Value of the 2010 1.1 rookie pick (1 Viewer)

[PantherPower]

I'm curious as to the value of the 1.1 pick before the NFL draft. If you owned the 1.1 pick in a PPR dynasty league, what kind of established player(s) would it take for you to move the pick?

Going back of the last 3 drafts, we've seen a lot of young talent do exceptionally well in the league (AP, Calvin, Ray Rice, CJ3, Stewart, Harvin, Crabtree, Moreno, etc.) so I've got to believe most would want a 1st or 2nd round start-up type player correct?

 

[EBF]

Guys like Dwyer, Spiller, and Bryant will probably be 2nd-3rd round picks in most startup PPR drafts. That is probably the kind of trade value you should be looking for with the 1.01.

 

[PantherPower]

Guys like Dwyer, Spiller, and Bryant will probably be 2nd-3rd round picks in most startup PPR drafts. That is probably the kind of trade value you should be looking for with the 1.01.

That is what I was assuming. It seems like going back 5+ years, the top rookies usually go no later than the VERY early third, and occasionally as early as late 1st, early 2nd (for players like AP and Calvin for example)

 

[domvin]

....and if you own the 1.01, you need to wait until as close to the draft to deal it. Draft hype will send it up further than what it is now....

 

[Crippler]

Less valuable this year than past. I can see alot of RB/WR/TE/QB that I would want before I want the 1.1 in this draft. So I think 6th round this year.

 

[Avery]

....and if you own the 1.01, you need to wait until as close to the draft to deal it. Draft hype will send it up further than what it is now....

I'm curious on exploring this further.What is the best time to buy (lowest value) and to sell (highest value) rookie picks?

 

[TLEF316]

not a direct comparison, but i play in a 10 team keeper league (keep 5, one must be a rookie). We obviously re-draft the rest of our rosters based on reverse order of finish (as league champ, i'll pick at the 1-2 turn). I won last year too and was able to get two nice veterans at the turn (since the value of top rookies is increased due to our rookie keeper spot).

This year, I'm anticipating that fewer rookies will go in the first round. I just dont think the skill players have the talent needed to produce in their first 2 years (after which they become far less vaulable since they would take up a normal keeper spot). The bright side is i'll probably have my choice of rookie RB's 3-6 if i want. However, i'm not excited about those players and i'm sure my leaguemates feel the same way.

 

[footballsavvy]

not a direct comparison, but i play in a 10 team keeper league (keep 5, one must be a rookie). We obviously re-draft the rest of our rosters based on reverse order of finish (as league champ, i'll pick at the 1-2 turn). I won last year too and was able to get two nice veterans at the turn (since the value of top rookies is increased due to our rookie keeper spot). This year, I'm anticipating that fewer rookies will go in the first round. I just dont think the skill players have the talent needed to produce in their first 2 years (after which they become far less vaulable since they would take up a normal keeper spot). The bright side is i'll probably have my choice of rookie RB's 3-6 if i want. However, i'm not excited about those players and i'm sure my leaguemates feel the same way.

It has been my experience that to time to buy draft picks is mid season while most teams still think their pick will be a late first round pick. If you are good/lucky, you can predict which team is likely to slide in the second hald of the year and grab their 1st rounder cheap.The best time to sell is just before your draft after the NFL draft.

 

[Titus Pullo]

will probably get a lot of flak for posting this and there are some close calls along with guys i'm probably forgetting, but off the top of my head i would not trade these players for 1.01 and likewise would trade 1.01 for the following:

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

Philip Rivers

Tom Brady

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ray Rice

Frank Gore

Ryan Grant

Steven Jackson

Jonathan Stewart

Jamaal Charles

Rashard Mendenhall

DeAngelo Williams

Knowshon Moreno

Matt Forte

Marion Barber

Michael Turner

Chris Wells

Shonn Greene

Andre Johnson

Randy Moss

Miles Austin

DeSean Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Reggie Wayne

Brandon Marshall

Vincent Jackson

Greg Jennings

Calvin Johnson

now shoot!

quick edit: went through a little too quick and some of these guys would really depend on my current team.

