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Woohoo! The annual V.Jackson thread!He was top 15 in my league last year, and as an owner I can only hope he continues to put up good numbers. He was good down the stretch last year, and hopefully Rivers has enough confidence in him now to keep getting him the ball.
Tell that to the VJax owners.
I didn't see any inability to gain separation last year. He's very quick for being 6'5 230 pounds. Believe he ran the 40 in 4.5 flat. At that size that's pretty impressive. He also has a career 17 plus yards per reception, among the best in the league. Reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall.
I don't get the comp to Marshall. I realize they're similar in size but VJax just seems so lanky which sounds ridiculous at 240lbs. Marshall is much closer to a possession receiver compared to Jackson's deep threat usage. We're comparing 12 y/c to 17 y/c.
4.41, I watch a lot of Chargers games and have no clue what the previous poster is talking about. He seemed to separate fine this season. Rivers sharing the ball? VJax made Chambers irrelevant. I don't think Jackson is as good as Marshall after the catch, but prior to I'd say it's pretty evenHe's top 20 WR. Without the DUI's, he starts inching up to top 10 probably should already be there in distance scoring leaguesfruity pebbles said:
When did Vincent Jackson run a 4.5? Recently?I'll admit I didn't watch every single Chargers game. So maybe Loose Circuits or others may have seen something I didn't. With my eyes...I don't see a lot of seperation. And I was primarily pointing out other fbg'ers strongest negative opinion about him. On a 1-10 separation scale. Vincent is not even close to a 10. Me being generous Ill give him an 8 barely. Nobody has argued my point of Vincent Jackson lack of fire to attack the ball when contested. He has improved in this area. But still doesn't bring the energy and effort to every play. Watch the film. When he is by himself. His eyes are wide open. Other times when semi-covered or tightly played his eyes, his body, his legs and his energy are lacking. His on and off switch has a motion sensor to his defender. The farther they are he is on. The closer defenders get he dims. I can and will stand by wholeheartedly. Vincent Jackson yards PER catch is 17 or 18 as you say. Ok. I never looked it up or had direct knowledge of the number. Nice to know my recognition skills are somewhat keen. VJackson signature play is just that, an 18+ yard post or straight up the sideline usually for a TD or the occasional big play, while lined up way wide. I used to say the number was 20+ but have since dropped that a bit. His ypc is high because he catches bombs. Not because he turns 5-8 yard passes into much larger gains. His yac ability on short passes must be very low. Is there any way to look this up? Brandon Marshall must destroy him in this category. The Brandon Marshal comparison is bad. Real bad. VJ will never have the athleticism, hands, jumping ability, fire, physical nature, catching under duress/contact(ala fitzgerald) or yac yards. Other than height and weight....they are nothing alike. Their build and stature are not the same. Vjax has broader lats and shoulders. His chest and trunk at wider than Marshalls. I willing to bet(gentlemens version) he cannot and doesnt repeat this seasons production. Being a Charger fan...I hate to say it.
Making the catch. They are two completely different beings.
I'm not even sure if we're talking about the same player. VJax has very good hands. He's also very good at burning a defense deep with his speed and athleticism. Only thing stopping him from being elite on the field is the number of targets he receives. Really the only negative i can see when watching him is his yards after the catch ability. He's not a monster after contact ala Boldin. Few numbers for you. He had less than 5 drop balls last year. He had so few he wasnt even on the list. Brandon Marshall had 12. He was tied for 1st in the AFC in plays over 25 yards. He was first in the NFL in % of catches that go for 1st downs- 88%. He's a big play receiver in the mold of Plax Burress. Better hands imo, not quite as good after contact. Take him out of the San Diego offense and it becomes much easier to defend. You should be happy to have him.
I watched as many Chargers games as I could last season but I am on the east coast so I missed several. My impression is that Jackson played very well... not sure if greyone just saw different games than I did or what.
Think the RB targets decrease quite a bit. They were off the charts (about 40-50 targets higher than the last few years) mainly due to Gates and Chambers being hurt some imo. I think both those guys targets increase and it comes at the expense of the RBs. Jackson's role of stretching the field is pretty secure. I don't see the 3rd WR getting much more since SD doesn't use a lot of 3 WR sets.I watched as many Chargers games as I could last season given I am on the east coast. My impression was that Jackson played very well... not sure if greyone just saw different games than I did or what.
IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:
The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. Previous post on him in the Chargers offseason thread:
I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.
Well, Turner has been there only two years, so I'm not sure it makes sense to look at targets prior to 2007. In 2007, the RBs had 120 targets and the TEs had 132. Compare that to 2008, when the RBs had 138 and the TEs had 111. That is close to a wash when combining their targets.I agree Gates will get more targets, I'm just not certain at whose expense. I have a hard time believing the RB targets will go down substantially. Sproles really emerged as a threat last season, averaging 11.8 ypr (better than Gates, who averaged 11.7). With Sproles, LT (8.2 ypr), Hester (7.6 ypr), and Tolbert (13.2 ypr), the RBs were quite productive. Unlike many teams, the Chargers don't target their WRs as much on short patterns... they have tended to use the RBs and TEs more for that.
I think things will remain pretty much status quo in terms of targets next year with the exception of RB targets decreasing and tight end targets increasing but a fairly equal net effect. The 2nd and 3rd WR receiving numbers were pretty constant from what they've been the last few years. #2 and #3 caught 60 balls this year, 55 the year before and 63 the year before that.
Back to backI watched as many Chargers games as I could last season but I am on the east coast so I missed several. My impression is that Jackson played very well... not sure if greyone just saw different games than I did or what.
IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:
The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. He played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on those limited targets.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.
So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.
The lengthy receptions do not surprise me one bit. Those are signature VJax plays.
