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Waiver Wire Defenses - Playoffs Edition (1 Viewer)

I think this is a pretty important topic. The kind that wins FF championships.

This all presumes you are willing to spend 2-4 roster spots on a DST, which I think is a good way to go.

Good opposing matchups always are best with: 1. games at home, 2. vs backup QBs, 3. playing for coaches who are about to get fired. If you hit the trifecta you're gold. - The Texans are the only ones that fit that mold right now.

Looking at the last few weeks I think it's MIN that really stands out as a great matchup. What's more (though Vikes fans tell me I'm wrong) I have a sneaking suspicion we have not seen the last of Josh Freeman, the Vikes spent 3.5 mill and I think the front office or maybe just ownership wants to see what the heck they paid for. Not a prediction, just a maybe and if it happens you can be sure there will be a rush to the wire for those defenses that face them.

Another fallback is anyone playing the Jets (wk 14 vs Oak, wk 16 vs CLE) I just think they're better at home - watch what happens today with Smith & Simms; these guys might all believe they are playing for Rex's job and I think they do indeed love the big guy. This is one of those deals where I can't tell whether to get the opposing DST or the DST for that team itself. Another part of the problem is that the Oak and Cle defenses are pretty mediocre. {ETA: the Jets actually got worse}.

The Browns are the same way. Facing them doesn't seem bad because of Weeden, just don't be surprised if Gordon drops 2 TDs on your DST. Their DST cannot be trusted in my opinion.

Jax always appears to be the primo matchup, but are the Jags getting better and does Keenum reemerge? Jags also get games at home.

So far I like:

Wk 14: BAL vs MIN

Wk 14: Oak @ NYJ

Wk 15: PHI @ MIN

Wk 15: BUF @ Jax

Wk 15: IND vs Hou (watch if IND playing decently?)

Wk 15: Dal vs GB (if Flynn starts)

Wk 16: CIN vs MIN

Wk 16: TEN @ Jax (if TEN is in the playoff hunt you have to love this matchup)

Wk 16: DEN @Hou (likely not available)

Wk 16: CLE @ NYJ

Wk 16: Pit @ GB (if Flynn starts)

Overall I don't see a lot of jump right off the paper great matchups this year.

Let's see how the Jets do at home today, they have been better they're than on the road. Carolina vs NYJ wk 15 is pretty much the dream playoff matchup.

BUF: I have to say I am really not sure about the Bills. Look at their record as a DST, and the fact that TB & Jax have actually been playing better, you might want to look at how TB & Jax have been fairing against teams lately, it's been ok.

TB: to tell you the truth I think the Bucs might be a good matchup at home vs BUF wk 14.

PHI: I think these guys may be sleepers. I don't love the AZ matchup, but Philly may in fact do well today. PHI is hot overall and they generally have a sweet schedule for the rest of the year for their offensive players, so why not for their defense? What's more everyone thinks of them a being bad from earlier in the year so they are more than likely easy to snag. Week 16 is tricky, they get CHI at home but then I cannot tell if it's better with Cutler in there or not at thi point. - Best bet: wk 15 @ MIN.

BAL: wk 14 vs MIN at home - don't let the PIT game scare you, that was a stay away game vs a hated division opponent fighting for its playoff life and Ben has really been coming on. MIN is still a great start. Wk 15 & 16 vs DET & NE stink though.

AZ: sorry, I don't like any of @PHI, STL, @TEN or @SEA.

GB: wk 14 vs ATL, IF Rodgers comes back and IF the Pack still have a shot at the division, then there will be hell to pay that day.

IND: wk 15 vs HOU should be a great matchup... if it weren't for the fact the Colts have been so bad themselves lately. If Indy shows up again today and next week then this is looking good.

 
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I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???

 
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I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???
My guess is Campbell with be able to play since he was feeling better this past Friday, and maybe even Weeden will be fine. They might keep the Patriots guessing.

 
I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???
My guess is Campbell with be able to play since he was feeling better this past Friday, and maybe even Weeden will be fine. They might keep the Patriots guessing.
Ok, so assuming Campbell can play, is the New England D trustworthy at home or does Gordon alone make anyone give pause?

