Vick a 1st Round fantasy pick next year? (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

Just to put him into perspective a bit...I play in a standard scoring league and adjusted his playing time to reflect him playing one half in game 1 and 10 minutes in game 4 and he's averaged 29.2 fantasy points per game. 29.2. Rodgers is currenty the #1 QB in my league and his per game avg is 20.8.....a 40% difference.

I think it's a mistake to prorate his numbers like this. His playing style leads to him playing half of one game and 10 minutes in another.The OP says to assume things "stay the same" which I take it means he maintains his current production for the rest of the season, and presumably also stays healthy and on the field the rest of the way. The OP says to assume that he is back in Philly. It doesn't mention his supporting cast, but I think we are probably to assume they are back and healthy at draft time.

Personally, I would not value him as a first round pick. It's exceedingly rare for a player to have this kind of elite breakout, once in a decade kind of season and then repeat it. For a number of reasons:

- Injuries to that player and/or his teammates

- Possible holdout/friction to get new contract

- Loss of focus/work ethic/motivation with new contract

- Defenses, especially those in the same division, studying a year's worth of film over the offseason make some useful adjustments

- Off field issues

- Presence of a quality backup in the event of a slump/losing streak

- Etc.

I think any or all of those things will affect him next year.

For a somewhat similar example, look at Chris Johnson this year. Last year, he had one of the best RB seasons in recent memory. This year, he's average fppg is roughly 2/3 what it was last year, and he hasn't even been hurt. He hasn't been a bust, but he hasn't been worthy of his draft pick either.

Think about the monster season Peyton Manning had. He had 460 fantasy points in 2004. In the 5 seasons since then, he has averaged "just" 332 with a high of 371. Has he been worth a 1st round fantasy pick in those years? It depends on your philosophy and league, but he hasn't been to me.

I'd feel better about drafting another position in the first and getting a very good QB in the 2nd to 4th depending on who is available.

I was just pointing how far and above he's been than even the elite at his position this year. He played a half in game 1 because Kolb was the starter and got concussed. Vick obviously didn't come from nowhere, he was a top 10/5 QB before he went to prison and he was not a good passer then. It's not as if we're talking about Matt Cassel or Derek Anderson and prorating their 2nd halfs of their miracle seasons. The lightbulb has definitely flipped on though now whether it be supporting cast, work ethic, system, coaching (or everything combined) he's a MUCH better QB now than he ever was in Atlanta (and he was a very good fantasy QB). Is he a lock to do it again? Who knows but which QB would you draft above him? I can't think of one.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Im a phily homer and love how Vick is playing, but in FF i never would draft a QB in the 1st 4 rounds let alone the 1st round.

Quick comparison thus far:Rodgers (this years 1st Rd QB): 57.4 pts better than the 12th scoring QB (value over replacement level player).

What kind of value over replacement do we get for drafting an RB in that area (8-10 spot)

Best case would be Turner: 47.2 pts better than the 24th scoring RB.

Sjax is only 30.5 points up.

The WRs, well...we all know how Moss turned out. Andre has been decent but not worthy of a 1st.

This is really simplistic analysis which only applies to a 12 team 'standard' league, but my point is that drafting a QB in the first can easily pay off, there is no fantasy rule that says 1st Rd QBs are always a bad idea.

I took rogers in the 2nd of a keeper league, so about the 10th -12th pick. He's been worth it (but for that I also got vick in that league) No one would give me fair trade value for either (as rogers has 0 keeper) and oddly no one in my league believed in vick until after the trade deadline. So i now have both. Figured with the aforementioned injury risk, why not keep the best backup there is (and make others start lesser qbs)/not have to face AR later. (same thing in 2nd league as i have brady cutler and vick )

 

[BassNBrew]

whoever put no in a 2qb is dumb. I voted yes, but it depends on scoring. in 3pt passing td leagues he might slight to the second (but will be the 1st/2nd qb taken)In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.

Not any dumber than taking Vick #1 overall in a 2 qb league.

 

[VaTerp]

IMO, Vick is absolutely a 1st round pick next year if the situation remains relatively the same.

I guess it's somewhat dependent on league set up but way TOO MANY people make a big deal out of refusing to take a QB in the first or early in FF. I have won leagues being the 1st to take a QB and the last. There are plenty of ways to win in FF. You can talk all the statistical deviance stuff you want but IMO it's about confidence level with my 1st round investment.

