Waiver wire DBs. Who's for real, and who's not? (1 Viewer)

[kawaihae]

For those in big play scoring leagues, the top ranked DBs sometimes look like a crap shoot. They are often corners (some are "no-name" types) who get some Ints and pass defensed, with a few tackles and fumble recoveries thrown in (which ranks them higher than a steady tackling safety who gets you a solid 7-8 tackles a game, but not much else). Now, I'm a long time football fan and FF player, but this is my first year in IDP. When I saw last year's rankings for DBs, my first reaction was... who are these guys?

So I'm looking at the DBs on the waiver wire, and the question is, who is for real, and who is an illusion? I have a theory on two guys out there, and let me know what you think...

I think a good fantasy DB in a "big play" FF system could be one that is 1) a CB playing opposite a #1 "big name" CB that offenses will avoid, 2) is part of a swarming D with a good pass rush that makes the QB rush his throws, and 3) isn't just a complete slug out there. I have no numbers to back this up, but I don't think that any of that is ground breaking and it seems to make sense to me.

Using that criteria, two names that pop out are Nick Harper (Ten) and DeAngelo Hall (Oak). For Harper, it seems that Finnegan is being talked about as an elite corner that teams will avoid throwing toward. And the Ten pass rush is superb. Same could be said for Hall, who is opposite Ashmuga and plays with the Oakland D which really puts the rush on the QB.

This thought process will put these guys ahead of the Eric Wright/Tracy Porter types. Anyone else ahve any ideas on this, or can point out someone else that might be on the list?

 

[Rozelle]

Not sure if that puts guys like Hall and Harper ahead of some of the rooks. Rookie corners are going to be targeted, Porter (New Orleans), Flowers and Carr (Kansas City) are going to get opportunities to make plays. New Orleans high powerd offense, should get Porter plenty of ops.

Hall has potential in a big play format, he's not the cover guy many think he is, he'll see his fair share of ops.

Finnegan is not a so-called shut-down corner, not sure they exist anymore, however no doubt about it, the Tennessee line can get after it, especially up the middle.

 

[kawaihae]

Not sure if that puts guys like Hall and Harper ahead of some of the rooks. Rookie corners are going to be targeted, Porter (New Orleans), Flowers and Carr (Kansas City) are going to get opportunities to make plays. New Orleans high powerd offense, should get Porter plenty of ops.Hall has potential in a big play format, he's not the cover guy many think he is, he'll see his fair share of ops.

Finnegan is not a so-called shut-down corner, not sure they exist anymore, however no doubt about it, the Tennessee line can get after it, especially up the middle.

Thank you for the input. The "rookie corner" rule is something to be considered as well, and it looks like Flowers and Carr are doing more with their opportunities each week (especially Carr).As for Finnegan, I put that mostly because he is #1 in the NFL in INTs and #3 in passes defended. If I were an O coordinator I might look to throw it the other way.

And your bolded comment caught me a little off guard. I've always given weight to DBs when they are on a team with a bad O, simply because the D is on the field more. But (I believe) you are saying that a high powered offense like the Saints puts points on the board, making the other team have to throw the ball to keep up, thereby giving the DBs more chances? Makes sense to me!

 

[kawaihae]

And since the Rookie Corner rule was brought up, maybe someone can give me input on my question that I've always had about it. Isn't it actually a BAD means by which to base a waiver wire pickup for long term success?

Not too educated on it, but isn't it based on the premise that an offensive coordinator and QB "pick on" (i.e. give more opportunities) a rookie CB? Obviously the intent is to gain an advantage by throwing it their way. But, once we see fantasy success from a rookie, doesn't it mean that they've stepped up their play to the point where they are making plays... and are no longer a liability, and should no longer be a target by the QB and O coordinator?

Or do the numbers bear out that QBs pick on rookies for a long period of time, regardless of how many big plays they make?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I hate the word crapshoot, but this is probably a situation where it's warranted. Assuming big plays mean sacks and interceptions, it's really difficult to predict those stats for DBs. Even the very best ball skill DBs will still have significantly more volatile interception numbers than the very best pass rushing DE sack numbers.

If you're looking for year-to-year options, you want corners with elite ball skills, instincts and recovery speed. Unfortunately, as you're noticing, those well-rounded players may see their opportunity limited because teams avoid them. Champ Bailey, for example, has had three INTs or less in six of his ten seasons. Deion Sanders had fewer than five INTs much more often than more than five in his career. Many went crazy over Antonio Cromartie's ten picks last year. He's on pace for eight this season, but has had nine of his twelve career INTs in four games.