Houston did just fine vs the Pats today... granted, the Pats were on the road.

 
I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???
My guess is Campbell with be able to play since he was feeling better this past Friday, and maybe even Weeden will be fine. They might keep the Patriots guessing.
Ok, so assuming Campbell can play, is the New England D trustworthy at home or does Gordon alone make anyone give pause?

Houston did just fine vs the Pats today... granted, the Pats were on the road.
BB always gameplans against his opponent's best player. I'm pretty sure Gordon will not have a great game compared to his usual output.

 
What's not to like about Arizona versus St Louis or Ten?

Also think Cincy has a nice schedule.
Consolidated your two posts because those are my two defenses. Arizona came up small against Philly today, but they are an elite real-life D, so it's hard to hate them too much in fantasy. I'll probably alternate Cinci/Arizona/Cinci the rest of the way, just because I love getting the Bengals at home, though I agree Arizona has a good match-up next week as well. Don't love Cinci @ Pitt Week 15 or Arizona @ Seattle Week 16.

 
I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???
My guess is Campbell with be able to play since he was feeling better this past Friday, and maybe even Weeden will be fine. They might keep the Patriots guessing.
Ok, so assuming Campbell can play, is the New England D trustworthy at home or does Gordon alone make anyone give pause?

Houston did just fine vs the Pats today... granted, the Pats were on the road.
BB always gameplans against his opponent's best player. I'm pretty sure Gordon will not have a great game compared to his usual output.
Agree. Bill will be analyzing every move Gordon made these last two games tonight and tomm and figure out a way to contain him.

 
i may actually have to roll with jax to fill week 14. :mellow: then car and ten. we'll see if anyone's stupid and drops a good matchup once waivers process.

 
I was thinking New England was close to a lock next week at home vs the Browns, but can they stop Josh Gordon?

ETA: With Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden all out, they may really be in trouble at QB. Alex Tanney???
My guess is Campbell with be able to play since he was feeling better this past Friday, and maybe even Weeden will be fine. They might keep the Patriots guessing.
Ok, so assuming Campbell can play, is the New England D trustworthy at home or does Gordon alone make anyone give pause?

Houston did just fine vs the Pats today... granted, the Pats were on the road.
BB always gameplans against his opponent's best player. I'm pretty sure Gordon will not have a great game compared to his usual output.
Agree. Bill will be analyzing every move Gordon made these last two games tonight and tomm and figure out a way to contain him.
I kinda think the NE defense can have a good game and Gordon can still make some noise. While BB is obviously a great coach, Gordon is all the Browns have on offense (OK, maybe Cameron, too) so I'm assuming he was the focus of the defense the last two weeks as well... he's had awful QBs throwing him the ball and he STILL had around 450 yards.

Maybe he'll have a game like Andre Johnson had against them today... around 110 yards without a TD. If they can hold him to that at home, I can't see any other player doing much and the D should have a nice game.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
i may actually have to roll with jax to fill week 14. :mellow: then car and ten. we'll see if anyone's stupid and drops a good matchup once waivers process.
I was thinking about them as well. They played really well @ Hou 2 weeks ago. It's either them or someone from the Oak/NYJ matchup. I was hoping Geno Smith would get the start as he has been a turnover machine, but Garrard may start so not sure how well he will do.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
i may actually have to roll with jax to fill week 14. :mellow: then car and ten. we'll see if anyone's stupid and drops a good matchup once waivers process.
I was thinking about them as well. They played really well @ Hou 2 weeks ago. It's either them or someone from the Oak/NYJ matchup. I was hoping Geno Smith would get the start as he has been a turnover machine, but Garrard may start so not sure how well he will do.
Am considering both Thursday Night defenses - I think Jax may actually be a good play.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
i may actually have to roll with jax to fill week 14. :mellow: then car and ten. we'll see if anyone's stupid and drops a good matchup once waivers process.
I was thinking about them as well. They played really well @ Hou 2 weeks ago. It's either them or someone from the Oak/NYJ matchup. I was hoping Geno Smith would get the start as he has been a turnover machine, but Garrard may start so not sure how well he will do.
Am considering both Thursday Night defenses - I think Jax may actually be a good play.
Keenum has only had two road starts out of his six. He actually had okay stat lines @KC and @AZ but has had 1 INT in his last home starts. Jacksonville has won three of four, so at least they haven't quit on the season. I want to believe Houston doesn't get excited for this game after losing to NE and Indy next week, but that could be donkey thinking.