I will take Vick after how ever many RBs I truly feel comfortable with as a pretty reliable stud. Right now I think I would consider Vick somehwere in the middle of the 1st round next year. You can find value at every position in later rounds. So for me it is again about confidence level. If I'm more confident in Vick putting up elite production then I'm taking him over a RB or any other player just b/c of their position.

Aside from injury, this year Vick has consistently put up ELITE numbers. He gives you consistency plus explosiveness and can win weeks for you all by himself. I don't think you can overstate how valuable that combination is to FF success. If you're not confident in Vick putting together another season like this then of course you don't take him in the 1st round.

But I like what I see and imagine that he could get even better in another year under Reid and with the young, explosive weapons on that offense. Depending on how things play out I could even justify taking Vick 1st overall in my main league.

 

[Captain Hook]

for getting the poll choices correct IMO

Obviously scoring affects things, but IMO in a standard league, NO quarterback is a first round pick but Vick WOULD be a first round pick in either a 2 QB league or a league where you can flex a QB

 

[FUBAR]

whoever put no in a 2qb is dumb. I voted yes, but it depends on scoring. in 3pt passing td leagues he might slight to the second (but will be the 1st/2nd qb taken)

In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.

I get that that scoring will drop most QBs considerably, but it would make Vick that much more valuable than all other QBs, so why would he drop into the 2nd? If anything that scoring makes me bump Vick up a little.

 

[meatwad1]

assuming things stay the same, he finishes the season healthy and PHI re-ups him.

Absolutely a low end first rounder.

 

[QuizGuy66]

That's the best part about starting Vick...it's like having a #1 QB and a Flex RB in one package. You can almost always count on over 200 yards and 2 TDs through the air, and 50+ yards and the occasional TD on the ground. I think the only thing that would keep him from being selected in the first round is injury concerns.

I'm someone who NEVER keeps a QB in my 2-keeper league. There always seems to be a good one around waiting for you. Odds are very high that I'll be keeping Vick for just this reason (heck I may have to ponder the craziness that would be keeping him AND McCoy actually). I actually cut him after he got hurt and then reacquired him and feel lucky to have done so. The injury factor is certainly a concern (and actually the prospect of him leaving the Eagles I guess, though I don't think it'll come to that). But it's unbelievable where his stock has gone this year.-QG

 

[Banger]

That's the best part about starting Vick...it's like having a #1 QB and a Flex RB in one package. You can almost always count on over 200 yards and 2 TDs through the air, and 50+ yards and the occasional TD on the ground. I think the only thing that would keep him from being selected in the first round is injury concerns.

I'm someone who NEVER keeps a QB in my 2-keeper league. There always seems to be a good one around waiting for you. Odds are very high that I'll be keeping Vick for just this reason (heck I may have to ponder the craziness that would be keeping him AND McCoy actually). I actually cut him after he got hurt and then reacquired him and feel lucky to have done so. The injury factor is certainly a concern (and actually the prospect of him leaving the Eagles I guess, though I don't think it'll come to that). But it's unbelievable where his stock has gone this year.-QG

I'm in the exact same boat. I've been in a keeper league for 15 years and I haven't protected a QB since Warner back on the Greatest show on turf days and I'll likely keep Vick or package him up for a boatload. He's gold Jerry!!

 

[tigerz]

Only if your league has deep enough rosters or no QB limitations so you could also pickup Kolb. If Vick goes down then Kolb would be snatched up immediately and I think Kolb would be one of the best backups so that would offset the injury risk. Doesn't matter if he's a QB or not. It's more important to hit on your first 3-5 rounds than it is to aim for a specific position but the injury risk is concerning. For example, a team with 5 starters from the first 5 rounds will always be better than a team that hits 2 RB in the first two rounds and then whiffs on QB and WRs in the next 3.

 

[jackdubl]

J

Vick should definitely be the first QB off the board. That's probably in the first round, as I can't remember a league where no QB was taken in the first. In standard scoring average, it's Vick by a wide margin over Rivers, Rodgers, and a bunch of other QBs all jumbled up with similar averages. So he WILL be a first-rounder next season. Only question is do you take a QB that early? I wouldn't, personally. Usually there's a bargain to be had later, like Rivers was this season.

Do you think it's easier to hit on those bargains for QBs than for other positions? I ask because for every position there are bargains to be had.

