Waiver Wire Kicker Strategy (1 Viewer)

[ourmanflint]

Ah the kicker. Unpredictable and maddening. You seem to pick up the hot ones and they cool down. You drop them

and they go for 13. Rankings don't seem to help and, often times, playing matchups seems to befuddle. So what

can you do? I offer some sort of method to the madness. Forgive me if this strategy has been covered before.

In this case I defer to the original poster.

You will notice that, when the bye weeks start to kick in, you will find 3 to 5 top 10 kickers sitting on the

waiver wire. Some weeks even more. Of course, several of these will be on their bye weeks. But some will not.

So which one do you pick up, if any?

Note: we assume standard scoring where the kicker gains 3 pts for each FG and 1 pt for each XP.

Assuming 6 points or below is a bad performance and anything above 6 is good, you will find that top 10 kickers

tend to "bounce back" after a poor performance. This "bounce back" normally occurs the next game and almost always

after 2 consecutive bad performances. Here are some figures from 2007 for the top 10 kickers:

- 31 of 40 times (77%) they bounced back after 1 bad performance

- Of those that didn't, 7 of 9 (77%) bounced back after 2 bad performances

- Of those remaining 2, both bounced back after the 3rd bad performance

- in all cases, the "bounce back" was to an average of 10 pts or more

So the strategy would seem to be to pick up the kicker who has had 1 or 2 (consecutive) subpar performances. Last year we were

burned only twice using this strategy. Of course, the top ten kicker list is in flux during the year. But after

the bye weeks are in full swing (around week 6 or 7), we have a pretty solid idea of who is on their game and

which offenses are moving the ball enough to give their kickers some opportunities.

In examining kicker performances this year we can see that the strategy still works. I've noted the bounce back

weeks for the top 13 kickers. A "bounce back" is denoted as W1-W2 where W1 is the bad performance week and W2 is

the bounce back week. If it took 2 weeks to bounce back it would appear as W1/W2-W3.

Edit to add this years bounce back stats:

Carney 6-7

Bryant 2-3

Kaeding 1-2, 5-6, 7-8

Nedney 5-6, 7-8

Akers 5-6

Kasay 3/4-5, 6-7

Gostowski 1-2, 6-7

Suisham 1-2, 3-4, 6/7-8

Longwell 4-5, 6-7

Lindell 3-4, 5-7 (bye week)

Gould 2-3, 4-5

Bironas 1/2-3

Crosby 1-2, 4/5-6

Ok so who is looking good this week based on this theory?

* Jason Elam only had 2 pts in week 8

* Matt Prater scored 5 pts in week 6 and 1 pt in week 7 (but warning...Prater is not currently a 10 ten kicker)

 

[FantasyTrader]

You just spent more time on K than I've spent in my entire life. And I just pulled ahead of 95% of the fantasy community by posting this. Good research though.

 

[Harjiran]

I follow a few general rules regarding kickers:

1) I never carry more than one K on my roster at any given time (i.e., I drop my kicker when he reaches his bye, and pick a new on off the WW -- preferably one who's already had his bye week). The only time I might deviate from this strategy is if a K is having an unreal season, like Neil Rackers a couple seasons ago or Adam Vinatieri when he was with NE. But then I have to ask myself whether I really want to drop that extra RB or WR I've stashed for the future so I can carry an extra K for one week.

2) I prefer kickers from teams with good-not-great offenses. Last season, Gostkowski was pretty good but the NE offense was so high-powered and efficient in the red zone that he rarely attempted any FGs. A typical stat-line would be 5/5 PATs, 0 FGs. That's not what I want from my kicker. I want the kicker's team to be able to move the ball between the 20s and then maybe struggle a little bit when it comes to the red zone.

3) Truthfully, these points aside, I don't sweat kickers too much. Typically there's not a great difference, FF points-wise, between the #5 kicker and the #20 kicker. It's always a nice when your K blows up but as long as he's connecting on 2-3 PATs and 1-2 FGs per week, I'm satisfied. If my K gets in a rut, I drop him and grab one of the 5 or 6 other decent kickers who are out there on the waiver wire.

My three cents, for what they're worth.

