What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Vegas player props (1 Viewer)

JB Breakfast Club

Footballguy
Scoured the 150 or so player props available in Vegas or online (if that were legal) and made a list of ones I like. I need to narrow this down to two or three...do you see any favorites you like?

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD
 

meyerj31

Footballguy
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions

WOW. That can't be right. Are you sure it wasn't 66? Or even 56?

I would lock this one up immediately. Bet the farm! Even the most bullish projections out there have him around 68-72 receptions. According to the article below, only ONE rookie season in NFL history for WRs has gone over 76 catches.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/741234-10-best-wide-receiver-rookie-seasons-in-nfl-history

76 catches is a great year for any receiver. Only 16 WRs last year broke that mark. I don't see a small slot receiver coming in and being a top 15 WR in his first year.

AJ Green was pro-ready from the get-go and had a solid QB tossing him the ball. And he could play every position, not just slot like Tavon. Green had 65 receptions his rookie year as the only decent receiving option.

That bet is a joke.

These also seem like a joke:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD

Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD

Alex could have 20 passing TDs to only Charles and Bowe, let alone the whole team. Charles is going to crush 300 yards receiving if he stays healthy. He'll have that by week 10 latest.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Man of Zen

Footballguy
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions

WOW. That can't be right. Are you sure it wasn't 66? Or even 56?

I would lock this one up immediately. Bet the farm! Even the most bullish projections out there have him around 68-72 receptions. According to the article below, only ONE rookie season in NFL history for WRs has gone over 76 catches.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/741234-10-best-wide-receiver-rookie-seasons-in-nfl-history
Off the top of my head, Boldin cracked 100, and Terry Glenn cracked 90. Not sure about the rest of the history.

 

nirad3

Footballguy
Scoured the 150 or so player props available in Vegas or online (if that were legal) and made a list of ones I like. I need to narrow this down to two or three...do you see any favorites you like?

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT - UNDER
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving - OVER
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions - UNDER
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD
I also like your Chiefs calls.

 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions

WOW. That can't be right. Are you sure it wasn't 66? Or even 56?

I would lock this one up immediately. Bet the farm! Even the most bullish projections out there have him around 68-72 receptions. According to the article below, only ONE rookie season in NFL history for WRs has gone over 76 catches.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/741234-10-best-wide-receiver-rookie-seasons-in-nfl-history
Off the top of my head, Boldin cracked 100, and Terry Glenn cracked 90. Not sure about the rest of the history.
just looked it up...

boldin had 101 in 2003, michael clayton had 80 in 2004, not sure about glenn...

* not sure i would even bet a winnebago that had been formerly owned by walt of breaking bad on that austin prop bet...

don't. bet. farm.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

JB Breakfast Club

Footballguy
nirad3 said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
Scoured the 150 or so player props available in Vegas or online (if that were legal) and made a list of ones I like. I need to narrow this down to two or three...do you see any favorites you like?

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT - UNDER
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving - OVER
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions - UNDER
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD
I also like your Chiefs calls.
The Chiefs overs really jump out even though I strongly prefer betting unders (injury insurance). My favorite unders right now are Gates under 800 yards and Tavon Austin under 75.5 receptions (other Tavon Austin props are 850 yards and 7.5 TD).

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sylira21

Footballguy
Bob Magaw said:
Man of Zen said:
meyerj31 said:
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions

WOW. That can't be right. Are you sure it wasn't 66? Or even 56?

I would lock this one up immediately. Bet the farm! Even the most bullish projections out there have him around 68-72 receptions. According to the article below, only ONE rookie season in NFL history for WRs has gone over 76 catches.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/741234-10-best-wide-receiver-rookie-seasons-in-nfl-history
Off the top of my head, Boldin cracked 100, and Terry Glenn cracked 90. Not sure about the rest of the history.
just looked it up...

boldin had 101 in 2003, michael clayton had 80 in 2004, not sure about glenn...

* not sure i would even bet a winnebago that had been formerly owned by walt of breaking bad on that austin prop bet...

don't. bet. farm.
Anquan Boldin - 101 (2003)

Terry Glenn - 90 (1996)

Eddie Royal - 90 (2008)

Earl Cooper - 83 (1980)

Michael Clayton - 80 (2004)

Dwayne Bowe - 70 (2007)

Marques Colston - 70 (2006)

These are the best rookie seasons I could find.

My pick for one of these would be Vick under 3200 yards. He's only done it once in his career. What are the odds he stays healthy AND the starter all season?

 

Matty2D

Footballguy
I looked through some and here are the ones that jumped out to me:

Forte o/u 1000 rushing yards

Steven Jackson o/u 7 rushing touchdowns

Jamaal Charles o/u 300 receiving yards

Dwayne Bowe o/u 6 receiving touchdowns

Hakeem Nicks o/u 5.5 receiving touchdowns

I think these go over easily.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
What are the payouts on some of these?? SOmetimes on over/unders the payout for the under may only be like -300, and like +225 for the over.