True. I actually think RB is the easiest position to find a bargain. I can always find someone under the radar just by watching the preseason games. Last year, Ray Rice. This year, Arian Foster.

 

[massraider]

assuming things stay the same, he finishes the season healthy and PHI re-ups him.

Absolutely a low end first rounder.

Yeah.I wasn't a believer, but if you think he can do anything close to what he's done, do the math. More than worth it.

 

[thatguy]

Absolutely in a 2QB league. Standard I'd still say 2nd or 3rd just because of the injury risk.

This is about where I am right now.

 

[plyka]

Way to many negatives for a first round investment.

What would those be? Which ones don't other 1st round picks have?

The biggest is injury concerns. Peyton, Brady, Brees etc all don't run wild and take unnecessary hits every other play. They also know how to slide when they do scramble. That alone is a major drawback. High risk high reward with Vick. Some games you'll get the Washington game (2nd one). Other games you'll get the Washington game (first one).

This^I am a Vick owner, i got him for free off the WW in my keeper league and he may lead me to a championship, but still I wouldn't draft Vick in the first in a redraft next year because of the injury concern. This year I had Orton as my backup, so it wasn't a big issue when he went down for all those games in the middle of the year. But my 1st round pick has to be more safe. Not to mention his age which is a secondary concern for me. His game is based a lot on his athletic ability and the question is how long can he be so quick/fast? He has already lost a step, the only reason it doesn't seem like it is because I believe Vick in his physical prime was the quickest/fastest player to ever play football. But he can't keep it up forever, no one can. I still lament that he had to miss 2-3 years of his physical prime due to his criminal charges, who knows what could have been.On another note, can someone please let Vick know that he should GET THE F DOWN AND SLIDE!! Don't take a hit as any hit could be your last for the season. It is ridiculous how much risk he takes, what are the coaches doing in PHilly?

 

[Banger]

Way to many negatives for a first round investment.

What would those be? Which ones don't other 1st round picks have?

The biggest is injury concerns. Peyton, Brady, Brees etc all don't run wild and take unnecessary hits every other play. They also know how to slide when they do scramble. That alone is a major drawback. High risk high reward with Vick. Some games you'll get the Washington game (2nd one). Other games you'll get the Washington game (first one).

This^I am a Vick owner, i got him for free off the WW in my keeper league and he may lead me to a championship, but still I wouldn't draft Vick in the first in a redraft next year because of the injury concern. This year I had Orton as my backup, so it wasn't a big issue when he went down for all those games in the middle of the year. But my 1st round pick has to be more safe. Not to mention his age which is a secondary concern for me. His game is based a lot on his athletic ability and the question is how long can he be so quick/fast? He has already lost a step, the only reason it doesn't seem like it is because I believe Vick in his physical prime was the quickest/fastest player to ever play football. But he can't keep it up forever, no one can. I still lament that he had to miss 2-3 years of his physical prime due to his criminal charges, who knows what could have been.On another note, can someone please let Vick know that he should GET THE F DOWN AND SLIDE!! Don't take a hit as any hit could be your last for the season. It is ridiculous how much risk he takes, what are the coaches doing in PHilly?

just curious who was your first round pick this year in that league?

 

[Zoomanji]

who drafts QBs in the 1st round?

 

[CalBear]

I think you're mis-remembering those Atlanta years. Vick was a notch below what Vince Young is now. He'd give you 100 yds rushing but only 120 yards passing and 1 TD. Some games the rushing wouldn't be there but the passing would still suck. Vick has 5 career 300 yard games. He has 3 of them this season in the 6 games he's played. He's playing great now and is definitely a top QB pick for FF but lets not gloss over the inconsistent mess he was in Atlanta for FF.

Vick was the #3 QB in fantasy football in 2002 and 2006, and top-12 his other years there. Vince Young has yet to finish in the top 12 in fantasy.

 

[CalBear]

Let's just be careful with fairytale stories like this. Kordell Stewart has already been mentioned and Randall Cunningham is another good example. He had an absolutely sensational breakout year in Moss's rookie season. Other veteran QBs enjoying fairytale years include Vinny Testaverde, Doug Flutie and Chris Chandler. The constant is that the following year, things didn't work out so well.