 

[TommyGilmore]

My strategy is pretty simple:

- figure out which defenses have allowed the most kick attempts (FGA + XPA)

- grab the best-available kicker based on those stats

 

[ourmanflint]

I follow a few general rules regarding kickers:1) I never carry more than one K on my roster at any given time (i.e., I drop my kicker when he reaches his bye, and pick a new on off the WW -- preferably one who's already had his bye week). The only time I might deviate from this strategy is if a K is having an unreal season, like Neil Rackers a couple seasons ago or Adam Vinatieri when he was with NE. But then I have to ask myself whether I really want to drop that extra RB or WR I've stashed for the future so I can carry an extra K for one week.2) I prefer kickers from teams with good-not-great offenses. Last season, Gostkowski was pretty good but the NE offense was so high-powered and efficient in the red zone that he rarely attempted any FGs. A typical stat-line would be 5/5 PATs, 0 FGs. That's not what I want from my kicker. I want the kicker's team to be able to move the ball between the 20s and then maybe struggle a little bit when it comes to the red zone. 3) Truthfully, these points aside, I don't sweat kickers too much. Typically there's not a great difference, FF points-wise, between the #5 kicker and the #20 kicker. It's always a nice when your K blows up but as long as he's connecting on 2-3 PATs and 1-2 FGs per week, I'm satisfied. If my K gets in a rut, I drop him and grab one of the 5 or 6 other decent kickers who are out there on the waiver wire. My three cents, for what they're worth.

1) Totally agree2) Yes well it should become evident at some point during the season which teams tend to lean on their kickers a good bit and if those kickers are in a groove. These are the guys you want to pinpoint with this strategy because they will be down more than 1 week only 23% of the time and more than 2 weeks only 5% of the time.3) There isn't a big difference in the end of the season and average per game but if you could maximize you kickers output without much thought wouldn't you want to? And 3 cents is about how much kickers are worth yes. But......you'd be truly upset if your WR2 put up a 2 but fairly content with a 10 no?I think this strategy can minimize the 2's and maximize the 10's.

 

[shakeybarn]

I have carried multiple kickers multiple times. Either A> when all other positions are fine, and perhaps I want to jump the gun on a gorgeous matchup coming up. But more often than not in a playoff centric league. For example, Rob Bironas (even if we was mediocre) would be on a team in a playoff-centric leagues.

 

[the_Truth]

This is pretty bad logic.

First of all, a kicker who has a bad week is not more likely to do well the next week. His previous game has nothing to do with his next game, if he is a good kicker he will do well with opportunities, but he is not going to get more opportunities one week just because he didn't get any the previous week.

Second, you tried to use statistics to back up your argument which I admire, but you made a couple crucial mistakes.

You used the top 10 kickers at the *end* of the year, there is a selection bias here. Also, 6 points is low for ANY kicker, sportsbooks always put the O/U at 7 or 8, and if you are taking the kickers who happened to do the best in 2007(ended in the top 10), their average is going to be WAY WAY over 6. So of course 77% of them scored over 6 the week after they had a bad game, the ones who didn't "bounce back" wouldn't have made it into your sample of "top 10" kickers.

The problem is we don't know right now what kickers will end up top 10 at the end of the year, there is a lot of randomness involved, so using your "bounce back" strategy will not yield the results that it would if we knew in advance which kickers would end the year in the top 10.

 

[the_Truth]

Also, don't stress too much about kickers its not worth it.

 

[Harjiran]

3) There isn't a big difference in the end of the season and average per game but if you could maximize you kickers output without much thought wouldn't you want to?

Absolutely. And I definitely think your approach carries some weight. But just to clarify -- when you're talking about K's "bouncing back" in weeks following a bad performance, you're really talking about a team's overall poor performance as an offense as opposed to an individual K shanking a bunch of FGs, correct? So I'll need to be able to assess the likelihood of Team X getting their act together after 2 weeks of futility, rather than predicting whether Kicker X will be able to bounce back from the previous week when he missed 3 FGs from inside the 40. In other words, rather than just assuming that Kicker X will bounce back 77% of the time, I need to assess the state of the offense, whether or not that team has made the adjustments necessary to be able to move the ball, which defenses they're going to be playing against, etc. Thus, it may be safe to predict that Rob Bironas will bounce back after a personal poor performance, because I'm assuming that the TEN offense will continue to click, but I might want to think twice before grabbing the Cincinnati Bengals K off waivers because their offense is a mess. Do you agree?

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I might add....

the field they play on and the weather forecast plays a lot of who i might go with from week to week, league to league.

