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VBD Question sort of... (1 Viewer)

Mr. Know-It-All

Footballguy
Maybe it is because I don't fully understand VBD, but if you have projections for every player at each position, and say it is a 12 team league - isn't the theory to compare each players projection to the projection for the 12th player at that position? So the 12th player would have a value of zero, 1-11 would be their projected value minus the point value of the 12th player?

If that is somewhat accurate, then could't you determine true value by looking at percentage difference to determine relative value? My question then is how do you account for position scarcity? Calvin Johnson may have the highest percentage difference of all players...but that doesn't mean I would take him 1st...but should I (disclaimer - do not have 1t pick, just asking the question).

Can someone provide insight on how to effectively use VBD or tips/tricks they have learned?

 
Maybe it is because I don't fully understand VBD, but if you have projections for every player at each position, and say it is a 12 team league - isn't the theory to compare each players projection to the projection for the 12th player at that position? So the 12th player would have a value of zero, 1-11 would be their projected value minus the point value of the 12th player?

If that is somewhat accurate, then could't you determine true value by looking at percentage difference to determine relative value? My question then is how do you account for position scarcity? Calvin Johnson may have the highest percentage difference of all players...but that doesn't mean I would take him 1st...but should I (disclaimer - do not have 1t pick, just asking the question).

Can someone provide insight on how to effectively use VBD or tips/tricks they have learned?
So from your second post, assuming you caught that the baseline player is more how many players at the posititon start league wide, not how just how many teams. So a 1 QB, 2 RB league, you might use 12 QBs and 24 RBs to start with.

VBD will give you a view of value based on combining the pool of players, how you think they will perform (projections), and your league's starting lineup requirements. That's a very good view of the data to have, very useful.

There are other things that also affect your final value and impact maximizing your team that it doesn't incorporate. Things like value created by how your league tends to draft, or the injury likelihood of players at one position versus another.

So for your question of positional scarcity, some of it is covered by a basic look with VBD, and some of it isn't. If we're talking about TE and how there are generally 2-4 elite ones and then a lot of drop off, it covers that for the most part because the baseline player is part of the drop off and he is the player all other TE are "tested" against in coming up with the VBD value.

But if we're talking about a position like RB where scarcity is as much the lack of backups, if that is taking place past your baseline player, then a "last starter" baseline isn't going to pick it up.

So there's a few ways you can use it. One is you can adjust your baselines to kind of be a fudge factor to make VBD's outcome be closer to if it did include that factor. That's what Joe's Baseline does. It was made in the golden age of fantasy football when leagues were 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 or 3 WR, 1 TE... and everyone went hard after RBs. So he increased the RB baseline to a deeper player to reflect their greater value that a strictly "last starter" baseline wouldn't show.

That's not a bad thing to do for creating a cheatsheet for someone to draft from. It's going to get someone a lot further who otherwise doesn't know what they are doing. There are other methods we have, including ones supported in Draft Dominator, that can probably do a better job though than just trying to build it into the baseline.

For example, the Best Value window does what ended up being dubbed Dynamic VBD or DVBD for short. DVBD is the same sort of thing, except instead of comparing every player to a single baseline player at his position.... you just worry about the players you think will be available at this pick and your next. You look to see which position drops off the most because of how you expect your league to draft between your picks, and that helps guide you into taking the overall combination of players that maximize your team.

Using VBD and comparing the results to ADP values in advance can help you locate players who should be good values, lasting longer than they should, and so are likely to be people your optimal team might include. I think the best draft strategy is to do your homework like that with VBD and ADP together in advance. Identify value players. Then do some mocks and see what decisions you are faced with as you try to build the best team, and often guiding your draft towards those players by not taking their position earlier, etc. Just run mock after mock and ask yourself, "Ok, what happens at this point if my value RB did not fall to the 4th round, how does that affect the entire rest of my draft as I have to overdraft backup RBs to compensate?"

You walk through things, and test in advance the choices you are likely to face, and see how good the team is each time, summing up your starter points and looking at backup quality. Then when it comes time for the real draft, you are making the choices for real (including DVBD in real time as you do), but you're very forewarned about the impact of your decisions.

 
In agreement with Greg, however its kind of the reason why I don't like the software to help me draft. I prefer to feel it as I go. Theres too many variables in real time that software tries to automate unsuccessfully in my view.

The big thing here is points projected vs. ADP vs position rarity. In real time, values of players change due to runs on players and unpredictable drafting by competition. Brees is not a good first rounder but if you find him in the 3rd-4th, his value is different.

At runs is where DVBD opens options and begins confusing people. When you have a runoff of runningback, principles of VBD and DVBD propose an argument that I don't think anyone would like to hear because of the way people are drafting this year. "You can either get the 12th RB or the 2nd WR". I think this is where personal firm drafting habits are maybe better. Maybe even a philosophy for the first 4 rounds if you can help it. In mock drafts I have done, this year is going back to the classic RB-RB and a lot of people are doing it.

I feel like people are less comfortable this year holding and waiting for a Gio Bernard or waiting on a Mendenhall type of player. It goes back to my thought on this years draft: You can't predict picks after yours but sometimes you have to make a stand and draft Chris Johnson or MJD(two risky players) even though Dez Bryant and Jimmy Graham are still available. Its never a wrong pick unless its an overreach but to go with DVBD this year is asking for trouble because the position scarcity of higher tier, more dependable running backs vs the lack of mid-level runningbacks vs their ADP. Point : McFadden is still a 3-4th rounder in many drafts I've seen. I don't like that value.

The flipside to this all is that the variance of runningbacks is so topsy turvy. Not everyone drafted in the 1st 12 runningbacks is guaranteed to stay there. You know though that some of these wide recievers are locks for a good year. I draft 12/12 in a league and I think I'm going upside down. I'm not happy with the quality of runningback available at the turn. If I take someone like AJ Green and Dez, or Graham, is it a stretch to say that it would be a safer and possibly more point productive set of picks vs picking CJ?k and Matt Forte? How will that affect my draft and the people drafting after me? Will there be a starting caliber running back available?

Maybe that last comment is for someone that is ok with risking the integrity of their team to win - it certainly isn't a "safe" way to go about it.

 

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