Kordell Stewart: Finished as the #2 QB in 1997. 53.6% completions, 21 TD, 17 INT, passer rating 75.2. Finished as the #9 QB in 2001, passer rating 81.7.Randall Cunningham: Finished top-5 five out of six years, ages 24-29 (injured the other year). Also finished as #2 QB in 1998, at age 35, injured the following year (age 36).Testaverde: Never finished top 5.Flutie: Never finished top 5.Chandler: Never finished top 5.Of that crew, Vick at age 30 looks a lot more like early Cunningham than he does like 35-year-old Cunningham (who rushed for just 132 yards and 1 TD), or like any incarnation of Kordell, Testaverde, Flutie or Chandler.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's certainly enticing but I'll tell you why I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round and that's because I think he has a higher rate to get injured than most 1st rounders and most Qb's in general. Personally I expect him to get injured (not serious but enough to knock him out of a game) down the stretch. I've stated this the last couple weeks so maybe I'm wrong but I don't think he's learned a lot in terms of how to not get hit when he is running. He doesn't know how to slide and he does take some hits.

It's starting to get cold outside, we'll see if that plays an effect on Mike Vick down the stretch as well.

Mike Vick has played awesome this year, I wouldn't take him as my 1st round pick to start off an entire season. If I was playing 1 week and all defenses are considered the same, I could take him in the 1st round.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

If you're going to draft a qb in the first round, Vick is a guy to do it with.

 

[FUBAR]

J

Vick should definitely be the first QB off the board. That's probably in the first round, as I can't remember a league where no QB was taken in the first. In standard scoring average, it's Vick by a wide margin over Rivers, Rodgers, and a bunch of other QBs all jumbled up with similar averages. So he WILL be a first-rounder next season. Only question is do you take a QB that early? I wouldn't, personally. Usually there's a bargain to be had later, like Rivers was this season.

Do you think it's easier to hit on those bargains for QBs than for other positions? I ask because for every position there are bargains to be had.

True. I actually think RB is the easiest position to find a bargain. I can always find someone under the radar just by watching the preseason games. Last year, Ray Rice. This year, Arian Foster.

Depends on your league and when you draft. Didn't everyone here have Foster on their contest team and were well aware of him? Same with Rice last year. You can get lucky and get guys like Hillis more often than Orton or Vick-types at QB, but you have to get in early which is harder to do in active leagues with knowledgeable owners.

 

[jackdubl]

J

Vick should definitely be the first QB off the board. That's probably in the first round, as I can't remember a league where no QB was taken in the first. In standard scoring average, it's Vick by a wide margin over Rivers, Rodgers, and a bunch of other QBs all jumbled up with similar averages. So he WILL be a first-rounder next season. Only question is do you take a QB that early? I wouldn't, personally. Usually there's a bargain to be had later, like Rivers was this season.

Do you think it's easier to hit on those bargains for QBs than for other positions? I ask because for every position there are bargains to be had.

True. I actually think RB is the easiest position to find a bargain. I can always find someone under the radar just by watching the preseason games. Last year, Ray Rice. This year, Arian Foster.

Depends on your league and when you draft. Didn't everyone here have Foster on their contest team and were well aware of him? Same with Rice last year. You can get lucky and get guys like Hillis more often than Orton or Vick-types at QB, but you have to get in early which is harder to do in active leagues with knowledgeable owners.

But Rice and Foster weren't first rounders in most leagues. I know I built my drafts around when I thought I could get those guys, and it was like the third round or later.

 

[moderated]

If someone told me he would be healthy for 16 games in 2011 and he is back wih the eagles i'd take him with he first pick in the draft, he is destroying all other qb's and the phili offense will be even more scary next year as that core plays together more.

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

 

[kinghill]

The poll is missing an option:

- Only the mentally handicapped draft a QB in the 1st round

 

[aimlessgun]

The poll is missing an option:

- Only the mentally handicapped draft a QB in the 1st round

People keep posting one liners like this with absolutely no backup, and ignore previous posts in this thread that argue against the idea. I'll say it again: the 1st round QB this year was Rodgers, and he has absolutely paid off for anyone who took him over the likes of Sjax or Turner, or a Randy Moss. People act like you can always get similar production out of a QB late, but can't for RBs, when in fact recently it has been quite easy to get solid RB's later on.

Everyone is tired about all the talk of the death of the stud RB, the rise of RBBC etc. If I hear an announcer say "It's a quarterback's league" one more time I'm going to throw something. But people blather on about it because it's true.

