VBD Baseline - Startable Players (1 Viewer)

[Alonzo Mosely]

Going to try something new (for me anyway) and track the top 12/24/36 players at each position each week. If they make the cut any given week they make the list. At the end of the season I will have a different baseline to work with. How different that is than the baseline I am currently using remains to be seen.

Anyone else do something similar? Is it worth the effort?

 

[Regis]

I have a spreadsheet that I do this with. I can copy the weekly scores from myfantasyleague.com and paste them into the sheet. It then figures out what percentage of the time a guy finishes top 12, top 24, top 36. I made it a couple years ago to try to gauge a player's consistency. I usually do it as pre-draft prep, but don't rely on it much. I've used it to make decisions between players that are ranked real close.

I always say I will track it in-season, but I usually get busy with other stuff.

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

I have a spreadsheet that I do this with. I can copy the weekly scores from myfantasyleague.com and paste them into the sheet. It then figures out what percentage of the time a guy finishes top 12, top 24, top 36. I made it a couple years ago to try to gauge a player's consistency. I usually do it as pre-draft prep, but don't rely on it much. I've used it to make decisions between players that are ranked real close.

I always say I will track it in-season, but I usually get busy with other stuff.

Yeah, I don't want to waste to much energy tracking individual players or anything. Just wanna get a rough idea of how many players put up a score that would have, in hind sight, made them startable in a given week.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Tristan Cockroft does something pretty similar to what you are saying: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/consistency131231/russell-wilson-wes-welker-prove-consistent-again

 

[GregR]

If you mean, you're going to record the fantasy points of the 12th QB every week, and then next year use a baseline for QB equal to the total of all of those, that could be decent. Though I imagine some draftable starters would end up with VBD values which are negative numbers, which could be a bit of a pain for something like auction pricing if it's an auction league.

If that isn't what you meant, you'll have to elaborate what final number you're saying you would be using as a VBD baseline.

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

If you mean, you're going to record the fantasy points of the 12th QB every week, and then next year use a baseline for QB equal to the total of all of those, that could be decent. Though I imagine some draftable starters would end up with VBD values which are negative numbers, which could be a bit of a pain for something like auction pricing if it's an auction league.

If that isn't what you meant, you'll have to elaborate what final number you're saying you would be using as a VBD baseline.

Not doing point tracking. I want to figure out which player I should use as my baseline at each position. In the OP I proposed tallying the number of different players who post a startable score any given week (ie top 12 QBs, 24 RBs, 36 WRs...) After just looking at the QBs, my baseline player probably be somewhere in the 30s---a bit too inclusive. To make it more reasonable I think I may need to take the number of players who posted 5 or 6 startable scores. Using last years QBs as an example, 15 players posted a top 12 score 6 times, while another 3 posted 5 times. From that my baseline QB could be either QB15 or QB18 depending on which number of games I used. Similarly, my baseline TE would be either TE10 or TE14 (WR29 or WR37; RB31 or RB39.)

 

[Biabreakable]

There is going to be an arbitrary cut off point somewhere in your baseline. No matter how you do it.

One way I have done this, is by using the 3 year average of points scored by position.

Standard scoring-

3 year average QB12 301.98 18.9 QB24 211.52 13.2 QB36 98.1 6.1

3 year average RB 12 183.27 11.5 RB 24 137.7 8.6 (132.25 last 2 seasons 8.27) RB36 98.2 6.1

RB 48 74.8 4.7 RB60 53.6 3.4 RB72 37.7 2.4 RB84 28 1.75

3 year average WR 12 167.67 10.5 WR 24 130.03 8.1 WR 36 110.36 6.9 WR48 95.63 6 WR60 77.46 4.8 WR72 61.82 3.9 WR84 51.9 3.2 WR96 44 2.75

3 year average TE12 95.4 5.9 TE24 68.2 4.3 TE36 45.5 2.9

PPR scoring-

3 year average QB12 301.98 18.9 QB24 211.52 13.2 QB36 98.1 6.1

3 year average RB12 223.7 14.6 RB 24 166.7 10.4 RB36 124.93 7.8 RB48 94.4 5.9 RB60 67.2 RB72 51.2 RB84 38.2

3 year average WR12 253.9 15.9 WR24 197.93 12.4 WR36 164.66 10.3 WR48 145.13 9 WR60 119.2 7.4 WR72 98.3 6.1 WR84 79.9 5 WR96 65.9 4.1

3 year average TE12 155.3 9.7 TE18 127.3 8 TE24 106.4 6.7 TE36 70 4.4 TE 48 42.8 2.7

You can also convert this into points per game by dividing by 16 which is the second number next to the total points.

Now I subdivided this into 3 categories.

1. Core player baseline

2. Worst starter baseline.

3. Worst roster spot or replacement level player baseline

For a typical 12 team league of 20 roster spots each with 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex starting requirements I set those baselines as

Core player baseline

QB 12

RB 24

WR 24

TE 12

Worst starter baseline

QB 24

RB 36

WR 48

TE 24

Worst roster spot or replacement level baseline

What I am trying to determine here is what is the bare minimum of points for a player to be worth a roster spot at all.

For this I added the points of RB 84 WR 96 and TE 36 together and divided by 3 which is 36 points. You certainly could roster QB 25-35 who could give you more points than the other 3 positions, but you would only likely start those players one or two times during a season. Otherwise that QB would likely end up a QB24.

As far as frequency the player performed as a core player or somewhere above the worst starter level, that is useful information as well. These baselines could be used for counting that frequency. One thing I do with the 3 years of data is look at which players have performed at a core player level more than one season. But you could also do this by a number of games. Or use those number of games as a percentage chance of that player performing at that level again. Or a number of other things.

Another way to tier is to set a PPG difference between players. For me this is usually in 2 point/game increments.