E-Z Glider
Footballguy
The Talented Mr Roto's #1 fact from his 100 Crucial facts to know pre-draft is this...
1B - Dunn. Could have been the early appendicitis, could have just been a down year, but I feel very confident that he will outproduce his cost this season. His hot spring just ensures that Ill be targeting him.
2B - Uggla. Hard to say he had a down year as his overall numbers are pretty consistent with his past, but if you erase his 1st half and multiply his 2nd half x2, we'd be talking about the potential #1 pick in the draft, not the #4/5 2B off the board. I dont expect him to outproduce Pujols, but I wouldnt be surprised if he hit 10 more HRs than any 2B not named Cano/Kinsler and 20 more than the rest.
2B - Rickie Weeks. Yeah, yeah, I know all about his history, but his accidents have all been freak and his numbers were down because of his ankle injury (which is all better now). There is risk/history, but Im taking the discount and hoping for a healthy season.
SS - HamRam seems like the obvious choice, but Ive read a few articles that scared the hell out of me. Ill see if I can find them. Something about them going in for the surgery and finding like 5 problems instead of just one and the difficulties of rebuilding your shoulder/back. Im passing on this one.
3B - Wright, I guess, though he doesnt seem to be going for much of a discount?
OF - CarGo. He could/should be back to the #1 OF with a healthy season of ABs.
OF - Soo-Choo. Again, injuries / off-field issues wrecked his 2011 season. No reason not to expect a big rebound. Ill take the discount.
OF - Jayson Werth. Struggled in his first season away from the friendly confines of Citizen Bank and the lineup protection. Could have a nice bounce-back season with an improved lineup/team around him.
OF - Andre Ethier. Another case of injury sapping power. Love him as a value pick this year.
Also, the flip-side of this is coming up with a list of players who had "career years" and are over-valued, or not likely to live up to ADP or auction value.
Feel free to add....
Despite the fact that "veteran" and "down seasons" are relatively subjective terms, I still find this to be a pretty powerful statement. Seems to me if you can identify these proven "veterans" who had "down seasons" and are capable of a comeback (ie: down season not due to old-age or an injury which still exists), one should be able to uncover some potential value. I left off players who are still experiencing injury, or who I dont think are capable of returning to previous levels (Crawford, Mauer, Morneau, etc).Im going to stick of offense, but here are a few I like... feel free to add or debate any of these choices.
1B - Dunn. Could have been the early appendicitis, could have just been a down year, but I feel very confident that he will outproduce his cost this season. His hot spring just ensures that Ill be targeting him.
2B - Uggla. Hard to say he had a down year as his overall numbers are pretty consistent with his past, but if you erase his 1st half and multiply his 2nd half x2, we'd be talking about the potential #1 pick in the draft, not the #4/5 2B off the board. I dont expect him to outproduce Pujols, but I wouldnt be surprised if he hit 10 more HRs than any 2B not named Cano/Kinsler and 20 more than the rest.
2B - Rickie Weeks. Yeah, yeah, I know all about his history, but his accidents have all been freak and his numbers were down because of his ankle injury (which is all better now). There is risk/history, but Im taking the discount and hoping for a healthy season.
SS - HamRam seems like the obvious choice, but Ive read a few articles that scared the hell out of me. Ill see if I can find them. Something about them going in for the surgery and finding like 5 problems instead of just one and the difficulties of rebuilding your shoulder/back. Im passing on this one.
3B - Wright, I guess, though he doesnt seem to be going for much of a discount?
OF - CarGo. He could/should be back to the #1 OF with a healthy season of ABs.
OF - Soo-Choo. Again, injuries / off-field issues wrecked his 2011 season. No reason not to expect a big rebound. Ill take the discount.
OF - Jayson Werth. Struggled in his first season away from the friendly confines of Citizen Bank and the lineup protection. Could have a nice bounce-back season with an improved lineup/team around him.
OF - Andre Ethier. Another case of injury sapping power. Love him as a value pick this year.
Also, the flip-side of this is coming up with a list of players who had "career years" and are over-valued, or not likely to live up to ADP or auction value.
Feel free to add....
But the other numbers could be there.
Don't know if they'll handle him with kid gloves, but assuming not, he'll be in the heart of that Angels lineup pretty much 90% of the year. Guy played 2 years of MVP-level ball before the home plate incident. I think he's only taken a few live AB's in spring, but he mashed them. With that kind of upside, and that discounted a price, I don't need a huge sample size to pull the trigger.Reaching for him around the 12th/13th every draft, just to be super-sure I don't miss out. Give me MVP upside over Melky Cabrera every time.