 

[Avery]

will probably get a lot of flak for posting this and there are some close calls along with guys i'm probably forgetting, but off the top of my head i would not trade these players for 1.01 and likewise would trade 1.01 for the following:

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

Philip Rivers

Tom Brady

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ray Rice

Frank Gore

Ryan Grant

Steven Jackson

Jonathan Stewart

Jamaal Charles

Rashard Mendenhall

DeAngelo Williams

Knowshon Moreno

Matt Forte

LaDainian Tomlinson

Marion Barber

Michael Turner

Brandon Jacobs

Chris Wells

Shonn Greene

Andre Johnson

Randy Moss

Miles Austin

DeSean Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Reggie Wayne

Brandon Marshall

Vincent Jackson

Greg Jennings

Calvin Johnson

now shoot!

A pretty uncontroversial list outside of a RB or two.

 

[fruity pebbles]

will probably get a lot of flak for posting this and there are some close calls along with guys i'm probably forgetting, but off the top of my head i would not trade these players for 1.01 and likewise would trade 1.01 for the following:Aaron RodgersDrew BreesPeyton ManningPhilip RiversTom BradyChris JohnsonAdrian PetersonMaurice Jones-DrewRay RiceFrank GoreRyan GrantSteven JacksonJonathan StewartJamaal CharlesRashard MendenhallDeAngelo WilliamsKnowshon MorenoMatt ForteLaDainian TomlinsonMarion BarberMichael TurnerBrandon JacobsChris WellsShonn GreeneAndre JohnsonRandy MossMiles AustinDeSean JacksonLarry FitzgeraldReggie WayneBrandon MarshallVincent JacksonGreg JenningsCalvin Johnsonnow shoot!

LT really? My god.

 

[Titus Pullo]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

 

[Mark Davis]

I'm not a J Charles fan or M Forte enough to trade the top slot for them either. Granted this is just a cursory look but once we know the RB's situations I'm not thinking these guys would be ahead of the player I'd most like to have from this rookie crop.

 

[Titus Pullo]

A pretty uncontroversial list outside of a RB or two.

i missed removing LT and Jacobs before submitting. i think it's rather uncontroversial too but there are always rookies that find their way into the 2nd-3rd round of start-up drafts and this year i'm not seeing any worth the risk.

 

[Restricted]

....and if you own the 1.01, you need to wait until as close to the draft to deal it. Draft hype will send it up further than what it is now....

I'm curious on exploring this further.What is the best time to buy (lowest value) and to sell (highest value) rookie picks?

Best time is in season, before the team is guarenteed the low draft pick. Sell is after the NFL draft if it's top 3 or more, depending on guaranteed studs and situations that get filled.If you sell 1.1 now, you are missing out on any fuel that may be added by injures, good teams making surprise trades and all sorts of things that land rookies in prime starting positions. After the draft, you can kind of project a dynasty rook draft much better and get more value knowing that that pick is for a better situation.If you take an offer for your 1.1 now, the other team probably didn't make it's best offer.

 

[fruity pebbles]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

 

[Avery]

....and if you own the 1.01, you need to wait until as close to the draft to deal it. Draft hype will send it up further than what it is now....

I'm curious on exploring this further.What is the best time to buy (lowest value) and to sell (highest value) rookie picks?

Best time is in season, before the team is guarenteed the low draft pick. Sell is after the NFL draft if it's top 3 or more, depending on guaranteed studs and situations that get filled.If you sell 1.1 now, you are missing out on any fuel that may be added by injures, good teams making surprise trades and all sorts of things that land rookies in prime starting positions. After the draft, you can kind of project a dynasty rook draft much better and get more value knowing that that pick is for a better situation.If you take an offer for your 1.1 now, the other team probably didn't make it's best offer.

Agreed.How about if the rookie pick isn't 1.01? Maybe 1.03 or 1.05?I'm thinking it's best to wait if you have a top 3 or 4 pick. Outside of that you might be left out of the top tier of "exciting" rookie picks when the dust settles after the NFL draft so the 1.05 might decrease in value if the consensus is there are only 4 top tier guys.

 

[Titus Pullo]

I'm not a J Charles fan or M Forte enough to trade the top slot for them either. Granted this is just a cursory look but once we know the RB's situations I'm not thinking these guys would be ahead of the player I'd most like to have from this rookie crop.

theres a few names on the list and not on the list that could easily change after the nfl draft. i'm not a huge forte fan either but i like his situation enough to trade 1.01 for him in a ppr league. same with charles.