 

[kinghill]

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

I want you in my league. Vick's averaging 4.1 points more than QB#2 (Rivers)He ain't gonna be doing that next year

 

[CalBear]

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

I want you in my league. Vick's averaging 4.1 points more than QB#2 (Rivers)He ain't gonna be doing that next year

Here are the non-QBs taken in the mid-late first round this year:Michael TurnerAndre JohnsonSteven JacksonRandy MossDeangelo WilliamsDo you really the performance owners got out of those guys is clearly substantively better than the performance of the QBs? (Rodgers and Brees). Rodgers and Brees are not blowing the world away, but they're doing better than that cadre. Vick doesn't have to outscore everyone by 4 ppg to be worth a first-round pick.

 

[kinghill]

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

I want you in my league. Vick's averaging 4.1 points more than QB#2 (Rivers)He ain't gonna be doing that next year

Here are the non-QBs taken in the mid-late first round this year:Michael TurnerAndre JohnsonSteven JacksonRandy MossDeangelo WilliamsDo you really the performance owners got out of those guys is clearly substantively better than the performance of the QBs? (Rodgers and Brees). Rodgers and Brees are not blowing the world away, but they're doing better than that cadre. Vick doesn't have to outscore everyone by 4 ppg to be worth a first-round pick.

ok, fine, I'm not going to blanketly say drafting a QB in the first round is horrible, the fact is there are a lot of other factors to consider. I've just always been against taking a QB in the first. Guys who routinely make the playoffs in my main $ leagues get great value QBs in the mid/later rounds.schaub and rivers drafted in 3rdrothburgher in 5thcassel in 16thwith that said, the top 5 guys in my main league have these QB's:1 Rodgers2 Romo->Cutler3 Cutler->Roethlisberger4 Rivers5 Schaub->VickAlso my opinion is skewed because it's a keeper league where you give up a draft pick 2 rounds higher than where you drafted the player to keep him. I drafted Rodgers in the 13th round in 2008.Fact is this thread is about where Vick will be ranked as a QB next year. I don't even have him as the #1 QB so how could I agree with taking him in the 1st round.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Couldn't I think that Vick will be a 1st round pick but determine not to draft him at all?

yeah. people climb everest without oxygen. Often they get frostbite and lose the tips of their noses to it. Similarly, this type of maneuver would be cutting of your nose to spite your smug sense of meaningless and misguided satisfaction.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

whoever put no in a 2qb is dumb. I voted yes, but it depends on scoring. in 3pt passing td leagues he might slight to the second (but will be the 1st/2nd qb taken)In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.

Not any dumber than taking Vick #1 overall in a 2 qb league.

no you are wrong. the former is MUCH dumber...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

whoever put no in a 2qb is dumb. I voted yes, but it depends on scoring. in 3pt passing td leagues he might slight to the second (but will be the 1st/2nd qb taken)

In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.

I get that that scoring will drop most QBs considerably, but it would make Vick that much more valuable than all other QBs, so why would he drop into the 2nd? If anything that scoring makes me bump Vick up a little.

I could see that too (as his % of tds running vs passing is just more amplified). similarly in leagues that punish ints (-2 for e.g) he would also rise as he has thrown 1 all year iirc?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Absolutely in a 2QB league. Standard I'd still say 2nd or 3rd just because of the injury risk.

This is about where I am right now.

fwiw I have never played in a 2 qb league. But from listening to the huddle/audible I gather that ALL the stud qbs are gone by the 2nd and even the cutler/kolb etc level qbs are going in the 3-5th due to the position scarcity. They said that often 2-3 qbs go in the 1st round. By this logic I can't see him not being one. In a redraft I agree with someone above who said I'd take him after the 'stud rbs' are gone (this year i would say pick 6-7) based un the ridiculous upside. I would then take kolb a round or 2 early to hedge the inj tho.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

who drafts QBs in the 1st round?