Yes. He has a legit stud QB, and a slightly above average guy cross from him, who doesn't have the big play potential of VJax.I think Jackson is a classic case of a guy that needed a few years to catch up with his physical traits. I missed the boat on this guy, and it was probably because of a little backlash on my part towards the hype over his physical skills, and I wasn't seeing it on the field. He was improving, and I think there's a real good chance he is talked about among the top WRs this time next year.
As I showed above, I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets, given the competition from the RBs, TEs, and other WRs. Jackson had 101 targets during the 2008 regular season, plus he had 9 targets in 2 playoff games. But those numbers were arguably inflated at least a bit due to injuries to Gates and Chambers.The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often.Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr) 3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr) Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. It certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.
I'd like to see your projected breakdown of targets for the Chargers if you think Jackson can get 70/1175/9, much less 80/1300/10. He'd probably need 120+ targets to reach 70 catches, and around 140 targets to reach 80 catches.
that's from a rocky mountain news story. I'm pretty sure I remember him running a 4.41his size/athleticism is comparable to anybody in the league. He's always been there athletically, and I think now he is developing better football skills. I'm still seeing an improvement in his numbers as long as he stays out of trouble
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008...mes-marked-man/
the bolded statistic tells me that he's gonna get his.
Haven't really put these to the test but quickly. 480 attempts- 115 for Gates, 100 for the #2 and 3 WRs, 100 for LT and Sproles. Leaves 165 targets left over for VJax, the fullback, any 4th and 5th WRs and the backup TE.
Brandon Marshall has more dropped passes because he attempts to haul in more difficult passes in traffic. His targets are very high. VJ has less opportunities to succeed or drop passes. Those fewer opportunities also boost the 88% first down catch numbers. The percentage number is a bit overrated considering he only caught 59 balls. One or two incomplete passes will probably drop 10-15 percentage points. Law of averages always favors the person with a smaller sample size than larger sample size. I do give credit to VJ cor catching alot of 1st downs. But am not overly impressed by the 88% number. Although 70% 1st down rate is still very good. In a redraft how many of you guys would take Vincent Jackson(year end 12 rank) over Brandon Marshall(year end 11 rank)? Redraft will you take Vincent Jackson over...(these 20-25 guys who finished behind VJ last season)Reggie Wayne? NoDwayne Bowe? NoSantana Moss? MaybeEddie Royal? NoWes Welker? NoLee Evans? MaybeDesaun Jackson? NoHines Ward? Probably not. Jericho Cotchery? No...QB situation sucks but...who else will catch passes in NYJ green?Houshmanzadeh? NoSantonio Holmes? NoMarques Colston? NoBraylon Edwards? NoJason Witten? NoAntonio Gates? NoTony Gonzalez? maybe to probablyDonnie Avery? Lone wr in St Louis.Plaxico Burress? NoChad Johnson(Ocho Cinco)? No.Lav Coles? Maybe to probably.Roy Williams? No.Crabtree? No.Maclin, DHB, Nicks? VJax should be taken ahead of these guys. Had to mention the new guys. Even though rookies aren't normally impact fantasy players. Remember this is a redraft question.Torry Holt? where ever he lands.Please add or subtract from the list as you see fit. 20-22 wrs(not counting last seasons top 10), I easily will select ahead of Vincent Jackson. Forcing his ADP way down on my list. Making him a great value play AFTER these guys. But selecting him ahead of 15 of these guys is not a smart fantasy strategy. I cannot justify taking VJ with a pick before round 5 in a 12 teamer. I don't want to pick him in round 5 either. But the value may be too high to pass in round 5. We constantly hear the saying, "select talent and skill ahead of opportunity and you will be successful in your fantasy league."Vincent Jackson is more skilled and talented than how many of the prior names mentioned?AndWho from the above list will you select behind Vincent Jackson in a redraft? Lets leave dynasty out of this. We can tackle the dynasty question in the next post.
That's a reasonable take.WRs other than Jackson last year combined for 121 targets... IMO it is hard to see that dropping if we are assuming good health for Chambers & Floyd. They combined to miss 5 games last season.RBs other than LT and Sproles last year combined for 27 targets... I could see that dropping, but not if LT and Sproles are combining for only 100 (they had 111 last year)... I don't see the RBs with less than 120 combined.115 targets is reasonable for Gates. He had 117 in 2007 and 119 in 2006.Manu has averaged 17 targets per season since coming to San Diego. It seems likely he'll continue to get an average of roughly one target per game.I suppose people can debate some of the details, but IMO there is absolutely no justification to project Jackson to get 140 targets, and 120 would be a long shot.
No:Wayne/Royal/Holmes/ColstonMaybe:Bowe/S.Moss/Edwards/OchoCinco (add in Marshall)Yes:Welker/Evans/DeSaun J/Ward/Cotchery/Housh/Avery/Burress/Coles/Roy/All rookiesAssuming NO PPR here since it wasn't mentioned.greyone said:
thats about how I see it, but Bowe may be in the No group.
My first thought is they are out of their minds. But in reality it is very hard to rank Dynasty players beyond the first dozen or so obvious choices. It's not like redraft. You could make the argument for almost any of the players between ranks 13 and 30 being anywhere in that range.
Jeff T's redraft dated 4/14 Vincent Jacskson is ranked 27. Puckalicious, would you rank VJ at 13? Where would you rank VJ in a redraft?
Why do you consider him the #3 target. I'd argue that he's now #2 behind Gates. He had 101 targets last year, LT hasn't had that many since 2003. He had 80 the year before, Lt has had more than that once since 2003. Now that Jackson is firmly entrenched as their #1 WR, he's only behind Gates in # of targets imo, especially with LT's career winding down.