 

[Mark Davis]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well.

Yeah I might add Crabtree. That's a toss up. As a 49ers fan I might consider that swap. I don't know that there is a lot of difference in he and Dez Bryant. I likely wouldn't trade the pick for Barber either as once the NFL Draft is over you know the situations. You know that Barber has 2 other RB's competing for time and has more wear on the tread than any of the rookie RB's will have.

 

[Titus Pullo]

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

Grant and Barber were iffy and a lot would depend on my team. After more thought, Felix and Choice scare me enough to not trade for Barber right now. Depending on what Green Bay does in the offseason I could see dropping Grant too.Agree with the WR's and TE's.

 

[az_prof]

I'm curious as to the value of the 1.1 pick before the NFL draft. If you owned the 1.1 pick in a PPR dynasty league, what kind of established player(s) would it take for you to move the pick?Going back of the last 3 drafts, we've seen a lot of young talent do exceptionally well in the league (AP, Calvin, Ray Rice, CJ3, Stewart, Harvin, Crabtree, Moreno, etc.) so I've got to believe most would want a 1st or 2nd round start-up type player correct?

No offense, but the players you list really skew the question and do not reflect who was most often taken at 1.1 in the last few years. Who was the consensus 1.1 last year? Moreno or Crabtree, neither of whom did much this year and their long term futures are still unclear. In 2008: McFadden. His future is still not completely decided but most people right now would call him a bust. At the time he was hailed as the next ADP.2007: ADP. Congrats2006: Reggie Bush. Another bust by most people's standards.I think if I could get a WR like Brandon Marshall or Greg Jennings I would jump at trading the 1.1. It is hard to trade for a RB I think because finding comparable value is just difficult since most owners of the 1.1 imagine that the next RB they take with that pick will automatically become CJ or ADP (forgetting about McFadden or Bush). If I owned Ray Rice or MJD or ADP or CJ or Williams or Stewart, why would I trade any of them for an unknown and unproven player? But if I have the 1.1 why would I want an OLD player like Thomas Jones or SJax or Gore? I do think it you might get most any QB you want for that 1.1 and if you need a franchise QB then it isn't a bad idea because it is just as difficult to get your franchise QB through the draft in fantasy as it is for NFL teams--take a proven QB like Brees or Rodgers, and I would say that is about equal value if the owner of the stud QB needs a young RB.

 

[djb916420]

Just traded: Mcnabb, Kolb, Maclin, 1.11

For: 1.1

Guy who owned the 1.1 had a few areas of need. Might of overpaid a little but I felt it was a good time to buy.

 

[Mark Davis]

Just traded: Mcnabb, Kolb, Maclin, 1.11For: 1.1Guy who owned the 1.1 had a few areas of need. Might of overpaid a little but I felt it was a good time to buy.

He need any more Eagles?

 

[Titus Pullo]

thanks for posting that djb916420. it's nice seeing what others have traded/rejected including multiple player/picks. every league is different and depending on peoples teams it's hard to say if it was a good/bad trade but it's still helpful info.

for the record i declined 1.01 for shonn greene in a non-ppr.

 

[finito]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

 

[Darker Knight]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

you can hope.....

 

[Mark Davis]

I'm thinking for me the 1.01 will come down to Bryant, Dwyer, or Matthews. I can't see spending 1.01 on Best or Spiller. I feel like Bryant is the surest thing but if Dwyer or Matthews land in a great situation they could bypass him.

 

[bigmarc27]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

If you traded 1.01 away for Wes Welker, you'd be killing your team.

 

[domvin]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

 

[Mark Davis]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

If you traded 1.01 away for Wes Welker, you'd be killing your team.

Agreed. While I understand the inherent risk of taking a rookie, let's not forget they do have upside. NFL studs are made from those early picks. Look at last year with Moreno, Wells, D Brown, S Greene, and Crabtree. Without having the list pulled up right now I believe only Brown hasn't been mentioned as someone they wouldn't rather have than 1.01. Go back a year further and the consensus top picks of McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, F Jones, Forte, and C Johnson. Of those 6, only Felix and McFadden weren't mentioned. It's far from a sure thing as evidenced with McFadden, but there's been 3, 4, or 5 players listed from the last several drafts here that people would prefer to 1.01. It's quite likely that even if you only snare the 3rd or 4th best player that comes out of this draft when looking back a couple of years down the road, he will be just as good as some of the people on that list. If the guy you would have taken at 1.01 ends up the best of the lot then you are really killing yourself.