I do, but only when that qb also has a rb2 hidden inside him.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

He's certainly enticing but I'll tell you why I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round and that's because I think he has a higher rate to get injured than most 1st rounders and most Qb's in general. Personally I expect him to get injured (not serious but enough to knock him out of a game) down the stretch. I've stated this the last couple weeks so maybe I'm wrong but I don't think he's learned a lot in terms of how to not get hit when he is running. He doesn't know how to slide and he does take some hits.It's starting to get cold outside, we'll see if that plays an effect on Mike Vick down the stretch as well.Mike Vick has played awesome this year, I wouldn't take him as my 1st round pick to start off an entire season. If I was playing 1 week and all defenses are considered the same, I could take him in the 1st round.

this is true for all players (yes vick gets bumped due to style) but when you have a cheap handcuff that can produce at 70%-80% of his production if this happens where is this 'huge risk'?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

The poll is missing an option:- Only the mentally handicapped draft a QB in the 1st round

guess you missed that part where he is avg 8 ppg over the next guy. That's an rb2/wr2/te1 right there.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

I want you in my league. Vick's averaging 4.1 points more than QB#2 (Rivers) (Who is JUST off Marino's all-time record for qb yards and is STILL 4-8 ppg depending on scoring behind Vick)

He ain't gonna will only need to be doing 75% of that next year to be deemed a 1st round 'success'. The rest is upside/gravy.

Fixed.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Without the guarantee of health he is still easily worth the gamble in the mid/late 1st. He's scoring like 8 more fantasy ppg then the #2 qb, that is a HUGE advantage.

I want you in my league. Vick's averaging 4.1 points more than QB#2 (Rivers)He ain't gonna be doing that next year

Here are the non-QBs taken in the mid-late first round this year:Michael TurnerAndre JohnsonSteven JacksonRandy MossDeangelo WilliamsDo you really the performance owners got out of those guys is clearly substantively better than the performance of the QBs? (Rodgers and Brees). Rodgers and Brees are not blowing the world away, but they're doing better than that cadre. Vick doesn't have to outscore everyone by 4 ppg to be worth a first-round pick.

ok, fine, I'm not going to blanketly say drafting a QB in the first round is horrible, the fact is there are a lot of other factors to consider. I've just always been against taking a QB in the first. Guys who routinely make the playoffs in my main $ leagues get great value QBs in the mid/later rounds.schaub and rivers drafted in 3rdrothburgher in 5thcassel in 16thwith that said, the top 5 guys in my main league have these QB's:1 Rodgers2 Romo->Cutler3 Cutler->Roethlisberger4 Rivers5 Schaub->VickAlso my opinion is skewed because it's a keeper league where you give up a draft pick 2 rounds higher than where you drafted the player to keep him. I drafted Rodgers in the 13th round in 2008.Fact is this thread is about where Vick will be ranked as a QB next year. I don't even have him as the #1 QB so how could I agree with taking him in the 1st round.

How about this. Who are you taking over Vick from 1.7-2.12?

 

[Banger]

He's certainly enticing but I'll tell you why I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round and that's because I think he has a higher rate to get injured than most 1st rounders and most Qb's in general. Personally I expect him to get injured (not serious but enough to knock him out of a game) down the stretch. I've stated this the last couple weeks so maybe I'm wrong but I don't think he's learned a lot in terms of how to not get hit when he is running. He doesn't know how to slide and he does take some hits.It's starting to get cold outside, we'll see if that plays an effect on Mike Vick down the stretch as well.Mike Vick has played awesome this year, I wouldn't take him as my 1st round pick to start off an entire season. If I was playing 1 week and all defenses are considered the same, I could take him in the 1st round.

this year was one of those years when he did get hurt and look what he's done...he's crushing every QB by a considerable margin when he plays. You pair him up with Kolb with your last pick as insurance and you're set except for the bye week.

 

[Eastwood]

I don't ever draft a QB in the first, but Vick should DEFINITELY be the first QB off the board IMO. BEAST.

 

[thehornet]

The poll is missing an option:- Only the mentally handicapped draft a QB in the 1st round

you're missing the boat. Fantasy football has changed. QB's are at a higher premium than RB's the last few years.

 

[thehornet]

For everyone saying No becuase he is an injury risk. How do you feel comfortable drafting a runningback when it is the most injury prone position?

 

[zoonation]

The goal in drafting in the first round is to not lose the draft. If Vick stays in Philly he is a lock top 5 and likely #1 QB next year.

No brainer 1st round pick.

I predict he will routinely be a top 5 pick next year, never mind first round.

 

[massraider]

ok, fine, I'm not going to blanketly say drafting a QB in the first round is horrible, the fact is there are a lot of other factors to consider. I've just always been against taking a QB in the first. Guys who routinely make the playoffs in my main $ leagues get great value QBs in the mid/later rounds.