I think might roll with them and pray.

 
I'm rolling with TN at home vs. Arizona week 15 and Cincy at home vs. MN week 16. I've looked for better matchups week 15 and none are available in my league. SF playing too well to take TB, don't like NE at Miami, etc. Could play Cincy at Pitt but I don't think that will be great. I think TN is tough enough against the pass to potentially give Palmer and company some trouble. He threw a couple picks yesterday on the road against Philly, see more of the same on the road at TN. Cincy in week 16 is juicy.

 
I picked up the Jets to use for the playoffs. Not feeling extremely confident about that though.
Yeah, Smith keeps giving the opposing offense a short field. Always need to keep in mind how good your team's defense is on offense. If Garrard is named the starter, he just needs to sustain some drives and not turn the ball over as frequently. Jets are very good vs. the run - will need to wait to see the status on Jennings. if DMC goes, Oakland won't be able to run and I don't think I would trust McGloin on a lot of 3rd and longs.

 
RBM said:
buddhacwru said:
BB always gameplans against his opponent's best player. I'm pretty sure Gordon will not have a great game compared to his usual output.
Agree. Bill will be analyzing every move Gordon made these last two games tonight and tomm and figure out a way to contain him.
Talib will be huge in that regard... combined with scheme, I'm rather bearish on Gordon's prospects to completely wreck your day from a DST perspective. I'd absolutely still play Gordon where I had him though.

 
Picked up the bills last week and rolling with them.
They only netted 8 points in my league yesterday. I can't see a reason to want to start them in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Bucs in Tampa this week.....a 'middle of the road' type of matchup.....just don't see the logic. They are available in my league and I am looking at teams like Jax/Tampa Bay and maybe NO over the Bills. Tell me why you like em.

 
I'm tired of getting screwed over by the waiver wire defense du jour. This past weekend the Bills were terrible. I'm rolling with the Chiefs from here on out and hoping Houston gets healthy soon.

 
Just rollign the Bengals in one league, benched them for the browns this past week based on match up and it burned me

Sure the game @pitt isnt great but there isnt anything better that week,

In another league Im just rolling Seattle at SF, they play very well vs Kaep, should be a FG battle

 
Steelers? Home v. Miami with freezing temps and snow showers forecast, home against Cincy, at GB with god knows which QB. I realize they haven't put up many points, but neither have teams like Houston and Detroit (until this week).

 
I'm going to stick with Baltimore in week 14 against the Vikings, even though they burned me against Pittsburgh. There aren't really any better options on the wire other than maybe the Raiders.

I'm worried about weeks 15 and 16 though. None of the available options have good matchups.

 
Braktastic said:
I'm tired of getting screwed over by the waiver wire defense du jour. This past weekend the Bills were terrible. I'm rolling with the Chiefs from here on out and hoping Houston gets healthy soon.
My exact situation. Fingers crossed.

 
Isotopes said:
Picked up the bills last week and rolling with them.
They only netted 8 points in my league yesterday. I can't see a reason to want to start them in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Bucs in Tampa this week.....a 'middle of the road' type of matchup.....just don't see the logic. They are available in my league and I am looking at teams like Jax/Tampa Bay and maybe NO over the Bills. Tell me why you like em.
I get what you're saying, I'm a Bills fan AND started them for 8 points. However, they lead the league in sacks and are tied for the lead in interceptions. They haven't had the TDs of the elite defenses, and they've given up a lot of yardage and points. The have looked like a team that is working through growing pains, and have some solid matchups remaining. While I agree that they might not be the slam dunk we hoped they might be, the matchups are still nice, and if you can't do better... You could do worse! :)

 
RBM said:
buddhacwru said:
BB always gameplans against his opponent's best player. I'm pretty sure Gordon will not have a great game compared to his usual output.
Agree. Bill will be analyzing every move Gordon made these last two games tonight and tomm and figure out a way to contain him.
Talib will be huge in that regard... combined with scheme, I'm rather bearish on Gordon's prospects to completely wreck your day from a DST perspective. I'd absolutely still play Gordon where I had him though.
NE D will be huge if CLE is forced to start a #3 QB.

