Black
Footballguy
Matt Waldman just posted his new Dynasty Rankings. Check them out here:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7
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Waldman posts new Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
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Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
And Bowe at 23... barely a #2 dynasty WR.Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Always love to see updated rankings. Nothing too shocking to see here, but these rankings definitely don't fear age.
The only ranking I really take exception to is Orton at QB#13 over Bradford at #15. There's no way I could pull that trigger.
The only ranking I really take exception to is Orton at QB#13 over Bradford at #15. There's no way I could pull that trigger.
I wouldnt mind doing a dynasty startup with 11 people like Matt. Getting Jamaal Charles in the 3rd round and Bowe in the 5th would work for me.And Bowe at 23... barely a #2 dynasty WR.Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Glad to see someone on the staff updating their rankings. Not sure about not having Rodgers as the #1 QB though.
when I looked at the rankings I said the same exact thing...he should be about #6...and with enough carries he would be top 3Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Give him goalline carries and he might be my #1.when I looked at the rankings I said the same exact thing...he should be about #6...and with enough carries he would be top 3Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Where's BGJE? There's a bunch of trash on that list that he's better than, so I'd need some feedback--
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Jimmy Grahm the #7 TE 
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
M. Lynch way under the radar
Sammy Traveller
Footballguy
And he belongs there.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Ryan Fitzpartick not even ranked. Surprising, I think he holds down that job. The Bills need to build around him and get some defense.
squistion
Footballguy
A lot of people have Rodgers at the top, so that didn't raise my eyebrows any. However, as another poster noted, I would never take Orton before Bradford in any Dynasty league. Generally good ratings, but I could quibble over a few more items, like Brandon Lloyd as #14 WR before Holmes, Crabtree, Rice and Marshall.
Sammy Traveller
Footballguy
Really it is way too early. I'm not going to pay attention to dynasty rankings until the day after the NFL draft.
Shutout
Footballguy
well, that's one side of the thoery. The other side is that more carries works against him and results in his best assets that make him so good (the speed, the quick burst) gets slower as he he gets beat up. That's always been the concern with him by coaches; afraid to use him like a workhorse beacuse he's not the biggest guy in the world. I agree with that line of thought because over the long-term, you don't see guys his size last a really long time. Similar to Chris Johnson, can CERTAINLY do it short term, but even CJ isn't the same this year. I wouldn't call it his speed or really be able to put a finger on what it is exactly, but he doesn't look the same this year Could it be overuse and wear and tear? Perhaps.With that being said, I still like him better than he is ranked and, because of age, better than Gore and Turner. DWIL is the tricky one here. I keep having this thought that this guy may be in Indy or Washington or somewhere next year where he may be dominant for a few seasons.when I looked at the rankings I said the same exact thing...he should be about #6...and with enough carries he would be top 3Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Everyone does, and should, except for Waldman.
Deangelo is the same age as Gore though. I agree that he can have a big year next year depending where he goes, but he doesnt have much time left before he turns 30.well, that's one side of the thoery. The other side is that more carries works against him and results in his best assets that make him so good (the speed, the quick burst) gets slower as he he gets beat up. That's always been the concern with him by coaches; afraid to use him like a workhorse beacuse he's not the biggest guy in the world. I agree with that line of thought because over the long-term, you don't see guys his size last a really long time. Similar to Chris Johnson, can CERTAINLY do it short term, but even CJ isn't the same this year. I wouldn't call it his speed or really be able to put a finger on what it is exactly, but he doesn't look the same this year Could it be overuse and wear and tear? Perhaps.With that being said, I still like him better than he is ranked and, because of age, better than Gore and Turner. DWIL is the tricky one here. I keep having this thought that this guy may be in Indy or Washington or somewhere next year where he may be dominant for a few seasons.when I looked at the rankings I said the same exact thing...he should be about #6...and with enough carries he would be top 3Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
squistion
Footballguy
Sorry, misread that didn't see the second not the first time
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Thats my fault, i probably could have worded that better.Sorry, misread that didn't see the second not the first time
It seems you have a "what have you done for me lately" thought proccess.Rice > Foster?
Jason Bourne
Footballguy
Ryan Grant does not make the top-60 RBs?
Big miss imo.
Big miss imo.
Was just about to post the same thing. I know he's coming off a season ending injury, but he's certainly better than several guys near the bottom of the rankings.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think so.Rice > Foster?
