4.12 (54)

8.01 (99)

9.01 (113)

9.02 (114)

9.07 (119)

9.14 (126)

10.01 (127)

10.07 (133)

10.10 (136)

Making a really rough assumption that this is a typical year (just because I don't want to think any harder than that) and another rough assumption that you will have an equal chance of getting each 2007 draft slot, the average of the above 14 picks is pick 85, or pick 7.01. In a 12-team league, the average of the first 12 picks above is about pick 77, or pick 7.05.

So, let's say that if we're talking about 2006 and the above draft is typical, the "average" 1st round rookie pick is worth a mid 7th rounder in an initial dynasty draft. Let's say pick value is akin to monetary value. What's the discount factor for delaying a year? Do you expect a 10% rate? 20%? 30%? 50% even? The importance placed on now vs. later varies a good deal among people, and has to do with drafting style / player mix in the initial dynasty draft you are having, but the fact is the pick dropoff is a lot less than people think even at high discount rates. I'll illustrate.

I go to the FBG pick value calculator and find that pick 77 (7.05) is worth 341 points. The pick which is worth 20% less is pick 84, at 284 points (341 / 1.2 = 284). Pick 84 in a 12-teamer is pick 7.12. That's just 7 spots lower than the pick is worth in 2006. At a 30% discount, we're looking at pick 87 or 8.03, just 10 picks later than the comparable 2006 pick. Even a 50% discount from this year's pick 77 is right about pick 92 or 8.08, not much more than a round worse than the 2006 value.

This tells me that the average 2007 1st round rookie pick, without knowing what slot it will be in next year, and assuming the draft I was just in was typical, is worth somewhere around and early- to mid-8th round 2006 initial dynasty pick today.

 

[Couch Potato]

Look at the rough ADP of where some of this year's top rookies are going in 12 team leagues:

Reggie Bush - 1st-2nd round

Laurence Maroney - 3rd-5th round

DeAngelo Williams - 3rd-5th round

Joseph Addai - 3rd-5th round

LenDale White - 4th-6th round

Vernon Davis - 6th-8th round round

Matt Leinart - 8th-11th round

Vince Young - 8th-11th round

Jay Cutler - 8th-11th round

Chad Jackson - 9th-11th round

Santonio Holmes - 9th-11th round

Marcedes Lewis - 12th-14th round

That averages out to about a 7th round pick, which was actually my initial answer in the poll.

Personally, I'd say a random first round pick is roughly equivalent in value to pick 6.05 in a 12 team initial draft. But, as always with draft picks, it really depends on the guy making the selection. Good owners make the most of their picks. Bad owners don't.

Very comparable to what I just came up with from our recent draft, with the year's discount in the neighborhood of an additional round.

 

[-OZ-]

I assume 6 people or more misread the question, thinking it was a 06 rookie pick instead of an overall pick.

 

[Couch Potato]

We just completed an initial 14-team dynasty draft which included rookies. The top 14 rookies (which would be 1st round rookie picks if held separately) went as follows:

1.03 (#3 overall)

3.07 (35)

3.14 (42)

4.01 (43)

4.04 (46)

4.12 (54)

8.01 (99)

9.01 (113)

9.02 (114)

9.07 (119)

9.14 (126)

10.01 (127)

10.07 (133)

10.10 (136)

Making a really rough assumption that this is a typical year (just because I don't want to think any harder than that) and another rough assumption that you will have an equal chance of getting each 2007 draft slot, the average of the above 14 picks is pick 85, or pick 7.01. In a 12-team league, the average of the first 12 picks above is about pick 77, or pick 7.05.

So, let's say that if we're talking about 2006 and the above draft is typical, the "average" 1st round rookie pick is worth a mid 7th rounder in an initial dynasty draft. Let's say pick value is akin to monetary value. What's the discount factor for delaying a year? Do you expect a 10% rate? 20%? 30%? 50% even? The importance placed on now vs. later varies a good deal among people, and has to do with drafting style / player mix in the initial dynasty draft you are having, but the fact is the pick dropoff is a lot less than people think even at high discount rates. I'll illustrate.