 
What kind of value does a D hold at this point ?

Our league seems to have no trade deadline that has passed as of yet ( not that it matters much cause there's only been like five trades all season).

I've got the Panthers D but the two NO games are worrying me. Thinking of trying to get Bengals D off a guy who isn't making playoffs

At this point, for a playoff run, I'm guessing that anything that improves your chances in the playoff weeks is valuable even if it's a D or a kicker. I have five good WRs and thinking about giving up one that I prob won't use again this season barring injuries.

I'm seeing nothing on the waiver wire that instills any confidence at this point and will prob just stick with Panthers all way through if can't get Bengals

Our week 14 is last week or regular season and I'm already in so it doesn't count so much

I'm guessing just go for it, trade away depth that you have if it can hopefully improve your starting lineup in any of the three weeks left

 
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Staring at the following options in my league:

HOU @ JAX -- Jacksonville has been a tougher opponent in recent weeks, but Thursday night games generally favor the defenses. Still worth a shot potentially based on the weak opponent (Jacksonville pretty much has Shorts that can hurt you) and the short week.

BUF @ TB -- Tampa too has come on recently, and BUF has been quite generous with the points. They still get sacks (6 last week) but the Tampa O-line is better than that of Atlanta's, and Roddy just carved the BUF secondary. I'd expect VJax to do the same. Rainey and the Bucs running game is probably at least on par with Atlanta's if not a bit stronger. I don't love this matchup, and will probably be moving on from BUF. However, they get JAX away and MIA in Buffalo to close out the season, so may be worth trying to stash.

NO vs. CAR -- We've seen the Superdome take down bigger opponents than this Carolina team, but this one just doesn't feel like a strong matchup for NO. They just got absolutely throttled by Seattle, so there's plenty of motivation to get back on track, plus the division is on the line. As a Panthers fan, I cringe to think about Byron Bell trying to hold up against one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, but the rest of the line is solid. Cam's been playing quite well, and I wouldn't expect more than a turnover or maybe two. NO is much improved on D, but I can't get comfortable with this one given CAR has been one of the 10 worst DST matchups in the league.

Other options include both sides of the DET/PHI game, and while I love DET's front 7, the back-end is a complete mess. I do believe that team's got a real chance to build something special with their DST for those of us in dynasty leagues, but I don't trust them this week at all. Philly has been better lately, but DET is a nightmare matchup for them (3rd toughest DST matchup in the league). If I had to pick one of them, I'd go DET and trust that pass rush and front-7 to dominate enough to keep it respectable.

Hopefully someone found this helpful for their league... I'm going Houston provided I get them off waivers.

 
Right now, my hope is Carolina vs. NYJ in Week 15 and then Tennessee vs. Jacksonville in Week 16 if I make it that far.

 
I'm going to stick with Baltimore in week 14 against the Vikings, even though they burned me against Pittsburgh. There aren't really any better options on the wire other than maybe the Raiders.

I'm worried about weeks 15 and 16 though. None of the available options have good matchups.
Im whichu. With a little luck nobody will come off the sideline and prevent a DST this week.

 
I know it sounds crazy, but im sticking with the Giants.

San Diego hasn't played lights out and the Giants D is turning a corner.

Seattle AND another home game vs Washington in December is a sneaky play IMO. Only thing I'm worried about is the Chiefs game.

Other than that, they have been as consistent as they come the past 5 weeks and I've been winning.

