Vegas has spoken... (1 Viewer)

[Phurfur]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

I'm not sure what this means.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

Not sure what you mean.Dallas' odds are lower because Vegas anticipates more money being bet on them, so i nthe off chance that they win it all next year, it won't hurt them as much if they were say 30/1, which they probably should be

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

Record ATS has nothing to do with a prop bet for superbowl champion before the season begins. Dallas' odds are low, IMO, based on the fact that Vegas expects more action on them than other teams.

Can you explain why Dallas' odds are low for a prop bet but Dallas' point spread wouldn't be weighted similarly?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

Not sure what you mean.Dallas' odds are lower because Vegas anticipates more money being bet on them, so i nthe off chance that they win it all next year, it won't hurt them as much if they were say 30/1, which they probably should be

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

Record ATS has nothing to do with a prop bet for superbowl champion before the season begins. Dallas' odds are low, IMO, based on the fact that Vegas expects more action on them than other teams.

Can you explain why Dallas' odds are low for a prop bet but Dallas' point spread wouldn't be weighted similarly?

During the season it certainly is weighted.

 

[pizzatyme]

I think the smart money is to bet the AFC. Anyone have that line?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

Record ATS has nothing to do with a prop bet for superbowl champion before the season begins. Dallas' odds are low, IMO, based on the fact that Vegas expects more action on them than other teams.

Can you explain why Dallas' odds are low for a prop bet but Dallas' point spread wouldn't be weighted similarly?

During the season it certainly is weighted.

Dallas has a winning record ATS over the last couple of decades. Do you have any link for your assertion otherwise?

 

[BoltBacker]

I like the Jets, Pittsburgh and Indy.

Is that based on the team you think could win or the best bet based on the odds?Based on the odds I think the Dolphins are the best bet at 75-1. If and it is a huge if Culpepper's knee is OK, they will get a nice boost at the QB position and maybe a huge boost. The OL was playing better under Hudson Houck later in the year and the injury bug can't be much worse for the Dolphins (one of the key's to winning in the NFL these days).

You pick the Jets, but I think you are making a common mistake that many people make in that they finished well so you project them to continue the next year. Sometimes that is true, but the Jets were the healthiest team in football last year so even if they played at the same level that started below average and then finished above average, they might have been above average only because they were healthy. Conversely, look at the Giants, a team that started great and then when they lost NINE starters they started losing a lot. Injuries play a HUGE role in the outcome of games because the teams are closer than they ever were in terms of talent.

Another thing going for the Dolphins is Cam Cameron imo. People are quick to point out all the talent on the Chargers right now from LT on down but they forget that Cameron has had the SD offense clicking for a long time now even with sub-par talent at OL and WR. He's really got his finger on how offenses can beat defenses right now. The only thing that stopped him this year were untimely TO's and dropped balls. Not sure what changes for the defense are in store but they easily have the best defender in the NFL in Taylor. If Taylor would have had that season in one of the major media markets on a winning team he'd be mentioned as an MVP cantidate... not just defensive player of the year. If those young DB's mature they could surprise.I just think the reason they are 75-1 is that division is improving along with them. This was probably the worst NE team I've seen for the past couple years and it beat SD on the road and came pretty close to beating INDY in INDY. If they retool this offseason at all it wouldn't surprise me at all if BB/Brady win it all next year. I agree people put to much stock in how a team finished but if you are a Jets fan you have plenty of things to optimistic about not the least of which is a very young OL that came together and progressed much faster than I would have anticipated. Even BUF impressed me with Losman taking some pretty big strides last year despite the fact nobody seems to want to give him any credit for it.

 

[majstro]

Using the odds from the first post of this topic, I input the odds into a spreadsheet with each team's 2007 opponents to determine the perceived strength of schedule. Here are how the rankings turned out (easiest to hardest):

1. Broncos - 894

2. Vikings - 884.5

3. Chargers - 878

4. Bears - 864.5

5. Chiefs - 824

6. Rams - 801

7. Panthers - 801

8. Bengals - 790

9. Jaguars - 788.5

10. Seahawks - 784

11. Bucs - 783

12. Lions - 774.5

13. Packers - 764.5

14. Raiders - 764

15. Cardinals - 763

16. Saints - 760

17. Colts - 755.5

18. 49ers - 748

19. Texans - 744.5

20. Redskins - 739

21. Giants - 739

22. Dolphins - 733

23. Steelers - 732

24. Ravens - 711.5

25. Titans - 694.5

26. Cowboys - 693

27. Falcons - 688

28. Browns - 669

29. Jets - 662

30. Eagles - 651

31. Patriots - 625.5

32. Bills - 556

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

Record ATS has nothing to do with a prop bet for superbowl champion before the season begins. Dallas' odds are low, IMO, based on the fact that Vegas expects more action on them than other teams.