I am not afraid to carry two kickers if I am set everywhere else. a few extra points here or there is sometimes appreciated. I go thru back up te;s and d's as much as kickers some leagues. it just depends but I lost a couple big big games on them darn over time fg,s even just recently. Reed got me the Monday nighter game winner when I was pretty sure I had a win. It might turn out to be the difference between playoffs or not. Go for every point you think you can get. Never know..... Your choice of Dawson or Gould might just determine your season week 15 or 16.

I play em week by week. Favor warm weather ones for second half or high scoreing offenses and really like Praiter this year in distance bonus leagues because of his strong leg and thin air and hi powered offense. But if the forecast is a blizzard or moonsoon or windy out he goes and someone else can celebrate stealing him from me for all I care and enjoy there 1 point that week.

Beleive it or not you can even use kickers as stragety on waivers just as other positions and yes sharks like to make fun of them but they are more important then many make it seem.

I think I just changed my kicker on about 15 teams tonight. lol Even had 2 leagues without a starting qb I had to patch up. (romo and jto)

And to make things worst tonight while 15 leagues of waivers are running DARN COMCAST TURNED OFF MY MFL mail and i need it badly to know which league to get to.

I am gonna be looking for a new servor tmw. If they can't take care of there customers someone else will!

 

[the spanker]

Sigh kickers.....this is all I care about.

1. Strong leg, since my league awards bonus pts for longer kicks

2. Kicks in a dome or warm weather.

3. On better than average offense.

4. Accurate for the most part.

5. Healthy of course.

6. Class dismissed.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Kickers have no place in FF, period !!

 

[Anon]

Past results is no guarentee of future success, but

On Wednesday waivers i take the highest available kicker from the previous weeks kickermania future column (slight adjustments for matchup and possible weather). I follow up on Friday and grab the highest rated kicker in the current weeks kickermania (also adjusting for weather). So far my low week was 6 points, my high week 15, and I am averaging 10.125 points per week.

The best part is, I don't have to think about a kicker at all. I just plug them in then praise or curse Mike Herman as needed.

 

[Largent]

generally I like K's that are on teams with young but talented offenses. Talent to get into the red zone, but young enough they lack in efficiency once there. Lindell is my kicker from here on out despite the "weather" factor....just means more shorter FG's.

 

[the spanker]

generally I like K's that are on teams with young but talented offenses. Talent to get into the red zone, but young enough they lack in efficiency once there. Lindell is my kicker from here on out despite the "weather" factor....just means more shorter FG's.

Hmmm on the contrary I just dropped Lindell and picked up Longwell for that very reason "weather factor."

 

[Perfect Tommy]

This is pretty bad logic.First of all, a kicker who has a bad week is not more likely to do well the next week. His previous game has nothing to do with his next game, if he is a good kicker he will do well with opportunities, but he is not going to get more opportunities one week just because he didn't get any the previous week.Second, you tried to use statistics to back up your argument which I admire, but you made a couple crucial mistakes. You used the top 10 kickers at the *end* of the year, there is a selection bias here. Also, 6 points is low for ANY kicker, sportsbooks always put the O/U at 7 or 8, and if you are taking the kickers who happened to do the best in 2007(ended in the top 10), their average is going to be WAY WAY over 6. So of course 77% of them scored over 6 the week after they had a bad game, the ones who didn't "bounce back" wouldn't have made it into your sample of "top 10" kickers.The problem is we don't know right now what kickers will end up top 10 at the end of the year, there is a lot of randomness involved, so using your "bounce back" strategy will not yield the results that it would if we knew in advance which kickers would end the year in the top 10.

One more point. The OP suggests that as the season wears on we will have a good idea of which kickers will end up in or near the top 10 and therefore will have the bounceback theory apply. That is also bad logic. These are the kickers who would have had selection bias if we look at how the bounceback theory would have done up until now. The next week is still uncertain and having just had a bad week is not a reason to believe they will have a good week.

 

[jimmy b]

Nice post.....we have to carry punters in my league....Got Stats

 

[gman74]

Nice post.....we have to carry punters in my league....Got Stats

 

[chris1969]

Step 1) Identify the top 3-4 kickers that you really want in the second half of the season, but don't draft them.

Step 2) Draft a kicker that should do well early and has a late bye week.

Step 3) Pick up 1 of those guys from Step 1 as soon as they are waived, provided their performance matches your projections.

Is this really that hard for most people?