 

[az_prof]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

 

[domvin]

....and if you own the 1.01, you need to wait until as close to the draft to deal it. Draft hype will send it up further than what it is now....

I'm curious on exploring this further.What is the best time to buy (lowest value) and to sell (highest value) rookie picks?

Best time is in season, before the team is guarenteed the low draft pick. Sell is after the NFL draft if it's top 3 or more, depending on guaranteed studs and situations that get filled.If you sell 1.1 now, you are missing out on any fuel that may be added by injures, good teams making surprise trades and all sorts of things that land rookies in prime starting positions. After the draft, you can kind of project a dynasty rook draft much better and get more value knowing that that pick is for a better situation.If you take an offer for your 1.1 now, the other team probably didn't make it's best offer.

Agreed.How about if the rookie pick isn't 1.01? Maybe 1.03 or 1.05?I'm thinking it's best to wait if you have a top 3 or 4 pick. Outside of that you might be left out of the top tier of "exciting" rookie picks when the dust settles after the NFL draft so the 1.05 might decrease in value if the consensus is there are only 4 top tier guys.

If it's the 1.3, or 1.5, you are really at mercy to what the FF masses project as guaranteed studs, and just like you said, how the rooks fall in the draft slotting.. 2 drafts ago, when the dust settled, it seemed like DMC, Stewart, and Mendy were the top three, and 1.4 was looking at Forte, and Kevin Smith.....unless you had the foresight to sit back and snag Chris Johnson, even further with Ray Rice. So, yeah, it can backfire if you draft in the early portion of the round, but most likely hype will increase the value.....

 

[az_prof]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

If you traded 1.01 away for Wes Welker, you'd be killing your team.

Agreed. While I understand the inherent risk of taking a rookie, let's not forget they do have upside. NFL studs are made from those early picks. Look at last year with Moreno, Wells, D Brown, S Greene, and Crabtree. Without having the list pulled up right now I believe only Brown hasn't been mentioned as someone they wouldn't rather have than 1.01. Go back a year further and the consensus top picks of McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, F Jones, Forte, and C Johnson. Of those 6, only Felix and McFadden weren't mentioned. It's far from a sure thing as evidenced with McFadden, but there's been 3, 4, or 5 players listed from the last several drafts here that people would prefer to 1.01. It's quite likely that even if you only snare the 3rd or 4th best player that comes out of this draft when looking back a couple of years down the road, he will be just as good as some of the people on that list. If the guy you would have taken at 1.01 ends up the best of the lot then you are really killing yourself.

I am not sure what you are saying, but I THINK you are saying that there is value in trading down, and if that's what you are saying I agree. If you can get a solid veteran AND trade down from 1.1 to 1.2 or 1.3 or 1.4, do it. In most years those second, third, and fourth picks have as much a chance of becoming the next great player as the consensus first pick. I was ecstatic in 2008 to get Stewart at 1.2 when another owner took McFadden at 1.1.The only caveat I would add is that you need to assess how many top tier players there are and not trade down any further; is it four? five? six?

 

[domvin]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

Well, enlighten us? Could Bryant get drafted by the raiders-sure he could, which will plummet his value.Who you like thus far AZ, and fill us in why? What do you not like about Bryant?

 

[finito]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

Crabtree looks great so far. Missing the punchline here.

 

[_lurker_]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

 

[az_prof]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

Well, enlighten us? Could Bryant get drafted by the raiders-sure he could, which will plummet his value.Who you like thus far AZ, and fill us in why? What do you not like about Bryant?

It's not that I don't like Bryant. It's just that people way over value rookie picks in general and that first one in particular. There are no "can't fail" prospects; they all can fail. And I have learned that the 1.4 or 1.2 or 1.5 can often land a better player. So why over pay just to be able to draft the consensus number one player when so often the consensus turns out to be wrong?

 

[fruity pebbles]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

If you traded 1.01 away for Wes Welker, you'd be killing your team.