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing..................easily over
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards...................easily over
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing.......................i say over actually
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions................................wow, VERY much under
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving...................yeah prolly over

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving....................definitely over
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD........................definitely over
 

JB Breakfast Club

Footballguy
What are the payouts on some of these?? SOmetimes on over/unders the payout for the under may only be like -300, and like +225 for the over.

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing..................easily over
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards...................easily over
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing.......................i say over actually
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions................................wow, VERY much under
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving...................yeah prolly over

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving....................definitely over
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD........................definitely over
all lines are -115 on both sides (over and under).

 

HairySasquatch

Footballguy
A lot of these bets should just be changed to do you think player x will get injured and not play a full season.

JB Breakfast Club said:
Scoured the 150 or so player props available in Vegas or online (if that were legal) and made a list of ones I like. I need to narrow this down to two or three...do you see any favorites you like?

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD
 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
A lot of these bets should just be changed to do you think player x will get injured and not play a full season.

JB Breakfast Club said:
Scoured the 150 or so player props available in Vegas or online (if that were legal) and made a list of ones I like. I need to narrow this down to two or three...do you see any favorites you like?

Matt Forte over 1000 yards rushing
Peyton Manning under 14.5 INT
D Thomas over 1100 receiving yards
Matthew Stafford under 4700 yards passing
Arian Foster under 1250 yards rushing
Cecil Shorts over 900 yards receiving
Drew Brees over 15.5 INT
Eli Manning under 4100 yards passing
Michael Vick under 3200 yards passing
Antonio Gates under 800 yards receiving
Colin Kaepernick under 3700 yards passing
Russell Wilson over 400 yards rushing
Tavon Austin under 76 receptions
Vincent Jackson over 1100 yards receiving

I am very bullish on the Chiefs passing game:

Alex Smith over 19.5 passing TD
Jamaal Charles over 300 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe over 6 TD
I think that is pretty much already factored in, cause if they all play 16 games they all get these numbers easily.

 

swirvenirvin

Footballguy
Summary of ones I have made throughout different sites

sidney rice under 750.5
tavon austin under 75.5 (3.5)
doug martin over 1200 rush
garcon over 1000
Amendola over 85.5 J.
Kerley under 800.5
Emmanual Sanders under 875.5
gates under 800.5 (2.5)
Kaepernick under 3700
Rus wilson ovr 400.5 rus
a. rodgers under 10.5 INT
alex smith over 3350 passing
charles over 1150 rushing
dez over 1250 (again)
dem thomas over 1000 (2 units)
welker under 1100 (again)
Dalton over 24.5 TD's
AJ Green over 1200
Martellus Bennett under 650
J. Cameron under 650
S. Jackon over 7 td's
Jacoby Jones under 650 rec
Newton under 700 rushing
Charles over 300 receiving (5)

D. Bryant over 1250.5 -115

Amendola over 950.5 -115

Amendola over 5 td's -140

Welker under 1000.5 +105

Dez vs Andre Jonhson -3 TD's -110

Dez vs Fitzgerald -2 TDs -110
New OROY's
Giovani Bernard +1250 (5dimes)
Eddie Lacy +800 (sportsbook.ag)
Montee Ball +550 (Bovada)

Foster under 1375 rushing.

A. Morris +4.5 -140 rushing TD's vs A. Foster

Brady U 4775
Ju. Jones U 1330
Lynch U 1475 rush yards
Rodgers U 4450
Romo U 4675

Calvin Johnson most receiving yards +385
ADP most rushing +300

Brees -5 TD's vs Stafford

LeVeon Bell ROY +1500

ryan +1 stafford
wilson +2 Flacco

pass+rush combined
Wilson +3 Newton on 5
Wilson +2 Kaep

Dalton +8 vs Ryan
Dalton +8.5 Stafford
dalton +3 luck
Dalton +5 Eli
Dalton +1 Flacco
Brees -3 passing

R. Wilson +10.5 TD's over Stafford

 

JB Breakfast Club

Footballguy
putting it in terms of a $250 ticket...looking at this:

Charles over 300 yards receiving - bet 75 to win 65
Forte over 1000 yards rushing - bet 50 to win 43
T Austin under 75.5 catches - bet 50 to win 43
Bengals win AFC North - bet 30 to win 54
Texans win Super Bowl - bet 20 to win 360
D Thomas most yards receiving - bet 10 to win 140
A Peterson breaks rushing record - bet 10 to win 90
JJ Watt wins MVP - bet 5 to win 250

That AP bet is pretty dumb...
 

bengalbuck

Footballguy
the Charles receiving yards line already moved a lot... 325.5 yards with a -130 over.
Interesting that one has moved.