Can you explain why Dallas' odds are low for a prop bet but Dallas' point spread wouldn't be weighted similarly?

During the season it certainly is weighted.

Dallas has a winning record ATS over the last couple of decades. Do you have any link for your assertion otherwise?

Bookies make adjustment to line based on the action they receive.In season betting against the spread is different than a prop bet to win the Superbowl during the off season.I'm saying based on the bookies anticipated receiving more action on dallas, their odds are lower than NYG and Philly, who quite frankly, IMO have a better chance to win the superbowl next year.

 

[derek19]

Per Sportsbook.com

Indianapolis Colts 6-1

San Diego Chargers 6-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1

New England Patriots 10-1

Chicago Bears 10-1

Baltimore Ravens 15-1

Cincinnati Bengals 15-1

Dallas Cowboys 15-1

Denver Broncos 15-1

New Orleans Saints 18-1

Carolina Panthers 18-1

Philadelphia Eagles 18-1

Seattle Seahawks 20-1

New York Giants 20-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1

Kansas City Chiefs 30-1

New York Jets 30-1

Tennessee Titans 40-1

Miami Dolphins 40-1

Atlanta Falcons 50-1

Buffalo Bills 50-1

Washington Redskins 50-1

Green Bay Packers 50-1

Arizona Cardinals 60-1

Saint Louis Rams 60-1

Minnesota Vikings 75-1

San Francisco 49ers 75-1

Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1

Houston Texans 100-1

Cleveland Browns 100-1

Oakland Raiders 100-1

Detroit Lions 100-1

http://www.point-spreads.com/content/view/2240/2/1. New England Patriots 2-1

2. San Diego Chargers 5-1

3. Indianapolis Colts 7-1

4. Chicago Bears 16-1

5. Philadelphia Eagles 18-1

6. New Orleans Saints 18-1

7. Seattle Seahawks 18-1

8. San Francisco 49ers 20-1 Las Vegas is "Rolling with Nolan"

9. Baltimore Ravens 25-1

10. Cincinnati Bengals 25-1

11. Denver Broncos 25-1

12. Dallas Cowboys 25-1

13. Carolina Panthers 25-1

14. Pittsburgh Steelers 30-1

15.Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1

16. New York Giants 35-1

17. New York Jets 40-1

18. Washington Redskins 40-1

19. Arizona Cardinals 40-1

20. Green Bay Packers 40-1

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45-1

22. Saint Louis Rams 50-1

23. Minnesota Vikings 50-1

24. Miami Dolphins 55-1

25. Tennessee Titans 60-1

26. Atlanta Falcons 60-1

27. Kansas City Chiefs 60-1

28. Oakland Raiders 75-1

29. Buffalo Bills 100-1

30. Cleveland Browns 100-1

31. Detroit Lions 100-1

32. Houston Texans 100-1

http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

1. Patriots 8-5

2. Chargers 5-1

3. Colts 7-1

4. Saints 12-1

5. 49ers 15-1

5. Bears 15-1

I can't post the rest because my work blocked the site...

 

[nygiants56]

Denver at 25/1 is a steal.

 

[The Hank]

Removing the vig...here's every team's projected chance of winning the Super Bowl:

0.7% Houston Texans 100/1

0.6% Cleveland Browns 125/1

0.6% Detroit Lions 125/1

0.5% Oakland Raiders 150/1

The odds for the Lions is slightly off. The correct odds should read 1,000,000/1

So you're telling me there's a chance...

 

[Gr00vus]

Denver at 25/1 is a steal.

 

[dickey moe]

I like the Saints at 18:1.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I saw Vegas' updated odds on NFL Network last night...

New England 11.5

Indy 11

San Diego 11

Chicago 9

New Orleans 9

That's all they showed.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

My guess is you can probably drop another zero onto the Falcons 60-1 payout.

 

[jabarony]

Denver at 25/1 is a steal.

Stay away. Put your $ on another longshot that actually would have a chance at beating IND (or NE without bogus PI calls and no-call fumbles through the end-zone).Say, for instance, PIT or KC.

 

[jabarony]

I saw Vegas' updated odds on NFL Network last night...

New England 11.5

Indy 11

San Diego 11

Chicago 9

New Orleans 9

That's all they showed.

Odds, or over/under?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;#entry6925798

 

[Mr. Bill O'Reilly]

I like the Colts... Maybe the Bengals.

 

[awesomeness]

i'll take the ravens and rams.

 

[Mr. Bill O'Reilly]

Gotta love the Broncos if you're a gambler

I think they're going to be very very very good.