I go to the FBG pick value calculator and find that pick 77 (7.05) is worth 341 points. The pick which is worth 20% less is pick 84, at 284 points (341 / 1.2 = 284). Pick 84 in a 12-teamer is pick 7.12. That's just 7 spots lower than the pick is worth in 2006. At a 30% discount, we're looking at pick 87 or 8.03, just 10 picks later than the comparable 2006 pick. Even a 50% discount from this year's pick 77 is right about pick 92 or 8.08, not much more than a round worse than the 2006 value.

This tells me that the average 2007 1st round rookie pick, without knowing what slot it will be in next year, and assuming the draft I was just in was typical, is worth somewhere around and early- to mid-8th round 2006 initial dynasty pick today.

I just took another look at my work above and thought about looking at it from a pick value standpoint rather than just taking the mean average of the 12 picks. Instead of them averaging out to pick 77, I came up with the following using the pick value calculator:1.08 (8) 1485 points

3.07 (35) 759 points

3.14 (42) 671 points

4.01 (43) 660 points

4.04 (46) 627 points

4.12 (54) 547 points

8.01 (99) 179 points

9.01 (113) 111 points

9.02 (114) 107 points

9.07 (119) 91 points

9.14 (126) 75 points

10.01 (127) 73 points

I used 1.08 rather than the actual 1.03 for the Reggie Bush pick because I don't think 1.03 is very representative of where Bush is generally going in initial dynasty drafts, and there is a very large point value difference between 1.03 (1759 points) and 1.08 which would skew results.

Using pick value points, the average of the 12 picks is 449, or about equivalent to pick 65 or 5.05. Discounting a year at 20% gives us pick 73 or 7.01, and discounting 50% gives us pick 82 or 7.10.

So, using this approach an average 1st round rookie pick is worth an equivalent initial dynasty pick somewhere in the 7th round. I think this gives a better answer, since the dropoff associated with the picks is not linear and taking a simple average wouldn't be as accurate. It seems to make about a full round difference.

 

[JMon348]

but next years talent looks to be one of the best ive seen in quite awhile, fantasy wise.

Calvin Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Dwayne Jarrett

Marshawn Lynch

Brady Quinn

Michael Bush

Sydney Rice

I think these guys have a chance to be potential top 10 at their positions in a couple of years, all have that special feel to them, but going into the 03 college season everyone thought Maurice Clarett was the next Emmitt Smith, so anything can happen

Jeff Samardzija also has a chance to be special, so as of right now next years draft looks strong

 

[sheerterror]

I'd find it really hard to give up a pick in the first 6 rounds for an 07 first rounder. You are giving up what should essentially be one of your reliable, weekly starters, likely an already proven NFL talent, for a player who may or may not turn into anything. It's hard to gamble that early in an initial dynasty draft..but as everyone has said, it's going to depend on the owner.

 

[cstu]

Look at the rough ADP of where some of this year's top rookies are going in 12 team leagues:

Reggie Bush - 1st-2nd round

Laurence Maroney - 3rd-5th round

DeAngelo Williams - 3rd-5th round

Joseph Addai - 3rd-5th round

LenDale White - 4th-6th round

Vernon Davis - 6th-8th round round

Matt Leinart - 8th-11th round

Vince Young - 8th-11th round

Jay Cutler - 8th-11th round

Chad Jackson - 9th-11th round

Santonio Holmes - 9th-11th round

Marcedes Lewis - 12th-14th round

That averages out to about a 7th round pick, which was actually my initial answer in the poll.

Personally, I'd say a random first round pick is roughly equivalent in value to pick 6.05 in a 12 team initial draft. But, as always with draft picks, it really depends on the guy making the selection. Good owners make the most of their picks. Bad owners don't.

I traded for my 1st round picks as the 9.01 (97th pick) based on where rookies had gone in other drafts. In a 12 team league, I counted the 2007 1st as roughly a 1.08 since whoever if trading away future picks is going to have a better team this year.

 

[cstu]

This is a good thread to read:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=148170&hl=