Dirty Hairy
Footballguy
I want to discuss the phenomena know as the 'Waldman Effect". Basically Waldman comes out with his predraft assessment of rookies.
How much of an impact does Waldman have on the subsequent fantasy draft results?
You would think, actual NFL draft results would carry more weight plus the situation players are drafted into. I'm suggesting that even though these items carry the most weight, there are situations where Waldman's assessments carry a disproportionate weight.
In general, fantasy draft order for a position is highly correlated to the NFL draft order for a position. There are tweaks for situations more favorable than others, but in general the NFL teams draft for position of need and quality/type of player and fantasy drafters follow this logic within a position. This premise is based upon general observations over a number of years, not statistical research.
So I propose that Waldman's predraft ranking has a disproportionate roll in deciding fantasy draft orders.
My Example: Cedric Peerman, drafted 6.12 in the NFL draft by Baltimore, the 12th RB drafted, but drafted as the 8th RB in fantasy drafts, passing Coffee, Goodson, Johnson, Summers and Ringer. The depth chart in Baltimore with McGahee and Rice and Parmele does not provide a favorable situation, quite the opposite.
My argument is that the main reason why fantasy drafters moved Peerman up is because of Waldman's predraft analysis, which was free to all Footballguys this year and is shown below. Does anyone dispute this?
2009 NFL Draft:
1 Moreno, Knowshon 12 Pick 12, Round 1 (12) Broncos
2 Brown, Donald 27 Pick 27, Round 1 (27) Colts
3 Wells, Chris 31 Pick 31, Round 1 (31) Cardinals
4 McCoy, LeSean 53 Pick 21, Round 2 (53) Eagles
5 Greene, Shonn 65 Pick 1, Round 3 (65) Jets
6 Coffee, Glen 74 Pick 10, Round 3 (74) 49ers
7 Goodson, Mike 111 Pick 11, Round 4 (111) Panthers
8 Brown, Andre 129 Pick 29, Round 4 (129) Giants
9 Johnson, Gartrell 134 Pick 34, Round 4 (134) Chargers
10 Summers, Frank 169 Pick 33, Round 5 (169) Steelers
11 Ringer, Javon 173 Pick 37, Round 5 (173) Titans
12 Peerman, Cedric 185 Pick 12, Round 6 (185) Ravens
13 Brown, Aaron 192 Pick 19, Round 6 (192) Lions
14 Davis, James 195 Pick 22, Round 6 (195) Browns
15 Scott, Bernard 209 Pick 36, Round 6 (209) Bengals
16 Ogbonnaya, Chris 211 Pick 2, Round 7 (211) Rams
17 Williams, Javarris 212 Pick 3, Round 7 (212) Chiefs
18 Vakapuna, Fui 215 Pick 6, Round 7 (215) Bengals
19 Stephens-Howling, LaRod 240 Pick 31, Round 7 (240) Cardinals
20 Jennings, Rashad 250 Pick 41, Round 7 (250) Jaguars
59 Zealot leagues - average draft position:
Knowshon Moreno - RB 59 1.3 1 3
Chris Wells - RB 59 2.6 1 5
Donald Brown - RB 59 3.4 1 6
LeSean McCoy - RB 59 5.2 2 8
Shonn Greene - RB 59 6.3 2 11
Andre Brown - RB 59 17.5 9 27
Rashad Jennings - RB 59 22.9 9 40
Cedric Peerman - RB 59 24.3 4 57
James Davis - RB 59 26.5 10 44
Glen Coffee - RB 59 26.6 12 45
Gartrell Johnson - RB 59 26.8 11 52
Bernard Scott - RB 59 31.1 9 58
Javon Ringer - RB 58 38.3 14 75
Mike Goodson - RB 56 48.4 17 75
Aaron Brown - RB 29 64.4 33 75
Javarris Williams - RB 33 64.4 26 75
Frank Summers - RB 29 65.2 26 75
Chris Ogbonnaya - RB 30 66.4 25 75
Arian Foster - RB 20 69.1 42 75
L. Step.-How - RB 15 70.9 29 75
Kory Sheets - RB 9 72.3 44 75
Waldman's Predraft Analysis:
Dynasty RB Rank - 3 - Cedric Peerman 85 5-9 216
Upside: The most underrated skill player in this draft. The score is
depressed due to injuries, but I think skill-wise he's nearly
on par with Moreno in terms of vision, and he's faster and
more powerful. I think he has enough upside to be
franchise back. You can get him in round two or three. He’s
Frank Gore’s twin on the football field.