Fullback Fro
yesno
Britt looks a little low to me.
squistion
Footballguy
He probably just forgot that one. Easy to do with a player who has been out almost all of the season, particularly if you make your rankings list from current stats rather than the depth chart.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Not me. In my scoring system Foster has almost double Rice's points this season. Thats with both players playing in every game this season, and both in very good situations that frankly should not change much in the near term. Maybe McGahee goes away, but there is still McLain, and whoever replaces McGahee. Maybe Tate comes in, but there is already Derrick Ward playing well in spot duty. Tate probably replaces Ward in that role if he can get past him. I know that we dont want to just look at the fact that Foster has doubled Rice's production in this ONE season for dynasty purposes, but its not like Rice is in a bad situation in Baltimore, and we are talking about double - not just a few points. 284-146 in my league. Thats a huge difference.I think so.Rice > Foster?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Who in their right mind would take Rice over Foster right now?
Crabree, Boldin, Holmes, and Welker over Sidney Rice?
Jackson 14 spots ahead of Maclin?
Coslton #9?
DeAngelo #7?
Knox over St. Johnson and St. Smith (NYG)?! SERIOUSLY?!
Dynasty rankins vary a lot more than re-draft. Interesting to see.
Crabree, Boldin, Holmes, and Welker over Sidney Rice?
Jackson 14 spots ahead of Maclin?
Coslton #9?
DeAngelo #7?
Knox over St. Johnson and St. Smith (NYG)?! SERIOUSLY?!
Dynasty rankins vary a lot more than re-draft. Interesting to see.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
And Bowe at 23... barely a #2 dynasty WR.Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
What second year WR has posted these numbers this year, has the #5 QB throwing to him, and wasn't included?
56 820 8
I don't usually get my panties in a bunch over these ratings but this guy really needs to be included...
...Jeremy Maclin. Give the man a chance, Matt.
56 820 8
I don't usually get my panties in a bunch over these ratings but this guy really needs to be included...
...Jeremy Maclin. Give the man a chance, Matt.
smashingsilver
Footballguy
Uhh, he's on the list as the #24 WR, right behind Dwayne Bowe. Maybe you think he's too low, but I don't think it's unreasonable.
Chimp Magnet
Footballguy
Deangelo over Mendy?
DoubleG
Footballguy
Oh NO HE DI'NT!
Shutout
Footballguy
Could easily be. DWIL has been an elite back at times. Easy for us to forget because this year was a washout but he has been and has been on a team that isn't overly impressive in recent years. As a FA, he could be monstorous in the right situaiton. I can't even begin to imagin the problems he would pose if he wound up with, say, the Colts. In a PPR, his stats would easily be as good as Gore (who people usually universally nail as a steady top 4-5 back every year).I can see the argument of age being used to question DWIL over Mendy because Mendy is of course very talented in his own right, but it APPEARS that Matt doesn't apply the same degree of value to dynasty rankings as a lot of people do (and I tend to agree with him).When you say "dynasty", people so often get into that "Logan's Run" mentality where they think all their players have to be 26 year old studs, but the truth of the matter is that, by and large, I see many more league champions in my dynasty leagues that have older players, not younger. A lot of guys are winning leagues with the Reggie Wayne/Ray Lewis/T.O./Steve Smith guys as uch if not more than the younger guys, so if a player IS older, even by several years, there's a real fine line in how you balance that in a dynasty ranking. I can remember people telling me two years ago that it was time to sell Wayne. People have been selling T.O. for at least three years. But those guys are top 10 WRs and are leading their teams to titles. If I look at Matt's rankings, yeah, I am going to weigh age in based on my own thoughts on this, but at the end of the day, the goal IS STILL to try to win a title in the current season and if a 334 year old WR or a 30 year old RB can help me do that, I value him more than some of these other younger players. I think its a good ranking that puts a premium on consistency and shorter than normal dynasty speculation. It might be a bit conservative for some, but I definitely think it could help people win some leagues next year.Oh NO HE DI'NT!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think he's a better talent and his sitaution is a little more stable. I'm not knocking Foster as it's very close - I'm just not going to over-react based on one season. In 2009 Rice was a top 4 RB, now he's not? See what I mean? Same could happen to Foster and while I don't think he's a one hot wonder, I also don't think he'll be the best RB in football next year.I also play in ppr leagues so that creates some bias as well - although I own Foster in my ppr re-draft and he's been the top back all season..Willis MaGahee is likely gone after this year which doesn't mean that Rice automatically gets the red-zone carries, but I know he's capable of short yardage carries. If Kubiak gets cannned after this season and a new coaching staff comes in an implements a new blocking scheme it could mean trouble for Foster. Foster is a classic one cut and go runner that is perfect for a ZBS. That's not to say he can't be successful in a poer bocking scheme as he's big and strong and can be shifty when needed. Rice is the superior runner though imo so I'd take him if I had to make that choice.It's very close, but I don't see it as outlandish for some one to prefer Rice. There's too much "what have you doen for me lately" mentality in fantasy football sometimes and that can be a dangerous thing in dynatsy leagues. Look at all the people that took Forte and Slaton in the first round of dynasty start-ups following their rookie seasons.Concept Coop said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bear in mind that Matt puts a ton of effort into his RookieScouting Protfiolio and sometimes it's probably hard for him to give up what his thoughts were when scotuing those players. If I remember correctly he was very high on Williams coming out and was kind of cool on Mendenhall coming out. It's only human nature to take some bias into rankings - and at least in this case its his own personal bias based on his initial evaluations.Oh NO HE DI'NT!