I was set on taking Jamaal Charles over Ray Rice before looking at the Vegas odds. Vegas absolutely loves Ray Rice and is comparatively pretty down on Charles which almost caused me to change my pick.

The odds I saw had Rice's o/u at 1200 rushing, 62 catches, 500 receiving and 10 TDs. Which is a monster season in terms of Vegas o/u numbers. Charles' o/u were much lower.

Is Vegas right on Rice being more likely to have a huge season than Charles?

 

CalvinJ55

Footballguy
Are you guys seeing these props anywhere other than 5dimes and bodog? There are some lines in here that I haven't found on those two sites.

 

Pots

Footballguy
bengalbuck said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
the Charles receiving yards line already moved a lot... 325.5 yards with a -130 over.
Interesting that one has moved.

I was set on taking Jamaal Charles over Ray Rice before looking at the Vegas odds. Vegas absolutely loves Ray Rice and is comparatively pretty down on Charles which almost caused me to change my pick.

The odds I saw had Rice's o/u at 1200 rushing, 62 catches, 500 receiving and 10 TDs. Which is a monster season in terms of Vegas o/u numbers. Charles' o/u were much lower.

Is Vegas right on Rice being more likely to have a huge season than Charles?
I've had Rice over Charles personally, despite the grain loudly going otherwise. I feel Charles is over-rated and Rice is under-rated.

 

tjnc09

Footballguy
Summary of ones I have made throughout different sites

sidney rice under 750.5

tavon austin under 75.5 (3.5)

doug martin over 1200 rush

garcon over 1000

Amendola over 85.5 J.

Kerley under 800.5

Emmanual Sanders under 875.5

gates under 800.5 (2.5)

Kaepernick under 3700

Rus wilson ovr 400.5 rus

a. rodgers under 10.5 INT

alex smith over 3350 passing

charles over 1150 rushing

dez over 1250 (again)

dem thomas over 1000 (2 units)

welker under 1100 (again)

Dalton over 24.5 TD's

AJ Green over 1200

Martellus Bennett under 650

J. Cameron under 650

S. Jackon over 7 td's

Jacoby Jones under 650 rec

Newton under 700 rushing

Charles over 300 receiving (5)

D. Bryant over 1250.5 -115

Amendola over 950.5 -115

Amendola over 5 td's -140

Welker under 1000.5 +105

Dez vs Andre Jonhson -3 TD's -110

Dez vs Fitzgerald -2 TDs -110

New OROY's

Giovani Bernard +1250 (5dimes)

Eddie Lacy +800 (sportsbook.ag)

Montee Ball +550 (Bovada)

Foster under 1375 rushing.

A. Morris +4.5 -140 rushing TD's vs A. Foster

Brady U 4775

Ju. Jones U 1330

Lynch U 1475 rush yards

Rodgers U 4450

Romo U 4675

Calvin Johnson most receiving yards +385

ADP most rushing +300

Brees -5 TD's vs Stafford

LeVeon Bell ROY +1500

ryan +1 stafford

wilson +2 Flacco

pass+rush combined

Wilson +3 Newton on 5

Wilson +2 Kaep

Dalton +8 vs Ryan

Dalton +8.5 Stafford

dalton +3 luck

Dalton +5 Eli

Dalton +1 Flacco

Brees -3 passing

R. Wilson +10.5 TD's over Stafford
THERE HE IS :excited: :excited: :excited:

 

candymanvandyfan

Footballguy
1) I could see Forte getting a roughly equal number of passing and rushing yards and not crack 1000 rushing yards.

Look at the Garner season in 2002.

2) There are going to be a lot of long handoffs to Austin to try to get him the ball. This is going to be non-trad, at the line of scrimmage type stuff. I can see him getting to 76 receptions.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
The number of receptions for Austin is somewhat dependent on how defenses decide to play the Rams. If they do not play honest then Austin will see the ball more. If they play a lot of defensive backs the Rams will run.

It is really hard to say how many receptions this will mean because even the Rams do not know how defenses will decide to play them yet.

The teams in their division have been able to cheat and over stack a lot against the Rams offense due to lack of established offensive weapons besides Jackson/Amendola- Given's emerged last season. I do not think that is the case anymore. The less the defense can focus on stopping Austin the more likely he is to exceed that number of receptions.

I think what the overall result is going to be is defenses playing back some and the Rams running the ball in good situations.

 

pater familias

Footballguy
This is one of the best threads Ive seen on this site...Great stuff. I will add this little nugget. Guys like McFadden and Nicks who are in their last contract year will surely NEED to play through the year. I know a lot people will not like those choices but the bar is set real low and the reward for them having great years is too great. No doubt McFadden has the talent to exceed his Vegas total and now he BETTER play if he wants the $.

 

Cyclones

Footballguy
Jamaal Charles is on pace for over 800 receiving yards - has covered half the number in 3 games and I wouldn't expect him to slow down much if he stays healthy.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top