 
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Picked up the bills last week and rolling with them.
They only netted 8 points in my league yesterday. I can't see a reason to want to start them in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Bucs in Tampa this week.....a 'middle of the road' type of matchup.....just don't see the logic. They are available in my league and I am looking at teams like Jax/Tampa Bay and maybe NO over the Bills. Tell me why you like em.
I get what you're saying, I'm a Bills fan AND started them for 8 points. However, they lead the league in sacks and are tied for the lead in interceptions. They haven't had the TDs of the elite defenses, and they've given up a lot of yardage and points. The have looked like a team that is working through growing pains, and have some solid matchups remaining. While I agree that they might not be the slam dunk we hoped they might be, the matchups are still nice, and if you can't do better... You could do worse! :)
I followed the sharks, but mostly like them against JAX and thought they were playing at home in the weather. Got lucky here as it didn't hurt me. I'm thinking of picking up SD vs NYG who are terrible or PIT vs MIA in the slop. Leaning to PIT for the weather and they need to run the table to have an outside shot at playoffs.

 
I've got Carolina and San Fran this weekend... I scoured the wire.. and you know what.. screw it.. I'm rolling with Carolina... I don't trust the Jets or Oakland to do any better.

I realize the saints are a different team in the Superdome, but they are on a short week...

 
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I've got Carolina and San Fran this weekend... I scoured the wife.. and you know what.. screw it.. I'm rolling with Carolina... I don't trust the Jets or Oakland to do any better.

I realize the saints are a different team in the Superdome, but they are on a short week...
Is your wife ok?

 
I've got Carolina and San Fran this weekend... I scoured the wife.. and you know what.. screw it.. I'm rolling with Carolina... I don't trust the Jets or Oakland to do any better.

I realize the saints are a different team in the Superdome, but they are on a short week...
Dude! TMI! :yucky:

I'll probably bench Carolina, since I picked up STL a few weeks ago for just this reason. But I don't think they're a must-sit, especially if your WW options suck. They're still elite.

 
Holding TEN (ARI, JAX), BUF (JAX, MIA), and NEP (MIA, BAL) right now. Hoping to scoop up PHI (MIN, CHI) off waivers tonight, if for no other reason than to block. So I can face Jacksonville or Miami in both weeks, or Cards/Minny & Chicago/Baltimore. Unlikely to play NEP vs. Baltimore as it reduces my scoring potential variance (own Torrey Smith & Ray Rice), but will hold them as late as possible to make sure my opponent can't start them against me as well (increasing his variance).

 
Titans schedule looks pretty good after this week. Arizona and Jax weeks 15 and 16.
I can't get with the Titans. Cardinal and Jaguars are both much improved recently.
Yeah the Jags are playing better, put they're still not an offensive juggernaunt. And Palmer is good for a few sacks and a turnover or 2 every game it seems. You could certainly do worse over the last 2 weeks than the Titans.

 
Detroit?

  • 14: at Eagles (Rank: 11th)
  • 15: vs Ravens (Rank: 25th)
  • 16: vs Giants (Rank: 32nd)
They will be fighting for the division title and playing at home 2 weeks out of 3. Their potential value may depend upon your scoring settings. (I expect them to accrue sacks and turnovers but also allow yards and points.)
their secondary makes me very nervous, but ravens and giants are both kind of crummy offenses with sketchy o-lines.

eli manning is one pick behind geno for the league lead, at 18, and flacco isn't far behind in 5th with 14.

also, both of those are home games, where det seems much stronger.

DET def posting lowest snap totals the last 2 weeks -- here's their snap counts from week 7 on:

wk7 v CIN 57, wk8 v DAL 57, BYE, wk10 @CHI 75, wk11 @PIT 77, wk12 v TB 52, wk13 v GB 43

ansah was injured weeks 8 - 11

to put that in perspective, an average snap count might be around 67

as comparison, here are snaps for seattle's def over the same week 7-13 period --- sea is typically one of the lower snap totals week to week.

75 76 69 58 74 BYE 60

edit:

I looked up a couple more stats

balt is 4th in sacks allowed at 39, with nyg around average at 31

balt is second worst in yards/play at 4.6 -- just behind jacksonville's 4.5

giants are 7th worst at 5.1

 
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