Shutout
Footballguy
LOL..Are you talking about me?? I inherited a dynasty with these two guys on the roster last year and, of course, my team is feeling the effects of that quick reaction by the previous owner. Good points all around. A lot can change that could have effects on these guys.I think people are responding as if they expect things to stay the same and the people that are NOT going with Foster, etc, as higher are probably placing a premium of consitency and longivity. I LOVE Foster. Was advocating for him last year and struck gold and so I'm very happy with him and like his prospects going forward. But I certainly couldn't argue with someone who would prefer the AP/MJD route. They have done it for more than one year and that's important to people.
I think you kinda really know what you get with AP/Gor/MJD, and a few others and if you like Foster or Rice, you KINDA know what you're getting but you think there could be more...like one of these guys could be at the beginning of an LT-type FF career for a long time (not to be confused with a Real life type career, just FF production).
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Perhaps I just react to the changing dynamics of a players career a little quicker. The average NFL Running back has a 3-5 year window in which he is on top of his game. Ignoring 1 full year of production is something you should do at your own peril. Chris Johnson is a helluva back but the situation is not getting better anytime soon over there in TN. PERHAPS next year IF Fisher is let go, and IF Young comes back and performs well (has yet to put together a full season) then maybe CJ could get back on top of his game and become a shell of what he was before. He's a significantly bigger risk than someone like ADP (who seems less prone to matchup / box-stacking).Right now I'd bump him down to 2 to 4 range personally. Foster is a dynamic back who's just entered the league and has shown a LOT of promise. Given their two career trajectories, their situations, etc.... I feel Foster is at least on par with CJ3 at this point. It's close... but I'd give Foster the nod.NOTE: This is speaking in context of STANDARD/NON-PPR leagues btwIt seems you have a "what have you done for me lately" thought proccess.Rice > Foster?Frankly I think CJ3 is a bit high
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Thanks for the reminder about BJGE, I simply missed him. To give you guys more to nitpick until there are other rankings to enjoy chewing on, here's a little bit about how I look at rankings. This will hopefully give you a little more perspective.
When I'm ranking 240 players (and really more but we display the top 60 at each position and the top 75 overall), I'm not so concerned with whether player A is over player B in a dynasty ranking. You might be, but that's not my approach.
I'm more concerned about where I tier a player. Since we don't have a function that does that, I can give you a rough estimate of what I'm thinking as tiers is a rough (very rough) pyramid shape.
The Elite tier is roughly the first 2-3 players
The Starter 1 is roughly the 8-13 after the Elite
The Starter 2 is roughly 12-26 after the Starter 1
The Starter 3 is roughly the 15-30 after the starter 3
The groupings get larger as I get further into backups, practice squad players and free agents.
I also tend to place less weight on lifespan for dynasty leagues. If there's a player that's 27-28 and he's about to leave his team and likely for much better environs (DeAngelo Williams) then he might be done as an RB1 in two years, but even if your goal is to build the 70s Steelers, or 80s 49ers you still need a mix of great vets that have 2-3 years left and young players that mature as a core and stay for 8-10 seasons.
I don't believe in downgrading a player with 2-3 years of very good production left in him. One year? I'll make very few exceptions, but if the guy has 2-3 years from my perspective then I'm not dinging him.
Therefore if player A is ranked one spot over B and it's within 5-10 picks, you can nitpick whether they are in relation to each other, but in the reality of how I do this work those tiers are fluid enough that on a given day or week I'd agree with you.
What's more important is whether I have player A and B in one tier and player C in another. For instance, James Starks and Edgar Bennett have vaulted to much higher tiers many might expect.
Hope that helps. Keep nitpicking.
When I'm ranking 240 players (and really more but we display the top 60 at each position and the top 75 overall), I'm not so concerned with whether player A is over player B in a dynasty ranking. You might be, but that's not my approach.