I don't have much experience in big play INT leagues, but I think I'd target one very talented corner (erring on the side of just "bad" enough to get regular weekly opportunity) and then try to employ two other strategies. First, I'd be looking for younger corners and under-the-radar safeties with bunches of passes defensed, suggesting that they know how to make plays on the ball and could be in line to turn some of them into INTs -- guys like Johnathan Joseph. Then, I'd strongly consider cycling a roster spot for a corner that's facing a mistake prone QB. Every year, there are a few QBs who throw 16-22 INTs. That's better odds that hoping that this is the week that Cromartie gets his two.

And you've got the rookie corner rule down. All those veteran inconsistent corners started out as the busy rookie corners. It takes a very rare talent -- a Marcus Trufant or Dunta Robinson -- that have the all-around skill to tackle and play the ball. But, again, neither the rookie corner or the established guy are any more likely to be consistent in a big play system. If you can find a guy with ridiculously good ball skills as a rookie -- Cromartie -- he's a good get. But they're so few and far between as to not be worth planning on each season.

 

[Rozelle]

I'll tell ya what I see happen in dynasty leagues; guys will draft rookie corners who are not in a predominant zone scheme. They have a big rookie year and their pattin' themselves on the back for such a good find. They think their set at that position. Then they can't understand what happened the next year/s cause he's not scoring like he was, write it off as a tough break, and go out and do it again.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'll tell ya what I see happen in dynasty leagues; guys will draft rookie corners who are not in a predominant zone scheme. They have a big rookie year and their pattin' themselves on the back for such a good find. They think there set at that position. Then they can't understand what happened the next year/s cause he's not scoring like he was, write it off as a tough break, and go out and do it again.

I see this same thing every year. Sometimes players work out long-term, but more often than not, their numbers fall off.

The shark move is to trade rookie corners soon after this season or before the next season starts...and do it again next year.

 

[corpcow]

I'll tell ya what I see happen in dynasty leagues; guys will draft rookie corners who are not in a predominant zone scheme. They have a big rookie year and their pattin' themselves on the back for such a good find. They think there set at that position. Then they can't understand what happened the next year/s cause he's not scoring like he was, write it off as a tough break, and go out and do it again.

I see this same thing every year. Sometimes players work out long-term, but more often than not, their numbers fall off.

The shark move is to trade rookie corners soon after this season or before the next season starts...and do it again next year.

I tried desperately to trade Cromartie in the off-season, but couldn't find enough value to really make it worthwhile.

 

[The Jacket]

Brandon Carr looks like the real deal. 6-foot, 200lb., sub-4.4 speed and great hands. He got "beat" by Brandon Marshall on a pass that must've been just about 7-foot in the air, but other than that he was all over him and really made some plays. He was always around the ball. I think he's going to be a big-play guy in the (near) future.

 

[kawaihae]

Brandon Carr looks like the real deal. 6-foot, 200lb., sub-4.4 speed and great hands. He got "beat" by Brandon Marshall on a pass that must've been just about 7-foot in the air, but other than that he was all over him and really made some plays. He was always around the ball. I think he's going to be a big-play guy in the (near) future.

Yeah, goes to show that once the benefits of the rookie corner rule wear off, it all boils down to talent. Carr looks good..

 

[KellysHeroes]

Better pick up Tramon Williams... he had a great day w/ 10 solos. Has long Al Harris is out, hes money.

 

[pretender]

Brandon Carr looks like the real deal. 6-foot, 200lb., sub-4.4 speed and great hands. He got "beat" by Brandon Marshall on a pass that must've been just about 7-foot in the air, but other than that he was all over him and really made some plays. He was always around the ball. I think he's going to be a big-play guy in the (near) future.

8 tackles this week!

 

[pretender]

Better pick up Tramon Williams... he had a great day w/ 10 solos. Has long Al Harris is out, hes money.

ssssshhhhh

 

[kawaihae]

Ugghhh. I followed my ideas and Harper and Hall have served me well. Now Hall is gone, so where to turn? I was thinking that Dwight Lowery was a great fit, especially considering the development of Revis. But the Rookie Corner Rule shows that there can be bad following the good. In this case, he was picked on for most of the year, giving him the chance for some points. But now he might be benched.

Where to turn on the waiver wire? Jonathan Joseph? Paymeh for the time being?

I hate the word crapshoot, but this is probably a situation where it's warranted. Assuming big plays mean sacks and interceptions, it's really difficult to predict those stats for DBs. Even the very best ball skill DBs will still have significantly more volatile interception numbers than the very best pass rushing DE sack numbers.

And one big thing that wasn't mentioned was passes defended, which is a big part of the "big play" scoring systems I see.

 

[Jman]

First, I'd be looking for younger corners and under-the-radar safeties with bunches of passes defensed, suggesting that they know how to make plays on the ball and could be in line to turn some of them into INTs -- guys like Johnathan Joseph.

Mentioned.

And one big thing that wasn't mentioned was passes defended, which is a big part of the "big play" scoring systems I see.