How much of an impact does Waldman have on the subsequent fantasy draft results?
You would think, actual NFL draft results would carry more weight plus the situation players are drafted into. I'm suggesting that even though these items carry the most weight, there are situations where Waldman's assessments carry a disproportionate weight.
In general, fantasy draft order for a position is highly correlated to the NFL draft order for a position. There are tweaks for situations more favorable than others, but in general the NFL teams draft for position of need and quality/type of player and fantasy drafters follow this logic within a position. This premise is based upon general observations over a number of years, not statistical research.
So I propose that Waldman's predraft ranking has a disproportionate roll in deciding fantasy draft orders.
My Example: Cedric Peerman, drafted 6.12 in the NFL draft by Baltimore, the 12th RB drafted, but drafted as the 8th RB in fantasy drafts, passing Coffee, Goodson, Johnson, Summers and Ringer. The depth chart in Baltimore with McGahee and Rice and Parmele does not provide a favorable situation, quite the opposite.
My argument is that the main reason why fantasy drafters moved Peerman up is because of Waldman's predraft analysis, which was free to all Footballguys this year and is shown below. Does anyone dispute this?
2009 NFL Draft:
1 Moreno, Knowshon 12 Pick 12, Round 1 (12) Broncos
2 Brown, Donald 27 Pick 27, Round 1 (27) Colts
3 Wells, Chris 31 Pick 31, Round 1 (31) Cardinals
4 McCoy, LeSean 53 Pick 21, Round 2 (53) Eagles
5 Greene, Shonn 65 Pick 1, Round 3 (65) Jets
6 Coffee, Glen 74 Pick 10, Round 3 (74) 49ers
7 Goodson, Mike 111 Pick 11, Round 4 (111) Panthers
8 Brown, Andre 129 Pick 29, Round 4 (129) Giants
9 Johnson, Gartrell 134 Pick 34, Round 4 (134) Chargers
10 Summers, Frank 169 Pick 33, Round 5 (169) Steelers
11 Ringer, Javon 173 Pick 37, Round 5 (173) Titans
12 Peerman, Cedric 185 Pick 12, Round 6 (185) Ravens
13 Brown, Aaron 192 Pick 19, Round 6 (192) Lions
14 Davis, James 195 Pick 22, Round 6 (195) Browns
15 Scott, Bernard 209 Pick 36, Round 6 (209) Bengals
16 Ogbonnaya, Chris 211 Pick 2, Round 7 (211) Rams
17 Williams, Javarris 212 Pick 3, Round 7 (212) Chiefs
18 Vakapuna, Fui 215 Pick 6, Round 7 (215) Bengals
19 Stephens-Howling, LaRod 240 Pick 31, Round 7 (240) Cardinals
20 Jennings, Rashad 250 Pick 41, Round 7 (250) Jaguars
59 Zealot leagues - average draft position:
Knowshon Moreno - RB 59 1.3 1 3
Chris Wells - RB 59 2.6 1 5
Donald Brown - RB 59 3.4 1 6
LeSean McCoy - RB 59 5.2 2 8
Shonn Greene - RB 59 6.3 2 11
Andre Brown - RB 59 17.5 9 27
Rashad Jennings - RB 59 22.9 9 40
Cedric Peerman - RB 59 24.3 4 57
James Davis - RB 59 26.5 10 44
Glen Coffee - RB 59 26.6 12 45
Gartrell Johnson - RB 59 26.8 11 52
Bernard Scott - RB 59 31.1 9 58
Javon Ringer - RB 58 38.3 14 75
Mike Goodson - RB 56 48.4 17 75
Aaron Brown - RB 29 64.4 33 75
Javarris Williams - RB 33 64.4 26 75
Frank Summers - RB 29 65.2 26 75
Chris Ogbonnaya - RB 30 66.4 25 75
Arian Foster - RB 20 69.1 42 75
L. Step.-How - RB 15 70.9 29 75
Kory Sheets - RB 9 72.3 44 75
Waldman's Predraft Analysis:
Dynasty RB Rank - 3 - Cedric Peerman 85 5-9 216
Upside: The most underrated skill player in this draft. The score is
depressed due to injuries, but I think skill-wise he's nearly
on par with Moreno in terms of vision, and he's faster and
more powerful. I think he has enough upside to be
franchise back. You can get him in round two or three. He’s
Frank Gore’s twin on the football field.