I assume that means they do NOT get value at WR and RB in the mid/later rounds then?Everyone in your league drafted Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd in the 2nd round?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

for getting the poll choices correct IMOObviously scoring affects things, but IMO in a standard league, NO quarterback is a first round pick but Vick WOULD be a first round pick in either a 2 QB league or a league where you can flex a QB

are there leagues where you can flex a qb? wouldn't those just be de facto 2 qb leagues unless you are a moron (or can't field a 2nd qb due to injury/scarcity)

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's certainly enticing but I'll tell you why I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round and that's because I think he has a higher rate to get injured than most 1st rounders and most Qb's in general. Personally I expect him to get injured (not serious but enough to knock him out of a game) down the stretch. I've stated this the last couple weeks so maybe I'm wrong but I don't think he's learned a lot in terms of how to not get hit when he is running. He doesn't know how to slide and he does take some hits.It's starting to get cold outside, we'll see if that plays an effect on Mike Vick down the stretch as well.Mike Vick has played awesome this year, I wouldn't take him as my 1st round pick to start off an entire season. If I was playing 1 week and all defenses are considered the same, I could take him in the 1st round.

this year was one of those years when he did get hurt and look what he's done...he's crushing every QB by a considerable margin when he plays. You pair him up with Kolb with your last pick as insurance and you're set except for the bye week.

Then I guess you know who your first and 15th round pick is next year if Vick is still in Philly, which I Imagine he would be.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't ever draft a QB in the first, but Vick should DEFINITELY be the first QB off the board IMO. BEAST.

People keep saying this. It's about as dumb as 'always play your studs', or I will never draft a player from ______'s team. It's all relative. Now in the history of my involvement in FF (now going on 17 years) I have never drafted a qb in the first round (save maybe in some mock drafts to try it.. at least to the best of my recollection-- there may have been a year or two where I took peyton/brees in the 1st round of a 3-5 man keeper, but that's not a '1dt round pick'.However, the reason 'always' bench your studs is a bad idea (as say Revis Island, the pitt run d, a monsoon in london, Rusty Griswold is your qb and you are the best rb in the league but you still get 7 touches can all greatly affect a starting decision etc ) because it needs to be evaluated based on point maximization.

Similarly NEVER draft a qb is based on normal means/avg point scoring etc. Vick 2.0 is shattering these marks, because he does something very well, that most qb's don't. RUN the football, while not losig out on his passing yards. Since most qbs don't do it well, it's reward is a huge advantage. How many qbs will avg 40-50 yards rushing? That 5 points (which actually is a lot more when counting increased TD production, and vicks potential to post 100 yd games.) counts for 125 yards of passing. If he gets a rush td (or two as he has done a few time) that's like another 150-250 yards passing. That's the gravy. He can have an 'off day' throwing for 250 and still post 40 pts. His skillset is such an advantage in most leagues that to not take him in the first is to ignore this fact and simply go by your general mantra of never go qb early b/c there is comparable value later and you need a 'lock' 1st round pick (usually a rb). Well now 1st round rbs (especially the back 1/2 of the first round) are not locks. Hell forte was the rb3 last year and he stank. Best? Mathews? They stunk this year too. Oh they are hurt you say? Yeah, cuz they get hit a lot too (the knock on vick) and so would prolly have a similar level pf 'inj' risk. Ya'll are weighing vicks injury risk, with rogers/river/peyton when you should be weighing vicks injury risk with MJD/Ray Rice/peyton hillis.

This is the same level of argument I got when I initially posted the vick bandwagon thread wk 1. He can't do it. He can't pass. He's injury prone etc.

Dude had broken ribs. Came back. got nailed 4-5 times badly on Thursday. 2nd and goal at the 1? GB Dive.

Don't hate the player LOVE the game!

In another thread someone said that having vick is kind of like haveing an extra turrett off your ship like in some old video games. Having Vick will allow you to take risks/fail at other positions, as it's like getting to play 11 on 10 with an extra rb3 with rb1 upside (in addition to the passing stats)

 

[FUBAR]

for getting the poll choices correct IMOObviously scoring affects things, but IMO in a standard league, NO quarterback is a first round pick but Vick WOULD be a first round pick in either a 2 QB league or a league where you can flex a QB

are there leagues where you can flex a qb? wouldn't those just be de facto 2 qb leagues unless you are a moron (or can't field a 2nd qb due to injury/scarcity)

depends on scoring. In my redraft, we allow QB for flex but the #13-24 QBs score around 8-10 ppg, most of us have a 3rd WR or RB who scores more on average (only 2 WRs and 2 RBs start). I've actually benched Brees many weeks for Nicks, White or DJax.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

The poll is missing an option:- Only the mentally handicapped draft a QB in the 1st round

you're missing the boat. Fantasy football has changed. QB's are at a higher premium than RB's the last few years.