I'm more concerned about where I tier a player. Since we don't have a function that does that, I can give you a rough estimate of what I'm thinking as tiers is a rough (very rough) pyramid shape.
The Elite tier is roughly the first 2-3 players
The Starter 1 is roughly the 8-13 after the Elite
The Starter 2 is roughly 12-26 after the Starter 1
The Starter 3 is roughly the 15-30 after the starter 3
The groupings get larger as I get further into backups, practice squad players and free agents.
I also tend to place less weight on lifespan for dynasty leagues. If there's a player that's 27-28 and he's about to leave his team and likely for much better environs (DeAngelo Williams) then he might be done as an RB1 in two years, but even if your goal is to build the 70s Steelers, or 80s 49ers you still need a mix of great vets that have 2-3 years left and young players that mature as a core and stay for 8-10 seasons.
I don't believe in downgrading a player with 2-3 years of very good production left in him. One year? I'll make very few exceptions, but if the guy has 2-3 years from my perspective then I'm not dinging him.
Therefore if player A is ranked one spot over B and it's within 5-10 picks, you can nitpick whether they are in relation to each other, but in the reality of how I do this work those tiers are fluid enough that on a given day or week I'd agree with you.
What's more important is whether I have player A and B in one tier and player C in another. For instance, James Starks and Edgar Bennett have vaulted to much higher tiers many might expect.
Hope that helps. Keep nitpicking.
doowain
Footballguy
Not that hard to believe. While things should've shifted some, I did this exact thing in Backyard Brawl IV this year.I wouldnt mind doing a dynasty startup with 11 people like Matt. Getting Jamaal Charles in the 3rd round and Bowe in the 5th would work for me.And Bowe at 23... barely a #2 dynasty WR.Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
doowain
Footballguy
While the Colts run D is certainly not stellar, last night's game showed just how important Kenny Britt is to that team. Not just opening up things for the running game with his receiving skills, but he proved how great of a blocker he is. CJ3 finally had some holes and Britt's block on CJ3's 37 yard run was a thing of beauty to me.Perhaps I just react to the changing dynamics of a players career a little quicker. The average NFL Running back has a 3-5 year window in which he is on top of his game. Ignoring 1 full year of production is something you should do at your own peril. Chris Johnson is a helluva back but the situation is not getting better anytime soon over there in TN. PERHAPS next year IF Fisher is let go, and IF Young comes back and performs well (has yet to put together a full season) then maybe CJ could get back on top of his game and become a shell of what he was before. He's a significantly bigger risk than someone like ADP (who seems less prone to matchup / box-stacking).Right now I'd bump him down to 2 to 4 range personally. Foster is a dynamic back who's just entered the league and has shown a LOT of promise. Given their two career trajectories, their situations, etc.... I feel Foster is at least on par with CJ3 at this point. It's close... but I'd give Foster the nod.NOTE: This is speaking in context of STANDARD/NON-PPR leagues btwIt seems you have a "what have you done for me lately" thought proccess.Rice > Foster?
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Go Deep - I hear that every year...And after that experience, I usually hear "I hate drafting next to him."Not that hard to believe. While things should've shifted some, I did this exact thing in Backyard Brawl IV this year.I wouldnt mind doing a dynasty startup with 11 people like Matt. Getting Jamaal Charles in the 3rd round and Bowe in the 5th would work for me.And Bowe at 23... barely a #2 dynasty WR.Deangelo Williams, Gore and Turner all higher than Charles.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Just to bump this one more quick time before the frenzy
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Insoxicated
Oh I agree 100% that britt is essential. The problem is a lot of CJs value last year was in late game hammering away by Fisher (players coach up until recently). Young has not proven able to survive a season mentally or physically. Collins is getting older and there are no other options on the table. I have owned CJ3 in my dynasty league since his rookie season, I live in TN and have watched every Titans game since he's joined the league. Forget the box scores....He's simply not showing the same spark or hunger this year that he had in past. Best case... the situation evolves and something motivates him to get back in gear. Worst case... the TN situation remains in limbo/stagnant for the next year or two and the prime window of CJs career is muted due to an ineffective offense as a whole and inept QB play. Im by no means calling the guy a bust... nor saying he needs to fall out of the top ten. I just no longer feel he's worthy of the #1 slot in a Dynasty draft any longer. Keep in mind that prior to the start of this season I was vocal an advocate as there was on this board as to CJs being worth of a #1 rankings. (see the CJ thread on page 2). My optimism has been cut back a touch.
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