Like i said it depends how his rehab is going come May but you could do a lot worse than the guy who was the #2 overall WR in my ppr league this year on a ppg basis. If he was healthy I'd take Wes over the 1.01 in a ppr in a heartbeat.

 

[az_prof]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

To be honest, I wouldn't make a trade like that because there is too much uncertainty. You have no idea what the 2011 pick will be--what if it is the first pick? I guess the only way I would do it is if I had reason to believe that next year's draft is going to be much worse than this year and if I had good reason to think that this year's 1.1 pick was going to be truly exceptional. But predicting both of those is also very sketchy.

 

[az_prof]

LT really? My god.

oops, no. cut & paste and went through too quick.

OK off the ledge. I'd prolly drop a few more of the RBs- Jacobs, Barber, Grant- few others are close. Would def add Roddy White, Colston and Sidney Rice might add Crabtree, Harvin and Nicks in a ppr. Might even add Welker if his rehab is going well. In a tight end friendly league a number of Tes i'd add as well.

If you traded 1.01 away for Wes Welker, you'd be killing your team.

Like i said it depends how his rehab is going come May but you could do a lot worse than the guy who was the #2 overall WR in my ppr league this year on a ppg basis. If he was healthy I'd take Wes over the 1.01 in a ppr in a heartbeat.

Welker is 29 now, right? And with the injury coming this late in the year, and with it being an ACL AND an MCL, it seems like 2010 is mostly a wasted year. So in all likelihood the next year Welker will really be serviceable he will be 31. I don't see how he can be ranked in the top 30 WRs at this time.Let me edit the above: his DOB is May 1981, so he turns 29 this summer. That means he will be 30, not 31 when he likely is back to full health. Still, that's old enough and coming off a serious injury like this that I don't want any part of him. Plus, I don't expect NE to stand pat at the position; they will draft some talent to compete and develop.

 

[_lurker_]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

To be honest, I wouldn't make a trade like that because there is too much uncertainty. You have no idea what the 2011 pick will be--what if it is the first pick? I guess the only way I would do it is if I had reason to believe that next year's draft is going to be much worse than this year and if I had good reason to think that this year's 1.1 pick was going to be truly exceptional. But predicting both of those is also very sketchy.

Thanks for the feedback! I hear you about the uncertainty of 2011... yeah, what if 2 or more of your key players go down and it turns out to be the 2011 1.01?!I currently have the 1.01 and want to trade down... just trying to figure out what a reasonable offer is. Perhaps the 1.05 and 2.05?

 

[EBF]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

Crabtree looks great so far. Missing the punchline here.

 

[NoProblem]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

To be honest, I wouldn't make a trade like that because there is too much uncertainty. You have no idea what the 2011 pick will be--what if it is the first pick? I guess the only way I would do it is if I had reason to believe that next year's draft is going to be much worse than this year and if I had good reason to think that this year's 1.1 pick was going to be truly exceptional. But predicting both of those is also very sketchy.

Thanks for the feedback! I hear you about the uncertainty of 2011... yeah, what if 2 or more of your key players go down and it turns out to be the 2011 1.01?!I currently have the 1.01 and want to trade down... just trying to figure out what a reasonable offer is. Perhaps the 1.05 and 2.05?

If it helps at all. I was offered the 1.03 and 1.05 for the 1.01 and 1.09

 

[_lurker_]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

To be honest, I wouldn't make a trade like that because there is too much uncertainty. You have no idea what the 2011 pick will be--what if it is the first pick? I guess the only way I would do it is if I had reason to believe that next year's draft is going to be much worse than this year and if I had good reason to think that this year's 1.1 pick was going to be truly exceptional. But predicting both of those is also very sketchy.

Thanks for the feedback! I hear you about the uncertainty of 2011... yeah, what if 2 or more of your key players go down and it turns out to be the 2011 1.01?!I currently have the 1.01 and want to trade down... just trying to figure out what a reasonable offer is. Perhaps the 1.05 and 2.05?

If it helps at all. I was offered the 1.03 and 1.05 for the 1.01 and 1.09

Did you accept?

 

[az_prof]

For the 1.01 pick... trading your 2011 1st pick -and- what's the highest 2010 1st pick would you trade.

For example, would you trade 2011 1st and the 1.04? 1.05? To get the 1.01?