Especially qb's that moonlight as rb's too. It would be like getting to play Deion in and IDP league, when he was a wr2 also, or Blanda in any of Hoart Petersons old leagues when he was a qb1/k1. I don't know, but I'd guess Deion went pretty high in those drafts (but have never done IDP so I don't know the relative values)

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

He's certainly enticing but I'll tell you why I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round and that's because I think he has a higher rate to get injured than most 1st rounders and most Qb's in general. Personally I expect him to get injured (not serious but enough to knock him out of a game) down the stretch. I've stated this the last couple weeks so maybe I'm wrong but I don't think he's learned a lot in terms of how to not get hit when he is running. He doesn't know how to slide and he does take some hits.It's starting to get cold outside, we'll see if that plays an effect on Mike Vick down the stretch as well.Mike Vick has played awesome this year, I wouldn't take him as my 1st round pick to start off an entire season. If I was playing 1 week and all defenses are considered the same, I could take him in the 1st round.

this year was one of those years when he did get hurt and look what he's done...he's crushing every QB by a considerable margin when he plays. You pair him up with Kolb with your last pick as insurance and you're set except for the bye week.

Then I guess you know who your first and 15th round pick is next year if Vick is still in Philly, which I Imagine he would be.

well in 2 of 3 leagues (did one random cbs one) I get to keep him at 18/10, but I would be elated to end up with Vick as my 1st rd pick in the other league. Where he will go top or higher depending on who gets what picks. There is one guy in the league who I know beyond any shadow of a doubt would take vick with the first pick, and might even trade the farm to do so.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

for getting the poll choices correct IMOObviously scoring affects things, but IMO in a standard league, NO quarterback is a first round pick but Vick WOULD be a first round pick in either a 2 QB league or a league where you can flex a QB

are there leagues where you can flex a qb? wouldn't those just be de facto 2 qb leagues unless you are a moron (or can't field a 2nd qb due to injury/scarcity)

depends on scoring. In my redraft, we allow QB for flex but the #13-24 QBs score around 8-10 ppg, most of us have a 3rd WR or RB who scores more on average (only 2 WRs and 2 RBs start). I've actually benched Brees many weeks for Nicks, White or DJax.

8-10 pts a game? I guess if you beat the qb scoring down to where it is equivalent to the other positions (which it seems you did-- NTTAWWT) I could see not starting a qb but in most leagues any non suxor-qb should be able to post better #'s than a flex player.I just plucked this week so it's a sample size of 1 but these were the 13-24 qbs based on the week 12 stats page. 11-19 points is a pretty good day out of your flex unless your team is insane. And qb pts are much steadier than flex wrs/rbs. Much higher floor.

13 QB  Hill, Shaun				  DET  1   27   46  285	1	2	4   23	0	0 18.6 14 QB  Manning, Peyton			  IND  1   31   48  285	2	4	0	0	0	0 18.3 15 QB  Garrard, David			   JAX  1   20   35  162	0	1	6   41	1	1 17.2 16 QB  Schaub, Matt				 HOU  1   25   35  178	2	0	2   -2	0	0 16.7 17 QB  Kitna, Jon				   DAL  1   30   42  313	0	1	5   20	0	0 16.6 18 QB  Fitzpatrick, Ryan			BUF  1   23   45  265	1	1	2	4	0	0 16.6 19 QB  Freeman, Josh				TB   1   17   37  162	1	0	6   27	0	0 14.8 20 QB  Gradkowski, Bruce			OAK  1   17   32  252	1	2	0	0	0	0 14.6 21 QB  McNabb, Donovan			  WAS  1   21   35  211	1	1	2	7	0	0 14.3 22 QB  Roethlisberger, Ben		  PIT  1   20   33  246	0	0	1   18	0	0 14.1 23 QB  Ryan, Matt				   ATL  1   24   28  197	1	0	0	0	0	0 13.8 24 QB  Sanchez, Mark				NYJ  1   16   28  166	1	1	3   -4	0	0 10.9