To be honest, I wouldn't make a trade like that because there is too much uncertainty. You have no idea what the 2011 pick will be--what if it is the first pick? I guess the only way I would do it is if I had reason to believe that next year's draft is going to be much worse than this year and if I had good reason to think that this year's 1.1 pick was going to be truly exceptional. But predicting both of those is also very sketchy.

Thanks for the feedback! I hear you about the uncertainty of 2011... yeah, what if 2 or more of your key players go down and it turns out to be the 2011 1.01?!I currently have the 1.01 and want to trade down... just trying to figure out what a reasonable offer is. Perhaps the 1.05 and 2.05?

If it helps at all. I was offered the 1.03 and 1.05 for the 1.01 and 1.09

I don't know if there is a good trade calculator anywhere for dynasty rookie drafts, but to me, I think if you trade down from 1 to 5 you should get more than the 2.05 as a bonus. I think what I would do is figure out how far I am willing to go down (where does your tier 1 end?); then look at the rosters of all the guys below you in the draft down to that point. See if they have a young player with upside that you really favor and ask for that guy as well as the second round pick and their first round pick.

 

[FUBAR]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

Funny, as much of a Bryant fan as I am - and I'm pretty high on the kid, White is the guy I immediately think of as equal value. Crabtree could work too except there I'd like to see where Bryant falls as I like his talent a bit more and the 49ers situation isn't great.

 

[BigTex]

I own the 1.1 in one ppr dynasty (start 4 WRs) and I'll be taking Dez Bryant. I wouldn't trade the pick for anything less than a top 10 WR or RB, and even then I may balk. To me Bryant is a better prospect than Crabtree, and I love Crabtree. I don't think I'll be trading the pick - I think Bryant will be better than guys like Roddy White or Colston.

I think you are dead on. Bryant is a man amongst boys and is about as close to a sure thing as you get IMHO.....

This is REALLY funny because last year people said the EXACT same things about Crabtree.

Crabtree looks great so far. Missing the punchline here.

x3

 

[ratbast]

I'm curious as to the value of the 1.1 pick before the NFL draft. If you owned the 1.1 pick in a PPR dynasty league, what kind of established player(s) would it take for you to move the pick?Going back of the last 3 drafts, we've seen a lot of young talent do exceptionally well in the league (AP, Calvin, Ray Rice, CJ3, Stewart, Harvin, Crabtree, Moreno, etc.) so I've got to believe most would want a 1st or 2nd round start-up type player correct?

No offense, but the players you list really skew the question and do not reflect who was most often taken at 1.1 in the last few years. Who was the consensus 1.1 last year? Moreno or Crabtree, neither of whom did much this year and their long term futures are still unclear. In 2008: McFadden. His future is still not completely decided but most people right now would call him a bust. At the time he was hailed as the next ADP.2007: ADP. Congrats2006: Reggie Bush. Another bust by most people's standards.I think if I could get a WR like Brandon Marshall or Greg Jennings I would jump at trading the 1.1. It is hard to trade for a RB I think because finding comparable value is just difficult since most owners of the 1.1 imagine that the next RB they take with that pick will automatically become CJ or ADP (forgetting about McFadden or Bush). If I owned Ray Rice or MJD or ADP or CJ or Williams or Stewart, why would I trade any of them for an unknown and unproven player? But if I have the 1.1 why would I want an OLD player like Thomas Jones or SJax or Gore? I do think it you might get most any QB you want for that 1.1 and if you need a franchise QB then it isn't a bad idea because it is just as difficult to get your franchise QB through the draft in fantasy as it is for NFL teams--take a proven QB like Brees or Rodgers, and I would say that is about equal value if the owner of the stud QB needs a young RB.

There is a problem with your assessment of McFadden and Bush's value. Consider their exit value after you drafted them. There was a window for both that could have landed you a decent price. Bush more than McFadden. Also in respect for your QB value I think plenty of QBs warrant the 1.1.

 

[Rodeojones]

12 team PPR League.

I traded the 1.1 and Mike Wallace (Pitt)

for

Miles Austin

 

[JohnnyU]

12 team PPR League.I traded the 1.1 and Mike Wallace (Pitt)forMiles Austin

You will regret the day you chose Miles Austin over Dez Bryant, not to mention giving Wallace to boot.